Global Battery Demand Nears 1TWh in 2024 as LFP Market Share Surges

Battery

EV Growth and China Lead Surge in Battery Demand

Global battery demand reached nearly 1TWh in 2024, largely driven by rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, according to the IEA's latest EV Outlook 2025. The Focus Keyphrase "global battery demand" continues to dominate energy transition narratives as EV sales accelerate across major economies.

EV battery demand alone exceeded 950GWh, accounting for more than 85% of total battery consumption. China led with 59% of EV battery demand, followed by the U.S. and EU, each holding a 13% share. The IEA projects battery demand will more than triple to over 3TWh by 2030 under current national policies. While supply of critical minerals is currently in surplus, the IEA warns that depressed prices could deter future investment, risking lithium and nickel shortages by decade’s end.

Battery Manufacturing Grows Faster Than Demand

Global battery manufacturing capacity grew by nearly 30% to 3.3TWh in 2024, tripling actual demand. If all announced projects proceed, capacity could reach 6.5TWh by 2030, outpacing the IEA’s projected demand.

South Korea led overseas battery capacity expansion with over 400GWh deployed in 2024, far ahead of Japan (60GWh) and China (30GWh). If planned projects materialize, South Korea could produce over 1TWh annually by 2030, almost double China’s expected output. As a result, China’s global manufacturing share is projected to fall from 85% in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030, diversifying global supply chains.

LFP Dominates Market as Regional Dynamics Shift

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now make up nearly half of the global EV battery market, with Chinese producers holding a de facto monopoly, especially in Europe and the U.S. European OEMs are increasingly opting for LFP chemistries to cut costs, displacing South Korean suppliers.

South Korean battery makers’ EU market share fell to 60% in 2024, down from 80% in 2022, while their U.S. market share rose to 35%, closing in on Japan’s 48%. Major Korean firms — LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI — are all preparing for mass LFP production to compete in this fast-growing segment.

Meanwhile, LFP adoption in Southeast Asia, Brazil, and India has surpassed 50% of battery electric car sales, signaling rapid global penetration. However, Japanese battery makers face domestic setbacks, highlighted by Nissan’s cancellation of its Kyushu LFP plant amid restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The rise in global battery demand underscores a structural transformation in energy, mobility, and manufacturing. While demand growth is robust, the oversupply of battery capacity and volatility in mineral prices highlight the sector’s growing pains. As LFP continues its global ascent, regional competition and vertical integration will shape the future of the battery ecosystem.

Latam EV Market Set for Massive 2025 Expansion Driven by Chinese Automakers

Latam EV Market

The Latam EV market will experience unprecedented growth in 2025 as electric vehicle sales in Latin America and emerging markets double to 1 million units. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese automakers drive this expansion by offering significantly cheaper models than traditional Western brands. The Latam EV market surge represents a critical shift in global automotive demand that will substantially increase battery materials consumption across the region.

Chinese Battery Technology Advantages Fuel Market Penetration

Chinese automakers captured 75% of all EV sales in emerging economies by leveraging superior cost advantages in battery pack manufacturing. China produces cheaper battery packs due to intense competition, enhanced manufacturing efficiency, supply chain integration, and access to skilled workforces. Meanwhile, Chinese battery pack prices fell 30% compared to only 10-15% decreases in Europe and the United States.

BYD and GWM electric vehicles now compete directly with conventional petrol cars in key Latam EV market segments. In Brazil, BYD's largest market outside China, the price gap between battery electric cars and conventional vehicles narrowed to just 25%. Therefore, Chinese manufacturers achieve price parity with internal combustion engines in Thailand and approach competitive pricing across Latin America.

Regional Manufacturing Expansion Promises Further Cost Reductions

Local production capacity remains minimal, with only 5% of EVs sold in emerging markets produced regionally currently. GWM and BYD plan to establish factories in Latin America by late 2026, potentially driving down costs further. As a result, these manufacturing facilities will bypass import tariffs while reducing transportation costs for the expanding Latam EV market.

Regional battery material demand will surge as local EV production scales rapidly across Latin America. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other critical minerals consumption will increase substantially to support growing battery manufacturing requirements. However, Latin America possesses significant lithium reserves, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, creating opportunities for vertical supply chain integration.

Global EV sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024, capturing 20% market share worldwide. The IEA projects 2025 sales will surpass 20 million units, representing over 25% of global automotive sales. Consequently, the Latam EV market expansion contributes meaningfully to this accelerating global electrification trend.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Latam EV market boom signals a fundamental shift in global battery materials demand geography, with Chinese manufacturers leveraging cost advantages to penetrate price-sensitive emerging markets. This expansion will create substantial new demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel while potentially enabling Latin America to capture more value from its abundant critical mineral resources through local processing and battery manufacturing integration.

Honda Ontario EV Plan Suspended Amid Slower Market Growth Projections

Honda EV

Honda suspended its ambitious C$15 billion ($10.7 billion) Honda Ontario EV plan to build a comprehensive electric vehicle value chain in Canada. Chief Executive Toshihiro Mibe announced the two-year delay during the company's first-quarter earnings presentation, citing slower-than-expected EV market growth. The Honda Ontario EV plan postponement represents a significant setback for Canada's battery materials supply chain development and critical mineral processing ambitions.

Comprehensive Battery Supply Chain Project Faces Market Reality

The Honda Ontario EV plan encompassed a complete electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem in Alliston, Ontario, including an EV assembly plant and standalone battery manufacturing facility. Honda partnered with Posco Future M to develop cathode and precursor materials facilities while collaborating with Asahi Kasei on separator plant construction. Meanwhile, this integrated approach aimed to reduce supply chain dependencies while supporting Honda's goal of 100% battery and fuel cell EV sales by 2040.

The comprehensive nature of the Honda Ontario EV plan positioned Canada as a strategic hub for North American electric vehicle production. Honda's investment would have created substantial demand for Canadian critical minerals, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt for battery cathode materials. However, slower market adoption rates have forced automakers to reassess their aggressive electrification timelines and associated capital investments.

Critical Mineral Processing Ambitions Face Automotive Headwinds

Canada's strategy to capture value from its abundant critical mineral resources through downstream processing suffers a major blow from the Honda Ontario EV plan suspension. The project represented a key opportunity to establish domestic battery materials manufacturing capabilities using Canadian lithium, nickel, and graphite resources. As a result, the delay undermines government efforts to build integrated critical mineral supply chains within North America.

Posco Future M's planned cathode and precursor facilities would have processed Canadian-sourced critical minerals into high-value battery materials for Honda's EV production. The partnership promised technology transfer and manufacturing expertise to establish Canada's position in global battery supply chains. Therefore, the Honda Ontario EV plan postponement reduces near-term demand prospects for Canadian critical mineral producers seeking domestic processing partnerships.

The two-year delay reflects broader challenges facing automaker electrification strategies as consumer adoption lags initial projections. Honda joins other manufacturers reassessing EV investment timelines amid market uncertainty and profitability concerns. Consequently, critical mineral demand growth may moderate as automakers adjust production capacity plans to match actual market conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Honda's decision to pause its massive Ontario investment reflects the gap between aggressive EV transition rhetoric and market reality, highlighting risks for critical mineral producers banking on rapid battery demand growth. This setback underscores the importance of diversified demand strategies for Canadian critical mineral projects, as automotive electrification timelines prove more volatile than anticipated across the industry.

China Sinopec CATL Investment Accelerates EV Battery Exchange Network Expansion

Sinopec CATL

China Sinopec CATL investment emerged as the state-controlled oil refiner became the largest cornerstone investor in the battery producer's record-breaking Hong Kong IPO. The strategic China Sinopec CATL investment supports the companies' ambitious plan to build 10,000 electric vehicle battery exchange stations nationwide, marking a significant shift for the traditional energy company toward new energy infrastructure as China's EV market continues rapid expansion.

Record IPO Success Validates Strategic Partnership Value

China Sinopec CATL investment positioned the oil refiner as the largest cornerstone investor in CATL's $4.6 billion Hong Kong IPO that became the world's largest listing in 2025. CATL shares surged over 16% in their Hong Kong trading debut on May 20th, closing at HK$306.2 compared to the IPO price of HK$263 per share. The successful market reception demonstrates strong investor confidence in the partnership strategy and China's EV infrastructure development plans.

Meanwhile, the two companies reached an initial agreement in April to build more than 500 EV battery exchange stations nationwide in 2025, with a long-term target of 10,000 stations. This ambitious infrastructure rollout leverages Sinopec's existing network of 30,000 integrated energy charging stations serving 300 million users, including approximately 10,000 EV charging and battery exchange stations already operational across China.

Strategic Project Targets Heavy Vehicle Transportation

However, Sinopec and CATL finalized a specific agreement on May 21st for the Qiji Exchange Station project focused on heavy trucks in Fujian province. The project will serve critical road freight transportation along the coastal route between the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta using CATL's latest battery exchange system technology. This heavy vehicle focus addresses a key market segment where battery exchange offers significant advantages over traditional charging methods.

Therefore, the heavy truck application demonstrates practical implementation of battery exchange technology for commercial vehicles requiring rapid turnaround times. The coastal corridor route represents one of China's most important freight transportation arteries, making successful deployment here a potential template for nationwide expansion. The project showcases how traditional energy companies can integrate new energy technologies into existing transportation infrastructure.

Traditional Energy Companies Embrace New Energy Transition

Furthermore, Sinopec's investment reflects broader trends among conventional energy companies accelerating investments in new energy markets. State-run energy firm PetroChina launched a "supercharger station" in Shanghai's Yili road area in March, demonstrating industry-wide recognition of EV infrastructure opportunities. These companies leverage existing real estate assets and customer relationships to enter growing new energy segments.

As a result, joint ventures between traditional energy companies and EV technology providers create synergistic opportunities for rapid infrastructure deployment. PetroChina, SAIC, Sinopec, and CATL established the Shanghai JieNeng Zhidui New Energy Technology joint venture in September 2022 to lease EV battery packs and develop battery exchange technology. CATL's construction of a 40 GWh annual capacity factory in Dongying, China's largest oil refining city, further strengthens these traditional energy sector connections.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinopec's cornerstone investment in CATL's record-breaking IPO exemplifies how China's traditional energy giants are strategically positioning themselves within the electric vehicle ecosystem, leveraging their existing infrastructure assets to capture new revenue streams in battery exchange services. The partnership's focus on heavy vehicle applications addresses a critical market need where battery exchange technology offers compelling advantages over conventional charging, potentially accelerating commercial EV adoption across China's logistics sectors.

Global Lithium-Ion Battery Shipments Surge in 2024, Driven by EV and Energy Storage Demand

Lithium-Ion Battery

Global shipments of lithium-ion batteries experienced a significant surge in 2024, fueled by robust growth in both the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors, according to data from Chinese research institution EV Tank.  This surge is projected to continue its upward trajectory through 2030, marking a promising period for the lithium and battery metals markets.

EV Battery Market Driven by China, Despite Global Economic Headwinds

In 2024, global EV power battery shipments reached an impressive 1,051GWh, representing a 22% year-on-year increase.  This growth was primarily propelled by the continued strength of China's EV market.  Government incentives, such as old vehicle trade-in subsidies, provided a significant boost, offsetting a slowdown observed in European and US markets due to weakened economic conditions and rising inflation.  This highlights the critical role of government policy in supporting the EV sector.

Energy Storage Battery Shipments See Explosive Growth

The energy storage battery segment also witnessed remarkable expansion, with global shipments soaring by 65% to 370GWh.  This surge can be attributed to several factors, including China's government-led initiatives promoting energy storage systems for wind and solar power generation, declining manufacturing costs, and strong demand in the US, partly driven by the investment tax credit.  Furthermore, growing GWh-level orders from emerging markets like the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Australia contributed to the overall growth.

China Dominates Lithium-Ion Battery Production

Overall, global lithium-ion battery shipments increased by 29% year-on-year to 1,545GWh in 2024.  China played a dominant role, accounting for 79% of the total, with shipments reaching 1,215GWh, a substantial 37% increase.  The sustained demand growth within China, coupled with the country's substantial investments in overseas production capacity, has solidified its position as a leading force in the global lithium-ion battery market.

Sodium-Ion Battery Adoption Slower Than Expected

While lithium-ion batteries continue to dominate, the adoption of sodium-ion batteries has been slower than initially anticipated.  EV Tank estimates China's sodium-ion battery shipments to have more than doubled to 2GWh in 2024 from 0.7GWh in 2023. However, this figure falls short of earlier projections of 3GWh per year. The primary reason for this slower uptake is the higher manufacturing costs associated with sodium-ion batteries compared to ternary and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) lithium-ion batteries, as well as lead-acid batteries.  Currently, the average manufacturing cost for lithium-ion batteries stands at 0.50 yuan/Wh as of June 2024, significantly lower than the 0.60 yuan/Wh for sodium-ion batteries, according to EV Tank.  This cost differential presents a significant challenge for the widespread adoption of sodium-ion technology.

Future Outlook: Continued Growth Projected

EV Tank forecasts continued growth in global lithium-ion battery shipments, projecting a rise to 1,899GWh in 2025 and an even more significant jump to 5,127GWh by 2030.  This optimistic outlook underscores the increasing demand for batteries across various applications, driven by the ongoing transition to electric mobility and the growing importance of energy storage solutions. The declining lithium carbonate feedstock prices, caused by supply expansions, have helped reduce manufacturing costs for lithium-ion batteries, further supporting market growth.

Gotion Foresees Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Batteries Dominating Global EV Market

In a significant shift for the electric vehicle (EV) industry, Gotion, a leading Chinese battery manufacturer, predicts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) battery chemistries will dominate the global EV battery market within the next two to five years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore on August 21, Gotion's Asia-Pacific president, Cheng Qian, projected that these battery types could account for nearly 70 percent of the global market share, with the remainder being held by nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries.

Qian emphasized that LFP battery technology is poised to take over the entire energy storage system sector, surpassing even the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of 80 percent dominance. He attributed this trend to advancements in LFP battery range and the increasing demand for faster charging capabilities among EV consumers. NCM batteries, he noted, would be relegated to use in high-performance and ultra-long-range vehicles.

The transition has already begun to impact the nickel market and is gaining momentum among South Korean battery manufacturers. These companies are anticipating strong demand for more affordable EVs, driven by the cost-effectiveness of LFP batteries. Samsung SDI and SK On, for instance, are preparing to launch mass production of LFP batteries by 2026.

Adding to this momentum, LG Energy Solution (LGES) recently secured a contract to supply 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division, Ampere, from its largest battery plant in Europe for the period 2025-2030. LGES is also planning to shift to LFP batteries for a U.S. energy storage project after initially supplying NCM batteries.

Expansion into Two-Wheeler Market

Gotion also predicts a significant shift toward LFP and LMFP batteries in the global two-wheeler EV market, which has been predominantly powered by NCM batteries. Cost reductions will be crucial for major two-wheeler markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, and Thailand, Qian noted.

India, which experienced a 30 percent surge in two-wheeler EV sales during its fiscal year 2023-24, reaching a record high of 944,126 units, is poised for further growth. Indonesia is similarly ambitious, aiming to deploy 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, escalating to 13 million by 2030. The nation has introduced a $458 million subsidy program to incentivize electric motorcycle adoption.

The Philippines has also outlined its EV roadmap, emphasizing the lower upfront costs of electric tricycles and motorcycles as key drivers for EV adoption. The country aims to achieve a 50 percent share of electric motorcycles and tricycles by 2030, increasing to 60 percent by 2040.

Stellantis NextStar Battery JV Exit Signals a New Shift in North American Battery Strategy

NextStar Battery

Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit marks another important shift in North American battery strategy. Stellantis will sell its 49pc stake in NextStar Energy to LG Energy Solution. The joint venture built Canada’s first large-scale lithium-ion battery plant in Windsor, Ontario. As a result, Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit shows that automakers are rethinking how they participate in battery manufacturing.

This move matters because NextStar was a major industrial project. Stellantis and LG Energy Solution invested more than C$5bn in the venture. Yet the ownership structure is now changing even as the plant remains strategically important. Therefore, Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit is not a retreat from batteries. It is a shift in how the company wants to access them.

Stellantis will remain a customer of the facility after the transaction. That means the company still wants battery supply, but no longer wants to own nearly half of the manufacturing platform. Consequently, Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit reflects a broader trend toward supply access without full operating exposure.

EV Battery Joint Ventures Are Moving Into a New Phase

EV battery joint ventures are no longer being treated as fixed long-term ownership models. Automakers are increasingly separating battery access from battery plant ownership. That change is becoming visible across North America. As a result, EV battery joint ventures are entering a more flexible and less traditional phase.

The Stellantis decision fits a wider pattern. Other major automakers have also restructured or exited battery partnerships. General Motors sold its Michigan battery JV stake to LG Energy Solution in 2025. Ford also changed the structure of its BlueOval SK partnership later that year. Therefore, Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit looks less like an isolated deal and more like an industry reset.

This shift likely reflects changing economics and strategy. Battery manufacturing is capital-intensive, operationally complex, and increasingly competitive. Automakers may now prefer to secure output through commercial agreements while leaving plant ownership and operation to battery specialists. Meanwhile, battery makers can broaden their customer base more easily under that structure.

North American Battery Strategy Is Becoming More Specialized

North American battery strategy is now moving toward clearer specialization between automakers and cell producers. After the ownership change, NextStar will serve a broader customer base, including the energy storage system sector. That gives the plant more flexibility than a single-customer automotive model. As a result, the facility may become commercially stronger even as Stellantis reduces direct ownership.

This matters because battery plants are no longer only tied to electric vehicle demand. Energy storage systems are becoming a second major growth market. A battery facility that can sell into both EVs and stationary storage may have better long-term utilization and lower concentration risk. Therefore, North American battery strategy is becoming more diversified at the customer level.

The broader lesson is clear. Automakers still need batteries, but they may not want to carry the same level of manufacturing ownership risk as before. Battery producers, meanwhile, can gain more control and expand into wider end markets. Consequently, Stellantis NextStar battery JV exit may signal a more mature phase in the North American battery buildout.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it shows the battery race is no longer only about building plants. It is now about deciding who should own them, run them, and absorb the risk. Stellantis still wants battery supply, but LGES now looks better positioned to turn NextStar into a broader industrial platform.

Indonesia-China EV battery joint venture to start output by 2026

PT AnekaTambang

Indonesia-China EV battery joint venture is set to start operations in 2026, marking a milestone in Southeast Asia’s battery industry. PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) and CATL are leading the $5.9bn project, which will significantly expand Indonesia’s role in global EV supply chains. The Indonesia-China EV battery joint venture aims for 15GWh capacity by 2028, supporting up to 300,000 EVs annually.

A $5.9bn integrated ecosystem for battery materials

The joint venture begins with a 6.9GWh capacity, expanding to 15GWh by 2028. Additionally, officials highlighted potential integration with solar panel battery storage, raising capacity to 40GWh. Most of the investment—around $4.7bn—will fund nickel smelters, mining, and precursor plants in North Maluku. Meanwhile, the battery cell project in West Java accounts for $1.2bn of the total budget.

Indonesia’s mineral advantage meets China’s battery expertise

Indonesia holds abundant nickel, cobalt, and manganese, essential for EV batteries, but lacks lithium and advanced technology. Therefore, Antam partnered with CATL to secure the expertise and technology required. By 2026, smelting and hydrometallurgy plants, alongside a nickel-cobalt-manganese precursor facility, are expected to strengthen Indonesia’s midstream value chain. This partnership underscores a growing alignment between Indonesia’s resource base and China’s global battery leadership.

Energy independence and EV market expansion

The Indonesia-China EV battery joint venture could supply batteries for 300,000 EVs annually, potentially reducing fuel imports by 300,000 kilolitres per year. President Prabowo stated that Indonesia could reach full energy self-sufficiency within five to seven years, provided battery production grows to 100GWh annually. As a result, Indonesia is positioning itself not just as a raw material supplier but as an integrated EV hub.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s partnership with CATL cements its role in the global EV battery supply chain. However, success depends on infrastructure, environmental safeguards, and balancing resource nationalism with foreign investment. If executed effectively, Indonesia could become a strategic alternative to China-dominated supply routes.

China’s Gotion Predicts LFP Batteries Will Dominate Global EV Market

Gotion High-Tech

Chinese battery producer Gotion High-Tech forecasts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) batteries will claim up to 70% of the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market in the next 2-5 years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore, Gotion’s Asia-Pacific president Cheng Qian highlighted the rising prominence of LFP chemistry, particularly in affordable EVs and energy storage systems.

The Rise of LFP Batteries

Qian projected that LFP batteries will dominate not only the global EV market but also the entire energy storage system (ESS) sector, exceeding even the IEA’s 80% forecast. He attributed this growth to advancements in LFP battery range and faster charging times, catering to the needs of everyday EV consumers. In contrast, nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries are expected to remain essential only for high-performance and long-range EVs.

This shift has placed pressure on the nickel market, as manufacturers pivot to cost-efficient LFP solutions. South Korean giants such as Samsung SDI and SK On are preparing to mass-produce LFP batteries by 2026. Meanwhile, LG Energy Solution (LGES) has committed to supplying 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division Ampere, underscoring Europe’s growing focus on LFP technology.

Two-Wheeler EV Transition in Asia-Pacific

The two-wheeler EV market, particularly in Asia-Pacific, is also expected to transition from NCM to LFP batteries. India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are leading this shift due to cost concerns and government initiatives.

• India: Achieved record EV sales in FY2023-24, with two-wheeler EV sales rising 30% year-on-year to 944,126 units.
• Indonesia: Aims for 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, supported by a $458 million subsidy program launched in March 2023.
• Philippines: Targets a 50% electric motorcycle and tricycle share by 2030, with cost efficiency driving adoption.

A Global Shift in Battery Technology

With its affordability and sustainability, LFP battery technology is reshaping the global EV landscape, especially in cost-sensitive markets. Companies like Gotion, LGES, and Samsung SDI are at the forefront of this transformation, signaling a shift towards accessible and efficient energy solutions.

Hydro Takes Full Ownership of Battery Recycler Hydrovolt

Hydrovolt

Acquisition Strengthens Hydro's Position in the Growing EV Battery Recycling Market

Norwegian aluminum producer Hydro has announced the acquisition of the remaining shares in battery recycler Hydrovolt from Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt. This move gives Hydro full ownership of Hydrovolt, solidifying its position in the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling market. The acquisition, valued at 78 million kroner ($6.8 million), is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, pending court approval.

Hydrovolt, established in 2020 as a 50:50 joint venture between Hydro and Northvolt, operates one of Europe's largest EV battery recycling plants in Fredrikstad, Norway. The plant boasts a 95% recovery rate for materials used in EV batteries, including plastics, copper, aluminum, and black mass—a powder containing valuable elements such as nickel, manganese, cobalt, and lithium.

Expansion and Future Plans

Hydrovolt is also constructing a new recycling plant in Hordain, northern France, with operations slated to commence later this year. The company aims to recycle approximately 300,000 tonnes of battery packs by 2030, equivalent to roughly 500,000 EV batteries.

This acquisition comes as Northvolt faces financial challenges, having filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2024 due to substantial debt. Hydro, which has been solely financing Hydrovolt's operations since mid-2024, now seeks a new partner to secure long-term funding for the subsidiary.

Strategic Significance

Hydro's full ownership of Hydrovolt underscores its commitment to sustainable and circular solutions within the aluminum and battery value chains. This strategic move strengthens Hydro's position in the burgeoning EV battery recycling market, contributing to a more environmentally responsible and resource-efficient industry.

Global Solid-State Electrolyte Shipments Surge as Semi-Solid Batteries Scale

Solid state electrolyte

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are rising rapidly as semi-solid batteries move toward vehicle adoption and full solid-state battery commercialisation advances. Chinese research institute EV Tank said shipments reached 4,100t in 2025, more than doubling from a year earlier.

The increase marks an important early-stage signal for the battery materials industry. Electrolytes are one of the core materials that determine the energy density, safety and commercial viability of solid-state batteries.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are still small compared with conventional lithium-ion battery materials. However, the growth rate shows that downstream producers are beginning to prepare for larger semi-solid and solid-state battery output.

EV Tank expects global solid-state electrolyte shipments to reach 229,000t by 2030. That would imply a compound annual growth rate of more than 120% from 2025 to 2030, making electrolytes one of the fastest-growing segments in advanced battery materials.

The forecast reflects both technological progress and industrial positioning. Battery producers, automakers and materials companies are now investing ahead of expected demand from electric vehicles, energy storage systems and high-end electronics.

Semi-Solid Batteries Create the First Commercial Demand Base

Semi-solid batteries are likely to provide the first meaningful demand base for solid-state battery electrolytes. EV Tank expects these batteries to begin vehicle adoption from 2026, ahead of full solid-state battery mass production.

This timing matters because semi-solid batteries can act as a bridge technology. They offer improved safety and performance compared with conventional liquid-electrolyte batteries, while avoiding some of the most difficult technical barriers facing all-solid-state cells.

Semi-solid battery growth is already supporting electrolyte shipments. These products still use electrolyte systems that may differ from fully solid-state designs, but they create early commercial demand for sulphide, oxide, polymer, halide and composite electrolyte materials.

Full solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale mass production from 2027. That stage will likely remain limited at first because large-scale production still faces technical, cost and qualification challenges.

The market therefore looks likely to develop in phases. Semi-solid batteries will drive early electrolyte consumption, while full solid-state batteries will gradually expand once production processes, interfaces and reliability improve.

Electrolytes are central to this transition. They influence ion conductivity, safety, cycle life, energy density and compatibility with electrodes. Any weakness in electrolyte performance can limit the entire battery system.

This is why electrolyte development is becoming a strategic battleground. Battery makers cannot scale solid-state technology only by changing cell design. They need stable, high-quality electrolyte materials that can be produced consistently at industrial scale.

Capacity expansion is accelerating in response. EV Tank expects producers with annual electrolyte capacity at the thousand-tonne level to emerge within the next one to two years.

That would mark a shift from laboratory and pilot-scale material production toward early industrial supply. It would also create a more competitive market among electrolyte producers seeking qualification with battery manufacturers.

For battery materials suppliers, this creates a new growth category. Electrolytes may become a higher-value segment within the battery chain, especially if producers can meet strict requirements for purity, particle control, stability and conductivity.

For automakers, the key issue is reliability. Vehicle adoption requires materials that can perform under harsh cycling, temperature and safety conditions. This means electrolyte suppliers must pass long qualification cycles before volume demand can fully develop.

Technology Routes and Cost Cuts Shape the Scale-Up

Solid-state battery electrolyte technology remains diversified, especially in semi-solid batteries. Sulphide, oxide, polymer and halide routes are developing in parallel, while both single-electrolyte and composite-electrolyte solutions are being adopted.

This diversity shows that the industry has not yet settled on a single dominant material route. Different technologies offer different advantages in conductivity, stability, manufacturability, cost and safety.

Sulphide electrolytes currently dominate the roadmap for full solid-state batteries. They offer high ionic conductivity and are widely viewed as one of the most promising routes for high-performance battery cells.

However, sulphide systems also face challenges. They require careful handling, moisture control and interface engineering. These factors can raise production complexity and slow commercial scale-up.

Oxide electrolytes offer strong chemical and thermal stability, but they can face processing and interface resistance challenges. Polymer electrolytes offer manufacturing flexibility, but often struggle with conductivity at room temperature. Halide electrolytes are gaining interest because of their electrochemical stability and potential compatibility with high-voltage cathodes.

Composite electrolyte solutions may become increasingly important. By combining material systems, producers can try to balance conductivity, flexibility, stability and manufacturability.

Cost reduction is also becoming a major commercial driver. EV Tank said improvements in material quality and production processes lowered costs across several technology routes in 2025.

Sulphide electrolyte costs fell by more than 35% during the year. This is significant because cost remains one of the biggest obstacles to wider solid-state battery adoption.

Lower electrolyte costs improve the competitiveness of solid-state batteries against conventional lithium-ion technologies. They also make it easier for battery makers to test commercial deployment in premium vehicles, high-performance energy storage and other demanding applications.

Still, cost reduction alone will not guarantee rapid commercialisation. The industry must also solve interface stability, dendrite control, manufacturing yield, pressure management and long-term cycle reliability.

This explains why some major automakers remain cautious. BYD chief scientist Lian Yubo has said solid-state batteries still face core technical bottlenecks and that liquid and solid-state batteries should develop as complementary technologies.

Great Wall Motor also does not expect large-scale commercialisation of all-solid-state batteries in the near term. This caution suggests that the market may grow strongly, but unevenly.

The commercial pathway is therefore not a simple replacement of liquid batteries. Conventional lithium-ion batteries, semi-solid batteries and full solid-state batteries are likely to coexist for years, each serving different cost and performance segments.

This has important implications for materials demand. Solid-state growth could increase demand for lithium metal, high-nickel cathodes, sulphur-based materials, oxides, halides and specialty chemical precursors. But it may not immediately reduce demand for conventional electrolytes, separators or liquid battery components.

The forecast of 229,000t of global solid-state electrolyte shipments by 2030 points to a large materials opportunity. But the final market size will depend on how quickly automakers adopt semi-solid batteries and how successfully full solid-state batteries move from demonstration to reliable mass production.

For supply chains, qualification will be decisive. Battery makers will not buy electrolyte materials only because capacity exists. They will need stable quality, competitive pricing, proven performance and reliable long-term supply.

For policymakers, solid-state batteries are increasingly tied to advanced manufacturing and energy security. Countries that control electrolyte technology and battery production could gain strategic advantage in next-generation electric vehicles and storage systems.

For the metals market, the key point is that battery innovation changes materials demand before full commercial adoption arrives. Producers begin scaling supply years before the technology reaches mass-market vehicles, creating early demand signals and investment cycles.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments therefore offer a useful indicator of where advanced battery manufacturing is moving. The numbers remain small, but the growth curve is steep enough to attract capital, competition and supply-chain restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Solid-state electrolyte growth shows that next-generation battery competition is moving upstream into materials engineering. The market will expand quickly, but full solid-state batteries still need technical proof before they can reshape EV and energy storage supply chains at scale.

Volkswagen ID.4 Production Halt Shows US EV Demand Pressure

Volkswagen EV

Volkswagen ID.4 production in the US will end as the German automaker shifts its Chattanooga, Tennessee, plant toward higher-volume internal combustion vehicle output. The decision reflects weaker electric vehicle demand in the US and the need to protect North American manufacturing utilisation.

Volkswagen said the EV market continues to challenge the industry and requires measured decisions. The company will stop producing the ID.4 at Chattanooga and begin assembling the all-new second-generation Atlas from mid-April 2026.

Volkswagen ID.4 production has been strategically important because the model is the company’s top-selling EV in the US. However, the ID.4 sold 22,373 units in 2025, far below the Atlas, which sold 71,044 units and remained Volkswagen’s second-best-selling model for the past three years.

The decision shows how automakers are adjusting production footprints as EV adoption slows. US EV sales fell by 27% year on year to 216,300 units in the first quarter, creating pressure on manufacturers to rebalance plant capacity, dealer inventory and product planning.

Chattanooga Shift Prioritises Higher-Volume SUV Demand

The Chattanooga plant will now focus on the second-generation Atlas, a three-row sport utility vehicle with much stronger US sales momentum. This gives Volkswagen a clearer volume base in a market where larger SUVs remain commercially attractive.

The move is not a full retreat from the ID.4. Volkswagen said model-year 2026 ID.4 vehicles will remain available through current inventory, supporting US demand into 2027. The company also plans a future version of the ID.4 for North America, although details have not yet been disclosed.

Still, the production shift is significant. Automakers rarely remove capacity from a model unless demand, margin or manufacturing strategy has changed. In this case, Volkswagen appears to be choosing a higher-volume SUV platform over a slower-moving EV in the near term.

This reflects a wider industry trend. EV demand has become more uneven as consumers respond to vehicle prices, charging access, policy uncertainty and changing incentive structures. Automakers now need more flexible production strategies rather than relying on straight-line EV growth forecasts.

EV Slowdown Could Weigh on Battery Materials Demand

Volkswagen ID.4 production changes also matter for the battery materials supply chain. Lower EV output can reduce near-term demand for lithium, nickel, graphite, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnet materials linked to electric drivetrains and battery systems.

The effect will not come from Volkswagen alone. The bigger issue is that several automakers are reassessing EV production rates in response to slower consumer adoption. If this pattern continues, battery material demand growth may become more volatile than earlier industry forecasts suggested.

For suppliers, the shift creates a timing problem. Many battery, cathode, anode and recycling investments were planned around rapid EV market expansion. Slower model-level output can leave material producers exposed to weaker offtake, lower utilisation and price pressure.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s decision does not eliminate long-term EV demand. It shows that the transition may move in phases, with automakers balancing EVs, hybrids and combustion vehicles depending on regional demand. North America may therefore remain a more mixed powertrain market than China or parts of Europe.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Volkswagen’s ID.4 decision shows that EV strategy is now being tested by real factory economics. The energy transition is still moving forward, but automakers will increasingly prioritise models that protect utilisation, margins and supply-chain stability.

Umicore Cuts €800mn in Capex for Battery Materials Amid EV Slowdown

Umicore

Belgian firm halves investment in pCAM and CAM to adjust to changing battery market dynamics

Umicore Reduces Battery Segment Capex to €800mn Through 2028

Umicore will cut its capital expenditure for battery materials solutions to €800mn between 2025 and 2028. The company previously committed €1.6bn but paused expansion plans in Canada for pCAM and CAM projects. This decision reflects slower electric vehicle (EV) growth and falling segment revenues.

At its Capital Markets Day 2025, Umicore confirmed its focus on more selective investments. Around €500mn of the revised capex will be directed to facilities in Europe and South Korea. The company still targets increasing CAM capacity to 45 GWh/year by 2028, up from 30 GWh/year today.

Canadian Battery Project on Hold as Market Cools

In 2023, Umicore announced a $2.1bn investment in Canada, including $1.8bn in capex for a battery materials site. However, weaker EV sales have prompted a strategic reassessment of capital deployment. The current pCAM production capacity remains at 80,000 metric tonnes annually.

Revenue from the battery segment dropped 30% to €386mn in the latest report. Slowing demand in Europe, coupled with a broader global deceleration in EV sales, drove this decline. Meanwhile, Umicore continues to explore cost-efficient growth in regions with stable market demand.

Shifting Priorities and Regional Focus

The company will prioritize mature markets like Europe and South Korea for near-term battery material investments. While Canadian plans are deferred, Umicore aims to sustain technological leadership through optimization and targeted expansion. This strategic pivot reflects broader trends as battery producers recalibrate amid uncertain demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Umicore’s capex cut signals caution across the battery supply chain as EV hype meets market reality. Prioritizing selective regional growth may offer stability while global demand resets post-2024 surge expectations.

BYD EV Sales Recover in May as Export Demand Offsets China Weakness

BYD

BYD EV sales returned to year-on-year growth in May as surging overseas demand offset continued weakness in China. The company sold 383,453 new energy vehicles during the month, up 0.3% from a year earlier.

BYD EV sales had declined for consecutive months since October 2025 as domestic policy changes, weaker incentives and government pressure against aggressive price competition weighed on China’s automotive market.

BYD EV sales are now increasingly dependent on international markets. Exports jumped to 160,644 units in May from 89,047 a year earlier, showing how rapidly the company is building a global sales base.

The recovery also highlights a broader shift in China’s EV industry. Domestic competition remains intense, while manufacturers are increasingly using overseas markets to absorb expanding production capacity.

Exports Become BYD’s Main Growth Engine

BYD sold 376,990 passenger NEVs in May and another 6,463 commercial vehicles. Battery electric vehicle sales fell by 2.8% year on year to 198,674 units, while plug-in hybrid sales rose by 3.3% to 178,316 units.

The split shows that plug-in hybrids continue to play an important role in BYD’s product mix. PHEVs can appeal to buyers that want electrification without relying entirely on charging infrastructure.

China classifies battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles as new energy vehicles. For battery material demand, however, the distinction matters because BEVs generally require larger battery packs than PHEVs.

BYD’s January-May NEV sales fell by 20% year on year to 1.4mn units. The decline followed government and industry efforts to reduce destructive price competition in China’s vehicle market.

The rollback of vehicle purchase tax incentives from 1 January also weakened domestic demand. At the same time, major automakers have committed to paying suppliers within 60 days to improve financial stability across the supply chain.

Exports are increasingly compensating for that pressure. Brazil has become one of BYD’s most important international markets and is now the largest destination for Chinese NEV exports.

Easing import restrictions in markets including Canada could provide additional export opportunities. This strengthens the case for Chinese automakers to continue expanding assembly, logistics and distribution networks overseas.

EV Export Growth Supports Battery Materials Demand

Higher oil prices have also improved the relative economics of electric vehicles. Rising crude prices since the escalation of Middle East tensions have increased operating costs for combustion-engine vehicles and strengthened EV competitiveness.

This can support demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials if EV exports continue to rise. However, the material impact will depend on the mix between BEVs and smaller-battery plug-in hybrids.

BYD’s shift also matters for the wider automotive metals market. Growing EV output supports copper demand through motors, wiring and power electronics, while alu

minium remains important for lightweight structures and battery enclosures.

The company has been fully committed to electrified vehicles since ending production of gasoline-only cars in March 2022. BYD sold 4.626mn NEVs in 2025, up 8.3% from the previous year.

The challenge now is geographic balance. Domestic growth is slowing, while overseas markets are becoming more important to utilisation rates and future production growth.

That shift could accelerate localisation outside China. As export volumes rise, BYD and other Chinese automakers may increasingly invest in overseas assembly and regional supply chains to manage tariffs, logistics and local-content rules.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BYD’s May recovery shows that China’s EV growth story is becoming increasingly export-driven. For battery metals, the key variable is no longer only Chinese vehicle sales, but how quickly Chinese manufacturers can convert overseas demand into sustained BEV and PHEV production growth.

BYD Achieves Record-High EV Production and Sales in 2024, Cementing Market Dominance

BYD

China’s leading new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturer, BYD, has set a new industry benchmark by exceeding 4 million units in EV production and sales in 2024. With a 41% year-on-year growth, BYD continues to dominate the global NEV market, reinforcing its commitment to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

BYD’s Historic NEV Production and Sales Growth

BYD’s total NEV production for 2024 reached 4.304 million units, marking a 41% increase from 2023. Notably, the company completely ceased production of gasoline-powered vehicles in March 2022, focusing entirely on electric mobility.

• December 2024 Production: 466,441 units, a 41% increase from the previous year.

• BEVs: 189,759 units (+7.6% YoY)
• PHEVs: 270,960 units (more than double YoY)

• Total 2024 Sales: 4.272 million units, accounting for 100% of BYD’s vehicle sales.

• December Sales: 514,809 units (+41% YoY)
• BEV Sales: 207,734 units (+8.9% YoY)
• PHEV Sales: 301,706 units (more than double YoY)

These figures place BYD at the forefront of China’s rapidly expanding NEV industry, which produced 11.345 million units between January and November 2024—a 35% increase compared to the previous year. Industry experts forecast that China’s total NEV sales will surpass 13 million units in 2024, further solidifying the country’s leadership in EV adoption.

BYD’s Power Battery Expansion and Market Position

In addition to its dominance in the EV sector, BYD is also a major player in power and energy storage batteries. The company installed 23.495GWh of power batteries in December and 194.705GWh throughout 2024—a 29% year-on-year increase.

BYD ranks second among China’s top power battery manufacturers:

1. CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology): 211.7GWh (45% market share)
2. BYD: 117.5GWh (25% market share)
3. CALB: 32.3GWh (7% market share)

These figures indicate BYD’s growing influence in the global lithium battery market, positioning it as a formidable competitor to CATL in the race for next-generation energy storage solutions.

Conclusion

BYD’s record-breaking EV production and sales in 2024 underscore its dominance in China’s NEV and battery industries. With strong growth in both BEV and PHEV sales, the company is well-positioned to expand its global market share. As China’s NEV production surpasses 13 million units in 2024, BYD’s continued investment in power batteries and energy storage will further reinforce its standing as a global EV leader.

Sunstone Anode Output Soars in 2024 Amid Surging Lithium-Ion Battery Demand

China Shandong Sunstone

China’s Shandong Sunstone significantly increased its anode output and sales in 2024, driven by booming lithium-ion battery production. The Sunstone anode output rose in both traditional prebaked carbon anodes and synthetic graphite materials used in EV battery supply chains.

Prebaked Carbon Anode and Synthetic Material Output Surge

Sunstone’s production of anode materials jumped to 54,100 tonnes in 2024, marking an 83% increase from 29,600 tonnes in 2023. Corresponding sales rose 66% to 43,800 tonnes. This growth reflects rising demand for lithium-ion batteries, which rely on synthetic graphite and carbon-based anodes.

In addition, Sunstone produced 3.26 million tonnes of prebaked carbon anodes in 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year. Sales for these anodes also rose 11% to 3.32 million tonnes. The company sources over 3 million tonnes of petroleum coke annually to fuel this growing demand.

EV Battery Growth Accelerates Feedstock Consumption

The lithium-ion battery market continues to expand at a rapid pace. Global shipments reached 1,545.1 GWh in 2024, up 29% from 2023. China led the way with 1,214.6 GWh in shipments, marking a 37% year-on-year increase. As a result, firms like Sunstone are scaling up production capacity to keep pace with downstream EV and energy storage demands.

Petroleum coke remains a critical feedstock for anode manufacturing, tying Sunstone’s operations closely to oil refining supply chains. This strategic positioning enables the company to support China's dominant role in global battery exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sunstone’s rapid output expansion reflects the deepening integration between China’s anode manufacturers and the global EV battery market. As demand for graphite-based materials surges, securing raw materials like petroleum coke will become increasingly strategic.

US EV tax credit expiration reshapes electric vehicle market

US EV

US EV tax credit expiration after 15 years is reshaping vehicle affordability and demand across the US auto market. The US EV tax credit supported sales of models like the Tesla Model Y and Chevrolet Equinox EV. Now the US EV tax credit has ended, leaving buyers with higher upfront costs and manufacturers with greater policy uncertainty.

US EV tax credit expiration driven by politics and fiscal push

The US EV tax credit began in 2008 as a bipartisan tool to jump-start early EV adoption. It later expanded under the Inflation Reduction Act, which tied eligibility to US-made vehicles and domestic supply chains. However, Republican lawmakers and oil interests increasingly opposed the subsidy, arguing it distorted markets and threatened future gasoline demand.

As a result, the latest tax and energy law under president Donald Trump removed the incentive from 30 September. Lawmakers framed the US EV tax credit expiration as a way to save more than $190bn over ten years. The move reflects a broader rollback of climate-linked support measures, including plans to repeal greenhouse gas limits on cars and trucks. This policy reversal now clashes with long-term investment cycles for automakers and battery producers.

EV affordability and US supply chains face fresh headwinds

The end of the US EV tax credit comes while EVs still cost more than conventional cars. Recent data show US EVs carry an average price premium of around $8,000 over combustion models. Without the $7,500 federal incentive, many mass-market buyers lose a key financial lever that helped close the price gap. This will likely slow new orders, particularly in middle-income segments and fleet purchases.

Meanwhile, manufacturers warn that the loss of the credit weakens the business case for US-based EV and battery plants. The revised credit had pushed automakers to localise assembly and critical mineral sourcing inside the US or allied countries. Its removal undercuts one of the strongest pull factors for building gigafactories, cathode plants and related supply chain assets on US soil. Industry groups argue this shift could hand competitive advantage back to regions with more stable policy support.

State-level climate policy will now carry more weight in the US EV landscape. California and other Democratic-led states plan to maintain strict tailpipe standards and invest heavily in charging infrastructure. However, even ambitious state measures cannot fully compensate for the vanished federal incentive. Automakers must therefore navigate a patchwork of regional rules while recalibrating sales forecasts and capital plans in a post-credit market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US EV tax credit expiration exposes the tension between long-term industrial strategy and short-term political swings. For metals and battery supply chains, the key risk is stop-start demand that complicates investment in lithium, nickel and cathode capacity. Unless policy clarity returns, the US could cede ground to regions where EV incentives and climate regulations move in a steadier direction.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

ChargeScape Rivian Partnership Brings Large EV Batteries Into Grid Services

ChargeScape

ChargeScape Rivian partnership will connect Rivian electric vehicles to utility-managed charging programmes, turning large EV batteries into flexible grid assets that can help manage peak electricity demand.

ChargeScape Rivian partnership is strategically important because Rivian vehicles carry some of the largest battery packs in the US passenger EV market. Earlier R1 models offer capacity of up to 141kWh, while newer R2 models carry around 88kWh.

ChargeScape Rivian partnership also creates a newno revenue model for EV owners. Drivers participating in eligible programmes could earn as much as $3,000/yr by allowing utilities to manage charging or sell stored electricity back to the grid during periods of high demand.

The agreement strengthens the convergence between transportation and electricity infrastructure, creating a distributed energy storage network without requiring utilities to build every battery themselves.

Large EV Batteries Become Flexible Grid Assets

Vehicle-grid integration allows utilities to shift EV charging away from peak periods and, where bidirectional charging is available, draw electricity from vehicle batteries when the grid needs additional supply.

This turns parked EVs into distributed storage assets rather than passive electricity consumers.

Rivian's large battery packs make the economics particularly interesting. A single 141kWh vehicle contains significantly more storage than many residential battery systems, creating substantial flexibility when thousands of vehicles participate together.

Utilities can use this capacity to reduce peak demand, absorb excess renewable generation and improve grid stability.

For EV owners, managed charging creates an opportunity to monetise battery capacity while vehicles are parked. The financial value depends on electricity prices, utility programme rules, battery availability and the frequency of grid participation.

ChargeScape already connects automakers with utilities including DTE, Silicon Valley Power and Xcel Energy. Its automotive shareholders include BMW, Ford, Honda and Nissan.

The platform says its existing partnerships provide access to more than 5mn EVs across the US and Canada, giving it the potential to aggregate substantial distributed battery capacity.

Vehicle-to-Grid Growth Could Reshape Battery Economics

The expansion of vehicle-grid integration changes the economic role of EV batteries. Battery packs can generate value not only through transportation but also through electricity markets.

At sufficient scale, connected vehicles can operate similarly to a virtual power plant, combining thousands of distributed batteries into one controllable resource.

This could reduce the need for some dedicated stationary storage while increasing the utilisation of batteries already manufactured for vehicles.

The model also strengthens demand for sophisticated battery management systems, power electronics, bidirectional chargers and grid software.

For battery materials, the impact is more complex. Greater economic value per battery could improve EV ownership economics and support vehicle adoption, strengthening long-term demand for lithium, graphite, nickel, copper and other materials.

At the same time, better utilisation of existing batteries can increase the amount of energy storage available to grids without requiring an equivalent increase in standalone battery installations.

The ChargeScape-Rivian partnership therefore represents a broader shift toward integrating transportation batteries directly into electricity infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EV batteries are evolving from transportation components into grid infrastructure. If vehicle-to-grid programmes scale, automakers and utilities could unlock gigawatt-hours of distributed storage without building entirely separate battery fleets.

Lithium-Ion Battery Copper Foil Shipments Surge as Ultra-Thin Products Gain Share

Copper Foil

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments rose sharply in 2025 as global battery production expanded and manufacturers shifted toward thinner materials to reduce copper costs. Global shipments reached 1.302mn t, up 41.7% from 2024, according to Chinese research institute EV Tank.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil demand remains closely tied to electric vehicle and energy storage growth. Copper foil is a key current collector in lithium-ion batteries, making it essential to cell performance, energy density and manufacturing cost.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments were dominated by China, which accounted for 82.9% of global deliveries in 2025. EV Tank expects global shipments to reach 2.615mn t by 2030, implying continued expansion as battery output scales.

The product mix changed quickly during the year. The share of 8μm foil declined, while 6μm remained the mainstream product and accounted for more than 70% of total shipments.

Ultra-Thin Foil Gains Momentum on Copper Cost Pressure

Ultra-thin copper foil gained share as battery producers looked for ways to reduce copper input costs. Persistently high global copper prices pushed cell manufacturers to use thinner foil while maintaining battery performance.

The combined share of 5μm and 4.5μm ultra-thin foil rose to 24% in 2025. This is a major shift for a material category that requires tighter production control, better surface quality and stronger consistency.

Thinner copper foil can help reduce battery weight and improve energy density. It also lowers the amount of copper used per cell, which becomes increasingly important when copper prices remain elevated.

EV Tank expects 5μm and thinner foil to become a key material for high-end batteries. This reflects the industry’s move toward lighter, higher-energy-density cell designs.

However, thinner foil also raises manufacturing difficulty. Producers must control pinholes, tensile strength, elongation, surface roughness and coating compatibility more precisely.

That technical barrier could separate higher-end suppliers from lower-cost producers. As battery customers shift toward thinner grades, qualification and process reliability will become more important than simple capacity.

China Leads Supply as Competition Intensifies

China’s 82.9% share of global shipments shows its dominant role in battery copper foil supply. The country has built large-scale capacity around its lithium-ion battery ecosystem, supported by domestic EV, energy storage and cell manufacturing growth.

Competition intensified in 2025 as the market recovered and producers brought earlier-built capacity on line. This created a more fluid ranking among suppliers.

Longdian Wason ranked first with a 12.2% market share. Huachuang New Material followed after capacity ramp-ups lifted output and sales.

Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology ranked third and fourth, respectively. Seven companies in the top 10 changed positions during the year, showing how quickly capacity, customer access and product mix are reshaping the sector.

Battery makers also increased procurement from second-tier suppliers to improve supply stability. This suggests buyers are trying to diversify supplier bases rather than rely only on leading producers.

For copper markets, the trend is strategically important. Battery copper foil growth creates a direct link between copper demand and battery technology. But the move toward ultra-thin foil also means battery growth will not translate into copper demand on a simple one-to-one basis.

The sector is therefore entering a more technical phase. Volume growth remains strong, but material intensity, foil thickness, supplier qualification and copper price pressure will all shape future demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper foil market shows how battery growth can lift copper demand while also forcing material thrift. High copper prices are pushing battery makers toward thinner foil, making technology and process control as important as raw capacity.