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| China Steel |
China unveiled the China steel stabilisation plan for 2025–26 to steady industry growth. The China steel stabilisation plan targets about 4% added value growth and bans new capacity. Regulators will curb unfair competition and retire inefficient production.
Market signals after the announcement
Chinese rebar futures rose, and mills lifted ex-works prices modestly. However, spot trading remained slow despite firmer sentiment. Seaborne iron ore held steady as daily pig iron output rose to about 2.41mn t/d. Meanwhile, coking coal futures ended little changed, as participants assessed policy impact.
Policymakers will tighten control of capacity and output to balance supply and demand. As a result, weaker producers should exit through market-based mechanisms. Authorities also promised investment to upgrade technology and accelerate the green energy transition. The plan seeks more high-grade steel through innovation and process improvements.
China’s near-term production trend remains soft. August crude steel output fell 0.7% year on year to 77.36mn t. January–August output declined 2.8% to 671.81mn t amid weak construction demand. In 2024, the top five provinces’ output fell 3.2% to 522.73mn t, or 52% of national totals. Earlier guidance from Beijing urged an orderly exit of outdated capacity, echoing past supply-side reforms.
The Metalnomist Commentary
The China steel stabilisation plan reasserts capacity discipline while nudging mills toward higher-grade, lower-emission output. Watch provincial enforcement, financing for upgrades, and raw-material pass-throughs to gauge durability. Short-term price firmness may fade if end-use demand fails to improve.
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