EU end-of-life vehicles regulation sets recycled content targets for cars

Recycled content for cars

The EU end-of-life vehicles regulation will set recycled content targets for cars across the bloc. The deal phases in recycled plastics content in new vehicles over the next decade. Therefore, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation reshapes how automakers source plastics, steel, and aluminium.

The European Parliament and EU states reached a provisional agreement on the rules. The plan sets 15% recycled plastics in six years. It then rises to 25% in ten years. Meanwhile, 20% of those plastics must come from end-of-life vehicles or reused components.

Recycled steel and aluminium targets move to a feasibility phase

Targets for recycled steel and aluminium will follow later. The European Commission will run feasibility studies first. As a result, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation creates a staged pathway for metal recycling mandates.

This approach gives industry time to validate scrap availability and quality. However, it still signals future demand for low-carbon secondary aluminium and recycled steel. Therefore, suppliers should prepare for tighter traceability and mass-balance scrutiny.

Producer responsibility and export rules tighten material retention

The agreement expands collection and depollution rules to more vehicle categories. It will cover heavy-duty vehicles, motorcycles, and special purpose vehicles. Meanwhile, the regulation will introduce a cross-border extended producer responsibility scheme three years after entry.

Manufacturers will carry financial and organisational responsibility across the vehicle lifecycle. The rules also aim to distinguish used vehicles from end-of-life vehicles more clearly. Five years after entry, the EU will ban exports of non-roadworthy used vehicles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy pushes the auto supply chain toward circular materials at scale. However, recycled aluminium and steel targets will hinge on scrap sorting and clean-stream capacity. Therefore, early movers in certified recycling and traceable alloys gain leverage.

EU Mexico Trade Agreement Opens Clean Tech and Critical Materials Opportunities

EU, Mexico

EU Mexico trade agreement signing marks a major update to a commercial relationship already worth around €100bn/yr in goods and services. The revised deal aims to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers while creating new opportunities in clean technology, critical raw materials and agri-food trade.

EU Mexico trade agreement provisions will eliminate almost all high Mexican tariffs on EU imports. The affected sectors include machinery, mineral fuels, cars, car parts and a wide range of agri-food products.

EU Mexico trade agreement rules also include legally binding commitments on environmental protection and climate change. This gives the deal a strategic industrial angle beyond conventional tariff reduction.

The interim trade agreement is expected to move faster than the wider modernised global agreement. It needs European Parliament approval and qualified-majority approval from EU member states, rather than ratification by all 27 countries.

Clean Technology and Raw Materials Gain Strategic Relevance

The agreement could strengthen EU-Mexico cooperation in clean technology and critical raw materials. This matters as Europe seeks more diversified supply chains for energy transition equipment, electric vehicles, industrial machinery and advanced manufacturing.

Mexico is already a major manufacturing base linked to North American automotive and industrial supply chains. Better EU access could support machinery, components and clean technology exports into a market positioned between Europe and the US.

The deal also includes strict rules of origin, including for electric vehicles. EU officials said these rules are designed to prevent circumvention and avoid the agreement becoming a backdoor for Chinese production.

That detail is important. As tariffs, subsidies and local-content rules reshape global EV trade, rules of origin are becoming a core tool of industrial policy.

For European manufacturers, clearer access to Mexico may support exports of vehicles, parts, machinery and clean technology systems. For Mexican producers, greater access to the EU could strengthen trade in food, consumer products and selected industrial goods.

Tariff Cuts Combine With Climate and Circular Economy Commitments

Mexico will remove tariffs on key European exports including pork, dairy, cereals, fruit and pasta. Sensitive products will receive limited access through tariff-rate quotas.

The agreement also gives EU exporters broader quota access for dairy, beef, poultry and pork products. In return, Mexican producers will gain more liberalised access to the EU for products including coffee, fruit, chocolate and agave syrup.

Alongside the trade deal, both sides signed a circular economy declaration covering climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, including plastics. This adds sustainability language to the commercial framework.

The agreement requires both parties to uphold international climate treaties, including the Paris Agreement. It also includes a dedicated dispute settlement procedure.

For metals and industrial supply chains, the wider message is clear. Trade agreements are increasingly combining market access, climate obligations, origin rules and supply-chain security.

The EU is using trade policy to support clean technology, critical raw materials cooperation and industrial competitiveness. Mexico gains deeper access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets while strengthening its role in global manufacturing networks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU-Mexico deal shows how trade policy is becoming a supply-chain security instrument. The rules of origin for electric vehicles may prove as important as the tariff cuts, especially as Europe tries to protect clean technology markets from indirect Chinese competition.

China and EU Resume Electric Vehicle Talks Amid Growing US Tariff Pressures

US tariff, China

Negotiations on Price Commitments Could Ease Trade Friction in the EV Market

China and the European Union (EU) have decided to resume negotiations regarding a price commitment mechanism for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This decision follows the EU's implementation of countervailing duties on Chinese BEV imports in 2024. The goal of these talks is to replace the tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), addressing ongoing trade tensions between China and the EU.

EU's Countervailing Duties and the Push for a Price Commitment Mechanism

In October 2024, the European Commission finalized its ruling on countervailing duties on BEVs imported from China, which came into effect at the end of October. These duties ranged from 17% to 35.3%, impacting major Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely. The aim was to counter what the EU viewed as unfair pricing practices by Chinese EV manufacturers. However, these tariffs have faced opposition from both China and European companies seeking to expand their market share in the fast-growing electric vehicle sector.

Despite early talks on a price commitment mechanism in November 2024, the discussions stalled without significant progress. However, on April 10, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that both sides had agreed to resume negotiations on the price commitments and to discuss broader issues of investment cooperation in the automotive industry.

US Tariffs Intensify the Pressure on China and the EU

The resumption of talks between China and the EU comes amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. As of April 11, 2025, the US imposed a 145% tariff rate on imports from China, adding additional pressure on Chinese manufacturers, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors. US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which were initially implemented in 2024, compounded by those under the Biden administration, have made it nearly impossible for Chinese EVs and lithium-ion batteries to enter the US market.

In an effort to counterbalance the US's growing tariff measures, China has been seeking closer economic ties with the EU. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held discussions with EU President Ursula von der Leyen on April 8, 2025, addressing the need for structural solutions to re-balance bilateral trade relations. The talks have emphasized the urgency of enhancing market access for European businesses in China and forging a collaborative approach to the challenges posed by US tariffs.

Potential Impact on the Electric Vehicle Market

If China and the EU reach an agreement on the price commitment mechanism, it could significantly alter the landscape for Chinese EVs in Europe. Prior to the implementation of the countervailing duties, the EU accounted for about 28% of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which includes both BEVs and hybrid plug-in vehicles. However, the tariffs have drastically reduced Chinese EV exports to Europe.

The continuation of trade protectionist measures from both the US and the EU is putting immense pressure on China’s EV and battery markets, particularly as it struggles to enter key international markets. The future of Chinese electric vehicle exports largely hinges on these negotiations, and any breakthrough could bring Chinese-made EVs back into the competitive EU market.

China and EU Continue Talks on EV Price Commitment Plan: A Step Toward Sustainable Electric Vehicle Pricing

China and EU EV

In the rapidly evolving world of electric vehicles (EVs), the ongoing negotiations between China and the European Union (EU) regarding a price commitment mechanism have garnered significant attention. This critical dialogue is aimed at creating a framework for stable pricing structures for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which could play a pivotal role in the global transition to sustainable mobility.

The discussions, which have been ongoing for several months, focus on ensuring that BEV prices remain competitive while simultaneously promoting the widespread adoption of electric vehicles across the EU and China. This price commitment mechanism could include agreed-upon price floors, subsidies, and tariff adjustments that ensure both consumers and manufacturers benefit from a stable, predictable market environment. The outcome of these talks has the potential to reshape global EV strategies and boost the competitiveness of BEVs in a critical phase of the clean energy transition.

Key Areas of Focus in the Talks

One of the central themes in the China-EU discussions is the alignment of manufacturing costs, which will play a role in determining the final retail prices of BEVs. As China remains a global leader in EV production, the partnership with the EU could foster deeper collaboration in research and development (R&D), as well as in the supply chains for critical raw materials like lithium and cobalt. With battery costs continuing to be a major component of EV pricing, both sides are working to reduce production expenses while ensuring the overall quality of the vehicles remains high.

Furthermore, the EU is focused on ensuring that these commitments align with its broader environmental goals. The EU has set ambitious targets for carbon reduction and aims to accelerate the shift to electric mobility as part of its Green Deal. The price commitment mechanism would allow both parties to meet these goals without sacrificing economic competitiveness or consumer access to affordable electric vehicles.

As negotiations progress, the automotive industry is watching closely, as these agreements could determine the trajectory of EV pricing in key global markets.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

China Escalates Countermeasures in Response to EU Electric Vehicle Tariffs

China has intensified its response to the European Union's new countervailing duties on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) originating from China, highlighting growing trade tensions between two major economic blocs.

Beijing is now weighing an increase in tariffs on large-displacement fuel vehicles imported from Europe, a significant move given the EU’s status as a leading exporter of high-displacement cars to China. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, approximately 88,000 such vehicles with engine displacements over 2.5 liters were imported from Europe in the first seven months of this year alone.

Duties Target Major Chinese EV Producers

This escalation follows the EU's recent decision, enacted on October 4, to approve five-year tariffs on BEV imports from China, impacting the market for Chinese automakers. BYD, China’s largest new energy vehicle producer, will face a tariff rate of 17%, consistent with the EU's initial August proposal. Geely, another major player, saw its duty set at 18.8%, slightly down from an earlier proposed 19.3%. State-owned SAIC will face a significantly higher tariff of 35.3%, slightly reduced from an initial 36.6%. Notably, US-based Tesla, which manufactures in China for export, will contend with a 7.8% duty, down from a previously proposed 9%.

The Ministry of Commerce has indicated that it will continue to negotiate with EU counterparts but asserts it is prepared to take "firm" actions to protect Chinese commercial interests. BYD’s rapid expansion in the European market, selling over 23,000 BEVs between January and August—a doubling of last year’s figures—demonstrates China’s foothold in the region. Tesla, meanwhile, sold roughly 198,000 units in the same period, marking a 16% decrease from the previous year.

Tensions Expand Beyond the EU

China's retaliation isn’t limited to the EU alone. The country has launched a complaint with the World Trade Organization against Turkey over its recent imposition of a 40% tariff on Chinese EVs, a measure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced to stimulate Turkey's domestic electric vehicle market.

China has additionally undertaken countervailing and anti-dumping investigations into a variety of EU exports, including dairy products and pork. On October 8, Beijing imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on brandy imports from Europe, underscoring China’s readiness to diversify its retaliatory measures across multiple sectors.

EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles face fresh pressure from Berlin

German

EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles face new pressure from Berlin. Friedrich Merz urged European Union policymakers to keep multiple drivetrains on sale after 2035. However, he wants technology-neutral EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles that protect competitiveness.

The European Commission plans to revise car and van CO2 standards on 10 December. It already offered more compliance flexibility for 2025–2027. Therefore, Berlin sees a window to reshape the 2035 pathway.

Technology-neutral compliance expands beyond tailpipe metrics

Merz signaled flexibility in a letter to Ursula von der Leyen. He asked for continued acceptance of efficient combustion engines after 2035. Meanwhile, he also backed plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs beyond 2035.

Berlin also wants rules to recognize value-chain reductions. It wants regulators to credit sustainable inputs like green steel. As a result, automakers could offset vehicle emissions with cleaner materials and processes.

Fleet rules, e-fuels, and industry pressure shape the 2026 debate

Merz wants more flexible interim fleet targets to cut penalty risk. He also supports higher blending quotas for synthetic and biogenic fuels. However, he rejects mandatory EV quotas for corporate fleets. Instead, he prefers incentives that accelerate adoption without mandates.

Industry lobbying has intensified after Stellantis dropped its 2030 all-electric sales goal. Campaigners warn that weaker rules could raise exposure to imported EV competition. Meanwhile, BYD growth adds urgency to Europe’s industrial strategy. Therefore, EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles now sit at the center of policy and market risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Technology-neutral rules can protect jobs and investment during a messy transition. However, Europe must avoid locking in slow decarbonisation pathways. Therefore, policymakers should pair flexibility with clear, enforceable emissions outcomes.

Australia EU Trade Deal Secures Critical Raw Materials Supply

Australia, EU trade

Australia EU trade deal negotiations have concluded after eight years, giving the EU a new framework to secure stable access to critical raw materials. The agreement targets minerals including lithium, bauxite, manganese, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth oxides.

The Australia EU trade deal will cut or remove bilateral tariffs on critical raw materials and value-added mineral products. This gives European manufacturers a more reliable supply route at a time when tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical pressure are reshaping global materials trade.

The agreement also strengthens Australia’s position as a preferred critical minerals partner for Europe. Australia produces around a third of global lithium and remains a major supplier of bauxite, iron ore, zirconium, and rare earth elements.

Critical Minerals Access Becomes Central to EU Trade Policy

The EU is using the Australia EU trade deal to reduce exposure to China-dominated supply chains and rising US tariff risks. The agreement reflects Brussels’ shift from traditional trade liberalisation toward strategic supply chain security.

Critical raw materials are now central to European industrial policy because they support batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence systems, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Stable access to lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and rare earths will determine how quickly Europe can scale clean-energy manufacturing.

The deal also includes deeper co-operation on critical raw materials, including possible co-financing of key projects. This matters because Europe needs not only raw mineral access, but also investment in processing, refining, and value-added material production.

Australia Gains Strategic Value as Europe Diversifies Supply

Australia stands to gain economically and strategically from the agreement. The deal is expected to add about $7 billion per year to the Australian economy, while European producers could save more than $1.1 billion in tariffs over the next decade.

The timing is important because Europe is rapidly diversifying its strategic trade partnerships. The EU recently moved forward with trade agreements involving Mercosur and India, showing that Brussels is building a wider network of reliable raw material and manufacturing partners.

The Australia agreement still requires approval by a majority of EU member states and consent from the European Parliament before ratification is complete. However, the strategic direction is already clear: Europe wants critical minerals supply from partners with stable governance, developed mining capacity, and lower geopolitical risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Australia EU trade deal shows that critical minerals have moved from procurement strategy to trade architecture. Europe is no longer simply buying raw materials; it is building alliances to secure the minerals, processing capacity, and industrial resilience needed for the energy transition.

EU Car Emissions Policy Divides States as 2035 and ETS 2 Battles Intensify

EU, ETS

EU car emissions policy is becoming a major fault line between member states as governments debate how much flexibility automakers should receive after 2035 and how quickly carbon pricing should expand into road transport and buildings.

France, Spain and Sweden defended continued electrification, while Poland called for greater flexibility in vehicle CO2 rules and further changes to ETS 2. The European Commission’s current proposal would replace the existing 100% tailpipe-emissions reduction requirement for new cars and vans from 2035 with a 90% reduction, with the remaining emissions compensated through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels. 

EU car emissions policy increasingly matters for metals markets because the regulatory outcome will influence the pace of EV adoption, internal-combustion vehicle production and material demand across batteries, copper, aluminium and automotive steels.

At the same time, disagreements over ETS 2 show that Europe is still negotiating how quickly consumers and transport markets should absorb the cost of decarbonisation.

2035 Flexibility Could Reshape Automotive Metals Demand

The Commission’s proposed flexibility would allow plug-in hybrids, range extenders, mild hybrids and some internal-combustion vehicles to remain in the market beyond 2035, provided manufacturers meet the wider emissions framework. 

That matters because the automotive material mix changes significantly depending on powertrain.

Battery electric vehicles typically require larger battery packs and more copper-intensive electrical systems. They directly support demand for lithium, graphite and selected nickel and manganese products depending on battery chemistry.

Hybrids require much smaller batteries, reducing battery mineral intensity per vehicle. However, they still consume more copper and electrical components than conventional combustion vehicles.

Continued ICE production would also sustain demand for metals and components linked to traditional powertrains, including speciality steels, aluminium castings and exhaust-system materials.

Low-carbon steel is becoming another strategic element. Under the Commission proposal, EU-made low-carbon steel could contribute to compensating the remaining emissions permitted after 2035. 

This could create a new commercial advantage for European steelmakers investing in lower-carbon production. Automotive decarbonisation would then depend not only on the vehicle powertrain but also on the embedded emissions of its materials.

The industrial argument is therefore becoming more complex than EV versus ICE. Europe is increasingly debating whether decarbonisation should be measured through tailpipe emissions alone or through a broader combination of powertrain, fuels and lower-carbon materials.

ETS 2 Debate Highlights Cost of Europe’s Transition

The political divide extends beyond cars to carbon pricing.

ETS 2 is designed to expand emissions trading to fuels used in buildings, road transport and additional sectors. Its full launch is currently scheduled for 2028, while EU institutions have also been strengthening its market stability reserve to reduce excessive price volatility. 

Poland is pushing for stronger mechanisms to control carbon prices and has argued for further flexibility around implementation.

The issue is important because ETS 2 could eventually increase the carbon cost associated with road fuels and heating. Governments are therefore balancing emissions objectives against household costs, inflation and industrial competitiveness.

For metals and manufacturing, carbon market design has indirect but significant consequences. Faster electrification supports grids, charging infrastructure and electrical metals demand. Slower implementation could extend fossil fuel consumption and delay part of that investment cycle.

Germany has meanwhile focused on the longer-term availability of allowances under the existing ETS, highlighting concern over how rapidly the emissions cap declines as Europe approaches its 2040 climate targets.

These debates show that Europe has broadly agreed on the direction of travel but not on the speed or industrial structure of the transition.

The eventual policy mix will influence where manufacturers invest, which automotive technologies survive and how quickly European material supply chains need to adapt.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s automotive debate is shifting from a simple ICE-versus-EV argument toward a contest over technology, carbon pricing and material origin. For metals markets, the final policy balance will determine how quickly demand moves toward batteries, copper and low-carbon steel.

China Challenges EU's EV Tariffs at WTO

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, China has filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the European Union's (EU) imposition of provisional anti-subsidy duties on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Beijing argues that the EU's actions lack a solid factual and legal foundation and violate WTO rules, potentially undermining global efforts to combat climate change.

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction with the EU's decision, urging immediate rectification. "The EU's preliminary ruling is baseless and disrupts the stability of China-EU economic and trade relations, as well as the supply chain of electric vehicles," the spokesperson said.

The European Commission had imposed these additional duties on July 5th, targeting three major Chinese EV manufacturers. BYD, Geely, and SAIC faced new tariffs of 17.4%, 19.9%, and 37.6%, respectively. The duty on SAIC, China’s largest automaker, was slightly reduced from an initial 38.1%. The final determination on these duties, which could last for five years, will be made by EU member states.

SAIC, a key player in the EV market, with significant exports to the UK, France, Germany, and Spain, has formally requested a hearing on these temporary countervailing duties. The Chinese government also called for expedited consultations with the EU to reach a mutually agreeable solution.

China, which accounted for 59% of global BEV sales in the first half of the year, sees this move as detrimental not only to its economic interests but also to the broader goal of global climate cooperation. Meanwhile, Europe’s EV market growth has slowed significantly, largely due to the reduction of fiscal subsidies, slow progress in building charging infrastructure, and broader economic challenges.

Germany's Olaf Scholz Urges Unified EU Support for EVs and Steelmakers

Scholz

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on the European Union (EU) to implement comprehensive measures to boost electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing and protect its steel industry from overcapacity and dumping. Speaking at an EU leaders' meeting, Scholz emphasized the importance of collaboration within the bloc and avoiding conflicts with major trading partners like China.

Scholz specifically urged Brussels to seek a "good conclusion" with Beijing regarding countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric vehicle (BEV) imports. EU negotiators are exploring a price commitment mechanism to address concerns about cheap imports, but Scholz opposed punitive duties, arguing, "It makes no sense having a conflict about this."

EV Manufacturing and Emissions Targets

To support European carmakers, Scholz proposed that the EU reconsider its stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets for light passenger vehicles. The upcoming target of 93.6g CO2/km for 2025-2029, a 15% reduction from 2021 levels, has faced criticism for its ambitious timelines. Scholz suggested easing penalties for automakers unable to meet these requirements by 2025, stating, "It makes no sense to burden [car manufacturers] with additional penalties for not achieving results."

The targets will tighten further, reaching 49.5g CO2/km from 2030-2034 and zero emissions by 2035, effectively banning internal combustion engine vehicles. Scholz called for a balanced approach, ensuring that penalties do not hinder firms’ liquidity, especially as they ramp up investments in electro-mobility.

Additionally, Scholz proposed a "common subsidy concept" across EU member states to stimulate EV production and enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the global automotive market.

Addressing Steel Industry Challenges

Scholz also highlighted the urgent need for the EU to tackle overcapacity, dumping, and the influx of cheap steel imports that threaten European steelmakers. He advocated for a unified strategy to safeguard the bloc's industrial base, underscoring the strategic importance of the steel sector to the EU's economy and energy transition goals.

Mercedes CEO Advocates for Strategic Trade Alliances with US and China

Mercedes

Call for EU-US Trade Negotiations Amid Rising Tariff Threats

Ola Källenius, the CEO of Mercedes-Benz and the new leader of the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), has emphasized the need for a strategic trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States. In a recent statement, Källenius urged the EU to pursue a "grand bargain" to sidestep potential trade conflicts, especially in light of the incoming US administration's threat to impose blanket tariffs on imports.

Strengthening Ties with China and Fostering Market Resilience

Beyond the Atlantic, Källenius also addressed the relationship between the EU and China, advocating for stronger internal markets rather than protective barriers. His comments highlight the delicate balance of protecting domestic jobs while benefiting from free international trade. The EU is currently managing an anti-subsidy case concerning battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China, with Källenius calling for a resolution that supports both trade and environmental goals.

Navigating Automotive Decarbonization and Regulatory Challenges

The Mercedes CEO pointed out the automotive industry's need for clear regulatory frameworks, especially concerning CO2 emissions targets for EU vehicles. With 2025 and future benchmarks approaching, Källenius argues for a market-driven approach to decarbonization, rather than one that penalizes non-compliance, which could hinder investment in research and development.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

EU BEV Industry Faces Challenges Without Strong CO2 Targets and Tariffs

The European Union's battery electric vehicle (BEV) market is at risk of losing ground to Chinese-owned brands unless the EU enforces its planned CO2 emission reduction targets along with newly proposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). According to Transport & Environment (T&E), a leading environmental lobby group, these measures are essential to maintaining the competitive edge of European carmakers. The European Commission announced today that it will proceed with provisional tariffs on Chinese-manufactured EVs, signaling a critical step in addressing market imbalances.

CO2 Targets Key to Curbing Chinese BEV Imports

T&E's analysis shows a significant increase in the market share of Chinese-owned BEV brands, projecting that imports will constitute over 12% of the EU market this year, up from 8% last year. In contrast, non-Chinese brands are expected to see a slight rise to 13%. Without the enforcement of CO2 reduction targets, T&E forecasts that Chinese brands could capture nearly 15% of the market by next year, a trend that could weaken local BEV producers unless incentives are aligned to encourage a shift towards carbon-neutral vehicles.

The EU has established CO2 targets that require all automakers to achieve net zero emissions across their fleets by 2035, with interim milestones starting next year. However, recent debates and scrutiny have created uncertainty, prompting resistance from industry players. Aurelien De Meaux, CEO of Electra, a Paris-based charging start-up, emphasized the need for policy stability, stating, "The path to 2035, including specific CO2 milestones, was established in 2014 and 2019. We rely on this stability to make informed and effective investments."

Tariffs Alone May Not Protect Western BEV Producers

While the European Commission's provisional tariffs aim to level the playing field, a report by the Rhodium Group suggests that tariffs alone might not suffice. Chinese brands continue to enjoy profit margins that can absorb the costs of EU tariffs, whereas Western brands like Tesla and BMW, which manufacture in China, could see diminished profitability if tariffs are enforced. This dynamic has led to concerns that the tariffs may inadvertently harm European carmakers with overseas production facilities.

Additionally, China's response to these tariffs has included the potential for retaliatory measures on other goods, and its automakers are considering expanding production capacity overseas. Since 2022, 11 Chinese-owned EV plants have been planned in Europe, but only three have advanced past initial planning, primarily due to tariff uncertainties.

The situation is further complicated by instability in the battery production sector. According to T&E, 59% of the planned battery production capacity in Europe is "less likely" to proceed by 2030, adding to the challenges faced by the EU's BEV industry. Maintaining a clear and consistent regulatory approach will be crucial to incentivizing local production and reducing dependency on imports, ensuring the long-term sustainability of Europe's BEV market.

EU Proposes Definitive Duties on Chinese Battery Electric Vehicle Imports

The European Commission has officially proposed imposing definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, signaling a significant escalation in trade measures aimed at protecting the EU’s automotive industry. The proposed duties, ranging from 17% to over 36%, target Chinese companies accused of receiving unfair subsidies that undermine European competitors.

According to the proposal, specific duty rates have been set for different Chinese automakers. BYD would face a 17% duty, Geely 19.3%, and SAIC the highest at 36.3%. Other cooperating companies would be subject to a 21.3% duty, while non-cooperating firms would also see a 36.3% rate. Notably, Tesla, which exports vehicles from its Shanghai plant, is proposed to face an individual duty rate of 9% due to its full cooperation with the Commission's investigation.

The European Commission's investigation, which examined over 100 firms, concluded that Chinese subsidies to these companies create an unfair competitive advantage. The proposal reflects the Commission's conviction that it has accurately assessed the extent of these subsidies, particularly in Tesla's case.

Interested parties have until August 30 to provide feedback on the proposal, after which the Commission will review the comments. The proposal is expected to be adopted unless a qualified majority of EU member states—15 out of 27 countries representing 65% of the EU population—votes against it. If approved, the final decision will be published in the EU’s official journal by October 30, with the measures set to last for five years.

The Commission had previously set slightly higher provisional countervailing duties in early July, but the current proposal has been adjusted following "technical corrections." It was confirmed that there would be no retroactive collection of duties for registered imports during the three months before the imposition of the provisional duties. However, Chinese exporters will still need to provide guarantees until the final duties are enforced.

These countervailing duties will be in addition to the standard 10% import duty already levied on BEV imports. Despite China's request for consultations with the World Trade Organization (WTO), the EU remains confident that its investigation and measures are fully compatible with WTO rules and does not anticipate any delays in the implementation timeline.

PGM Demand from Hydrogen Sector to Grow in 2025, But at a Slower Pace

PGM

The hydrogen industry’s demand for platinum group metals (PGMs), particularly platinum and iridium, is set to increase in 2025, though at a slower rate than previously anticipated due to delays in hydrogen project development.

According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), demand for platinum in hydrogen applications surged by 123% year-on-year in 2023, albeit from a small base. A further 32% increase is expected in 2025 as proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers and hydrogen fuel cells continue to drive PGM consumption. This new demand segment could help offset the declining use of PGMs in autocatalysts as the automotive sector transitions away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

Hydrogen Economy’s Impact on PGM Market

Hydrogen-related demand for platinum, iridium, and ruthenium is also expected to support palladium demand, despite palladium not being directly used in hydrogen applications. As hydrogen-sector platinum demand rises, more palladium will be substituted for platinum in ICE vehicles, thereby increasing automotive palladium demand and lifting overall PGM prices.

The WPIC projects that 11% of global platinum demand will come from hydrogen applications by 2030, totaling 900,000 ounces (oz). By 2040, hydrogen energy production is expected to be the largest end-market for platinum, with projected demand reaching 3.5 million oz.

Hydrogen Investments and Policy Support Growing

Despite slow project development, global hydrogen investments have exceeded $300 billion through 2030, with 61 governments adopting national hydrogen strategies as of 2024.

According to Heraeus Precious Metals Germany head of trading Dominik Sperzel, declining costs and technological advancements will strengthen the hydrogen economy’s long-term viability.

The EU is actively supporting hydrogen infrastructure, having allocated over €100 million for hydrogen refueling stations across seven EU countries, including Poland. Additionally, in May 2024, the EU adopted its hydrogen and gas decarbonization package, creating a regulatory framework for dedicated hydrogen infrastructure.

In July 2024, the Hydrogen Council reported that six European hydrogen projects reached final investment decisions (FID). Globally, hydrogen projects reaching FID have increased sevenfold since 2020, from 102 committed projects to 434 in 2024.

Challenges Remain Despite Positive Outlook

While the long-term outlook for PGM demand remains strong, challenges persist. Many hydrogen projects lack financing, and infrastructure limitations have slowed development. Additionally, while hydrogen subsidies have grown from $50 billion to $300 billion since 2022, actual fund disbursement only began in mid-2024, slowing project acceleration.

Despite these hurdles, WPIC research director Edward Sterck remains optimistic, stating, "Now that subsidies are beginning to flow, development will accelerate quickly, driving consumer demand for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)."

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

EU States Approve Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles Amidst Ongoing Negotiations

The European Union has taken a significant step towards imposing tariffs on Chinese battery electric vehicle (BEV) imports, a decision that will have far-reaching implications for the global auto industry. On October 30, EU member states approved tariffs on Chinese BEV imports for the next five years. This move follows the European Commission's slight adjustments to the duty rates after receiving input from various stakeholders.

Tariffs Take Effect October 31

If no agreements are reached between the European Commission and individual companies, these definitive duties will be implemented starting on October 31. The proposed tariffs, which have been met with mixed reactions, required support from a qualified majority of 15 EU countries representing 65% of the population to pass. Despite opposition from Germany, which has raised concerns about the potential impact on the auto industry, the proposal was ultimately approved.

German MEP Michael Bloss criticized his country’s stance, stating, "This capitulation to China is not only weak; it harms Europe." Bloss, a spokesperson for the Greens on climate and industry policy, argues that stronger measures are necessary to protect European industry from unfair competition.

The European Commission continues to emphasize that any agreement reached with China must comply with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and be effective in addressing harmful subsidies. Negotiations between the EU and Chinese officials are ongoing, with China's commerce ministry confirming that discussions will resume on October 7.

The new countervailing duties, which add to the existing 10% import duty on BEVs, include a 17% tariff on BYD, a slight decrease from the earlier proposed rate. Geely’s rate was lowered to 18.8%, while Tesla, exporting from China, will face a 7.8% duty. Other companies that cooperated with the EU inquiry face a 20.7% tariff, and non-cooperating firms will be subject to a 35.3% duty.

China Stands Firm on Metals Export Controls, Future Moves Remain Unclear

China is intensifying its export controls on crucial materials and metals but has left the international community guessing about what might be next on the list. Beginning on September 15, antimony—a metal with significant dual-use applications—will fall under these new restrictions, a move consistent with recent measures applied to gallium, germanium, and graphite over the past year.

During a press briefing, when asked whether tungsten, another key material where China holds a dominant market share, might soon face similar controls, He Yadong, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, remained vague. He reiterated that China will continue to implement export controls "in accordance with laws and regulations," without specifying additional metals that might be affected.

He emphasized that the controls on antimony, used primarily in fire-retardant materials and solar glass, align with "prevailing international practices" and are not targeted at any particular country or region. Despite these assurances, the timing of the announcement has fueled speculation that China's tightening grip on critical materials could be a response to recent trade frictions with the European Union.

In particular, some analysts view the new controls as a reaction to the EU's countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles (EVs). After the EU imposed provisional duties in July, Beijing requested consultations, seeking to have the tariffs reduced or eliminated. However, the final duties remained only slightly adjusted. In retaliation, China has filed a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging these duties.

The impending antimony export controls have already driven up prices in China, with foreign buyers scrambling to secure supplies amid an increasingly tight market. European buyers, in particular, are finding it challenging to source antimony, exacerbating market pressures.

Further escalating trade tensions, China has launched an investigation into EU dairy product imports, following the EU's imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel imports. He Yadong downplayed suggestions that this move was retaliatory, explaining that it was initiated in response to a petition from China's domestic industry, contrasting it with the EU's unprompted investigation into Chinese EVs.

These developments underscore the growing strain in trade relations between China and several Western nations. As these tensions mount, concerns over the security of global supply chains have intensified. At the same time, Chinese companies are increasingly looking to expand their production capabilities overseas as a way to navigate these emerging trade barriers.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.