Century Aluminum Mt Holly Smelter Expansion Lifts US Primary Aluminum Output

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter production has begun from the company’s expansion project in South Carolina, adding new domestic primary aluminum capacity at a time when US trade policy is reshaping metal supply economics. The company expects the expansion to reach full production by the end of June 2026.

The expanded Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter is expected to reach nameplate capacity of 229,000 t/yr. Century said the additional output will increase total US primary aluminum production by 10%.

Century Aluminum Mt Holly smelter output matters because the US has been trying to rebuild domestic primary aluminum supply after years of capacity pressure. Higher tariffs, energy costs and import dependence have made aluminum smelting a strategic industrial issue.

Section 232 Tariff Supports Domestic Aluminum Expansion

Century’s expansion follows the implementation of the 50% Section 232 aluminum tariff in June 2025. The tariff has improved the incentive structure for domestic primary aluminum production by raising the cost of imported material.

Primary aluminum smelting is highly energy-intensive, so producers need a combination of power competitiveness, policy support and long-term demand visibility. The Mt Holly expansion shows that tariff protection can influence production decisions when capacity is already available for restart or expansion.

The added output will not remove US import dependence. However, a 10% increase in domestic primary aluminum production is meaningful in a market where every operating smelter carries strategic value.

Domestic aluminum is important for packaging, transportation, construction, defense, electrical infrastructure and manufacturing. Greater local supply can reduce exposure to import volatility and support downstream users seeking more secure metal availability.

Century Extends US Aluminum Strategy With Oklahoma Project

Century is also pursuing a larger domestic growth strategy beyond Mt Holly. The company has teamed up with Emirates Global Aluminum to build a planned 750,000 t/yr primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma.

That project would represent a much larger change to US aluminum supply if completed. It would add major greenfield smelting capacity and strengthen the country’s ability to supply downstream manufacturing from domestic primary metal.

The two projects show how US aluminum policy is moving from import management toward capacity rebuilding. Mt Holly provides a near-term production increase, while Oklahoma represents a longer-term industrial supply-chain bet.

For the US market, the key question is whether tariff protection, energy availability and industrial demand can support sustained investment in smelting. Without competitive power and stable policy, primary aluminum capacity remains difficult to maintain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s Mt Holly expansion shows that tariff policy is beginning to translate into real domestic aluminum output. The bigger test will be whether the US can turn short-term protection into long-term smelting competitiveness through power access, investment and downstream demand.

Fagor Ederlan Expands with Majority Stake in US Aluminum Producer

Fagor Ederlan

Strategic Move into Secondary Aluminum

Spanish automotive component producer Fagor Ederlan has acquired 51pc of US-based Regen Aluminum, strengthening its presence in North America. The acquisition aligns with Fagor’s sustainability strategy while boosting service capabilities for automotive and industrial customers across the region. As part of the deal, Regen Aluminum will be renamed Fagor Regen Aluminum, reflecting its integration into the parent group.

Regen Aluminum specializes in producing recycled aluminum ingots for automotive, aerospace, and electrical applications. The company has an annual production capacity of 5mn ingots, offering a reliable supply of low-carbon materials to customers. By leveraging Regen’s expertise, Fagor Ederlan enhances its ability to deliver sustainable solutions within the global aluminum supply chain.

Secondary Aluminum’s Role in Sustainability

The production of secondary aluminum significantly reduces carbon emissions, cutting the footprint by more than 90pc compared with primary aluminum. Therefore, this acquisition positions Fagor Ederlan as a stronger player in sustainable metals, a key priority for industries navigating decarbonization goals.

Fagor already operates facilities in Europe, China, and the Americas, and this move reinforces its global strategy. While financial details were not disclosed, the deal highlights the increasing strategic importance of secondary aluminum in global supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fagor’s acquisition of Regen Aluminum underscores a growing trend: automakers and component producers are moving upstream into recycling to secure sustainable supply. As secondary aluminum gains traction, this deal signals how European firms are positioning to meet both regulatory and market-driven decarbonization demands in North America.

EGA to Acquire Majority Stake in US-based Spectro Alloys, Expanding Into Secondary Aluminum Market

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the UAE's primary aluminum producer, is set to acquire an 80% stake in Spectro Alloys, a Minnesota-based secondary aluminum smelter. This move marks a strategic expansion into the U.S. market, bolstering EGA’s presence in a region that accounted for over a quarter of its global aluminum sales in 2023, equating to 550,000 metric tonnes.

The acquisition of Spectro Alloys will significantly enhance EGA's capabilities in the secondary aluminum sector, which involves the production of aluminum primarily from recycled scrap. This market is poised for substantial growth, with estimates suggesting that recycled aluminum will drive 60% of global aluminum supply growth by 2030, increasing to 70% between 2030 and 2040.

This latest acquisition aligns with EGA’s broader strategy to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable aluminum. In May, EGA acquired German specialty foundry Leichtmetall, which has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tonnes. Additionally, EGA is constructing a recycling plant in the UAE, set to produce 170,000 tonnes of aluminum billets annually from both pre- and post-consumer scrap.

Spectro Alloys, with its current production capacity of 110,000 tonnes of aluminum ingots per year, is also expanding. The company began construction in March on an expansion project that will add 55,000 tonnes of billet production capacity in its first phase.

The transaction, pending regulatory approval, is expected to be finalized this quarter. Financial details of the deal have not been disclosed.

Century Hawesville Aluminum Smelter Sale Signals a Shift From Metal to Data Infrastructure

Century Aluminum

The Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale marks a major shift in industrial land use in the United States. Century Aluminum sold its Hawesville, Kentucky, site to TeraWulf for $200mn. The property will be redeveloped into a digital infrastructure campus. As a result, the Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale highlights a broader contest between heavy industry and AI data center infrastructure.

This transaction matters because Hawesville was not a minor industrial asset. The site includes Century’s largest aluminum smelter with 250,000 metric tonnes per year of capacity. Although the smelter has been idled since 2022, it remained a significant piece of dormant US aluminum capacity. Therefore, the Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale removes a potential restart option from the domestic primary aluminum story.

The timing also adds strategic weight. Century had previously discussed the possibility of restarting the smelter as aluminum prices rose and global shortages persisted. However, the new sale changes that path completely. Consequently, the Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale suggests that digital infrastructure value now exceeds the optional value of restarting some idled metal assets.

Hawesville Data Center Campus Reflects a New Industrial Priority

The Hawesville data center campus shows how quickly industrial priorities are changing. TeraWulf plans to redevelop the site into a high-performance computing and artificial intelligence data center complex. That means a former energy-intensive metal site will now support another type of energy-intensive industry. As a result, the Hawesville data center campus reflects the growing pull of AI infrastructure across US industrial real estate.

This shift is not only symbolic. Smelter sites already offer large industrial footprints, transmission access, and utility infrastructure. Those features can also make them attractive for data center development. Therefore, idled metals facilities may increasingly face competition from digital infrastructure buyers rather than industrial restart plans.

That creates a larger strategic question for manufacturing policy. The United States wants more domestic metals capacity, especially in energy-intensive sectors like aluminum. However, AI infrastructure is also drawing land, power, and capital into new uses. Meanwhile, both sectors depend on long-term electricity access and industrial-scale sites.

US Aluminum Capacity Loses Optionality as AI Infrastructure Gains Ground

US aluminum capacity does not shrink immediately because Hawesville was already idled. However, the sale changes the future option value of that capacity. Once the site is converted into a data infrastructure campus, the path back to primary aluminum production becomes far less likely. Therefore, the Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale matters as a loss of industrial optionality.

This is especially relevant in a market where aluminum supply security still matters. Century had previously pointed to stronger aluminum prices and continued global shortages when discussing a possible restart. That indicates the smelter still had strategic relevance, even if it was not operating. As a result, the sale suggests market signals alone were not enough to bring the asset back.

The broader lesson is clear. Industrial competition is no longer only between global metal producers. It is also between different domestic sectors competing for the same power, land, and infrastructure. Consequently, the Century Hawesville aluminum smelter sale may become an example of how AI expansion reshapes the future of legacy industrial assets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal is about more than one idled smelter. It shows that in today’s market, dormant industrial capacity can be worth more as digital infrastructure than as future metal production. That trend could become a bigger issue if the US wants to rebuild primary materials capacity while AI keeps absorbing premium industrial sites.

Impact of Rebate Repeal on China's Aluminum Exports

China Aluminum

In November, China saw a significant spike in aluminum exports, triggered by the government's sudden cancellation of a 13% export tax rebate on aluminum fabricated products. According to data from China's General Administrator of Customs, the country exported a hefty 669,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. This figure marks a 37% increase compared to November last year and a 16% rise from the previous month of October.

Surge in Exports Due to Policy Change

The announcement on November 15 to end the rebate, effective December 1, propelled exporters to accelerate their shipments. This strategic move was aimed at maximizing profits before the new policy rendered some exporting activities unprofitable. The abrupt policy change prompted a rush among manufacturers and exporters to push out as much product as possible within the short window, significantly influencing trade flows.

Future Outlook: A Sharp Decline Expected

Market analysts predict a steep decline in China's aluminum exports starting December. Without the financial cushion of the export tax rebate, the cost dynamics of exporting aluminum products from China are expected to shift dramatically, potentially slowing down the country's aluminum export momentum. This anticipated drop will likely reshape global aluminum supply chains and could affect global aluminum prices.

Rio Tinto Hydropower Investment of $1.2 Billion Secures Low-Carbon Aluminum Future

Rio tinto Aluminium

Rio Tinto hydropower investment reaches $1.2 billion for modernizing the Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Quebec, Canada. The massive Rio Tinto hydropower upgrade represents the mining giant's largest investment in hydroelectric assets since the 1950s, targeting sustainable aluminum production at its Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations through 2032.

Comprehensive Modernization Enhances Production Capacity

Rio Tinto hydropower modernization encompasses extensive infrastructure improvements across multiple facility components. The project will replace electrical and mechanical equipment throughout the Isle-Maligne plant while constructing facility extensions and new mechanical workshops. Additionally, engineers will improve water intake systems and hydraulic passages to optimize power generation efficiency.

Meanwhile, the upgrade includes critical spillway modifications enabling year-round operations during Canadian winter conditions. These enhancements ensure continuous power supply for aluminum smelting operations regardless of seasonal weather challenges. The comprehensive scope demonstrates Rio Tinto's commitment to long-term operational reliability in Quebec's challenging climate.

Strategic Investment Supports Integrated Aluminum Operations

However, the Isle-Maligne facility serves as a cornerstone for Rio Tinto's extensive Quebec aluminum infrastructure. The Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations include one alumina refinery, five wholly owned aluminum smelters, and six hydropower plants. These integrated facilities account for nearly half of Rio Tinto's global aluminum output, making reliable power generation essential.

Therefore, the modernization project directly impacts Rio Tinto's competitive position in North American aluminum markets. Sebastien Ross, Rio Tinto Aluminium's managing director for Atlantic operations, emphasized that the investment ensures long-term competitiveness for Canadian and American customers. The low-carbon aluminum production capability provides significant marketing advantages in environmentally conscious markets.

Decades-Long Commitment to Sustainable Metal Production

Furthermore, the $1.2 billion investment timeline extends through 2032, demonstrating Rio Tinto's long-term commitment to Quebec operations. The hydroelectric power source enables low-carbon aluminum production, aligning with global sustainability trends and regulatory requirements. This positioning strengthens Rio Tinto's market differentiation in premium aluminum segments.

As a result, the modernization project reinforces Quebec's role as a strategic aluminum production hub for North American markets. The combination of abundant hydroelectric resources, existing infrastructure, and skilled workforce creates competitive advantages that justify substantial capital investment in facility upgrades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto's $1.2 billion hydropower investment exemplifies how integrated mining companies leverage renewable energy assets to maintain competitive advantages in commodity markets. The project's scale and timeline demonstrate the capital intensity required to modernize aging industrial infrastructure while positioning aluminum operations for decades of low-carbon production in increasingly sustainability-focused markets.

Record-Breaking Global Aluminum Production in December

International Aluminium

Surge in Global Aluminum Output Marks a New Record

Robust Production Growth Driven by Chinese Output

Global aluminum production hit a new high in December, driven primarily by increased production levels in China, which saw no power restrictions affecting its output. The total global output for the month reached 6.24 million tonnes, marking a 3.02% increase from the previous year.

Regional Contributions to Global Aluminum Production

Notable increases were also observed in Western Europe and Russia, with significant gains of 7.36% and 4.05% respectively. While North American production remained stable, slight gains were seen in South America and other Asian regions excluding China.

Varied Performance Across Different Regions

Despite the overall increase, production in Oceania saw a decrease of 3.09%, highlighting the diverse industrial conditions across different regions. The Middle East and Africa, however, showed modest increases, contributing to the global production figures.

EGA Aluminum Plant Investment of $4 Billion Transforms US Production Landscape

EGA Aluminum Ingot

EGA aluminum plant investment reaches $4 billion for a new primary aluminum production facility in Oklahoma, targeting 2030 startup. The massive EGA aluminum plant will produce up to 600,000 metric tonnes annually, nearly doubling US aluminum production capacity as the country produced only 670,000 tonnes in 2024 according to the US Geological Survey.

Strategic Timing Leverages US Trade Protection Measures

EGA aluminum plant development benefits from favorable US trade policies including the current 25% tariff on aluminum imports. This protective measure creates significant cost advantages for domestic production compared to foreign competitors. The timing aligns perfectly with American reshoring initiatives and critical materials supply chain security priorities.

Meanwhile, EGA expects construction to commence by late 2026, pending completion of feasibility studies and long-term power supply contract negotiations. Tax credit arrangements represent another crucial component of the project's financial structure, demonstrating the importance of government incentives for large-scale industrial investments in the current economic environment.

UAE Company Expands North American Footprint

However, Emirates Global Aluminium brings substantial international expertise to the US aluminum market through its global production portfolio. The company owns primary and secondary aluminum projects worldwide, including Minnesota-based Spectro Alloys acquired through a majority stake purchase in August 2024. This existing US presence provides operational knowledge for the Oklahoma facility development.

Therefore, EGA's investment strategy demonstrates confidence in long-term US aluminum demand growth across automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. The 600,000-tonne annual capacity represents nearly 90% of current total US aluminum production, highlighting the transformative scale of this single project for domestic supply chains.

Presidential Announcement Signals Strategic Partnership

Furthermore, President Trump announced EGA's planned investment during his Abu Dhabi visit this week alongside $200 billion in other commercial agreements. This high-profile endorsement underscores the strategic importance of UAE-US economic cooperation in critical materials sectors. The announcement timing suggests coordinated efforts to strengthen bilateral trade relationships.

As a result, the Oklahoma facility positions EGA to capture growing North American aluminum demand while reducing US import dependence. The project's scale and timeline align with infrastructure modernization requirements and defense industry priorities that demand reliable domestic aluminum supplies for national security applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA's $4 billion Oklahoma investment exemplifies how international aluminum producers capitalize on US trade protection and reshoring trends to establish strategic manufacturing footholds. The project's potential to nearly double US aluminum production capacity demonstrates the scale of investment required to meaningfully impact critical materials supply chain resilience in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

CBA Forecasts Higher Aluminum Sales Despite Production Cuts in 2025

cba

Brazilian aluminum producer CBA projects increased aluminum sales for 2025, targeting 500,000 metric tonnes despite planned production reductions in the coming months. The company anticipates stronger demand from construction, energy, and automotive sectors will drive sales growth, even as scheduled refinery maintenance temporarily constrains output capacity.

Production Challenges and Market Strategy

CBA expects aluminum production to decline significantly during the second quarter due to planned refinery maintenance, cutting output to 80,000 tonnes. However, the company projects production will recover to 90,000 tonnes by the end of the third quarter as maintenance activities conclude. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize between $2,350-$2,400 per tonne throughout the forecast period.

The company's first quarter performance showed mixed results across different product segments. Primary aluminum segment sales decreased by 7% to 61,000 tonnes, down from 66,000 tonnes in the prior year, primarily due to reduced billet sales. Conversely, recycled aluminum sales surged 19% to 26,000 tonnes, compared to 20,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

Export Dynamics and Global Market Influences

CBA's export strategy has shifted significantly, with exports representing only 4% of shipments in the first quarter, down from 10% in the previous year. This reduction reflects changing market dynamics and the company's focus on domestic demand. Therefore, CBA concentrates on serving Brazilian markets while maintaining selective international presence.

Global scrap market conditions increasingly influence CBA's operational decisions and cost structure. The company considers adjusting scrap usage patterns as higher US demand, driven by tariff exemptions, has elevated scrap prices worldwide. As a result, these market dynamics require strategic planning to maintain competitive pricing while securing adequate raw material supplies.

However, CBA remains optimistic about aluminum demand prospects across key industrial sectors. The construction, energy, and automotive industries show promising growth trajectories that support the company's ambitious sales targets for 2025.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBA's strategic approach demonstrates the complex balance between production constraints and market opportunities in the global aluminum industry. The company's ability to increase sales despite lower output reflects strong domestic demand and efficient capacity utilization, positioning CBA to capitalize on Brazil's growing industrial aluminum consumption.

Ball Corporation Anticipates Strong Aluminum Can Shipment Growth in 2025

Ball Corporation

Rebound in North American and Global Markets Expected as Demand for Sustainable Packaging Rises

Ball Corporation, a leading aluminum packaging firm, is expecting a significant rebound in aluminum can shipments in 2025, projecting growth rates between 2-3%. This follows a 2024 performance that fell short of their target, where global aluminum shipment volumes increased by just 1%, below their 2% growth target. Despite this, the company is optimistic that demand will rise due to various factors, including sustainability trends and strategic expansions.

North American Market Outlook

In North America, beverage can volumes, which accounted for 43% of Ball's revenues in 2023, saw a decline in 2024. A weaker beer market and financial challenges facing end consumers impeded volume growth. However, Ball expects a recovery in 2025, driven by increased demand and new investments. To meet this growth, Ball acquired Florida Can Manufacturing and its Winter Haven, Florida, plant in February 2024. Additionally, the company plans to build a two-line can plant in Oregon to service the northwest U.S., reducing the need for cross-country shipments. These expansions will help Ball increase its production capacity and capitalize on the rebound in demand.

Ball's growth projections in North America are contingent on the U.S. government not imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly at the 25% rate previously proposed by former President Donald Trump. Ball is concerned that such tariffs would increase costs for customers, ultimately leading to reduced consumer demand.

Global Market Expectations

Globally, Ball's EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) segment saw slight growth in 2024. Cans have gained popularity in Europe as sustainability laws have encouraged customers to shift from glass to aluminum packaging. Ball forecasts a steady 3-5% annual growth in the European aluminum can market through at least 2028, underscoring its optimism about the region's continued demand for sustainable packaging solutions.

In South America, Ball saw mixed results. While beverage can volumes in Brazil grew by 1% in 2024, slower growth was attributed to tight supply conditions. However, Ball expects stronger growth in 2025, with projections of 2-4% growth in Brazil, 4-6% in Chile, and more than 10% in Paraguay compared to 2024.

Financial Performance and Future Plans

Despite a slight drop in full-year revenue, from $12.1 billion in 2023 to $11.8 billion in 2024, Ball's profit surged significantly. Profit quadrupled to $4.01 billion, compared to $707 million in 2023. This improvement highlights the company's resilience and its capacity to adjust to market challenges.

In conclusion, Ball Corporation is strategically positioning itself for growth in 2025 and beyond. With expanded capacity in North America, increased demand for sustainable packaging in Europe, and positive expectations in South America, the company is set to meet the challenges and opportunities of the global aluminum can market.

May sets a new monthly high for global aluminum production

aluminum

In May, global aluminum production reached a new monthly record, driven largely by continued increases in China, where recent heavy rains in Yunnan province restored hydropower capacities, allowing the lifting of previous power restrictions.

According to International Aluminium, the worldwide production of aluminum surged to 6.13 million tons in May, marking a 3.44 percent increase year-over-year. Daily production also saw a rise to 197,900 tons per day, up from the 196,900 tons per day reported in April.

In China, aluminum production jumped nearly 5 percent from last year to 3.65 million tons, approaching the record levels seen in October. Yunnan’s aluminum facilities, previously offline, are now operational again.

Hydropower generation in China has increased by 8.4 percent in the first four months of the year, spurred by heavy and record-breaking rainfall in Guangdong province, enhancing the water supply for hydropower in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.

Production gains were also noted in other parts of the world. North America’s output rose nearly 3 percent to 338,000 tons, while Western Europe experienced a more than 3 percent increase to 236,000 tons, driven by increased activity at Trimet’s aluminum smelting operations in Germany and France.

Elsewhere in Asia (excluding China), aluminum production rose nearly 3 percent to 407,000 tons in April. South American output saw a significant increase of nearly 6 percent to 129,000 tons.

Production in Russia and Eastern Europe grew by approximately 2.35 percent to 348,000 tons, and output in Australasia was up nearly 2 percent to 163,000 tons.

However, production dipped slightly in the Middle East by less than 1 percent to 525,000 tons, and in Africa, it fell by over 5 percent to 129,000 tons.

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange were notably volatile throughout May, fluctuating between a low of $2,530 per ton on May 8 and a high of $2,741 per ton on May 29, with prices moving erratically between those dates. Prices have trended downward in June, settling around $2,500 per ton so far.

Glencore Aluminum Recycling Stake Expands South Carolina Remelting Footprint

Aluminum Scrap

Glencore aluminum recycling exposure has expanded after the global commodities trading group acquired a 45% stake in a planned South Carolina aluminum facility. Alumicore will operate the plant and retain the remaining 55% interest.

The investment builds on Glencore’s earlier financial support for the recycling and remelting project. Those earlier investments were aimed at securing marketing rights for the plant’s future production.

Glencore aluminum recycling growth reflects rising interest in secondary aluminum supply in the US. Recycled aluminum can reduce energy intensity, support lower-carbon material demand, and improve feedstock optionality for manufacturers exposed to volatile primary aluminum markets.

Alumicore Platform Adds Recycling and Remelting Scale

The South Carolina site will become part of Alumicore’s wider recycling network. Glencore said the new plant, together with Alumicore’s operations in Monessen and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, will lift the company’s total recycling capacity to more than 120,000 t/yr.

Few details were disclosed about the planned facility near Charleston. However, the project appears focused on recycling and remelting, which are increasingly important parts of the North American aluminum value chain.

Aluminum remelting capacity gives processors a route to convert scrap into reusable material for downstream manufacturing. This is strategically relevant as automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial customers look for lower-carbon aluminum inputs.

The marketing-rights element is also important. Glencore is not only taking an equity position; it is strengthening access to future metal flows from the facility. That fits the trading house’s broader strategy of combining physical assets, offtake control and scrap supply channels.

Charleston Area Becomes a Secondary Aluminum Growth Point

The deal also deepens Glencore’s footprint in South Carolina. The company previously entered a joint venture with nonferrous scrap recycler Zeb Metals in 2023 to develop an aluminum scrap and dross recycling operation around Charleston.

That earlier project and the Alumicore investment point to a regional strategy. Charleston offers logistics advantages, industrial demand access and a potential platform for collecting, processing and marketing secondary aluminum products.

Aluminum dross and scrap recycling are becoming more valuable as producers and traders try to capture more metal units from waste streams. Better recovery can reduce reliance on primary aluminum and support circular supply for domestic manufacturers.

For Glencore, the South Carolina investment strengthens its position in a market where recycled metal is becoming more strategic. For Alumicore, Glencore’s stake adds a global marketing partner with deep metals trading and supply-chain reach.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s investment shows that aluminum recycling is becoming a strategic materials business, not only a scrap trade. Control over remelting capacity, dross recovery and marketing rights will matter more as customers seek lower-carbon aluminum supply.

Constellium Hikes U.S. Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices Amid Tariff Pressures

Constellium

Price increase aligns with surging Midwest premium and looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports

Constellium Raises Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices by 15¢/lb

Constellium, a leading French aluminum producer, has increased the price of all flat rolled aluminum products shipped to the U.S. market. The price hike, effective immediately, amounts to a minimum of 15 cents per pound. The company did not disclose specific reasons for the adjustment and has yet to comment publicly on the decision.

This move follows a tightening North American aluminum supply landscape. Market participants suggest that uncertainty surrounding upcoming U.S. aluminum tariffs could be influencing upstream price adjustments. Constellium’s action signals a broader trend as producers seek to mitigate anticipated cost pressures.

U.S. Tariff Expectations Drive Midwest Premium Surge

The timing of Constellium’s increase coincides with a sharp rise in the Midwest premium — the delivered price of P1020 aluminum in U.S. Midwest warehouses. This benchmark has approached its highest level since June 2022, reflecting mounting concerns over supply constraints.

Market speculation centers on proposed dual 25% tariffs targeting Canadian-sourced aluminum. These tariffs, expected to be enforced in early March, could significantly impact U.S. import flows. Canada remains one of the United States' primary aluminum suppliers, making the policy shift especially disruptive for domestic buyers.

If enacted, the tariffs would apply both at a regional level and across Canada nationally, pushing buyers to seek alternative supply chains. As a result, buyers are accelerating purchases ahead of the tariff rollout — further pressuring prices.

Outlook for U.S. Aluminum Buyers Grows More Complex

Constellium’s decision to raise prices reflects broader volatility in the aluminum value chain. Without clear guidance from the company, market watchers tie the move to shifting trade dynamics and rising input costs. As flat rolled aluminum remains essential across construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, downstream manufacturers may soon face pass-through cost increases.

Industry players now closely monitor both U.S. policy announcements and global aluminum price signals. Strategic sourcing and contract adjustments will be critical as the market braces for a turbulent second quarter.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline Slightly in October

US Aluminum

US imports of unwrought aluminum decreased in October 2024 compared to the same period last year, with notable reductions from South Africa and Qatar.

Marginal Decline in October Imports

The United States imported 355,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum under harmonized tariff code 7601 in October 2024, a slight decrease from 362,000 tonnes in October 2023, according to US customs data. This reflects the ongoing adjustments in the global aluminum supply chain.

Major Shifts Among Key Suppliers

• South Africa, the fourth-largest supplier, experienced a significant drop, with shipments halving to 14,000 tonnes from 27,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Qatar’s aluminum exports to the US plummeted by 11,000 tonnes to a modest 4,000 tonnes.
• In contrast, India saw the largest year-over-year increase, sending 20,000 tonnes, up by 17,000 tonnes.
• Canada, the leading supplier of US aluminum, accounted for approximately 68% of total imports, delivering 241,000 tonnes in October—an increase of 7,000 tonnes from the previous year.

Year-to-Date Trends

From January to October 2024, total US imports of unwrought aluminum reached 3.34 million tonnes, marking a 5.3% decline compared to 3.53 million tonnes during the same period in 2023.

• Australia registered the sharpest contraction, with exports narrowing to 60,000 tonnes, down from 199,000 tonnes.
• UAE shipments also decreased significantly, totaling 382,000 tonnes, down from 479,000 tonnes a year earlier.
• Canada bucked the trend with a year-to-date increase, supplying 2.3 million tonnes, up from 2.2 million tonnes.

Global Market Implications

The shifts in US aluminum imports highlight changing dynamics in global trade and production capacities. Canada’s dominant position reflects its proximity and trade agreements, while reductions from South Africa and Qatar underscore broader supply challenges. India’s surge in exports signals its growing role in meeting US demand, likely supported by competitive pricing and capacity expansions.

Novelis to Close Two US Aluminum Facilities Amid Strategic Portfolio Consolidation

Novelis

Novelis Shutters Richmond and Fairmont Plants, Affecting Over 250 Jobs

US-based aluminum rolling giant Novelis will close two of its aluminum facilities in the US as part of a broader portfolio consolidation. The Richmond, Virginia, plant will cease operations by May 30, while the Fairmont, West Virginia, site will shut down by June 30, according to a company spokesperson. The closures will affect more than 250 workers, as indicated in Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filings.

The Richmond site produces aluminum rolled sheet used primarily in the building and construction sector. Meanwhile, the Fairmont plant supplies sheet and light gauge fin/foil products to both domestic and international markets. Novelis has not yet disclosed where the affected production volumes may be redirected.

Uncertainty Over Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Adjustments

While Novelis did not attribute the closures directly to tariffs, the decision follows recent trade policy changes. The US Commerce Department in March added canned beer and empty aluminum cans to the list of aluminum products now subject to a 25% tariff. This expansion of aluminum trade restrictions has stirred concerns within the US packaging and metals industries.

The company has also declined to clarify whether production will shift to other US sites or move abroad. Analysts are closely monitoring whether this consolidation signals deeper shifts in Novelis' US manufacturing footprint or its evolving supply chain strategy.

Broader Implications for the US Aluminum Sector

These closures come amid heightened scrutiny of global aluminum trade flows, particularly involving Chinese overcapacity and retaliatory trade measures. As US-based firms reevaluate production economics, facility consolidation may become more common.

The aluminum rolling industry is capital-intensive, and margin pressures from construction and packaging demand fluctuations are significant. Novelis’ action could be a harbinger of a reshuffling of North American flat-rolled capacity in response to policy, demand, and cost headwinds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Novelis’ consolidation reflects deeper tensions in the aluminum sector, balancing plant economics, demand variability, and trade pressures. As the US doubles down on tariffs, manufacturers face growing challenges in justifying capacity retention. The next moves from Novelis—and its rivals—will likely shape the trajectory of rolled aluminum supply in North America.

European Aluminum CBAM Flaws Warning Highlights Competitiveness Risks

European Aluminum CBAM

European Aluminum CBAM flaws emerged as critical concerns as the industry association warned that the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism threatens bloc competitiveness ahead of tomorrow's European Parliament vote. The European Aluminum CBAM flaws assessment, conducted by Ramboll Management Consulting, identifies three fundamental design issues that could actively harm Europe's aluminum industry while providing unfair advantages to importers who avoid carbon costs across their full value chains.

Scrap Content Verification Creates Competitive Disadvantages

European Aluminum CBAM flaws include significant challenges in accurately verifying scrap content within aluminum products imported into the EU. The difficulty in verification enables importers to over-declare scrap content, avoiding carbon costs while redirecting higher scrap content products toward EU markets for financial incentives. This manipulation provides importers substantial advantages over EU producers who face carbon costs across their complete value chain operations.

Meanwhile, Ramboll recommends assigning default values to all imported primary and secondary metal to eliminate domestic disadvantages. This approach would prevent gaming of scrap content declarations while ensuring competitive parity between domestic and imported aluminum products. The current verification system's inadequacy undermines CBAM's intended purpose of leveling competitive playing fields.

Aluminum scrap

Alumina Inclusion Could Drastically Increase EU Costs

However, the study argues that adding aluminum feedstock alumina to CBAM parameters could raise EU alumina costs by 12-16% by 2030, escalating to 24% by 2034. These cost increases would severely impact European aluminum smelter competitiveness while potentially driving production offshore. Ramboll recommends excluding alumina from CBAM until comprehensive downstream sector coverage ensures balanced implementation.

Therefore, the report suggests creating dedicated emissions trading scheme benchmarks for alumina rather than incorporating it directly into CBAM mechanisms. This alternative approach would address carbon leakage concerns without imposing excessive cost burdens on European aluminum producers. The timing of alumina inclusion requires careful coordination with broader CBAM implementation phases.

Indirect Emissions Scope Expansion Presents Implementation Challenges

Furthermore, expanding CBAM beyond direct scope 1 emissions to include indirect scope 2 and 3 emissions would significantly increase CBAM fees and European aluminum costs. European producers face indirect carbon costs through electricity pricing that don't correlate with their actual emissions profiles. Third-country producers avoid equivalent carbon costs while CBAM lacks verification mechanisms for electricity-related emissions.

As a result, European Aluminum director general Paul Voss urged immediate CBAM implementation pause for aluminum until design flaws receive correction and competitiveness impacts undergo proper assessment. The association demands potential aluminum removal from CBAM scope if ongoing reviews demonstrate continued harm rather than protection. Alternative carbon leakage protection measures may require extension beyond 2030 if CBAM proves ineffective.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Aluminum association's CBAM critique highlights fundamental tensions between climate policy objectives and industrial competitiveness, demonstrating how well-intentioned carbon border mechanisms can inadvertently disadvantage domestic producers they aim to protect. The complexity of aluminum value chains, from alumina feedstock through scrap recycling, creates verification challenges that sophisticated importers can exploit, undermining CBAM's core premise of ensuring fair competition while driving global decarbonization.

Century Aluminum Output Set to Dip in 2026 as Smelter Restarts Reshape Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum output is expected to decline slightly in 2026 as the company balances reduced Icelandic production with a restart of idled capacity in South Carolina. The outlook shows how primary aluminum supply remains sensitive to potline reliability, power infrastructure, and restart timing.

The US-based producer expects to ship 630,000t of primary aluminum in 2026, down 2.6pc from 647,112t in 2025. Shipments also fell 5pc in 2025 from the previous year, reflecting operational disruption and uneven production across the company’s smelter network.

Century Aluminum output was affected by an electrical equipment failure at its Nordural smelter in Iceland on 21 October. The incident stopped production at one of the site’s two potlines. The company expects to restart the second potline by the end of April and return close to full production by the end of July.

Iceland Disruption Weighs on Primary Aluminum Shipments

Nordural is expected to produce 215,000t of aluminum in 2026, down 21.8pc from 275,000t in 2025. This decline will be the main drag on Century Aluminum output, even as the company works to restore production during the first half of the year.

The disruption highlights the importance of electrical reliability in primary aluminum production. Smelters depend on continuous power and stable potline operations. Any equipment failure can reduce output quickly because aluminum smelting is capital-intensive, energy-intensive, and difficult to interrupt without operational consequences.

Fourth-quarter production already reflected that pressure. Century’s total aluminum production fell 15.9pc year on year to 140,257t in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the company benefited from stronger aluminum prices as the LME three-month settlement rose 16.8pc during 2025 to $2,989/t.

Mt Holly Restart Supports US Aluminum Capacity Strategy

The Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina will partially offset the Icelandic decline. Century plans to restart more than 50,000t of idled production beginning in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter. The site is expected to produce 200,000t in 2026, up 28.2pc from 156,000t in 2025.

This restart matters for US aluminum capacity because domestic primary aluminum supply remains strategically important for industrial resilience. Once the Nordural and Mt Holly projects are completed, Century expects average production capacity closer to 750,000 t/yr. That would improve the company’s supply position if execution remains on schedule.

Century is also positioning itself for longer-term US growth. The company confirmed that its $500mn US Department of Energy grant will support its joint development project with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the sale of its idled Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data center infrastructure developer TeraWulf reflects a shift in how legacy industrial power assets are being redeployed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s 2026 outlook shows that aluminum supply strategy is no longer only about price recovery. It is increasingly about power security, restart discipline, and whether the US can rebuild competitive primary smelting capacity.

Alcoa Maintains 2024 Guidance as Third-Quarter Production and Revenue Climb

Alcoa

Alcoa Corporation, a leading U.S.-based integrated aluminum producer, upheld its 2024 production guidance for alumina and aluminum despite achieving increased quarterly production and revenue in Q3. The company continues to project aluminum production at 2.2-2.3 million metric tonnes (t) and alumina output at 9.8-10 million t, unchanged from prior estimates.

Third-Quarter Highlights

Aluminum production grew 5% year-over-year, reaching 559,000 t in Q3 2024 compared to 532,000 t in the same period last year. Aluminum shipments also rose slightly to 638,000 t from 630,000 t. Meanwhile, bauxite production declined to 9.4 million dry metric tonnes (dmt) from 10.7 million dmt a year ago. Alumina output decreased to 2.435 million t, down from 2.805 million t, with shipments falling to 2.052 million t.

Revenue and Market Dynamics

Alcoa’s Q3 revenue rose nearly 12% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina prices, which averaged $485/t compared to $354/t in Q3 2023. Aluminum prices also increased to $2,877/t, up from $2,647/t a year earlier. Third-party aluminum sales rose approximately 10% to $1.8 billion. Improved alumina pricing and lower raw material costs helped narrow segment losses to $11 million from $15 million in the same period last year.

The company posted $90 million in profits, a significant improvement from the $168 million loss reported in Q3 2023.

Strategic Developments

Alcoa raised its annual shipment forecast by 200,000 t to 12.9-13.1 million t, reflecting increased trading volumes. However, a wider spread between production and shipments emerged due to external sourcing of alumina amid the ongoing curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in Australia.

Alcoa is advancing a strategic partnership with IGNIS, a Spanish renewable energy investment firm. The agreement includes selling 25% of Alcoa's operations in Spain and a potential €175 million ($189 million) investment by Alcoa if required. The deal is contingent on government and employee support.

On 15 October, Alcoa signed a long-term supply agreement with Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) to deliver 1.5 million t of smelter-grade alumina over 10 years beginning in 2026, bolstering its position as a global alumina supplier.

Outlook

With strong alumina prices and strategic partnerships, Alcoa expects its alumina segment performance to improve by $30 million, driven by increased shipments and reduced production costs. As global aluminum demand remains steady, Alcoa’s ability to adapt through cost efficiency and partnerships positions it favorably for future growth.

Century EGA Oklahoma Aluminum Plant Could Transform US Primary Supply

EGA

The Century EGA Oklahoma aluminum plant could become the most important US smelter project in decades. Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminium will jointly develop a primary aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma. Production is expected by the end of the decade. As a result, the Century EGA Oklahoma aluminum plant could reshape US primary aluminum supply.

The scale alone makes this project significant. The plant is expected to produce 750,000 metric tonnes per year of primary aluminum. That is higher than the earlier 600,000 t/yr estimate. Therefore, the Century EGA Oklahoma aluminum plant now stands out as a major capacity addition.

This matters because current US output remains limited. The United States produced only 670,000t of primary aluminum in 2024. In simple terms, the new Oklahoma aluminum smelter could exceed current annual domestic production. Consequently, the project could materially change the national supply balance.

Oklahoma Aluminum Smelter Depends on Power and Execution

The Oklahoma aluminum smelter still depends on one critical factor. Long-term competitive power must be secured before the project can succeed. The companies said discussions with the local utility and Oklahoma officials are progressing. However, power pricing will determine whether the plant can compete globally.

Construction is expected to begin by the end of 2026. That timeline suggests the partners want to move from concept to execution quickly. Meanwhile, both companies will focus their US greenfield efforts solely on this site. That concentration increases strategic importance and execution pressure at the same time.

Ownership structure also matters. EGA will hold 60pc of the project, while Century will own 40pc. This arrangement combines EGA’s scale with Century’s US market position. Therefore, the venture brings both industrial depth and domestic relevance.

US Primary Aluminum Supply Is Becoming a Strategic Priority

US primary aluminum supply now carries greater strategic importance. Domestic manufacturers need secure access to metal for transport, packaging, construction, and defense. Policymakers also want more local production of energy-intensive industrial materials. As a result, this smelter aligns with both market demand and industrial policy goals.

Federal support has already reinforced that direction. Century was selected in 2024 for up to $500mn in government funding support. That backing reflects a broader policy push to rebuild industrial capacity inside the United States. Therefore, the Oklahoma project is not only commercial. It is also strategic.

The wider aluminum market will watch this project closely. New primary smelters are expensive, power-intensive, and slow to build. Yet they can anchor supply chains for decades once they operate. Consequently, this plant could become a defining test for US aluminum reinvestment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project is bigger than a normal capacity announcement. It is a test of whether the United States can rebuild large-scale primary aluminum production with competitive power. If execution stays on track, Oklahoma could become a landmark site in the next phase of US industrial metals strategy.

Aluminum Four-Year High Signals Rising Energy and Metals Market Stress

Aluminum Bar

Aluminum four-year high became the clearest metals market signal on Monday as Middle East tensions intensified. LME three-month aluminum rose 2.5pc to $3,571/t, its highest level since March 2022. Rising oil prices and supply concerns pushed traders back into the market. As a result, aluminum four-year high now reflects both physical stress and geopolitical fear.

This matters because aluminum is highly exposed to energy costs and regional supply disruption. Brent crude moved back above $100/bl after the US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Around 20pc of global oil and LNG supply passes through Hormuz. Therefore, LME aluminum prices are now reacting to energy risk as much as metal fundamentals.

The move also comes with visible stock changes. On-warrant aluminum inventories in LME warehouses jumped by a third to 354,450t after nearly 90,000t was rewarranted. That likely reflects traders repositioning physical units ahead of tighter conditions. Consequently, aluminum four-year high is being reinforced by both sentiment and inventory behavior.

Oil-Driven Metal Rally Is Lifting Copper and Nickel Too

Oil-driven metal rally is not limited to aluminum. Three-month copper rose 1pc to $12,855/t, while the next active Comex copper contract climbed 1.8pc to $5.99/lb. Three-month nickel also gained 2.6pc to $17,650/t. As a result, Middle East metals market risk is now lifting the broader complex.

Copper has its own support as well. Chinese smelters raised refined copper output in the first quarter by more than 7pc on the year. Higher sulphuric acid byproduct prices helped offset collapsing treatment and refining charges. Therefore, copper is being supported by both financial momentum and resilient Chinese production.

Nickel also benefited from the wider risk-on move in metals. Lead and zinc were almost unchanged, while tin was the only base metal to fall on the day. That contrast shows the market is rewarding metals with stronger geopolitical and speculative sensitivity. Meanwhile, aluminum remains the strongest headline performer.

Demand Signals Still Look Mixed Beneath the Price Rally

Demand signals remain mixed even as prices rise. Japan’s primary aluminum imports fell 3.4pc year on year and 16.8pc month on month in February. Local shipments of extrusions, flat rolled products, and foil also declined. Therefore, the aluminum four-year high is not being driven by strong downstream demand.

This divergence matters for the next phase of the market. Prices are rising because energy insecurity and supply risk are dominating near-term trade. However, weak physical demand in some regions may limit how far the rally can run without new disruption. As a result, Middle East metals market risk is overpowering softer industrial demand for now.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This rally is telling the market one clear thing: energy shocks still move metals fast. Aluminum is leading because it sits closest to power costs and regional supply risk. If oil stays above $100 and Hormuz remains unstable, the metals complex may keep pricing geopolitics ahead of demand fundamentals.