Foreign investment accelerates Turkey stainless steel growth as re-rolling hub emerges

Stainless Steel

Turkey stainless steel growth is reshaping the country from a net importer into a re-rolling and processing hub. Turkey stainless steel growth is driven by foreign investment, shifting trade flows and a policy push to protect local value addition. As a result, Turkey stainless steel growth now sits at the centre of regional stainless supply chains.

Foreign investors underpin Turkey stainless steel growth

Turkey has become the only major stainless consumer without melting capacity, yet it plays a growing trade role. The country still imports all flat and semi-finished stainless products, but its position in re-rolling and processing continues to strengthen. Imports of flat-rolled stainless not further worked than hot-rolled reached about 250,000t in 2024, up by 15pc on the year.

However, imports of hot-rolled and cold-rolled flat products fell by around 8pc to below 70,000t, showing more local processing. Exports of flat-rolled stainless fell to just over 100,000t in 2024, down from 230,000t in 2022. This export drop partly reflects stronger domestic stainless consumption after the 2023 earthquake and more onshore value retention.

Foreign capital sits at the heart of Turkey stainless steel growth. Posco’s Assan TST remains the largest local cold-rolled stainless producer and has delivered more than 2mn t since 2013. Taiwan’s YC INOX added a 4,000 t/month tube operation in 2022, with pickling capacity that allows direct use of hot-rolled semi-finished feed. These investments reduce reliance on imported finished products and lift Turkey’s role in regional supply chains.

Policy protection and new projects reinforce Turkey stainless steel growth

New capacity plans will further expand Turkey stainless steel growth over the next decade. China’s Yongjin Technology plans a 400,000 t/yr cold-rolling mill at Yalova, targeting completion in 2027. Domestic service centre Saritas Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS aims for an 800,000 t/yr stainless facility in four phases, with 400,000 t/yr of cold-rolled capacity expected online from 2027.

Ankara is matching this investment wave with trade defence tools to shield Turkey stainless steel growth. The government raised import duties on cold-rolled stainless steel coil from 8pc to 12pc in December 2023. At the same time, it cut duty on stainless plate to zero and kept hot-rolled coil duties at 2pc, encouraging inbound semi-finished feed for further processing.

Turkey has also launched anti-dumping investigations to guard its expanding base. Authorities are probing imports of cold-rolled plate and coil from Indonesia and China following complaints from Posco Assan TST and Celik Sanayi. Existing anti-dumping duties on welded stainless tubes from China and Taiwan were extended by five years in June. Higher rates apply to most suppliers, with reduced duties for a few named producers such as Foshan Vinmay and YC INOX. These measures aim to preserve margins for local processors as Turkey stainless steel growth accelerates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Turkey’s stainless sector is evolving into a classic “no-melt, high-processing” model backed by Asian and domestic capital. If trade defence remains targeted and predictable, Turkey can deepen its hub role without triggering severe retaliation or supply distortions. The next test will be whether planned capacities absorb regional demand or ignite a new wave of competitive exports.

US Turkey LFP Battery Partnership Targets 7GWh Production by 2027

Our Next Energy

US Turkey LFP battery partnership emerged as Our Next Energy (ONE) contracted Turkish manufacturer Pomega Energy Storage Technologies to produce 7GWh of lithium iron phosphate battery cells. The strategic US Turkey LFP battery collaboration targets 2GWh production in 2026 escalating to 5GWh in 2027, supporting ONE's energy storage solutions for utility, commercial, and industrial customers while bridging manufacturing capacity before domestic US production commences.

Strategic Manufacturing Timeline Bridges International and Domestic Production

US Turkey LFP battery production will focus on ONE's 314Ah LFP battery cells manufactured at Pomega's Ankara facility. The Turkish facility maintains 3GWh installed capacity and currently undergoes qualification for global export markets. This partnership provides immediate manufacturing access while ONE develops its Michigan-based grid battery production line scheduled for 2027 operations.

Meanwhile, the collaboration enables ONE to meet near-term customer demands without delayed market entry. Founder and CEO Mujeeb Ijaz emphasized the partnership's role in supporting customer commitments during the transition to US-based manufacturing capabilities. The phased approach reduces market risks while ensuring continuous supply chain operations across international and domestic facilities.

Turkish Manufacturing Hub Supports Global Battery Supply Chains

However, Pomega's Ankara facility represents Turkey's growing position in global battery manufacturing ecosystems. The facility's 3GWh capacity and export qualification process demonstrate Turkish manufacturing capabilities in advanced energy storage technologies. Turkey's strategic geographic position provides advantageous access to European, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets for battery exports.

Therefore, the partnership leverages Turkey's industrial infrastructure while supporting ONE's expansion strategy across utility-scale energy storage markets. Turkish manufacturing costs and skilled workforce availability create competitive advantages for large-scale battery production. The collaboration also strengthens US-Turkey commercial relationships in critical technology sectors driving clean energy transitions.

Market Positioning for Utility-Scale Energy Storage Growth

Furthermore, the LFP battery production targets utility, commercial, and industrial energy storage applications experiencing rapid market expansion. Lithium iron phosphate technology offers safety and cost advantages compared to alternative battery chemistries, particularly for large-scale stationary storage installations. The 314Ah cell specification aligns with industry requirements for grid-scale energy storage systems.

As a result, ONE's dual-facility strategy positions the company competitively across North American and international markets during the critical 2026-2027 period. The Turkish production capacity provides flexibility while Michigan facility development progresses, ensuring market presence during peak demand growth. This geographic diversification reduces supply chain risks while maximizing market opportunities across multiple regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ONE's partnership with Turkish manufacturer Pomega exemplifies how US battery companies strategically leverage international manufacturing partnerships to bridge capacity gaps before domestic production scaling, particularly important as global LFP demand accelerates faster than domestic manufacturing development. The collaboration demonstrates Turkey's emerging role as a strategic manufacturing hub for critical battery technologies, positioning the country advantageously within global energy storage supply chains serving both European and American markets.

China and Turkey Forge Rare Earth Partnership to Meet Growing Global Demand

China Mining 2024

China and Turkey have taken a significant step towards enhancing their cooperation in the rare earth sector, an industry critical to the global energy transition and high-tech manufacturing. Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on the social media platform X that the two nations signed a preliminary agreement to jointly develop rare earth resources. This move underscores the growing importance of rare earth elements (REEs) in industries such as electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy.

Turkey’s Rare Earth Potential

In July 2022, Turkey revealed the discovery of what it claims to be the world’s second-largest rare earth deposit in Eskisehir province, estimated at 694 million tons. This vast resource positions Turkey as a potential key player in the global rare earth market. Plans are already underway to establish rare earth separation and processing facilities capable of extracting 570,000 tons per year of REEs, as Bayraktar disclosed during the China Mining 2024 conference in Tianjin.

Strategic Partnership in Critical Minerals

The newly signed agreement between Bayraktar and China's Minister of Natural Resources Wang Guanghua highlights China's commitment to securing rare earth supplies amid escalating global demand. China, which possesses 44 million tons of rare earth reserves—38% of the global total—remains the world leader in rare earth production and refining, controlling nearly 70% of global output in 2023.

Global Market Implications

Rare earths are indispensable for producing NdFeB magnets, a key component in EVs, wind turbines, and industrial robotics. With increasing demand from the EV industry, China’s largest EV manufacturer, BYD, has also expanded its international production footprint. BYD’s partnership with Turkey’s industry ministry aims to produce 150,000 EVs annually, aligning with global electrification goals.

The Need for Diversification

Geopolitical tensions have driven western nations to reduce their reliance on Chinese rare earths. Companies like Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths and US-based MP Materials are investing in alternative supply chains, focusing on heavy rare earth (HRE) production.

This collaboration between China and Turkey not only secures Turkey’s strategic position in the rare earth market but also reflects the intensifying global race to secure critical minerals for the energy transition.

COP31 climate summit in Turkey cements a split-host model for 2026

Cop 31

COP31 climate summit in Turkey will take place in 2026 under a Turkey-Australia hosting compromise. The deal ends months of uncertainty that threatened multilateral climate action. Australia will steer negotiations, while Turkey will run the on-the-ground conference.

Leaders framed the compromise as a practical win for climate diplomacy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned that a venue deadlock would damage global cooperation. Therefore, the agreement protects process stability as governments chase tougher emissions and finance goals.

Australia’s negotiation role elevates Pacific climate finance

Australia will use its COP role to spotlight Pacific climate finance. Chris Bowen will chair negotiations and coordinate with Turkey’s COP presidency. Officials plan a pre-COP meeting on the Pacific Resilience Facility to accelerate adaptation funding. The Pacific Islands Forum created the facility to boost disaster resilience.

COP31 logistics clarity reduces the risk of a Bonn fallback

The compromise keeps the 2026 summit from moving to the UN Climate Change Secretariat venue. That fallback would have cut political momentum during COP30 in Brazil. Therefore, COP31 climate summit in Turkey now gives clearer timelines for diplomacy and business planning. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is positioned to host COP32 in 2027 in Addis Ababa. The African Group has endorsed the bid, which could speed final approval.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This COP31 split role may speed talks, but it can blur accountability. However, stronger climate finance can accelerate grid metals demand for copper, aluminium, and rare earths. Therefore, suppliers should track policy signals that affect permitting, trade, and strategic stockpiles.

Westwin Signs $350mn Nickel Supply Deal with Turkey’s Golden Age FZE

Westwin Elements

Expanding US Nickel Refining Reach

US nickel firm Westwin Elements has secured its first binding supply deal worth $350mn with Turkey’s Golden Age Free Zone Establishment (FZE). The Oklahoma-based company will provide 2,600 t/yr of carbonyl-nickel powder and class 1 nickel briquettes under the agreement. Golden Age FZE, a subsidiary of Apex Group-Turkiye, will serve as Westwin’s exclusive distributor and marketing partner across Turkey and neighboring regions.

Boosting Domestic Refining and Global Partnerships

Westwin operates the United States’ first nickel refinery and plans to expand output significantly. Production is set to grow from 18,000 t/yr to a nameplate capacity of 68,000 t/yr by 2034. The Turkish deal represents part of Westwin’s wider strategy to diversify its customer base and build supply contracts with original equipment manufacturers. Meanwhile, the agreement aligns with broader US government efforts to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing, with President Donald Trump backing accelerated refining in Oklahoma since taking office.

The nickel supply deal not only reinforces US-Turkey trade ties but also demonstrates Westwin’s ambition to establish a global footprint in nickel refining. By pairing domestic capacity growth with targeted international partnerships, the company is positioning itself as a long-term supplier of high-purity nickel products essential for advanced manufacturing and clean energy applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Westwin’s $350mn nickel deal highlights the importance of expanding US refining capacity while building global partnerships. With Turkey acting as a gateway to surrounding markets, Westwin gains both regional influence and strategic diversification. This agreement also underscores how nickel is becoming central to both geopolitical strategies and industrial supply chains.

Renewables Energy Security Message Shapes Cop 31 Climate Agenda

Renewables energy

Renewables energy security is becoming a central policy message ahead of the Cop 31 climate summit, as Turkey and Australia argue that fossil fuels no longer guarantee stable energy supply. The two countries said stronger decarbonisation, electrification and alternative energy sources are now essential to national resilience.

Turkey will host Cop 31 in Antalya, while Australia will lead climate negotiations. Both countries are preparing the summit against the backdrop of energy market disruption caused by the war in the Mideast Gulf and shipping interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Renewables energy security is now being framed not only as a climate issue, but also as a sovereignty issue. Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum said countries should invest in clean energy sources, including renewables, hydrogen and ammonia, to support stable and independent development.

The message reflects a wider shift in energy policy. Fossil fuels once dominated energy security thinking because they offered high-density supply and established infrastructure. But recent geopolitical shocks have shown that oil, gas and coal supply chains can be exposed to sanctions, shipping blockages and regional conflict.

Fossil Fuel Risk Pushes Electrification Up the Policy Agenda

The Mideast Gulf energy crisis has strengthened the argument that fossil fuel dependence creates vulnerability. Supply routes can be disrupted, prices can spike and importing countries can quickly face inflation, industrial cost pressure and energy security concerns.

Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen said the crisis creates an opportunity to show that energy reliability, sovereignty and security can move together with strong decarbonisation. His message was clear: doubling down on fossil fuels is not the answer.

That argument gives renewables energy security a sharper industrial meaning. Wind and solar resources cannot be sanctioned in the same way as seaborne fossil fuels. They also reduce exposure to imported fuel prices once infrastructure is built.

Electrification will therefore become more important in the Cop 31 discussion. Germany has already pushed for a stronger debate on how countries can advance electrification before the summit.

This matters for metals and manufacturing. Electrification requires more copper, aluminium, electrical steel, rare earth magnets, batteries, power electronics, transformers, grid equipment and storage systems. The shift away from fossil fuels therefore increases demand for industrial materials that support clean power systems.

Hydrogen and ammonia also remain part of Turkey’s energy transition vision. These fuels could support hard-to-abate sectors, industrial heat, shipping, fertilisers and long-duration energy storage, but they require large amounts of renewable electricity and new infrastructure.

The policy direction is not only about replacing fuels. It is about rebuilding energy systems around grids, storage, clean molecules and domestic generation capacity.

Cop 31 Could Turn Energy Security Into a Decarbonisation Driver

Cop 31 is expected to revisit the global transition away from fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 28 in 2023, while developed countries agreed at Cop 29 to provide $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035.

Turkey is now urging countries to fulfil earlier commitments on finance and energy. Kurum also called on countries that have not submitted updated nationally determined contributions to do so.

This creates pressure before Cop 31. Around 43 countries still need to submit climate plans, according to Kurum. Without credible national plans, the global transition risks remaining a statement rather than an implementation programme.

Australia pointed to three processes already under way before Cop 31. These include the Belem roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the global implementation accelerator and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C.

The challenge will be coordination. Countries have already agreed on high-level climate direction, but implementation remains uneven. Clean energy investment, grid expansion, permitting, financing and critical mineral supply all need to move faster.

For resource markets, the message is clear. Renewables energy security will not reduce dependence on supply chains. It will shift dependence from fossil fuel flows toward metals, minerals, equipment and industrial manufacturing capacity.

That creates a new form of energy security risk. Countries that build renewable power but lack access to copper, rare earths, battery metals, transformers, power electronics or grid equipment may still face strategic exposure.

Cop 31 could therefore strengthen demand for policies that connect climate action with supply-chain resilience. Energy transition goals will require not only emissions targets, but also mineral security, manufacturing investment and infrastructure deployment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The renewables energy security argument marks a turning point in climate politics. The next energy security race will be fought through grids, storage, critical minerals and clean manufacturing capacity, not only through control of fossil fuel routes.

Imports of Russian FeTi Redirect from EU to Asia

Russian ferro-titanium is increasingly being directed toward Asia as EU importers — whether steel mills or intermediaries — have tightened their purchasing strategies in compliance with EU sanctions against Russian ferro-alloys.

EU sanctions against Russian ferro-alloys came into force last December but permitted contracts that pre-dated sanctions to be fulfilled until December 20th this year. After this date, all purchases, imports, or transfers, directly or indirectly, of Russian ferro-alloys will be prohibited. While EU imports are dwindling but have not yet ceased, Asian importers are capitalizing on the surplus of Russian ferro-titanium that is no longer flowing to Europe.

EU imports in January and February were broadly consistent with the fourth quarter of last year, although the number of importing nations narrowed. Imports in March dipped, rebounded in April, and in May, reached their lowest level since September 2022 at 576t.

Non-EU imports increased by a third to 235t in the first quarter and then spiked to 492t in May alone, primarily driven by higher flows to China, alongside regular importers Turkey and South Korea. China imported 100t in April, 260t in May, and 100t in June from Russia. China is no stranger to importing Russian ferro-titanium, having received several thousand tonnes in 2018-21, but it imported only incremental volumes in 2022 and none last year.

China's re-emergence as an importer from Russia both highlights and offsets, as far as Russian sellers are concerned, the EU's gradual withdrawal from the Russian market. This demonstrates a fundamental shift in flows, yet Russia's overall exports are unaffected and even reached a nine-month high in May.

Market participants are unsure why China is importing these volumes from Russia, considering its own ample production capacity and domestic cost structures. Some have posited that these imports are being re-exported, but the cost of doing so to Europe is not profitable.

Chinese ferro-titanium exports in the second quarter hit their highest level in two years at 811t, coinciding with the spike in intake from Russia, underpinning speculation about re-exports of Russian ferro-titanium. Top recipients from China included Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, and the UAE.

Turkish imports from Russia have been sporadic this year, with some market participants linked to banks refusing to clear payments on Russian material transiting through Turkey.

Supply Gap in EU Market Offset by Low Demand

European producers have sufficient capacity to fill any void of Russian units, Metalnomist understands, but they will require more raw materials in the form of sponge or scrap. Scrap availability is still tight in Europe, due to either lower generation or merchants holding on to inventories, and lower machining rates in July and August may compound this issue.

Stretched raw material access and lower imports from Russia initially drove bullish attitudes among producers that prices in the EU market would increase as steel mills would be able to purchase only from certain non-Russian sources.

But these expectations have been undermined in the past month by several third-quarter tenders that have demonstrated persistent availability at lower prices from sellers keen to secure sales in a weak demand environment.

The market, therefore, is caught between supply fundamentals pointing to higher prices, due to tightness in raw materials and a pending loss of Russian supplies, and demand being insufficient to provide impetus for stronger prices.

Cop 31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Cop 31

Cop 31 electrification target proposed by Turkey would lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 20% today. The IEA is urging countries to support the goal at the November climate summit in Antalya.

Cop 31 electrification target would place power systems at the centre of the next phase of global decarbonisation. Reaching the target would require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and end-use electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

Cop 31 electrification target also carries major implications for metals demand. More electricity infrastructure would support long-term consumption of copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other inputs used in transmission, storage and renewable generation.

The political challenge is financing. Developing countries warned that higher borrowing costs, limited technology access and weak capital availability could prevent them from participating in the transition at the same pace as wealthier economies.

Grid Investment and Finance Will Determine Delivery

Turkey proposed the 35% electrification goal during climate talks in Bonn. The IEA said the target is achievable and could become a major legacy of Cop 31 if governments reach agreement.

However, expanding electricity use requires far more than adding renewable generation. Countries need transmission lines, distribution networks, transformers, substations, storage systems and digital grid infrastructure.

That creates a significant industrial demand signal. Copper will be central to cables, transformers and electrical equipment, while aluminium will remain critical for transmission conductors and lightweight electrical applications.

Battery storage will also become more important as renewable penetration rises. This supports demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials, while alternative storage technologies could create additional demand for vanadium, zinc and other metals.

Developing economies face the biggest financing challenge. High borrowing costs can make power projects significantly more expensive even when renewable resources are strong.

Turkey and Australia therefore want finance to sit alongside electrification in the Cop 31 agenda. Ministers from Ethiopia, Colombia and other developing countries also stressed that implementation will depend on better access to capital and technology.

Without that support, electrification could widen industrial inequality. Countries with cheaper financing would build grids and clean power faster, while higher-risk markets could remain dependent on older infrastructure and more expensive energy.

Clean Power Source Will Decide Climate Impact

Electrification alone does not guarantee lower emissions. The climate benefit depends on how the additional electricity is generated.

Civil society groups and governments have warned that rising electricity consumption can still be supplied by coal, gas or other fossil fuels. That means the electrification target must be linked with clean generation expansion and fossil fuel transition policies.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance has called for governments to integrate electrification, clean power build-out and coal transition scenarios. It warned that rapid power demand growth could otherwise lock countries into new coal capacity.

Colombia also argued that faster renewable deployment is not enough without addressing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This debate will remain central to negotiations around the broader transition away from fossil energy.

For industrial supply chains, the distinction matters. A clean electrification pathway creates sustained demand for renewable generation, grids, batteries and low-carbon materials. A fossil-heavy pathway may still increase metals demand, but with a much weaker emissions benefit.

The 35% target therefore represents more than an energy consumption metric. It would influence capital allocation, power infrastructure planning and material demand across multiple sectors for the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A global electrification target would be a major structural driver for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and storage materials. But without affordable finance and clean generation, electrification could expand electricity demand faster than it reduces emissions.

Cayeli Copper-Zinc Mine Sale Sharpens First Quantum’s Core Asset Strategy

First Quantum

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine is changing hands as First Quantum moves to simplify its portfolio and concentrate capital on core operations. The Canada-based miner has agreed to sell the Turkish mine to Cengiz Insaat for $340 million in cash.

The transaction is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026. The purchase price includes a $50 million advance already paid by Cengiz, which will be credited against the final payment at closing.

First Quantum’s decision reflects a disciplined portfolio shift. The company is selling a long-running, non-core copper and zinc asset while copper remains strategically important and zinc supply concerns continue to support market attention.

First Quantum Refocuses While Turkey Gains a Longer-Life Base Metals Asset

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine has operated since 1994 on Turkey’s northeastern Black Sea coast. The asset produced 2,427 tonnes of copper and 909 tonnes of zinc in the fourth quarter, confirming its continued role as a modest but established concentrate supplier.

First Quantum has set 2026 guidance for Cayeli at 9,000–11,000 tonnes of copper and 4,000 tonnes of zinc. That output is not large in global terms, but it remains relevant for regional smelting, concentrate flows, and Turkey’s domestic mining base.

Cengiz Insaat is acquiring more than a mature mine. The discovery of the South Orebody in 2025 added a newly defined copper and zinc resource and extended Cayeli’s operating life to 2036. That gives the buyer a clearer runway to manage production, exploration, and downstream supply relationships.

Copper and Zinc Supply Tightness Supports Strategic Interest

The Cayeli copper-zinc mine sale comes as copper demand continues to benefit from electrification, grid investment, industrial expansion, and energy transition infrastructure. Even smaller operating mines can gain strategic importance when global copper supply growth remains constrained.

Zinc also remains exposed to supply-side risks. Mine closures, grade pressure, and uneven concentrate availability have kept attention on assets that can deliver steady zinc units into regional markets.

For First Quantum, the sale provides cash and management focus. For Cengiz, the deal strengthens exposure to copper and zinc at a time when base metals assets with defined mine life are becoming harder to secure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This transaction is not only a portfolio cleanup by First Quantum. It also shows how regional mining groups are moving to secure operating base metals assets before copper and zinc supply pressure becomes more visible.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports from Russia Decline in Q2, Surge in June Amid Sanctions

In a complex geopolitical landscape marked by sanctions and shifting trade patterns, the European Union's(EU) imports of ferro-titanium from Russia witnessed notable fluctuations in the second quarter of 2024. According to recent trade data, while overall imports during April-June fell to their lowest quarterly levels since the fourth quarter of 2022, June alone saw a significant increase, reaching a nine-month high. This paradox highlights the uneven impact of EU sanctions targeting Russian ferro-alloys at the year's midpoint.

During the second quarter, the EU imported 3,321 metric tons of Russian ferro-titanium, representing a 33% increase from the first quarter's 2,497 metric tons. However, this figure still marked an 11% year-on-year decline. Within the EU, member states accounted for 2,192 metric tons, while non-EU countries absorbed the remaining 1,129 metric tons— the highest share held by non-EU states since Q2 2022.

A significant trend observed in 2024 has been the redirection of Russian ferro-titanium exports towards non-EU states, particularly China and Turkey, amid increasing sanctions. Despite this, the Netherlands broke the pattern in June by importing 473 metric tons, the highest intake by any EU country this year, slightly surpassing Estonia's January intake of 468 metric tons.

Under Article 3i of the 12th EU sanctions package, the purchase, import, or transfer—directly or indirectly—of Russian ferro-titanium is prohibited, with allowances for pre-existing contracts. However, market insiders suggest that Russian ferro-titanium may still be entering the EU through specific channels.

Market analysts had anticipated a steady decline in EU imports throughout 2024 as contracts predating the sanctions expired. However, the surge in Dutch imports in June contrasts sharply with a notable decrease in Estonia's imports, which reached their lowest level this year. For the entire quarter, Estonia imported 910 metric tons, a decline compared to both prior periods.

In parallel, Estonia's re-exports of ferro-titanium in Q2 fell to 654 metric tons, with Latvia receiving 597 metric tons and the United States 57 metric tons. Interestingly, Latvia reported zero imports directly from Russia.

China's imports of Russian ferro-titanium surged to 460 metric tons in Q2, up from zero in both the previous quarter and the same period last year. Turkey also increased its imports to 483 metric tons during this period. The potential for any of this material to eventually enter the EU remains uncertain as the market adapts to the evolving sanctions regime.

Russian ferro-titanium prices in Europe averaged $5.80-6.23 per kilogram of titanium in Q2, up from $5.33-5.81 per kilogram in Q1. The price increase reflects rising production costs and, to some extent, follows Western market trends. As of August 15, prices were last assessed at $5.60-6.30 per kilogram, as Russian suppliers lowered their offers to clear stock ahead of more stringent sanctions set to take full effect by the end of the year.

China Escalates Countermeasures in Response to EU Electric Vehicle Tariffs

China has intensified its response to the European Union's new countervailing duties on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) originating from China, highlighting growing trade tensions between two major economic blocs.

Beijing is now weighing an increase in tariffs on large-displacement fuel vehicles imported from Europe, a significant move given the EU’s status as a leading exporter of high-displacement cars to China. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, approximately 88,000 such vehicles with engine displacements over 2.5 liters were imported from Europe in the first seven months of this year alone.

Duties Target Major Chinese EV Producers

This escalation follows the EU's recent decision, enacted on October 4, to approve five-year tariffs on BEV imports from China, impacting the market for Chinese automakers. BYD, China’s largest new energy vehicle producer, will face a tariff rate of 17%, consistent with the EU's initial August proposal. Geely, another major player, saw its duty set at 18.8%, slightly down from an earlier proposed 19.3%. State-owned SAIC will face a significantly higher tariff of 35.3%, slightly reduced from an initial 36.6%. Notably, US-based Tesla, which manufactures in China for export, will contend with a 7.8% duty, down from a previously proposed 9%.

The Ministry of Commerce has indicated that it will continue to negotiate with EU counterparts but asserts it is prepared to take "firm" actions to protect Chinese commercial interests. BYD’s rapid expansion in the European market, selling over 23,000 BEVs between January and August—a doubling of last year’s figures—demonstrates China’s foothold in the region. Tesla, meanwhile, sold roughly 198,000 units in the same period, marking a 16% decrease from the previous year.

Tensions Expand Beyond the EU

China's retaliation isn’t limited to the EU alone. The country has launched a complaint with the World Trade Organization against Turkey over its recent imposition of a 40% tariff on Chinese EVs, a measure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced to stimulate Turkey's domestic electric vehicle market.

China has additionally undertaken countervailing and anti-dumping investigations into a variety of EU exports, including dairy products and pork. On October 8, Beijing imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on brandy imports from Europe, underscoring China’s readiness to diversify its retaliatory measures across multiple sectors.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Fell to 2009 Low After Russian Ban

Ferro-Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports fell to their lowest level since 2009 in 2025 after sanctions blocked Russian material from entering the bloc directly or through Baltic transit routes. EU countries imported 30,171t of ferro-titanium last year, down 36% from 47,296t in 2024.

The sharp decline showed how deeply the European ferro-titanium market had depended on Russian supply and Baltic logistics. Estonia, Poland, and Latvia together accounted for 12,830t of EU supply, but the structure of that supply changed significantly once Russian-origin ferro-titanium was barred.

EU ferro-titanium imports from Estonia halved on the year to 6,384t. The decline suggests that Estonian flows now more closely reflect local production rather than Russian material transiting through the country.

Sanctions Shifted Supply Toward Estonia, Poland and India

Estonia remained the EU’s largest ferro-titanium supplier in 2025, while Poland became the second-largest intra-EU source. Polish shipments rose by a quarter to 3,834t, showing that European buyers were turning more heavily to regional producers after the Russian ban.

Imports from the UK fell 27% to 3,468t after the closure of TiVac last summer. Most of TiVac’s former volumes are expected to shift to Estonia, where FE Mottram is scaling up operations in Ahtme, while Transition Metals continues to operate in the UK.

India became a larger alternative supplier as exports to the EU rose 171% to 2,310t. Turkey’s shipments also surged to 1,000t, although these flows remain unclear because Turkey is not a known ferro-titanium producer.

Russian ferro-titanium imports fell to just 463t in 2025 after full implementation of EU sanctions on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. Russian exports largely moved to Asia, with Chinese imports from Russia reaching a record 6,381t last year.

Russian Scrap Flows Rose Before Late-Year Slowdown

Titanium scrap became a temporary workaround because Russian titanium scrap was not covered by EU sanctions. EU imports of Russian scrap doubled to 2,517t in 2025, with 2,406t entering Estonia.

Estonia then re-exported 2,277t of titanium scrap last year, showing how scrap flows supported the regional ferro-titanium supply chain after the ban on Russian ferro-alloys. However, this trade also weakened sharply toward year-end, with EU imports falling to 36t in December and 37t in January 2026.

European ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.98-5.33/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in 2025, down 28% from 2024. Weak steel mill consumption kept prices under pressure for most of the year.

The market later rebounded from multi-year lows in December. Supply concerns linked to Latvian producer LLR-Ecotech first supported the recovery, before higher scrap costs allowed other producers to raise offers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU ferro-titanium market is now being rebuilt around sanctions compliance, regional production, and scrap availability. The Russian ban reduced headline imports, but it also exposed Europe’s dependence on flexible titanium scrap flows and a small group of regional producers.

ACG Acquisition Secures Turkish Mine for Copper and Zinc Production by 2026

London-listed ACG Acquisition has announced the purchase of the Gediktepe mine in Turkey for $290 million, with plans to begin producing copper and zinc by 2026 as part of a sulphide expansion project. This acquisition marks a significant step for the special-purpose acquisition company as it expands its mining portfolio.

Located in the Balikesir province of western Turkey, the Gediktepe open-pit mine was initially acquired from Lidya, a subsidiary of the Istanbul-based conglomerate Calik Holding. While the mine currently produces gold and silver, ACG aims to shift focus to copper and zinc through a fully funded $145 million sulphide expansion project. The company projects an annual output of 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of copper equivalent over the mine’s initial 11-year lifespan. Copper and zinc concentrates will be extracted from sulphide ore using flotation methods.

The Gediktepe mine, which commenced operations in 2021, yielded 35,117 ounces of gold and 367,758 ounces of silver last year. This existing production capacity provides a robust foundation for ACG's broader strategy to consolidate copper assets in response to increasing demand for the metal.

ACG’s chief executive, Artem Volynets, highlighted the strategic importance of the acquisition, noting that the Gediktepe mine will play a crucial role in the company’s expansion plans. The announcement follows a setback last year when ACG’s attempt to acquire two copper and nickel mines in Brazil fell through due to unresolved terms with investors.

As ACG moves forward with its sulphide expansion at Gediktepe, the company is poised to enhance its position in the global copper market, capitalizing on the rising demand for the metal essential to various industries.

Derichebourg Recycling Results Rise on Non-Ferrous Strength and Scrap Policy Support

Chhattisgarh, Ferro‑alloy

Derichebourg recycling results improved in the first half of the company’s 2025-26 financial year as stronger non-ferrous demand, higher prices and increased metal volumes lifted earnings. The French recycling group reported Ebitda of €177.8mn for October-March, up almost 10% from a year earlier.

Derichebourg recycling results show how metal recyclers are benefiting from two linked forces. Non-ferrous scrap demand remains firm, while European steel policy is encouraging mills to source more feedstock from within the region.

Derichebourg recycling results also point to continued momentum in the second half. The company expects April-September performance to be comparable to the first half and forecasts full-year Ebitda of €350mn-370mn.

The market responded positively to the filing, with Derichebourg’s share price rising above €10 from €9.50 after the results were released.

Non-Ferrous Metals Drive Earnings Growth

Non-ferrous metals were the main earnings driver. Derichebourg sold 357,100t of non-ferrous metals in the first half, up 4.4% from a year earlier.

Revenue from the non-ferrous segment rose by nearly 20% to €1bn. The average non-ferrous price was almost 15% higher than in the same period last year.

Copper sales were especially strong, rising by 17%. Aluminium sales, excluding ingots, increased by 10%, supported by firm industrial demand.

However, the picture was not uniformly positive. Aluminium ingot sales fell by 15%, while lead sales dropped by 4%, mainly because of weaker demand from the automotive industry.

This split matters for recyclers. Copper and aluminium scrap remain exposed to electrification, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing, while automotive weakness can still pressure selected downstream products.

Derichebourg’s non-ferrous performance shows that scrap is becoming a strategic raw material, not only a waste recovery business. Buyers increasingly need reliable recycled metal flows for cost control, carbon reduction and supply security.

CBAM and Steel Quotas Support Ferrous Scrap Outlook

Ferrous scrap revenue fell by 5% to €649.9mn because lower average prices offset higher volumes. Derichebourg sold 2.13mn t of ferrous scrap, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

European mills increased scrap purchases ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism coming into force in January. CBAM has added complexity to imported steel and raw material calculations, pushing some steelmakers toward European suppliers.

The company also expects ferrous scrap demand to strengthen after the EU introduces new steel quotas and customs duties in July. These measures could support regional scrap flows by making local feedstock more attractive.

Turkey also contributed to stronger scrap demand as steel production increased. That remains important because Turkish mills are major seaborne scrap buyers and can influence European collection and export markets.

Derichebourg is also expanding geographically. The company agreed to acquire Germany’s Scholz Recycling, which operates 180 sites including joint ventures across Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Austria and Romania.

The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026. It will strengthen Derichebourg’s recycling network in eastern Europe, where its presence has been smaller.

The acquisition fits the wider market direction. European recyclers are scaling up as policy, carbon rules and industrial demand make scrap supply more valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Derichebourg’s results show that recycling is becoming a policy-supported industrial supply chain. CBAM, steel trade measures and non-ferrous demand are turning scrap networks into strategic assets for European metals security.

China’s Steel Market Faces Persistent Challenges Despite Stimulus Measures

China’s Steel

Chinese steel prices experienced a modest rebound from multi-year lows in late September, spurred by a series of government stimulus policies. However, the steel market's long-term outlook remains uncertain due to sluggish domestic demand, weakening real estate investments, and global trade barriers.

Steel Prices Rebound, but Demand Stays Weak

Steel prices in China bottomed out in late September, with the People’s Bank of China reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% and lowering mortgage rates. Despite these measures, real estate investments for January-September declined by 10.1% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The area of new construction projects dropped by 22.2% over the same period, underscoring a lack of recovery in demand.

Domestic steel demand remains heavily tied to new construction and infrastructure projects. However, China’s shift in focus toward existing housing rather than new builds has limited the effectiveness of stimulus policies.

Steel Production Increases Amidst Price Rebound

Chinese steel mills responded to the price recovery by ramping up production. Profits rebounded from losses of Yn150-200 per ton in early September to Yn200-250 per ton by early October. Weekly rebar output reached 2.4 million tons in mid-October, the highest since late June. Blast furnace and electric arc furnace operation rates also hit two-month highs during this period.

Despite increased production, market participants anticipate a dip in construction steel demand from mid-November as northern cities enter the winter heating season.

Steel Exports: A Mixed Bag

Chinese steel exports surged by 21.2% year-on-year in January-September, totaling 80.71 million tons. However, this growth is under threat from rising anti-dumping measures in countries such as Turkey, India, Vietnam, and South Korea. With major overseas markets slowing operations during the Christmas season, export bookings are expected to taper off in December.

Stimulus Measures: Limited Impact on Real Estate

China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced significant fiscal measures, including a Yn1 trillion issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and an increased financial expenditure of Yn180 billion for 2024. Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) plans to rebuild 1 million apartments in shanty towns and dilapidated areas. However, these measures are relatively mild compared to the peak of 6 million units rebuilt annually from 2016 to 2018.

To further stimulate the housing market, most cities, except Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have lifted purchase restrictions. Despite these efforts, the market remains constrained by long-term structural issues.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Shanghai hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined by Yn230 per ton (6.3%) from 7 October to Yn3,420 per ton as of yesterday. Market analysts suggest that while steel prices may not return to their September lows, downward pressure is likely in November and December.

As China continues to navigate economic headwinds, the steel sector’s recovery appears contingent on significant new investments and sustained domestic demand growth. The global context of anti-dumping measures and trade barriers adds another layer of complexity, potentially capping export growth prospects in the near term.

BAE Systems Defence Demand Lifts Sales and Strengthens Backlog

BAE Systems

BAE Systems defence demand pushed the company to stronger sales and a larger order book in 2025. The UK defence group reported sales of £30.7bn, up 10pc from the previous year. Orders also reached £36.8bn, lifting backlog to £83.6bn. As a result, BAE Systems defence demand is becoming a clear signal of how geopolitical tension is feeding industrial growth.

This matters because BAE Systems sales growth is tied directly to rising military spending across Europe and beyond. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased urgency around fighter aircraft, defence systems, and military readiness. That is supporting both current production and future programme visibility. Therefore, BAE Systems defence demand now carries wider significance for the aerospace and defence supply chain.

Defence Metals Demand Is Rising Alongside Aircraft and Systems Output

Defence metals demand is also rising as major programmes expand. BAE’s portfolio uses titanium and aluminium in airframes and structures, while high-temperature alloys remain critical for engines. Infra-red emitters, lasers, and imaging systems also rely on minor metals such as gallium and germanium. Consequently, BAE Systems sales growth matters not only for defence primes, but also for metals and advanced materials suppliers.

The Eurofighter Typhoon adds another important layer to that story. Turkey’s planned acquisition of 20 Typhoon aircraft is expected to be worth £4.6bn to BAE. That programme supports a multinational industrial base across the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy. As a result, BAE Systems defence demand is helping sustain both national and cross-border aerospace manufacturing.

Aerospace Alloy Demand Faces Opportunity and Labour Risk

Aerospace alloy demand should remain firm if BAE meets its 2026 sales growth target of 7-9pc. That outlook suggests the company still sees healthy programme momentum despite an already strong 2025. Suppliers tied to structures, engines, and advanced components may benefit from that continued growth. Therefore, BAE Systems sales growth is likely to keep supporting upstream metals demand.

However, labour disruption remains a near-term risk. Strike action continues at BAE’s Warton and Samlesbury sites in Lancashire, where parts for Typhoon and F-35 jets are produced. More than 1,000 workers are involved in the current dispute. Meanwhile, the gap between strong profits and contested pay talks could create operational pressure if the issue drags on.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BAE’s results show that defence demand is no longer a short-cycle boost. It is becoming a structural driver for aerospace manufacturing and strategic metals consumption. The bigger question now is whether supply chains and labour stability can keep pace with the new defence growth cycle.

Magnesium Die-Casting Growth Constrained by China Supply Chain Dominance

International Magnesium Association (IMA)

Magnesium die-casting adoption remains limited despite cost advantages over aluminum, as supply chain risks and price volatility concerns overshadow material benefits. Primary magnesium prices have reached parity or dropped below aluminum prices over the past year, theoretically supporting substitution in automotive applications. However, magnesium die-casting expansion faces significant headwinds from China's 90% global market share and associated geopolitical supply risks that discourage automotive manufacturers from switching materials.

Material Advantages Drive Theoretical Demand for Magnesium Applications

Magnesium offers compelling technical advantages for automotive die-casting applications, particularly in electric vehicle lightweighting strategies. The metal's density equals approximately two-thirds that of aluminum, making it the lightest structural metal available for automotive components. Meanwhile, magnesium's lower melting point reduces energy consumption during casting processes, while higher thermal conductivity improves heat dissipation performance.

Automotive manufacturers currently use magnesium die-casting for engine blocks, transmission cases, steering wheels, and interior brackets where weight reduction delivers maximum benefit. These applications leverage magnesium's superior strength-to-weight ratio compared to aluminum alloys. However, aluminum maintains advantages in tensile strength for high-stress structural applications, limiting magnesium's potential market penetration.

Supply Chain Concentration Creates Investment Hesitation

China's overwhelming dominance of global magnesium production creates substantial supply security concerns for automotive manufacturers considering magnesium die-casting adoption. The country produces approximately 950,000 tonnes annually, representing 90% of global output, while other production remains limited to Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Israel. As a result, no active primary magnesium production exists in Europe or the United States following US Magnesium's suspension in November 2024.

Recent price volatility reinforced automotive industry caution regarding magnesium die-casting investments, with the 2021 price spike prompting some manufacturers to halt new magnesium component development. CM Group managing director Alan Clark noted that die-casters remain concerned about magnesium price exposure without sufficient long-term supply guarantees. Therefore, automotive companies prioritize aluminum's supply security over magnesium's material advantages and cost benefits.

Environmental restrictions, semi-coke limitations, slag disposal procedures, VAT enforcement, capacity cuts, and tight dolomite supply have compounded Chinese production volatility. Brazilian magnesium producer Rima's CEO Ricardo Vicintin emphasized that geopolitical concerns explain widespread reluctance to increase magnesium usage. Consequently, magnesium die-casting growth remains constrained despite favorable economics and technical performance characteristics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The magnesium die-casting market exemplifies how supply chain concentration can limit material adoption despite superior technical and economic attributes. While non-Chinese projects like Latrobe Magnesium, Verde Magnesium, and MFE Magnesium offer future diversification potential, none currently operate at commercial scale, leaving the automotive industry dependent on Chinese supply for the foreseeable future.

ICJ Climate Ruling Gains UN Backing as Oil Powers Push Back

International Court of Justice

ICJ climate ruling support has gained global political weight after the UN general assembly adopted a resolution welcoming the court’s advisory opinion on states’ obligations to protect the climate system. The vote shows that climate policy is increasingly moving into legal and trade-risk territory.

The ICJ climate ruling is not legally binding, but it carries legal and moral authority that could influence future climate litigation. That makes it important for energy, mining, metals and industrial companies exposed to emissions, fossil fuels and transition-linked regulation.

The ICJ climate ruling was backed by 141 countries, including China. Only eight countries opposed the resolution, including the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s three largest oil producers.

The divide highlights a growing strategic split. Most countries are accepting stronger legal language around climate responsibility, while major fossil fuel producers are resisting efforts that could accelerate pressure on oil, gas and coal.

Climate Duties Move From Politics Toward Legal Risk

The UN resolution calls on member states to take all possible steps to avoid significant damage to the climate and environment. It also urges countries to follow through on their Paris Agreement commitments.

Vanuatu, which led the resolution, framed the issue as a matter of legal obligation rather than political discretion. That language is important because it gives climate policy a stronger legal foundation.

For industry, the risk is clear. Even if the advisory opinion is not binding, it may support future lawsuits, regulatory challenges and pressure on governments to tighten climate rules.

The resolution also reinforces earlier climate summit outcomes. It points to keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

That matters for metals demand. Stronger climate implementation supports long-term demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other materials tied to grids, renewables, batteries and electrification.

However, it also raises pressure on high-emission industrial sectors. Steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, mining and refining will face closer scrutiny over emissions, power sources and supply-chain transparency.

Oil Producers Resist While Finance Divide Remains

The opposition from the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia shows that fossil fuel producers remain wary of climate language that could constrain future energy policy. The US objected to the resolution, arguing that it included inappropriate political demands related to fossil fuels.

Russia also opposed the measure, saying the resolution risked making the ICJ opinion mandatory in nature and selectively used the advisory opinion and climate summit outcomes.

Several developing and fossil fuel-producing countries focused on another issue: finance. India, Iraq and Algeria abstained, arguing that the resolution placed too much emphasis on emissions cuts while not adequately addressing climate finance and adaptation support.

This dispute will remain central to future climate negotiations. Developing economies want funding to support decarbonisation, adaptation and industrial transition, while developed countries and climate-vulnerable states want faster action on emissions.

Brazil, the Cop 30 president, supported the resolution. Turkey, which will host Cop 31 in Antalya, abstained, while Australia supported the text but said that support should not be read as agreement with every part of the advisory opinion.

For industrial markets, the vote confirms that climate policy is not retreating. It is becoming more legal, more geopolitical and more connected to trade, finance and supply-chain decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UN vote turns climate responsibility into a stronger legal signal for governments and industry. For metals and mining, the opportunity is rising demand from electrification, but the risk is higher scrutiny over emissions, origin and financing.

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

Trump Tariff

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

US President Donald Trump has announced a significant escalation in trade protectionism by doubling Section 232 tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. The statement was made at a rally held at US Steel’s Mon Valley Works in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. While the specific date and mechanism for implementation remain unclear, the move signals stronger trade defense ahead of the election season.

The 50% tariff aims to shield domestic producers from what Trump described as unfair foreign competition. The policy will particularly affect exporters from China, South Korea, Turkey, and Brazil, who already face quotas and duties under Section 232.

Nippon Steel’s $14 Billion Investment Secures US Steel’s Future

In addition to the tariff hike, Trump confirmed that Nippon Steel will move forward with a $14 billion investment in US Steel. While not framed as a full acquisition, Trump emphasized that US Steel will retain operational control and remain headquartered in Pittsburgh. He claimed the investment would be the largest in Pennsylvania’s history and a milestone for the US steel industry.

According to Trump, the plan includes $2.2 billion to modernize the Mon Valley mill and $7 billion to revamp steel mills and ore mines in Indiana, Minnesota, Alabama, and Arkansas. The investment is expected to create 100,000 jobs over the next 14 months and secure blast furnace operations for at least a decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move to double tariffs, while politically potent, reflects a broader trend of industrial reshoring and national resource security. The Nippon investment adds long-term operational value, but short-term market volatility is inevitable. Policymakers and steel-consuming sectors must now prepare for elevated costs and complex supply chain recalibrations.

Minimal Impact on US Antimony Prices Following China's Export Ban

Wogen Resources

China's recent decision to halt antimony exports to the US is expected to have a minimal effect on US antimony prices, despite the ongoing supply constraints from the Asian giant. This move comes as part of a broader export ban on "dual-use" items, including germanium and gallium, which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced will be effective immediately.

Market Response and Analysis

US market participants had largely anticipated the export ban, suggesting that the initial impact on antimony prices might be subdued. "The question now is where we go from here," a European trader explained to Metalnomist. He noted the need for the market to find stability in terms of price ceilings and floors.

Prior to the announcement, US traders had already begun testing lower price offers, ranging from $38,500 to $39,000 per ton on a cif basis. This adjustment came after a period of resistance to higher prices spurred by panic buying in the preceding months. According to another trader, while it's unlikely that prices will decrease significantly from current levels due to supply-side constraints, the market might see even fewer offers moving forward.

Global Search for New Suppliers

This ban underscores the growing urgency among global antimony consumers to find new supply sources. With a significant portion of the US antimony supply traditionally sourced from China, countries like India, Bolivia, Myanmar, and Vietnam may become alternative routes for this critical metal.

Potential Opportunities and Developments

In light of these supply challenges, Turkey could emerge as a beneficiary, given its substantial antimony production capacity. Additionally, new developments in Australia, such as the Hillgrove project in New South Wales, promise future relief, with plans to produce a notable portion of global antimony output starting in 2026.

In the US, Perpetua Resources is advancing its Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, which is set to significantly contribute to the domestic supply once operational.