Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast as supply tightens

Cochilco

Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast after lower-than-expected production tightened supply. Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast to $4.45/lb for 2025 and $4.55/lb for 2026. The prior forecast was $4.30/lb for both years.

Tighter supply supports the new price path into 2026. Aurora Williams cited lower supply, expected rate cuts, and a weaker dollar. Meanwhile, geopolitical and commercial uncertainty keeps risk premiums elevated.

Tight supply and weaker scrap flows reshape the 2025-26 balance

Cochilco raises 2025-26 copper price forecast as scrap availability falls and incidents disrupt output. The commission expects supply growth to lag demand growth in 2026. Therefore, the market can stay tight even with higher mine production.

Global production is forecast to rise 3.9% to 23.8mn t in 2026. Production is expected at 22.9mn t this year. However, the supply increase may not keep pace with consumption.

Refined copper deficit outlook raises stakes for producers and buyers

Cochilco forecasts a global refined copper deficit of 165,000t in 2026. It expects supply growth of 1.4% versus demand growth of 2.1%. Therefore, smelters and fabricators may face tighter sourcing conditions.

Chile produced 3.92mn t in January–September. Cochilco expects output to reach 5.5mn t by year-end. It projects 5.6mn t in 2026, up 2.5%.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Higher price decks help new copper projects clear financing hurdles. Meanwhile, any delay in supply growth can magnify deficits quickly. Therefore, buyers should lock in volumes and extend hedging into 2026.