Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance

Nornickel

Nornickel lowered its 2025 production outlook for nickel, palladium and copper. Nickel guidance now stands at 196,000–204,000t versus 204,000–211,000t previously. Copper guidance falls to 343,000–355,000t from 353,000–373,000t. Palladium guidance slips to 2.68–2.73mn oz, with platinum mostly unchanged. This update confirms Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance amid equipment overhauls.

Repairs and sanctions reshape mine plan

Scheduled major repairs drive the revisions and target higher long-term reliability. Management is also adapting domestic machinery after western sanctions disrupted imports. Therefore, near-term throughput will tighten while maintenance cycles normalize. Improved logistics aided second-quarter performance despite first-half softness.

Market signals across nickel, palladium and copper

Second-quarter nickel rose 9pc year on year to 45,000t. First-half nickel slipped 4pc to 86,850t. Palladium output dropped 11pc in the quarter to 658,000 oz. Copper fell 5pc in the quarter to 103,834t, reflecting export redistribution. First-half copper decreased 2pc to 213,189t. Platinum output reached 155,000 oz in the quarter, down 14pc versus January–March. First-half palladium totaled 1.4mn oz, down 5pc year on year. Platinum totaled 335,000 oz, down 6pc year on year.

Global market signals compound the guidance shift. Indonesian laterite supply keeps nickel oversupplied and caps prices. Meanwhile, battery-electric vehicles erode palladium demand in autocatalysts. As a result, Nornickel trims 2025 nickel and palladium guidance to match conditions. Tighter maintenance windows may also constrain class-1 nickel availability for stainless and batteries. However, restored Russian logistics and planned upgrades could stabilize 2026 output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Guidance discipline acknowledges volatile nickel and palladium fundamentals. If maintenance lifts plant reliability, 2026 volumes could recover without costly capex. Pricing relief still hinges on Indonesian supply restraint and slower BEV substitution.