Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

CBAM to Add 15-25% Surcharge to EU Steel Import Costs Starting January 2026

EU Steel

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose 15-25% surcharges on CBAM steel import costs when full implementation begins January 1, 2026, according to Euranimi analysis. The European Association of Non-Integrated Metal Importers & Distributors warned that these additional costs will vary significantly depending on product type and country of origin. Steel importers face substantial cost increases as CBAM steel import costs rise through carbon pricing mechanisms designed to protect EU domestic steel producers from unfair competition.

CBAM Calculation Formula Creates Variable Cost Impact Across Origins

The CBAM surcharge calculation uses a specific formula measuring the difference between embedded emissions and 97.5% of EU benchmark standards multiplied by emissions trading system (ETS) pricing. This methodology ensures that steel imports face carbon costs comparable to EU domestic production under the emissions trading system. Meanwhile, Euranimi recommends that suppliers introduce separate CBAM surcharge lines in commercial offers, similar to existing alloy surcharge practices in steel trading.

Market participants anticipate significant import pattern changes as CBAM implementation approaches, with potential steel import surges in the fourth quarter of 2025. Importers may accelerate purchases before January 2026 to avoid initial CBAM steel import costs and associated compliance complexities. However, steel imports could decline sharply after January as buyers adjust to higher costs and new administrative requirements.

Implementation Timeline Creates Uncertainty for Steel Trade

Euranimi collaborates with the European Commission to develop "manageable" CBAM implementation procedures that minimize trade disruption while achieving environmental objectives. The association requests June publication of temporary benchmarks and default values for 2026 imports to provide market clarity. As a result, transitional benchmarks should be less strict initially while default values require reasonable levels to manage compliance costs.

Steel importers face significant uncertainty because verified emission data from non-EU suppliers won't be available until late 2026 at the earliest. Default values will play crucial roles in managing CBAM steel import costs during this transition period without verified supplier data. Therefore, appropriate default value settings prevent excessive financial exposure from unforeseen corrections and compliance adjustments.

The CBAM implementation represents a fundamental shift in global steel trade dynamics, creating competitive advantages for low-carbon steel producers while penalizing high-emission suppliers. European steel importers must adapt business models to incorporate carbon costs into pricing strategies and supplier selection processes. Consequently, CBAM steel import costs will reshape trade flows and encourage global steel industry decarbonization efforts through market mechanisms.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The 15-25% CBAM surcharge on steel imports marks a pivotal moment in global trade policy, potentially reshaping steel supply chains as importers seek lower-carbon suppliers to minimize carbon border costs. This mechanism could accelerate global steel industry decarbonization by creating economic incentives for cleaner production technologies, though it also risks disrupting established trade relationships and creating competitive disadvantages for developing country steel producers lacking access to clean technology.

Nippon Kosice Mill Move Builds Direct European Steel Hub

U.S Steel, Kosice Mill

Nippon Kosice mill ownership is moving into a new phase as Nippon Steel begins the transition to take direct control of US Steel’s Slovakia-based Kosice operation. The move positions the plant as a key European operating hub inside Nippon’s global steel network.

Nippon Kosice mill control matters because the facility is one of Central Europe’s major integrated steel assets. It has crude steel capacity of 4.5mn t/yr and produced 3.2mn t in the 2025 fiscal year.

Nippon Kosice mill operations include three blast furnaces and downstream lines for hot rolling, cold rolling, annealing, tinplate, galvanizing and non-oriented electrical steel. That product range gives the site relevance across automotive, electrical, energy, packaging and construction supply chains.

The mill has been wholly owned by US Steel since 2000. US Steel became a subsidiary of Nippon in 2025, and the latest move will put Nippon in direct control of Kosice’s operations.

Direct Control Strengthens Technology, Sales and Procurement

Nippon’s direct ownership strategy is aimed at improving Kosice’s competitiveness through closer coordination on technology, sales and procurement. This is more than a corporate restructuring.

Integrated steel mills increasingly need stronger technical support to serve higher-grade markets. Customers in automotive, electrical equipment, construction and energy are demanding better surface quality, tighter tolerances, stronger coating performance and more advanced steel grades.

Kosice already has a broad industrial customer base across Europe. Direct integration with Nippon could help the mill improve product development and align more closely with global customers that require high-value steel.

Procurement is also important. European steelmakers face pressure from raw material costs, energy prices, carbon rules and import competition. A stronger link to Nippon’s global network could improve sourcing discipline and operating efficiency.

The plant’s non-oriented electrical steel capability is especially strategic. NOES is used in electric motors, generators and other equipment tied to electrification. As electric vehicles, industrial motors and grid equipment expand, electrical steel quality becomes increasingly important.

Tinplate and galvanizing lines also give Kosice exposure to packaging, automotive and construction demand. These downstream assets allow the mill to capture more value than a basic slab or hot-rolled coil producer.

Central and Eastern Europe Offer High-Grade Steel Growth

Nippon expects steel demand in Central and Eastern Europe to keep growing. That regional view is central to the Kosice strategy.

Manufacturing relocation into the region could support demand for higher-grade steel. Automotive suppliers, electrical equipment producers, energy companies and construction manufacturers all need reliable local steel supply.

Kosice is well placed geographically to serve those markets. Slovakia sits near important automotive and industrial clusters, giving the mill a logistics advantage for regional customers.

The move also gives Nippon a stronger European production base at a time when the steel industry is becoming more regional. Customers increasingly value supply security, shorter delivery routes and stable technical support.

For European steel supply chains, direct Nippon control could bring more disciplined investment and product strategy. The challenge will be upgrading competitiveness while managing Europe’s high energy costs and decarbonisation pressure.

Nippon’s high-value manufacturing technology could help Kosice move further into specialised grades. That would be important if regional demand shifts from commodity steel toward automotive sheet, electrical steel, coated products and precision cold-rolled materials.

The broader industrial meaning is clear. Nippon is not treating Kosice as a passive inherited asset from US Steel. It is positioning the mill as a strategic European platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nippon’s Kosice move shows that global steelmakers are concentrating control around regional hubs with high-grade potential. The key test will be whether Nippon can turn Kosice from a legacy integrated mill into a more competitive supplier for Europe’s automotive, electrical and energy transition markets.

EU Steel Demand Faces CBAM Risk Before 2028 Downstream Extension

EU Steel

EU steel demand could face significant pressure between 2026 and 2028 as carbon border adjustment costs apply to steel before they fully extend to downstream steel-consuming goods. European market participants warn that this timing gap could encourage imports of finished steel derivatives and weaken demand for EU-made steel.

The risk comes from the structure of CBAM implementation. Steel products will carry annual CBAM-related mark-ups before many downstream products are covered. As a result, imported finished goods with high steel content could become more competitive than goods manufactured inside the EU using CBAM-exposed steel.

EU steel demand is therefore exposed to a policy mismatch. CBAM aims to protect European industry from carbon leakage, but an uneven rollout could shift pressure from steel imports to finished product imports. That would create a new competitiveness problem for service centres, distributors, fabricators, machinery producers, vehicle parts makers, and appliance manufacturers.

Downstream Imports Could Undermine European Steel Consumption

Downstream steel-consuming goods are becoming a central concern for European industry. Product categories under discussion include car parts, specialised vehicle components, home appliances, machinery parts, and yellow goods. These sectors consume large volumes of steel and play a major role in sustaining regional industrial demand.

A proposed response is to create safeguards for selected downstream products before the 2028 CBAM expansion. The idea is to identify key HS codes for EU-manufactured products with high steel content and establish a quota system similar to existing steel safeguards.

This approach reflects a growing concern that steel protection alone may not protect the steel value chain. If downstream manufacturers lose competitiveness, EU steel demand could weaken even if direct steel imports fall. The strategic issue is not only steel trade, but the survival of manufacturing demand inside Europe.

Steel Safeguards and Weak Orders Add Pressure to the Market

The new version of EU steel safeguard measures is still expected to take effect in July. However, market participants remain concerned about World Trade Organisation compliance, especially as the EU negotiates free-trade agreements that may include country-specific quotas.

Market sentiment is already weak. European service centres reported soft order intake in February, with some seeing volumes 10-20pc lower than a year earlier. This points to sluggish industrial activity and limited confidence across the steel distribution chain.

Import reliance may also decline this year. Some service centres expect imported material to fall to around 20pc of flat steel use, compared with as much as 40pc in previous years. That shift may support EU mills, but it also reflects a more controlled and uncertain market environment rather than a broad recovery in demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s steel challenge is no longer only about protecting mills from imported coil. The real risk is demand leakage, where downstream production moves outside Europe before CBAM fully covers finished steel-intensive goods.

EU May Tighten Steel Safeguard in Response to Global Overcapacity

The European Commission

The European Commission is set to review its existing steel safeguard measures, possibly tightening them significantly due to persistent weak market conditions. This action comes as part of the Commission's annual review, which could be expedited in light of mounting global overcapacity. Sources suggest that the Commission may announce its decision as early as next week.

The current global overcapacity in steel production is placing additional strain on the European market, where demand for steel remains weak. As a result, industry insiders are urging the Commission to reconsider the planned 1% liberalization of the steel import quota. This adjustment would allow importers to secure a greater share of the European market, which is shrinking due to both supply overabundance and lackluster domestic demand.

The Commission is also expected to further tighten import volumes beyond the existing 15% cap on the "other countries" quota. Industry experts anticipate additional investigations into alleged dumping practices from countries such as Egypt, Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Indonesia. These investigations could potentially lead to higher tariffs or other protective measures for European steel producers.

Specifically, there are discussions regarding the inclusion of hot-rolled coil (HRC) from several countries, including Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam. Furthermore, the European Union could extend its scrutiny to Vietnamese hot-dip galvanized steel, South Korean and Indonesian plate steel, and cold-rolled coil from Taiwan. Additional investigations could also target other Asian countries selling HRC and downstream products.

European steel mills have long been advocating for stricter measures, claiming that the current safeguards are insufficient to protect the industry from the flood of cheaper imports. The impending review by the European Commission may result in a significant shift in the European Union's trade strategy for steel, with potential long-term effects on both domestic producers and foreign exporters.

Outokumpu Stainless Steel Deliveries Rise as EU CBAM Supports Local Demand

Outokumpu

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries rose sharply from the previous quarter after the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism began applying to imports at the start of the year. The Finnish stainless steel producer shipped 465,000t in January-March, up 27% from the previous quarter.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries were still down 1% from a year earlier, showing that the recovery remains uneven. But the quarterly increase suggests CBAM is starting to shift some demand toward local European production.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries are expected to rise by up to 10% in the second quarter. The company is benefiting from European buyers reassessing imports as carbon-related costs begin to affect non-EU supply.

The result highlights the industrial importance of scrap-based stainless steel production. CBAM could improve the competitiveness of lower-carbon European producers if importers face higher carbon costs.

CBAM Gives European Stainless Producers a Demand Tailwind

CBAM imposes a carbon levy on imports from outside the EU. This changes the cost comparison between imported stainless steel and local European material.

For Outokumpu, the mechanism supports demand for European scrap-based stainless production. Scrap-based production generally carries a lower carbon footprint than more emissions-intensive routes.

European stainless shipments reached 324,000t in the first quarter, up 2% from a year earlier. This suggests regional demand held up better than some other markets.

Shipments to the Americas fell by 5% to 148,000t. However, the Americas business still delivered much stronger earnings because of higher average selling prices.

The commercial message is clear. Volume growth is beginning to appear in Europe, but pricing power remains stronger in the Americas.

Ferro-Chrome Volumes Rise but European Margins Weaken

Outokumpu’s ferro-chrome shipments rose by 15.8% year on year to 110,000t. Strong demand in Europe and the US supported the increase.

Ferro-chrome remains essential for stainless steel production because chromium provides corrosion resistance. Higher ferro-chrome shipments therefore show stronger activity across stainless and alloy supply chains.

Group adjusted Ebitda rose by 33% on the year to €65mn. The improvement was driven mainly by the Americas business, where Ebitda climbed to €52mn from €11mn.

But the earnings mix was uneven. Ferro-chrome Ebitda fell by nearly 30% to €30mn, while the European stainless segment posted negative Ebitda of €13mn, down from positive €5mn a year earlier.

Outokumpu attributed weaker European profitability to lower average selling prices and lower fixed-cost absorption. This shows that CBAM may support volumes before it fully restores margins.

The first-quarter result therefore sends a mixed signal. European demand is improving, but pricing and cost absorption still need to recover for the regional stainless business to regain strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s quarter shows that CBAM is beginning to change stainless steel trade behaviour. But the policy’s real test is whether it can improve European producer margins, not only redirect demand toward local supply.

 

European Ferro-Molybdenum Prices Hit Three-Year High on Concentrate Squeeze

Ferro-Molybdenum

European ferro-molybdenum prices have climbed to a three-year high as tight molybdenum concentrate supply, stronger Chinese steel demand and logistical constraints push the market higher. The rally has lifted prices sharply since the start of the year.

European ferro-molybdenum prices were last assessed at $70.90-71.50/kg in-warehouse Rotterdam on 19 May, up by about 25% from the start of the year. Molybdenum oxide prices also rose to $30.50-30.80/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up by 28% over the same period.

European ferro-molybdenum prices are being driven mainly by raw material tightness rather than a broad recovery in European steel demand. Molybdenum concentrate availability has tightened structurally, limiting oxide and ferro-molybdenum production flexibility.

The key problem is that molybdenum is mostly produced as a by-product of copper mining. That means supply cannot quickly respond to higher prices, leaving the market exposed when concentrate availability tightens or downstream demand rises.

Concentrate Tightness Drives the Molybdenum Chain Higher

Molybdenum concentrate is the starting point for the supply chain. It is converted into molybdenum oxide, which then feeds ferro-molybdenum production for alloy steel and stainless steel applications.

Concentrate prices in China have risen by about 29% since January, peaking at 5,235 yuan/mtu on 13 May. That cost increase has moved through the value chain and supported higher oxide and ferro-molybdenum prices.

Chinese steel demand has intensified the squeeze. Mills purchased around 30,000t of ferro-molybdenum in March-April, up 10% from a year earlier.

This buying absorbed much of China’s available spot concentrate and oxide supply. As a result, less material has been available for export to other consuming regions.

Market participants initially expected demand to slow after pre-holiday buying ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday. Instead, sustained steel mill demand kept buyers active and tightened availability further.

The Centerra Gold Langeloth outage in the US also supported the rally. An explosion near the facility’s acid unit on 29 January led to a suspension of operations, removing an important source of molybdenum oxide and ferro-molybdenum from the prompt market.

The facility’s direct global supply share is limited. However, its outage tightened nearby availability and strengthened bullish sentiment, allowing traders and producers to raise offers more aggressively.

Supply Constraints Outweigh European Demand Recovery

The current rally is largely supply-led. European steel demand has not recovered strongly enough to explain the scale of the price increase on its own.

Logistical constraints have made the situation worse. Financing, freight and inventory bottlenecks have reduced spot availability among trading firms.

Some sellers have also withheld material in expectation of further price gains. At the same time, buyers have resisted higher offers, reducing spot liquidity and creating sharper price movements.

Truckload enquiries have remained limited in recent weeks. This suggests that physical tightness and cautious seller behaviour are driving prices more than a surge in end-user consumption.

For alloy producers and steelmakers, the rally raises cost pressure. Ferro-molybdenum is used to improve strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance in steels used across energy, chemicals, engineering, defence and industrial equipment.

The market’s vulnerability reflects molybdenum’s by-product nature. Even if prices rise sharply, copper mines cannot quickly increase molybdenum output just to meet alloy demand.

That makes the molybdenum chain highly sensitive to disruptions. Concentrate shortages, converter outages, Chinese buying and trading bottlenecks can all create price moves that exceed the underlying change in steel consumption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The molybdenum rally shows how by-product metals can move violently when small supply disruptions meet concentrated demand. European buyers are not facing a simple steel-demand story; they are facing a raw material chain where concentrate availability now controls ferro-alloy pricing.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

European Steel and Metals Action Plan could lift some steel prices by 30%, Acea warns

ACEA

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could raise costs for Europe’s steel-using industries. The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could push certain specialised steel grades up by 30%, Acea said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect higher costs than the Commission’s average price estimate.

Manufacturing associations argue the plan tightens import rules too sharply. They expect the proposal to nearly halve import quotas and raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50%. As a result, they estimate €5bn–9bn per year in tariff costs if import volumes stay near 2024 levels.

Import safeguards tighten supply and amplify price risk for niche grades

Quota cuts usually hit specialised categories first. Automakers and machinery makers often rely on a narrow set of approved, high-grade steels. However, only a few global suppliers produce some of these grades at scale.

The plan also adds a “melt-and-pour” origin rule. This rule forces buyers to prove where steel was melted and poured. Therefore, firms face heavier compliance work and slower procurement cycles.

Downstream manufacturers warn of a policy stack effect

The policy stack raises the total cost burden beyond tariffs. CBAM compliance and the phase-out of free ETS allowances add additional cost pressure. As a result, downstream sectors fear a competitiveness hit versus producers outside Europe.

Industry groups also flag operational complexity for smaller firms. SMEs may lack the staff to manage origin documentation and quota administration. Meanwhile, associations urge policy makers to protect trade with close partners, including Switzerland.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan may strengthen local mills, but it can also squeeze downstream margins fast. Policymakers should target circumvention without cutting access to specialised grades. A balanced design will decide whether Europe protects industry or prices it out.

EU CBAM Downstream Goods Expansion Targets Cars, Fridges and Components

EU CBAM

EU CBAM downstream goods coverage is set to expand from 1 January 2028 under a draft European Council compromise text. The proposal would apply the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to steel-intensive finished goods and components, including cars, washing machines, fridges and a wider range of downstream products.

The move marks a significant shift in Europe’s carbon trade policy. Until now, CBAM has focused mainly on basic materials and selected upstream products, but the new proposal would extend protection further along the industrial value chain.

EU CBAM downstream goods expansion directly addresses a long-standing concern in the steel market. Without downstream coverage, importers could bypass carbon costs by bringing in finished products or components instead of covered steel inputs.

Downstream Protection Becomes Central to Steel Competitiveness

Downstream protection has been strongly supported by parts of the European steel market, including distributors association Eurometal. The argument is straightforward: CBAM cannot protect European steel producers if foreign manufacturers can export carbon-intensive finished goods into the EU without equivalent carbon costs.

The proposed expansion would therefore widen the policy shield around European steel-intensive manufacturing. Cars, appliances, machinery parts and components all contain embedded steel, and their inclusion could reduce the risk of carbon leakage moving further down the value chain.

This matters for European industrial competitiveness. Steelmakers, processors, distributors and manufacturers are all exposed if carbon pricing raises domestic production costs while finished imports remain outside the mechanism.

Verification Capacity Remains a Key Implementation Risk

The draft text also points to possible agreements for mutual recognition of third-country accreditation bodies. This is designed to address a major implementation bottleneck: the limited number of recognised verification bodies able to carry out CBAM audits.

Only six verification bodies have so far been recognised, which may be insufficient for the number of steel mills and exporters seeking approval before the deadline. Without broader verification capacity, CBAM implementation could face delays, disputes and administrative pressure.

The European Parliament is also moving through its own process. Dutch centre-left member Mohammed Chahim has been appointed to draft the legal report, with an environment committee vote expected on 6 July and an indicative plenary vote scheduled for September. That process will shape parliament’s position before final negotiations with EU member states.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU CBAM downstream goods proposal shows that Brussels is moving from carbon accounting toward industrial border protection. If adopted, it could reshape trade flows for steel, appliances, automotive components and machinery by forcing carbon costs deeper into finished-product supply chains.

EU CBAM Extension Could Cover 200 More Steel and Aluminium Products

CBAM

EU CBAM extension plans could widen the carbon border adjustment mechanism to around 200 additional downstream products that use significant volumes of steel and aluminium. The proposal goes beyond the European Commission’s earlier plan covering 180 product codes.

EU CBAM extension reflects growing concern that carbon leakage could shift from raw materials into manufactured goods. If downstream products remain outside the mechanism, overseas producers using higher-carbon steel or aluminium could gain a cost advantage over European manufacturers.

EU CBAM extension would therefore move the system deeper into industrial supply chains. The impact could reach fabricated steel products, aluminium-intensive components and other manufactured goods that compete directly with EU-made products.

The Council presidency also wants the list of covered customs codes to remain flexible, allowing future additions or adjustments as trade patterns and circumvention risks evolve.

Downstream Expansion Targets Carbon Leakage Beyond Raw Materials

CBAM initially focused mainly on carbon-intensive upstream materials, including iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen.

The next phase targets a structural weakness in that model. European manufacturers can face higher carbon costs when using domestically produced steel or aluminium, while competing imported finished products may avoid equivalent charges.

Extending CBAM downstream aims to close that gap. It would place more imported products under carbon-cost rules based on the emissions embedded in their metal content and production.

For European steel and aluminium producers, the change could strengthen demand for regional low-carbon material. Downstream manufacturers may have less incentive to substitute EU metal-intensive products with cheaper imports produced under weaker carbon constraints.

But the administrative burden could rise. Importers and overseas manufacturers will need more detailed emissions data, product classifications and supply-chain documentation.

The Council presidency is therefore trying to balance wider emissions coverage with manageable reporting requirements. Three medical-use customs codes have been proposed for removal from the expanded list, reflecting concerns over unnecessary complexity in sensitive sectors.

Aluminium and Steel Supply Chains Face Wider Compliance Pressure

The expansion could have important consequences for global metals trade. Exporters of fabricated steel and aluminium products into Europe may increasingly need to demonstrate embedded emissions and product origin.

This could influence sourcing decisions far beyond primary metal. Extrusions, fabricated components, steel structures and other downstream goods may face stronger pressure to use lower-carbon feedstock.

For aluminium producers, access to renewable electricity and recycled metal could become more valuable. For steelmakers, electric arc furnace production, scrap use and lower-carbon iron inputs could improve competitiveness.

The proposal also strengthens the role of customs classification. A continuously adjustable list of CN codes would allow the EU to respond as companies change product routes or trade patterns to avoid carbon costs.

That flexibility could make CBAM more effective, but it also increases regulatory uncertainty for exporters. Companies selling into Europe will need to track not only carbon prices but also changing product coverage.

The Council has broadly supported extending CBAM to more downstream products, although some member states have argued for a narrower approach. The final scope will therefore depend on negotiations between EU institutions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBAM is evolving from a raw-material carbon mechanism into a wider industrial trade tool. For steel and aluminium suppliers, competitiveness will increasingly depend on proving low-carbon production across the entire downstream value chain.

EU Launches Review of Steel Import Safeguard Tariffs: Changes Expected from April 2025

The European Commission(EC)

The European Commission(EC) has officially launched a review of its steel import safeguard tariff-rate quotas, with proposed changes to take effect from 1 April 2025. This review, which follows a request by 13 EU member states on 29 November 2024, aims to address the evolving dynamics of steel imports into the EU. The focus will be on adjusting quotas, particularly in light of a contraction in EU demand and a rise in Chinese steel exports, which have led to shifts in trade flows.

Key Changes Under Review for Steel Safeguard Tariffs

The EC's review will examine several key aspects of the current steel import safeguard measures. Among the possible changes is the introduction of a new quota volume. EU steel producers have expressed concerns that current duty-free quota volumes no longer align with the demand in the EU, with some regions experiencing gaps due to shrinking consumption. Additionally, an increase in Chinese steel exports has led to an influx of steel from other countries into the EU market, further complicating the allocation of quotas.

The EC will reassess how these quotas are managed and allocated. Producers and users have been invited to provide feedback via a questionnaire, which must be submitted by 10 January 2025. Some of the other factors under evaluation include the exclusion of certain developing countries from the safeguard measures based on their 2024 imports, as well as potential updates to the level of liberalization within the quotas.

The steel safeguard measures, which were first introduced provisionally in 2018, became definitive in 2019. Initially set for a three-year period, they were extended for another year until June 2024 and then further extended until June 2026. Recent updates to these measures have had a noticeable impact on trade, particularly with the cap on hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rod quotas from ‘other countries’ being limited to 15% per origin. This has resulted in a significant reduction in import opportunities, especially for smaller markets.

The Impact of the Quota Review on Steel Imports

The current steel import safeguard measures have significantly impacted trade flows within the EU. In previous years, quotas would exhaust quickly after being reset each quarter, but the 15% cap on 'other countries' volumes has left a larger portion of the quotas underused. While there were expectations that some countries, like South Korea, could increase exports to the EU in April 2025 when residual quota volumes become available, the upcoming review could alter this outlook.

With EU imports largely unaffected by these changes so far due to a rush to buy final volumes before the duties apply, the redistribution of quotas will be a key focus of the review. The EC aims to ensure that the safeguard measures strike a balance between protecting EU producers and allowing for sufficient import access to meet demand. These changes, when finalized, could have significant implications for steel producers and importers alike, influencing trade relationships and steel prices in the EU market.

Outokumpu Pushes for Tighter EU Steel Safeguards

Outokumpu

Outokumpu is putting EU steel safeguards at the centre of Europe’s industrial and climate debate. The Finnish stainless producer argues that current EU steel safeguards are too weak in the face of Asian overcapacity, diverted imports and sluggish European demand. As a result, Outokumpu says stronger EU steel safeguards are now essential to protect strategic supply chains and the business case for green steel investment.

Outokumpu links safeguards to decarbonisation and strategic autonomy

Outokumpu warns that Europe faces a surge of low-priced Asian stainless imports just as demand remains weak. The company argues that US tariffs of 50pc on steel are pushing excess volumes away from the US and into the EU market. Therefore, it believes new EU steel safeguards must prevent Europe from becoming a dumping ground for surplus Asian stainless steel. The company frames stronger safeguards as vital for mobility, infrastructure, defence and clean-tech value chains.

Outokumpu also connects trade defence directly to climate policy and low-carbon steel investment. It highlights its own stainless footprint of 1.6kg CO₂e/kg, versus a global average near 7kg CO₂e/kg. That advantage relies on high scrap usage and low-carbon power, which also increase production costs. Without tougher EU steel safeguards, Outokumpu argues, higher-emission Asian material will undercut European producers and undermine decarbonisation.

A blueprint for stricter quotas and carbon-aware trade rules

Outokumpu has tabled a detailed proposal for the next safeguard regime after 2026. It wants global tariff-rate quotas with strict per-country limits based on low-demand years such as 2012-13. Under its plan, imports above quota would face a 50pc tariff, with origin defined by melt-and-pour to block circumvention. It also opposes any quota carry-over, which can create import surges at quarter-end and destabilise prices.

The company calls for regular reviews of quota levels and tariffs, plus an emergency mechanism for sudden demand shocks. That mechanism would allow the EU to react if steel demand rebounds or if geopolitical events reshape trade flows. Outokumpu says the goal is to restore sustainable capacity utilisation and profitability for European mills. It stresses that, if Asian production displaces European output, Europe’s carbon footprint will rise and valuable stainless scrap will remain under-used.

Outokumpu further warns of growing strategic dependence on Indonesia and China if Brussels fails to act. In its view, weaker safeguards risk eroding European melting capacity and hollowing out the region’s stainless value chain. That would leave downstream manufacturers more exposed to external shocks and politically driven export restrictions. Stronger EU steel safeguards, the company argues, are therefore not only about prices, but also about security of supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s intervention shows how trade defence, scrap utilisation and decarbonisation are now tightly interconnected in stainless steel. Brussels will need to balance open markets with credible protection for low-carbon producers if it wants green steel investment to continue. How the next safeguard package is designed will shape Europe’s stainless landscape – and its climate credentials – for the next decade.

EU to Implement ‘Melt and Pour’ Rule in Steel Trade Defense

EU Steel

New origin rule targets duty evasion and strengthens trade protections

The European Commission will introduce a “melted and poured” clause as part of its steel and metals action plan, aimed at tightening trade defense measures across the EU steel sector. This clause will assign origin based on where steel was originally melted, regardless of later processing locations.

Steel Origin Rules Target Evasion via Minimal Processing

The move addresses growing concerns that foreign producers—especially in countries like China—circumvent EU tariffs through minimal downstream processing. For example, converting hot-rolled steel into hot-dip galvanised outside the EU currently allows for reclassification, bypassing existing anti-dumping duties.

With the new rule, such transformations will no longer alter origin, preventing manipulation and reinforcing fair-trade enforcement. According to a draft of the plan, this rule will clarify product origin and prevent exploitation of loopholes in trade regulations.

Broader Measures Target Steel Overcapacity and Carbon Leakage

In addition to the melt and pour clause, the European Commission plans to proactively launch investigations based on “threat of injury” instead of waiting for economic harm. The action plan also extends the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to include downstream steel products, such as finished or semi-finished components.

This change addresses the risk that producers may shift exports to downstream goods to avoid carbon taxes on raw materials. European steel service centers and distributors have demanded such protections to prevent unfair import competition and carbon leakage.

Trade groups like Eurofer have long requested these rules, especially as Chinese-origin steel continues entering the EU via indirect supply chains. A representative from a major steel trading firm called the new clause a "game changer" for the European market.

EU Green Procurement Rules Face Industry Criticism Over Weak Steel and Fertilizer Demand

Hydrogen Europe

EU green procurement rules are drawing sharp criticism from Hydrogen Europe after leaked draft legislation reduced the proposed low-carbon steel requirement in public procurement to 25pc from an earlier 70pc. The industry group said the change weakens the demand signal needed to support green steel, hydrogen, and low-carbon industrial investment.

EU green procurement rules in the latest draft require steel used in buildings, infrastructure, and transport projects to include at least 25pc low-carbon steel by volume. Hydrogen Europe argues that this level is too low to create a bankable market for emerging producers such as Stegra, Hydnum Steel, Saarstahl, and Salzgitter.

The dispute highlights a central problem in Europe’s industrial transition. Producers are being asked to invest in low-carbon steel, hydrogen, and cleaner fertilizers, but public procurement rules may not create enough guaranteed demand to justify those investments.

Low-Carbon Steel Requirement Falls Short of Industry Expectations

The reduction from 70pc to 25pc changes the industrial meaning of the proposal. A higher procurement target would have created a stronger lead market for European green steel, giving producers clearer demand visibility and helping justify capital spending on hydrogen-based and low-emission production routes.

Hydrogen Europe said the current draft does little to improve competitiveness against Chinese steel and Russian fertilizer imports. This is important because European producers face higher energy costs, strict carbon rules, and heavy investment requirements, while import competition continues to pressure margins.

The Industrial Accelerator Act still recognizes energy-intensive sectors through greenhouse gas intensity classification systems. These include fertilizers, chemicals, rubber, paper, plastics, coke, refined petroleum products, cement, glass, steel, and aluminium. However, the draft does not set green public procurement requirements for most of these product groups.

Fertilizer Sector Waits for Stronger Demand Measures

The fertilizer sector appears to receive limited support in the current draft. Industry sources said the sector may need to wait for the Fertiliser Action Plan, expected in the second quarter, for more concrete demand-side measures.

Low-carbon fertilizers matter because they connect clean ammonia, hydrogen demand, agriculture, and food supply chains. However, procurement requirements are more politically complex because agriculture remains highly sensitive to cost increases and supply security concerns.

The final clean product procurement percentage will be negotiated over the next 12-18 months by the European parliament and EU member states. That process will determine whether EU green procurement rules become a serious industrial policy tool or remain a limited climate-labeling framework.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s problem is no longer only technology readiness; it is market creation. Without stronger demand rules for low-carbon steel, hydrogen, and fertilizers, the EU risks asking companies to invest in clean capacity without giving them a reliable customer base.

Europe Faces Deindustrialization Crisis Amidst Unfair Competition and Policy Struggles

Aperam

Europe’s stainless steel industry is at a critical crossroads, facing existential challenges due to high raw material costs and increasing competition from Asian producers. According to Timoteo di Maulo, CEO of Aperam, the European sector is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on more expensive, environmentally-friendly processes, while Asian producers benefit from cheaper, carbon-intensive nickel pig iron (NPI). Speaking at the SMR International and Special Steels Conference in Rome, di Maulo warned, “Europe will die if it cannot create a level playing field,” likening the current situation to playing European football against American football, a game neither possible nor fair.

Stainless Steel Demand Decline and Unequal Standards

Market data from SMR revealed that real stainless steel demand in Europe is expected to fall by 6% in 2024, following a decline of 3% in 2022 and 8% in 2023. The gap in production methods between Europe and Asian competitors is widening, as Indian and Chinese producers are not required to use high scrap ratios, giving them a distinct cost advantage. European steelmakers, driven by stringent EU decarbonization policies, are forced to use higher-priced scrap, further straining the industry's competitiveness.

Di Maulo emphasized that while both Europe and Asia rely on ferro-nickel and NPI, European producers face additional financial burdens that threaten the industry’s long-term viability. The decarbonization measures that Europe imposes on its steelmakers are not mirrored in Asia, where efforts to reduce carbon emissions fall short of European standards.

The situation is compounded by the upcoming European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026. Di Maulo described CBAM as an experimental policy that risks accelerating deindustrialization by limiting raw material imports while incentivizing the import of finished goods. Other industry leaders echoed these concerns, warning that CBAM, conceived as a tax but transformed into a green policy tool, is impractical and will further weaken Europe's position in global trade.

Industry Leaders Call for Pragmatic Solutions

At the same conference, Indian producer Jindal Stainless highlighted India’s dependence on NPI due to rapid industrial growth and a shortage of scrap metal. Ratan Jindal, chairman of the company, pointed out that proposed restrictions on scrap imports, such as the EU Waste Shipment Regulation, will only exacerbate this issue.

The consensus among European stainless steel executives is that CBAM, as it currently stands, is deeply flawed. Spanish producer Acerinox’s CEO, Bernardo Velazquez, stressed the difficulty of applying CBAM uniformly across Europe due to differing national tax systems. Italian steelmaker Marcegaglia’s CEO, Antonio Marcegaglia, criticized CBAM for being limited to early stages of the production cycle and for failing to address the broader economic realities of the stainless steel industry. Dimitri Menecali of Arvedi AST added that without addressing Scope 3 emissions—those created further down the supply chain—CBAM would not effectively promote sustainability.

The industry is calling for more coordinated policies and international alliances to ensure Europe's stainless steel sector remains competitive. As di Maulo stated, “There is a role for industrialization in Europe, in innovation, high performance, and service-oriented materials.”

EU Steel Import Proposal Freezes Trade and Deepens Market Divide

EU steel

The EU steel import proposal has pushed the European steel market into a new standstill as stakeholders reassess risk and supply. Producers see the EU steel import proposal as a long-awaited shield against global overcapacity and unfairly priced imports. However, buyers and downstream manufacturers warn that the same EU steel import proposal could choke critical inflows, push prices higher and erode competitiveness just as demand remains fragile.

Buyers fear a ‘steel clamp’ on downstream manufacturing

Assofermet describes the new regime as a “steel clamp” on distributors and processors that depend on non-EU material to fill gaps. It argues that the 50pc out-of-quota duty and deep quota cuts could effectively shut many import routes and destabilise supply. As a result, downstream steel users face higher costs, thinner margins and greater difficulty competing in global export markets. European automakers share similar concerns. Acea notes that even though 90pc of their steel is sourced domestically, the remaining imported grades are essential for safety-critical and advanced components. However, the group warns that sharply lower quotas and a 50pc duty will remove an important pressure valve for a market already stretched by energy costs and decarbonisation demands. Acea also criticises the melt-and-pour origin rule, arguing that it will add heavy administrative load to complex automotive supply chains without clear proportional benefits.

Producers back tighter controls to restore utilisation and independence

In contrast, Eurofer hails the proposal as a “major leap forward” in defending EU steel from low-priced, high-volume imports. The association points to quota breaches “by triple digits in just two days” under current rules as proof that existing safeguards are too loose. Therefore, Eurofer sees the new tariff-rate quota structure as a way to maintain fair import access while preventing destabilising surges. The ultimate objective is to lift plant utilisation from unsustainable levels around 65pc back towards 80-85pc, which is vital for viability and decarbonisation investment. Eurofer also backs the melt-and-pour clause to improve traceability and deter circumvention via third countries, and wants future coverage extended to steel derivatives. Meanwhile, day-to-day trading has slowed sharply as mills, traders and buyers wait for clarity on timelines and country allocations. Import activity is likely to remain subdued until the proposal passes the EU’s legislative process and implementation details become clearer, leaving the market in limbo.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU steel import proposal underscores a widening policy divide between protecting primary production and safeguarding downstream competitiveness. If design and implementation lean too far toward insulation, the risk is a tighter, more expensive steel market that accelerates deindustrialisation rather than preventing it. The eventual outcome will hinge on how Brussels balances utilisation targets with the real needs of processors, automakers and exporters across the EU value chain.