Century Aluminum 2026 Guidance Holds as US Smelter Restart Supports Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance remains unchanged as the US primary aluminium producer continues to ramp idled and disrupted capacity in South Carolina and Iceland. The company maintained its full-year shipment target of 630,000t of primary aluminium.

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance is being supported by the restart of more than 50,000t of idled capacity at the Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina. The restart began on 16 April, and the plant is expected to return to full production by the end of June.

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance also depends on the recovery of the Nordural aluminium smelter in Iceland after an electrical equipment failure in October 2025. The company expects the facility to return to nearly full production by the end of July.

First-quarter shipments fell by 27% from a year earlier to 122,865t. However, revenue rose by 2.4% to $649.2mn, supported by stronger realised aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange and higher regional premiums.

Mt Holly Restart Adds Domestic Aluminium During Supply Disruption

Mt Holly produced 40,000t of aluminium in the first quarter, down 4.8% from a year earlier. The restart of idled capacity should increase output through the second quarter and strengthen domestic US supply.

The timing is important. The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted Middle East aluminium production and exports, tightening supply availability for western buyers.

Century has already placed volumes from the Mt Holly expansion with US customers. This shows that domestic primary aluminium is gaining strategic value as buyers seek supply outside disrupted maritime and regional trade routes.

The Mt Holly restart also fits the wider US policy environment. Higher Section 232 aluminium tariffs have made domestic primary aluminium production more attractive and encouraged investment in US capacity.

For downstream users, additional Mt Holly volumes can support packaging, automotive, construction, aerospace and industrial supply chains that need reliable domestic metal.

Iceland Recovery and Oklahoma Project Shape Growth Outlook

Nordural remains the key recovery asset outside the US. The Icelandic smelter produced only 29,000t in the first quarter, down 61% from a year earlier after the October electrical equipment failure.

Century expects Nordural to return to nearly full output by the end of July. That recovery is essential if the company is to meet its unchanged shipment guidance.

The company is also moving toward a larger strategic expansion. It expects to make a final investment decision and break ground by year-end on its joint Oklahoma smelter project with Emirates Global Aluminium.

That project would strengthen US primary aluminium capacity at a time when domestic supply security is becoming more important to industrial policy. It also links Century to EGA, one of the world’s major aluminium producers.

Century’s first-quarter profit increased sharply to $337.5mn from $29.7mn a year earlier. The result was boosted by the $287.9mn sale of its Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data centre infrastructure developer TeraWulf and a $33mn insurance gain related to the Iceland equipment failure.

The financial result therefore includes major one-time benefits. The operating story remains focused on whether Mt Holly and Nordural can ramp smoothly and whether the Oklahoma project can move from planning to execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s unchanged guidance shows how valuable restart capacity has become in a disrupted aluminium market. The strategic question is whether US primary aluminium can move from temporary supply support to a durable investment cycle built around power, tariffs and domestic industrial demand.

Alcoa Norway Aluminium Smelter Expansion Adds Low-Carbon Recycling Capacity

ALCOA

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion will increase output at the company’s Mosjøen facility while adding new recycling and alloy-casting capabilities. The US aluminium producer plans to invest $65mn to upgrade the Norwegian smelter’s cast house.

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion is expected to add up to 75,000t of capacity to Mosjøen’s existing 200,000 t/yr production base. The project will be completed in phases, with commissioning and ramp-up scheduled through 2028.

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion is strategically important because European customers are seeking lower-carbon aluminium with stronger recycled-content credentials. Automotive and packaging buyers are increasingly asking suppliers to meet tighter sustainability and traceability requirements.

The project will allow Alcoa to use post-consumer recycled aluminium at Mosjøen for the first time. That marks a shift from conventional primary output toward a more flexible primary-and-recycled production platform.

Cast House Upgrade Broadens Alloy and Ingot Capability

Alcoa will upgrade Mosjøen’s cast house as the core of the expansion. Planned improvements include a new open-mold foundry casting line and additional melting furnaces.

These upgrades will allow the smelter to produce a broader range of foundry alloys. They will also expand the range of ingot sizes and formats available to customers.

That flexibility matters for downstream users. Automotive, packaging and industrial customers often require specific alloy chemistries, product formats and recycled-content profiles.

The addition of post-consumer recycled aluminium also improves Mosjøen’s ability to serve customers that want lower embedded carbon and more circular material flows. Recycled aluminium can significantly reduce energy intensity compared with primary production.

For Alcoa, the investment strengthens product differentiation. The company can offer not only low-carbon Norwegian smelter output, but also recycled-content ingot and cast alloy options.

Norway Strengthens Europe’s Low-Carbon Aluminium Base

Mosjøen’s location gives the project a strong sustainability profile. Norway’s power system supports lower-carbon aluminium production, making the smelter strategically valuable for European customers.

Alcoa said the increased capacity and recycling capability position Mosjøen as a cornerstone of low-carbon aluminium supply across Europe. That message reflects the market’s shift toward greener metal, not just more metal.

European aluminium buyers are facing tighter carbon, origin and supply-chain expectations. Automotive manufacturers need lightweight materials with credible sustainability claims, while packaging producers are under pressure to increase recycled content.

The project also strengthens Europe’s aluminium supply resilience. New capacity at an existing low-carbon smelter reduces reliance on more carbon-intensive or geopolitically exposed supply routes.

The expansion does not represent a completely new smelter build. Instead, it upgrades an established asset with additional casting, melting and recycling flexibility.

That approach is practical. It adds capacity and product capability without the longer timeline and higher execution risk of a greenfield primary aluminium project.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alcoa’s Mosjøen investment shows that the next phase of aluminium competitiveness is about carbon profile, recycling capability and product flexibility. European customers will increasingly reward suppliers that can combine low-carbon power, recycled feedstock and qualified alloy formats.

Alcoa Shifts Focus to Aluminium Production with Alumina Cuts in 2025

Alcoa

US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to cut alumina output and ramp up aluminium production in 2025. In its annual report, released on January 22, Alcoa revealed it had met its production targets for 2024, producing 10 million tons of alumina and 2.2 million tons of aluminium. While aluminium production grew by 4.8% from 2023, alumina output fell by 2.9%. This strategic move highlights Alcoa's ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions and operational challenges.

Alumina Production Cuts Continue into 2025

For 2025, Alcoa expects alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons, marking the second consecutive year of output reductions. The company had previously halted operations at its Kwinana plant in Western Australia, which had a capacity of 2.2 million tons per year. This decision followed a combination of high operating costs, the plant's age, and soaring bauxite prices. As a result, Alcoa plans to continue sourcing alumina externally, a strategy it began in 2024 to fulfill customer orders and maintain supply chain efficiency.

Aluminium Production Growth Driven by Plant Resumptions

On the aluminium front, Alcoa saw significant growth, increasing its output by 4.8% in 2024. This increase was driven in part by the resumption of operations at its Warrick and Alumar joint venture smelters in the US and Brazil, which had been inactive for years. In 2025, Alcoa forecasts aluminium production to rise further to between 2.6 million and 2.8 million tons, as these plants continue to scale up operations. The company’s aluminium output is expected to remain steady through 2024, with quarterly production gradually increasing.

Alcoa Looks Ahead with Positive Aluminium Price Outlook

Alcoa's financial outlook for 2025 is further supported by the positive trend in aluminium prices. The London Metal Exchange's aluminium cash price rose from $2,110 per ton to $2,611 per ton over the past year, reflecting growing demand. Additionally, the removal of the tax rebate on commodities, including aluminium, by China in December 2024 is expected to further elevate prices, benefiting Alcoa's bottom line.

Amag Aluminium Earnings Fall as Tariffs and Weak Automotive Demand Pressure Margins

Amag Aluminium

Amag aluminium earnings fell in 2025 as weaker shipments, US trade tariffs, and soft European automotive demand weighed on performance. The Austrian downstream aluminium producer reported a 23.5pc decline in Ebitda to €137mn, despite a modest increase in revenue.

Revenues rose by 2.1pc to €1.48bn, supported by higher London Metal Exchange aluminium prices. However, total shipments fell by 1.7pc to 417,600t, while external shipments declined by 2pc to 382,000t. This shows that higher metal prices helped protect sales value but did not offset the pressure on operating earnings.

Amag aluminium earnings also faced headwinds from lower premiums, a stronger euro-dollar exchange rate, and tariff effects across the company’s divisions. The result highlights the difficult position of European downstream aluminium producers, which must manage weak regional demand, high costs, and uncertain trade conditions.

Automotive Weakness Hits Casting and Rolling Performance

Amag’s casting division improved productivity but continued to face weak demand from the European automotive industry. US trade tariffs also affected performance, adding another layer of pressure to already fragile customer demand.

The rolling division faced similar challenges in automotive applications. Sales weakened in the automotive sector, although industrial applications and packaging showed stronger demand. This mixed performance reflects a broader split in downstream aluminium markets, where packaging and industrial uses remain more resilient than vehicle-related consumption.

High energy and personnel costs at Amag’s Ranshofen site further compressed margins. This is a major structural issue for European aluminium processors, especially as competition from lower-cost regions remains intense and customers continue to push for cost control.

Higher Aluminium Prices Limit the Earnings Decline

Higher LME aluminium prices helped limit the fall in Amag aluminium earnings. Average LME aluminium prices were 7.4pc higher than in 2024, supporting revenue even as shipment volumes declined.

However, lower premiums reduced the benefit of stronger aluminium prices, particularly in the metal division. The division also faced weaker shipments and exchange-rate pressure, showing that price gains alone cannot fully protect margins when premiums, volumes, and currency conditions move against producers.

Amag declined to provide an earnings forecast for 2026 because market conditions remain challenging. Still, the company pointed to some positive signs from economic forecasts, sentiment, customs arrangements, and order intake. Overall aluminium demand is expected to rise, but rolled aluminium demand in Europe is likely to remain weak.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Amag’s results show that European downstream aluminium remains caught between price support and weak industrial demand. The key risk is that tariffs and high operating costs continue to erode competitiveness even if broader aluminium consumption improves.

India Aluminium Wire Rod Imports Face CVD Sunset Review on Malaysian Supply

India's Trade

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia are under renewed trade scrutiny after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies started a sunset review of existing countervailing duties. The review comes ahead of the current duty’s expiry on 23 September.

India aluminium wire rod imports are strategically important because wire rod is a key semi-finished aluminium product for electrical conductors, cables, industrial wire and downstream manufacturing. Domestic producers argue that subsidised Malaysian supply could continue or recur if the duty expires.

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia have been subject to countervailing duties since September 2021. The original levy followed a probe launched in June 2020 into alleged government subsidies supporting Malaysian producers.

Hindalco Industries, Vedanta and Bharat Aluminium Company filed the application that triggered the review. DGTR said the applicants represent a majority of India’s domestic output of the product covered by the duty.

Domestic Producers Warn of Subsidy and Trade Diversion Risk

The review covers aluminium wire and rod in coil form with diameters of 9-13mm. These products are used across electrical, cable and industrial supply chains, making them important to India’s aluminium downstream sector.

The applicants argue that Malaysian producers continue to benefit from government support. They identified 64 subsidy programmes, including 23 from the original investigation and 41 new schemes.

The alleged support includes tax breaks, export grants, preferential financing and below-market land and power rates. If confirmed, these measures could allow Malaysian producers to offer aluminium wire rod at artificially competitive levels.

Indian producers warned that removing the duty could harm the domestic industry. Their concern is that subsidised imports would pressure local pricing, reduce utilisation and weaken investment confidence in downstream aluminium capacity.

The case also includes a wider trade-flow risk. Recent increases in US Section 232 aluminium tariffs could divert Malaysian export volumes away from the US and toward India if the CVD lapses.

This matters because aluminium trade measures in one region can quickly reshape flows elsewhere. When one market becomes harder to access, exporters often look for alternative destinations with weaker trade barriers.

Review Could Shape India’s Downstream Aluminium Protection

The period of investigation for the sunset review is July 2024-December 2025. DGTR will assess whether the duty should be extended, modified or withdrawn.

Exporters, importers, users and the Malaysian government have been invited to submit comments through DGTR’s SETU portal. Their responses will help determine whether subsidised imports remain a material risk.

The outcome will matter for India’s aluminium value chain. Domestic producers want protection from subsidised competition, while downstream users may focus on supply availability and input cost.

India has been trying to strengthen local manufacturing across metals, electrical infrastructure and industrial materials. Maintaining fair competition in aluminium wire rod supports that policy direction, especially as demand grows from power transmission, cables, construction and manufacturing.

However, trade protection also needs balance. If duties raise input costs too much, downstream processors can become less competitive. The review will need to weigh domestic producer protection against the needs of users that rely on wire rod supply.

The case shows how aluminium is becoming more exposed to trade policy. Tariffs, subsidies, countervailing duties and regional trade diversion are now central to market positioning, not secondary issues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s CVD review shows that aluminium downstream products are becoming part of a wider trade-defence strategy. The key issue is whether India can protect domestic wire rod capacity without raising costs for cable, conductor and electrical manufacturing supply chains.

UAE’s EGA Faces Bauxite Shipment Suspension from Guinea Amid Global Aluminium Market Disruptions

EGA

The global aluminium industry is facing renewed uncertainty as Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), a UAE-based company, confirmed the suspension of bauxite shipments from its Guinea Alumina subsidiary. The halt was enacted by Guinean customs officials, who have yet to provide an explanation or a timeline for the resumption of exports. EGA has stated that, for now, the stoppage will not impact operations at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE, a key link in the supply chain for aluminium production.

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) responded swiftly to the news, surging 3.73% to reach $2,653.50 per tonne, marking a significant movement in the day’s trading session. This price increase adds to a year of volatility in the alumina market, driven by repeated supply interruptions. "We are seeking clarity from customs on the reason for this action and are working to resolve this as quickly as possible," said an EGA representative.

Rising Aluminium Prices and Global Supply Chain Concerns

The bauxite shipment suspension from Guinea follows a series of disruptions in alumina production worldwide, which have collectively placed pressure on the aluminium market. In Australia, US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to fully halt alumina production at its Kwinana refinery, which has an annual capacity of 2.2 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China has seen its own limitations on alumina production this year, further tightening global supply.

These restrictions come as the aluminium industry navigates increasing demand for lightweight metals in various sectors, from construction to electronics, adding to price pressures. Market analysts suggest that such supply chain interruptions could lead to sustained high prices for aluminium if production does not stabilize soon.

Mercedes bets on green aluminium from Norway's Hydro for next-gen CLA

Mercedes aluminium body

Mercedes is turning to green aluminium from Norway's Hydro to cut embedded emissions in its new CLA model. The green aluminium from Norway's Hydro is certified at just 3kg of CO₂ per kilogram of metal across mining, refining, smelting and casting. This compares with a global average of 16.7kg, giving Mercedes a meaningful reduction in material-related emissions. The alloy also contains 25pc post-consumer scrap, which further lowers its lifecycle footprint and supports circular-economy targets.

However, the company’s claim that CLA production is “net carbon-neutral” still depends on offsets. Mercedes powers the plant with 100pc renewable electricity, mainly externally sourced hydropower, which materially cuts scope 2 emissions. But scope 1 emissions from on-site processes and logistics, as well as upstream emissions from suppliers, remain. Therefore, the move to green aluminium from Norway's Hydro is a genuine step forward, even if the overall net-zero claim rests partly on controversial offset mechanisms that investors often scrutinise.

Green aluminium supports low-carbon steel and battery initiatives

The CLA’s use of green aluminium from Norway's Hydro forms part of a broader materials decarbonisation strategy. Mercedes says its latest battery cell design cuts emissions by about 30pc per cell through renewable energy in anode and cathode production. The company also relies on “net carbon-neutral” cell manufacturing at suppliers, since it does not produce cells in-house. As a result, the true impact depends on supplier practices and verification of their renewable power usage.

Meanwhile, Mercedes is layering in low-carbon steel to tackle emissions in chassis and body-in-white applications. The CLA incorporates steel from US producer Nucor’s Econiq-RE range, made using 100pc renewable energy. Mercedes also has a deal with Steel Dynamics for more than 50,000 t/yr of CO₂-reduced steel for its Tuscaloosa plant. Together with green aluminium from Norway's Hydro, these supply contracts show how OEMs are weaponising procurement to reduce embodied carbon ahead of incoming carbon border measures.

Demand for certified green aluminium rises faster than headline prices

Demand for certified low-carbon aluminium is rising as automakers prepare for tighter climate regulations and potential carbon border charges. Carmakers want to cut embedded emissions at the material level, especially for high-intensity metals such as aluminium and steel. This is likely to support growing premiums for Hydro’s Reduxa-style green aluminium grades and similar products from competitors. As a result, upstream smelters with renewable power and high scrap usage gain a strategic pricing advantage.

However, headline aluminium prices on global exchanges remain relatively stable despite bullish long-term forecasts. London Metal Exchange cash aluminium has traded in a narrow range over the past year, even as demand for differentiated “green” material accelerates. This suggests that the value is migrating into contract premiums and long-term offtake deals instead of the base price. Over time, producers unable to demonstrate low-carbon credentials may find themselves pushed into a discounted “grey” segment of the market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercedes’ partnership around green aluminium from Norway's Hydro shows how decarbonisation is increasingly driven by procurement, not just tailpipe regulation. For metals producers, the message is clear: access to cheap renewable power and high-quality scrap streams will shape competitiveness more than pure tonnage growth. As carbon accounting tightens, the premium for verifiable low-carbon tonnes is likely to widen, rewarding early movers across the aluminium value chain.

Alcoa Western Australia Alumina Output Cut After Cyclone Narelle Gas Disruption

Alcoa Western Australia

Alcoa Western Australia alumina production was reduced after Cyclone Narelle disrupted domestic gas supply to the company’s Pinjarra and Wagerup refineries. The US aluminium producer temporarily lowered process flow rates at both facilities because of gas supply constraints in Western Australia.

The disruption followed Cyclone Narelle’s impact on key offshore and onshore gas infrastructure. Western Australia’s LNG and domestic gas systems faced interruptions after the cyclone passed over major production facilities.

Alcoa Western Australia alumina operations are important to the global aluminium value chain because alumina is the essential feedstock for primary aluminium smelting. Any sustained refinery disruption could affect alumina availability, regional pricing, and downstream aluminium supply planning.

Gas Supply Disruption Hits Alumina Refining Operations

Alumina refining depends heavily on reliable energy supply. Refineries require heat and process energy to convert bauxite into alumina, making gas availability a direct operational risk in Western Australia.

Alcoa said it had temporarily reduced process flow rates at Pinjarra and Wagerup, but it did not provide a timeline for returning to normal operations. That uncertainty will keep buyers and traders focused on the duration of the gas disruption.

Woodside Energy reported an interruption at the Karratha Gas Plant on 27 March. Chevron also took the Wheatstone facility offline on 26 March and said it would take weeks to return to full production after cyclone damage.

Weather Risk Adds Pressure to Aluminium Raw Material Supply

Alcoa Western Australia alumina output cuts show how weather events can quickly affect the aluminium supply chain. The issue is not bauxite availability, but the energy infrastructure needed to keep refining assets running.

Western Australia is a major alumina-producing region, and refinery curtailments can influence sentiment in the broader raw material market. If gas supply remains constrained, buyers may reassess short-term alumina availability and logistics risk.

The disruption also reinforces the importance of energy resilience for metals processing. As extreme weather affects ports, gas plants, power systems, and industrial sites, producers will need stronger contingency planning for critical inputs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alcoa’s refinery cuts show that alumina supply risk can emerge from energy infrastructure, not only mining or refinery equipment. For aluminium producers, secure and resilient power and gas supply is becoming a core competitiveness factor.

Constellium Record Earnings Highlight North American Aluminium Tightness

Constellium

Constellium record earnings in the first quarter show how favourable North American aluminium market conditions are lifting margins even when shipment volumes remain flat. The France-based downstream aluminium producer reported segment-adjusted Ebitda of $359mn, up 93% from a year earlier.

The company’s revenue rose by 24% to $2.5bn in January-March, while total shipments slipped by 1% to 370,000t. This split matters because Constellium’s performance was driven less by volume growth and more by pricing, product mix, recycling economics and supply shortages in key end markets.

Constellium record earnings were strongest in packaging and automotive rolled products, where North American supply tightness created better commercial conditions. Aerospace and transport also improved, supported by stronger customer activity and rising shipments.

The result reinforces a broader aluminium market theme. Downstream producers with qualified capacity, scrap access and exposure to higher-value products can benefit even in a volatile macroeconomic environment.

Automotive Rolled Products and Recycling Margins Lift North America

Constellium’s packaging and automotive rolled products division delivered the largest earnings improvement. Ebitda rose by 152% on the year to $151mn, while revenue increased by 24% to $1.48bn.

Shipments in the division fell by 3% to 261,000t. The earnings gain despite lower volumes shows that market conditions, not only tonnage, shaped the quarter.

North America was the key driver. Constellium benefited from a supply shortage in automotive rolled products, which improved pricing power and margins for qualified suppliers.

Automotive aluminium supply remains highly sensitive to qualification, product consistency and availability. Automakers cannot easily switch suppliers for body sheet, structural materials or specialised rolled products without approvals and technical validation.

This gives established producers an advantage when supply tightens. Customers need reliable metal, not simply the lowest-cost material.

Constellium also benefited from better US recycling margins. Trade tariffs affected aluminium products but not scrap, improving the relative economics of recycled inputs.

That detail is important. Scrap access can become a margin advantage when tariffs, regional premiums and product shortages reshape the aluminium value chain.

Recycling also supports lower-carbon aluminium supply. Customers in automotive, packaging and industrial markets increasingly need recycled content, traceability and regional supply resilience.

The first-quarter result therefore shows how recycling and trade policy can reinforce each other. Tariffs changed product economics, while scrap availability gave Constellium a stronger cost position.

Aerospace and Transport Demand Strengthens Product Mix

Constellium’s aerospace and transport division also performed strongly. Ebitda rose by 24% to $102mn, while revenue increased by 30% to $609mn.

Shipments in the segment rose by 18% to 60,000t. This was the clearest volume-growth signal across the company’s business units.

The aerospace recovery matters because aircraft programmes need qualified aluminium plate, sheet and extrusions. These materials support structural components, fuselage sections, wings, transport systems and lightweight design.

Aerospace aluminium demand is also tied to long customer approval cycles. Once a supplier is qualified, stable production and delivery reliability become strategically valuable.

The automotive structures and industry division posted Ebitda of $24mn, up 50% from a year earlier. Revenue rose by 9% to $415mn, while shipments fell by 3% to 51,000t.

This again shows the importance of mix and margin. Constellium improved earnings even where volumes declined, suggesting stronger commercial discipline and better end-market positioning.

The company raised its 2026 adjusted Ebitda guidance to $900mn-940mn. Chief executive Ingrid Joerg said macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains, but the company is optimistic about its end-market positioning.

Constellium record earnings therefore point to a market where quality of exposure matters more than headline volume. Packaging, automotive rolled products, aerospace and recycling-linked margins are driving performance.

For the aluminium sector, the message is clear. Supply shortages, tariffs, scrap economics and aerospace recovery are reshaping profitability across downstream producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Constellium’s quarter shows that aluminium value is moving toward qualified products, regional supply and recycling economics. The strongest performers will be producers that can combine technical approvals, scrap access and exposure to tight North American end markets.

Rusal's 2024 Earnings Surge Despite Sanctions and Market Headwinds

Rusal

Aluminium giant increases EBITDA by 90% amid sanctions, falling costs, and domestic market pivot

Russia’s top aluminium producer Rusal reported a dramatic earnings increase in 2024, despite facing international sanctions and weak global demand. The company’s EBITDA soared to $1.49 billion, a 90% jump year-on-year, thanks to lower production costs and a strategic pivot to domestic markets.

Rusal’s revenues dipped slightly by 1.1% to $12.08 billion, but net profits surged to $803 million, up from $282 million in 2023. The producer boosted aluminium output to 3.99 million tonnes, up 3.7%, and alumina production by 25% to 6.43 million tonnes.

Notably, Rusal acquired a 30% stake in Hebei Wenfeng New Materials in late 2023, securing access to 1.4 million tonnes per year of alumina in China’s Hebei province. The company also lifted bauxite output by 18.8% to 15.89 million tonnes.

Sanctions Drive Market Realignment

In April 2024, the US and UK banned exchange-traded Russian aluminium, copper, and nickel, barring imports and services tied to these metals. The London Metal Exchange (LME) subsequently banned Russian-origin metals from its warehouses, intensifying pressure on Rusal.

Despite these barriers, Rusal successfully reorganized its export channels and expanded domestic sales, minimizing disruption. The company also lowered its overall cost of sales by 11.3%, aided by falling raw material and energy costs.

Aluminium prices rose 3.3% on average in 2024, while alumina prices surged nearly 47% due to global supply constraints.

Outlook Remains Cautious

Rusal noted that the global aluminium industry remained under pressure from volatile input prices, sluggish demand, and high interest rates. Yet, by shifting to local markets and improving operational efficiency, the company weathered macroeconomic turbulence and reinforced its production base.

Japan and South Korea Prepare for Economic Impact of US Metal Tariffs

Japan Manufacturing

Japan Takes a Cautious Approach, While South Korea Moves Quickly to Shield Its Automotive Industry

The imposition of US tariffs on metal products has left Japanese and South Korean industries scrambling to mitigate potential damages. Following US President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs, Japan’s metal firms are proceeding with caution. Tokyo is currently working on a strategy to strike a middle ground while preparing for any potential long-term effects. South Korea, on the other hand, has moved quickly to put measures in place to support its automotive industry, which stands to be significantly impacted by the tariffs.

Japan's Response to US Tariffs

In 2024, Japanese exports of machinery and electrical equipment to the US amounted to ¥7.8 trillion ($53 billion), reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year. Despite this growth, Japan's metal industry is not experiencing significant immediate impact from the new 24% tariffs imposed on steel and automobile products. However, companies are still closely monitoring the situation to understand the full extent of the potential damages. While some industry leaders remain uncertain, one Tokyo-based battery material producer noted that no damage had been reported yet from clients. Still, Japanese authorities are wary of long-term effects, especially in sectors like electronics and automotive, which would face major setbacks should the tariffs persist.

The Japanese government is refraining from retaliatory measures as negotiations with the US government continue. Japan hopes to reach an agreement that could either reduce the tariffs or potentially exempt the country from them entirely. On April 8, Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (METI) will hold a ministerial meeting to discuss comprehensive measures in response to the tariffs.

South Korea Takes Swift Action to Support Its Economy

South Korea, with a more direct approach, is preparing to unveil measures aimed at mitigating the negative effects on its automotive sector. In 2024, South Korea exported $127.8 billion in goods to the US, including nearly $34.7 billion worth of passenger automobiles, $7 billion in auto parts, and nearly $3 billion in lithium-ion batteries. With such significant exports to the US, the potential impact of these tariffs could be severe.

The South Korean government, led by acting president Han Duck-soo, has vowed to work with the private sector to minimize damage. The government is planning follow-up measures to protect vulnerable sectors, such as small-medium enterprises and mid-sized companies. However, the country’s political instability, with the impeachment of former president Yoon Suk Yeol, may delay the response. South Korea’s aluminium sector is also on high alert, with companies looking to devise strategies to weather the storm.

Additionally, South Korean tech giant LG Electronics has warned that any further escalation in tariffs could have a pronounced impact on its operations, especially if the US introduces import quotas or safeguard measures. The company’s major production sites are spread across South Korea, China, Mexico, and Vietnam. LG's CFO, Changtae Kim, emphasized that higher tariffs would directly affect the company’s competitive position.

Looking Ahead

Both Japan and South Korea face uncertain futures as they navigate the complex landscape of US tariffs. Japan remains cautious, hoping for negotiations to alleviate the pressure, while South Korea moves swiftly to protect key sectors like automotive manufacturing. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how both nations adapt to the evolving trade situation and whether their efforts to shield their industries from the tariffs will be successful.

Alba and Alcoa Renew Alumina Supply Agreement Amid Tightening Global Market

Aluminium Bahrain(Alba)

Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), a leading aluminium producer in the Middle East, has renewed its alumina supply agreement with the U.S.-based integrated aluminium company Alcoa. This new, extended agreement will secure up to 16.5 million tonnes of smelter-grade alumina over the next decade, beginning in 2026. This strategic partnership not only strengthens Alba’s operational resilience by ensuring a steady alumina supply but also bolsters its competitive stance in the global aluminium market.

In a recent statement, Alba CEO Ali al-Baqali remarked, “This agreement not only guarantees a steady supply of alumina for our operations but also reinforces our position as a key player in the global aluminium market.”

The renewal of Alba’s alumina supply agreement comes at a critical time as the alumina market faces tightening supply. This is largely due to recent output disruptions in China, a significant alumina-producing nation, which has put pressure on the supply chain. Additionally, Alcoa recently announced plans to fully suspend production at its 2.2 million tonne-per-year Kwinana refinery in Australia by the end of this year, further impacting global supply.

Adding to the challenges, Guinea recently paused bauxite shipments from the subsidiary of UAE-based Emirates Global Aluminium. Although initially this is not expected to directly impact production at Al Taweelah, Emirates Global’s alumina refinery in the UAE, such disruptions in Guinea, a major bauxite source, signal potential long-term effects on the alumina and aluminium industries worldwide.

EGA Guinea Bauxite Supply Deal Restores Route to UAE Alumina Operations

Bauxite

EGA Guinea bauxite supply has moved closer to normalisation after Emirates Global Aluminium reached an amicable settlement with Guinea over the revocation of its bauxite mining licence. The agreement will allow Guinean producer CBG to resume bauxite shipments to EGA’s operations in the UAE.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply had been disrupted since Guinean customs suspended shipments from EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina in October 2024. The suspension followed delays in EGA’s plan to build an alumina refinery in Guinea.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply became more uncertain in 2025 when Guinea revoked EGA’s bauxite mining licence and reassigned it to newly created state-owned firm Nimba Mining. GAC continued to seek redress through legal action before the latest settlement.

The agreement includes a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to Nimba Mining. It also renews EGA’s bauxite supply agreements with CBG under mutually beneficial commercial terms.

Guinea Settlement Reopens a Strategic Bauxite Channel

The settlement is important because Guinea is one of the world’s most important bauxite supply sources. Its high-volume export role makes it central to alumina refineries and integrated aluminium producers.

For EGA, access to Guinean bauxite supports feedstock security for its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE. Stable bauxite supply is essential because alumina production depends on consistent ore quality, logistics and long-term commercial arrangements.

The dispute also shows how resource nationalism is reshaping aluminium raw material supply. Guinea has been pushing for more domestic value creation and stronger state control over mining assets.

The revocation of EGA’s licence formed part of a broader review of more than 50 mining licences granted over the past two decades. Those licences covered bauxite, iron ore, gold, diamonds and graphite.

By transferring assets to Nimba Mining while renewing supply through CBG, Guinea preserves more state influence while allowing trade with EGA to resume. This gives both sides a practical route out of a prolonged dispute.

For the wider aluminium market, the settlement reduces one layer of uncertainty around bauxite flows. However, it also reinforces the need for producers to manage political risk in key mining jurisdictions.

Hormuz Disruption and Smelter Damage Still Cloud Recovery

The bauxite agreement does not immediately remove all operational risk for EGA. The resumption of shipments to Al Taweelah depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been disrupted by the US-Israel and Iran war.

This adds a logistics risk to the feedstock recovery. Even with commercial terms resolved, bauxite and alumina supply chains still depend on safe shipping routes through one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.

EGA is also dealing with damage at its Al Taweelah aluminium smelter after a missile attack on 28 March. Operations there could take a year to resume, creating a separate challenge for the company’s primary aluminium output.

The situation highlights the dual exposure of integrated aluminium producers. They need secure upstream bauxite and alumina supply, but they also need reliable power, smelter operations and shipping routes.

For EGA, the Guinea settlement is a major positive for raw material continuity. But the company’s near-term recovery will still depend on geopolitical stability, shipping access and the pace of repairs at Al Taweelah.

The broader industrial message is clear. Aluminium supply security now depends on more than ore availability. It requires political settlement, maritime access, energy security and resilient smelting infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA’s settlement with Guinea shows that bauxite supply is becoming a political asset, not just a mining contract. The deal restores an important feedstock route, but Hormuz disruption and Al Taweelah damage show how fragile integrated aluminium supply chains have become.

Constellium's 2024 Earnings Decline Sharply Amid Operational Setbacks and Market Weakness

Constellium Al

Flooding, Cold Weather, and Weak Demand Pressure Aluminium Producer's Margins

Constellium, the France-based aluminium producer, reported a significant drop in 2024 earnings, citing weather-related disruptions and weakening demand across key markets.

The company posted an adjusted EBITDA of $623 million, down 12.6% year-on-year, on revenue of $7.3 billion, which declined 6% from 2023.

Severe flooding in Switzerland and extreme cold in the U.S. disrupted operations throughout the year. Fourth-quarter EBITDA dropped 26.9% to $125 million, while Q4 revenue declined 1% to $1.72 billion. Annual shipment volumes fell 4% to 1.4 million tonnes, with Q4 volumes slipping 2% to 328,000 tonnes.

All Divisions Record Lower EBITDA and Mixed Shipment Results

The aerospace and transportation division reported a 19% EBITDA decline in 2024 to $285 million, with Q4 EBITDA dropping 33% to $56 million. Annual shipments fell 4% to 209,000 tonnes, and fourth-quarter shipments declined 7% to 44,000 tonnes.

In the packaging and automotive rolled products division, EBITDA dropped 21% year-on-year to $242 million, with Q4 EBITDA plunging 34% to $56 million. However, shipments held steady at 1.03 million tonnes for the year and 239,000 tonnes in Q4.

The automotive structures and industry division experienced the steepest drop, with EBITDA down 43% to $74 million for the year. Q4 EBITDA fell 83% to just $4 million, while annual shipments declined 17% to 201,000 tonnes.

CEO Outlines 2025 Outlook Despite 2024 Challenges

Constellium CEO Jean-Marc Germain acknowledged 2024 as a “very challenging year” due to weather impacts, tightening scrap spreads, and broad market weakness.

The company faced disruption from snowstorms at Muscle Shoals and flooding in the Valais region of Switzerland.

Despite headwinds, Germain expressed optimism for 2025, guiding adjusted EBITDA between $600–630 million, assuming market stabilization.

Mercuria Venezuela Offtake Agreements Signal Push to Reopen Mineral Exports

Mercuria

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements mark a significant attempt to reconnect Venezuelan mineral supply with international markets. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group has signed strategic offtake agreements with investment firm Heeney Capital covering Venezuelan bulk commodities and gold projects.

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements are expected to support initial mineral exports worth about $2.2bn/yr. The partners are also advancing possible transactions in aluminium, nickel and ferrous products that could represent another $3bn/yr in export value, subject to regulatory approvals.

The agreements come as US government officials and industry participants visited Caracas to support new investment frameworks and supply agreements in oil and mining. The timing shows how raw materials trade is becoming more closely tied to diplomacy, sanctions policy and western supply-chain security.

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements also fit the trader’s broader expansion into metals and minerals. The company is using offtake structures to secure future supply while positioning itself in markets where conventional financing remains difficult.

Venezuela’s Aluminium and Nickel Revival Will Require Capital

Venezuela has historically been an important producer and exporter of aluminium, iron ore and other bulk commodities. However, its industrial base has weakened after years of underinvestment, power shortages, sanctions constraints and operational deterioration.

The aluminium sector is a clear example. Restarting or expanding output will require reliable electricity, working capital, plant rehabilitation, spare parts, logistics and customer confidence.

Nickel and ferrous products offer additional potential, but they face similar execution challenges. Resource availability alone will not be enough. Venezuela must rebuild industrial reliability and prove that export flows can operate consistently.

This makes Mercuria’s role important. A trading group can provide offtake, financing support, logistics expertise and market access without taking the same full risk as a mine owner or plant operator.

For Venezuela, the agreements could help generate export revenues and attract additional foreign capital. For western buyers, they could create another source of raw materials outside more concentrated supply chains.

Still, regulatory approval remains critical. Sanctions, compliance requirements and political risk will determine how quickly these agreements can move from announcement to physical trade.

Offtake Deals Reflect a New Metals Geopolitics

The structure of the agreements shows how metals trading is changing. Offtake deals are no longer just commercial purchase contracts. They are becoming tools for supply security, project restart and geopolitical alignment.

Commodity traders can secure future material while helping producers revive exports. This model is especially useful in jurisdictions where banks may hesitate, governments want fast results and buyers need alternative supply.

Mercuria’s Venezuela strategy also reflects the wider shift in western raw materials policy. The US and its allies are looking for new sources of industrial materials as supply chains become more fragmented and politically exposed.

This does not mean Venezuela can quickly return to full historical production levels. The country’s mining and metals infrastructure needs investment, operational discipline and credible long-term governance.

However, the strategic logic is clear. If Venezuela can reopen parts of its extractive industry under workable investment frameworks, it could become a useful supplementary source for aluminium, nickel, ferrous products and gold.

For Mercuria, the opportunity is to move early. By securing offtake and building relationships before assets fully recover, the trader can gain access to material flows that may become more valuable as western supply chains diversify.

The broader metals market should watch whether these agreements lead to actual export volumes. The first test will be regulatory clearance, followed by financing, rehabilitation and shipment execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercuria’s Venezuela agreements show that metals offtake is becoming a geopolitical instrument. The opportunity is large, but the real test will be whether Venezuela can rebuild reliable production and export systems after years of industrial decline.

 

US UAE Gallium Production Partnership Challenges China's Critical Minerals Monopoly

EGA

US UAE gallium production partnership emerged through a strategic alliance between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), Tawazun Council, and RTX Corporation. The US UAE gallium production initiative targets extraction at EGA's Al Taweelah alumina refinery, representing a significant diversification effort away from Chinese-dominated gallium supply chains for critical defense and aerospace applications.

Strategic Partnership Addresses Defense Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

US UAE gallium production collaboration directly responds to China's dual-use export restrictions affecting defense contractors. RTX subsidiary Raytheon faces Chinese export bans, forcing the aerospace giant to secure alternative gallium sources for semiconductor, radio frequency device, and LED manufacturing. The memorandum of understanding establishes an exploratory framework for domestic gallium production capabilities.

Meanwhile, EGA and RTX plan additional agreements to conduct comprehensive feasibility studies for the Al Taweelah facility integration. The partnership leverages EGA's existing alumina refining infrastructure while providing RTX guaranteed access to critical materials. This strategic alignment addresses both companies' objectives of supply chain security and market diversification.

Gallium Applications Drive Defense Industry Demand

However, gallium's strategic importance extends beyond traditional aluminum production into advanced technology applications. The critical mineral serves essential roles in semiconductor manufacturing, radio frequency devices, light emitting diodes, and consumer electronics. Defense and aerospace sectors particularly depend on gallium for advanced radar systems, satellite communications, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Therefore, establishing UAE-based gallium production creates alternative supply sources for Western defense contractors facing Chinese export restrictions. The Al Taweelah location provides geographic diversification while leveraging established Middle Eastern industrial infrastructure. This positioning reduces dependence on single-source suppliers in geopolitically sensitive regions.

Regional Industrial Diversification Strategy

Furthermore, the gallium partnership aligns with broader UAE economic diversification initiatives beyond traditional hydrocarbon sectors. EGA simultaneously announced plans for joint anode manufacturing development with Chinese producer Sunstone, demonstrating comprehensive industrial expansion strategies. These partnerships position Abu Dhabi as a regional critical minerals processing hub.

As a result, the US-UAE collaboration exemplifies how allied nations coordinate critical minerals supply chain resilience against export control weaponization. The partnership model combines American technology expertise with Middle Eastern industrial capacity and geographic positioning. Such arrangements increasingly define international approaches to critical materials security in contested global markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US-UAE gallium production partnership exemplifies strategic alliance formation in response to China's critical minerals export controls, demonstrating how defense contractors and allied governments collaborate to establish alternative supply chains. This initiative represents a broader trend of geographic diversification in critical materials processing, positioning the UAE as a key intermediary in Western supply chain security strategies.

Rio Tinto Boosts Global Copper and Aluminium Output in Early 2025

Rio Tinto Mining

Amrun Bauxite and Alumina Operations Drive Growth

Rio Tinto increased its global copper and aluminium output in the first quarter of 2025. The UK-Australian producer reported 15mn tonnes of bauxite and 1.9mn tonnes of alumina production from January to March, up 12pc and 3pc year-on-year respectively.

Meanwhile, its Amrun bauxite mine in Queensland exceeded nameplate capacity. Alumina output also rebounded from prior gas supply disruptions. Despite global supply headwinds, Rio Tinto maintained its full-year guidance for all major commodities including 3.25mn–3.45mn tonnes of aluminium and up to 850,000 tonnes of copper.

Aluminium Output Stable Amid Energy Constraints

Rio Tinto’s aluminium production remained flat year-on-year. Its Tiwai Point smelter in New Zealand operated at reduced capacity due to a request from Meridian Energy. However, a production ramp-up is scheduled for late August.

At the same time, the Kitimat smelter in Canada faced energy supply issues that limited further growth. While the US announced new tariffs on aluminium and steel in March, Rio Tinto confirmed minimal short-term shipment impact. Yet, long-term consequences remain uncertain for its Australian smelters.

Copper Output Rises Despite Refining Cuts

Copper output rose across Rio Tinto’s operations in Utah, Chile, and Mongolia. However, refining volumes declined by 10pc owing to depleted stockpiles and technical issues at Utah’s Kennecott site.

As a result, Rio Tinto is expanding the Kennecott mine with a new underground section. The North Rim Skarn, initially scheduled for 2024, will now start operations in the second half of 2025 and is expected to boost copper capacity by 250,000 t/yr.

 

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s Q1 output results suggest strong upstream resilience, especially in bauxite. However, energy access and refining disruptions remain critical variables. The success of Kennecott’s expansion will be key to meeting 2025 copper targets.

Alcoa Bolsters San Ciprian Smelter Operations Through Strategic MoU with Spanish Authorities

Alcoa

New Partnership Aims to Stabilize Alcoa’s Operations and Ensure Long-Term Sustainability

Alcoa, the prominent US aluminium producer, has formally partnered with both the Spanish national government and the Galician regional authorities through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to enhance the operations of the San Ciprian smelter in Spain. This strategic alliance is aimed at securing the smelter’s future operations, marking a significant development in Alcoa’s commitment to maintaining its footprint in Europe.

Previously, Alcoa attempted to divest the San Ciprian facility in 2021 but faced challenges due to deteriorating economic conditions. However, an initial agreement with labor representatives early in 2023 set the stage for a potential full restart by the following year. Despite these efforts, continued economic hurdles led Alcoa to reevaluate its options, culminating in today's MoU announcement.

Alvaro Dorado Baselga, Alcoa’s global vice-president for energy, highlighted the MoU's focus on collaboration and sustainable growth. The agreement encompasses various initiatives, including dialogue with labor unions, streamlining renewable energy projects, enhancing CO2 compensation, and approving crucial investments in waste management infrastructure. Baselga expressed optimism about using the current momentum to finalize negotiations with key stakeholders and secure a prosperous future for the San Ciprian plant.

Century Aluminum Output Set to Dip in 2026 as Smelter Restarts Reshape Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum output is expected to decline slightly in 2026 as the company balances reduced Icelandic production with a restart of idled capacity in South Carolina. The outlook shows how primary aluminum supply remains sensitive to potline reliability, power infrastructure, and restart timing.

The US-based producer expects to ship 630,000t of primary aluminum in 2026, down 2.6pc from 647,112t in 2025. Shipments also fell 5pc in 2025 from the previous year, reflecting operational disruption and uneven production across the company’s smelter network.

Century Aluminum output was affected by an electrical equipment failure at its Nordural smelter in Iceland on 21 October. The incident stopped production at one of the site’s two potlines. The company expects to restart the second potline by the end of April and return close to full production by the end of July.

Iceland Disruption Weighs on Primary Aluminum Shipments

Nordural is expected to produce 215,000t of aluminum in 2026, down 21.8pc from 275,000t in 2025. This decline will be the main drag on Century Aluminum output, even as the company works to restore production during the first half of the year.

The disruption highlights the importance of electrical reliability in primary aluminum production. Smelters depend on continuous power and stable potline operations. Any equipment failure can reduce output quickly because aluminum smelting is capital-intensive, energy-intensive, and difficult to interrupt without operational consequences.

Fourth-quarter production already reflected that pressure. Century’s total aluminum production fell 15.9pc year on year to 140,257t in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the company benefited from stronger aluminum prices as the LME three-month settlement rose 16.8pc during 2025 to $2,989/t.

Mt Holly Restart Supports US Aluminum Capacity Strategy

The Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina will partially offset the Icelandic decline. Century plans to restart more than 50,000t of idled production beginning in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter. The site is expected to produce 200,000t in 2026, up 28.2pc from 156,000t in 2025.

This restart matters for US aluminum capacity because domestic primary aluminum supply remains strategically important for industrial resilience. Once the Nordural and Mt Holly projects are completed, Century expects average production capacity closer to 750,000 t/yr. That would improve the company’s supply position if execution remains on schedule.

Century is also positioning itself for longer-term US growth. The company confirmed that its $500mn US Department of Energy grant will support its joint development project with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the sale of its idled Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data center infrastructure developer TeraWulf reflects a shift in how legacy industrial power assets are being redeployed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s 2026 outlook shows that aluminum supply strategy is no longer only about price recovery. It is increasingly about power security, restart discipline, and whether the US can rebuild competitive primary smelting capacity.

Treibacher Affirms Compliance with US Sanctions on Russian Vanadium, Ensures Stable Supply of FeV and V205

Treibacher

Austrian metals producer Treibacher announced today that it had proactively ended all dealings with suppliers connected to Russian-origin vanadium prior to the latest US sanctions taking effect last week. The company confirmed its compliance with these sanctions, which aim to restrict Russian vanadium supply chains and particularly affect major steelmaker Evraz Group’s operations, including its Vanadi Tula facility producing vanadium pentoxide (V205).

The US government’s August sanctions have intensified concerns among vanadium buyers, especially for products like ferro-vanadium and vanadium-aluminium alloys, essential in aerospace titanium grades. Treibacher has faced questions from buyers uncertain about the “clean” origin of its materials. In response, Treibacher issued a public statement to reassure clients, affirming that it strictly adheres to the sanctions.

"Treibacher continues to utilise its own substantial feedstock and its extensive global supplier network to secure the supply of vanadium oxide and ferro-vanadium to its customers," the company stated, highlighting its global resource network and robust supply chain.

Since the announcement of these sanctions, some market participants have reportedly raised their offer prices to leverage the uncertainty surrounding Russian vanadium supplies.