Sims Faces Challenges in UK and US Markets Amid Difficult Fiscal Year

Metals recycling giant Sims is taking decisive steps to address the "difficult" financial performance it experienced in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024. In a strategic move to streamline operations, Sims has divested its UK business, which comprised 28 sites, including three port facilities and four shredders. This decision followed an internal review that concluded the UK operations were "non-productive," as revealed during an earnings call this week.

Sims' CEO, Stephen Mikkelsen, pointed out that the tight supply conditions in the UK were a significant factor contributing to the underwhelming results. The scarcity of inflows forced Sims' suppliers to turn to container shipping and deep-sea volumes, which strained margins. However, a favorable exchange rate provided some relief, even as the production of premium low-copper shred added to operating costs.

The sale of the UK business generated £195 million ($255 million), which Sims plans to use primarily to reduce debt. The company is now focusing on enhancing the efficiency of its remaining operations. Sales volumes in the UK sector had dropped by 8% to 1.29 million tonnes year-on-year, highlighting the challenges that led to the divestment.

This strategic shift will allow Sims to concentrate on its core markets in the US and Australia-New Zealand, where it aims to improve performance following disappointing results from its North American sector. Inflow volumes in North America decreased over the year, despite the acquisition of Baltimore Scrap, a US-based recycler. Additionally, inflationary pressures squeezed margins, though shredder utilization in North America improved to 68.5% in the second half of the fiscal year, up from 66.5% in the first half. Proprietary sales volumes in the region saw a slight decline, totaling 5 million tonnes over the twelve months.

The acquisition of Baltimore Scrap was intended to expand Sims' footprint in the US and leverage the growing demand for steel. However, some shareholders are now advocating for the sale of Sims' North American assets to SA Recycling, which is partially owned but not managed by Sims. They cite concerns over the current leadership's ability to capitalize on long-term demand and revenue opportunities.

Despite global steel demand remaining subdued due to the influence of lower-priced Chinese steel and tepid economic indicators, Sims is optimistic about the outlook for ferrous and non-ferrous scrap. This optimism is driven by ongoing decarbonization efforts and the increasing demand for data center construction.

However, the financial impact of the challenging year was stark. Sims reported an after-tax loss of A$57.8 million ($39 million) for fiscal year 2024, a sharp contrast to the A$181.1 million after-tax profit recorded in 2023.

Boosting UK's EV Market: Jatco and Nissan's New Powertrain Plant in Sunderland

Jatco

Japanese automotive giants Nissan and Jatco, in partnership with the UK government, have announced an ambitious plan to establish a new £48.7 million electric vehicle (EV) powertrain facility in Sunderland, UK, slated to commence in 2026. This strategic move is set to propel the UK further into the forefront of the global EV market.

A Strategic Expansion into Europe

The upcoming facility in Sunderland marks Jatco's first foray into European manufacturing but builds on its robust global presence with existing facilities in Mexico, China, and Thailand. This expansion is expected to significantly enhance Jatco's production capabilities, aiming for an annual output of 340,000 EV powertrains. These powertrains are crucial components, analogous to the engine in traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, and are integral to the operation of electric vehicles.

Innovative Technology and Material Use

The plant will focus on producing Jatco's "3-in-1" electrified powertrains, which integrate the motor, inverter, and reducer into a single compact module. This innovation not only makes the units smaller and lighter but also optimizes performance. The motor, essential for converting electrical to mechanical energy, utilizes rare earth metals such as neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. The inverter, which converts DC from the battery to AC for the motor, heavily employs copper, while the reducer relies on high-strength steel and alloys that may include nickel and manganese.

Strengthening Local Economy and Sustainable Manufacturing

Sunderland's existing Nissan plant, which began EV production in 2013 and employs 6,000 people, is poised to become an all-electric facility. The city is already home to an Envision AESC gigafactory, further solidifying its status as a key player in the UK's automotive sector. UK business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds hailed the new plant as a significant endorsement of the UK's economic environment and its attractiveness as a destination for major investments.

EU and UK Extend Steel Safeguard Measures to 2026

In a significant policy update, the European Commission has extended its steel safeguard measures for an additional two years, setting the new expiration date to June 2026. This decision, announced on June 25, 2024, follows an in-depth investigation prompted by 14 EU member states, which highlighted the necessity of these measures to prevent significant damage to the EU steel industry​.

The investigation identified several critical factors contributing to the ongoing import pressures on the EU market. These include persistently high global steel production capacity, increased exports from China to third countries (notably in Asia), and a rise in trade defense and restrictive measures by other countries. Additionally, there has been a significant decline in steel demand within the EU, further straining the market​.

First introduced in July 2018 in response to the US's Section 232 tariffs on steel, the EU’s safeguard measures involve Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs). These quotas allow certain volumes of steel imports at lower duty rates, with a 25% duty imposed on imports exceeding these quotas. The latest extension includes technical adjustments to better align the measures with current market conditions, effective from July 1, 2024.

Similarly, the UK government has extended its steel safeguard measures until June 30, 2026. This decision, approved by the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade on June 26, 2024, came after a recommendation from the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA). The UK steel industry, facing similar global pressures and market imbalances, has welcomed this extension as vital for its protection.

Industry experts have underscored the importance of these measures in maintaining the stability of the steel market within the EU and the UK. They argue that the measures help counteract the effects of global overcapacity and redirected trade flows, providing a necessary buffer for domestic producers​​.

In conclusion, both the EU and the UK are taking significant steps to safeguard their steel industries from ongoing global market pressures, ensuring stability and protection for the foreseeable future.

UK BEV Sales Surge in September, But Industry Pushes for More Government Incentives

UK BEV

The UK automotive industry reached a significant milestone last month with record-breaking sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which climbed to 56,387 units, marking a new high for September. Despite this promising uptick, car manufacturers are urging the government to extend consumer incentives to support the continued growth of electric vehicle sales, according to the latest report from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

While fleet sales of BEVs saw a modest increase of 3.7% last month and a more significant 16.3% rise year-to-date, private sales painted a different picture. Private BEV sales dipped by 1.8% in September, contributing to a 9.4% drop year-to-date. Overall, UK car sales edged up 1% last month, with total sales for the year reflecting a 4.3% increase.

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes commented on the record BEV sales but warned that "the market is not growing quickly enough to meet mandated targets." Although BEVs claimed 20.5% of market share in September, the year-to-date share remains at 17.8%, falling short of the UK government's mandated target of 22% for 2024. Some market analysts speculate that BEV sales will likely accelerate toward the end of the year as automakers seek to avoid penalties for failing to meet these targets.

Carmakers Urge Government Support

Car manufacturers have made substantial investments in reducing the cost of BEVs, but many believe that further government support is necessary to help bridge the gap. On October 4, the SMMT, in collaboration with 12 major carmakers including Volkswagen, BMW, and Ford, sent an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, urging the government to consider new measures to incentivize BEV purchases and improve charging infrastructure.

The letter proposed several initiatives, such as temporarily halving value-added tax (VAT) on new EV purchases, scrapping the value excise duty supplement for BEVs, and lowering the public charging VAT rate to 5%—the same rate applied to private households. The SMMT also called for the extension of business incentives, including the Benefit in Kind (BiK) rate for electric vehicles, which is set to gradually rise from its current 2% to 5% by 2027-28. In comparison, diesel and petrol vehicles hold BiK rates of 25% or higher.

Additionally, the UK's plug-in van grant offers a 35% discount—up to £5,000 off the price of new electric vans weighing up to 3.5 tons, and up to £2,500 for vans under 2.5 tons. However, these grants have been reduced since 2021, when savings were as high as £6,000 and £3,000 respectively. The government has confirmed that the current grants will remain in place until the end of the 2024-25 financial year, but automakers argue that further incentives are needed to ensure sustained momentum in the transition to electric vehicles.

Ecobat Sells European Battery Distribution Business to Refocus on Recycling

Ecobat

Strategic Shift Toward Core Battery Recycling Operations

Ecobat, a Texas-based battery recycler, has sold its European battery distribution arm to UK private equity firm Endless as part of a strategy to divest non-core assets. The divested division supplied a broad range of batteries for automotive, commercial, marine, leisure, and industrial markets. While financial terms remain undisclosed, the move underscores Ecobat’s intent to prioritize its core battery recycling operations across the US, UK, and Germany.

Market Pressures and Recycling Industry Challenges

Ecobat’s three lithium battery recycling facilities have a combined processing capacity of up to 10,000 metric tonnes per year. However, the battery recycling sector faces significant headwinds. Slower-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) adoption has limited the availability of end-of-life battery feedstock, while a growing shift toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries — which contain fewer high-value metals like cobalt and nickel — has reduced the economic incentive for recycling. This market pressure has already impacted competitors, as demonstrated by Canadian recycler Li-Cycle’s recent bankruptcy protection filing in both Canada and the US.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecobat’s divestment aligns with an industry trend of focusing resources on profitable, technology-driven recycling operations rather than lower-margin distribution businesses. As the EV market evolves and LFP battery adoption accelerates, recyclers will need to adapt their business models to remain competitive. Partnerships with battery producers and innovation in material recovery technology may be crucial for long-term success.

IQE GaSb and GaN strategy pivots business toward AI and power markets amid sale options

IQE

IQE’s GaSb and GaN strategy is reshaping the UK compound semiconductor maker as it explores a potential sale of the company. The IQE GaSb and GaN strategy shifts focus toward high-value sensing, photonics and power electronics while legacy wireless markets remain under pressure. As a result, the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy now sits at the core of IQE’s turnaround and M&A narrative.

IQE has continued to rationalise its footprint while redirecting capital to growth nodes. The firm suspended manufacturing at its Silicon site in south Wales and plans to exit fully by the fourth quarter, with a new operator taking over the facility. This follows the sale of its decommissioned Bethlehem, Pennsylvania site in late 2023, with skills, IP and customers transferred to Greensboro, North Carolina. That larger US site now anchors IQE’s presence in advanced sensing, optical communications, aerospace, defence and wireless markets.

However, the restructuring runs in parallel with a strategic review that has widened from a Taiwan business sale to a possible sale of the entire company. IQE has been approached by at least one potential buyer and has received further early expressions of interest. Any acquirer would gain exposure across all four III-V platforms — GaAs, InP, GaN and GaSb — with particular upside in infrared sensing, AI data communications and GaN power electronics.

GaSb sensor momentum underpins IQE GaSb and GaN strategy

GaSb is emerging as a central pillar of the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy, especially in infrared and space imaging. IQE holds GaSb substrate manufacturing capacity in Spokane, Washington, and in Milton Keynes in the UK, creating a transatlantic supply base. The company has shipped its first commercial 6-inch GaSb epiwafers for large-area sensor products used in advanced space and satellite imaging.

These technology milestones are now backed by tangible orders. IQE secured a first-year $1.7mn purchase order for GaSb epitaxial wafers under a three-year agreement with a long-standing infrared sensing customer. It also landed a $4.1mn purchase order for antimonide substrates, with deliveries running into 2026. These sensors target industrial, aerospace and security applications, where long qualification cycles favour stable, specialist suppliers.

Meanwhile, photonics revenue remained broadly flat at £26.6mn in the first half, compared with £26.8mn a year earlier. Strong InP demand for AI-driven data communications offset delays in US military and defence infrared programmes. IQE also launched a 6-inch foundry platform for silicon photonics, positioning GaSb and InP technologies inside emerging AI and hyperscale data centre architectures.

GaN power growth, AI demand and risks to IQE GaSb and GaN strategy

On the GaN side, IQE is expanding reactor capacity for 8-inch GaN-on-silicon targeted at gesture recognition in AR and VR displays. At the same time, it is developing high-voltage (>1,000V) GaN technologies, including vertical GaN and GaN-on-sapphire, to serve automotive power electronics and radar markets. These developments reinforce how GaN power is becoming a key enabler for AI-era data centre power needs and high-efficiency conversion.

Management sees this GaN power pivot as crucial to long-term growth. Chief executive Jutta Meier highlighted the diversification into GaN power and connectivity as the right strategy, citing surging AI-related infrastructure and communications demand. IQE expects to benefit from the exit of a key GaN foundry player, which could free market share for its expanded platform. Multiple Tier 1 design wins in laser and detector products for AI and hyperscale data centres signal that the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy is already landing important customers.

Yet the investment case also carries risks. First-half group revenue fell to £45.3mn from £66mn, driven by a 52pc collapse in wireless revenue to £18.6mn. Overhang from 2024 inventory builds, tariff uncertainty and weak smartphone demand continue to weigh on handset-linked GaAs volumes. IQE expects wireless inventories to normalise only from 2026 and now guides 2025 revenue at £90-100mn, down from £118mn in 2024. The success of the IQE GaSb and GaN strategy must therefore offset a structurally weaker wireless segment and fund ongoing capacity shifts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IQE is moving from a broad, handset-heavy portfolio toward a more focused, higher-margin mix centred on GaSb sensing, GaN power and AI photonics. That repositioning strengthens its appeal as a strategic target for buyers seeking exposure to AI infrastructure and defence-linked semiconductors. The key question is whether GaSb and GaN growth can ramp fast enough to stabilise revenues before wireless markets recover.

Japan’s Sumitomo Chemical Exits Brazilian Aluminium Refining: Focus on Business Optimization

Sumitomo Chemical

Japanese petrochemical giant, Sumitomo Chemical, has sold its 2.97% stake in Nippon Amazon Aluminium Co. (NAAC) to YKK AP, a domestic architectural goods supplier, as part of its broader business optimization strategy. With this transaction finalized on December 19, YKK AP's stake in NAAC has risen to 6.31% from 2.02%. While the financial details of the transaction were not disclosed, the move signifies a strategic shift for Sumitomo Chemical as it exits overseas aluminium refining operations.

NAAC holds a 49% stake in Aluminio Brasileiro S.A. (Albras), a Brazilian aluminium refiner renowned for producing 450,000 tons of aluminum ingots annually. Albras operates using renewable energy, making it a key player in reducing CO2 emissions in the aluminium production process. This aligns with growing global demand for sustainable and low-carbon aluminium products.

YKK AP's Green Aluminium Expansion

The deal positions YKK AP to double its aluminium ingot output, an important milestone in its efforts to procure green aluminium feedstock and decarbonize its operations. The company uses approximately 140,000 tons of aluminium annually within Japan. This acquisition is part of YKK AP's push to adopt sustainable materials and strengthen its competitiveness in the eco-conscious global market.

Sumitomo Chemical’s Broader Realignments

Sumitomo Chemical’s decision to sell its NAAC shares marks a complete withdrawal from the overseas aluminium ingot business. The company cited high profitability volatility in imported aluminium markets, largely influenced by fluctuating global aluminium prices. Earlier in the year, Sumitomo Chemical divested its shares in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters and Boyne Smelters to Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining conglomerate.

The company has also exited from two polypropylene (PP) compound manufacturing subsidiaries in China due to intensifying competition from local producers. Announced on December 18, this move reflects Sumitomo Chemical’s focus on optimizing its business portfolio by concentrating on more stable and profitable ventures.

Melrose Industries Reports 26% Engine Revenue Growth on Aftermarket Strength in 2024

Melrose Industries

Defence spending and additive fabrication boost GKN Aerospace unit despite civil production headwinds.

Melrose Industries, the UK-based parent of GKN Aerospace, reported a 26% rise in engine division revenue to £1.46 billion ($1.88 billion) in 2024. The company’s engine aftermarket business grew by 32%, helping push operating profit up 40% to £422 million.

Aftermarket demand surged due to increased defence contracts and maintenance-related services, as commercial aircraft deliveries remained constrained. This dynamic benefited Melrose’s service business while placing pressure on original equipment (OE) volumes.

Defence Demand and OEM Partnerships Support Outlook

Melrose highlighted strong defence sector momentum, which offset civil market weakness. While structures revenue rose 3% to £2.01 billion, it declined 5% when adjusted for exited business. Civil aircraft destocking and sluggish OE build rates—notably at Boeing and Airbus—continued to limit growth.

The company's revenue mix remains 72% civil to 28% defence, but with EU and NATO nations ramping military budgets, defence is set to play a larger role in 2025 and beyond.

Melrose also made strategic strides in additive fabrication, delivering its first fully 3D-printed demonstrator case for CFM International’s RISE engine programme. It has secured long-term contracts with Pratt & Whitney and GE Aerospace, positioning itself as a key player in next-generation aerospace components.

2025 Outlook: Growth to Moderate Amid Supply Chain Constraints

Melrose projects 2025 revenue between £3.55–3.7 billion, but cautioned that supply chain bottlenecks may slow growth, especially in the structures business. However, continued aftermarket expansion and innovation in fabrication techniques offer upside for the engine division.

With strong defence tailwinds, additive manufacturing adoption, and established OEM ties, Melrose is well-positioned for strategic growth across core aerospace segments.

Hydro European Extrusion Plant Closures Signal Deeper Pressure in Aluminium Demand

Hydro

Hydro European extrusion plant closures are expanding as the Norwegian aluminium producer adds the Luce plant in France to its restructuring plan. The move brings the number of European extrusion plants targeted for closure in 2026 to six, reflecting continued weakness in regional aluminium demand.

Hydro previously announced plans to close extrusion plants in Cheltenham and Bedwas in the UK, Ludenscheid in Germany, Feltre in Italy, and Drunen in the Netherlands. The two UK closures have been confirmed and are scheduled for the second quarter.

Hydro European extrusion plant closures show that aluminium processors are still adapting to weak construction, automotive, and industrial demand across Europe. The company also closed its Birtley extrusion plant in the UK in May, underlining the scale of its capacity adjustment.

European Aluminium Extrusion Market Remains Under Pressure

The European aluminium extrusion market continues to face difficult operating conditions. Weak demand, high costs, and margin pressure are forcing producers to reassess plant networks and remove capacity from less competitive sites.

Hydro said the European market remains challenging and that further action is needed. The planned Luce closure fits into a broader effort to align capacity with demand while maintaining service levels in key markets such as France.

If all planned closures are completed, Hydro will retain 27 extrusion plants and five recycling facilities in its European extrusion business. This suggests the company is not exiting Europe, but reshaping its footprint around fewer, more competitive assets.

Luce Closure Adds Cost but Supports Long-Term Restructuring

Hydro estimates total restructuring costs related to the Luce closure at Nkr260mn, or about $27.2mn. Around Nkr5mn will affect the company’s adjusted earnings in the first quarter.

The near-term cost is part of a wider restructuring logic. Aluminium extrusion producers need scale, utilization, efficient logistics, and competitive energy and labour cost structures to protect margins in a weak market.

Hydro European extrusion plant closures also highlight a broader issue for Europe’s downstream aluminium sector. Demand recovery remains uncertain, while producers must continue investing in recycling, low-carbon aluminium, and higher-value applications to remain competitive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hydro’s restructuring shows that Europe’s aluminium challenge is moving downstream, not staying limited to smelting. The winners will be producers that can combine leaner capacity, recycling integration, and higher-value customer segments before demand fully recovers.

Anglo American Completes Platinum Business Demerger with Valterra

Anglo American

Strategic Focus Shifts to Copper and Iron Ore

Anglo American has officially completed the demerger of its platinum business, now operating as Valterra Platinum, marking a significant strategic shift. The UK-based miner will retain a 19.9pc stake in Valterra for at least 90 days post-demerger, ensuring a transitional link between the two companies. The move aligns with Anglo American’s broader restructuring efforts aimed at sharpening its focus on copper and iron ore.

The demerger, approved by shareholders on 30 April 2025, took legal effect on 31 May, followed by a share consolidation effective 1 June. Valterra Platinum has secured a primary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange as of 2 June. This dual-market presence is expected to boost investor accessibility and liquidity.

This spin-off is part of a broader divestment strategy announced in response to a 2024 hostile takeover bid from Australia’s BHP. Alongside platinum, Anglo American intends to separate its coal, nickel, and diamond businesses. By narrowing its commodity portfolio, the company aims to strengthen its core operations in copper and iron ore—two sectors forecast to see robust demand growth over the next decade.

Positioning for Long-Term Competitiveness

The restructuring signals Anglo American’s intent to position itself for long-term market competitiveness, especially as global energy transition policies drive demand for copper. Meanwhile, Valterra Platinum will operate as an independent entity with a clearer strategic mandate in the platinum group metals sector. Both companies are expected to benefit from greater operational focus and capital allocation discipline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s spin-off of Valterra Platinum underscores a decisive move toward higher-growth commodities, particularly copper. This strategy not only rebuffs takeover pressures but also aligns the company with long-term market trends driven by electrification and infrastructure investment. Valterra, meanwhile, gains independence to concentrate on platinum group metals in a challenging but potentially rewarding market.

Argentina Targets $30 Billion in Annual Critical Mineral Exports

Critical Mineral

Copper and lithium to anchor Argentina’s mining surge, as foreign investors drive upstream battery-grade expansion.

Argentina aims to export $30 billion worth of critical minerals annually within the next five to seven years, according to Vice Minister of Energy and Mining Daniel Gonzalez. Speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Gonzalez said the forecast hinges on lithium and copper, the country’s two most strategic resources.

The projection reflects Argentina’s emergence as a global hub for lithium production, with foreign-backed projects advancing steadily. Gonzalez emphasized the diversity of investment sources, including China, France, the UK, and the United States.

Lithium Sector Expands with Global Backing

Argentina currently hosts six operational lithium projects. Notable investors include Ganfeng Lithium (China), Eramet (France), Rio Tinto (UK-Australia), and Arcadium Lithium (US), recently acquired by Rio Tinto.

“There are no restrictions on foreign ownership,” Gonzalez noted, signaling a business-friendly regulatory environment. Most projects use brine-based extraction and are vertically integrated up to the production of battery-grade lithium salts.

Processing Capacity Grows, But No Battery Manufacturing

While lithium conversion facilities are embedded in most projects, Gonzalez acknowledged Argentina still lacks domestic battery manufacturing.

“All of their projects go to battery grade… What we don’t have is battery manufacturing. I don’t think we will have, unfortunately,” he stated.

Still, Argentina’s battery-grade lithium output positions the country as a key upstream supplier to global energy storage and electric vehicle markets. With rising demand and favorable investor terms, the nation is poised to become a top-tier player in the critical minerals supply chain.

Anglo American to Sell Brazilian Nickel Assets to MMG for Up to $500 Million

Anglo American

Strategic sale aligns Anglo’s focus on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients amid nickel market shifts

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining major, has agreed to sell its Brazilian nickel business to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for up to $500 million. The deal will streamline Anglo’s portfolio as it pivots toward copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients—sectors with stronger long-term demand.

The transaction includes an upfront $350 million cash payment, a $100 million price-linked earnout, and an additional $50 million contingent payment tied to development projects. MMG’s acquisition will be executed through its Singapore Resources arm, and the deal is expected to close by September 2025.

Brazilian ferronickel assets and greenfield projects included

The sale covers several key nickel operations in Brazil: the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel plants, as well as the Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné greenfield development projects. These assets provide MMG with direct access to high-grade nickel resources amid growing demand from battery and stainless steel industries.

In 2024, Anglo produced 39,400 tonnes of nickel (metal equivalent), down 1.5% year-on-year. It projects 2025 output between 37,000 and 39,000 tonnes. The sale will help Anglo prioritize high-margin projects in metals crucial to the global energy transition.

MMG expands presence as Brazil nickel exports to China fall

MMG, backed by state-owned China Minmetals Corporation, continues to secure upstream assets worldwide as China strengthens its control over energy transition metals. Despite the decline in Brazil's 2024 ferronickel exports to China—40,048 tonnes, down 36.3% from 2023—MMG’s acquisition signals confidence in long-term nickel demand.

Indonesia’s rise in nickel pig iron (NPI) output has pressured Brazilian exports, especially in the stainless steel sector. Meanwhile, Brazilian mining giant Vale is also reviewing its nickel portfolio, possibly considering divestment to sharpen competitiveness in its vertically integrated business model.

This transaction highlights shifting dynamics in global nickel supply as miners recalibrate for market volatility and the EV-driven demand surge.

2026 Global Temperature Forecast Signals Rising Risk for Metals and Supply Chains

UK Met Office

The 2026 global temperature forecast signals another year of extreme operational risk for industry. UK Met Office expects 2026 to rank among the four warmest years recorded. The 2026 global temperature forecast sets a central estimate of 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, firms should stress-test energy, logistics, and metal supply plans now.

Why the 2026 global temperature forecast matters for metals and manufacturing

Higher heat raises power demand and tightens electricity markets for smelters and refineries. Meanwhile, grids face higher peak loads from cooling and data centers. As a result, aluminium, copper, and steel producers may see higher volatility in power prices. Operators can hedge by securing long-term PPAs and improving thermal efficiency.

Heat also increases physical disruption risk across ports, mines, and rail corridors. However, companies can reduce downtime with heat-ready maintenance windows and resilient water systems. Wildfire and drought risk can tighten concentrate flows and raise insurance costs. Therefore, buyers will pay more for reliable delivery and low-risk jurisdictions.

Policy pressure rises as annual temperatures stay near 1.5°C

The 2026 global temperature forecast reinforces tougher climate policy and carbon pricing trends. The Met Office projects a range of 1.34°C to 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, the world logged 1.55°C in 2024, the hottest year on record. Therefore, procurement teams will face faster moves toward verified low-carbon materials.

Supply chains will compete for low-emissions inputs as standards tighten. However, many sectors still rely on older assets that lock in higher fuel burn. As a result, demand for electrification metals and recycling capacity should stay robust. Companies that measure embedded emissions will win tenders and avoid surprises.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This forecast does not change the Paris framework on its own. However, it sharpens the business case for heat resilience and green power contracts. Metals leaders can treat climate volatility as a cost line they can manage.

Ascend Elements Bankruptcy Exposes Pressure in Battery Recycling Market

Ascend Elements

Ascend Elements bankruptcy filing shows how difficult the battery recycling business has become as electric vehicle adoption slows in the US and Europe. The US battery recycler has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will use the court-supervised process to restructure liabilities while continuing normal operations.

Ascend Elements bankruptcy comes despite major commercial and government-backed support. The company said it had secured more than $2bn in commercial agreements and a $320mn grant from Poland, but these were not enough to overcome longstanding financial issues and outstanding liabilities.

The filing highlights a broader weakness in the battery recycling sector. Recyclers need steady end-of-life battery and production scrap feedstock, but slower EV growth has limited available material and made it harder to sell recovered products into battery supply chains.

Funding and Offtake Deals Failed to Offset Financial Pressure

Ascend had previously planned to develop cathode active material production in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. However, the company and the US Department of Energy agreed in March 2025 to cancel a $164mn grant for that project.

The company later received a $320mn grant from Poland in May 2025 to build a precursor cathode active material plant. That support showed continued policy interest in battery materials localization, especially in Europe.

Ascend also signed a five-year offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with 15,000t of lithium carbonate from 2027 to 2031. The agreement gave the company a future sales channel, but it did not solve its immediate balance-sheet pressure.

Slower EV Growth Weakens Recycling Economics

Ascend Elements bankruptcy reflects the timing problem facing battery recyclers. Many business models were built around rapid EV growth, rising battery scrap availability and strong demand for recycled lithium, nickel, cobalt and cathode materials.

But slower EV adoption has delayed feedstock growth and reduced market confidence. Without sufficient input material and reliable downstream demand, recyclers can struggle to operate at the scale needed to justify large processing and materials investments.

The pressure is not limited to Ascend. Texas-based recycler Ecobat is selling assets in the UK, France, Italy, Germany and Austria to focus on North America, showing that consolidation and retrenchment are spreading across the sector.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ascend Elements bankruptcy shows that battery recycling is strategically important but commercially unforgiving. The winners will be companies with secured feedstock, disciplined capital spending and customers ready to buy recycled battery materials at scale.

Rio Tinto’s Copper, Aluminium Earnings Surge in First Half of 2024

UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tintos aluminium and copper earnings increased year on year in the first half of 2024.

Copper

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) in Rio Tinto's copper business increased by 67% on the year in the first half to $1.8 million, benefiting from the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and resumed operations at the Kennecott smelter in the United States following its rebuild last year.

Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 13% on the year to 327,000 tons in the first half of this year on the back of higher output from its three operations. Mined copper output increased by 9% on the year at Escondida in Chile and 18% at Kennecott. Mined copper output also increased by 15% at Oyu Tolgoi, keeping it on track to reach 500,000 tons per year of copper from 2028 to 2036.

Refined copper production increased by 32% on the year to 125,000 tons in the first half owing to the resumed operations at Kennecott, partially offset by lower refined copper production from Escondida by 19%.

The firm expects to produce 660,000-720,000 tons of mined copper and 230,000-260,000 tons of refined copper in 2024.

Aluminium

Rio Tinto's aluminium business saw Ebitda jump 38% higher on the year in the first six months, reaching $1.58 billion, as revenues edged up by 4% to $6.49 billion.

The company reported easing costs for key raw materials such as caustic soda, coke, and pitch. Average all-in prices remained broadly stable as rising London Metal Exchange aluminium prices were mitigated by lower premiums.

Rio produced 1.65 million tons of aluminium in the first half, up by 3% on the year, with broadly stable production across its smelter network.

The company produced 3.54 million tons of alumina in the first half, down by 5% on the year, while bauxite production rose by 10% on the year to 28.1 million tons in the first half.

In the second quarter, Rio Tinto began consolidating ownership of its aluminium smelters. At the end of May, the company agreed to acquire Japanese firm Sumitomo Chemical's stake in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, giving Rio Tinto 100% ownership of the company. The following month, it agreed to acquire Japanese firm Mitsubishi's 11.65% stake in the Boyne Smelters subsidiary, which owns and operates the Boyne Island aluminium smelter in Gladstone.

Rolls-Royce Sees Increase in Trent Engine Deliveries and Aftermarket Services in First Half of 2024

UK aircraft engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce reported a significant increase in the delivery of large engines and aftermarket services in the first half of 2024. This surge is primarily driven by the Trent XWB-84 and Trent 7000 models, along with a growing demand for long-term service agreement (LTSA) shop visits, which is expected to boost the company's operating profits.

Rolls-Royce delivered 120 large engines from January to June 2024, up from 115 during the same period last year. This included 44 Trent XWB-84s, 37 Trent 7000s, 24 Trent 1000s, and 15 Trent XWB-97s. The XWB-84 and XWB-97 power Airbus' A350, the 7000 powers the A330neo, and the 1000 is used in Boeing's 787. Additionally, deliveries of smaller civil engines for business and regional aviation increased to 116 units, up from 73 a year earlier.

LTSA shop visits rose to 624, with 413 for large engines and 211 for smaller engines. Of these, 394 were classified as major.

Rolls-Royce received 273 large engine orders in the first half of the year, with notable orders for the A350 from Delta and IndiGo, followed by 787/777 and A330neo bookings from Korean Air and VietJet at the Farnborough Airshow. The company's order book at the end of June stood at 1,773 engines, up from 1,405 a year earlier.

Flight testing for high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade improvements on the Trent 1000, which will double the time on wing, is about to begin. This part is already in service on about half of the Trent 7000 fleet.

Revenue from Rolls-Royce's civil aerospace division increased to £4.1 billion ($5.2 billion) in the first half of 2024, driven by a rise in shop visits and engine deliveries. Service revenue accounted for £2.8 billion, and original equipment (OE) revenue was £1.3 billion, both up by 27%.

Defence revenues reached £2.2 billion, up by 18%, while power systems revenue grew by 6%, totaling £1.8 billion.

Reflecting the strong performance in the first half of the year, Rolls-Royce has raised its full-year operating profit guidance to £2.1 billion-2.3 billion from the previous £1.7 billion-2 billion forecast in February. Other civil aerospace metrics remain unchanged, with large engine flying hour guidance set at 100-110% of 2019 levels, OE deliveries at 500-550, and shop visits at 1,300-1,400.

Rolls-Royce Maintains 2024 Engine Guidance Amid Strong Demand

Rolls-Royce Aircraft Engine

Rolls-Royce, the renowned UK-based aircraft engine manufacturer, has reaffirmed its 2024 guidance for original equipment (OE) deliveries and shop visits, citing robust demand in both business and widebody aviation sectors. The company remains confident in achieving its targets despite ongoing supply chain challenges affecting the aerospace industry.

Stable Outlook on Key Metrics

Rolls-Royce projects large engine flying hours to reach 100-110% of 2019 levels, alongside 500-550 OE deliveries and 1,300-1,400 shop visits. These projections align with its previous forecasts, underscoring sustained demand for widebody engines as global aviation recovers.

Additionally, Rolls-Royce is progressing toward FAA certification for an enhanced high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade for its Trent 1000 TEN engine, a critical development set to double the engine's "time on wing." Flight testing of the blade commenced earlier this year, marking a significant milestone in improving operational efficiency for engines powering the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

Challenges and Competitive Landscape

While Rolls-Royce maintains steady guidance, the wider industry faces hurdles. Airbus, a key player in the aviation market, recently reported supply chain challenges that could impact its A350 widebody program, particularly in 2025. Despite these disruptions, Airbus targets a production rate of 12 A350s per month by 2028. Rolls-Royce’s titanium requirements, linked to the A350 program, are expected to dip in 2024 before rebounding in 2026.

The company's Trent 1000 engine competes directly with GE Aerospace’s GEnx for market share in powering the Boeing 787. However, Rolls-Royce remains unaffected by Boeing's delays in 777X deliveries, as this aircraft relies exclusively on GE's GE9X engines.

Rolls-Royce's resilience amid constrained supply chains highlights its strategic focus on innovation and maintaining strong relationships with aviation manufacturers. Its steady performance signals confidence in meeting rising demand for efficient, high-performance engines in the global aviation market.

Metlen Aluminium Production Fell in 2025 as Power Costs Hit Metals Profits

Metlen

Metlen aluminium production declined in 2025 as higher European electricity costs squeezed margins across the Greek group’s metals business. The company produced 232,000t of aluminium during the year, down 2% from 2024.

Primary aluminium output fell by 4% to 176,000t, outweighing a 2% increase in recycled aluminium production to 57,000t. Alumina output also slipped by 1% to 855,000t.

Metlen aluminium production weakness shows how European smelters remain exposed to energy costs even when aluminium prices are firmer. Higher power prices reduced operating profits and weakened the earnings contribution from the metals segment.

Aluminium Revenue Rose but EBITDA Fell Sharply

Metlen’s metals revenue increased in 2025, but profitability fell because margins weakened. Aluminium revenue rose by 4% to €646mn, while EBITDA from aluminium dropped by 40% to €127mn.

Alumina showed a similar pattern. Revenue from alumina production increased by 4% to €206mn, but product-linked EBITDA fell by 9% to €79mn.

The result highlights the margin pressure facing European aluminium producers. Stronger aluminium prices, supported by trade tensions and US import tariffs, were not enough to offset higher electricity costs across the region.

Metlen’s metals unit contributed 13% of group revenue. However, weaker metals earnings weighed on the company’s broader industrial performance.

Gallium Project Adds Strategic Value Beyond Aluminium

Metlen’s group EBITDA fell by 30% to €753mn in 2025, despite a 25% increase in revenue to €7.1bn. The decline reflected project execution-related losses, mainly tied to the Protos strategic energy and resource project in the UK.

Revenue growth was supported by stronger performance in renewables, infrastructure, and concessions. This helped offset some weakness from metals, but did not prevent the group-wide earnings decline.

Metlen is also moving into critical materials. The company plans to produce up to 50 t/yr of gallium by 2028 after reaching full capacity, supported by a €90mn investment from the European Investment Bank.

This gallium project could give Metlen a more strategic role in Europe’s critical minerals supply chain. Gallium is important for semiconductors, power electronics, optics, defense systems, and advanced communications technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Metlen’s results show that Europe’s aluminium industry still faces a structural energy-cost problem. The gallium project gives the company a higher-value strategic materials angle, but its aluminium margins will remain tied to power competitiveness.

Rolls-Royce Engine Deliveries Fall as Aftermarket Demand Supports Revenue

Rolls-Royce Engine

Rolls-Royce engine deliveries fell in 2025 as the UK jet engine manufacturer aligned output with slower airframe production schedules at Airbus and Boeing. The company delivered 483 engines, down from 529 in 2024 and below its guidance of 540-570 deliveries.

Rolls-Royce engine deliveries were split between 259 large engines and 224 business aviation and regional engines. The decline reflects ongoing aerospace supply chain constraints, where airframe build rates remain limited by parts shortages, engine availability, and production bottlenecks across the wider aviation manufacturing base.

However, Rolls-Royce still delivered stronger civil aerospace revenue. Revenue rose by 15pc year on year to £10.38bn, supported mainly by a 21pc increase in services and 3pc growth in original equipment. This shows how aftermarket demand can offset weaker new engine deliveries when airlines keep older aircraft in service for longer.

Shop Visits Rise as Airlines Extend Existing Fleet Use

Aircraft engine aftermarket activity strengthened as airlines delayed fleet renewal because of aircraft delivery constraints. Rolls-Royce total shop visits rose by 10pc to 1,440 in 2025 from 1,313 a year earlier.

Large engine major shop visits increased to 517 from 430 in 2024. This reflects heavier maintenance needs as carriers operate existing widebody fleets for longer. For Rolls-Royce, this increases service revenue and improves cash generation even when original equipment delivery volumes fall.

The trend also highlights a deeper aerospace supply chain issue. Delays in new aircraft deliveries do not remove demand for engine capacity. They shift part of that demand into maintenance, repair, overhaul, spare parts, and life-extension work.

Large Engine Backlog Strengthens Long-Term Visibility

Rolls-Royce strengthened its large engine order book despite weaker 2025 deliveries. The company extended its large engine backlog to 2,207 units after booking 638 large engine orders during the year.

Demand remained especially strong for Airbus widebody engine platforms. Rolls-Royce booked 226 orders for the Trent XWB-97, which powers the Airbus A350-1000, and 212 orders for the Trent 7000, used on the Airbus A330neo. These orders support long-term visibility for high-value engine production and aftermarket services.

The company expects 550-600 total original equipment deliveries in 2026 and 1,480-1,550 total shop visits. Rolls-Royce also continues to improve engine durability. The second phase of high-pressure turbine blade improvements for the Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 was certified in December, while XWB-97 improvements remain on track for completion by the end of 2027.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rolls-Royce’s results show that aerospace demand remains strong, but production capacity is still constrained by the supply chain. For metals suppliers, the key signal is continued demand for nickel superalloys, titanium components, turbine blades, forgings, and repair materials tied to both new engines and aftermarket growth.

InP and GaN Wafer Supply Deal Strengthens Macom’s Compound Semiconductor Chain

Macom

InP and GaN wafer supply has become a strategic priority for Macom Technology Solutions as the US semiconductor manufacturer invests in UK-based compound semiconductor wafer supplier IQE. The investment secures long-term epitaxial wafer services and strengthens Macom’s access to materials used in photonics, defence, satellites and 5G telecom systems.

Macom has committed £45mn as part of an £81mn investor package for IQE. The financing includes £23mn of reinvestment from convertible loans and will allow IQE to repay debt while funding core technologies such as indium phosphide and gallium nitride.

InP and GaN wafer supply is increasingly important because both materials sit at the centre of high-performance semiconductor applications. Indium phosphide supports optical transmission and silicon photonics, while gallium nitride enables high-frequency, high-power radio frequency and defence electronics.

The investment also allows IQE to end its strategic review. The company had considered selling or spinning out operations in Taiwan and later examined a possible full sale of the business. Those discussions have now been terminated.

Macom Secures Materials for Photonics and Data Centres

Macom said it will sign long-term supply agreements with IQE across multiple epitaxial technologies. These agreements will support scalable, high-volume manufacturing and strengthen supply-chain resilience.

This matters because AI data centres are driving rapid growth in optical transmission technologies. As computing loads rise, data centres need faster and more energy-efficient data movement between chips, servers and racks.

Indium phosphide is a critical material for lasers and photonic components used in optical networks. It has become a key bottleneck as demand from AI infrastructure, cloud computing and high-speed communications accelerates.

Macom’s strategy includes expanding laser and silicon photonic-based optical transmission products. Long-term InP and GaN wafer supply from IQE gives the company more confidence as it scales these technologies.

IQE also benefits from the arrangement. The funding improves its balance sheet and gives the wafer supplier stronger customer visibility from an existing key customer.

For the compound semiconductor industry, the deal shows how customers are moving closer to upstream wafer suppliers. Securing epitaxial capacity is becoming as important as chip design when materials availability is tight.

GaN Demand Links Defence, Satellites and 5G

Gallium nitride is another core part of Macom’s growth strategy. GaN is used in radio frequency sensors, amplifiers and other components for defence, satellite and 5G telecom systems.

These applications require materials that can handle high power, high frequency and demanding operating conditions. GaN offers performance advantages over conventional silicon in several advanced RF and power applications.

Macom is also developing advanced GaN-on-silicon processes and installing new equipment to modernise and expand manufacturing capabilities. This points to a broader push to scale production while improving cost and process efficiency.

IQE’s manufacturing footprint gives the partnership wider supply-chain relevance. The company operates two sites in south Wales, a facility in Milton Keynes, four plants in the US and operations in Taiwan.

IQE expects revenue to grow by more than 20% in 2026. The company cited strong demand from AI and data-centre photonics, laser and wireless products for smartphones, and continued strength in aerospace and defence.

The transaction also gives Macom a governance role, as the company will join IQE’s board. This deepens the relationship from customer-supplier contracting into strategic influence.

InP and GaN wafer supply will remain critical as semiconductor demand becomes more materials-intensive. Data centres, defence electronics, satellites and telecom infrastructure all need reliable compound semiconductor capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Macom’s investment in IQE shows that semiconductor supply security is moving upstream into compound wafer materials. As AI data centres and defence RF systems expand, control over InP and GaN capacity will become a strategic advantage, not just a procurement issue.