Tesla LFP cell production stays on track as US cathode push advances

Tesla LFP cell

Tesla LFP cell production remains on schedule as the company advances US lithium refining and cathode output. The plan prioritizes onshore battery materials and the first domestic LFP cells this year. The strategy targets energy storage markets alongside vehicle electrification.

Refining, cathode and storage milestones

Tesla said its LFP cell factory in Sparks, Nevada is nearing completion. The company began operating a lithium hydroxide refinery near Corpus Christi in December 2024. Energy storage deployments rose 2% to 9.6GWh in the recent quarter. Tesla also deployed the first Megapacks from its Shanghai factory. The company said paired solar and Megapack systems are cost-competitive with fossil power.

Demand, profitability and policy headwinds

Quarterly deliveries fell to 384,122 EVs, from 443,956 a year earlier. Second-quarter profit slipped 16% to $1.2bn on lower volumes and pricing. Tesla launched a Robotaxi service in Austin and introduced Model Y in India. The company reported market share declines across the US, Canada, Europe and China. Tesla LFP cell production remains central to its US supply chain plans.

However, tariff and policy shifts are pressuring margins. Tesla estimated about $300mn in added tariff costs this year. Two-thirds affect the automotive segment and the rest the energy business. The company cited challenges from the July 4 tax and energy law and tariffs. The $7,500 US tax credit repeal by quarter-end limited domestic vehicle supply. Management said early credit expirations also weigh on residential storage demand. Tesla LFP cell production is intended to offset import exposure over time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tesla’s domestic cathode and LFP build-out lowers geopolitical and tariff risk across its battery supply chain. Watch commissioning pace in Sparks and ramp efficiency at Corpus Christi for cost traction. Policy volatility remains the swing factor for US demand and profitability.

China Steel Stabilisation Plan Targets Capacity Discipline and 4% Growth

China Steel

China unveiled the China steel stabilisation plan for 2025–26 to steady industry growth. The China steel stabilisation plan targets about 4% added value growth and bans new capacity. Regulators will curb unfair competition and retire inefficient production.

Market signals after the announcement

Chinese rebar futures rose, and mills lifted ex-works prices modestly. However, spot trading remained slow despite firmer sentiment. Seaborne iron ore held steady as daily pig iron output rose to about 2.41mn t/d. Meanwhile, coking coal futures ended little changed, as participants assessed policy impact.

Policymakers will tighten control of capacity and output to balance supply and demand. As a result, weaker producers should exit through market-based mechanisms. Authorities also promised investment to upgrade technology and accelerate the green energy transition. The plan seeks more high-grade steel through innovation and process improvements.

China’s near-term production trend remains soft. August crude steel output fell 0.7% year on year to 77.36mn t. January–August output declined 2.8% to 671.81mn t amid weak construction demand. In 2024, the top five provinces’ output fell 3.2% to 522.73mn t, or 52% of national totals. Earlier guidance from Beijing urged an orderly exit of outdated capacity, echoing past supply-side reforms.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The China steel stabilisation plan reasserts capacity discipline while nudging mills toward higher-grade, lower-emission output. Watch provincial enforcement, financing for upgrades, and raw-material pass-throughs to gauge durability. Short-term price firmness may fade if end-use demand fails to improve.

US adds scandium oxide to National Defense Stockpile

Scandium Oxide

The US adds scandium oxide to National Defense Stockpile to bolster supply security. The DLA opened bids for multi-year supply. This US adds scandium oxide to National Defense Stockpile step targets semiconductors and advanced electronics.

Procurement details and supplier landscape

The DLA will award fixed-price delivery orders over five years. It seeks an indefinite quantity of scandium oxide. The agency identified Rio Tinto as a North American source. Rio Tinto produces high-purity scandium oxide at Sorel-Tracy, Canada. Only Rio Tinto signaled immediate capability in DLA’s RFI.

Implications for critical minerals and semiconductors

Scandium strengthens aluminum alloys and supports power electronics. Therefore, the decision supports defense and industrial resilience. The DLA also issued RFIs for cobalt, bismuth, high-purity aluminum, niobium, and ferro-niobium. It requested information on scandium metal and scandium flake as well. Rio Tinto began commercial-scale output in May 2022.

The market sees clearer demand signals from US stockpiling. Meanwhile, suppliers can plan capacity and logistics accordingly. Consequently, the US adds scandium oxide to National Defense Stockpile milestone may crowd-in private investment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adding scandium oxide to the DNS formalizes a persistent gap in US materials policy. Watch awarded volumes, delivery cadence, and any parallel alloy programs. Together, these will determine whether procurement translates into durable industrial capacity.

Nevada tungsten project secures $6.2mn DOD funding

Nevada tungsten

Golden Metal Resources won $6.2mn for the Pilot Mountain site in Nevada. The Nevada tungsten project received Defense Production Act Title III funding. The Nevada tungsten project will complete a pre-feasibility study under the award. Therefore, the Nevada tungsten project advances US critical minerals strategy.

Why the funding matters

The DOD views tungsten as a critical and strategic priority. No commercial tungsten production exists in the US today. Therefore, Pilot Mountain could reduce import reliance if commercialized. The award is one of eight DPA approvals this year. It is the third tungsten sourcing award since 2024. Golden Metal Resources is a unit of Guardian Metal Resources.

Strategic implications for supply chains

China produced 83pc of global tungsten in 2024. Beijing also applied export controls in February. As a result, diversifying supply is a national priority. The project supports aerospace and defense alloy production. Downstream users include jet engines, electronics, and precision munitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

DPA funding de-risks early studies and tightens links to defense demand. Watch PFS scope, permitting, and offtake formation, which will gauge bankability. If progress holds, Pilot Mountain could anchor a domestic tungsten chain.

Rio Tinto-Enami lithium JV signs binding deal for Altoandinos salar

Enami lithium

The Rio Tinto-Enami lithium JV became official with a binding agreement for Chile’s Altoandinos salt flats. The JV will explore and develop Chile’s largest unexplored lithium deposit, as previously nominated by Enami. The Rio Tinto-Enami lithium JV targets development in the Atacama desert.

Scale and structure

Under the agreement, Rio Tinto will hold 51% and Enami 49%. Both parties will invest a combined $3bn in the project. Rio Tinto will contribute $425mn in cash and non-cash items. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026.

Resource potential and timeline

According to Enami, the salar holds over 15mn tonnes LCE. Potential production could reach 75,000 t/yr at full scale. However, the partners have not set an operating start date.

The Rio Tinto-Enami lithium JV focuses on developing and exploring reserves under the Altoandinos salt flats. Meanwhile, the Atacama location underscores Chile’s strategic role in lithium supply. As a result, the JV could become a key source for battery materials once online.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement formalizes a major public-private alignment in Chile’s lithium sector. Scale, location, and shared ownership provide optionality, though timing remains the critical variable for market impact.

Aerolloy VAR furnace boosts India’s titanium casting capability

Aerolloy Technologies

Aerolloy Technologies has commissioned a VAR furnace in Lucknow, India. The Aerolloy VAR furnace expands domestic titanium casting for engines and turbines. Therefore, the Aerolloy VAR furnace strengthens India’s aerospace and defence supply chain.

Why this matters for aerospace programs

The new furnace sits inside PTC’s Aerospace Precision Castings Plant in Lucknow. It enables large titanium castings for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines. Casting delivers near-net-shape parts, reducing machining time and scrap rates. Meanwhile, Aerolloy also commissioned a VIM furnace for superalloy castings earlier this month.

Customer traction and program links

Aerolloy signed a long-term purchase order with Safran Aircraft Engines in March. The order covers seven cast components for CFM International’s LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B engines. The agreement builds on Safran’s February 2023 approval to develop and supply cast components.

PTC Industries owns Aerolloy as a wholly-owned subsidiary. The company did not disclose capacity figures for the VIM or VAR lines. However, the integrated melt-to-cast setup should improve lead times and sourcing resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s melt capability is moving upstream from machining to critical casting. As a result, titanium and superalloy value capture should deepen locally. Watch qualification cycles and yield metrics, which will determine ramp speed into global engine programs.

Collins Aerospace Texas expansion secures $57mn investment and 570 jobs

Collins Aerospace

Collins Aerospace will expand manufacturing and R&D in Richardson, Texas. The Collins Aerospace Texas expansion totals $57mn. Texas awarded a $3.7mn Enterprise Fund grant. The Collins Aerospace Texas expansion will create 570 jobs.

Investment and incentives

Governor Greg Abbott announced the expansion and grant. The Collins Aerospace Texas expansion strengthens local advanced manufacturing capacity. RTX’s subsidiary will apply the funds to facilities, tooling, and hiring.

Industry impact and supply chain

Collins Aerospace manufactures systems for commercial aviation, defense, and space. Added capacity should support US aerospace supply chains. As a result, regional suppliers of alloys and electronics may see steadier demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

State incentives remain decisive in high-tech site selection. Watch how talent pipelines and supplier onboarding pace the ramp. Material inputs, from aluminum alloys to precision components, will signal the project’s true cadence.

Amag aluminium earnings fall in 2Q as US tariffs squeeze margins

Amag aluminium

Amag aluminium earnings fell in the second quarter as US tariffs and higher costs hit profitability. EBITDA dropped 34.7% to €34.6mn while revenue rose 3.5% to €384.8mn. Shipments edged up 0.4% to 110,800t, yet pricing pressure intensified. Meanwhile, the 50% US tariff effective 4 June will weigh more on the second half. As a result, Amag aluminium earnings remain under strain despite stable volumes.

Tariffs and costs pressure all divisions

Tariffs and input inflation affected metals, casting, and rolling. The metals division absorbed higher alumina prices and US import duties. The casting unit faced sharper price pressure for recycled cast alloys. Therefore, the rolling division endured tariff-driven trade flow shifts and market price declines. Elevated energy and labour costs compounded the squeeze on margins and Amag aluminium earnings.

Half-year results and H2 setup

First-half EBITDA fell 15.4% to €80.6mn on revenue up 11.1% to €786.2mn. Shipments increased 2.9% to 220,400t, but profitability lagged volume. The company expects the 50% US tariff to bite harder in H2 2025. Management maintained stable capacity utilisation, yet near-term losses from tariffs and costs cannot be offset. The CEO urged a viable US trade agreement and improved domestic conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff escalation is amplifying European downstream aluminium margin risk just as power and wage bills stay high. Amag’s levers are mix, energy efficiency, and sales re-routing while advocating predictable US-EU trade terms. Watch H2 for the full tariff impact and any relief from alumina and energy costs.

Lynas record rare earth output sets new quarterly high

Lynas

Lynas record rare earth output topped 2,000t of NdPr in April–June, delivering its best quarter to date. Total rare earth oxide production reached 3,212t, up 47% year on year and 68% quarter on quarter. Neodymium-praseodymium output climbed to 2,080t as Lynas progressively commissioned assets.

Prices and demand strengthen

Sales revenue rose to A$170.2mn, up 38% quarter on quarter and nearly 25% year on year. The average selling price climbed to A$60.20/kg, the highest since July 2022. The increase coincided with China’s export controls on some medium and heavy rare earths in April. Meanwhile, China accelerated export-permit approvals and may have allocated initial production quotas.

Strategic moves expand capacity and scope

Lynas reported a significant rise in orders from direct customers and new magnet projects. However, it is preparing for continued market volatility in July–September. The company signed a non-binding deal with Korea’s JS Link to develop a 3,000 t/yr sintered magnet plant near its Malaysian site. Lynas will supply materials, and Malaysia’s floated raw-material export ban in 2023 did not proceed.

Lynas produced its first separated dysprosium in May and first separated terbium in June in Malaysia. As a result, it became the first producer of separated heavy rare earths outside China. Allocation of production capacity remains in progress. Lynas record rare earth output now aligns with new heavy rare earth capabilities.

Lynas also signed with Kelantan’s investment agency to secure new feedstock for Malaysia. Therefore, it aims to stabilise higher run rates while matching demand swings. Lynas record rare earth output positions the firm for growth despite near-term volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas’ record NdPr quarter, firmer pricing, and Dy/Tb separation outside China reduce supply-chain concentration risk. Yet short-term pricing will hinge on China’s permitting cadence and project ramps. The JS Link tie-up signals pragmatic downstream integration close to processing hubs.

Argentina RIGI lithium project approval: Galan’s HMW secures $217mn under incentives

Galan Lithium

Argentina RIGI lithium project approval moved forward as Galan Lithium won the green light for Hombre Muerto West. Phase one secures $217mn under the program’s incentives. The brine project sits in Catamarca, a core Argentine lithium basin. Argentina RIGI lithium project approval underscores policy support for battery materials growth.

What the approval covers

Galan plans 4,000 t/yr LCE, with potential to lift output to 5,400 t/yr. The final product will be lithium chloride concentrate for battery production. RIGI reduces the corporate tax rate to 25pc and waives trade duties. It also eases currency rules and guarantees 30 years of legal stability. Therefore, Argentina RIGI lithium project approval improves bankability for new brine investments.

Winners and exclusions under RIGI

Rio Tinto’s Rincon won approval in May, targeting 60,000 t/yr by decade’s end. Planned investments approach $2.7bn for that project. However, the ministry rejected Ganfeng’s Mariana application, as the mine was inaugurated last year. Beyond mining, RIGI has supported a solar project, an oil pipeline, FLNG and a steel mill.

Argentina produced 18,000t of lithium last year, ranking fourth globally. Reserves total 4mn t, and resources stand at 23mn t. As a result, Argentina RIGI lithium project approval complements a deep pipeline of salars. Investors should watch ramp timing, permitting steps, and downstream offtake execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

RIGI’s incentives directly target project finance risks for brine developers. Galan’s phased plan is modest yet catalytic for Catamarca. Execution on product quality and logistics will determine commercial momentum.

Vale 2Q nickel output hits highest since 2021

Vale

Vale 2Q nickel output surged 44% year on year to 40,300t. The result marks the highest quarterly level since 2021. Vale 2Q nickel output rose on stronger production in Brazil and Canada.

Canada leads gains; Brazil also rises

Canadian operations nearly tripled to 21,300t. Voisey's Bay more than tripled to 8,600t. Sudbury output nearly tripled to 8,600t on productivity gains. Brazil produced 4,800t, up from 3,000t. Therefore, diversified assets drove the quarterly rebound.

Maintenance, sales and pricing

Vale scheduled third-quarter maintenance at seven Canadian facilities. Creighton will shut for five weeks. Clarabelle mill will shut for four weeks. These outages may temper near-term volumes.

Nickel sales reached 41,400t, up 7,000t year on year. Average realized prices fell 15% to $15,800/t. Lower LME prices drove the decline. Meanwhile, higher shipments supported quarterly revenue.

As a result, Vale 2Q nickel output underpins supply despite softer pricing. Investors should watch maintenance impacts and discipline on costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s surge reflects operational normalization, not market tightness. Sustained gains require stable Canadian uptime and productivity at Brazil. Price headwinds persist while Indonesian supply overhangs the market.

Lucid critical minerals partnership targets stronger US EV supply chains

Lucid Motors

Lucid Motors has formed the Lucid critical minerals partnership to bolster domestic sourcing for EV manufacturing. The collaboration, called MINAC, unites prospective US producers and Lucid to accelerate critical mineral development. As a result, the Lucid critical minerals partnership seeks to reduce reliance on foreign inputs and strengthen national supply resilience.

How MINAC plans to accelerate supply

MINAC will identify regulatory and technical hurdles that slow US critical mineral projects. It will also foster long-term agreements between producers, automakers, and parts suppliers. Therefore, the Lucid critical minerals partnership aims to convert pilot output into bankable supply for EV supply chains.

Partners and policy alignment

Lucid partnered with Alaska Energy Metals, Graphite One, Electric Metals, and RecycLiCo to launch MINAC. Meanwhile, the initiative aligns with President Donald Trump’s March executive order promoting domestic critical mineral production. The Lucid critical minerals partnership positions US automakers to secure future feedstock more predictably.

MINAC’s structure targets timely procurement for nickel, graphite, and other battery materials. However, success depends on permitting progress and commercial offtake execution. As a result, sustained coordination across producers and OEMs will be essential.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This move signals OEMs are stepping upstream as policy and geopolitics reshape battery material flows. Watch for binding offtake, permitting milestones, and financing that translate policy momentum into metal at scale.

Crown warns aluminum can supply will tighten through 2025

Crown Holdings

Crown says aluminum can supply will tighten through late 2025 as demand outpaces capacity. The aluminum can supply outlook reflects stronger North American and European orders despite Asian tariff headwinds. As a result, Crown will boost efficiency and expand plants to protect aluminum can supply.

Demand growth offsets Asia weakness

Crown reports second-quarter growth across key end markets. North American beverage can shipments rose 1pc from the first quarter. European beverage can volumes increased 7pc, while North American food cans gained 5pc. However, Asia-Pacific volumes declined on tariff-driven weakness. Crown notes tariffs did not hit its Americas or European markets.

Capacity additions in Brazil and southern Europe

Crown will add a third line at Ponta Grossa, Brazil. The project lifts capacity to 3.6bn cans a year from 2.4bn. Commercial production is targeted for the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Crown is modernizing Korinthos, Greece. It will also add a new line at a southern Europe site to be named. These moves aim to relieve regional tightness and cut logistics bottlenecks.

Stronger can demand supports upstream aluminum coil and coating suppliers. Therefore, brand owners should secure 2025-2026 volumes early. Crown’s efficiency push and brownfield upgrades should help balance regional imbalances over time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Crown’s expansion signals sustained beverage packaging growth despite Asian softness. Expect contract pricing to favor reliable converters until new lines start. Watch Brazil and Greece timelines closely; any slippage could amplify near-term tightness.

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition boosts US precious metals recycling

Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition boosts US precious metals recycling

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition will add scale to US recycling. The $105mn deal secures Metallix Refining’s North Carolina assets. The Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition advances urban mining and awaits approvals to close in 3Q 2025. The move complements Sibanye’s US operations in Montana and Pennsylvania.

Why Metallix matters to Sibanye

Metallix operates two precious-metal facilities in Greenville, North Carolina. The plants serve customers in the US, UK, and South Korea. They recover gold, silver, and PGMs from industrial waste streams. Sources include catalytic converters, semiconductors, electroplating, and automotive scrap. The company processed 4.2mn lbs of feed in 2024. It produced 21,000oz gold and 874,000oz silver. It also produced 48,000oz palladium and 48,000oz platinum. Output included 4,000oz rhodium, 3,000oz iridium, and 263,000lb copper.

Metallix Refining

Strategic fit and expected synergies

Sibanye Stillwater Metallix acquisition strengthens sourcing and logistics. The company expects broader reach and optimized internal flows. It also deepens relationships across PGM and gold recycling. Management aims to expand urban mining with higher US capacity. The acquisition adds industrial feed that supports circular supply chains.

Sibanye will integrate Metallix with its Montana and Pennsylvania sites. As a result, the group can balance feed quality and throughput. The buyer highlighted improved material sourcing as a priority. Closing remains subject to regulatory approvals in the US. The transaction is targeted for the third quarter of 2025.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal extends Sibanye’s PGM and gold footprint into high-quality US industrial scrap. With tight primary PGM supply, diversified recycling becomes strategic insurance. Expect the combined platform to compete aggressively for catalytic and semiconductor residues.

US gallium production: DOE’s $6mn TRACE-Ga to secure critical supply

Energywerx

US gallium production gets a targeted boost under DOE’s new TRACE-Ga program. The initiative funds pilot plants that deliver 1 t/yr of 99.99% gallium. As a result, US gallium production could finally reduce import risk and price shocks.

What TRACE-Ga funds and requires

The program backs recovery from Bayer liquor and zinc residues at industrial scale. Awardees must pass a 14-day trial and produce 50 kg at 4N purity. Energywerx will manage the process and validate performance data. Meanwhile, submissions close on 20 November, with selections in late 2025. Therefore, early movers can lock in engineering momentum and offtake interest.

Why US gallium production matters now

China controls nearly all primary gallium output and restricted US exports. That constraint exposed defense, power electronics, LED, and solar supply chains. The USGS now tags gallium risk as high on its draft 2025 list. Consequently, US gallium production from residues can harden domestic MRO and chip back-ends. The goal is reliable GaN and GaAs inputs at competitive cost.

Developers should prioritize impurity control, reagent recycling, and modular plant design. In addition, multi-feed flexibility can expand sourcing from alumina and zinc circuits. If pilots scale, capital could flow into bankable commercial units by 2026. That path would anchor US gallium production near downstream device manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

TRACE-Ga is pragmatic policy aimed at mid-TRL bottlenecks, not labs. Watch purity, operating cost per kilogram, and secured offtake; those metrics will decide who scales.

GE Aerospace union deal secures five-year labor peace

GE Aerospace

GE Aerospace union deal ratification sets a five-year contract through 15 September 2030. The GE Aerospace union deal covers Evendale, Ohio, and Erlanger, Kentucky. More than 600 UAW members voted to approve the pact. The company and union began talks after an August strike over benefits and job security.

Operational and supply-chain implications

The agreement stabilizes engine and parts flows across key US sites. Evendale builds marine and industrial engines that feed defense and energy markets. Meanwhile, Erlanger distributes components that support new engine production. As a result, customers should see fewer delivery risks and steadier service levels.

Terms target core friction points without disclosed economics. Workers sought relief on healthcare costs, time-off, and job protection. Therefore, the pact should improve retention and productivity as output rises. The GE Aerospace union deal also anchors workforce planning for overhaul and spares.

This settlement narrows labor uncertainty in a tight aerospace supply chain. However, disciplined execution will determine on-time deliveries. The GE Aerospace union deal now gives both sides a framework to resolve issues early. That framework can reduce costly stoppages and trapped inventory.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Labor certainty often unlocks production gains faster than new capex. Expect near-term scheduling improvements at Evendale and Erlanger as teams realign. Watch absenteeism, overtime, and quality metrics as leading indicators of lasting peace.

Florence Copper first cathode by year-end as Taseko nears production

Copper Cathode Florence

Taseko targets Florence Copper first cathode by the end of 2025. The company says construction is over 90pc complete. It expects commercial operations in just a few months. Higher prices strengthen the economics of Florence Copper first cathode production. Investors now track Florence Copper first cathode milestones closely.

Project timeline and economics

Taseko expects the plant to produce 85mn lbs/yr of copper cathode at capacity. The Arizona site advances toward mechanical completion and commissioning. As a result, management argues near-term cash flows look robust. The guidance aligns with its build schedule and procurement cadence.

Market context and tariff tailwinds

Copper rallied to a record $5.72/lb on the CME this week. Meanwhile, planned US tariffs of 50pc on copper imports start 1 August. Taseko believes those tariffs will “further boost” project value. Therefore, domestic cathode should capture stronger realized pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Domestic cathode adds resilience to US supply at a pivotal moment. If execution holds, Florence could monetize today’s price strength. Watch tariff policy and commissioning performance for the next leg of value creation.

China’s Titanium Sponge Exports Double as Global Supply Tightens

China Titanium Sponge

China's titanium sponge exports surged 104% in 1H 2025 to 3,586t. China's titanium sponge exports filled supply gaps from Russia and Ukraine disruptions. China's titanium sponge exports now anchor aerospace-grade feedstock for global mills.

Drivers and supply displacement

War halted Zaporozhe operations and cut output at VSMPO-Avisma and Solikamsk. Consequently, international buyers pivoted to Chinese sponge to secure critical inputs. Demand came from aerospace, medical devices, and mill products manufacturers. Tighter supply outside China supported new contracts and spot lifting.

June slowdown and shifting destinations

However, June exports fell to 446t, down 33% year on year. Shipments also fell 32% from May amid absent US buying. Taiwan received 120t; South Korea 100t; the Netherlands 60t. India took 40t, and Japan purchased 25t during the month.

Meanwhile, US demand remained weak under higher tariffs and softer mill activity. First-half US receipts dropped 80% to 123t. As a result, Chinese supply rebalanced toward Asian and European customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

We expect contract buyers to hedge with multi-source sponge as tariffs evolve. Watch aerospace backlogs, Russian repairs, and US policy for price direction. Sustained US absence could deepen Asia-centric trade flows into 2026.

Yuneng CAM battery plant in Malaysia targets booming LFP demand

Yuneng

China’s Hunan Yuneng will build the Yuneng CAM battery plant in Malaysia to serve surging overseas demand. The $133mn project will add 90,000 t/yr of cathode active material capacity. The Yuneng CAM battery plant in Malaysia positions the company closer to EV and energy-storage customers.

Capacity, timeline, and market rationale

Yuneng will invest 950mn yuan to establish a wholly owned Malaysian subsidiary. Construction will take 15 months after approvals. The Yuneng CAM battery plant in Malaysia leverages Asean trade access and logistics advantages. LFP batteries now win on cost and durability, boosting global adoption. Major automakers are embracing LFP cells across mass-market models.

Yuneng’s growth and the wider China CAM push

Yuneng ran at 101% utilization in 2024, producing 735,462t of LFP. It sold 710,565t, with 41% shipped to energy storage projects. Overseas capacity hedges policy risk and potential domestic oversupply. Meanwhile, Chinese peers expand abroad to diversify supply chains. Lopal launched Indonesian LFP output in 2024, and Ronbay plans a European line. Easpring is building CAM in Finland, while XTC and Orano advance CAM facilities in France.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yuneng’s Malaysian move strengthens regional sourcing for EV and ESS cathodes. Watch siting, permitting, and feedstock procurement during execution. If timelines hold, Southeast Asia gains strategic weight in the global LFP ecosystem.

Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices jump after Baotou auction

NRE(Northern Rare Earth)

China’s leading producer lifted offers, sending Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices higher on the Baotou exchange. Strong bidding, thin inventories, and firmer magnet demand reinforced momentum across the rare earth value chain.

Auction results and near-term price signals

Northern Rare Earth sold 100t of PrNd metal on Repe in five bidding rounds. The lots cleared at the ceiling of Yn579.5/kg ex-works. The increase beat a Yn573/kg start and prior sales at Yn572/kg. As a result, Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices set a stronger reference level for spot trade.

Feedstock tightness lifts oxide and metal

Higher auction prints immediately buoyed oxide feedstock. Deals for 99% PrNd oxide closed at Yn498–500/kg ex-works. Meanwhile, magnet enquiries returned, lifting 99% metal to Yn598–605/kg ex-works. That range rose from Yn583–588/kg on 22 July, underscoring tightening availability.

Market participants cite constrained oxide supply and low magnet plant stocks. Therefore, sellers expect firmness while buyers tread cautiously after sustained gains. In this setting, Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices anchor bullish sentiment for NdFeB supply chains.

Short-term risks center on logistics, purchasing discipline, and downstream run-rates. However, resilient aerospace, EV motor, and wind turbine demand continues to support NdPr fundamentals. Price dips may attract restocking if oxide flows remain uneven.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Baotou auction reset the near-term floor for NdPr, with feedstock scarcity doing the heavy lifting. Watch magnet producers’ inventory cycles and any supply releases that could temper premiums. Until then, firmness prevails while procurement stays selective.

Boeing Strike Settlement Offer keeps union on the line as talks stall

Boeing

Union machinists advanced a Boeing strike settlement offer, yet the walkout continues. Members approved a four-year proposal and sent it to Boeing for sign-off. However, Boeing questioned the move, calling it a vote on “a deal that isn’t real.” The company reiterated its 10 September offer and said it remains open to constructive talks. The Boeing strike settlement offer now sits with management while pickets hold.

Operations continue under pressure

Boeing is sustaining defense production while the Boeing strike settlement offer awaits a response. More than 3,200 workers have struck since 4 August after rejecting the last deal on 12 September. As a result, Boeing is hiring permanent replacements and deploying non-union staff from other sites. The Missouri and Illinois facilities support F-15, F/A-18, T-7A Red Hawk, and MQ-25 programs critical to US defense.

Supply chain and cost risks rise

The prolonged strike raises execution risk across the aerospace supply chain. Delays can ripple to Tier-1 and Tier-2 partners supplying alloys, castings, and avionics. Meanwhile, schedule slippage may defer consumption of titanium and nickel components tied to engine and airframe systems. Therefore, sustained disruption could lift rework costs and dent on-time delivery metrics, even if near-term production continues.

The union insists Boeing “has a responsibility” to accept the union-backed framework. Boeing argues only its prior offer is actionable at this stage. Both sides signal openness to talks, yet material differences remain over terms and timing. Ultimately, program milestones will hinge on a negotiated pathway that restores stable staffing across the affected lines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Defense programs dislike uncertainty more than slowdown. Each week of disruption compounds integration risk, inventory mismatches, and supplier cash strain. Watch for interim MOUs that stage wage, benefit, and staffing provisions to restart momentum before a full contract is finalized.

Trump-Xi Tariff Talks Yield No Deal, TikTok Sale Path Clears

Trump-Xi

Trump-Xi tariff talks produced no tariff agreement on Friday. However, both sides signaled movement on a potential TikTok sale. Trump thanked Xi for “the TikTok approval” and cited progress on trade and fentanyl.

China’s readout framed the Trump-Xi tariff talks around fairness for Chinese firms. Beijing urged an “open, fair, non-discriminatory” US business environment. It also welcomed ByteDance’s negotiations with US buyers.

Earlier this year, Trump linked tariff relief to a TikTok sale. The Trump-Xi tariff talks did not resolve broad duties that now burden bilateral trade. US energy exports to China remain largely curtailed.

Tariffs, agriculture, and new measures

US soybean sales to China have lagged early in the 2025-26 season. Through two weeks, commitments trailed last year’s 5.94mn t pace. Meanwhile, Washington is assessing a 30pc broad tariff on Chinese imports.

China currently applies a broad 10pc tariff on US goods. It also adds 10–15pc on energy and farm commodities. Without a deal by 10 November, both sides warn rates could rise by 24 percentage points.

Beijing opened an antitrust probe into Nvidia last week. The US plans port fees on Chinese ship operators and vessels from 14 October. Those charges include $50/net ton and $18/net ton, respectively.

Diplomacy calendar ahead

Trump plans to meet Xi at APEC in South Korea on 31 October–1 November. He also outlined travel to China early next year. Xi may visit the US “at an appropriate time,” pending further progress.

The Chinese readout noted Xi’s 3 September military parade discussion. Both parties kept channels open despite unresolved tariff issues. Talks continue while agriculture and technology disputes persist.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff uncertainty continues to cloud pricing and procurement cycles. Near-term decisions on duties and platform divestment will shape fourth-quarter trade flows and 2026 planning across trans-Pacific supply chains.

Ecuador constitutional referendum: what a new charter means for energy and mining

Ecuador President Daniel Noboa

Investors face a pivotal Ecuador constitutional referendum within 75 days. The Ecuador constitutional referendum would authorize an assembly to draft a new charter. For energy and mining, the Ecuador constitutional referendum elevates questions on timelines, permits, and fiscal stability.

What could change for industry

President Daniel Noboa argues the 2008 charter blocks reforms. He targets politicized bodies that slowed social and economic changes. Consequently, a rewrite could reset hydrocarbons and mining frameworks. Companies should expect debate over royalties, licensing, and community consultation. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity may improve if institutions gain defined mandates.

Timeline and security provisions

The electoral authority must schedule the vote within 75 days. If approved, Ecuador will elect 80 assembly members within 90 days. Drafters would have up to eight months to deliver a text. Voters would decide on adoption by end-2026. Therefore, a new constitution could take effect in 2027.

Implications for oil, copper, and financing

Ecuador remains a notable oil producer with emerging copper prospects. Constitutional flux typically slows approvals and final investments. However, a credible roadmap can reduce country risk premiums. Lenders will watch fiscal anchors, environmental rules, and local content. As a result, deal terms may widen until the text stabilizes.

Foreign base clause and security optics

The ballot may also ask to allow foreign military bases. If passed, Quito could invite the US back to Manta for surveillance. Supporters see stronger security against narcotics networks. Critics warn of geopolitical sensitivities and domestic opposition. Investor perception will hinge on execution and legal safeguards.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Markets price uncertainty before they price opportunity. Clear drafting timelines and early sector chapters would steady capex plans. Watch for transitional clauses that lock existing contracts, minimizing disruption to oil and mining operations.

Nvidia invests $5bn in Intel to co-develop next-gen x86 and AI infrastructure

Nvidia & Intel

Nvidia invests $5bn in Intel to accelerate advanced chip development and AI infrastructure. The firms will co-design future x86 platforms. They will integrate Nvidia chiplets into Intel products. Nvidia invests $5bn in Intel through common stock at $23.28 a share, subject to closing. As a result, both aim to strengthen US semiconductor capacity.

Strategic co-development and chiplet roadmap

The partnership targets modular designs using advanced chiplets. Nvidia’s accelerators will link with Intel cores and I/O. Consequently, OEMs could build denser AI servers with lower latency. The roadmap focuses on packaging, interconnects, and memory bandwidth. Nvidia invests $5bn in Intel to scale these platforms quickly.

Implications for US semiconductor supply chains

The deal complements recent CHIPS funding for Intel. It reinforces domestic manufacturing and design sovereignty. Meanwhile, the collaboration diversifies supply away from single-node risks. It also supports AI data center growth and edge computing. Therefore, US buyers gain a deeper, on-shore ecosystem.

The investment includes a planned $5bn equity purchase by Nvidia. Intel will jointly develop products that embed Nvidia chiplets. In parallel, Intel advances foundry services for high-volume AI parts. The US government’s 10pc stake in Intel adds policy backing. Together, these steps signal durable public-private alignment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This tie-up tightens the US grip on high-end compute and packaging. If execution matches ambition, chiplet-based x86 platforms could reset AI TCO. Watch interoperability standards and packaging yields as leading indicators.

ASM expands rare earth metal sales amid new magnet deals and Dubbo capex cut

ASM(Australian Strategic Materials)

ASM expands rare earth metal sales with larger NdFeB and NdPr allocations across key markets. The move reinforces supply chain diversification for magnets. Therefore, ASM expands rare earth metal sales while building momentum for upstream integration.

New sales with Noveon, VAC and Neo

ASM agreed 22.2t of NdFeB metal sales in April–June. It will supply 15t to Noveon Magnetics and 7.2t to VAC. Shipments began with 1.2t to Noveon and 1.2t to VAC in June. Remaining volumes deliver through the second half of 2025.

ASM sold 10t of NdPr metal to Neo in July. Cumulative NdPr sales to Neo reached 29t. It also sold 2kg of dysprosium and 2kg of terbium. Meanwhile, the partners are pursuing tolling deals for NdPr, Dy, and Tb.

These contracts expand non-Chinese magnet supply options. They support Western magnet manufacturing and defense applications. As a result, ASM expands rare earth metal sales into priority geographies. The Korean Metals Plant anchors NdFeB alloy output and metallisation capacity.

Dubbo capex cut strengthens upstream integration

ASM cut Dubbo’s forecast capex by A$900mn to A$740mn. The updated scoping study revised flowsheets for cost and efficiency. The company plans to feed its Korean Metals Plant from Dubbo. It will add titanium, zirconium, hafnium, and niobium products.

Government agencies in the US, Australia, and Canada signalled financing interest. Therefore, Dubbo could accelerate downstream diversification and offset market volatility. Together with current contracts, the platform underpins long-term magnet security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ASM is stitching together a credible mine-to-metal pathway. The Dubbo reset lowers capital intensity as offtake widens. Watch execution at the Korean Metals Plant and the pace of tolling agreements.

China hafnium exports rise despite stricter curbs in 1H 2025

Hafnium

China hafnium exports rose year to date despite tighter controls. Strong aerospace, nuclear, turbine, and semiconductor demand drove resilience. China hafnium exports reached 14,339kg, up 8.5pc on the year. Meanwhile, China hafnium exports remained anchored by US and UK buyers.

Tighter controls whipsaw monthly flows

June shipments plunged as licensing rules tightened further. Exports fell to 264kg, down 84pc year on year. Volumes also dropped 91pc from May’s 2,987kg. Dual-use rules required deeper documentation and new approvals. Several producers waited up to eight weeks for permits.

Aerospace and chips sustain year-to-date strength

US and UK demand underpinned first-half totals. Combined shipments to both markets reached 7,724kg, or 54pc of exports. Downstream users sought hafnium for superalloys and control rods. Semiconductor makers also lifted purchases for advanced lithography components. Supply chains balanced curbs with forward orders and inventory builds.

Export compliance now shapes trade flows more than price. China introduced separate hafnium codes and permit rules in 2023. Buyers must provide detailed end-use and end-user statements. As a result, exporters prioritize predictable customers and audited channels. Market participants expect continued volatility around month-end approvals.

Hafnium’s strategic role raises substitution questions. However, performance demands limit feasible alternatives in superalloys. Gas turbines and jet engines still prefer hafnium-bearing alloys. Therefore, risk management now focuses on diversification and recycling. Contract structures increasingly include licensing contingencies and longer lead times.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The split screen is clear: yearly totals look firm, yet monthly flows swing on permits. Expect intermittent tightness as paperwork bunches and audits intensify. Prudent buyers will secure multi-origin supply and pre-clear licenses.

China’s Antimony Export Restrictions Reshape Global Supply and Prices

Antimony

China’s antimony export restrictions tightened in June, choking overseas flows and straining supply chains. As China’s antimony export restrictions intensified, shipments of metal and trioxide collapsed year on year. The policy shift underscores Beijing’s firmer control over strategic critical minerals.

Exports collapse across products

Antimony metal exports plunged to 20t in June, all to South Korea. A year earlier, flows reached 153t. First-half exports fell 84pc to 267t from 1,720t last year. Meanwhile, antimony trioxide exports slid to 87t in June from 3,228t a year earlier. June volumes went to Egypt, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Policy crackdown sustains price strength

China suspended gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the US in December 2024. The US had taken one-third of China’s trioxide exports in 2023. Beijing then vowed a continued crackdown on smuggling of strategic minerals on 19 July. As a result, European prices held at multi-year highs in Rotterdam. Regulus grade II metal and trioxide grade traded around $58,000-60,000/t duty unpaid. The geographic shift in stocks further tightened access for downstream users.

The supply squeeze reflects new compliance hurdles and tougher licensing reviews. Traders report slower approvals and narrower eligible end uses. Flame retardant and alloy producers face longer lead times and higher working capital. Therefore, buyers diversify toward non-Chinese feedstock where possible. Still, China’s antimony export restrictions remain the defining market driver.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tighter Chinese controls have reset the antimony trade’s risk premium. Prices should stay elevated while enforcement curbs leakages and re-exports. Watch European restocking patterns and US substitution to gauge demand resilience.

Syrah Resumes Graphite Shipments From Balama After Protest Disruptions

Syrah Resources

Syrah resumes graphite shipments ahead of plan after months of protests in Mozambique. The company lifted the December 2024 force majeure. It is loading 10,000t at Nacala for industrial buyers outside China. It plans a large US shipment by late September.

Balama restart and logistics

Balama returned to operation after Syrah reached a farmer agreement. The mine suffered no damage during the protests. Syrah had targeted large shipments in September–December. However, it accelerated the schedule after gaining site access in May. First-quarter sales fell 94% to 1,300t as inventories covered customers.

Implications for the anode supply chain

The restart broadens graphite supply beyond China amid policy uncertainty. Industrial buyers gain an alternative source of natural graphite flakes. EV anode projects in the US benefit from diversified feedstock. Freight through Nacala supports stable exports from northern Mozambique.

Market exposure still requires careful community engagement and security planning. Non-violent protests blocked access in September 2024. Tensions escalated after a disputed election. Effective stakeholder management now underpins Balama reliability.

Syrah resumes graphite shipments as it pivots toward North American demand. The company aims to grow sales outside China in 2025. Execution on logistics and customer qualification remains critical.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Balama’s early restart strengthens non-China graphite options for industrial and battery supply chains. Pricing power now hinges on dependable exports and stable community relations. Watch US intake and customer qualification, which will determine utilization rates this year.

Iluka Raises Zircon Concentrate Production as Tariffs Reshape Demand

Iluka Resource

Iluka raises zircon concentrate production by 118% to 59,900t in January–June. Iluka raises zircon concentrate production to just shy of its 60,000t 2025 target. Iluka raises zircon concentrate production again in July–December with a planned 30,000t, then minimal output in 2026.

Iluka must accelerate zircon sand to hit 165,000t this year. First-half sand output reached 71,800t, below a halfway mark. However, Cataby grades weakened in the period, curbing volumes and raising second-half execution risk.

Tariffs cloud zircon sales, rutile holds steady

Tariff uncertainty now weighs on sales and guidance. US zircon imports face a 10% duty, while South African zircon faces 30% from 1 August. As a result, Iluka withheld detailed third-quarter sales guidance. First-half zircon sales fell 10% to 96,800t, while concentrate sales rose 144% to 61,400t.

Rutile operations proved more stable than zircon. Iluka produced 35,600t of rutile and 113,100t of synthetic rutile in the half. Synthetic rutile rose 19% as the kiln ran at full capacity. Meanwhile, shipments fell on scheduling, not demand, with a ramp expected in July–December. US tariffs exempt rutile, synthetic rutile, and rare earth oxides.

Rare earths pipeline advances: Eneabba, Balranald, Wimmera

Iluka advances its downstream rare earths strategy. Eneabba’s refinery remains slated for 2027, with site works underway and financing pending. Balranald construction has begun, targeting a start in the second half of 2025. Wimmera’s definitive feasibility study progresses, aided by an April pact with RareX for Kenyan feedstock.

Iluka’s mix shifts as market conditions evolve. Concentrate output peaks in 2025 before winding down in 2026. Therefore, delivery now hinges on zircon sand execution and rare earths milestones.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariffs are redistributing zircon trade flows rather than crushing demand. Iluka’s near-term hedge is strong synthetic rutile and a progressing rare earths chain. Watch Cataby grade recovery and Eneabba financing, which will determine 2026–2027 earnings quality.

MMG Raises Copper Concentrate Output on Las Bambas and Khoemacau Gains

MMG

MMG raises copper concentrate output in the first half of 2025. The Minmetals subsidiary posted a 70% year-on-year surge. MMG raises copper concentrate output through stronger runs at Las Bambas and Khoemacau.

Peru and Botswana drive gains

Las Bambas anchored the surge. First-half copper concentrate reached 210,637 tonnes, up 67% year on year. Second-quarter ore grade rose to 0.94% with 94.3% recoveries. Management kept 2025 guidance at 360,000–400,000 tonnes. However, social unrest risks in Peru still linger. Khoemacau contributed 22,043 tonnes after the 2023 acquisition. MMG plans an expansion to 130,000 tonnes a year by 2028. The mine targets 43,000–53,000 tonnes in 2025.

Kinsevere cathode ramps; zinc and lead lag

Kinsevere in the DRC lifted copper cathode output by 19% to 25,425 tonnes. The expansion delivered first cathode in September 2024. Full-year cathode guidance stands at 63,000–69,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, zinc and lead output declined. Dugald River faced fire and floods, while Rosebery grades softened.

MMG raises copper concentrate output as miners chase tight smelter feed. Higher tonnages support treatment circuits across Peru and Botswana. However, execution risk and community issues still require careful scheduling.

Diversified assets spread operational risk across three regions. Yet local disruptions can still compress guidance ranges. Investors will watch the Khoemacau expansion milestones closely.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The step-change at Las Bambas and Khoemacau tightens MMG’s grip on concentrate supply. Watch social stability in Peru and the Khoemacau build for schedule risk. Kinsevere’s cathode ramp adds refined balance, tempering volatility in concentrates.

Jubilee Chrome and PGM Production Rises on Q4 Partnerships

Jubilee PGM

South Africa’s Jubilee chrome and PGM production rose strongly in the April–June quarter. The company leveraged third-party ore partnerships to lift chrome concentrate output. Jubilee chrome and PGM production now tilts toward chrome-driven revenues.

Chrome volumes surge on partnerships

Chrome volumes surged as Jubilee expanded supply partnerships. Q4 chrome concentrate reached 505,578 tonnes, up nearly one fifth year on year. Full-year output rose 25 percent to 1.55 million tonnes. Third-party ore supplied about 70 percent of chrome concentrate production. These agreements underpin scale and reduce feed variability.

PGM output rises, tailings feed grows

PGM output also improved, supported by tailings from chrome processing. Quarterly production climbed 14.6 percent to 8,973 ounces. Full-year PGM output rose 6 percent to 38,579 ounces. Tailings integration enhances recoveries and capital efficiency.

Pricing dynamics shifted earnings sensitivity toward chrome. A one percent chrome price drop needs a 4.5 percent platinum price rise to offset. In Q4, chrome prices fell 11.4 percent, but platinum rose 33 percent. Therefore, stronger platinum partly cushioned chrome weakness. Jubilee chrome and PGM production remains exposed to both markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s partnership model accelerates growth with limited capital. However, portfolio risk now concentrates around chrome price cycles and third-party feed security. Securing long-term ore and hedging exposures would stabilize cash flow through volatile PGM and chrome swings.