Sibanye PGM Production Rises in South Africa as US Output Falls

Sibanye

Sibanye PGM production improved in South Africa during the first quarter, but the company’s US mine output weakened because of lower production quality at East Boulder. The mixed result highlights the company’s uneven exposure across primary mining, recycling, zinc and lithium.

Sibanye PGM production in South Africa rose by 2% year on year to 383,241oz of 4E metals, covering platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold. Growth projects supported the increase and helped keep the company on track with its full-year guidance.

Sibanye PGM production in the US moved in the opposite direction. Output of 2E metals, covering platinum and palladium, fell by 5% to 68,386oz, with regular production expected to resume by the end of June.

The company maintained full-year guidance for both regions. South African operations are expected to produce 1.65mn-1.75mn oz, while US operations remain guided at 280,000-300,000oz.

South African Growth Offsets US Mine Weakness

Sibanye’s South African PGM operations remain the stronger side of the portfolio. The 2% increase in first-quarter output shows that ongoing growth projects are helping offset broader pressure across the PGM sector.

This matters because South Africa remains the world’s most important primary PGM supply base. Stable output from large producers supports automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies, chemicals, electronics and industrial applications.

The US Stillwater operations faced a weaker quarter. Lower production quality at East Boulder reduced output, although Sibanye expects normal production to return by the end of June.

The US decline is important because North American primary PGM supply is limited. Any disruption at Stillwater assets can affect regional availability of palladium and platinum, especially for customers seeking non-Russian and traceable supply.

Recycling helped offset the weaker US mine performance. Sibanye’s US recycled PGM output rose by 50% to 107,597oz, supported by better optimisation of material flows.

That increase reinforces the strategic value of secondary supply. PGM recycling can provide flexible metal units when mine output is uneven, while also supporting lower-carbon and circular supply chains.

Zinc Weakness and Keliber Progress Broaden the Portfolio Story

Sibanye’s Australian Century zinc operation produced 20,000t in the first quarter, down by 25,000t from a year earlier. Above-average rainfall reduced capacity and operating flexibility at the zinc operation.

The decline shows the weather sensitivity of tailings and zinc operations. Heavy rainfall can affect mining rates, processing efficiency, transport and operating continuity.

Century’s weaker output also matters because zinc remains important for galvanizing steel, infrastructure, construction, die casting and industrial manufacturing. Lower production from a major operation can tighten regional supply if weather disruption persists.

Meanwhile, Sibanye’s Keliber lithium project in Finland reached full completion during the first quarter. The first mining blast took place at the Syvajarvi mine in February.

Keliber gives Sibanye a strategic entry into Europe’s lithium supply chain. The project connects the company to battery materials demand and supports Europe’s effort to build more domestic critical mineral capacity.

Sibanye’s portfolio is therefore becoming more diversified. PGMs remain the core earnings and strategic base, but recycling, zinc and lithium all add exposure to different industrial cycles.

The first-quarter results show the benefits and risks of that structure. South African PGMs and US recycling improved, US mine output weakened, zinc suffered weather disruption, and lithium moved closer to future production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sibanye’s quarter shows why diversified metals exposure can protect a company from single-asset weakness, but also adds execution complexity. The strongest strategic signal is the rise in recycled PGM output, which could become increasingly valuable as customers seek secure and lower-carbon platinum and palladium supply.

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM Production Falls as Stronger Precious Metals Prices Lift Revenue

Sibanye-Stillwater

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM production declined in 2025, but stronger precious metals prices lifted revenue and earnings across the group. The result shows how price recovery can offset operational pressure in the platinum group metals market, especially when supply remains constrained and downstream demand stays uneven.

The South African mining group reported a 14pc increase in revenue to R129.7bn, equal to about $7.3bn. The improvement came despite lower production from both its South African and US PGM operations. Higher basket prices, especially in the second half of the year, provided the main earnings support.

Sibanye-Stillwater PGM production from its South African operations reached 1.7mn oz of 4E PGM in 2025. This was down by 0.8pc from the previous year. However, the company achieved an average South African 4E basket price of $1,740/oz, up sharply from $1,322/oz in 2024.

Higher PGM Basket Prices Offset Lower Mine Output

Stronger PGM prices helped Sibanye-Stillwater protect profitability despite weaker production volumes. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation at the South African PGM operations rose by 125pc to R16.7bn. This reflects the operating leverage that miners can achieve when prices recover faster than costs increase.

The production decline also highlights the broader challenge facing mature PGM operations. South African mines continue to operate in a difficult environment shaped by cost inflation, ageing assets, electricity risk, and labour intensity. In that context, higher prices are important, but they do not remove the need for disciplined restructuring and productivity gains.

Meanwhile, Sibanye-Stillwater’s US 2E PGM production fell by 33pc year on year. The decline was significant, but stronger palladium prices improved the sales picture. The company achieved an average US 2E basket price of $1,195/oz in 2025, compared with $988/oz a year earlier.

Palladium Trade Action and Battery Metals Add Strategic Context

Palladium remains a strategic factor for Sibanye-Stillwater because the company has direct exposure through its US operations. The company highlighted preliminary US anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium, following petitions filed by Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers Union. The move could support domestic and allied palladium producers if it reshapes import economics.

The company’s US operations also returned to profitability after restructuring. This matters because North American palladium supply carries strategic value in a market exposed to Russian material, automotive demand uncertainty, and changing emissions technology. Any policy support that reduces unfair price pressure could improve the outlook for non-Russian producers.

At the same time, Sibanye-Stillwater continues to broaden its portfolio beyond PGMs. Its Australian Century zinc operation produced 101,000t of zinc, up by 22pc on the year. Its Keliber lithium project also advanced toward production as construction neared completion and the first mining blast took place this month.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sibanye-Stillwater’s 2025 results show that PGMs remain a price-sensitive business where earnings can recover before volumes do. The bigger question is whether stronger palladium and PGM prices can support long-term reinvestment in assets that still face structural cost and demand uncertainty.

Lifezone PGM Recovery Advances US Autocatalyst Recycling Strategy

Lifezone

Lifezone PGM recovery has reached an important pilot milestone after Lifezone Metals produced platinum, palladium and rhodium from US-sourced automotive catalytic converters. The result supports the company’s plan to build a US-based precious metals refinery using hydrometallurgical technology.

Lifezone PGM recovery is designed to reduce US dependence on imported platinum group metals. The US imports around 2mn oz/yr of PGMs, mainly from South Africa and Russia, creating strategic exposure for automotive, defense and aerospace supply chains.

Lifezone PGM recovery could become especially important for rhodium, which carries one of the highest supply chain risk ratings in the US. Rhodium is critical for emissions control systems and remains highly concentrated in global mine supply.

Hydrometallurgy Targets Cleaner PGM Recycling

Lifezone completed 1,179 domestic pilot batch tests over two years, using 1t of US-sourced autocatalyst material. The company recovered platinum and palladium at more than 99% purity, while rhodium reached 95%.

Further refining is still underway. Lifezone is targeting more than 99.95% purity for platinum and palladium and 99.9% purity for rhodium.

The hydrometallurgical route is strategically relevant because it can produce lower CO2 and sulphur dioxide emissions than traditional pyrometallurgical smelting and refining. This gives the project both supply-chain and environmental value.

Glencore Support Adds Scale to US Refinery Plan

Glencore continues to support the project after forming a joint venture with Lifezone at the end of 2023. The Swiss mining group invested $1.5mn for a 6% stake and has the option to fund 50% of the project capital.

Lifezone said its pilot plant work and feasibility study are close to completion. The company expects to reach a final investment decision in the first half of 2026 for a commercial US autocatalyst recycling plant.

The project could give the US a stronger domestic route to recover PGMs from end-of-life catalytic converters. If scaled, it would support circular supply for automotive emissions systems, aerospace manufacturing, defense components and high-value industrial applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lifezone’s pilot milestone shows that recycling can become a strategic source of PGMs, not only an environmental solution. The decisive test will be whether the company can scale rhodium recovery to commercial purity and volume in a US-based refinery.

Sibanye-Stillwater Sees Mixed PGM Output in 2024: US Down, Africa Up

Sibanye-Stillwater

US Operations Cut Output as Africa and Zimbabwe Deliver Gains

Restructuring and Metal Prices Shape Production Strategy

Sibanye-Stillwater, the South African platinum group metals (PGM) major, reported a slight decline in US PGM output in 2024 but growth in South Africa and Zimbabwe. The company’s US Stillwater and East Boulder mines produced 425,842oz of 2E PGMs for the year, down less than 1% year-on-year. In the last six months of 2024, US production dropped by 15.4% as Sibanye focused on lowering costs amid challenging metal prices.

Cost Management and US Restructuring Drive Changes

The average 2E PGM basket price in the US fell below the all-in sustaining cost, prompting Sibanye to restructure. The company put the Stillwater West mine on care and maintenance, while East Boulder and Stillwater East mines saw reduced output. Despite lower mine volumes, PGM recycling at the Columbus metallurgical complex rose by 2% to 316,470oz for 2024, including a 9.2% increase in the second half.

African and Australian Operations Report Output Increases

In South Africa and Zimbabwe, Sibanye’s 4E PGM production rose by 4.2% in H2 2024 and 4% for the full year, reaching 1.74 million ounces. Key operations are located in the Bushveld Complex, Kroondal, Rustenburg, Marikana, and Mimosa. Beyond PGMs, nickel output at the Sandouville refinery in France climbed 8.1% to 7,705 tonnes, and zinc production at Australia’s Century site increased by 8% to 82,000 tonnes.

Sibanye’s regional flexibility, ongoing cost discipline, and diversified asset base position the company to navigate volatile PGM prices and evolving market conditions.

Implats PGM Output Holds Steady as Zimbabwe Strength Offsets South African Pressure

Implats

Implats PGM output remained broadly stable in the first half of its 2026 financial year, showing how diversified production can protect group performance even when key South African mines weaken. Total group 6E production rose by just 0.8pc to 1.798mn oz, while managed operations increased by 1pc year on year. As a result, Implats PGM output held close to last year’s level despite clear pressure at several individual assets.

This stability matters because the platinum group metals market is entering a more sensitive phase. Global PGM prices have strengthened over the past six months, supported by tight mine supply, resilient demand, and stronger precious metals sentiment under geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, even near-flat production from a major producer like Implats carries significance for the wider market.

The performance also highlights a familiar regional divide. South African operations at Rustenburg and Marula both posted declines, while Zimbabwean output at Zimplats expanded strongly. Meanwhile, Impala Canada saw lower output because of planned tapering. Consequently, Implats PGM output now reflects a portfolio where growth outside core South African assets is becoming more important.

Zimbabwe PGM Growth Is Supporting Group Stability

Zimbabwe PGM growth provided the strongest positive contribution in the period. Zimplats lifted 6E production by 13pc year on year to 317,000oz, making it the clearest bright spot in the group’s first-half results. That increase helped offset weaker output from South African mines and lower volumes in Canada. As a result, Zimbabwe continues to strengthen its role inside the Implats production base.

This shift matters because South African PGM production is no longer carrying the group as comfortably as before. Rustenburg production fell by 2pc to 888,000oz, while Marula declined by 4pc to 97,000oz. These are not catastrophic drops, but they reinforce the operational pressures still facing mature South African mining assets. Therefore, Zimbabwe PGM growth is not just helpful. It is increasingly strategic.

The contrast also reflects a broader industry theme. Investors and market participants are paying closer attention to which PGM producers can hold volumes steady without relying too heavily on aging or more difficult assets. In that context, Implats PGM output looks more resilient because its growth is not coming from one region alone. Meanwhile, a more balanced geographic mix can improve flexibility if operating conditions worsen elsewhere.

Global PGM Prices Are Improving the Revenue Picture

Global PGM prices are now giving producers a more supportive revenue environment. Implats reported sales revenue of R33,250 per 6E oz sold, up 39pc year on year. The improvement came mainly from a stronger US dollar PGM basket price, although some of that benefit was offset by the appreciation of the South African rand. Consequently, earnings leverage is improving even when production growth remains limited.

That revenue uplift is important because PGM producers have spent several years operating under uneven price conditions and cost pressure. When output growth is limited, stronger basket prices become even more valuable. Therefore, the latest pricing backdrop may matter more for profitability than the near-flat production number alone.

The next question is whether price support can last. Tight mine supply and steady demand are constructive, but PGM markets are still highly sensitive to macro conditions, auto-sector demand, and investor sentiment toward precious metals. As a result, Implats enters the second half with a more favorable price environment, but not without risk. Even so, the combination of steady Implats PGM output and higher realized prices puts the group in a firmer position than the headline production number might suggest.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Implats did not deliver dramatic production growth, but that may not be the most important part of this result. What matters more is that the company held volumes steady while price conditions improved and Zimbabwe delivered real support. In the current PGM market, stable output with stronger basket pricing can be more valuable than chasing marginal volume growth.

Most South African Mineral Exports to US Avoid Tariff Impact

South African Mineral Mining

PGMs, Gold, and Titanium Spared in Latest US Tariff Round

Most of South Africa’s mineral exports to the US, including platinum group metals (PGMs), have been exempted from new US tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s 2 April tariff announcement excluded PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal from the list of affected imports.

These exemptions are significant, as PGMs accounted for 76% of the R65.3 billion ($3.4 billion) in mineral and precious metal exports from South Africa to the US in 2024. However, iron ore and diamonds from South Africa will be subject to a 30% tariff, potentially straining trade ties and impacting specific sectors.

Auto Tariffs Threaten Downstream PGM Demand

A separate 25% tariff on US vehicle imports came into effect on 6 June, with auto parts tariffs set for 3 May. According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), these tariffs may reduce US auto demand, which in turn could lower PGM consumption.

PGMs—especially platinum, palladium, and rhodium—are essential in autocatalysts that reduce vehicle emissions. Lower car production would decrease catalyst demand, causing short-term price volatility in these critical metals.

Still, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for PGMs, citing structural demand drivers in clean mobility and hydrogen.

Limited Retaliation Options for South Africa

Despite the exemptions, broader trade tensions could still hurt South Africa’s mining sector. South Africa ships 7% of its total exports to the US, while accounting for just 0.25% of US imports—a disparity that limits its ability to retaliate.

Think tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies emphasized the need for diversification, urging South African exporters to find alternative markets. With the global economy under pressure from rising trade barriers, the ripple effect could dampen overall commodity demand and GDP growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The exemptions granted to South Africa’s key mineral exports show strategic prioritization by the US to maintain critical supply chains. Yet, the indirect consequences—especially in sectors like automotive and high-tech—may eventually flow back to impact even exempted metals. The situation reinforces the need for South Africa to accelerate market diversification and downstream value-add strategies in mining.

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition boosts US precious metals recycling

Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition boosts US precious metals recycling

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition will add scale to US recycling. The $105mn deal secures Metallix Refining’s North Carolina assets. The Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition advances urban mining and awaits approvals to close in 3Q 2025. The move complements Sibanye’s US operations in Montana and Pennsylvania.

Why Metallix matters to Sibanye

Metallix operates two precious-metal facilities in Greenville, North Carolina. The plants serve customers in the US, UK, and South Korea. They recover gold, silver, and PGMs from industrial waste streams. Sources include catalytic converters, semiconductors, electroplating, and automotive scrap. The company processed 4.2mn lbs of feed in 2024. It produced 21,000oz gold and 874,000oz silver. It also produced 48,000oz palladium and 48,000oz platinum. Output included 4,000oz rhodium, 3,000oz iridium, and 263,000lb copper.

Metallix Refining

Strategic fit and expected synergies

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition strengthens sourcing and logistics. The company expects broader reach and optimized internal flows. It also deepens relationships across PGM and gold recycling. Management aims to expand urban mining with higher US capacity. The acquisition adds industrial feed that supports circular supply chains.

Sibanye will integrate Metallix with its Montana and Pennsylvania sites. As a result, the group can balance feed quality and throughput. The buyer highlighted improved material sourcing as a priority. Closing remains subject to regulatory approvals in the US. The transaction is targeted for the third quarter of 2025.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal extends Sibanye’s PGM and gold footprint into high-quality US industrial scrap. With tight primary PGM supply, diversified recycling becomes strategic insurance. Expect the combined platform to compete aggressively for catalytic and semiconductor residues.

Johnson Matthey PGM Outlook Points to Industrial Demand as Deficits Persist

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook shows that industrial demand will remain a key support for platinum group metals in 2026, even as automotive, investment and jewellery demand weaken. The recycler expects platinum, ruthenium and iridium markets to remain in deficit.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook also shows a split market. Palladium and rhodium may move into surplus as higher prices encourage more autocatalyst recycling, while mine supply remains constrained.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook is strategically important because PGMs sit across automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen, hard disks, jewellery and industrial processes. Demand is changing, but the metals remain deeply embedded in high-value manufacturing.

The report suggests that PGM markets are not moving in one direction. Industrial demand is resilient, recycling is recovering, mine supply is under pressure, and vehicle technology choices are reshaping long-term consumption.

Recycling Rises as Mine Supply Remains Constrained

Autocatalyst recycling increased in 2025 after a long period of weak collection. Low PGM prices had discouraged recycling, while high vehicle costs led consumers to keep cars longer.

Higher PGM prices have now started to unlock hoarded material across the supply chain. Johnson Matthey expects secondary supply to rise by 8% as vehicle scrappage rates improve.

This recycling growth could support palladium and rhodium availability. Both metals are heavily linked to internal combustion engine catalysts, and higher recovered supply may push those markets into surplus.

Mine supply remains less responsive. Johnson Matthey expects PGM mine supply to fall because of lower South African production and a 10% decline in palladium output from Norilsk Nickel.

Producers remain cautious about greenfield projects and mine expansions despite higher basket prices. The industry needs confidence in future prices, not only current price strength, before committing capital.

This is especially important in South Africa. Platinum dominates the country’s PGM production mix, so sustained strength in platinum prices could eventually support investment. But palladium and rhodium remain exposed to the long-term decline of combustion engine demand.

Data Centres, Hydrogen and Electronics Support Industrial PGMs

Ruthenium remains one of the tightest PGM markets. Its deficit reached nearly 300,000oz in 2025, equal to almost a quarter of annual consumption.

Demand from chemicals, electronics and data centre-related hard disk production has strengthened ruthenium use. Strategic buying, especially in China, has also tightened market conditions.

Chinese export controls on ruthenium and ruthenium-containing materials have reduced supply availability outside China. This makes ruthenium a more sensitive critical mineral for industrial buyers.

Data centre construction for artificial intelligence is increasing demand for hard disks that use platinum and ruthenium. Wider electronics and electrical applications also remain supportive, with PGM use in those sectors rising by 8% in 2025 to 1.25mn oz.

Iridium demand is expected to rise slightly because of green hydrogen projects in Europe. This supports its deficit outlook, although hydrogen demand still depends on project execution and electrolyser deployment.

The US-Iran war adds uncertainty. Petrochemical demand for PGMs could weaken if Middle East oil and gas operations remain disrupted, while higher feedstock and operating costs may pressure industrial users.

The conflict could also affect vehicle demand. Higher fuel prices may push consumers toward electrified vehicles, but the impact on PGMs depends on the technology mix. Battery electric vehicles reduce PGM use, while hybrids still require catalysts.

Johnson Matthey expects automotive PGM demand to fall by 4% in 2026, broadly in line with lower global internal combustion engine production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PGMs are entering a more selective demand cycle. Palladium and rhodium face pressure from recycling and combustion-engine exposure, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium are gaining support from industrial, data-centre and hydrogen-linked demand.

NexMetals Botswana nickel project advances with EXIM financing plan

NexMetals

NexMetals Botswana nickel project moved closer to funding after a US EXIM letter of interest. The NexMetals Botswana nickel project could receive up to $150mn to redevelop Selebi and Selkirk. The NexMetals Botswana nickel project targets nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals.

US EXIM financing under CTEP

EXIM signaled support on 17 July with a non-binding letter of interest. The potential loan carries a maximum 15-year tenor. The package falls under EXIM’s China and Transformational Exports Program. As a result, EXIM prioritizes projects that strengthen US competitiveness in critical minerals. Eligible US procurement could unlock cost-effective access to advanced mining technology.

However, EXIM requires a full application and diligence before commitment. NexMetals must demonstrate technical feasibility and bankable project economics. The company will also outline procurement pathways for US goods and services.

Resource base and project milestones

Selebi hosts an indicated 3mn t at 0.98% nickel and 0.9% copper. That equals 29,500t nickel and 27,100t copper contained. Inferred resources add 227,000t nickel and 371,000t copper. Selkirk’s inferred resources include 108,000t nickel and 132,000t copper. The deposit also contains 775,000oz palladium and 174,000oz platinum.

Therefore, the mines could anchor a regional battery metals hub. The project aligns with US and allied EV supply chains. It also supports Botswana’s push into value-added processing.

Meanwhile, the financing roadmap remains critical to timing. A final decision depends on diligence outcomes and market conditions. Offtake structuring and equipment sourcing will shape the construction path.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EXIM’s early signal gives the project strategic momentum, not certainty. If NexMetals converts the LOI, Botswana gains a credible nickel sulphide supplier with PGM credits. The next hurdle is disciplined feasibility and a financing stack resilient to nickel price volatility.

Glencore Metallium e-waste recycling deal backs Texas critical metals recovery

Metallium

Glencore Metallium e-waste recycling deal will supply 2,400 tonnes per year of electronic waste to Metallium. Glencore Metallium e-waste recycling deal supports Metallium’s developing processing plant in Texas. As a result, Metallium can accelerate commissioning and prove commercial recovery at scale.

Glencore Metallium e-waste recycling deal builds on an in-principle arrangement reached in October 2025. Under the updated binding agreement signed on 5 January, Glencore becomes a core feedstock supplier. Meanwhile, Glencore also positions itself as a potential offtaker for recovered metals. This structure reduces early-stage market risk for a new recycler.

Why stable e-waste feedstock matters for copper and PGM recovery

Feedstock reliability is the first bottleneck in e-waste recycling economics. A steady 2,400 t/yr stream allows Metallium to stabilize plant utilization and metallurgical yields. Therefore, it can optimize recovery of copper and palladium from complex scrap mixes.

E-waste carries high-value metals but comes with processing variability. However, a long-term supplier can improve material consistency through sorting and specification discipline. As a result, recyclers can lower unit costs and raise payable metal recovery.

What the partnership signals for US circular supply chains

This deal reflects a broader shift toward domestic critical metals recovery in the US. Metallium is also pursuing non-exclusive partnerships, which reduces single-counterparty dependency. Meanwhile, its collaboration with ElementUSA on red mud adds a second feedstock pathway. That diversification can improve project bankability.

Metallium’s Texas plant is expected to open this year, creating a near-term test of execution. Therefore, the market will watch offtake terms for recovered metals and ramp-up performance. A clear offtake structure would help move from pilot credibility to repeatable industrial throughput.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement highlights how feedstock security now rivals ore security in metals strategy. However, recycling winners will be those who lock both inputs and offtake early. If Metallium executes, Texas could become a meaningful node in US circular copper and PGM supply.

Russian PGMs Continue Flowing to Europe via East Asia Despite Direct Import Declines

Russian PGMs Mining

Hong Kong and China Re-export Platinum and Palladium to Europe as Shortages Persist and Prices Stay Depressed

Russian Metal Flows Persist Despite Western Sanctions

Russian-origin platinum group metals (PGMs) continued entering European markets in 2024, despite significant declines in direct exports. Instead, the metal flowed indirectly via Hong Kong and China, both of which ramped up PGM exports after stockpiling Russian volumes in 2023–2024.

The UK, for instance, imported a quarter of Hong Kong’s 857,379 oz of platinum in the first eleven months of 2024—up 500% year-on-year, despite zero direct imports from Russia for two consecutive years.

Re-export Surge Undercuts African Suppliers

As the UK increased platinum imports via Asia, its platinum purchases from South Africa—the world’s largest platinum producer—fell 4% year-on-year. Market participants say rebranded Russian metal, sold at a discount, is undercutting South African supply in Europe.

Meanwhile, Switzerland absorbed most of Hong Kong’s 121,682 oz of palladium exports in 2024, sharply up from prior years. China’s palladium exports also jumped 87%, with half shipped to Switzerland, reinforcing the growing role of East Asia as a trade intermediary.

Global Deficit Grows as Output Shrinks

With supply tight, the EU and UK may continue to rely on these indirect Russian flows. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, platinum and palladium demand will remain robust through 2025, even as global production falls.

Non-Russian producers are scaling back: Sibanye-Stillwater announced job cuts at its U.S. palladium mine, and Impala Platinum may shut its Canadian Lac des Iles site early. Despite tightness, spot prices remain weak, limiting producer incentives to boost output.

Europe's Strategic Dilemma in PGM Supply

Palladium prices have plunged 57% in 2023, followed by another 36% drop in 2024, averaging $998/oz, per Johnson Matthey data. Although sanctions remain in place, Europe’s automotive and industrial sectors have few alternatives for essential PGMs.

Market insiders expect indirect Russian-origin PGM flows into Europe to persist in the medium term, particularly as Asia profits from discounted access. The gap between policy and procurement realities is widening, reinforcing the fragility of Europe’s critical metals strategy.

Platinum Market Faces Deepening Deficit as Supply Drops and Demand Shifts

Platinum

Strong Investment and Jewellery Demand Drive Q1 Growth

The platinum market faces deepening deficit in 2025 as demand surges and mine supply tightens, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). In Q1 2025, total global demand rose 10% year-on-year to 2,274 koz. This growth was largely driven by a sharp increase in investment demand, which compensated for declines in both automotive and industrial sectors.

Automotive demand fell by 4% to 753 koz in the first quarter. However, the WPIC noted that market resilience remained, despite mounting uncertainty from evolving U.S. tariff policies. Meanwhile, jewellery demand rose by 5% to 2,114 koz, led by strong recovery in China. Platinum’s widening discount to gold has attracted new buyers, particularly in the Asian jewellery market.

Sterck, WPIC’s strategist, stated that jewellery demand “is moving so quickly that we may not have captured the total upside.” He emphasized China’s outsized influence on the latest demand momentum.

Ongoing Mine Disruptions and Policy Risks Deepen 2025 Deficit Forecast

On the supply side, total Q1 output dropped 10% year-on-year to 1,458 koz. Mine supply fell across all major regions except Africa, with South Africa’s output down 10% due to heavy rainfall. Recycling rose by just 2% to 372 koz, not enough to compensate for reduced mining activity.

As a result, the platinum market posted a first-quarter deficit of 816 koz—the largest single-quarter deficit in six years. WPIC has now revised its full-year 2025 deficit forecast upward to 966 koz, reflecting worsening structural constraints.

WPIC projects 2025 supply will fall by 4% to 6,999 koz—the lowest level in five years. Recycling is expected to rise 3% to 1,537 koz, helped by a slight uptick in spent autocatalyst recovery. However, this remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Total demand in 2025 is forecast to decline 4% to 7,965 koz. This includes a 2% decrease in automotive platinum demand, despite slower-than-expected EV adoption. WPIC expects U.S. tariff uncertainties, especially under the Trump administration, to continue disrupting global PGM flows and investor behavior.

Sterck warned that market volatility may persist: “Trade distortions and significant metal flows are likely outcomes of this uncertain geopolitical environment.”

The Metalnomist Commentary

Platinum’s third consecutive annual deficit highlights a widening disconnect between structural supply limitations and fragmented demand dynamics. While China’s jewellery surge offers short-term upside, geopolitical risk and policy distortion—particularly around U.S. tariffs—may define market direction through 2025.

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reshape markets as PGMs rally

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook signals a split market for base and precious metals. Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook highlights persistent nickel oversupply, but tighter copper after 2025. Meanwhile, the company points to a strong PGM rebound driven by investment flows.

Nickel surplus persists as Indonesian supply keeps rising

Indonesian supply growth keeps the nickel market in structural surplus. Nornickel expects global nickel output at 3.86mn t in 2025 and 4.1mn t in 2026. Indonesia accounts for more than 66% of total production in that outlook.

Demand rises, but it still trails supply growth. Nornickel sees demand at 3.62mn t in 2025 and 3.83mn t in 2026. As a result, the market could post a surplus above 200,000t in both years.

Prices stay near marginal conversion costs for class 1 material. LME three-month nickel traded around $15,000/t for much of the past 18 months. However, prices fell to $14,322.50/t in the latest session cited by Nornickel.

Copper tightens after 2025 as concentrates stay constrained and PGMs rebound

Copper tightness could intensify after 2025 as concentrate deficits deepen. Nornickel notes copper prices rose more than 30% through 2025 and broke above $11,500/t by early December. Meanwhile, Comex–LME arbitrage pulled metal into the US and tightened availability elsewhere.

Mine disruptions keep concentrate supply under pressure. Nornickel expects mined copper output at 23.4mn t in 2025 and 23.8mn t in 2026. Therefore, treatment charges stay stressed, with spot TCs cited around -$40/t.

Refined copper balances look fragile in 2025 and tighter in 2026. Nornickel projects refined supply at 27.7mn t versus demand at 27.6mn t in 2025. As a result, 2026 could slip into a small deficit at 28.3mn t supply and 28.4mn t demand.

PGM prices rebounded as investors returned after gold’s surge. Platinum rose about 20% to around $1,650/oz, while palladium climbed about 38% to around $1,550/oz. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and underinvestment keep primary supply trending lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reinforces a two-speed metals cycle for 2026 planning. Nickel needs production restraint, not demand hope, to rebalance. Therefore, copper and PGMs may carry the tighter risk premium across industrial supply chains.

Lifezone Adjusts Kabanga Nickel Mine Plan Amid Market Pressures

Lifezone Metals

Lifezone Condenses Kabanga Nickel Mine Strategy

Lifezone Metals will simplify its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania to adapt to ongoing nickel price volatility. The company will pursue full-scale construction of a 3.4mn t/yr underground mine and concentrator rather than a phased approach. A hydromet demonstration plant in Kahama, 350km away, will precede a full-scale ecological refinery using hydrometallurgical technology.

Market Dynamics Prompt Strategic Shift

The decision to shift from phased development stems from weak global nickel prices and rising Indonesian supply. Nickel mine production dropped by 50,000t globally in 2024, while Indonesia increased output by 170,000t to 2.2mn t. Lifezone aims to complete a definitive feasibility study for Kabanga by mid-2025, reflecting the new plan.

Resource Update and PGM Recycling Focus

Measured and indicated resources at Kabanga rose 7.3pc to 46.8mn t, while inferred resources fell by 35.4pc. Grades remain strong: 2.09pc nickel, 0.29pc copper, and 0.16pc cobalt for measured and indicated resources. Meanwhile, Lifezone is advancing a joint venture with Glencore to recycle platinum group metals (PGMs) from catalytic converters in the US.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lifezone’s pivot illustrates the real-time flexibility required by mining companies in a volatile nickel market. With oversupply pressuring prices, optimizing scale and timing becomes critical. Simultaneously, its investment in hydrometallurgical refining and PGM recycling reflects a strategic bet on sustainability and future-facing technologies.