CBA Forecasts Higher Aluminum Sales Despite Production Cuts in 2025

cba

Brazilian aluminum producer CBA projects increased aluminum sales for 2025, targeting 500,000 metric tonnes despite planned production reductions in the coming months. The company anticipates stronger demand from construction, energy, and automotive sectors will drive sales growth, even as scheduled refinery maintenance temporarily constrains output capacity.

Production Challenges and Market Strategy

CBA expects aluminum production to decline significantly during the second quarter due to planned refinery maintenance, cutting output to 80,000 tonnes. However, the company projects production will recover to 90,000 tonnes by the end of the third quarter as maintenance activities conclude. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize between $2,350-$2,400 per tonne throughout the forecast period.

The company's first quarter performance showed mixed results across different product segments. Primary aluminum segment sales decreased by 7% to 61,000 tonnes, down from 66,000 tonnes in the prior year, primarily due to reduced billet sales. Conversely, recycled aluminum sales surged 19% to 26,000 tonnes, compared to 20,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

Export Dynamics and Global Market Influences

CBA's export strategy has shifted significantly, with exports representing only 4% of shipments in the first quarter, down from 10% in the previous year. This reduction reflects changing market dynamics and the company's focus on domestic demand. Therefore, CBA concentrates on serving Brazilian markets while maintaining selective international presence.

Global scrap market conditions increasingly influence CBA's operational decisions and cost structure. The company considers adjusting scrap usage patterns as higher US demand, driven by tariff exemptions, has elevated scrap prices worldwide. As a result, these market dynamics require strategic planning to maintain competitive pricing while securing adequate raw material supplies.

However, CBA remains optimistic about aluminum demand prospects across key industrial sectors. The construction, energy, and automotive industries show promising growth trajectories that support the company's ambitious sales targets for 2025.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBA's strategic approach demonstrates the complex balance between production constraints and market opportunities in the global aluminum industry. The company's ability to increase sales despite lower output reflects strong domestic demand and efficient capacity utilization, positioning CBA to capitalize on Brazil's growing industrial aluminum consumption.