Japan’s Imports of Russian Palladium Rise for First Time Since Ukraine Invasion

Russian Palladium

2024 Sees 22% Year-on-Year Growth Despite Lingering Uncertainty

Japan’s palladium imports from Russia increased in 2024 for the first time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics. According to Japan’s Finance Ministry, total imports reached 12 tonnes, up 22% from the previous year, breaking a six-year streak of decline.

Despite this rebound, it remains uncertain whether Russian deliveries will return to pre-invasion levels of 17–20 tonnes per year. The modest growth comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and evolving global trade strategies.

Import Diversification Efforts Appear Short-Lived

Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Japan dramatically cut Russian palladium imports, which fell to 14.5t in 2022 (−19%) and then further to 9.9t in 2023 (−32%). Although palladium was not subject to direct sanctions, Japanese firms voluntarily reduced purchases over stakeholder concerns.

In response, Japan diversified supply in 2022, doubling imports from the U.S. (6.4t) and Italy (1t), while Taiwan and South Korea also saw sharp increases. However, these gains proved short-lived: in 2023, U.S. imports fell by over 50% to 2.8t, Taiwan’s dropped to 56kg, and South Korea’s dropped to 256kg, down 75% from 2022.

Since June 2024, Russian palladium shipments to Japan have exceeded 1 tonne monthly for seven consecutive months, suggesting tentative signs of recovery—but not yet a strong trend.

South Africa Remains Japan’s Dominant Supplier

While Russian supply fluctuates, Japan continues to lean heavily on South Africa, which delivered 23 tonnes in 2024—up 1.7% year-on-year. South Africa now accounts for 58% of Japan’s total palladium imports, marking the third consecutive year above 50%.

Analysts caution that despite recent increases, Japanese imports of Russian palladium are still well below historical averages. Whether a long-term recovery is underway will depend on market signals, policy sentiment, and the global palladium trade environment in 2025 and beyond.