Japan’s Imports of Russian Palladium Rise for First Time Since Ukraine Invasion

Russian Palladium

2024 Sees 22% Year-on-Year Growth Despite Lingering Uncertainty

Japan’s palladium imports from Russia increased in 2024 for the first time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics. According to Japan’s Finance Ministry, total imports reached 12 tonnes, up 22% from the previous year, breaking a six-year streak of decline.

Despite this rebound, it remains uncertain whether Russian deliveries will return to pre-invasion levels of 17–20 tonnes per year. The modest growth comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and evolving global trade strategies.

Import Diversification Efforts Appear Short-Lived

Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Japan dramatically cut Russian palladium imports, which fell to 14.5t in 2022 (−19%) and then further to 9.9t in 2023 (−32%). Although palladium was not subject to direct sanctions, Japanese firms voluntarily reduced purchases over stakeholder concerns.

In response, Japan diversified supply in 2022, doubling imports from the U.S. (6.4t) and Italy (1t), while Taiwan and South Korea also saw sharp increases. However, these gains proved short-lived: in 2023, U.S. imports fell by over 50% to 2.8t, Taiwan’s dropped to 56kg, and South Korea’s dropped to 256kg, down 75% from 2022.

Since June 2024, Russian palladium shipments to Japan have exceeded 1 tonne monthly for seven consecutive months, suggesting tentative signs of recovery—but not yet a strong trend.

South Africa Remains Japan’s Dominant Supplier

While Russian supply fluctuates, Japan continues to lean heavily on South Africa, which delivered 23 tonnes in 2024—up 1.7% year-on-year. South Africa now accounts for 58% of Japan’s total palladium imports, marking the third consecutive year above 50%.

Analysts caution that despite recent increases, Japanese imports of Russian palladium are still well below historical averages. Whether a long-term recovery is underway will depend on market signals, policy sentiment, and the global palladium trade environment in 2025 and beyond.

Russian PGMs Continue Flowing to Europe via East Asia Despite Direct Import Declines

Russian PGMs Mining

Hong Kong and China Re-export Platinum and Palladium to Europe as Shortages Persist and Prices Stay Depressed

Russian Metal Flows Persist Despite Western Sanctions

Russian-origin platinum group metals (PGMs) continued entering European markets in 2024, despite significant declines in direct exports. Instead, the metal flowed indirectly via Hong Kong and China, both of which ramped up PGM exports after stockpiling Russian volumes in 2023–2024.

The UK, for instance, imported a quarter of Hong Kong’s 857,379 oz of platinum in the first eleven months of 2024—up 500% year-on-year, despite zero direct imports from Russia for two consecutive years.

Re-export Surge Undercuts African Suppliers

As the UK increased platinum imports via Asia, its platinum purchases from South Africa—the world’s largest platinum producer—fell 4% year-on-year. Market participants say rebranded Russian metal, sold at a discount, is undercutting South African supply in Europe.

Meanwhile, Switzerland absorbed most of Hong Kong’s 121,682 oz of palladium exports in 2024, sharply up from prior years. China’s palladium exports also jumped 87%, with half shipped to Switzerland, reinforcing the growing role of East Asia as a trade intermediary.

Global Deficit Grows as Output Shrinks

With supply tight, the EU and UK may continue to rely on these indirect Russian flows. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, platinum and palladium demand will remain robust through 2025, even as global production falls.

Non-Russian producers are scaling back: Sibanye-Stillwater announced job cuts at its U.S. palladium mine, and Impala Platinum may shut its Canadian Lac des Iles site early. Despite tightness, spot prices remain weak, limiting producer incentives to boost output.

Europe's Strategic Dilemma in PGM Supply

Palladium prices have plunged 57% in 2023, followed by another 36% drop in 2024, averaging $998/oz, per Johnson Matthey data. Although sanctions remain in place, Europe’s automotive and industrial sectors have few alternatives for essential PGMs.

Market insiders expect indirect Russian-origin PGM flows into Europe to persist in the medium term, particularly as Asia profits from discounted access. The gap between policy and procurement realities is widening, reinforcing the fragility of Europe’s critical metals strategy.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM Production Falls as Stronger Precious Metals Prices Lift Revenue

Sibanye-Stillwater

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM production declined in 2025, but stronger precious metals prices lifted revenue and earnings across the group. The result shows how price recovery can offset operational pressure in the platinum group metals market, especially when supply remains constrained and downstream demand stays uneven.

The South African mining group reported a 14pc increase in revenue to R129.7bn, equal to about $7.3bn. The improvement came despite lower production from both its South African and US PGM operations. Higher basket prices, especially in the second half of the year, provided the main earnings support.

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM production from its South African operations reached 1.7mn oz of 4E PGM in 2025. This was down by 0.8pc from the previous year. However, the company achieved an average South African 4E basket price of $1,740/oz, up sharply from $1,322/oz in 2024.

Higher PGM Basket Prices Offset Lower Mine Output

Stronger PGM prices helped Sibanye-Stillwater protect profitability despite weaker production volumes. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation at the South African PGM operations rose by 125pc to R16.7bn. This reflects the operating leverage that miners can achieve when prices recover faster than costs increase.

The production decline also highlights the broader challenge facing mature PGM operations. South African mines continue to operate in a difficult environment shaped by cost inflation, ageing assets, electricity risk, and labour intensity. In that context, higher prices are important, but they do not remove the need for disciplined restructuring and productivity gains.

Meanwhile, Sibanye-Stillwater’s US 2E PGM production fell by 33pc year on year. The decline was significant, but stronger palladium prices improved the sales picture. The company achieved an average US 2E basket price of $1,195/oz in 2025, compared with $988/oz a year earlier.

Palladium Trade Action and Battery Metals Add Strategic Context

Palladium remains a strategic factor for Sibanye-Stillwater because the company has direct exposure through its US operations. The company highlighted preliminary US anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium, following petitions filed by Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers Union. The move could support domestic and allied palladium producers if it reshapes import economics.

The company’s US operations also returned to profitability after restructuring. This matters because North American palladium supply carries strategic value in a market exposed to Russian material, automotive demand uncertainty, and changing emissions technology. Any policy support that reduces unfair price pressure could improve the outlook for non-Russian producers.

At the same time, Sibanye-Stillwater continues to broaden its portfolio beyond PGMs. Its Australian Century zinc operation produced 101,000t of zinc, up by 22pc on the year. Its Keliber lithium project also advanced toward production as construction neared completion and the first mining blast took place this month.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sibanye-Stillwater’s 2025 results show that PGMs remain a price-sensitive business where earnings can recover before volumes do. The bigger question is whether stronger palladium and PGM prices can support long-term reinvestment in assets that still face structural cost and demand uncertainty.

Enduring Reliance Amid Sanctions: Europe’s Russian Titanium Dilemma

VSMPO Titanium

Introduction: A Supply Chain Unbroken in Wartime

Despite sweeping economic sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one supply chain has proved remarkably resilient: Russian titanium sponge. Europe’s quandary over this advanced material—indispensable to aerospace, defense, and medical-device manufacturing—has only deepened.

Russia’s Command of Titanium

Russia ranks among the world’s largest titanium producers. VSMPO-AVISMA, the country’s flagship producer, accounts for 90% of Russia’s titanium output and exports to some 50 countries. The company is estimated to control up to 30% of the global titanium market and nearly half of aerospace-grade supply.

Russia’s dominance rests on abundant raw-material reserves and comparatively low energy costs. Because titanium smelting is energy-intensive, commercial viability depends on cheap power and gas—conditions Russia has historically met.

Airbus A380

Trade that Continues Despite Sanctions

On 7 March 2022, Boeing announced it would halt purchases of Russian titanium used in aircraft manufacturing. Rolls-Royce and Boeing subsequently suspended procurement from VSMPO-AVISMA indefinitely.

Europe, however, charted a different course. Airbus urged the European Union to keep Russian titanium outside future sanctions packages. As Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury argued, titanium represents a small share of Russia’s total exports, so sanctions would inflict little pain on Moscow while dealing a heavy blow to Europe’s aerospace industry.

Today, Airbus still sources roughly half of its titanium from VSMPO-AVISMA. Boeing, by contrast, once relied on Russia for about one-third of its titanium but has since stopped buying Russian material.

The Limits—and Exceptions—of EU Sanctions

Notably, while the EU has restricted imports of Russian steel and coal, titanium has not been sanctioned. The metal remains a strategic material used in fuselages, turbine blades, satellites, and other critical systems.

Dependence on Russian metals endures in other segments as well. From March to June 2022, combined EU-US imports of Russian aluminum and nickel rose to $1.98 billion—more than 70% above the prior-year period.

Washington and Brussels have generally refrained from designating industrial metals as sanction targets. Europe continues to import large volumes of Russian natural gas, and Russia supplies about 40% of global palladium—vital for semiconductors—implicating everything from automobiles to smartphones.

CBAM

CBAM: A New Variable

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced in October 2023, adds another layer of complexity. CBAM initially covers cement, electricity, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminum, hydrogen, and certain downstream products in steel and aluminum. After a transition phase through 2025, full implementation begins in 2026, imposing carbon costs on imports equivalent to those borne by EU producers.

While fertilizers, cement, hydrogen, and non-exported electricity may see limited near-term impact, aluminum stands out as a key target sector. Most exports to the EU beyond steel and aluminum are not yet covered, though the European Commission has signaled possible expansion to high-leakage categories such as organic chemicals and plastics.

Russia is structurally disadvantaged under CBAM. Steel production in Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye tends to be more carbon-intensive, implying higher embedded-carbon costs at the border.

Ambiguities in Sanctions and Industry’s Dilemma

The United States placed VSMPO-AVISMA on its “military end-user” list, restricting access to advanced technologies, but stopped short of a direct ban on titanium sales—an acknowledgment of global industry’s reliance on the material.

Indeed, during the early stages of the war, VSMPO-AVISMA avoided sweeping US and European sanctions. Although Washington temporarily listed the company in December 2020, the measure was later rescinded.

Recent moves, however, suggest a tightening environment. In April 2024, a joint US-UK action prompted the CME and LME to prohibit trade in newly produced Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel dated after 13 April—an effort widely read as constraining Russia’s influence in metals markets.

Ukraine Titanium Mine

Ukraine: A Viable Alternative?

Against this backdrop, Ukraine has emerged as a potential alternative. Until 2020, the country supplied 90% of Russia’s ilmenite—the feedstock for titanium sponge. With that supply chain severed by war, Ukrainian resources could help challenge Russia’s dominance.

US companies have begun talks with Kyiv on a joint venture anchored by the Zaporizhzhia Titanium-Magnesium Plant (ZTMP). Such partnerships could forge a new titanium hub in Eastern Europe, strengthening Ukraine’s economic footing for decades.

The risks are significant. Ongoing conflict and occupation threaten both Donbas deposits and the ZTMP facilities, which remain exposed to shelling and sabotage.

Aviation’s Growth—and Its Dilemma

The aerospace-titanium market was valued at roughly $100 million in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 5% from 2023 to 2032—reflecting the rebound in air travel and a pipeline of commercial aircraft programs.

Despite supply-chain turbulence from war, energy constraints, and labor shortages, passenger traffic continues to recover, lifting titanium demand. In October 2022, Airbus announced plans to deliver more than one aircraft per week to India, persisting with expansion despite engine-supply challenges and domestic carrier capacity constraints—developments that further complicate titanium sourcing.

The Reality of Diversification

Boeing reportedly began diversifying away from Russian titanium after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Airbus, by contrast, remains heavily reliant on Russian supply.

Globally, China produced around 100,000 t of titanium in 2013—twice the combined output of Russia and Japan at the time—making it the world’s largest producer. Japan ranked third, with Osaka Titanium Technologies standing as the world’s second-largest producer of titanium sponge.

The Metalnomist Commentary: An Unfinished Dilemma

Europe’s struggle over Russian titanium sponge epitomizes the knotty realities of modern supply chains. Between economic sanctions and security imperatives, between industrial competitiveness and moral principle, Europe has yet to find a definitive answer.

With CBAM’s full force arriving in 2026, higher carbon-cost pass-throughs on Russian metals seem likely, intensifying pressure to rewire supply. Yet, as Airbus’s position illustrates, displacing Russian titanium in the short term remains daunting.

The gap between industrial necessity and political sanction endures—witness VSMPO-AVISMA’s August 2025 statement that it stands ready to resume cooperation with Boeing. For now, Europe must navigate this dilemma with prudence: balancing sanction principles, industrial realities, and emergent environmental rules—while accelerating the use of recycled titanium wherever feasible.

Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance

Nornickel

Nornickel lowered its 2025 production outlook for nickel, palladium and copper. Nickel guidance now stands at 196,000–204,000t versus 204,000–211,000t previously. Copper guidance falls to 343,000–355,000t from 353,000–373,000t. Palladium guidance slips to 2.68–2.73mn oz, with platinum mostly unchanged. This update confirms Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance amid equipment overhauls.

Repairs and sanctions reshape mine plan

Scheduled major repairs drive the revisions and target higher long-term reliability. Management is also adapting domestic machinery after western sanctions disrupted imports. Therefore, near-term throughput will tighten while maintenance cycles normalize. Improved logistics aided second-quarter performance despite first-half softness.

Market signals across nickel, palladium and copper

Second-quarter nickel rose 9pc year on year to 45,000t. First-half nickel slipped 4pc to 86,850t. Palladium output dropped 11pc in the quarter to 658,000 oz. Copper fell 5pc in the quarter to 103,834t, reflecting export redistribution. First-half copper decreased 2pc to 213,189t. Platinum output reached 155,000 oz in the quarter, down 14pc versus January–March. First-half palladium totaled 1.4mn oz, down 5pc year on year. Platinum totaled 335,000 oz, down 6pc year on year.

Global market signals compound the guidance shift. Indonesian laterite supply keeps nickel oversupplied and caps prices. Meanwhile, battery-electric vehicles erode palladium demand in autocatalysts. As a result, Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance to match conditions. Tighter maintenance windows may also constrain class-1 nickel availability for stainless and batteries. However, restored Russian logistics and planned upgrades could stabilize 2026 output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Guidance discipline acknowledges volatile nickel and palladium fundamentals. If maintenance lifts plant reliability, 2026 volumes could recover without costly capex. Pricing relief still hinges on Indonesian supply restraint and slower BEV substitution.

Supply Cuts to Rebalance Nickel Market, Says Nornickel

Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) has projected a long-term rebalancing of the global nickel market, driven by price-induced closures of nickel operations, particularly in Australia and New Caledonia. These supply cuts, combined with a steady rise in demand, are expected to increase the floor price of nickel from its current range of $16,000-17,000 per ton.

Short-Term Nickel Market Outlook

In the short term, Nornickel holds a neutral stance on nickel prices. While supply cuts from loss-making operations are underway, the growing supply of Chinese Class 1 nickel—most of which is being delivered to the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Asia—has kept prices in check. The nickel market experienced a surplus of 75,000 tons in the first half of 2024, with exchange stocks rising by 40,000 tons during the same period. Nornickel estimates the global surplus will remain at 100,000 tons annually for both 2024 and 2025.

Impact of Falling Prices on Nickel Production

The sharp decline in nickel prices this year, which saw the metal dip below $16,000 per ton, has put significant pressure on producers. Nornickel estimates that over half of the world’s nickel production is currently generating only marginal positive cash flow. Approximately 400,000 tons of global nickel capacity is either idle or at risk of closure. However, the company expects a steady rise in nickel demand, driven by stainless steel production in China, a recovery in Indonesia, and continued growth in the aerospace, oil and gas, and military sectors, which require specialized alloys and superalloys.

Palladium Market Outlook and Financial Challenges

In addition to its outlook on nickel, Nornickel anticipates easing in the palladium market’s destocking by the end of the year. The company expects palladium to remain in deficit, with a shortfall of 400,000 ounces and a 2% year-on-year drop in demand to 9.6 million ounces.

Nornickel’s financial results for the first half of 2024 reflect the challenges faced by the nickel and palladium markets. Revenue dropped by 22% to $5.606 billion, while EBITDA declined by 30% to $2.35 billion. Net profit fell by 23% to $829 million. The group attributed these declines to logistical disruptions, including issues in the Red Sea, and complications arising from Western sanctions on Russia.

Copper Market Outlook

Nornickel remains cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, although near-term signals are bearish due to persistent inflation in Europe and the U.S., and deflationary concerns in China, the world's top copper consumer.

Nornickel Raises 2024 Production Guidance After Successful Repair Work

Nornickel

Russian multi-metals mining giant, Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), has raised its production forecast for 2024, including its key metals — nickel, copper, platinum, and palladium. This increase comes after Nornickel completed scheduled capital repair work ahead of time in the third quarter, boosting its operational efficiency.

The revised forecast shows Nornickel plans to produce between 196,000-204,000 tons of nickel, 337,000-357,000 tons of copper, 2.624 million to 2.724 million ounces of palladium, and 639,000 to 664,000 ounces of platinum in 2024. These numbers surpass the earlier projections made at the start of the year, which had set the target ranges at 184,000-194,000 tons for nickel, 334,000-354,000 tons for copper, 2.296 million-2.451 million ounces for palladium, and 567,000-605,000 ounces for platinum.

Efficient Furnace Repairs Drive Increased Output

One of the major contributors to this positive revision in production guidance was the early completion of the reconstruction of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant. Originally planned for 90 days, the furnace repair was completed in just 60 days, resulting in a 25% increase in smelting capacity. This allowed Nornickel to recover nickel production ahead of schedule and significantly boost mined production volumes.

Thanks to this efficient repair work, Nornickel’s nickel production saw a 3.45% year-on-year rise in the third quarter, reaching 55,805 tons. This represented a 16% increase from the previous quarter, further highlighting the positive impact of the Nadezhda furnace repairs. From January to September, Nornickel’s nickel output increased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 146,210 tons.

Growth in Copper and Platinum Group Metals

In addition to nickel, Nornickel's copper production also showed impressive growth, with a 7% increase year-on-year, reaching 107,497 tons in Q3. Output from January to September also rose by 7%, totaling 326,072 tons. This surge was attributed to a lower production base in 2023, as Nornickel upgraded its copper plant operations to improve the quality of copper cathodes.

Nornickel also saw a rise in its production of platinum group metals (PGMs). Palladium output increased by 2%, reaching 676,000 ounces, while platinum rose by 3.12% to 165,000 ounces. However, despite these gains, PGM production saw an 8% decrease in output compared to the second quarter due to the extended production cycle for these metals.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

The news of Nornickel’s production improvements comes amid a widening Class 1 nickel surplus, which has exerted downward pressure on nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Recently, nickel prices have been trading in the $16,000-$18,000 per ton range, with the most recent contract priced at $16,062.50 per ton, its lowest since September 13.

Nornickel’s expanded output and the influx of nickel from new Asian LME brands have contributed to this surplus, impacting the LME nickel benchmark. Despite the surplus, analysts expect the price of nickel to stabilize within the current range in the near term.

Nornickel Surpasses 2024 Production Guidance Amid Strong Nickel and Copper Output

Nornickel

Russian Mining Giant Achieves Higher-Than-Expected Metal Production

Nornickel, Russia’s leading multimetals mining group, exceeded its 2024 production guidance for nickel, copper, and PGMs. The early completion of planned capital repairs at its No. 2 flash smelting furnace at the Nadezhda metallurgical plant drove a 25% increase in smelting capacity. The repairs were completed in 60 days, ahead of the scheduled 90-day timeline.

Nickel and Copper Output Exceed Expectations

Nornickel produced 205,000 metric tons of finished nickel, surpassing its guidance of 196,000-204,000 metric tons, despite a 2% year-on-year decline. The company’s Q4 nickel production fell by 6.34% compared to 2023, but strategic sales in China’s electroplating sector and high-grade matte production at its Kola Division supported stronger-than-expected results.

The company also increased its high-quality copper cathode output, producing 433,000 metric tons in 2024, significantly above its 337,000-357,000 metric ton guidance. The share of high-purity copper in its product mix jumped from 10% in 2023 to 84% in 2024.

PGM Production and 2025 Outlook

Nornickel’s palladium production rose by 3% to 2.762 million ounces, exceeding its revised forecast of 2.624-2.724 million ounces. Platinum production increased slightly to 667,000 ounces, surpassing expectations. However, Q4 palladium and platinum output declined by 10% and 11%, respectively, due to maintenance downtime.

For 2025, Nornickel set its production guidance at 204,000-211,000 metric tons of nickel, 353,000-373,000 metric tons of copper, 2.704-2.756 million ounces of palladium, and 662,000-675,000 ounces of platinum.

Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.

First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.

Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.

Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.

Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.