EU 2035 Car Emissions Target Faces Growing Political Divide

EU, ETS

EU 2035 car emissions target remains firmly backed by France, Spain and Sweden, while Poland is pushing for greater flexibility on vehicle rules and a slower rollout of the bloc’s emissions trading system for road transport and buildings.

EU 2035 car emissions target requires new passenger cars to reach 0g/km of CO2 from 2035. France says it has assembled enough support to block attempts to extend conventional internal combustion engine sales beyond that date.

EU 2035 car emissions target is becoming increasingly linked with industrial competitiveness. Policymakers are debating whether biofuels, e-fuels and low-carbon steel should help manufacturers meet emissions obligations without weakening overall climate targets.

The discussion also exposes widening divisions over ETS 2, electricity costs and how quickly Europe can electrify transport while preserving automotive manufacturing.

Car Rules Bring Steel, Fuels and Manufacturing Into the Debate

France, Sweden and Spain argue that weakening the 2035 target would undermine investment certainty for electric vehicles and associated supply chains.

Sweden has warned that slowing electrification could make European automakers more vulnerable against global EV competitors. Spain has also expressed concern that excessive flexibility would dilute the original target.

The European Commission has proposed allowing carbon-neutral biofuels and e-fuels to count toward up to 3% of vehicle CO2 targets.

More importantly for the metals sector, low-carbon steel credits could contribute up to 7% of manufacturers’ CO2 reduction requirements for cars and vans.

This creates a direct connection between automotive regulation and green steel demand. Carmakers using lower-emissions steel could gain additional compliance value beyond conventional material performance.

For European steel producers investing in electric arc furnaces, hydrogen-based ironmaking and lower-carbon power, such credits could create a stronger demand signal from automotive customers.

However, broader flexibility also creates policy risk. If compliance pathways become too generous, demand for battery electric vehicles could grow more slowly than expected.

That would affect not only automakers but also lithium, nickel, graphite, copper and battery manufacturing investment across Europe.

ETS 2 Reform Highlights Europe’s Cost and Competitiveness Problem

Poland is separately calling for another delay to ETS 2, which is already scheduled to begin in 2028 after being postponed from 2027.

The system will extend carbon pricing to road transport and heating fuels, potentially increasing costs for households and businesses using fossil fuels.

Warsaw is also seeking to transform the existing emissions trading system market stability reserve into a stronger price control mechanism.

The reserve currently absorbs excess allowances from the market, but Poland wants greater ability to prevent sharp carbon price increases.

Germany is taking a different approach, arguing that changes to the annual reduction rate for existing ETS allowances should only begin from 2036.

These positions show that Europe increasingly faces two competing priorities: maintaining credible decarbonisation targets while preventing carbon costs from damaging industrial competitiveness and consumer affordability.

The debate also extends beyond Europe. Turkey has proposed a global target for electricity to reach 35% of final energy consumption by 2035, reflecting the growing role of electrification in international climate policy.

For metals markets, faster electrification would support long-term demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and battery materials. But the pace will depend increasingly on whether Europe can manage power, carbon and manufacturing costs simultaneously.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s climate debate is shifting from whether to decarbonise toward how to distribute the industrial cost. The inclusion of low-carbon steel credits shows that automotive policy is increasingly becoming metals policy as well.

China Titanium Dioxide Exports Rise 31% as India Shipments Recover

Titanium dioxide

China titanium dioxide exports rose sharply in May as shipments recovered from the weak year-earlier comparison and demand from India strengthened. Total exports reached 152,761t, up 31% from a year earlier.

China titanium dioxide exports nevertheless fell 21% from April’s 193,503t. Overseas buyers had accelerated purchases during March and April on expectations of further price increases, reducing immediate requirements in May.

China titanium dioxide exports reached 883,080t during January-May, up 13% from the same period last year. The increase confirms China’s continuing importance as a major supplier to global coatings, plastics, paper and other pigment-consuming industries.

India emerged as a leading destination for both chloride- and sulphate-process material despite trade measures affecting Chinese TiO2.

Chloride and Sulphate Exports Show Different Market Dynamics

China exported 34,354t of chloride-process titanium dioxide in May, up 38% year on year but down 20% from April.

India was the largest destination with 3,758t, followed by Vietnam with 3,185t and South Korea with 2,713t.

Chloride-process TiO2 generally serves higher-performance applications requiring strong brightness, durability and pigment quality. Expansion of Chinese chloride capacity has therefore helped domestic producers compete more directly in higher-value international markets.

Sulphate-process exports remained much larger at 118,407t in May. Shipments increased 6.9% from a year earlier but fell 21% from April.

India again ranked first with 13,646t, followed by Turkey at 9,611t and South Korea at 8,598t.

The continued dominance of sulphate-process material reflects China’s extensive installed production base and competitive cost position across commodity pigment markets.

However, the faster year-on-year growth in chloride exports suggests China is gradually strengthening its position in more technically demanding TiO2 segments.

Higher Exports Support Titanium Feedstock Demand

Sustained titanium dioxide production has implications further upstream in the titanium mineral supply chain.

Chloride-process plants typically require higher-grade titanium feedstocks, while sulphate production can consume a broader range of ilmenite and titanium slag products.

Higher Chinese pigment output can therefore support demand for ilmenite, upgraded titanium slag and other TiO2 feedstocks.

India remains an important market despite anti-dumping measures introduced against Chinese material. The recovery in shipments indicates that trade barriers have not removed underlying Indian demand for competitively priced pigment.

However, monthly export volatility remains significant. The May decline from April shows that buyers can shift purchasing schedules rapidly when they expect price changes.

For Chinese producers, continued export growth will depend on maintaining cost competitiveness while navigating anti-dumping duties and other trade barriers in major consuming markets.

China Titanium Dioxide Exports

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s TiO2 export strength shows that trade measures can redirect or delay shipments without necessarily removing underlying demand. The more strategic development is the growth of chloride-process exports, which could increase China’s demand for higher-grade titanium mineral feedstocks.

COP31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Iea

COP31 electrification target discussions are gaining momentum as the International Energy Agency backs Turkey’s proposal for electricity to reach 35% of global final energy consumption by 2035. Electricity currently accounts for around 20%.

COP31 electrification target adoption would imply a major acceleration in power generation, transmission, storage and end-use electrification. That would have direct consequences for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other industrial metals.

COP31 electrification target support is not universal, however. Developing countries argue that faster electrification will require better access to financing, technology and infrastructure if the transition is to remain economically viable.

The debate therefore moves beyond climate policy. It increasingly concerns who will finance the grids, power systems and material supply chains required to deliver a much more electrified global economy.

Higher Electrification Would Drive Grid and Metals Investment

Raising electricity’s share of final energy consumption from around 20% to 35% would require substantial expansion of generation and network infrastructure.

Grid investment would become particularly important because additional renewable generation has limited value without transmission capacity, storage and distribution networks capable of delivering power to consumers.

Copper would be one of the clearest beneficiaries because of its extensive use in cables, transformers, motors and electrical equipment.

Aluminium demand could also increase through overhead conductors, renewable energy structures and lightweight electrical applications.

Electrical steel, lithium, graphite, nickel and other materials would gain from additional transformers, motors, batteries and stationary storage systems.

However, stronger metals demand could also create supply constraints. New mines, refineries and processing plants often require long development periods, while electrification targets can increase demand much faster.

This makes materials security an increasingly important part of energy policy.

Finance Gap Could Decide Whether the Target Is Achievable

Developing countries have warned that electrification cannot advance at the same pace everywhere because financing costs differ significantly between markets.

Countries perceived as higher risk often face much higher borrowing costs for renewable generation, grids and storage.

This makes capital availability as important as technology. Lower-cost financing could determine whether emerging economies can build clean power systems quickly enough to meet the proposed target.

Another concern is how electricity is generated. Higher electricity consumption does not automatically reduce emissions if new demand is supplied by coal or other high-carbon fuels.

Governments therefore need to link electrification targets with renewable generation, grid expansion and the gradual retirement of fossil-based capacity.

For metals producers, the outcome matters significantly. A successful global electrification push would create strong structural demand, while delays caused by financing constraints could produce a more uneven regional market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A 35% electrification target would effectively become a global infrastructure and metals target as much as a climate goal. The biggest constraint may not be technology, but whether grids, financing and critical material supply can expand fast enough to support it.

Derichebourg Recycling Results Rise on Strong Non-Ferrous Demand

Derichebourg

Derichebourg recycling results strengthened in the first half of its 2025-26 financial year as higher non-ferrous metal volumes and prices lifted profitability. The French recycling group reported Ebitda of €177.8mn for October-March, up almost 10% from a year earlier.

Derichebourg recycling results also benefited from rising copper and aluminium volumes. The company expects similar performance in the April-September second half, supported by firm non-ferrous demand and improving conditions for ferrous scrap.

Derichebourg recycling results highlight a broader shift in Europe. Scrap is becoming more strategically valuable as steelmakers respond to CBAM, new trade measures and pressure to reduce carbon intensity.

Full-year Ebitda is expected at €350mn-370mn. The company’s share price also moved above €10 following the results announcement, from around €9.50 previously.

Copper and Aluminium Lift Non-Ferrous Performance

Derichebourg sold 357,100t of non-ferrous metals during the first half, up 4.4% from a year earlier. Segment revenue increased by almost 20% to €1bn as average non-ferrous prices rose by nearly 15%.

Copper delivered the strongest volume increase, with sales rising by 17%. Aluminium volumes excluding ingots increased by 10%.

These gains show continued demand for recycled metals tied to electrification, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing. Copper scrap is particularly important as buyers look for additional metal units outside constrained primary mine supply.

Aluminium recycling also benefits from tighter sustainability requirements. Secondary aluminium requires significantly less energy than primary production and can help manufacturers lower embedded carbon.

But automotive weakness affected some product categories. Aluminium ingot sales fell by 15%, while lead volumes declined by 4%.

This divergence shows that scrap demand depends heavily on end-use exposure. Copper and processed aluminium benefited from broader industrial demand, while automotive-linked products remained under pressure.

For recyclers, the value proposition is becoming stronger. Industrial customers increasingly need not only scrap availability, but consistent chemistry, traceability and reliable processing.

CBAM and Steel Trade Measures Strengthen Scrap Outlook

Derichebourg’s ferrous scrap revenue fell by 5% to €649.9mn because weaker average prices offset higher sales volumes. Ferrous scrap shipments still increased by 2.2% to 2.13mn t.

European mills increased scrap purchasing ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entering force in January. Some steelmakers have shifted toward European feedstock to avoid complex CBAM calculations and uncertainty over import-related costs.

This creates a structural advantage for regional scrap suppliers. As carbon becomes part of steel procurement decisions, recycled feedstock can support lower-emission electric arc furnace production and reduce exposure to imported raw materials.

Derichebourg also expects new EU steel quotas and customs duties introduced in July to support ferrous scrap demand. These measures could encourage more regional production and strengthen demand for domestically sourced scrap.

Turkey’s higher steel output has provided additional support because the country remains a major buyer in the international scrap market.

Derichebourg is also expanding its geographic reach through the planned acquisition of Scholz Recycling. Scholz operates 180 sites, including joint ventures, across Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Austria and Romania.

The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026. It will significantly strengthen Derichebourg’s footprint in eastern Europe and expand access to scrap collection networks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European scrap is becoming an industrial resource rather than simply a recycling product. CBAM, trade protection and stronger demand for low-carbon metals are increasing the strategic value of large collection and processing networks.

Cop 31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Cop 31

Cop 31 electrification target proposed by Turkey would lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 20% today. The IEA is urging countries to support the goal at the November climate summit in Antalya.

Cop 31 electrification target would place power systems at the centre of the next phase of global decarbonisation. Reaching the target would require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and end-use electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

Cop 31 electrification target also carries major implications for metals demand. More electricity infrastructure would support long-term consumption of copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other inputs used in transmission, storage and renewable generation.

The political challenge is financing. Developing countries warned that higher borrowing costs, limited technology access and weak capital availability could prevent them from participating in the transition at the same pace as wealthier economies.

Grid Investment and Finance Will Determine Delivery

Turkey proposed the 35% electrification goal during climate talks in Bonn. The IEA said the target is achievable and could become a major legacy of Cop 31 if governments reach agreement.

However, expanding electricity use requires far more than adding renewable generation. Countries need transmission lines, distribution networks, transformers, substations, storage systems and digital grid infrastructure.

That creates a significant industrial demand signal. Copper will be central to cables, transformers and electrical equipment, while aluminium will remain critical for transmission conductors and lightweight electrical applications.

Battery storage will also become more important as renewable penetration rises. This supports demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials, while alternative storage technologies could create additional demand for vanadium, zinc and other metals.

Developing economies face the biggest financing challenge. High borrowing costs can make power projects significantly more expensive even when renewable resources are strong.

Turkey and Australia therefore want finance to sit alongside electrification in the Cop 31 agenda. Ministers from Ethiopia, Colombia and other developing countries also stressed that implementation will depend on better access to capital and technology.

Without that support, electrification could widen industrial inequality. Countries with cheaper financing would build grids and clean power faster, while higher-risk markets could remain dependent on older infrastructure and more expensive energy.

Clean Power Source Will Decide Climate Impact

Electrification alone does not guarantee lower emissions. The climate benefit depends on how the additional electricity is generated.

Civil society groups and governments have warned that rising electricity consumption can still be supplied by coal, gas or other fossil fuels. That means the electrification target must be linked with clean generation expansion and fossil fuel transition policies.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance has called for governments to integrate electrification, clean power build-out and coal transition scenarios. It warned that rapid power demand growth could otherwise lock countries into new coal capacity.

Colombia also argued that faster renewable deployment is not enough without addressing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This debate will remain central to negotiations around the broader transition away from fossil energy.

For industrial supply chains, the distinction matters. A clean electrification pathway creates sustained demand for renewable generation, grids, batteries and low-carbon materials. A fossil-heavy pathway may still increase metals demand, but with a much weaker emissions benefit.

The 35% target therefore represents more than an energy consumption metric. It would influence capital allocation, power infrastructure planning and material demand across multiple sectors for the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A global electrification target would be a major structural driver for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and storage materials. But without affordable finance and clean generation, electrification could expand electricity demand faster than it reduces emissions.

Derichebourg Recycling Results Rise on Non-Ferrous Strength and Scrap Policy Support

Chhattisgarh, Ferro‑alloy

Derichebourg recycling results improved in the first half of the company’s 2025-26 financial year as stronger non-ferrous demand, higher prices and increased metal volumes lifted earnings. The French recycling group reported Ebitda of €177.8mn for October-March, up almost 10% from a year earlier.

Derichebourg recycling results show how metal recyclers are benefiting from two linked forces. Non-ferrous scrap demand remains firm, while European steel policy is encouraging mills to source more feedstock from within the region.

Derichebourg recycling results also point to continued momentum in the second half. The company expects April-September performance to be comparable to the first half and forecasts full-year Ebitda of €350mn-370mn.

The market responded positively to the filing, with Derichebourg’s share price rising above €10 from €9.50 after the results were released.

Non-Ferrous Metals Drive Earnings Growth

Non-ferrous metals were the main earnings driver. Derichebourg sold 357,100t of non-ferrous metals in the first half, up 4.4% from a year earlier.

Revenue from the non-ferrous segment rose by nearly 20% to €1bn. The average non-ferrous price was almost 15% higher than in the same period last year.

Copper sales were especially strong, rising by 17%. Aluminium sales, excluding ingots, increased by 10%, supported by firm industrial demand.

However, the picture was not uniformly positive. Aluminium ingot sales fell by 15%, while lead sales dropped by 4%, mainly because of weaker demand from the automotive industry.

This split matters for recyclers. Copper and aluminium scrap remain exposed to electrification, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing, while automotive weakness can still pressure selected downstream products.

Derichebourg’s non-ferrous performance shows that scrap is becoming a strategic raw material, not only a waste recovery business. Buyers increasingly need reliable recycled metal flows for cost control, carbon reduction and supply security.

CBAM and Steel Quotas Support Ferrous Scrap Outlook

Ferrous scrap revenue fell by 5% to €649.9mn because lower average prices offset higher volumes. Derichebourg sold 2.13mn t of ferrous scrap, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

European mills increased scrap purchases ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism coming into force in January. CBAM has added complexity to imported steel and raw material calculations, pushing some steelmakers toward European suppliers.

The company also expects ferrous scrap demand to strengthen after the EU introduces new steel quotas and customs duties in July. These measures could support regional scrap flows by making local feedstock more attractive.

Turkey also contributed to stronger scrap demand as steel production increased. That remains important because Turkish mills are major seaborne scrap buyers and can influence European collection and export markets.

Derichebourg is also expanding geographically. The company agreed to acquire Germany’s Scholz Recycling, which operates 180 sites including joint ventures across Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Austria and Romania.

The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026. It will strengthen Derichebourg’s recycling network in eastern Europe, where its presence has been smaller.

The acquisition fits the wider market direction. European recyclers are scaling up as policy, carbon rules and industrial demand make scrap supply more valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Derichebourg’s results show that recycling is becoming a policy-supported industrial supply chain. CBAM, steel trade measures and non-ferrous demand are turning scrap networks into strategic assets for European metals security.

ICJ Climate Ruling Gains UN Backing as Oil Powers Push Back

International Court of Justice

ICJ climate ruling support has gained global political weight after the UN general assembly adopted a resolution welcoming the court’s advisory opinion on states’ obligations to protect the climate system. The vote shows that climate policy is increasingly moving into legal and trade-risk territory.

The ICJ climate ruling is not legally binding, but it carries legal and moral authority that could influence future climate litigation. That makes it important for energy, mining, metals and industrial companies exposed to emissions, fossil fuels and transition-linked regulation.

The ICJ climate ruling was backed by 141 countries, including China. Only eight countries opposed the resolution, including the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s three largest oil producers.

The divide highlights a growing strategic split. Most countries are accepting stronger legal language around climate responsibility, while major fossil fuel producers are resisting efforts that could accelerate pressure on oil, gas and coal.

Climate Duties Move From Politics Toward Legal Risk

The UN resolution calls on member states to take all possible steps to avoid significant damage to the climate and environment. It also urges countries to follow through on their Paris Agreement commitments.

Vanuatu, which led the resolution, framed the issue as a matter of legal obligation rather than political discretion. That language is important because it gives climate policy a stronger legal foundation.

For industry, the risk is clear. Even if the advisory opinion is not binding, it may support future lawsuits, regulatory challenges and pressure on governments to tighten climate rules.

The resolution also reinforces earlier climate summit outcomes. It points to keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

That matters for metals demand. Stronger climate implementation supports long-term demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other materials tied to grids, renewables, batteries and electrification.

However, it also raises pressure on high-emission industrial sectors. Steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, mining and refining will face closer scrutiny over emissions, power sources and supply-chain transparency.

Oil Producers Resist While Finance Divide Remains

The opposition from the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia shows that fossil fuel producers remain wary of climate language that could constrain future energy policy. The US objected to the resolution, arguing that it included inappropriate political demands related to fossil fuels.

Russia also opposed the measure, saying the resolution risked making the ICJ opinion mandatory in nature and selectively used the advisory opinion and climate summit outcomes.

Several developing and fossil fuel-producing countries focused on another issue: finance. India, Iraq and Algeria abstained, arguing that the resolution placed too much emphasis on emissions cuts while not adequately addressing climate finance and adaptation support.

This dispute will remain central to future climate negotiations. Developing economies want funding to support decarbonisation, adaptation and industrial transition, while developed countries and climate-vulnerable states want faster action on emissions.

Brazil, the Cop 30 president, supported the resolution. Turkey, which will host Cop 31 in Antalya, abstained, while Australia supported the text but said that support should not be read as agreement with every part of the advisory opinion.

For industrial markets, the vote confirms that climate policy is not retreating. It is becoming more legal, more geopolitical and more connected to trade, finance and supply-chain decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UN vote turns climate responsibility into a stronger legal signal for governments and industry. For metals and mining, the opportunity is rising demand from electrification, but the risk is higher scrutiny over emissions, origin and financing.

VSMPO-Avisma Titanium Pipes to Support Egypt’s El Dabaa Nuclear Plant

VSMPO-Avisma

VSMPO-Avisma titanium pipes will be supplied to Egypt’s El Dabaa nuclear power plant, strengthening Russia’s role in critical materials supply for nuclear infrastructure. The Russian titanium producer will deliver 150t of titanium pipes for integrated equipment in unit 4 of the project.

VSMPO-Avisma titanium pipes are commercially pure welded products made at the company’s Verkhnyaya Salda facility. The company launched serial production of CP welded titanium pipes in March.

VSMPO-Avisma titanium pipes are relevant because CP titanium is widely used in heat exchangers and cooling systems. Its corrosion resistance makes it suitable for nuclear power plants that rely on seawater cooling or other aggressive operating environments.

The supply deal also reinforces the strategic link between titanium manufacturing and nuclear energy construction. As countries build new reactors, demand rises for corrosion-resistant, qualified and reliable metal components.

CP Titanium Supports Nuclear Cooling Reliability

Commercially pure titanium is valued in heat exchangers because it resists corrosion in chloride-rich environments. That makes it especially useful in power plants located near seawater sources.

El Dabaa’s equipment will require materials that can operate reliably over long periods. Titanium pipes can reduce corrosion risk, extend service life and improve the reliability of cooling-related systems.

The 150t order also shows that nuclear projects create specialised demand for titanium beyond aerospace and defence. Energy infrastructure can absorb high-value titanium products where performance and durability are essential.

VSMPO-Avisma has already supplied welded titanium tubes for unit 4 of Turkey’s Akkuyu nuclear power plant. That project was also built using a Russian design.

This track record gives the company a stronger position in Rosatom-linked international nuclear projects. It also shows how Russia can bundle reactor construction with domestic metal and component supply.

El Dabaa Extends Russia’s Nuclear Industrial Reach

Russia’s state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is building the 4.8GW El Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt. Phase one is expected to come online in 2028, while all four units are planned to be operational by 2030.

Construction of unit 4 began in January 2024. The titanium pipes supplied by VSMPO-Avisma will support that unit’s equipment package.

The project is important for Egypt’s long-term energy strategy. Nuclear power can provide baseload electricity, reduce fuel import exposure and diversify the country’s energy mix.

For Russia, El Dabaa extends its industrial influence through nuclear technology, engineering services and material supply. Titanium pipes are only one component, but they show how nuclear export projects can support wider Russian industrial chains.

For titanium markets, the order confirms that corrosion-resistant CP titanium remains a strategic material for energy infrastructure. Demand from nuclear, desalination, chemical processing and marine systems can provide industrial support outside cyclical aerospace markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The El Dabaa order shows that titanium’s strategic value extends well beyond aircraft structures. Nuclear projects need materials that can survive corrosive environments for decades, and CP titanium remains one of the key metals for that role.

Renewables Energy Security Message Shapes Cop 31 Climate Agenda

Renewables energy

Renewables energy security is becoming a central policy message ahead of the Cop 31 climate summit, as Turkey and Australia argue that fossil fuels no longer guarantee stable energy supply. The two countries said stronger decarbonisation, electrification and alternative energy sources are now essential to national resilience.

Turkey will host Cop 31 in Antalya, while Australia will lead climate negotiations. Both countries are preparing the summit against the backdrop of energy market disruption caused by the war in the Mideast Gulf and shipping interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Renewables energy security is now being framed not only as a climate issue, but also as a sovereignty issue. Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum said countries should invest in clean energy sources, including renewables, hydrogen and ammonia, to support stable and independent development.

The message reflects a wider shift in energy policy. Fossil fuels once dominated energy security thinking because they offered high-density supply and established infrastructure. But recent geopolitical shocks have shown that oil, gas and coal supply chains can be exposed to sanctions, shipping blockages and regional conflict.

Fossil Fuel Risk Pushes Electrification Up the Policy Agenda

The Mideast Gulf energy crisis has strengthened the argument that fossil fuel dependence creates vulnerability. Supply routes can be disrupted, prices can spike and importing countries can quickly face inflation, industrial cost pressure and energy security concerns.

Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen said the crisis creates an opportunity to show that energy reliability, sovereignty and security can move together with strong decarbonisation. His message was clear: doubling down on fossil fuels is not the answer.

That argument gives renewables energy security a sharper industrial meaning. Wind and solar resources cannot be sanctioned in the same way as seaborne fossil fuels. They also reduce exposure to imported fuel prices once infrastructure is built.

Electrification will therefore become more important in the Cop 31 discussion. Germany has already pushed for a stronger debate on how countries can advance electrification before the summit.

This matters for metals and manufacturing. Electrification requires more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, rare earth magnets, batteries, power electronics, transformers, grid equipment and storage systems. The shift away from fossil fuels therefore increases demand for industrial materials that support clean power systems.

Hydrogen and ammonia also remain part of Turkey’s energy transition vision. These fuels could support hard-to-abate sectors, industrial heat, shipping, fertilisers and long-duration energy storage, but they require large amounts of renewable electricity and new infrastructure.

The policy direction is not only about replacing fuels. It is about rebuilding energy systems around grids, storage, clean molecules and domestic generation capacity.

Cop 31 Could Turn Energy Security Into a Decarbonisation Driver

Cop 31 is expected to revisit the global transition away from fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28 in 2023, while developed countries agreed at Cop 29 to provide $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035.

Turkey is now urging countries to fulfil earlier commitments on finance and energy. Kurum also called on countries that have not submitted updated nationally determined contributions to do so.

This creates pressure before Cop 31. Around 43 countries still need to submit climate plans, according to Kurum. Without credible national plans, the global transition risks remaining a statement rather than an implementation programme.

Australia pointed to three processes already under way before Cop 31. These include the Belem roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the global implementation accelerator and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C.

The challenge will be coordination. Countries have already agreed on high-level climate direction, but implementation remains uneven. Clean energy investment, grid expansion, permitting, financing and critical mineral supply all need to move faster.

For resource markets, the message is clear. Renewables energy security will not reduce dependence on supply chains. It will shift dependence from fossil fuel flows toward metals, minerals, equipment and industrial manufacturing capacity.

That creates a new form of energy security risk. Countries that build renewable power but lack access to copper, rare earths, battery metals, transformers, power electronics or grid equipment may still face strategic exposure.

Cop 31 could therefore strengthen demand for policies that connect climate action with supply-chain resilience. Energy transition goals will require not only emissions targets, but also mineral security, manufacturing investment and infrastructure deployment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The renewables energy security argument marks a turning point in climate politics. The next energy security race will be fought through grids, storage, critical minerals and clean manufacturing capacity, not only through control of fossil fuel routes.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill Restart Targets Domestic Tinplate Supply Security

US Steel

US Steel Gary Tin Mill production is set to restart in early 2027 as the integrated steel producer moves to rebuild domestic tin coated steel supply. The idled facility is part of US Steel’s wider Gary Works complex in Indiana.

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill has roughly 500,000 short tons of idled capacity across two production lines. The mill has been offline since 2022, but the company now plans to bring it back after maintenance, equipment inspection, material procurement and workforce preparation.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart costs are estimated at $15mn-20mn. The investment is relatively modest compared with a greenfield project, but the industrial significance is larger because tin coated steel has become a more sensitive domestic supply issue.

The restart comes as US customers seek more dependable local supply for packaging and industrial applications. It also reflects a wider shift toward trade protection, domestic manufacturing resilience and reduced exposure to imported coated steel products.

Trade Cases Support Domestic Tin Coated Steel Production

US Steel framed the restart as a response to domestic tin demand in a more protectionist trade environment. The company said customers are increasingly focused on long-term domestic supply security.

On 9 April, US Steel and the United Steelworkers union filed an antidumping duty case against China, Taiwan and Turkey. The case covers imports of tin and chromium coated sheet steel.

A separate countervailing duty case was also filed against subsidised tin coated steel products from China. These trade actions could support domestic producers if authorities determine that imports are unfairly priced or subsidised.

The timing is important. Restarting the Gary Tin Mill would give US Steel more capacity to serve customers if duties raise import costs or reduce import availability.

Tin coated steel is used in food and beverage packaging, aerosol products and oil filtration goods. These are not speculative markets. They are established industrial and consumer supply chains where reliability, quality and delivery timing matter.

The restart also gives US Steel a stronger position in value-added flat steel. Tinplate and coated sheet require specific finishing capability and customer qualification, making them more specialised than commodity hot-rolled or cold-rolled products.

Packaging and Industrial Buyers Seek Reliable Local Supply

The Gary Tin Mill restart reflects the growing importance of domestic supply in packaging materials. Food and beverage packaging depends on consistent access to tin coated steel, especially for cans and other shelf-stable products.

Aerosol products and oil filtration goods also rely on coated steel for corrosion resistance, formability and product protection. These applications require stable quality and predictable supply from qualified mills.

Domestic buyers have become more sensitive to import risk. Tariffs, antidumping cases, logistics disruption and geopolitical uncertainty can all affect material availability and pricing.

US Steel’s restart could help reduce that risk by returning idled capacity to the market. However, the impact will depend on how smoothly the company completes maintenance and prepares the required workforce.

The early 2027 timeline also matters. Buyers facing uncertainty in 2026 will not see immediate supply relief, but the restart could improve medium-term market confidence.

For the US steel industry, the project shows how idled finishing capacity can regain strategic value under trade protection. Instead of building new capacity from scratch, companies can reactivate existing assets when market conditions and policy support improve.

The broader message is clear. Domestic steel supply security is expanding beyond primary steelmaking. Coated, finished and application-specific steel products are also becoming part of the industrial resilience debate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart shows how trade protection can revive idled downstream steel capacity. The key question is whether domestic buyers will commit enough demand to support the restart beyond the current tariff and trade-case cycle.

Kibar Americas Fairmont Facility Acquisition Gives Assan Its First US Aluminum Plant

Kibar Americas

Kibar Americas Fairmont facility acquisition gave Turkey-based Assan Aluminyum its first manufacturing footprint in the US. Kibar Americas, a subsidiary of Assan, bought Novelis’ former aluminum rolling facility in Fairmont, West Virginia.

The deal gives Kibar Americas an established industrial site with cold-rolling and finishing capabilities. The 380,000ft² facility is expected to support production of aluminum foil products, although the company is still evaluating future use options.

Kibar Americas Fairmont facility plans matter because aluminum foil demand remains tied to packaging, industrial applications, energy systems, electronics, and flexible materials supply chains. A US manufacturing base also gives Assan a closer position to North American customers.

Fairmont Site Offers Ready Aluminum Rolling Infrastructure

The former Novelis site gives Kibar Americas an existing production platform rather than a greenfield project. Its cold-rolling mill and finishing capabilities could shorten the path toward US-based aluminum foil output.

Novelis announced in March 2025 that it would close the Fairmont facility by 30 June 2025 as part of a portfolio consolidation plan. Kibar’s acquisition keeps the site inside the aluminum value chain and could preserve industrial optionality in West Virginia.

The transaction details were not disclosed. However, the strategic meaning is clear: Kibar Americas Fairmont facility acquisition allows Assan to expand beyond its Turkish production base and enter the US market with physical manufacturing capacity.

Assan Aluminyum Extends Its Foil Strategy Into the US

Assan Aluminyum currently has 360,000 t/yr of flat-rolled aluminum capacity across its Istanbul and Kocaeli facilities. Of that total, 130,000 t/yr is dedicated to aluminum foil output.

The Fairmont acquisition could complement that existing foil platform. It may help Assan reduce logistics distance, improve customer responsiveness, and manage trade or tariff exposure in the North American market.

For the US aluminum sector, the deal shows continuing interest in downstream rolling and foil capacity. While primary aluminum production faces power-cost pressure, downstream aluminum processing remains strategically relevant for packaging, manufacturing, automotive, and industrial supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kibar’s move shows that established US rolling assets still carry strategic value, even after major producers consolidate capacity. For Assan, the Fairmont site could become a foothold for building a North American aluminum foil platform rather than only an overseas acquisition.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Fell to 2009 Low After Russian Ban

Ferro-Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports fell to their lowest level since 2009 in 2025 after sanctions blocked Russian material from entering the bloc directly or through Baltic transit routes. EU countries imported 30,171t of ferro-titanium last year, down 36% from 47,296t in 2024.

The sharp decline showed how deeply the European ferro-titanium market had depended on Russian supply and Baltic logistics. Estonia, Poland, and Latvia together accounted for 12,830t of EU supply, but the structure of that supply changed significantly once Russian-origin ferro-titanium was barred.

EU ferro-titanium imports from Estonia halved on the year to 6,384t. The decline suggests that Estonian flows now more closely reflect local production rather than Russian material transiting through the country.

Sanctions Shifted Supply Toward Estonia, Poland and India

Estonia remained the EU’s largest ferro-titanium supplier in 2025, while Poland became the second-largest intra-EU source. Polish shipments rose by a quarter to 3,834t, showing that European buyers were turning more heavily to regional producers after the Russian ban.

Imports from the UK fell 27% to 3,468t after the closure of TiVac last summer. Most of TiVac’s former volumes are expected to shift to Estonia, where FE Mottram is scaling up operations in Ahtme, while Transition Metals continues to operate in the UK.

India became a larger alternative supplier as exports to the EU rose 171% to 2,310t. Turkey’s shipments also surged to 1,000t, although these flows remain unclear because Turkey is not a known ferro-titanium producer.

Russian ferro-titanium imports fell to just 463t in 2025 after full implementation of EU sanctions on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. Russian exports largely moved to Asia, with Chinese imports from Russia reaching a record 6,381t last year.

Russian Scrap Flows Rose Before Late-Year Slowdown

Titanium scrap became a temporary workaround because Russian titanium scrap was not covered by EU sanctions. EU imports of Russian scrap doubled to 2,517t in 2025, with 2,406t entering Estonia.

Estonia then re-exported 2,277t of titanium scrap last year, showing how scrap flows supported the regional ferro-titanium supply chain after the ban on Russian ferro-alloys. However, this trade also weakened sharply toward year-end, with EU imports falling to 36t in December and 37t in January 2026.

European ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.98-5.33/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in 2025, down 28% from 2024. Weak steel mill consumption kept prices under pressure for most of the year.

The market later rebounded from multi-year lows in December. Supply concerns linked to Latvian producer LLR-Ecotech first supported the recovery, before higher scrap costs allowed other producers to raise offers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU ferro-titanium market is now being rebuilt around sanctions compliance, regional production, and scrap availability. The Russian ban reduced headline imports, but it also exposed Europe’s dependence on flexible titanium scrap flows and a small group of regional producers.

Cayeli Copper-Zinc Mine Sale Sharpens First Quantum’s Core Asset Strategy

First Quantum

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine is changing hands as First Quantum moves to simplify its portfolio and concentrate capital on core operations. The Canada-based miner has agreed to sell the Turkish mine to Cengiz Insaat for $340 million in cash.

The transaction is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026. The purchase price includes a $50 million advance already paid by Cengiz, which will be credited against the final payment at closing.

First Quantum’s decision reflects a disciplined portfolio shift. The company is selling a long-running, non-core copper and zinc asset while copper remains strategically important and zinc supply concerns continue to support market attention.

First Quantum Refocuses While Turkey Gains a Longer-Life Base Metals Asset

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine has operated since 1994 on Turkey’s northeastern Black Sea coast. The asset produced 2,427 tonnes of copper and 909 tonnes of zinc in the fourth quarter, confirming its continued role as a modest but established concentrate supplier.

First Quantum has set 2026 guidance for Cayeli at 9,000–11,000 tonnes of copper and 4,000 tonnes of zinc. That output is not large in global terms, but it remains relevant for regional smelting, concentrate flows, and Turkey’s domestic mining base.

Cengiz Insaat is acquiring more than a mature mine. The discovery of the South Orebody in 2025 added a newly defined copper and zinc resource and extended Cayeli’s operating life to 2036. That gives the buyer a clearer runway to manage production, exploration, and downstream supply relationships.

Copper and Zinc Supply Tightness Supports Strategic Interest

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine sale comes as copper demand continues to benefit from electrification, grid investment, industrial expansion, and energy transition infrastructure. Even smaller operating mines can gain strategic importance when global copper supply growth remains constrained.

Zinc also remains exposed to supply-side risks. Mine closures, grade pressure, and uneven concentrate availability have kept attention on assets that can deliver steady zinc units into regional markets.

For First Quantum, the sale provides cash and management focus. For Cengiz, the deal strengthens exposure to copper and zinc at a time when base metals assets with defined mine life are becoming harder to secure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This transaction is not only a portfolio cleanup by First Quantum. It also shows how regional mining groups are moving to secure operating base metals assets before copper and zinc supply pressure becomes more visible.

BAE Systems Defence Demand Lifts Sales and Strengthens Backlog

BAE Systems

BAE Systems defence demand pushed the company to stronger sales and a larger order book in 2025. The UK defence group reported sales of £30.7bn, up 10pc from the previous year. Orders also reached £36.8bn, lifting backlog to £83.6bn. As a result, BAE Systems defence demand is becoming a clear signal of how geopolitical tension is feeding industrial growth.

This matters because BAE Systems sales growth is tied directly to rising military spending across Europe and beyond. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased urgency around fighter aircraft, defence systems, and military readiness. That is supporting both current production and future programme visibility. Therefore, BAE Systems defence demand now carries wider significance for the aerospace and defence supply chain.

Defence Metals Demand Is Rising Alongside Aircraft and Systems Output

Defence metals demand is also rising as major programmes expand. BAE’s portfolio uses titanium and aluminium in airframes and structures, while high-temperature alloys remain critical for engines. Infra-red emitters, lasers, and imaging systems also rely on minor metals such as gallium and germanium. Consequently, BAE Systems sales growth matters not only for defence primes, but also for metals and advanced materials suppliers.

The Eurofighter Typhoon adds another important layer to that story. Turkey’s planned acquisition of 20 Typhoon aircraft is expected to be worth £4.6bn to BAE. That programme supports a multinational industrial base across the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy. As a result, BAE Systems defence demand is helping sustain both national and cross-border aerospace manufacturing.

Aerospace Alloy Demand Faces Opportunity and Labour Risk

Aerospace alloy demand should remain firm if BAE meets its 2026 sales growth target of 7-9pc. That outlook suggests the company still sees healthy programme momentum despite an already strong 2025. Suppliers tied to structures, engines, and advanced components may benefit from that continued growth. Therefore, BAE Systems sales growth is likely to keep supporting upstream metals demand.

However, labour disruption remains a near-term risk. Strike action continues at BAE’s Warton and Samlesbury sites in Lancashire, where parts for Typhoon and F-35 jets are produced. More than 1,000 workers are involved in the current dispute. Meanwhile, the gap between strong profits and contested pay talks could create operational pressure if the issue drags on.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BAE’s results show that defence demand is no longer a short-cycle boost. It is becoming a structural driver for aerospace manufacturing and strategic metals consumption. The bigger question now is whether supply chains and labour stability can keep pace with the new defence growth cycle.

COP31 climate summit in Turkey cements a split-host model for 2026

Cop 31

COP31 climate summit in Turkey will take place in 2026 under a Turkey-Australia hosting compromise. The deal ends months of uncertainty that threatened multilateral climate action. Australia will steer negotiations, while Turkey will run the on-the-ground conference.

Leaders framed the compromise as a practical win for climate diplomacy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned that a venue deadlock would damage global cooperation. Therefore, the agreement protects process stability as governments chase tougher emissions and finance goals.

Australia’s negotiation role elevates Pacific climate finance

Australia will use its COP role to spotlight Pacific climate finance. Chris Bowen will chair negotiations and coordinate with Turkey’s COP presidency. Officials plan a pre-COP meeting on the Pacific Resilience Facility to accelerate adaptation funding. The Pacific Islands Forum created the facility to boost disaster resilience.

COP31 logistics clarity reduces the risk of a Bonn fallback

The compromise keeps the 2026 summit from moving to the UN Climate Change Secretariat venue. That fallback would have cut political momentum during COP30 in Brazil. Therefore, COP31 climate summit in Turkey now gives clearer timelines for diplomacy and business planning. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is positioned to host COP32 in 2027 in Addis Ababa. The African Group has endorsed the bid, which could speed final approval.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This COP31 split role may speed talks, but it can blur accountability. However, stronger climate finance can accelerate grid metals demand for copper, aluminium, and rare earths. Therefore, suppliers should track policy signals that affect permitting, trade, and strategic stockpiles.

Foreign investment accelerates Turkey stainless steel growth as re-rolling hub emerges

Stainless Steel

Turkey stainless steel growth is reshaping the country from a net importer into a re-rolling and processing hub. Turkey stainless steel growth is driven by foreign investment, shifting trade flows and a policy push to protect local value addition. As a result, Turkey stainless steel growth now sits at the centre of regional stainless supply chains.

Foreign investors underpin Turkey stainless steel growth

Turkey has become the only major stainless consumer without melting capacity, yet it plays a growing trade role. The country still imports all flat and semi-finished stainless products, but its position in re-rolling and processing continues to strengthen. Imports of flat-rolled stainless not further worked than hot-rolled reached about 250,000t in 2024, up by 15pc on the year.

However, imports of hot-rolled and cold-rolled flat products fell by around 8pc to below 70,000t, showing more local processing. Exports of flat-rolled stainless fell to just over 100,000t in 2024, down from 230,000t in 2022. This export drop partly reflects stronger domestic stainless consumption after the 2023 earthquake and more onshore value retention.

Foreign capital sits at the heart of Turkey stainless steel growth. Posco’s Assan TST remains the largest local cold-rolled stainless producer and has delivered more than 2mn t since 2013. Taiwan’s YC INOX added a 4,000 t/month tube operation in 2022, with pickling capacity that allows direct use of hot-rolled semi-finished feed. These investments reduce reliance on imported finished products and lift Turkey’s role in regional supply chains.

Policy protection and new projects reinforce Turkey stainless steel growth

New capacity plans will further expand Turkey stainless steel growth over the next decade. China’s Yongjin Technology plans a 400,000 t/yr cold-rolling mill at Yalova, targeting completion in 2027. Domestic service centre Saritas Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS aims for an 800,000 t/yr stainless facility in four phases, with 400,000 t/yr of cold-rolled capacity expected online from 2027.

Ankara is matching this investment wave with trade defence tools to shield Turkey stainless steel growth. The government raised import duties on cold-rolled stainless steel coil from 8pc to 12pc in December 2023. At the same time, it cut duty on stainless plate to zero and kept hot-rolled coil duties at 2pc, encouraging inbound semi-finished feed for further processing.

Turkey has also launched anti-dumping investigations to guard its expanding base. Authorities are probing imports of cold-rolled plate and coil from Indonesia and China following complaints from Posco Assan TST and Celik Sanayi. Existing anti-dumping duties on welded stainless tubes from China and Taiwan were extended by five years in June. Higher rates apply to most suppliers, with reduced duties for a few named producers such as Foshan Vinmay and YC INOX. These measures aim to preserve margins for local processors as Turkey stainless steel growth accelerates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Turkey’s stainless sector is evolving into a classic “no-melt, high-processing” model backed by Asian and domestic capital. If trade defence remains targeted and predictable, Turkey can deepen its hub role without triggering severe retaliation or supply distortions. The next test will be whether planned capacities absorb regional demand or ignite a new wave of competitive exports.

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to deepen copper exposure

Horizon Copper

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper for $196 million, advancing its copper growth strategy. The streaming and royalty company will buy all Horizon shares except Sandstorm’s. The cash offer is C$2 per share, or $1.46 per share. Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to consolidate high-quality copper interests.

Deal terms and portfolio exposure

The transaction values Horizon’s 86.49 million outstanding shares at the stated cash price. Horizon owns a 1.66% net profit interest in Peru’s Antamina mine. The open-pit operation ranks among the world’s largest copper producers. Horizon also holds 30% of the Hod Maden copper-gold project in Turkey.

Horizon owns 24% of Entrée Resources, providing exposure to Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. In a parallel move, Royal Gold agreed to acquire Sandstorm for $3.5 billion. Each deal depends on the other’s completion to close. Therefore, execution will follow coordinated regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Strategic rationale and copper market implications

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to expand long-life, low-cost copper optionality. The portfolio adds tier-one assets across the Americas and Eurasia. As a result, cash flow diversity and duration should improve. Streaming economics also limit operating cost exposure and inflation risk.

This combination tightens alignment with global copper fundamentals. Antamina, Hod Maden, and Oyu Tolgoi anchor growth into the next cycle. Meanwhile, the Sandstorm acquisition scales platform reach and deal flow. Therefore, portfolio depth supports disciplined capital allocation through price volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a scale play into copper with premier asset linkages. Integration discipline and royalty contract terms will determine value capture. Watch closing timelines, Antamina profitability, and Hod Maden development milestones.

Westwin Signs $350mn Nickel Supply Deal with Turkey’s Golden Age FZE

Westwin Elements

Expanding US Nickel Refining Reach

US nickel firm Westwin Elements has secured its first binding supply deal worth $350mn with Turkey’s Golden Age Free Zone Establishment (FZE). The Oklahoma-based company will provide 2,600 t/yr of carbonyl-nickel powder and class 1 nickel briquettes under the agreement. Golden Age FZE, a subsidiary of Apex Group-Turkiye, will serve as Westwin’s exclusive distributor and marketing partner across Turkey and neighboring regions.

Boosting Domestic Refining and Global Partnerships

Westwin operates the United States’ first nickel refinery and plans to expand output significantly. Production is set to grow from 18,000 t/yr to a nameplate capacity of 68,000 t/yr by 2034. The Turkish deal represents part of Westwin’s wider strategy to diversify its customer base and build supply contracts with original equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, the agreement aligns with broader US government efforts to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing, with President Donald Trump backing accelerated refining in Oklahoma since taking office.

The nickel supply deal not only reinforces US-Turkey trade ties but also demonstrates Westwin’s ambition to establish a global footprint in nickel refining. By pairing domestic capacity growth with targeted international partnerships, the company is positioning itself as a long-term supplier of high-purity nickel products essential for advanced manufacturing and clean energy applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Westwin’s $350mn nickel deal highlights the importance of expanding US refining capacity while building global partnerships. With Turkey acting as a gateway to surrounding markets, Westwin gains both regional influence and strategic diversification. This agreement also underscores how nickel is becoming central to both geopolitical strategies and industrial supply chains.

US Turkey LFP Battery Partnership Targets 7GWh Production by 2027

Our Next Energy

US Turkey LFP battery partnership emerged as Our Next Energy (ONE) contracted Turkish manufacturer Pomega Energy Storage Technologies to produce 7GWh of lithium iron phosphate battery cells. The strategic US Turkey LFP battery collaboration targets 2GWh production in 2026 escalating to 5GWh in 2027, supporting ONE's energy storage solutions for utility, commercial, and industrial customers while bridging manufacturing capacity before domestic US production commences.

Strategic Manufacturing Timeline Bridges International and Domestic Production

US Turkey LFP battery production will focus on ONE's 314Ah LFP battery cells manufactured at Pomega's Ankara facility. The Turkish facility maintains 3GWh installed capacity and currently undergoes qualification for global export markets. This partnership provides immediate manufacturing access while ONE develops its Michigan-based grid battery production line scheduled for 2027 operations.

Meanwhile, the collaboration enables ONE to meet near-term customer demands without delayed market entry. Founder and CEO Mujeeb Ijaz emphasized the partnership's role in supporting customer commitments during the transition to US-based manufacturing capabilities. The phased approach reduces market risks while ensuring continuous supply chain operations across international and domestic facilities.

Turkish Manufacturing Hub Supports Global Battery Supply Chains

However, Pomega's Ankara facility represents Turkey's growing position in global battery manufacturing ecosystems. The facility's 3GWh capacity and export qualification process demonstrate Turkish manufacturing capabilities in advanced energy storage technologies. Turkey's strategic geographic position provides advantageous access to European, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets for battery exports.

Therefore, the partnership leverages Turkey's industrial infrastructure while supporting ONE's expansion strategy across utility-scale energy storage markets. Turkish manufacturing costs and skilled workforce availability create competitive advantages for large-scale battery production. The collaboration also strengthens US-Turkey commercial relationships in critical technology sectors driving clean energy transitions.

Market Positioning for Utility-Scale Energy Storage Growth

Furthermore, the LFP battery production targets utility, commercial, and industrial energy storage applications experiencing rapid market expansion. Lithium iron phosphate technology offers safety and cost advantages compared to alternative battery chemistries, particularly for large-scale stationary storage installations. The 314Ah cell specification aligns with industry requirements for grid-scale energy storage systems.

As a result, ONE's dual-facility strategy positions the company competitively across North American and international markets during the critical 2026-2027 period. The Turkish production capacity provides flexibility while Michigan facility development progresses, ensuring market presence during peak demand growth. This geographic diversification reduces supply chain risks while maximizing market opportunities across multiple regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ONE's partnership with Turkish manufacturer Pomega exemplifies how US battery companies strategically leverage international manufacturing partnerships to bridge capacity gaps before domestic production scaling, particularly important as global LFP demand accelerates faster than domestic manufacturing development. The collaboration demonstrates Turkey's emerging role as a strategic manufacturing hub for critical battery technologies, positioning the country advantageously within global energy storage supply chains serving both European and American markets.

Magnesium Die-Casting Growth Constrained by China Supply Chain Dominance

International Magnesium Association (IMA)

Magnesium die-casting adoption remains limited despite cost advantages over aluminum, as supply chain risks and price volatility concerns overshadow material benefits. Primary magnesium prices have reached parity or dropped below aluminum prices over the past year, theoretically supporting substitution in automotive applications. However, magnesium die-casting expansion faces significant headwinds from China's 90% global market share and associated geopolitical supply risks that discourage automotive manufacturers from switching materials.

Material Advantages Drive Theoretical Demand for Magnesium Applications

Magnesium offers compelling technical advantages for automotive die-casting applications, particularly in electric vehicle lightweighting strategies. The metal's density equals approximately two-thirds that of aluminum, making it the lightest structural metal available for automotive components. Meanwhile, magnesium's lower melting point reduces energy consumption during casting processes, while higher thermal conductivity improves heat dissipation performance.

Automotive manufacturers currently use magnesium die-casting for engine blocks, transmission cases, steering wheels, and interior brackets where weight reduction delivers maximum benefit. These applications leverage magnesium's superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to aluminum alloys. However, aluminum maintains advantages in tensile strength for high-stress structural applications, limiting magnesium's potential market penetration.

Supply Chain Concentration Creates Investment Hesitation

China's overwhelming dominance of global magnesium production creates substantial supply security concerns for automotive manufacturers considering magnesium die-casting adoption. The country produces approximately 950,000 tonnes annually, representing 90% of global output, while other production remains limited to Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Israel. As a result, no active primary magnesium production exists in Europe or the United States following US Magnesium's suspension in November 2024.

Recent price volatility reinforced automotive industry caution regarding magnesium die-casting investments, with the 2021 price spike prompting some manufacturers to halt new magnesium component development. CM Group managing director Alan Clark noted that die-casters remain concerned about magnesium price exposure without sufficient long-term supply guarantees. Therefore, automotive companies prioritize aluminum's supply security over magnesium's material advantages and cost benefits.

Environmental restrictions, semi-coke limitations, slag disposal procedures, VAT enforcement, capacity cuts, and tight dolomite supply have compounded Chinese production volatility. Brazilian magnesium producer Rima's CEO Ricardo Vicintin emphasized that geopolitical concerns explain widespread reluctance to increase magnesium usage. Consequently, magnesium die-casting growth remains constrained despite favorable economics and technical performance characteristics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The magnesium die-casting market exemplifies how supply chain concentration can limit material adoption despite superior technical and economic attributes. While non-Chinese projects like Latrobe Magnesium, Verde Magnesium, and MFE Magnesium offer future diversification potential, none currently operate at commercial scale, leaving the automotive industry dependent on Chinese supply for the foreseeable future.