Mitsubishi acquires 30pc of Hudbay’s Copper World project

Hudbay Minerals

Mitsubishi acquires 30pc of Hudbay’s Copper World project to secure long-term US copper. The deal injects $600mn and deepens strategic ties. As a result, Mitsubishi acquires 30pc of Hudbay’s Copper World project to strengthen supply amid energy-transition demand. Therefore, Mitsubishi acquires 30pc of Hudbay’s Copper World project with staged funding and near-term development visibility.

Deal terms and strategic fit

Mitsubishi will invest $600mn to join Hudbay in Arizona. The package includes $420mn for equity and $180mn within 18 months. The structure boosts liquidity ahead of construction decisions. Meanwhile, it aligns Mitsubishi with IRA-driven, North American copper growth. The partnership extends prior collaboration on Copper Mountain.

Project scale, permits, and market timing

Copper World holds final permits approved in January. Hudbay guides 85,000 t/yr of copper over 20 years. This output targets a tight refined market and grid investment needs. Additionally, US localization supports OEMs and cable producers seeking secure supply. The timing coincides with robust demand from EVs and transmission buildouts.

Supply-chain and financing implications

The venture diversifies US copper sources beyond Chile and Peru. It also advances offtake optionality for smelters and fabricators. With Mitsubishi capital committed, financing risk moderates. In turn, Hudbay can optimize capex, phasing, and procurement. Downstream buyers gain traceability, permitting clarity, and logistics advantages inside Arizona.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This transaction signals a new phase of strategic copper partnerships. Expect more pre-production equity deals as OEMs and traders chase bankable tonnage. Execution now hinges on cost control and timely ramp-up to capture price upside.

Mitsubishi cuts copper concentrate processing as TC/RCs squeeze margins

Mitsubishi Materials

Mitsubishi cuts copper concentrate processing to protect profitability at its Onahama smelter. Mitsubishi cuts copper concentrate processing after TC/RCs fall to historical lows. Mitsubishi cuts copper concentrate processing while raising recycled feed to stabilize returns.

Onahama output under review after autumn maintenance

Mitsubishi plans a partial suspension at Onahama following October–November maintenance. The site can produce 25,000 t/month of copper cathode. It also produces 550,000 t/yr of sulphuric acid. However, weaker treatment and refining charges have eroded smelter margins this year. The company will confirm revised cathode guidance once plans finalize.

Recyclables rise as TC/RCs pressure smelters

Mitsubishi will lift copper scrap usage to offset lower concentrate economics. The strategy reduces exposure to volatile TC/RCs and strengthens circular supply chains. Meanwhile, JX Advanced Metals signaled potential curbs at Pan Pacific Copper. Pan Pacific Copper has 650,000 t/yr refined capacity across Japan. JX also increased recycled inputs as concentrate processing profitability fell.

Global market dynamics complicate Japan’s response. Chinese smelters kept output stable despite low TC/RCs. Strong by-product credits and firm domestic demand supported operations. China’s refined copper production rose 9.5pc year on year in January–June. As a result, Japanese smelters face tougher competition and thinner margins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s pivot to scrap underscores a structural shift toward circular copper supply. Watch how higher scrap ratios, by-product pricing, and sulfuric acid demand reshape smelter economics. If TC/RCs stay weak, more Asian capacity may favor recycling over concentrate.

ERG Mitsubishi gallium supply deal reshapes Japan’s non-China sourcing strategy

ERG

ERG Mitsubishi gallium supply deal creates a new pathway for Japanese buyers outside China. Eurasian Resource Group signed a long-term supply agreement with Mitsubishi Corporation RtM. ERG Mitsubishi gallium supply deal matters because ERG plans first output in Kazakhstan in Q3 2026. Therefore, the deal strengthens supply chain resilience for gallium-dependent industries.

Kazakhstan gallium production will come from ERG’s Pavlodar Aluminium plant. ERG plans to recover gallium as a by-product of bauxite processing. The project targets up to 15 tonnes per year at full run-rate. However, ERG did not disclose committed tonnage to Mitsubishi.

Kazakhstan gallium production turns alumina refining into a critical minerals lever

Kazakhstan gallium production can scale faster than greenfield mining in many cases. Producers can extract gallium from Bayer process streams with dedicated circuits. This model can improve security for the semiconductor supply chain. As a result, refiners can monetize trace metals while serving strategic demand.

Mitsubishi can use the offtake to support qualification and downstream allocations. Trading houses often bridge producers and end-users during ramp-up. Meanwhile, buyers demand consistent purity, packaging, and delivery performance. Therefore, operational execution will decide how quickly volumes flow into Japan.

European gallium prices show how export controls transmit into markets

European gallium prices have surged as gallium export controls tighten global availability. China still dominates primary production and influences export approvals. China exported 62,615kg in January to November this year. That level rose 13% versus the same period in 2024. However, it fell 30% versus January to November 2022.

European gallium prices recently stood at $1,300–1,450/kg on a cif main airport basis. Prices rose 139% from the start of the year. Prices also jumped 299% from the start of China’s export controls in August 2023. Therefore, even small incremental non-China supply can move sentiment and premiums.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows how by-product projects can unlock strategic metals quickly. However, qualification risk can slow real deliveries even after first production. The winners will pair new supply with reliable specifications and transparent logistics.

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama Copper Plant Shutdown Signals Pressure on Japanese Smelting

Mitsubishi Materials

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant operations will be suspended by the end of March 2027 after rising costs, tougher concentrate terms, and overseas competition weakened profitability. The Japanese metals group decided on 25 March to close the site’s copper smelting and refining operations as part of a broader structural reform.

The Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant had already faced cost-cutting measures, including reduced copper concentrate processing and the suspension of certain processes. However, these steps failed to restore earnings as copper concentrate purchase terms deteriorated sharply.

The decision highlights the growing pressure on traditional copper smelters. When treatment and refining charges fall below zero, smelters effectively pay miners or traders to process concentrate, reversing the normal economics of the business.

Negative Treatment Charges Reshape Copper Smelting Economics

Copper concentrate treatment charges and refining charges have collapsed since January 2025, falling below $0/t and $0/lb on a cif China basis. The latest assessments stood at -$67/t and -$6.7/lb on 20 March, showing how tight concentrate supply and intense smelter competition have distorted processing margins.

This environment has become especially difficult for Japanese smelters, which face high operating costs and competition from larger overseas facilities. For Mitsubishi Materials, the Onahama operation could no longer secure profitability under these market conditions.

MMC expects to book an impairment loss of ¥21 billion, or about $132.5 million, in its January-March quarterly report. Most of that loss will be linked to fixed assets at the Onahama smelter and refinery.

E-Scrap and Secondary Smelting Become MMC’s Strategic Direction

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant closure is part of MMC’s policy of creating future growth through resource circulation. The company aims to expand secondary smelting operations that use electronic scrap and copper scrap as raw materials.

This shift reflects a broader industry trend. Copper producers are increasingly looking at recycled feedstock to reduce exposure to volatile concentrate markets, improve sustainability, and secure alternative metal units.

Not all Onahama operations will close. The electrolytic plant and facilities not directly tied to copper concentrate processing, including the precious group metals plant, will continue operating beyond the smelting and refining shutdown.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMC’s Onahama decision shows that copper smelting capacity is being reshaped by concentrate scarcity and recycling economics. Japan’s challenge is not only maintaining copper supply, but repositioning its metallurgical base toward scrap, e-scrap, and higher-value recovery.

Japanese Copper Concentrate Trading Integration Strengthens Pan Pacific Copper

Mitsubishi Materials

Japanese copper concentrate trading is set for consolidation after Mitsubishi Materials, JX Advanced Metals, Mitsui Kinzoku and Marubeni signed a final agreement to integrate Mitsubishi Materials’ concentrate procurement and related product sales into Pan Pacific Copper.

Japanese copper concentrate trading has become more challenging as persistently low treatment and refining charges pressure smelter margins. The integration is designed to give Pan Pacific Copper greater procurement scale, lower costs and a more flexible sales structure.

Japanese copper concentrate trading also carries wider supply-chain significance. Copper concentrate availability remains tight globally, while competition from overseas smelters has intensified pressure on Japanese operators.

The transaction is targeted for completion on 1 October 2026, subject to regulatory approvals, including clearance from Japan’s Fair Trade Commission.

Low TC/RCs Push Japanese Smelters Toward Scale

Low copper concentrate treatment and refining charges are the main driver behind the restructuring. When TC/RCs fall, smelters earn less from processing concentrate into refined copper, making scale and efficiency more important.

The deal will move Mitsubishi Materials copper concentrate purchasing operations and downstream sales into Pan Pacific Copper. These sales include copper cathodes, sulphuric acid and other by-products.

This is important because copper smelter profitability is no longer determined only by refined copper output. By-product sales, logistics efficiency, concentrate sourcing and customer portfolio management all affect margins.

Japanese smelters face a difficult operating environment. They must compete with large overseas smelters, secure reliable concentrate supply and manage weaker processing margins at the same time.

Consolidating procurement can improve bargaining power with miners and traders. It can also reduce duplication across buying teams, shipping arrangements and sales channels.

PPC Structure Strengthens Procurement and Sales Flexibility

The transaction will be carried out through a company split, with the target business transferred into Pan Pacific Copper and then placed under a newly established wholly owned PPC subsidiary.

After completion, PPC’s ownership will be restructured. JX will hold 32.5%, Mitsubishi Materials 32%, Mitsui Kinzoku 21.9% and Marubeni 13.6%.

PPC will become an equity-method affiliate of all four companies. That structure gives each partner exposure to the combined procurement and sales platform while preserving their broader corporate positions.

Mitsubishi Materials will also join JX Metal Smelting and Hibi Smelting as a subcontractor to PPC’s smelting and refining operations. This should deepen operational integration across the Japanese copper smelting network.

The deal gives PPC a larger concentrate procurement base and a broader sales portfolio. It should also help optimise cathode, sulphuric acid and by-product marketing.

For Japan, the integration is a defensive and strategic move. It protects copper smelting competitiveness in a market where concentrate supply is tight and processing margins are under pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows that Japanese copper smelters are responding to weak TC/RCs through consolidation rather than isolated cost cutting. In a tight concentrate market, procurement scale and by-product sales discipline may decide which smelters remain competitive.

MMC ReElement Rare-Earth Recycling Deal Strengthens Allied Supply Chains

MMC, ReElement

MMC ReElement rare-earth recycling plans mark another step in Japan’s effort to build resilient rare earth supply chains outside China. Mitsubishi Materials will invest in Indiana-based ReElement Technologies through preferred shares and collaborate on recycling rare earths from secondary sources.

The partnership will combine Mitsubishi Materials pretreatment and metal recovery capabilities with ReElement’s chromatography-based separation and purification technology. The companies aim to recover rare earths from home appliances, automotive parts and electronic scrap.

MMC ReElement rare-earth recycling is strategically important because recycling can reduce dependence on primary mining and imported separated rare earth products. It also gives Japan and North America another route to support domestic and allied manufacturing.

Chromatography Technology Targets High-Purity Rare Earth Recovery

ReElement’s technology uses proprietary chromatography-based processes to separate and purify rare earths. The company says the process can recover rare earths at purity above 99.5% and yield above 95%.

This matters because rare earth recycling is not simply a scrap collection business. The real challenge is separating complex mixed materials into high-purity products that can meet downstream specifications.

Mitsubishi Materials plans to apply the technology in North America and Japan. By integrating pretreatment, metal recovery, separation and purification, the companies could create a more complete recycling route for rare earth-bearing waste streams.

Japan and North America Build Circular Rare Earth Capacity

MMC ReElement rare-earth recycling cooperation fits a broader push to secure magnet and advanced materials supply chains. Rare earths recovered from appliances, automotive parts and electronic scrap could support manufacturing sectors that use motors, sensors, electronics and high-performance components.

The companies may also establish a joint venture to scale the model. That would move the relationship beyond financial investment and into deeper industrial collaboration.

For Mitsubishi Materials, the agreement supports its resource circulation strategy. For ReElement, the investment adds a major Japanese industrial partner with experience in metals processing and recycling.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMC ReElement rare-earth recycling shows that supply security is moving from mining projects into urban mining and advanced separation. The strongest model will combine scrap access, pretreatment know-how and high-purity separation technology into one scalable value chain.

Japan US Critical Minerals Cooperation Expands Into Deep-Sea Resources and Recycling

US, Japan critical minerals Cooperation

Japan US critical minerals cooperation is moving into a broader strategic phase as both countries seek more resilient supply chains for rare earths, copper, nickel, and battery materials. Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi and US president Donald Trump agreed to expand collaboration during a summit in Washington.

Japan US critical minerals cooperation now includes an initial agreement on deep-sea mineral development. The agreement covers resources such as rare earth-rich mud around Minamitorishima and manganese nodules, which could become alternative supply sources outside conventional land-based mining.

Japan US critical minerals cooperation also reflects a shared concern over China’s dominant position in rare earth separation and refining. Both governments are trying to combine Japanese technology, US regulatory frameworks, and private-sector investment to accelerate non-China supply options.

Deep-Sea Minerals Add a New Layer to Rare Earth Security

Deep-sea mineral development could become a strategic supply route for rare earths and other critical minerals. Japan has long studied rare earth-rich mud near Minamitorishima, while manganese nodules offer potential exposure to metals used in batteries, alloys, and advanced industrial systems.

The new working group between Japan’s trade and industry ministry Meti and the US Department of Commerce will focus on technical cooperation. This structure suggests both governments want to move beyond political statements and build practical project-level collaboration.

The industrial meaning is clear. Rare earth supply security depends not only on mining rights, but also on separation technology, environmental standards, financing, and downstream demand from magnets, EV motors, defense systems, and renewable energy equipment.

Recycling, Copper, and Nickel Projects Broaden the Supply Chain Agenda

The summit also highlighted private-sector initiatives that extend beyond deep-sea resources. Mitsubishi Materials is considering cooperation with ReElement Technologies on rare earth recycling in Indiana, targeting recovery from used magnets and other secondary sources.

This recycling angle is important because magnet scrap can become a strategic rare earth feedstock. It also reduces dependence on primary mining and supports a circular supply model for high-value elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

Mitsubishi is also advancing a feasibility study for the Copper World project in Arizona, where it holds a 30pc stake alongside Hudbay Minerals. The project aims to produce around 100,000 tonnes per year of copper from around 2029, strengthening North American copper supply for electrification, grids, and manufacturing.

Sumitomo Metal Mining’s plan to expand nickel matte production at its Hyuga smelter adds another battery materials dimension. Supported by Meti subsidies under Japan’s economic security framework, the project links Japanese refining capacity with battery material security for both Japan and the US.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Japan-US agenda shows that critical minerals cooperation is no longer limited to mining deals. The real strategy is to connect deep-sea resources, recycling, copper projects, nickel refining, and government-backed industrial policy into one supply chain security framework.

Capstone record copper output hits 224,764t in 2025 as strike risk rises

Capstone Copper

Capstone record copper output reached 224,764t in 2025, up 22% year on year. Capstone record copper output also rose 37% versus 2023 on Chile ramp-ups. Meanwhile, a strike at Mantoverde adds near-term downside risk for 2026 operations.

Capstone produced 184,830t from sulphide operations and 39,934t of cathodes in 2025. Fourth-quarter production hit a record 58,273t. As a result, Chile growth outweighed earlier constraints in other regions.

Chile ramp-ups deliver the bulk of Capstone’s growth

Mantoverde drove the 2025 step-change with 95,115t of copper, up 65% from 2024. The sulphide concentrator ramp-up lifted performance despite mill motor repairs in October and November. Therefore, December output hit a record 10,747t as throughput recovered to 36,761t/d.

Mantos Blancos produced 61,919t in 2025, beating its guidance range and rising 39% year on year. The debottlenecking programme lifted sulphide plant throughput and set a record quarterly output of 16,861t. However, sustaining higher rates now depends on stable staffing and maintenance execution.

Pinto Valley produced 42,382t in 2025, with a stronger fourth quarter at 11,423t. Earlier drought conditions constrained output in central Arizona. Cozamin produced 25,348t and finished near the upper end of guidance.

Strike at Mantoverde creates operational uncertainty for 2026

The Mantoverde strike began on 2 January after failed mediation with Union No. 2. The union covers about 22% of the total workforce and roughly half of Mantoverde employees. As a result, the site has operated near 75% of normal output and could run at 50–75% if the strike persists.

Mantoverde is 70% owned by Capstone and 30% owned by Mitsubishi Materials. Capstone says it remains open to negotiations while maintaining safe operations. Therefore, investors will watch labour resolution speed alongside 2026 execution discipline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Capstone’s Chile ramp-up shows real operational leverage in a tight copper market. However, labour stability now sets the ceiling for near-term performance. The market will price risk until Mantoverde returns to predictable throughput.

Chile Projects $83.2 Billion in Mining Investments Through 2033

Chile mining

Chile is poised to solidify its position as a global mining powerhouse with projected investments of $83.2 billion spanning 2024-2033.

Massive Investments in Mining Projects

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) unveiled its latest study highlighting a significant increase in mining investments for the coming decade. The forecast includes 51 mining projects, up from 49 in the previous study for 2023-2032, which projected $65.7 billion in investments. This growth signals Chile's commitment to bolstering its mining sector and enhancing its global competitiveness.

Key players in Chile's mining expansion include major domestic entities like El Abra, Antofagasta, and state-run copper miner Codelco, which collectively account for 64.5% of the total investment. International stakeholders are also playing a vital role:

• Canadian companies such as Teck, Capstone Copper, Los Andes Copper, and Kinross will represent approximately 10% of investments.
• Japanese corporations, including Sumitomo Metals and Mitsubishi Corp, will contribute 5.7%.
• Australian firms, spearheaded by BHP Billiton, will make up 5.2%.

Copper Production and Diversification

The influx of capital is projected to increase Chile’s copper production capacity by 2.23 million metric tonnes annually, adding to the 5 million tonnes produced in 2023, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). This aligns with Chile’s status as the world’s largest copper producer.

Additionally, $4.7 billion of the investments will be allocated to 15 projects focusing on "metals other than copper," including lithium and gold. Chile already ranks as the world's second-largest producer of lithium, a critical material for batteries and renewable energy storage.

Driving Forces Behind the Investment Surge

This investment boom highlights Chile’s strategic approach to capitalizing on the global demand for essential minerals. Increased copper production will cater to infrastructure and green energy projects worldwide, while lithium investments target the surging electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.

Cochilco’s report emphasizes the country’s appeal to global mining giants and underscores Chile’s robust regulatory framework and resource-rich landscape as key factors driving foreign investment.

Australia–Japan critical minerals partnership targets secure supply chains

Critical Minerals

Australia–Japan critical minerals partnership moves to the forefront of bilateral ties. Australia–Japan critical minerals partnership builds on decades of energy cooperation. Australia–Japan critical minerals partnership seeks resilient, non-China supply for strategic industries.

From energy security to economic security

Australia and Japan will deepen cooperation on critical minerals. The focus shifts from LNG and coal to strategic metals. Penny Wong flagged economic security as the next stage of ties. Japan depends on stable inputs for EVs, magnets, and semiconductors. Australia offers scale, rule-of-law, and proximity to Asian markets.

Deals signal scope across rare earths and nickel

Existing projects anchor momentum for the Australia–Japan critical minerals partnership. Sojitz and Jogmec signed an A$200mn Lynas offtake in 2023. They agreed to buy 65% of Lynas’ heavy rare earth output. Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi joined Ardea’s Kalgoorlie nickel project. The study outlines potential to reach 4mn t/yr of nickel. These deals pair Japanese capital with Australian resources and processing.

Strategic rationale and next steps

The partnership seeks resilient, transparent supply chains. It aligns with allied de-risking and industry policy goals. Therefore, both sides will likely back midstream processing in Australia. Meanwhile, long-term offtakes can underwrite project finance. Standardization and ESG traceability will strengthen market access. Early wins could include magnet-grade REO and battery-grade nickel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tokyo and Canberra are upgrading a proven model: Japanese investment plus Australian ore becomes strategic metals. The hinge now is midstream capacity and bankable offtakes; refining in Australia will test costs but de-risk geopolitics.

Rio Tinto and Partners to Develop Low-Carbon Aluminium Facility in Finland

Rio Tinto

Pioneering Sustainable Aluminium Production

Rio Tinto, in collaboration with several global partners including Mitsubishi from Japan and Sweden's Vargas, has announced plans to explore the development of a new low-carbon aluminium production facility in Kokkola, Finland. This initiative marks a significant advancement in sustainable manufacturing practices, as it aims to establish the first new primary aluminium production site in continental Europe in over 30 years.

Technological Innovations and Collaborative Efforts

The proposed facility will utilize Rio Tinto’s innovative AP60 aluminium smelting technology, renowned for its high efficiency and low carbon footprint. The project, dubbed the Arctial partnership, also involves Finland’s state-owned Industry Investment company along with other key local and international industry stakeholders.

A comprehensive feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment will be conducted initially to ensure the project's viability and sustainability. This preliminary phase is crucial in setting the stage for what could become a benchmark in environmentally-conscious industrial operations.

Strategic Developments and Environmental Impact

In addition to utilizing cutting-edge technology, the facility plans to source its energy from both existing and new low-carbon power production methods. Rio Tinto is set to be a major offtake partner, reinforcing its commitment to reducing carbon emissions across its operations.

Jerome Pecresse, the Chief Executive of Rio Tinto Aluminium, highlighted the project's potential to bolster Europe's industrial sector while supporting necessary capabilities for the ongoing energy transition. "Combining our AP60 technology with electricity not based on fossil fuels presents an attractive opportunity to provide low-carbon aluminium," he stated, emphasizing the strategic importance of this venture in promoting sustainable industrial growth.

Capstone Mantoverde Strike Ends as Copper Output Recovery Begins

Capstone Copper

Capstone Mantoverde strike ends after a month-long labour disruption at the Chilean copper-gold mine. Union #2 ratified a new three-year collective bargaining agreement. That approval allows the operation to begin ramping back toward full production. As a result, Capstone Mantoverde strike ends at an important moment for an already tight copper market.

The dispute had a real production impact. Union #2 represents about 645 workers, roughly half of Mantoverde’s direct workforce. During the strike, the mine operated at about 55pc of normal production levels. Therefore, Capstone Mantoverde strike ends with the company now focused on restoring stable output safely and quickly.

This matters because Mantoverde is not a marginal asset. The mine produced 62,308t of copper in concentrate and 32,807t of copper cathode in 2025. That accounted for about 0.4pc of global copper output. Consequently, the end of the strike reduces one source of pressure in Chile copper supply.

Mantoverde Copper Mine Still Faces Operational Vulnerabilities

Mantoverde copper mine is now moving past labour disruption, but operational risk has not disappeared. The site depends on a coastal desalination plant located about 40km away. Earlier disruptions at that facility restricted water supply and forced Capstone to curtail some processing activity. As a result, Mantoverde remains exposed to infrastructure as well as labour risk.

That combination makes the site more complex than a normal strike recovery story. Even with all four union agreements now secured, the mine still needs consistent water access and stable operations. Capstone said its priority is to restore output safely and efficiently. Therefore, the next phase will depend on execution, not only labour peace.

The ownership structure also adds strategic depth. Capstone holds a 70pc stake in Mantoverde, while Mitsubishi Materials owns the remaining 30pc. That makes the asset important not only for Capstone’s portfolio, but also for broader international copper supply relationships. Meanwhile, the company did not disclose the financial terms of the revised labour deal.

Copper Market Tightness Makes the Restart More Important

Copper market tightness is the bigger reason this strike matters. The market is expected to be more sensitive to unplanned disruptions in 2026 than in prior years. Both cathode and concentrate markets are already facing tighter conditions after production downgrades by major producers. Consequently, even partial production losses can carry more weight.

Recent copper price behavior reinforces that point. Prices have stayed volatile amid speculative flows, macro uncertainty, and concentrate market tightness. Three-month copper settled at $12,905/t in the article’s market context. Therefore, the end of the Mantoverde strike may help sentiment, even if it does not fully change the broader market balance.

For Capstone, the immediate task is clear. The company must move from partial output back to stable operating rates without new disruptions. For the market, the message is also clear. In a tighter copper environment, every operational recovery matters more than before.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This strike settlement matters because the copper market now reacts more sharply to operational setbacks and recoveries. Mantoverde is not large enough to reset global pricing alone, but it is large enough to matter in a tighter year. If Capstone restores full output smoothly, the market will treat that as a small but meaningful supply relief.

Hudbay 2026 Production Guidance Holds as Copper Growth Shifts to Second Half

Hudbay Minerals

Hudbay 2026 production guidance remains unchanged after first-quarter output came in broadly in line with expectations. The Canadian mining company expects to produce 110,000-138,000t of copper this year across its Peruvian and Canadian operations.

Hudbay 2026 production guidance was maintained despite a 10% year-on-year fall in first-quarter copper output. The company produced 27,929t of copper in January-March, compared with 30,958t a year earlier.

Hudbay 2026 production guidance now depends on stronger second-half output from Peru and British Columbia. Mill improvements, grade sequencing and higher throughput are expected to support recovery through the rest of the year.

The company reported a strong financial result despite lower copper and zinc output. Profit attributable to shareholders rose by 90% to $190.4mn, while revenue reached a record $757.3mn.

Peru Throughput Offsets Pampacancha Depletion

Hudbay’s Peruvian copper production rose by 1% on the year to 20,573t in the first quarter. The increase came even though the Pampacancha mine was depleted at the end of 2025.

Record mill throughput at Constancia helped offset the loss of Pampacancha volumes. This shows the importance of processing performance when mine sequencing becomes less favourable.

Hudbay expects further throughput gains in the second half of 2026. The company plans to lift mill rates at Constancia after installing pebble crushers.

The Peruvian government also granted Hudbay a permit on 6 March to increase mill throughput to 31.3mn t/yr. This is 5% above the previous allowance of 29.9mn t/yr.

The permit is strategically important because it gives Hudbay more operating flexibility in Peru. Higher permitted throughput can help protect copper output when grades fluctuate or mine sequencing changes.

Hudbay said social unrest could continue in Peru after federal elections. However, the company does not expect production to be affected.

Canada Grades Weaken as Arizona Expansion Gains Importance

Hudbay’s Canadian copper output fell sharply because of lower ore grades. Manitoba copper production declined by 27% to 2,525t, while British Columbia output fell by 33% to 4,821t.

The company expects British Columbia production to improve in the second half as a mill improvement project supports operations. Manitoba zinc output should also strengthen later in the year on better grade sequencing and higher ore output at Lalor.

First-quarter zinc production fell by 27% to 4,565t, mainly because of lower grades at Manitoba operations. Molybdenum output in Peru slipped by 4% to 380t.

Hudbay said it is fairly well insulated from higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. Its Manitoba operations require limited oil because underground equipment is electrically or battery driven.

This matters as fuel and logistics costs become more important for global miners. Operations with electrified underground fleets may have better protection against diesel price volatility.

Hudbay’s longer-term copper strategy is increasingly focused on the US. The company acquired Arizona Sonoran Copper Company in March through an all-share transaction worth about C$1.5bn.

It is also developing the Copper World project in Arizona with Mitsubishi’s US subsidiary. These assets give Hudbay future exposure to US copper demand tied to grids, electrification, manufacturing and supply-chain security.

The first-quarter result therefore shows a company balancing near-term grade pressure with longer-term copper growth optionality. Peru remains the key operating platform today, while Arizona could become more important in the next phase.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s unchanged guidance shows confidence in second-half operational recovery, but the grade pressure in Canada is a reminder that copper supply remains technically fragile. The Arizona strategy gives Hudbay a stronger long-term position as US copper supply becomes more strategic.

Hudbay Copper Mountain Acquisition Secures 100% Ownership

Hudbay

Hudbay Expands Control Over Strategic Canadian Copper Asset

Hudbay Minerals has finalized the Hudbay Copper Mountain acquisition, taking full ownership of the British Columbia-based copper mine. The company purchased Mitsubishi Materials 25% stake for an initial $4.5mn, with up to $39.75mn in additional deferred and contingent payments. Hudbay also assumed outstanding obligations, including a $104mn share of debt previously held by MMC.

Production Growth Boosts Canada's Copper Output

This Hudbay Copper Mountain acquisition positions Hudbay as the second-largest copper producer in Canada. Copper Mountain is projected to produce 60,000 tonnes of copper by 2027, a 127% increase from 2024 output. Over the next three years, the mine is expected to average 44,000 tonnes annually, enhancing Hudbay’s overall production portfolio.

Strategic Impact and Market Significance

The acquisition aligns with rising global demand for copper, especially for clean energy and electrification. Hudbay’s move to consolidate ownership supports strategic control, operational flexibility, and long-term growth. The Hudbay Copper Mountain acquisition demonstrates the company’s confidence in Canadian copper assets and its role in securing North American supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s full acquisition of Copper Mountain strengthens its foothold in Canada’s critical copper sector. As electrification drives copper demand, consolidating control over production will be a key advantage amid market volatility.

Japan's Non-Ferrous Metals Output Shows Mixed Trends for 2025

Copper

Japan's leading producers of non-ferrous metals project a mixed outlook for the October-March 2025 period, with zinc output expected to rise, while forecasts for copper production are varied. Recent data from major companies and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) highlights these trends, reflecting broader shifts in Japan's non-ferrous sector.

Zinc Production on the Rise, Copper Output Mixed

Mitsui Mining & Smelting, one of Japan's prominent zinc producers, forecasts a 5.9% increase in its zinc output, reaching 119,100 tons. The rise is attributed to expanded production capacity following regular maintenance conducted earlier this year between April and September. August data from METI supports this positive trend, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% to 34,191 tons in zinc production, marking the first growth in three months after a sharp 25.4% decline in July.

In contrast, the outlook for copper production is less straightforward. Sumitomo Metal Mining expects a robust recovery, projecting a 21.4% rise to 227,000 tons for October-March 2025. This rebound comes after planned large-scale maintenance at its Toyo plant in Ehime Prefecture, which had reduced output in late 2023. Similarly, Pan Pacific Copper, Japan's largest copper supplier, plans a 4.4% increase to 303,700 tons, indicating a positive trend in domestic copper production.

However, not all forecasts are optimistic. Mitsubishi Materials expects a 5.7% decrease in copper output, down to 196,578 tons, due to regular scheduled maintenance at its Naoshima plant in Kagawa Prefecture during the same period. Despite this, METI data shows that Japan’s electrolytic copper production has been rising consistently this year, with August output up by 4.7% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive months of growth.

These mixed projections underscore the complexity of Japan's non-ferrous metals sector, where varying maintenance schedules, production capacities, and external demand factors contribute to fluctuating output trends.

High-temperature metals and nickel rally reshape global superalloy cost structure

High-temperature metals

Surging demand and constrained supply mean the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is fundamentally reshaping superalloy cost structures. Aircraft engine and industrial gas turbine manufacturers are ordering at record levels just as key refractory metals move sharply higher. As a result, the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is squeezing melters that sit between volatile raw material markets and long-dated OEM contracts.

Rhenium-led cost shock hits second-generation superalloys

Rhenium has become the epicentre of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally despite representing only a small share of alloy weight. Intrinsic values for benchmark single-crystal alloys such as Rene N5 and CMSX-4 have jumped by more than 80pc in a year. This surge reflects rhenium’s critical role in creep strength and fatigue resistance in high-pressure turbine blades. However, rhenium remains a by-product of molybdenum from copper operations, which severely limits flexible supply. Other key elements such as tantalum and hafnium have also rallied, yet their relative contribution to alloy cost is still overshadowed by rhenium in second-generation chemistries.

Producers now face a difficult trade-off between performance and affordability as the high-temperature metals and nickel rally reopens the debate over alloy design. Second-generation alloys with roughly 3pc rhenium, including Rene N5 and CMSX-4, remain the market workhorses because they balance durability with cost. Meanwhile, third-generation alloys with higher rhenium contents remain less widely adopted, as OEMs hesitate to qualify materials whose economics depend on extreme minor-metal prices.

Tight turbine capacity, nickel rally and scrap strategy

Industrial gas turbine demand is amplifying the impact of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally on alloy buyers. MAR-M 247, a key alloy for IGT blisk castings, has seen calculated costs climb alongside hafnium and other minor metals. Lead times for major OEMs such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reportedly stretch to around seven years. Commercial aircraft backlogs exceed a decade of production, leaving melt shops reluctant to miss their place in already strained queues.

Nickel’s rally adds a second layer of inflation even in lower rhenium or rhenium-free alloys. Benchmark nickel prices have jumped around 25pc since mid-December, supported by investor flows and policy risk premiums despite an oversupplied refined market. Nickel-based alloys only account for roughly 6pc of nickel demand, yet the price spike is clearly visible in less temperature-critical grades such as Inconel 718. Intrinsic values for Inconel 718 have risen on the back of nickel and niobium, lifting input costs for rings, casings and sheet parts across aerospace and energy applications.

To defend margins, melters are pushing scrap-based strategies as far as OEM specifications allow. High revert utilisation, sometimes up to 70pc of a melt, can partially shield producers from spot price volatility in primary metals. However, strict quality standards often restrict the use of externally sourced scrap, with some OEMs mandating internal revert only. Many melt shops therefore work “hand-to-mouth”, hesitant to lock in long-term tonnages at record prices while suppliers worry about replacing committed units in tightening markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The high-temperature metals and nickel rally is exposing how concentrated and opaque minor-metal supply chains remain, particularly for rhenium and tungsten. For investors and OEMs, the key strategic levers will be higher scrap utilisation, deeper recycling partnerships and more flexible alloy qualification pathways. Those who move fastest on revert, substitution and long-term offtakes will be best placed to secure turbine-grade material through the next decade of aerospace and power-generation growth.

Mangrove Lithium Secures $35mn for BC Refining Plant

Mangrove Lithium

Mangrove Lithium secured $35mn to construct a lithium refining plant in Delta, British Columbia. The facility aims to enhance North American battery material supply.

Refining Plant to Boost EV Battery Production

The plant, slated for late 2025 operation, will produce battery-grade materials for roughly 25,000 EVs annually. The funding included investments from Mitsubishi, Asahi Kasei, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and BMW i Ventures. Mangrove converts lithium chloride and sulfate into battery-grade lithium hydroxide. Its modular platform enables refining facilities near feedstock and battery manufacturing sites.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal reshapes a top-tier mine complex

Anglo American Codelco

The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal will turn Los Bronces–Andina into a true global copper powerhouse. The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal integrates mine planning between the adjacent operations and targets 120,000 t/yr of extra copper. As a result, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal could unlock at least $5bn in cost savings over 21 years.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal targets more metal at lower unit costs

The agreement aligns long-term mine plans at Los Bronces and Andina to optimise ore scheduling and processing. A joint plan is expected to deliver an additional 2.7mn t of copper from 2030 over 21 years. Therefore, the complex should cut unit costs by up to 15pc versus standalone strategies, with little extra capital.

Combined Los Bronces–Andina output already ranks among the world’s top 10 copper mines. The planned production uplift would push the integrated complex into the global top five. A new jointly owned operating company will manage planning and processing optimisation across both mines. However, each partner will still retain ownership of its own concessions and physical assets.

Under the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal, output, costs and liabilities will be shared equally. Anglo American Sur, which operates Los Bronces, remains 50.1pc owned by Anglo American, 20.4pc by Mitsubishi and 29.5pc by Becrux, Codelco and Mitsui’s joint venture. Both sides also keep the option to advance separate underground projects in parallel, preserving flexibility for future expansions.

Strategic timing as Chilean copper supply and Anglo’s portfolio evolve

The timing of the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal coincides with tight copper supply and rising prices. Markets are closely watching long-term additions in Chile, given strong demand from energy transition and data centre infrastructure. Therefore, a low-capex, brownfield uplift at an existing complex looks especially attractive to investors and customers.

Implementation still depends on regulatory and environmental approvals, which both firms expect to secure by 2030. Chilean authorities will scrutinise water, emissions and community impacts, especially in the high Andes. However, the partnership structure signals a willingness to share not only upside, but also ESG responsibilities. This is increasingly important as financiers and OEMs demand clearer sustainability performance from large copper suppliers.

The deal also follows Anglo American’s recently announced merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group. That transaction would consolidate a major iron ore, copper and zinc business with a much deeper project pipeline. In that context, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal strengthens the future group’s position in premium Chilean copper. It also deepens Anglo’s relationship with Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer and a key state partner.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how value in copper is shifting from greenfield megaprojects to smarter integration of existing belts. By coordinating mine plans and plant utilisation, Anglo and Codelco aim to extract more metal with less new capital and lower unit costs. Market participants should watch the permitting pathway and any future expansion of this model to other Chilean districts as a template for collaborative de-risking.

Rio Tinto’s Copper, Aluminium Earnings Surge in First Half of 2024

UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tintos aluminium and copper earnings increased year on year in the first half of 2024.

Copper

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) in Rio Tinto's copper business increased by 67% on the year in the first half to $1.8 million, benefiting from the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and resumed operations at the Kennecott smelter in the United States following its rebuild last year.

Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 13% on the year to 327,000 tons in the first half of this year on the back of higher output from its three operations. Mined copper output increased by 9% on the year at Escondida in Chile and 18% at Kennecott. Mined copper output also increased by 15% at Oyu Tolgoi, keeping it on track to reach 500,000 tons per year of copper from 2028 to 2036.

Refined copper production increased by 32% on the year to 125,000 tons in the first half owing to the resumed operations at Kennecott, partially offset by lower refined copper production from Escondida by 19%.

The firm expects to produce 660,000-720,000 tons of mined copper and 230,000-260,000 tons of refined copper in 2024.

Aluminium

Rio Tinto's aluminium business saw Ebitda jump 38% higher on the year in the first six months, reaching $1.58 billion, as revenues edged up by 4% to $6.49 billion.

The company reported easing costs for key raw materials such as caustic soda, coke, and pitch. Average all-in prices remained broadly stable as rising London Metal Exchange aluminium prices were mitigated by lower premiums.

Rio produced 1.65 million tons of aluminium in the first half, up by 3% on the year, with broadly stable production across its smelter network.

The company produced 3.54 million tons of alumina in the first half, down by 5% on the year, while bauxite production rose by 10% on the year to 28.1 million tons in the first half.

In the second quarter, Rio Tinto began consolidating ownership of its aluminium smelters. At the end of May, the company agreed to acquire Japanese firm Sumitomo Chemical's stake in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, giving Rio Tinto 100% ownership of the company. The following month, it agreed to acquire Japanese firm Mitsubishi's 11.65% stake in the Boyne Smelters subsidiary, which owns and operates the Boyne Island aluminium smelter in Gladstone.

Japan tungsten recycling expansion accelerates after China export controls

the International Tungsten Industry Association(ITIA)

Japan tungsten recycling expansion is now central to the country’s response to China’s new export controls. Japan has no domestic tungsten mines and historically relied on Chinese APT and cemented carbide imports. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is becoming the primary lever to secure supply and stabilise its hard-metal value chain. Japan tungsten recycling expansion also reflects a broader shift toward circularity and strategic raw material resilience.

Scrap flows highlight the scale of Japan tungsten recycling expansion

Japan is ramping tungsten scrap utilisation to compensate for lower Chinese export volumes. The country generates 3,500–4,000t of tungsten scrap annually, with about half recycled domestically and half exported. However, Japan also imports 500–1,000t of scrap each year, underscoring its dependence on global recycling networks.

China’s export controls on APT and cemented carbide have sharply reduced shipments into Japan. No other producing country has fully offset this loss, creating a structural shortfall in virgin tungsten materials. Therefore, Japanese industry is pushing harder to capture and process scrap from cutting tools and hard-metal components.

Scrap exports to overseas processors have also surged as part of this adjustment. From April to June, Japan exported 865t of tungsten scrap, double the previous quarter. Much of this material goes to the US, Germany and Taiwan for conversion into tungsten carbide powder. Meanwhile, limited domestic processing capacity means Japan must then reimport refined powders or finished tools.

Japan lacks tungsten recycling capacity comparable to leading manufacturing countries such as Germany. Market participants agree that higher prices and strong scrap demand create a window to invest in domestic plants. Companies like Mitsubishi Materials and Sumitomo Group are intensifying recycling efforts, but significant capacity additions will take time to materialise.

Strategic impact of Japan tungsten recycling expansion on supply security

Japan tungsten recycling expansion carries important strategic implications beyond near-term supply balancing. By strengthening domestic scrap processing, Japan can reduce exposure to Chinese export policies over the medium term. At the same time, enhanced recycling supports national goals on circular economy and lower carbon metal supply.

Industry leaders emphasise that Japan still needs a framework for constructive cooperation with China. However, they also stress that recycling will play a growing role in any long-term procurement strategy. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is viewed as both a defensive and forward-looking move. It protects critical industries today while aligning with future ESG requirements.

Higher tungsten prices and constrained primary supply should continue to incentivise investment in collection, sorting and processing infrastructure. Tool manufacturers and end-users will likely see tighter take-back schemes and more advanced recycling logistics. In five to ten years, today’s disruption may be remembered as the catalyst that forced Japan to build a more robust, diversified tungsten procurement system.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s response to China’s tungsten export controls shows how quickly advanced manufacturing economies can pivot toward recycling when supply shocks hit. If current investment momentum holds, Japan could evolve from a largely import-dependent buyer into a more balanced scrap-and-powder hub. Market participants should watch where new recycling plants are sited and how quickly domestic processing capacity closes the gap with Germany and other leaders.