Metal Futures Plunge Amid Rising Global Trade Tensions

LME

New US Tariffs and China's Retaliatory Measures Drive Sell-Off in Base Metals

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a significant decline on Friday as the global trade environment became more volatile. The new US tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions sparked concerns about a potential full-scale trade war and its implications for global economic growth. This turmoil led to a sharp sell-off not only in metals but also in global equities, oil prices, and the wider commodities market.

Market Reactions to US-China Trade Tensions

On April 5, 2025, the LME base metals complex dropped sharply, reflecting fears over a global economic slowdown. LME-traded base metals, although not directly impacted by the new tariffs, suffered as the potential growth impact on industries that rely on industrial metals became apparent. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets, particularly government bonds and gold, as fears of a global recession intensified.

China responded to the US tariffs by imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports, effective from April 10, 2025. Additionally, China announced measures including restrictions on rare earth exports and an investigation into DuPont’s Chinese subsidiary. These retaliatory actions further fueled concerns of escalating tensions between the two largest economies.

Sharp Declines in Key Base Metals

The turmoil hit key metals hard, with copper suffering a 5.74% drop on the LME, reaching $8,900 per metric tonne, a three-month low. Similarly, Comex copper fell by 8.83% to $4.402 per pound. Nickel, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin all saw significant losses, with the three-month LME nickel dropping 3.56%, aluminum falling 2.84%, and zinc slipping 2.84%. The declines reflected the broader uncertainty surrounding global trade and the implications for demand in sectors reliant on industrial metals.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened to 102.020, reflecting broader market instability. Despite a stronger-than-expected US employment report, the US dollar remained near its six-month low, further contributing to market volatility.

Global Equities and Oil Prices Under Pressure

Global equities mirrored the downturn in metals, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 5% by midday, marking its lowest point since last May. Stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe were also significantly impacted, with Japan’s Topix falling 4.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing 5.1% lower.

Oil markets also felt the pressure, with Brent crude dropping by 6.8% to $69.86 per barrel, and WTI falling by as much as 7.9% to $61.66 per barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices further compounded concerns of an economic slowdown, which has sent shockwaves through global markets.

US-India Trade Deal Could Reshape Energy, Metals, and Industrial Supply Chains

India, US energy

The US-India trade deal could become a major reset for energy, metals, and industrial supply chains. India has committed to buying $500bn of US energy commodities, coking coal, aircraft, precious metals, and technology products over five years. The agreement also includes planned US tariff relief for Indian imports. As a result, the US-India trade deal could deepen strategic trade ties between two major industrial economies.

This matters because the deal reaches far beyond consumer goods. It covers energy, aviation, metals, technology, and data-server components. These are the same sectors now shaping global manufacturing security. Therefore, the US-India trade deal looks like an industrial alignment package, not only a tariff adjustment.

The White House also plans to cut the general tariff on Indian imports to 18pc from 25pc. President Donald Trump separately removed an additional 25pc tariff tied to pressure over Russian crude imports. Consequently, US India tariff relief could improve India’s access to the American market while supporting broader trade normalization.

India US Energy Purchases Could Strengthen Strategic Trade Flows

India US energy purchases are the largest headline in the agreement. The $500bn commitment includes US energy commodities and coking coal, both important for India’s industrial growth. That could support long-term flows in LNG, oil, coal, and related energy trade. As a result, India may become an even more important demand center for US energy exporters.

The inclusion of coking coal is especially relevant for steel and infrastructure. India continues to expand its manufacturing and construction base. Secure access to metallurgical coal can support steel output and industrial investment. Therefore, India US energy purchases also carry implications for metals and infrastructure supply chains.

Tariff Relief Could Support Metals, Aircraft, and Technology Trade

US India tariff relief may open new opportunities across industrial categories. The US plans to remove tariffs on some aircraft and parts imported from India. It also plans relief for certain steel and copper imports. Consequently, Indian manufacturers could gain better access to US industrial buyers.

The agreement also includes a preferential tariff quota for Indian cars and auto parts. This could support India’s ambition to become a larger global automotive manufacturing hub. Meanwhile, India plans to reduce or eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods and many agricultural products. Therefore, the deal works in both directions, with each side seeking broader market access.

Data-server components add another important layer. Both countries committed to increasing trade in key products used to build data servers. That connects the agreement directly to AI infrastructure and digital supply chains. As a result, the US-India trade deal could support technology manufacturing as much as traditional commodity trade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement matters because it links trade policy with industrial strategy. Energy, coking coal, copper, steel, aircraft, and data-server components all sit inside the same strategic supply-chain conversation. If finalized as outlined, the deal could make US-India trade a stronger pillar of global industrial realignment.

Korea Zinc Tennessee Smelter Gains FAST-41 Support for Critical Minerals Refining

Korea Zinc

Korea Zinc Tennessee smelter plans have gained federal permitting support after the US Permitting Council added Project Crucible to FAST-41 coverage. The designation is intended to speed permitting for the proposed smelting and refining facility in Clarksville, Tennessee.

The Korea Zinc Tennessee smelter would produce 12 non-ferrous metals, including zinc, copper, lead, antimony, gallium and germanium. It would also produce semiconductor-grade sulfuric acid, making the project strategically relevant to metals, chemicals and semiconductor supply chains.

The Korea Zinc Tennessee smelter is significant because it would be the first large-scale domestic zinc refinery built in the US since the 1970s. It also reflects Washington’s effort to rebuild domestic refining capacity for critical minerals and reduce dependence on overseas processing.

Project Crucible is planned as a $7.4bn investment. Korea Zinc announced the project in December in a joint venture with the US commerce and defense departments after acquiring the adjacent East Tennessee and Mid Tennessee mining complexes and the Clarksville smelter from Trafigura-owned Nyrstar.

Project Crucible Targets a Multi-Metal Refining Gap

Project Crucible is designed to process 1.1mn t/yr of raw materials and produce 540,000 t/yr of finished products. Korea Zinc expects to source feedstock mainly from the US and other North American sources.

This feedstock strategy matters because the US has mine supply and scrap flows, but lacks enough large-scale refining and separation capacity for several strategic materials. Project Crucible could help close that midstream gap.

The product mix is especially important. Zinc, copper and lead provide scale, while antimony, gallium and germanium add critical minerals value.

Gallium and germanium are strategically sensitive because they are used in semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems, defence electronics and advanced manufacturing. Antimony is also important for flame retardants, ammunition, lead alloys and military applications.

The facility’s semiconductor-grade sulfuric acid output adds another layer of industrial importance. High-purity sulfuric acid is a key chemical input for semiconductor manufacturing and advanced electronics.

Korea Zinc plans to base the facility on its Onsan smelter in South Korea. That gives the project an established technical reference point and strengthens its credibility as a complex multi-metal refining platform.

FAST-41 Status Supports US Industrial Supply Security

FAST-41 coverage gives Project Crucible a more coordinated federal permitting path. The Permitting Council also signed a memorandum of understanding with Tennessee to align federal and state permitting efforts.

The US Department of Defense will primarily oversee permitting for the project. That role underlines the national security importance of domestic critical minerals refining.

Korea Zinc expects construction to begin in 2027. Phased operations are scheduled to start in 2029 with zinc, lead and copper production.

Finished products are expected to move to US customers by rail. This gives the project a domestic logistics route and supports the broader goal of building mine-to-market North American supply chains.

The project fits a wider US strategy. Washington is trying to accelerate permitting, use defence-linked financing and support domestic refining capacity for materials used in semiconductors, defence, energy infrastructure and manufacturing.

For Korea Zinc, the project offers a major entry into US critical minerals processing. For the US, it provides a rare chance to add large-scale refining capacity across both base metals and strategic minor metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Project Crucible shows that the US critical minerals challenge is increasingly about refining, not only mining. If Korea Zinc can execute the Tennessee smelter on schedule, it could become one of the most important non-Chinese multi-metal refining assets in North America.

CAML Expands with Acquisition of Antler Copper Project via New World Deal

Central Asia Metals(CAML)

UK-Based Producer Enters US Market with Strategic Arizona Asset

Central Asia Metals (CAML) has acquired New World Resources for $119 million, marking a major expansion into the United States. The deal includes the Antler copper project in Arizona, which has been designated by U.S. officials as part of a critical minerals expedited permitting initiative. This strategic acquisition strengthens CAML’s copper portfolio and aligns with growing demand for domestically sourced critical minerals.

Antler Project Positioned for Fast-Tracked Development

The Antler copper project is expected to complete all permitting by Q1 2026 and start production in 2027. Once operational, the mine will deliver 16,400 tonnes of copper, 34,500 tonnes of zinc, and 3,600 tonnes of lead annually. CAML’s decision to acquire New World is largely driven by Antler’s inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals initiative, which accelerates the approval timeline for high-priority mining projects that support energy transition and national security objectives.

New World Resources

CAML Strengthens Global Base Metals Portfolio

CAML currently operates copper production in Kazakhstan, and zinc and lead operations in North Macedonia. In 2024, the company reported output of 13,439 tonnes of copper, 18,572 tonnes of zinc, and 26,617 tonnes of lead. With the Antler project, CAML enhances its geographic diversification and increases its exposure to U.S. base metals demand, while securing a project poised for regulatory and market tailwinds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CAML’s acquisition of New World marks a pivotal step into the North American critical minerals arena. The Antler project offers both scale and regulatory momentum, positioning CAML to benefit from U.S. policy support and long-term metals demand.

High-Purity Iron Plant Targets US Rare Earth Magnet Supply Gap

Hertha Metals

High-purity iron is emerging as a hidden bottleneck in the US rare earth magnet supply chain as new defense sourcing rules approach. Houston-based Hertha Metals plans to build a 10,000 t/yr plant in Texas to produce high-purity iron used in neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets.

The project targets a less visible vulnerability in magnet manufacturing. US policy has focused heavily on rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium, but NdFeB magnets also require high-purity iron. Hertha Metals says about 90% of this material is currently produced in China.

The timing is strategically important. Updated Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations are set to take effect on 1 January 2027, restricting Chinese-origin rare earth magnets and constituent materials in covered US defense systems. That rule could force defense contractors, magnet makers and upstream material suppliers to rebuild supply chains around non-China sources.

Hertha Metals plans to break ground later this summer. The company says its Texas plant will become the first domestic producer of high-purity iron for this application, positioning the project at the intersection of magnet security, steelmaking technology and US industrial policy.

DFARS Rules Put Magnet Inputs Under Supply Chain Pressure

The 2027 DFARS deadline changes the strategic value of upstream magnet materials. Compliance will not depend only on where final magnets are assembled. It will also depend on the origin of constituent materials used in defense-related systems.

This creates a direct opportunity for domestic high-purity iron. NdFeB magnets require neodymium, praseodymium and often dysprosium or terbium for performance, but iron remains the major base component. If high-purity iron remains China-dependent, US magnet supply chains could still face compliance risk even if rare earth oxides or metals are sourced elsewhere.

Hertha Metals is trying to address that gap with its FLEXHERS process, short for flexible fuel hydrogen electric reduction smelting. The process combines electric arc furnace technology with natural gas or hydrogen to produce iron and steel.

The company says the technology can use lower-grade ores and iron ore fines that are difficult to process economically through conventional blast furnace routes. This could widen the domestic feedstock base and reduce dependence on imported high-purity iron.

Hertha currently operates a one-tonne-per-day demonstration plant in Conroe, Texas. It describes the site as the largest demonstration-scale single-step steelmaking facility in the US. Ore is sourced domestically from Minnesota, and the pilot facility is already producing material that meets customer specifications.

The planned high-purity iron facility will also produce trial steel products. Hertha sees the project as a stepping stone toward broader iron and steelmaking capacity, with a target of reaching roughly 500,000 t/yr of production within four to five years.

Cost competitiveness will be critical. Hertha says it does not plan to rely on a domestic supply premium. Instead, it aims to compete economically by replacing metallurgical coal with natural gas and electricity while using lower-cost ore feedstocks.

This claim matters because strategic materials projects often struggle when policy support is stronger than market economics. If Hertha can produce competitively without relying on premium pricing, the company could build a more durable position in both defense and commercial supply chains.

Hertha Metals CEO Laureen Meroueh

Domestic Iron Production Links Magnets, Electrical Steel and Clean Manufacturing

High-purity iron has strategic importance beyond NdFeB magnets. The material can also support electrical steel used in transformers, electric vehicle motors and other electromagnetic applications. These sectors are becoming more important as grid investment, electrification and domestic manufacturing policy expand.

The project also fits a wider shift in iron and steel markets. Traditional blast furnace production depends heavily on metallurgical coal and higher-emission processing routes. Meanwhile, demand for higher-grade iron inputs suitable for lower-carbon steelmaking is expected to rise as producers shift toward cleaner technologies.

Hertha’s process aims to sit inside that transition. By using electricity, natural gas or hydrogen, the company is positioning FLEXHERS as a lower-carbon alternative to legacy ironmaking. The ability to process lower-grade ore and fines could also help revive domestic iron production without requiring only premium feedstocks.

The US steel industry has increasingly focused on scrap-fed electric arc furnaces. That model supports recycling and lower emissions, but it does not fully solve domestic iron supply for high-purity applications. Magnets, electrical steel and advanced components often need controlled chemistry that scrap alone cannot easily provide.

This is where Hertha’s strategy becomes industrially relevant. The company is not only proposing another steel plant. It is targeting a specific materials gap between critical minerals policy, rare earth magnet manufacturing and advanced steelmaking.

Competition from subsidized overseas producers remains a risk. Hertha says it can compete on cost, but Chinese industrial support and below-cost exports could still challenge domestic producers. This is why policy, procurement rules and long-term customer commitments may become important even if the production technology works.

The company has not disclosed financing details, future fundraising plans or offtake agreements. That leaves open questions about capital structure, customer readiness and the pace of commercial scale-up. However, the 2027 DFARS deadline gives the project a clear market catalyst.

The broader implication is that rare earth magnet supply security cannot be solved by rare earth mining alone. The full chain includes ore, separation, metal conversion, alloying, magnet manufacturing and supporting inputs such as high-purity iron. Any weak link can create dependence.

Hertha Metals is betting that the next phase of US critical materials policy will recognise that reality. If the company can scale production, secure customers and maintain cost discipline, high-purity iron could become a small but essential piece of the domestic magnet supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hertha Metals highlights a critical point often missed in rare earth policy: magnet security depends on more than rare earths. High-purity iron, electrical steel and alloy inputs will become strategic materials if US defense and electrification supply chains must move away from China.

Global Recycled Metals Output Rises as China and Emerging Regions Expand Capacity

Recycled Metals

Global recycled metals output increased further in 2025 as China maintained its leading position and emerging regions expanded recycling capacity. Production of recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc reached about 59.2mn t, up 5.6% from a year earlier.

Global recycled metals output is becoming more important to non-ferrous supply security as mining, processing and trade flows face rising geopolitical and cost pressures. Recycling now provides a larger secondary source of industrial metal units for manufacturers, smelters and battery supply chains.

Global recycled metals output accounted for around 34% of total non-ferrous metal production in 2025. The sector also delivered cumulative savings of about 1.2bn t of primary mineral resources, underlining its growing role in resource conservation.

The growth shows that recycled metals are no longer a secondary environmental story. They are becoming a core part of industrial raw material strategy across copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and battery metals.

China Leads as Regional Recycling Capacity Expands

China remained the world’s largest recycled base metals producer in 2025, with output of 20.57mn t. That represented 34.7% of global production.

The country’s scale gives it a major role in recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc supply. It also strengthens China’s position across non-ferrous metals at a time when primary raw material security is under pressure.

Europe produced more than 10mn t of recycled base metals, while the US produced more than 6mn t. India and southeast Asia reached around 6mn t and 4mn t, respectively.

These figures show that recycling capacity is becoming more geographically distributed. Emerging regions are no longer only consumers of recycled raw materials. They are becoming processing centres in their own right.

Battery-related recycling is also growing quickly. Nickel, cobalt and lithium recovery is supporting the new energy industry as electric vehicle and energy storage supply chains look for more secure material sources.

China aims to increase domestic recycled material recovery to 23mn t by 2030 under its next five-year plan. That target implies annual growth of around 7%.

The country is also expected to strengthen recycled product certification and explore the inclusion of recycled materials in carbon trading systems. This could make recycled metal more valuable for customers seeking traceable and lower-carbon supply.

Trade Flows and Technology Move Toward Asia

Global recycled raw material trade is becoming more regional, more Asia-focused and more diversified. Europe and North America remain major exporters of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock.

Europe exports around 2mn t/yr of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock, while North America exports about 4.2mn t/yr. China and India remain the largest importers, with imports exceeding 4mn t and 2mn t, respectively.

Southeast Asia is becoming a key transshipment hub. Regional recycled aluminium feedstock trade reached about 1.3mn t of imports and 900,000t of exports.

Black mass from spent lithium-ion batteries is also increasingly moving toward Asian processing centres. This reflects Asia’s stronger battery materials processing base and growing demand for recovered nickel, cobalt and lithium units.

Technology is improving the recycling value chain. Advances in laser sorting, intelligent dismantling, multi-metal battery recovery and digital process control are raising recovery rates and product quality.

Leading producers have achieved recycling rates above 94% for aluminium and 95% for lithium. These levels show how recycling is moving closer to industrial-grade resource recovery rather than simple scrap handling.

New products are also expanding. High-strength recycled aluminium alloys, high-purity recycled copper and recycled rare-earth permanent magnets are gaining traction.

This matters because recycled metal must meet customer specifications before it can displace primary material. Better sorting, cleaner chemistry and stronger certification will determine how much recycled metal can enter high-value applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recycling is becoming a strategic metals supply pillar, not just a sustainability tool. The next competitive edge will come from producers that can turn complex scrap and battery waste into certified, high-purity and customer-ready materials.

Critical Metals rare earth offtake strengthens US magnet supply chain

REalloys

The new Critical Metals rare earth offtake with REalloys signals a decisive shift in North American magnet sourcing. Under the agreement, Critical Metals will allocate 15pc of its heavy and medium rare earth feedstock from the Tanbreez project in Greenland. The Critical Metals rare earth offtake could total up to 6.8mn t of concentrates over the multi-year term. This volume will give REalloys a steady pipeline of rare earth concentrates for downstream refining in the US. REalloys will process the feedstock at its Euclid, Ohio facility, which already supplies rare earth magnet materials and alloys into defence and industrial markets. The company is a supplier to the US Defense Logistics Agency, linking Tanbreez material directly to strategic US security needs. As a result, the Critical Metals rare earth offtake strengthens the emerging US effort to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supply.

US rare earth ecosystem deepens through multi-partner strategy

The agreement with REalloys comes on top of Critical Metals’ earlier deal with Canadian processor Ucore Rare Metals. That arrangement secures 10pc of Tanbreez rare earth feedstock for Ucore’s processing capacity. Together, these staged allocations show how Critical Metals is spreading Tanbreez output across multiple North American processors. This reduces single-buyer risk while helping regional refiners lock in secure feedstock. Meanwhile, both REalloys and Ucore can plan investments in separation, alloying and magnet metal capabilities with greater confidence. The Tanbreez deposit’s mix of heavy and medium rare earths is especially important for high-performan`ce magnets. These include defence platforms, electric vehicles, wind turbines and advanced industrial equipment where supply security is now a board-level concern. If project execution proceeds as planned, the Critical Metals rare earth offtake framework could become a reference model for future mine-to-magnet partnerships.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Critical Metals is quietly building a de-risked customer base even before Tanbreez reaches full production, which is a smart move in a volatile price environment. By locking in offtake with both REalloys and Ucore, the company positions Tanbreez as a backbone asset in a broader North American rare earths ecosystem rather than a standalone mine. The key questions now are project timing, permitting and capital discipline, all of which will determine how quickly this strategic feedstock can translate into real magnet capacity.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.

DOD Stake in Trilogy Metals: US Backs Alaska Copper and Critical Minerals

White House: Alaska mining

The DOD stake in Trilogy Metals marks a strategic US move into Alaska’s Upper Kobuk Minerals Projects. The DOD stake in Trilogy Metals brings $35.6mn to advance copper, zinc, lead, and cobalt resources. As a result, the DOD stake in Trilogy Metals aligns defense supply chains with domestic critical mineral development.

Why the deal matters for US critical minerals

The US Department of Defense will buy 10pc of Trilogy Metals. The purchase includes 16.4mn shares and a 10-year call option. South32 will transfer its option and sell part of its holding. The DOD may appoint a board director for three years. This structure strengthens governance and long-term offtake optionality. It also signals federal intent to accelerate strategic metals projects.

Path to development: UKMP and Ambler Access road

The UKMP sits in Alaska’s Ambler mining district. Trilogy and South32 jointly own Ambler Metals. The partners and Washington will coordinate on permitting and financing. They will also pursue expedited mine approvals. The Ambler Access road would link the district to the Dalton Highway. That logistics link remains the key unlock for project economics.

Copper focus with multi-metal upside

Copper leads the project’s value proposition. However, zinc, lead, and cobalt add revenue diversity. US policy now prioritizes resilient energy transition supply chains. This deal connects that policy to on-the-ground execution. It also broadens capital access for US-anchored base-metal assets. The DOD investment reduces perceived permitting risk for lenders.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Defense participation de-risks early-stage funding and accelerates timelines. If the Ambler Access road advances, project financing options should multiply. Expect midstream talks on concentrates and potential US refining routes to follow.

Sibanye PGM Production Rises in South Africa as US Output Falls

Sibanye

Sibanye PGM production improved in South Africa during the first quarter, but the company’s US mine output weakened because of lower production quality at East Boulder. The mixed result highlights the company’s uneven exposure across primary mining, recycling, zinc and lithium.

Sibanye PGM production in South Africa rose by 2% year on year to 383,241oz of 4E metals, covering platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold. Growth projects supported the increase and helped keep the company on track with its full-year guidance.

Sibanye PGM production in the US moved in the opposite direction. Output of 2E metals, covering platinum and palladium, fell by 5% to 68,386oz, with regular production expected to resume by the end of June.

The company maintained full-year guidance for both regions. South African operations are expected to produce 1.65mn-1.75mn oz, while US operations remain guided at 280,000-300,000oz.

South African Growth Offsets US Mine Weakness

Sibanye’s South African PGM operations remain the stronger side of the portfolio. The 2% increase in first-quarter output shows that ongoing growth projects are helping offset broader pressure across the PGM sector.

This matters because South Africa remains the world’s most important primary PGM supply base. Stable output from large producers supports automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies, chemicals, electronics and industrial applications.

The US Stillwater operations faced a weaker quarter. Lower production quality at East Boulder reduced output, although Sibanye expects normal production to return by the end of June.

The US decline is important because North American primary PGM supply is limited. Any disruption at Stillwater assets can affect regional availability of palladium and platinum, especially for customers seeking non-Russian and traceable supply.

Recycling helped offset the weaker US mine performance. Sibanye’s US recycled PGM output rose by 50% to 107,597oz, supported by better optimisation of material flows.

That increase reinforces the strategic value of secondary supply. PGM recycling can provide flexible metal units when mine output is uneven, while also supporting lower-carbon and circular supply chains.

Zinc Weakness and Keliber Progress Broaden the Portfolio Story

Sibanye’s Australian Century zinc operation produced 20,000t in the first quarter, down by 25,000t from a year earlier. Above-average rainfall reduced capacity and operating flexibility at the zinc operation.

The decline shows the weather sensitivity of tailings and zinc operations. Heavy rainfall can affect mining rates, processing efficiency, transport and operating continuity.

Century’s weaker output also matters because zinc remains important for galvanizing steel, infrastructure, construction, die casting and industrial manufacturing. Lower production from a major operation can tighten regional supply if weather disruption persists.

Meanwhile, Sibanye’s Keliber lithium project in Finland reached full completion during the first quarter. The first mining blast took place at the Syvajarvi mine in February.

Keliber gives Sibanye a strategic entry into Europe’s lithium supply chain. The project connects the company to battery materials demand and supports Europe’s effort to build more domestic critical mineral capacity.

Sibanye’s portfolio is therefore becoming more diversified. PGMs remain the core earnings and strategic base, but recycling, zinc and lithium all add exposure to different industrial cycles.

The first-quarter results show the benefits and risks of that structure. South African PGMs and US recycling improved, US mine output weakened, zinc suffered weather disruption, and lithium moved closer to future production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sibanye’s quarter shows why diversified metals exposure can protect a company from single-asset weakness, but also adds execution complexity. The strongest strategic signal is the rise in recycled PGM output, which could become increasingly valuable as customers seek secure and lower-carbon platinum and palladium supply.

US Antimony capital raise funds growth in critical minerals

US Antimony

US Antimony capital raise plans signal an aggressive push into the US critical minerals supply chain. The company aims to secure $25mn by selling around 2.4mn shares to a mutual fund, adding to substantial capital injections in August and earlier this month. As a result, the US Antimony capital raise will underpin inventory expansion, smelting upgrades and potential acquisitions at a pivotal moment for US defence-focused metals.

US Antimony capital raise supports defence stockpile and smelter expansion

The US Antimony capital raise directly supports its five-year, fixed-price contract with the US Defense Logistics Agency. The firm plans to use proceeds to acquire additional antimony inventory and expand existing leaseholds in Alaska and Montana, reinforcing upstream security of supply. At the same time, management will expand the Madero smelter in Mexico and evaluate acquisitions of other critical minerals companies. Together, these steps align with Washington’s push to localise and friend-shore strategic metal supply chains.

Meanwhile, the latest equity deal follows roughly $18mn raised in August and nearly $26.3mn earlier this month. This rapid sequence of financings shows investors are willing to back a scale-up strategy anchored by long-term government demand. It also gives US Antimony flexibility to deploy capital across mining, processing and potential M&A rather than relying on a single asset bet.

Building a vertically aligned US antimony supply chain

US Antimony has positioned itself at the heart of efforts to rebuild a fully integrated US antimony supply chain. The DLA contract, worth up to $245mn over five years, provides predictable offtake for antimony ingots headed into the national defence stockpile. Therefore, the US Antimony capital raise can be viewed as growth equity tied to a visible revenue base rather than speculative greenfield risk.

However, execution risks remain around smelter expansion, permitting and integrating any acquired critical minerals businesses. The company must also navigate volatile antimony prices and competing capital needs across Alaska, Montana and Mexico. Even so, a reinforced balance sheet and contracted government demand leave US Antimony better placed than many peers to weather market cycles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US Antimony’s latest capital raise underlines how defence-linked offtake can unlock substantial private funding for critical minerals. If management successfully converts this cash into reliable mine-to-ingot capacity, the company could become a cornerstone of US antimony security. For other strategic metals developers, the model highlights the value of long-dated government contracts in de-risking large equity raises.

Blue Moon tungsten project revives Nevada’s Springer critical metals hub

Blue Moon Metals

Blue Moon tungsten project ambitions are advancing with the planned acquisition of Nevada’s historic Springer mine and mill. The Blue Moon tungsten project will give the Canadian producer a ready-built processing base in Pershing County, focused on high-grade tungsten. As a result, the Blue Moon tungsten project positions the company inside the US critical minerals value chain at a time of rising strategic demand.

Blue Moon tungsten project anchors US strategic tungsten capacity

The Springer mine holds an indicated resource of 355,000t at 0.537pc tungsten trioxide. This grade underpins the Blue Moon tungsten project and offers meaningful scale for a niche metal. However, the strategic value extends far beyond ore tonnage, because the site already includes a tungsten-focused processing circuit.

The existing mill can process about 1,200 t/d of tungsten concentrates and ammonium paratungstate (APT). Therefore, the Blue Moon tungsten project inherits not only ore but also midstream capability, shortening the development timeline. In a tight tungsten market, having integrated mine and APT capacity in Nevada strengthens US supply security.

Springer mill opens multi-metal pathway for Blue Moon

The Springer mill can be modified to treat other critical metals, creating optionality for Blue Moon. The company has flagged its Blue Moon zinc-copper mine in California as a potential feedstock source. As a result, Springer could evolve into a regional hub for underground critical metals mines in the western US.

By paying $500,000 for exclusive rights, Blue Moon secured a low-cost entry into an existing asset base. Meanwhile, the ability to adapt the mill for multiple products could improve project economics and risk diversification. This flexibility will matter if tungsten prices fluctuate or if demand for other critical metals accelerates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Turning Springer into a multi-metal critical minerals hub would give Blue Moon leverage far beyond tungsten alone. The key question is whether the company can finance refurbishment and secure steady feedstock flows quickly enough to capture strategic premiums. If executed well, this could become a template for repurposing legacy US assets into modern critical metals platforms.

NAS Stainless Mill Expansion Strengthens Acerinox’s US Growth Strategy

Acerinox

NAS stainless mill expansion has started operations, giving Acerinox a stronger production base in the US stainless steel market. The Spanish stainless steel and high-performance alloys producer said the expansion at North American Stainless in Kentucky began at the start of 2026.

NAS stainless mill expansion will add 308,000 short tons per year of capacity. This lifts the mill’s annual run rate to 1.85mn short tons from its previous 1.54mn st/yr base.

NAS stainless mill expansion had been delayed from the end of 2025 because of crane repair and revamp work at the site. The start-up now gives Acerinox more exposure to a US market it sees as more stable and attractive than Europe.

The project reinforces Acerinox’s investment preference. The company said US finished stainless base prices have been more stable than European prices, which remain affected by severe swings and the historic lows reached in mid-2023.

US Stainless Market Shows Signs of Recovery

US apparent finished stainless demand fell by 11% year on year in the first quarter. However, demand improved by 5% from the previous quarter, supporting Acerinox’s view that US orders have recently strengthened.

US stainless inventories are now 7% below the historical average and appear stabilised. Deliveries have also grown in recent months, suggesting that the market may be moving beyond the weakest part of the cycle.

North American Stainless operated at an 80% utilisation rate in the quarter, excluding the new expansion. That implies quarterly stainless production of around 308,000st.

The expansion gives Acerinox more leverage if US demand continues to recover. Higher capacity at NAS can support customers in appliances, construction, automotive, energy, industrial equipment and infrastructure applications.

The US market also offers a more attractive pricing environment for Acerinox. Compared with Europe, where stainless producers have faced deeper price volatility, the US provides a clearer platform for investment and margin stability.

Aerospace and Gas Turbines Support High-Performance Alloy Outlook

Acerinox’s high-performance alloys division faced weaker demand from oil and gas and chemical processing customers. Geopolitical uncertainty has slowed investment in those sectors, reducing near-term demand for specialty alloys.

However, the company expects stronger aerospace demand to support Haynes International, a key part of its high-performance alloys business. Aerospace remains an important market for nickel-based and specialty alloys used in engines, structures and high-temperature components.

Industrial gas turbines are another potential growth driver. Demand from AI data centres could support turbine investment as power infrastructure becomes a bottleneck for digital expansion.

This matters because AI data centres require reliable electricity, backup generation and grid reinforcement. That can increase demand for high-temperature alloys used in turbine blades, combustion systems and other demanding energy equipment.

Acerinox’s strategy now has two clear pillars. It is expanding stainless capacity in the US through NAS while positioning high-performance alloys around aerospace and energy infrastructure growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox is using the US market as its growth anchor because stainless pricing and demand visibility remain stronger than in Europe. The NAS expansion also shows how specialty metals producers are aligning investment with aerospace, data-centre power demand and more resilient regional markets.

Gold Investor Base Shift Signals Broader Move Into Hard Assets

Gold

Gold investor base expansion is becoming a wider signal for how capital may move across physical assets, including industrial metals. Speakers at the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne said central bank buying, tokenised products and tighter traceability standards are changing the structure of the gold market.

Gold investor base growth is no longer driven only by traditional bullion buyers. Central banks, institutional investors and digital channels are bringing new liquidity, broader access and stronger strategic demand into the market.

Gold investor base changes also matter beyond precious metals. They show that investors are increasingly looking for hard assets that can act as stores of value in a fragmented geopolitical and monetary environment.

The LBMA official gold price AM fell to $4,679.80/oz on 24 April from a record $5,501.70/oz on 29 January. But speakers said the pullback does not weaken the structural case for gold as a long-term diversifier.

Central Banks and Tokenised Products Broaden Demand

Central bank buying remains the clearest signal behind gold’s structural shift. Reserve managers are becoming more sensitive to concentration risk in US dollar assets as geopolitical alliances and monetary conditions change.

Gold offers central banks an asset without direct credit risk. It also supports reserve diversification at a time when inflation, debt debasement and currency risk are shaping long-term allocation decisions.

This trend is especially visible in emerging markets. Adding domestically sourced gold to reserves can support national balance sheets while reducing dependence on foreign reserve assets.

New financial channels are also expanding access. Tokenised gold and gold-backed digital products are attracting investors who may not have entered traditional bullion markets.

Stablecoin issuer Tether has emerged as a significant physical buyer over the past 18 months, adding a new category of demand alongside central banks and institutional investors.

This matters because easier access can change market behaviour. When physical gold becomes more liquid through digital channels, its investor base can expand faster than traditional vault, bullion and exchange-traded routes would allow.

For industrial metals, the signal is important. Copper, aluminium, rare earths, gallium, germanium and other strategic materials are also becoming policy-linked assets as governments and investors focus on supply security.

Gold may therefore offer an early example of how geopolitical risk, capital flows and physical asset ownership can reinforce one another.

Traceability Becomes Essential as Physical Demand Rises

Broader gold market participation also raises the importance of standards. Higher prices can make illicit flows more attractive and increase the risk of laundering through recycled or poorly documented material.

This creates pressure for stronger traceability, refining standards and chain-of-custody systems. Buyers and regulators increasingly want to know where metal comes from, how it was produced and whether it meets responsible sourcing requirements.

The market is moving from gold of unknown origin toward gold of known origin. That transition will require transparency, technology and stricter documentation across refining and recycling routes.

The issue is especially important for artisanal and small-scale mining supply. These flows can be difficult to document, but they remain important in many producing regions.

The same traceability logic is moving into industrial metals. Strategic stockpiling, defence procurement, battery regulations and critical minerals policies are making origin and documentation more important across supply chains.

For metals markets, this means physical assets are becoming more valuable, but also more scrutinised. Capital wants exposure to hard assets, while buyers and regulators want cleaner provenance.

That combination could reshape commodity markets. The winners will be suppliers that can provide not only material, but also verified origin, reliable custody and trusted compliance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gold’s changing investor base shows that hard assets are becoming strategic financial instruments again. For industrial metals, the lesson is clear: capital will flow toward physical scarcity, but only trusted and traceable supply will command the strongest premium.

US Magnesium bankruptcy exposes fragility in US primary magnesium supply

US Magnesium

The US Magnesium bankruptcy marks a major blow to US primary magnesium supply. Filed under Chapter 11 in Delaware, the US Magnesium bankruptcy covers an estimated $100mn–500mn in liabilities. The US Magnesium bankruptcy follows legal rulings over failed deliveries to Kaiser Aluminum Warrick. As a result, the collapse threatens domestic supply from America’s only commercial-scale primary magnesium producer.

Court ruling and force majeure set stage for US Magnesium bankruptcy

A recent court ruling played a central role in triggering the US Magnesium bankruptcy. In August, a court ordered US Magnesium to reimburse Kaiser Aluminum Warrick $55mn for higher magnesium costs. The award included an additional $12.9mn in interest linked to missed contractual deliveries. However, the operational stress began earlier, when US Magnesium declared force majeure in September 2021. That decision later forced Kaiser to declare force majeure at its Warrick rolling mill in July 2022.

These cascading disruptions reveal how concentrated the US magnesium supply chain had become. When the sole producer faltered, downstream rolling and alloy operations had few alternative sources. Therefore, contractual penalties and higher replacement costs quickly translated into mounting financial liabilities.

US Magnesium bankruptcy leaves strategic gap in domestic supply

The US Magnesium bankruptcy removes America’s only commercial-scale primary magnesium producer from the market, at least temporarily. US Magnesium produced primary metal, lithium carbonate and other chemical products from Great Salt Lake brines. Its closure risks deeper import dependence for lightweight alloys used in automotive, aerospace and defense. Meanwhile, lithium carbonate and specialty chemical customers must now reassess sourcing and inventory strategies.

US policymakers have highlighted magnesium as a critical input for aluminum rolling and casting. However, domestic primary capacity now effectively sits in Chapter 11 restructuring. As a result, buyers will lean harder on imports, potentially from jurisdictions with higher geopolitical or ESG risk. Price volatility could increase if logistics disruptions or trade measures limit available supply.

The bankruptcy process may ultimately restructure US Magnesium rather than eliminate the asset base entirely. Creditors and potential buyers will evaluate whether operations at the Great Salt Lake remain economically viable. Therefore, the Chapter 11 outcome will shape how quickly any domestic primary magnesium capacity can return.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US Magnesium’s collapse highlights the risks of single-point dependence for metals with specialised production routes. For aluminum producers and alloy users, diversifying supply and investing in recycling now look less optional and more urgent. Investors should also note how legal liabilities from failed deliveries can cascade into full-scale restructuring when markets tighten.

First Solar new US facility underpins US solar manufacturing expansion

First Solar

First Solar new US facility plans highlight the company’s confidence in sustained US solar demand and manufacturing growth. The US module producer will start production at the new plant in late 2026, ramping through 2027. As a result, First Solar new US facility strategy strengthens domestic capacity while responding to record sales and a deep project backlog.

Record volumes support First Solar new US facility decision

First Solar saw record third-quarter sales volumes of 5.3GW, up from 3GW a year earlier. The company grew quarterly revenue by 80pc to $1.6bn, driven mainly by higher module volumes sold to third parties. Therefore, the First Solar new US facility arrives on top of strong commercial momentum, not as a speculative bet.

However, near-term guidance reflects some demand and supply friction. First Solar cut its 2025 sales outlook to 16.7-17.4GW after terminating 6.6GW of bookings with BP Solar. The company also faced a temporary glass shortage at its Alabama plant, which reduced expected output. Even so, a contracted backlog of 53.7GW, valued at $16.4bn, underpins visibility for the First Solar new US facility and other expansions.

US capacity ramps while overseas output adjusts

First Solar continued to shift its production footprint toward the US during the quarter. Of the 3.6GW of modules produced, 2.5GW came from US facilities, despite the Alabama disruption. Meanwhile, the Louisiana plant moved slightly ahead of schedule, with qualification runs already started and first shipments expected in the fourth quarter.

The company trimmed production in Malaysia and Vietnam, reflecting lower demand after the BP Solar contract termination. This adjustment frees capacity and capital for higher-value domestic manufacturing, including the First Solar new US facility. As a result, First Solar is progressively aligning its manufacturing base with US policy support for local content and resilient solar supply chains.

Profitability strengthened alongside the operating shifts. Third-quarter profit rose to $456mn, up 33pc year on year, despite input challenges. The combination of robust margins, a long-dated backlog and policy tailwinds provides a solid financial platform to fund the new US plant and future technology upgrades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Solar’s latest move confirms that utility-scale solar manufacturing in the US is entering a scale-up phase, not just a reshoring experiment. The First Solar new US facility also illustrates how project cancellations and local bottlenecks can coexist with long-term growth in grid-scale solar demand. For metals and glass suppliers, the company’s deeper US footprint signals sustained structural demand for high-performance materials in North American solar value chains.

Korea Zinc US Assets Deal Secures America’s Only Primary Zinc Smelter

Korea Zinc

Korea Zinc US assets expansion has advanced after Nyrstar sold its East Tennessee and Mid Tennessee mining complexes and the Clarksville smelter to the South Korean metals producer. The transaction gives Korea Zinc direct control of key zinc mining and smelting infrastructure in the US.

The sale was first announced in December and was completed after regulatory and governmental approvals. Financial details were not disclosed.

Korea Zinc US assets now include the Clarksville smelter, which Nyrstar described as the only primary zinc smelter in the US. That makes the transaction strategically important for domestic zinc supply, industrial resilience and future non-ferrous processing capacity.

Clarksville Smelter Strengthens Domestic Zinc Supply

The Clarksville smelter gives Korea Zinc an established operating base in the US zinc market. Zinc remains essential for galvanizing steel, construction, infrastructure, automotive production, energy systems and manufacturing.

Trafigura will continue to sell Clarksville’s zinc metal and supply concentrate and oxide to the operation through the end of 2026. This transition arrangement should help maintain operational continuity while Korea Zinc prepares its broader investment strategy.

The Tennessee mining complexes also add upstream relevance. Control of mining assets and smelting infrastructure gives Korea Zinc a stronger position across feedstock access, processing and finished metal supply.

Korea Zinc Plans Larger Non-Ferrous Smelting Platform

Korea Zinc has already outlined a much larger US ambition. The company announced plans in December to build a $7.4bn smelter on the acquired, fully permitted sites through a joint venture with the US defense and commerce departments.

The planned facility would produce 13 non-ferrous products. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, followed by phased production from 2029, starting with zinc, lead and copper.

The new smelter is expected to process 1.1mn t/yr of raw materials and produce 540,000 t/yr of finished products. If delivered, the project would significantly expand US non-ferrous processing capacity and support domestic supply chains for strategic industrial metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Korea Zinc’s acquisition is more than a zinc transaction. It positions a major Asian smelter inside the US industrial base at a time when domestic processing capacity has become a strategic priority.

Nevada North Lithium Project Resource Growth Strengthens US Lithium Supply Potential

Nevada North Lithium Project has increased its measured and indicated resource base, improving the scale potential of one of the more closely watched US lithium development assets. Canadian developer Surge Battery Metals updated the project’s estimate to 6.7mn t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Nevada North Lithium Project now carries measured and indicated resources grading 3,820ppm lithium. That compares with 3.6mn t grading 4,016ppm in the project’s preliminary economic assessment.

Nevada North Lithium Project resource growth is strategically important because the US continues to seek domestic lithium supply for batteries, electric vehicles, energy storage and critical minerals security.

The project is jointly owned by Surge Battery Metals, with a 71% stake, and Evolution Mining, with 29%. Surge plans to deliver a comprehensive pre-feasibility study in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Larger Resource Base Improves Development Scale

The revised estimate shows a larger resource base, although the average lithium grade is slightly lower than in the preliminary economic assessment. That trade-off is common as projects expand and include broader mineralised zones.

The resource is constrained by an optimised pit shell based on a lithium carbonate equivalent price of $20,000/t. This assumption helps define what material could be economically considered under the current mine planning framework.

The increase to 6.7mn t of LCE improves the project’s strategic profile. Scale matters in lithium because battery supply chains need long-term, reliable and expandable sources of feedstock.

For Surge, the next milestone is the pre-feasibility study. That study will need to clarify mining design, processing route, capital cost, operating cost, recovery assumptions and permitting requirements.

Nevada North Li Project

US Lithium Projects Gain Momentum as Prices Improve

Recent lithium price increases are encouraging more exploration and development activity. Higher prices can improve project economics and attract financing, especially for assets in strategically important jurisdictions.

Nevada is already central to US lithium ambitions. The state offers domestic resource potential, established mining experience and proximity to battery and electric vehicle supply chains.

However, resource growth alone does not guarantee production. The project must still prove technical feasibility, commercial processing, environmental compliance and customer relevance.

The larger estimate gives Surge a stronger platform heading into the pre-feasibility stage. It also reinforces the wider US push to reduce dependence on imported lithium chemicals and battery raw materials.

If advanced successfully, Nevada North could become part of a more diversified North American lithium supply chain. Its value will depend on whether scale can translate into qualified, cost-competitive lithium production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Surge’s updated estimate strengthens Nevada North’s strategic relevance, but the real test now moves from resource size to development economics. US lithium security will depend on projects that can pass feasibility, permitting and processing hurdles, not only publish larger resource numbers.

Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal boosts US supply security

Lynas

The Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal aims to build a resilient US magnet supply chain. The partnership links a major Australian rare earths producer with a US downstream magnet maker at a time of intensifying geopolitical pressure around critical minerals. By structuring the Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal around both light and heavy rare earth supply, the companies target segments most exposed to Chinese dominance.

The agreement remains non-binding but already sets a strategic framework for cooperation. It covers rare earth feedstock supply, joint development of production plants and coordinated sales of finished magnets to US end-users. As a result, the Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal positions both parties to tap growing demand from electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence platforms and advanced electronics. Crucially, they also plan to work with US policymakers to ensure the emerging supply chain qualifies under national-interest and security frameworks.

US rare earth magnet deal builds on Texas processing investments

Lynas already plays a central role in US rare earth industrial policy. The company is building a Texas facility capable of processing 2,500-3,000 t/yr of heavy rare earths and 5,000 t/yr of light rare earths with US government backing. This plant will provide the upstream foundation needed for the Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal, anchoring critical materials processing on US soil rather than in China or Southeast Asia.

Meanwhile, Noveon brings established magnet design and production capabilities, plus direct relationships with US industrial and defence customers. Together, the companies can shorten the distance from mine to magnet, increasing traceability and compliance with US sourcing rules. However, real impact will depend on how quickly the Texas plant ramps up and how fast Noveon can translate material flows into scalable magnet production capacity.

Part of a wider US rare earths and magnet realignment

This agreement comes amid a wave of US-linked rare earth and magnet deals. ReElement Technologies recently partnered with South Korea’s Posco International to develop an integrated rare earth and magnet plant. USA Rare Earth also agreed to acquire UK-based Less Common Metals to support a proposed 5,000 t/yr magnet facility in Oklahoma. These moves, together with the Lynas Noveon rare earth magnet deal, form a multi-node ecosystem designed to reduce US dependence on Chinese rare earth supply chains.

However, building a fully competitive mine-to-magnet value chain in North America will take time. Investment needs remain high, permitting timelines are uncertain, and Chinese producers still enjoy scale advantages and deep customer relationships. As a result, near-term pricing power and market share will likely stay concentrated in Asia, even as Western projects gradually add redundancy and optionality. For end-users, the key benefit in the medium term may be greater diversification rather than immediate cost reductions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal underlines how rare earth strategy is shifting from isolated projects to networked partnerships spanning feedstock, processing and magnets. If Lynas and Noveon can execute on scale and cost, their alliance will become a cornerstone of a genuine US-aligned rare earth industrial base. For now, the real test lies in synchronising project delivery with rapidly evolving policy incentives and downstream demand.

US Gallium Recovery Projects Target Domestic Supply Chain for Defense and Semiconductors

DOE(The US Department of Energy)

US gallium recovery projects will receive $5.4mn in funding from the Department of Energy as Washington tries to rebuild domestic supply for a metal critical to defense systems, semiconductors and advanced electronics. The funding will support five US-based projects under the Technology for Recovery and Advanced Critical-material Extraction – Gallium initiative.

The TRACE-Ga initiative is designed to prototype technologies that can recover gallium from US metal-processing feedstocks. This is important because the US is fully import-reliant for gallium and has not produced the metal domestically since 1987.

US gallium recovery projects are gaining urgency because gallium is essential for compound semiconductor materials, including gallium nitride. These materials support power electronics, radio-frequency devices, radar systems, satellite communications, fast chargers, LEDs and other high-performance technologies.

The funding is modest in scale, but strategically important. It signals that the US is no longer focusing only on mining new critical minerals. It is also trying to recover strategic metals from industrial by-products, waste streams and existing processing networks.

TRACE-Ga Funding Targets Recovery From Existing Feedstocks

The DOE award will support five companies working on gallium recovery technologies. Participants include PHNX Materials, Atlantic Alumina Company, Found Energy, Kunin Technologies and Indium Corporation.

The selection of companies shows how broad the recovery opportunity could become. Gallium is not usually mined as a primary product. It is commonly recovered as a by-product from other industrial processes, especially alumina and zinc-related supply chains.

This makes gallium recovery different from conventional mining. The key challenge is not only finding deposits, but identifying feedstocks where gallium exists in recoverable concentrations and developing technologies that can extract it economically.

Industrial waste refiner PHNX Materials could support recovery from complex waste streams. Atlantic Alumina Company brings relevance to alumina-linked feedstock. Found Energy adds an aluminum-related industrial angle, while Kunin Technologies focuses on mineral by-product recovery. Indium Corporation brings downstream metals refining and manufacturing expertise.

The TRACE-Ga initiative therefore targets the middle of the supply chain. It seeks to bridge the gap between laboratory recovery methods and scalable domestic production.

That gap matters because gallium supply is highly concentrated. China dominates primary gallium production and has used export controls to increase pressure on global buyers. For US defense and semiconductor supply chains, reliance on foreign gallium has become a clear strategic risk.

Domestic recovery could help reduce that exposure. Even if early projects produce limited volumes, they can prove process routes, identify feedstock partners and create the technical base for larger recovery systems.

The use of US metal-processing feedstocks also fits a wider circular materials strategy. Instead of waiting for new mines, the US can extract critical materials from industrial streams already moving through domestic facilities.

This could make recovery faster than new primary production. However, it still requires technical success, feedstock security, refining capability and customer qualification.

Gallium Nitride Demand Raises Strategic Pressure

Gallium’s strategic value has increased because of its role in gallium nitride and other compound semiconductor materials. Gallium nitride is widely used where high power, high frequency, efficiency and heat performance matter.

These applications are highly relevant to defense and advanced electronics. Radar, communications systems, satellite technologies, power conversion equipment and semiconductor devices all rely on materials where gallium can be difficult to substitute.

The DOE’s TRACE-Ga funding also sits alongside a larger notice of funding opportunity of up to $69mn. That programme targets technologies and processes that advance domestic production and refining of critical materials, including gallium and gallium nitride for semiconductor applications.

This shows that Washington is building a layered funding strategy. TRACE-Ga supports recovery prototypes, while broader DOE programmes aim to scale refining, alloying and advanced material production.

For the semiconductor industry, domestic gallium supply is not only a raw material issue. It is connected to wafer production, epitaxy, device manufacturing, packaging and defense procurement. A shortage or export disruption at the gallium stage can move through the entire compound semiconductor chain.

This is why gallium recovery matters even if volumes are small at first. Strategic materials often have low tonnage but high consequence. A reliable domestic supply stream can reduce procurement risk for critical systems.

The challenge will be commercialisation. Recovery from waste and by-products can be technically complex because gallium concentrations may be low and feedstock chemistry can vary. Companies must prove that their processes can recover gallium consistently, meet purity requirements and operate at competitive cost.

The US also needs downstream refining capacity. Recovering gallium-bearing material is not enough if the material cannot be refined into forms suitable for semiconductor and defense applications.

The DOE funding is therefore best understood as an early-stage industrial rebuilding tool. It does not immediately solve US gallium dependence, but it helps create the technologies and partnerships needed to rebuild supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US gallium recovery projects show that critical mineral security increasingly depends on recovering by-products from existing industrial systems. The strategic test will be whether TRACE-Ga can move beyond prototypes and create reliable domestic feedstock for gallium nitride, defense electronics and semiconductor manufacturing.