Metal Craft US Expansion Shows How Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Are Reshaping Manufacturing

Metal Craft Spinning and Stamping

Metal Craft US expansion shows how US metal tariffs are changing cross-border manufacturing decisions. The Ontario-based fabricator plans to invest $1.3mn in a new plant in Niagara Falls, New York. The move is meant to reduce the cost pressure created by US steel and aluminum tariffs. As a result, Metal Craft US expansion reflects a wider industrial response to rising trade barriers.

The project includes renovations, machining equipment, and installation at a 25,000ft² industrial site. It is also expected to create 17 jobs. That makes the investment modest in size but important in meaning. Therefore, Metal Craft US expansion is less about scale and more about strategic positioning inside the US market.

The business logic is straightforward. Nearly three-quarters of Metal Craft’s customer base is in the United States. Serving those customers from inside the US can reduce tariff exposure and improve commercial flexibility. Consequently, US metal tariffs are influencing plant location decisions as much as product pricing.

US Metal Tariffs Are Pushing Manufacturers Toward Local Production

US metal tariffs are pushing foreign manufacturers to rethink how they serve the American market. President Donald Trump’s 50pc tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised the cost of cross-border supply for many producers. That pressure is especially strong for firms with heavy US sales exposure. As a result, some companies now see US production as a defensive necessity.

This shift matters because it changes investment patterns, not just trade flows. Instead of paying higher tariff costs, manufacturers may move part of their operations into the United States. That can protect customer relationships and preserve margins. Therefore, steel and aluminum tariffs are starting to reshape manufacturing geography in North America.

Cross-Border Manufacturing Now Faces a Higher Strategic Cost

Cross-border manufacturing has become harder to justify when tariff pressure stays high. Metal Craft fabricates products for roofing, construction equipment, furniture, and other industrial uses. These are practical end markets where cost competitiveness and delivery reliability matter. Meanwhile, tariff friction can quickly weaken both.

The broader implication is clear. Companies that rely heavily on US customers may now favor US-based processing, fabrication, or finishing capacity. That does not mean cross-border trade will disappear. However, it does mean the cost of staying outside the US has increased materially. Consequently, Metal Craft US expansion may become part of a wider trend among foreign metal fabricators.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This investment matters because it shows tariffs are doing more than raising prices. They are influencing where companies place real industrial assets. If tariff policy stays firm, more fabricators may choose local US production over cross-border exposure.

US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs as CBP recalculates duties

IEEPA

US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs, forcing CBP to recalculate duties. The ruling follows a Supreme Court decision that found the emergency tariffs unlawful. As a result, US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs with broad relief for importers.

Refund order widens relief beyond lawsuit filers

The judge directed refunds for unliquidated entries and for liquidations not yet final. Therefore, CBP must adjust final duties across a wide set of shipments. Thousands of companies already filed claims after paying large emergency duties. The tariffs collected about $175bn during their nearly year-long run.

Interest costs and liquidity risks move to the forefront

Interest payments now raise the stakes for the Treasury and for importers. The administration conceded it must pay interest on required refunds. Meanwhile, analysts warn monthly interest could reach $700mn if delays persist. US court orders refunds on Trump's IEEPA tariffs, and that shift tightens pressure to execute quickly.

Delay risk has created a secondary market for refund rights. Some firms may offer immediate cash at steep discounts. However, faster processing could limit pressure on smaller importers. For supply chains, refunds can restore working capital for metals, components, and inventory rebuilds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This decision resets landed-cost math for many importers in one stroke. However, refund timing will drive who benefits most from the ruling. Companies that map entries and documentation fastest will capture the cash first.

EU stalls US trade deal as Greenland tariff row escalates

Greenland

EU stalls US trade deal as a direct response to President Trump's Greenland-linked tariff threats. EU leaders will meet on 22 January to coordinate a unified response and reassess transatlantic economic engagement. Meanwhile, the European Parliament is preparing to freeze implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed last summer. As a result, EU stalls US trade deal at precisely the moment businesses across North America and Europe seek stability.

Greenland tariffs derail EU-US trade deal momentum

EU leaders are weighing a tough response after Trump threatened to annex Greenland and impose a new 10pc tariff. The measures would hit imports from France, Germany and five other European countries from 1 February, rising to 25pc in June. The threatened tariffs specifically target countries involved in a military mission in Denmark’s Greenland territory, widening the geopolitical rift.

The stalled EU-US trade deal had locked in a 15pc US baseline tariff and 0pc tariffs on selected EU-bound US exports. However, lawmakers now argue that EU stalls US trade deal implementation until Washington withdraws its Greenland-linked tariff threats. As a result, European politicians are signalling that no agreement offering 0pc tariffs can move forward under open coercive pressure.

European Parliament trade chair Bernd Lange urged using all available tools, including the anti-coercion instrument (ACI). Meanwhile, EPP group leader Manfred Weber said that approval of the pact is “not possible at this stage”. Their stance confirms that EU stalls US trade deal not just tactically, but as part of a wider strategic rethink.

Anti-coercion instrument raises stakes for supply chains

The EU’s anti-coercion instrument would allow Brussels to curb US access to goods, services and public procurement markets. Therefore, any escalation could hit key transatlantic value chains, including autos, machinery, chemicals and high-end manufactured goods. For metals, this would feed into steel, aluminium, copper and specialty alloy demand linked to these sectors.

The ACI also covers foreign direct investment and financial markets, increasing uncertainty for cross-border industrial projects. As a result, companies with integrated EU-US manufacturing footprints face higher risk premia and more complex trade planning. This comes as tariffs already feature prominently in US economic policy, further complicating capital allocation decisions.

The Greenland dispute will also follow leaders to Davos, where Trump and senior EU figures will share a stage. Any harsh rhetoric could harden positions and accelerate planning for retaliatory steps on both sides. Investors and industrial players will watch closely for signals on how far the EU is willing to push the ACI lever.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The current standoff shows how quickly geopolitics can override the economic logic of a hard-won trade deal. For metals and manufacturing supply chains, the real risk is not a single tariff move, but a sustained cycle of coercive measures and retaliation. Firms that diversify sourcing, build tariff resilience into contracts and hedge regulatory risk will be better positioned if this dispute drags on.

USMCA extension under scrutiny as Mexico pushes to keep pact alive

Marcelo Ebrard

Mexico is working to secure a USMCA extension even as Trump questions the pact’s value and raises uncertainty. Mexican officials frame the USMCA extension as essential to protecting manufacturing supply chains that link Mexico, the US and Canada. For investors and manufacturers, the USMCA extension will determine how predictable North American trade rules remain over the next decade.

USMCA extension review will shape North American trade stability

Mexico’s economy minister says negotiators are progressing on the scheduled USMCA review, aiming to conclude the process by 1 July. This review could unlock a 16-year USMCA extension if all three governments agree. However, failure to secure that commitment would push the agreement into annual reviews, which would inject ongoing political risk into trade and investment planning.

The USMCA replaced NAFTA in 2020 and now underpins a large share of Mexico’s export-led growth. Trump’s recent comments that the pact offers “no real advantage” signal possible resistance to a smooth USMCA extension. As a result, companies in autos, energy and manufacturing must factor in scenarios where tariff policy changes more frequently, even if the core agreement nominally survives. Analysts also expect some tariffs on Mexican exports to remain in place whether or not a full 16-year USMCA extension is agreed.

Security tensions complicate the path to a USMCA extension

Security and migration tensions now overlap with the economic debate around the USMCA extension. The US has pressed Mexico to show faster progress on disrupting trafficking networks and fentanyl flows. After a call between the two foreign ministers, both sides reaffirmed the strategic importance of the partnership, yet Washington publicly called “incremental progress” on border security unacceptable.

Meanwhile, threats of possible US military action against criminal groups in Mexico have raised political sensitivity in Mexico City. President Sheinbaum has publicly ruled out any US military intervention after what she described as a “good conversation” with Trump. These tensions create a more fragile backdrop for the USMCA extension process, since domestic politics in both countries can quickly spill over into trade negotiations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The USMCA extension is becoming a litmus test for how North America manages the intersection of trade, security and domestic politics. Even if the treaty survives in its current form, the drift toward more conditional and frequently reviewed trade rules will raise the cost of capital and encourage companies to diversify risk within the region. For metals and industrial supply chains, boardrooms should treat the USMCA extension not as a given, but as a scenario that must be actively hedged.

Greenland critical minerals remain trapped behind cost and politics

Greenland

Greenland critical minerals remain largely untapped despite renewed geopolitical attention and massive resource potential. Greenland critical minerals, including rare earths, molybdenum and other strategic metals, face geological, financial and political hurdles. As a result, Greenland critical minerals will not quickly become a major new supply hub without heavy state-backed investment.

Geopolitics raise the profile of Greenland critical minerals

Trump’s push to acquire Greenland has thrust the island’s strategic value back into the spotlight. The US administration frames the issue primarily as national security, but officials also acknowledge the importance of Greenland critical minerals. However, Europe has pushed back strongly, with Denmark and other European leaders defending Greenland’s sovereignty and warning about US pressure tactics.

Tensions have escalated as Washington links the acquisition debate to tariffs on countries that oppose the move. Meanwhile, US, Danish and Greenlandic officials have failed to reach common ground in recent talks. This stand-off adds political uncertainty that further complicates long-term planning around Greenland critical minerals. Investors now must factor in both resource risk and geopolitical risk.

Resource scale contrasts with extraction and infrastructure hurdles

Greenland holds some of the world’s largest undeveloped rare earth and critical mineral resources. Geological surveys estimate tens of millions of tonnes of rare earths and significant potential in molybdenum, graphite, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, titanium and platinum group metals. However, Greenland critical minerals remain unproduced at scale because projects face harsh weather, complex geology and almost nonexistent infrastructure.

Operating in Greenland requires long logistics chains, specialised equipment and high-cost power solutions. Therefore, unit costs can exceed those of competing projects in more accessible regions. The government’s ban on uranium mining since 2021 also constrains project design where uranium is associated with rare earths. Without substantial public financing, many deposits remain technically attractive but commercially marginal.

Projects depend on government-backed funding and secure offtake

Early-stage projects illustrate both the promise and constraints of Greenland critical minerals. US-based Critical Metals’ Tanbreez project claims a huge share of global heavy rare earth potential and has filled its entire planned concentrate output with offtake contracts. However, the project still has not reached commercial production and relies on a tentative $120mn letter of interest from the US Export-Import Bank.

Similarly, Greenland Resources’ Malmberg molybdenum project has a long-term exploitation permit and supply agreements with European steel and metallurgical firms. As a result, European institutions now view the project as a strategic source for defense-related molybdenum demand. Even so, Malmberg also depends on significant EU-linked funding support to bridge the gap between geological potential and economic reality.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Greenland critical minerals sit at the intersection of security politics, industrial policy and project finance. For the US and EU, supporting these projects is less about cheap tonnage and more about diversified, allied supply for sensitive value chains. For investors and operators, success in Greenland will hinge on blending geology with patient capital, sovereign support and realistic timelines rather than expecting a quick rare earths windfall.

Trump 10pc tariffs plan raises fresh uncertainty for global trade

Trump tariffs

Trump 10pc tariffs are emerging as a backup weapon in Washington’s trade arsenal as legal scrutiny intensifies. Trump 10pc tariffs would act as a temporary bridge if the Supreme Court strikes down his 2025 emergency duties, reshaping how the White House uses trade law. For companies exposed to cross-border supply chains, Trump 10pc tariffs add another layer of risk on top of already complex tariff regimes.

Legal uncertainty around Trump 10pc tariffs and emergency powers

The administration is preparing a fallback plan that would immediately impose a temporary 10pc duty on imports if the Supreme Court overturns current emergency tariffs. Officials signal that Trump 10pc tariffs would likely rely on Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows up to 15pc tariffs for 150 days to address balance-of-payments issues. However, any extension beyond that window would require explicit congressional approval, injecting political risk into what has so far been a unilateral tariff strategy.

At the same time, the White House is mapping a second phase based on well-tested authorities such as Section 232 and Section 301. These tools target specific products or countries on national security or unfair trade grounds but require investigations, public consultations and time. As a result, Trump 10pc tariffs would function as a legal stopgap while more targeted measures are built, rather than a permanent framework. The pending Supreme Court decision on the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will determine how far presidents can stretch emergency powers into broad-based tariff policy.

The court’s ruling will directly impact emergency tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China justified by fentanyl-related “economic emergencies,” along with broader duties of 10pc and higher on nearly all US trading partners. It will also affect emergency measures aimed at Brazil and India, where tariffs were tied to alleged speech suppression and Russian crude imports. But tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and auto parts imposed under traditional authorities would remain intact, preserving some of the most consequential industry-specific barriers.

Revenue, refunds and the corporate “tariff overhang”

A critical question troubling even conservative justices is whether sweeping tariffs function as taxes that only Congress may levy. The US Treasury has collected nearly $260bn in customs duties during the first 11 months of Trump’s second term, creating a massive “tariff overhang.” Hundreds of companies have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds, turning the Supreme Court decision into a potential trigger for complex, multi-year repayment disputes.

The administration argues that tariffs are policy instruments, not taxes, and warns that broad refunds would be administratively chaotic and fiscally painful. Trump himself has said repaying duties “would be a complete mess,” signalling that even if the court limits IEEPA, the White House will resist rapid, sweeping restitution. For global manufacturers, traders and end-users, this means that current and historic tariff exposure may remain a financial and legal uncertainty for years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

For metals and industrial supply chains, the Trump 10pc tariffs debate is about far more than headline percentages. It is redefining the legal boundaries of presidential trade power, shaping how future administrations can weaponise tariffs in strategic sectors from steel and aluminium to critical minerals. Boardrooms should treat this not as a one-off legal drama, but as a structural shift toward more politicised, less predictable trade governance.

Trump Threatens Tariffs on Canada as Legal and Political Risks Mount

Tariffs on Canada

Trump threatens tariffs on Canada with an additional 10 percentage points. The announcement followed cancelled talks with Ottawa. Trump threatens tariffs on Canada without specifying an effective date. Existing measures already affect select autos, steel, and aluminum. However, most bilateral trade remains exempt under USMCA. Therefore, Trump threatens tariffs on Canada but practical exposure hinges on carve-outs.

Markets assess the real tariff burden despite heated rhetoric. The effective average US tariff on Canadian imports was 3% in August. Only 10% of Canadian imports faced any tariff at all. Energy commodities were exempt from Trump’s actions. As a result, headline rates overstate current trade frictions. However, uncertainty still elevates hedging and inventory risks.

Political optics complicate the trade backdrop before key legal milestones. Trump cited an Ontario ad featuring Ronald Reagan on tariffs. He criticized the ad’s World Series broadcast before removal. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court will hear a tariff case on 5 November. The administration also explores alternative legal bases for duties. Therefore, path dependency may shift toward delegated trade authorities.

Tariff Signals, Diplomacy, and Summit Theater

Diplomatic channels remain open despite sharp public statements. Canada’s minister Dominic LeBlanc signaled readiness to resume talks. Prime minister Mark Carney noted Ottawa cannot control US policy. Trump said he has no intention to meet Carney at the summits. However, ASEAN and APEC provide forums for staff-level engagement. Therefore, a managed pause remains possible even without a leader meeting.

Implications for Metals, Autos, and Cross-Border Supply Chains

Incremental tariffs would ripple through metals and autos first. Canadian steel and aluminum could face higher cost pass-throughs. Auto parts chains would reprice contracts and logistics. However, USMCA exemptions could blunt near-term impacts. Importers should map exposure beneath headline rates. As a result, contract clauses and surcharge formulas matter. Legal outcomes will steer pricing and allocation decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A further tariff hike would tighten margins in steel and autos while adding legal uncertainty. Watch the Supreme Court hearing, any USMCA carve-outs, and exemption continuity for energy and critical inputs.

US Sanctions on Russia Set for a “Pickup” Under Trump Administration

Trump - Putin

White House Signals New Measures on US Sanctions on Russia

The US sanctions on Russia are set to intensify, according to the White House. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will unveil a “substantial pickup” in measures soon. The announcement could come after market close today or tomorrow morning. The timing aligns with President Trump’s planned meeting with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte. The administration frames US sanctions on Russia as part of a broader pressure campaign.

US policy has diverged from recent EU and UK escalations. However, officials suggest Washington prefers tariffs to traditional sanctions tools. As a result, the only energy-related move so far is a 25% tariff on imports from India. Officials argue tariffs can pressure Moscow’s oil flows indirectly. Nevertheless, this path keeps US sanctions on Russia distinct from allied approaches.

Tariff Preference Complicates Allied Coordination

Senior officials have repeatedly emphasized tariffs over sanctions. Therefore, Bessent urged the EU to consider tariffs on buyers of Russian crude. The call specifically mentioned large importers, especially China. Meanwhile, alignment gaps with Europe could reduce policy impact. Consistent transatlantic execution typically strengthens enforcement outcomes.

Trump also highlighted outreach to India on crude imports. On 15 October, he said Prime Minister Modi promised to halt purchases. However, Indian refiners reported no instruction to cut imports. This creates uncertainty about near-term flows and compliance. Market participants therefore await details of any new US sanctions on Russia.

Market Watch: Energy Trade and Compliance Risks

The new phase of US sanctions on Russia may target logistics and finance. Consequently, traders and refiners face rising compliance and pricing risks. Any measures that tighten oil trade could widen differentials. Additionally, insurers and shippers may reassess risk exposure. Therefore, immediate clarity on scope and timelines will matter. Companies should prepare contingency plans and documentation reviews.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The administration’s tariff-first stance signals unconventional pressure mechanics. Yet sanctions efficacy depends on coordination and enforceability. Watch for concrete measures, carve-outs, and timelines that determine real market impact.

European Aluminium Renews Call for Aluminium Scrap Export Restrictions

European Aluminium Scrap

US Tariff Hike Intensifies Scrap Supply Pressures in Europe

European Aluminium has renewed its push for export restrictions on aluminium scrap following US president Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on EU steel and aluminium imports to 50%. The association warns that the move could accelerate scrap outflows to the US, worsening an already tight supply situation in Europe.

The industry group first raised the proposal in 2018 when the US imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. Scrap aluminium was excluded from the sanctions, making it an attractive alternative for US buyers seeking to avoid higher costs on primary aluminium. With the latest tariff hike, European Aluminium says the outflow has intensified, threatening domestic recycling and semi-fabrication operations.

Rising Global Demand for Aluminium Scrap Fuels Competition

Strong demand from buyers in India and other Asian markets has already strained European scrap supply. These buyers offer higher prices, benefiting from lower labour and energy costs and weaker environmental regulations. Additionally, primary aluminium producers in Europe are increasingly using higher-grade scrap to meet automotive customers’ sustainability goals.

European Aluminium reported that scrap exports to the US surged 273% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, already accounting for two-thirds of total exports in 2024. Without swift EU intervention, the association warns that the situation could escalate into a “full-blown scrap crisis,” jeopardizing the viability of Europe’s aluminium recycling and semi-fabrication industry.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The surge in US demand for European aluminium scrap highlights the vulnerability of supply chains to trade policy shifts. For the EU, balancing open trade with the need to safeguard strategic raw materials will be critical. Without targeted restrictions or incentives to retain scrap domestically, Europe risks undermining its own circular economy and low-carbon manufacturing goals.

Ferro-Titanium Section 232 Tariffs Requested by US Producer Galt Alloys

Galt Alloys

Galt Alloys petitioned the Commerce Department to include ferro-titanium Section 232 tariffs on imports. The Ohio-based producer argues foreign shipments depress domestic production and market prices significantly. This ferro-titanium Section 232 tariffs request could transform the US specialty alloys market dynamics.

Domestic Capacity Meets US Steel Industry Demand

Galt and Michigan-based AmeriTi possess sufficient capacity to supply America's annual requirements completely. The US imported only 2,022 tonnes of ferro-titanium in 2024, down 50% from 2021. Meanwhile, Canada, Estonia, Latvia, and the UK supplied 94% of total imports. These nations ship primarily powdered ferro-titanium, a premium product over lump form.

Import costs could increase 50% if tariffs apply after Trump doubled steel rates. Currently, ferro-titanium carries only a 3.7% general duty rate versus steel's 25%. Furthermore, the alloy remains exempt from Trump's "Liberation Day" measures entirely. The USMCA agreement also protects Canadian ferro-titanium from additional duties presently.

Strategic Implications for US Steel Manufacturing

Ferro-titanium acts as a critical deoxidizer and desulfurizer in steel production processes. The alloy contains 70% titanium with iron comprising the remaining balance. Therefore, securing domestic supply strengthens America's steel manufacturing independence and competitiveness. Galt claims imports prevent domestic expansion and profitability despite US price premiums.

Foreign producers contest dumping allegations with Latvia's LLR expecting no specific actions. However, the ferro-titanium Section 232 tariffs proposal aligns with broader protectionist policies. As a result, US steel producers face potential cost increases for essential inputs. Stakeholders must submit comments on Galt's petition by June 4th deadline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Galt's petition highlights the delicate balance between protecting domestic producers and maintaining competitive input costs for downstream manufacturers. With only two US ferro-titanium producers versus diverse import sources, tariffs could create supply vulnerabilities and price spikes. The 50% import decline since 2021 suggests market forces already favor domestic production without additional protection.

Bismuth Tellurium PV Demand Growth Driven by Solar Technology Expansion

Bismuth

Bismuth tellurium PV demand faces divergent growth trajectories as photovoltaic industry expansion supports bismuth consumption while trade conflicts constrain tellurium market development. The bismuth tellurium PV sector dynamics were highlighted at the 2025 China bismuth and tellurium development forum in Chenzhou, where industry experts analyzed critical materials supply chains for emerging solar technologies.

Bismuth Consumption Accelerates Through HJT Solar Battery Growth

Bismuth tellurium PV applications demonstrate strong growth potential, particularly in heterojunction (HJT) solar battery manufacturing. Global bismuth consumption reached 18,000-19,000 tonnes in 2024, with China representing approximately 40% at 6,600-6,800 tonnes according to Vital Technology Group. The HJT battery technology combines crystalline silicon advantages with thin film capabilities, requiring bismuth-based low-temperature welding materials.

Meanwhile, global HJT cell shipments surged from 4 GW in 2022 to 25 GW in 2024. Demand for low-temperature welding materials increased correspondingly from 2,000 tonnes in 2022 to 10,000 tonnes in 2024. Industry projections indicate HJT shipments will reach 80 GW in 2025, requiring 30,000 tonnes of specialized welding materials containing bismuth.

Tellurium Market Faces Trade-Related Headwinds

However, tellurium consumption encounters challenges despite growing photovoltaic industry demand. China dominates global tellurium production with 803 tonnes in 2024, representing 68% of worldwide output totaling 1,179 tonnes. The metal finds primary application in cadmium-telluride (Cd-Te) thin-film solar modules, consuming approximately 130 tonnes per gigawatt of production capacity.

Therefore, trade tensions between China and the US create uncertainty for tellurium demand growth. Major US manufacturer First Solar reduced sales guidance from 18-20 GW to 15.5-19.3 GW in April, citing trade uncertainty and higher tariffs imposed since President Trump's February inauguration. This guidance reduction directly impacts global Cd-Te consumption projections for 2025.

Building-Integrated PV Creates New Demand Channels

Furthermore, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications present emerging growth opportunities for both critical minerals. China plans significant BIPV capacity expansion, potentially increasing tellurium utilization according to China Triumph representatives. Global Cd-Te thin-film solar cell output reached 16 GW in 2024, indicating 2,080 tonnes of Cd-Te demand for absorption layer applications.

As a result, bismuth benefits from diversified application portfolios including automobile glass ink (19% of consumption), pigments (13%), catalysts (8%), and pharmaceuticals (8%). This diversification provides stability compared to tellurium's concentrated dependence on solar module manufacturing, which remains vulnerable to geopolitical trade disruptions affecting major consuming markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The contrasting trajectories of bismuth and tellurium in photovoltaic applications highlight how trade policies increasingly influence critical minerals demand patterns beyond traditional supply-side considerations. While technological advancement drives fundamental growth in both materials, tellurium's concentrated exposure to US-China trade tensions demonstrates the vulnerability of specialized critical minerals to geopolitical disruptions in key end-use sectors.

UK Delays ZEV Mandate for Hybrids to 2035

Hybrids, ZEV

New Flexibility for Carmakers Amid Trade Uncertainty

The UK government has revised its zero emission vehicle (ZEV) policy, extending the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) mandate deadline from 2030 to 2035. Gasoline and diesel vehicle sales will still end in 2030, but hybrid models will enjoy a five-year extension. Additionally, carmakers can now use low-emission non-ZEVs to earn ZEV compliance credits until 2029—three years longer than initially planned.

Transport secretary Heidi Alexander stated the delay reflects "global economic challenges." The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) welcomed the flexibility, citing the need to absorb shocks from new US tariffs on auto imports.

Industry Reactions Mixed on Long-Term Impact

Jaguar Land Rover paused US exports to assess the consequences of President Trump's tariffs. SMMT chief Mike Hawes urged continued UK-US negotiations to protect industry competitiveness. However, some industry leaders warned the delay could weaken the UK’s position in the global EV transition.

Dan Caesar of Electric Vehicles UK criticized the decision, citing China’s aggressive EV push. He warned that delaying the ZEV transition could threaten UK automotive jobs and innovation if local firms fall behind on battery electric vehicle (BEV) development.

Balancing Transition with Affordability

Others acknowledged the policy's need for flexibility amid rising trade pressures and consumer price concerns. Quentin Wilson, founder of EV advocacy group FairCharge, expressed cautious support for the delay. While disagreeing with extending HEV classification as ZEVs, he noted the move offers carmakers breathing room during a volatile trade environment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UK’s decision reflects a growing trend: governments are recalibrating green targets to accommodate economic and geopolitical headwinds. While industry needs stability, too much flexibility could compromise long-term electrification goals. The race to lead in battery technology waits for no one.

Most South African Mineral Exports to US Avoid Tariff Impact

South African Mineral Mining

PGMs, Gold, and Titanium Spared in Latest US Tariff Round

Most of South Africa’s mineral exports to the US, including platinum group metals (PGMs), have been exempted from new US tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s 2 April tariff announcement excluded PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal from the list of affected imports.

These exemptions are significant, as PGMs accounted for 76% of the R65.3 billion ($3.4 billion) in mineral and precious metal exports from South Africa to the US in 2024. However, iron ore and diamonds from South Africa will be subject to a 30% tariff, potentially straining trade ties and impacting specific sectors.

Auto Tariffs Threaten Downstream PGM Demand

A separate 25% tariff on US vehicle imports came into effect on 6 June, with auto parts tariffs set for 3 May. According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), these tariffs may reduce US auto demand, which in turn could lower PGM consumption.

PGMs—especially platinum, palladium, and rhodium—are essential in autocatalysts that reduce vehicle emissions. Lower car production would decrease catalyst demand, causing short-term price volatility in these critical metals.

Still, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for PGMs, citing structural demand drivers in clean mobility and hydrogen.

Limited Retaliation Options for South Africa

Despite the exemptions, broader trade tensions could still hurt South Africa’s mining sector. South Africa ships 7% of its total exports to the US, while accounting for just 0.25% of US imports—a disparity that limits its ability to retaliate.

Think tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies emphasized the need for diversification, urging South African exporters to find alternative markets. With the global economy under pressure from rising trade barriers, the ripple effect could dampen overall commodity demand and GDP growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The exemptions granted to South Africa’s key mineral exports show strategic prioritization by the US to maintain critical supply chains. Yet, the indirect consequences—especially in sectors like automotive and high-tech—may eventually flow back to impact even exempted metals. The situation reinforces the need for South Africa to accelerate market diversification and downstream value-add strategies in mining.

Titanium Exempt from New US Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Broader Aerospace Uncertainty

Titanium Ingot

Titanium Scrap and Alloys Dodge Latest Tariff Wave, but Market Unease Persists

Titanium and its derivatives, including scrap and ferro-titanium, were notably exempted from the latest round of US reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. Annex II of President Donald Trump’s executive order outlined the list of exemptions, sparing various nonferrous metals, including titanium, from additional duties.

However, existing tariffs on titanium products remain unchanged. These include a 60% duty on Chinese titanium sponge and a 15% duty on unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia. While titanium scrap imports from the EU and UK are also exempt, pre-existing duties—such as the 20% tariff on Chinese titanium added in March—still apply.

Meanwhile, concerns linger about supply disruptions, particularly in vacuum-grade titanium scrap. The US depends heavily on EU and UK sources to meet demand for ingot melting in aerospace-grade production.

Aerospace Industry Caught in the Crossfire of Uncertain Trade Measures

The aerospace supply chain could still face ripple effects, especially concerning finished parts, components, and jet engines. Major OEMs such as Airbus, Boeing, and Rolls-Royce remain cautious, stating that they are assessing the impact of the new tariffs.

Jet engines like CFM’s Leap-1A and 1B, which power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max, span a US-French supply chain, raising questions about the impact of cross-border tariffs on subcomponents. Landing gear systems produced by Safran for the Boeing 787 and turbine modules from GE in the US to France further complicate the situation.

While titanium producers currently report no impact on OEMs for titanium-based parts, the ambiguity surrounding composite materials and mixed-alloy components could lead to future disruptions.

China's Tariff Retaliation Raises Stakes for US Aerospace Exports

In response, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, with no exemptions, escalating the trade conflict. This will impact US titanium exports to China—totaling 1,300t in 2024—mainly in bars, rods, and wire, as well as aerospace components vital to Comac’s C919 jet program.

China’s C919 relies on US-sourced Leap-1C engines, avionics from Honeywell Aerospace, GE Aerospace, and Collins Aerospace, making it vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

Although China sources the majority of its titanium domestically, these duties highlight the fragile interdependence of global aerospace production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium’s tariff exemption provides momentary relief to US aerospace and scrap processors, but the real uncertainty lies in composite supply chains. As the US and China entrench their trade defenses, aerospace firms must prepare for further regulatory fragmentation. Strategic stockpiling, diversified sourcing, and diplomatic engagement will define resilience in the next phase of industrial policy shifts.

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

U.S, China

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

US President Donald Trump has accused China of breaching a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva earlier this month. During a White House press briefing, Trump claimed that Beijing "violated a big part of the agreement," though he provided no specifics. US trade officials and aides also offered no documentation or clarification, raising uncertainty over the deal’s durability.

The Geneva pact aimed to temporarily pause 125–145% tariffs, allowing limited breathing room for both sides until 10 August. However, exemptions remain narrow. For instance, China’s tariffs on US crude oil and LNG are still too high to restore meaningful trade flows. On the other hand, US propane exports could rebound due to lower effective tariffs and exemptions for key petrochemical feedstocks.

New Tariff Measures and Export Restrictions Stir Controversy

The trade dispute has evolved beyond traditional tariffs. The US Department of Commerce recently required NGL exporters to apply for export licenses for ethane and butane bound for China. The department cited concerns over dual-use military applications. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced new fees of $50/net ton on Chinese ship operators and $18/net ton on Chinese-built ships, effective this fall.

Adding further strain, China lifted some tech export restrictions, particularly for cloud services, while maintaining limits on rare earth exports to the US. These minerals are crucial for defense and electronics, making the move highly strategic.

Legal Challenges Undermine Tariff Legitimacy

A major legal complication emerged when the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs under the 1978 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The court concluded the law does not grant unlimited presidential authority over tariffs. Although a federal appeals court has stayed the ruling, the incident casts doubt on Trump’s long-term tariff strategy.

Trump criticized the idea of seeking Congressional approval for tariffs, stating it would involve "hundreds of people" and months of delay. Despite legal headwinds, Trump continues to favor unilateral action and hinted at resolving disputes directly with President Xi Jinping in the near future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trump’s renewed hardline stance on China—just weeks after a ceasefire—highlights the fragile nature of trade diplomacy. While tariffs offer political leverage, legal and structural challenges are mounting. Industrial stakeholders must prepare for an environment where regulatory unpredictability, rather than open markets, defines global trade norms.

Canada and Ontario to Fund Frontier Lithium's Conversion Plant in Thunder Bay

Frontier Lithium's

New facility to boost domestic lithium salt output and shield Ontario’s critical mineral sector from U.S. trade pressures.

Frontier Lithium, a Canadian pre-production mining firm, announced that both the Ontario provincial government and the Government of Canada plan to financially support its upcoming lithium conversion facility in Thunder Bay.

While the exact investment amount has not been disclosed, the company said the combined support will cover a “significant portion” of capital expenditures required for the project. Once completed, the facility will produce approximately 20,000 metric tonnes per year of lithium salts derived from Frontier’s PAK lithium project.

Lithium Strategy Targets U.S. Tariffs with Domestic Processing

The announcement comes amid renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump reimposed tariffs on Canadian exports, placing pressure on Canada's critical minerals sector.

Vic Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, stated that processing lithium at home is vital to counteract U.S. tariffs. “The frontline of our battle against Donald Trump’s tariffs starts in northern Ontario,” Fedeli emphasized, citing the province’s abundant supply of critical minerals as a key advantage.

Frontier’s Thunder Bay Project Supports North American Battery Supply Chain

The Thunder Bay facility is part of Canada’s broader strategy to strengthen domestic battery materials production and reduce reliance on foreign processing hubs. With this support, Frontier Lithium will advance its role in the North American EV and energy storage supply chain.

Although Frontier has not revealed total project costs, the backing from both levels of government positions the company to secure financing and accelerate construction timelines.

Trump Signals Hope for U.S.-China Trade Deal Amid Escalating Tariff War

Trump trade China

Markets react to mixed messages as tariff tensions deepen between the world’s largest economies

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a potential breakthrough in trade talks with China, reigniting global interest in a possible resolution.

At a White House press briefing, Trump stated that negotiations were "going very well" regarding a U.S.-China trade deal. He added that 18 countries have approached the U.S. to initiate bilateral trade agreements, which he claims could pave the way for a larger framework with China.

However, the optimism was short-lived. Markets remain volatile due to a lack of concrete progress. Since early April, Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners has rattled investors. The administration later paused some tariffs on 9 April after widespread market backlash, offering to negotiate with multiple countries.

Still, no formal trade agreements have been signed. The White House cited ongoing talks with India, describing them as “a roadmap” for future negotiations. Yet, no timeline or deliverables have been confirmed.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Face Major Roadblocks

Despite optimistic language, trade tensions with China are intensifying. The U.S. currently imposes a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China has applied a 125% counter-tariff, effectively halting commodity trade between the two nations.

The conflict extends beyond tariffs. China has begun targeting critical U.S. industries, including drone and defense manufacturing. The U.S. has retaliated with new sanctions, including planned port fees for Chinese-owned ships.

Experts suggest that both countries view the dispute through a larger strategic lens. According to Sinocism podcast host Bill Bishop, Beijing sees U.S. actions as attempts to contain China's growth—not just settle trade imbalances.

This strategic mistrust complicates the possibility of resolution. Bishop believes China is prepared for prolonged tensions and may be betting on U.S. domestic political instability to gain leverage.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut growth forecasts for both the U.S. and China, citing long-term economic damage from sustained tariffs.

Impact on Metals Market and Supply Chains

The deepening U.S.-China rift could heavily impact metal supply chains, particularly for rare earths, aluminum, and drone-related alloys. With tariffs choking cross-border flows, U.S. firms reliant on Chinese materials may face higher costs and extended lead times.

As of now, SuperMetalPrice analysts are monitoring copper, rare earths, and strategic alloys, which remain vulnerable to supply disruptions from escalating trade restrictions.

Tariff Shock Forces IMF to Cut Global Growth Forecast

IMF

Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Global Economic Revisions, Says IMF

Focus Keyphrase: IMF global growth forecast 2025 tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its 2025–2026 global growth outlook following steep new tariffs introduced by former President Donald Trump. The revised World Economic Outlook, released this week, shows a projected global GDP growth of just 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.3% per year forecast earlier this year.

The revision stems from Trump’s across-the-board tariff policies, which include 10% on most imports, 25% on steel and aluminum, and a record 145% on Chinese imports. These levels, the IMF noted, mark the highest effective US tariff rates in over a century.

🇺🇸 North America Faces Sharp Downturn

The IMF warns that the United States, Canada, and Mexico will suffer the most due to both tariffs and retaliatory trade measures. The US growth forecast dropped from 2.7% to 1.8% for 2025, while Mexico is now projected to shrink by 0.3% instead of growing, and Canada’s growth falls to 1.4%.

The IMF cited heightened policy uncertainty and weakened demand as key factors eroding economic confidence and investment. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to defend the tariffs, claiming they boost American capitalism and would incentivize onshore manufacturing.

Markets, however, responded negatively. US stock indices fell over 2%, and fears of a broader economic slowdown intensified following Trump’s renewed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates.

China and Eurozone Not Immune

The IMF also reduced its outlook for China, predicting a decline to 4.0% annual growth in 2025–2026, down from the previous forecast of 4.6%. The euro area will also see slower expansion at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Although Trump asserts tariffs are bringing “billions” into the US economy, the IMF argues that the "unpredictability of the trade environment" is undermining global recovery efforts and long-term economic planning.

EIA Cuts WTI Forecast by $7 on Trade War Fears

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy agency slashes oil demand and production outlook through 2026 amid economic uncertainty

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has sharply reduced its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil forecast due to escalating trade tensions. The benchmark U.S. crude is now expected to average $63.88 per barrel in 2025—down by $6.80 from last month’s estimate—and further decline to $57.48 in 2026, $7.49 below the previous projection.

Trade War Impacts Global Oil Demand

Ongoing trade disputes, especially between the U.S. and China, are significantly curbing global oil consumption. The EIA now expects worldwide demand to be nearly 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) lower in 2025 than forecasted just a month ago. For 2026, the reduction climbs to 620,000 b/d. These cuts reflect growing concerns over economic stagnation tied to U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions.

The delayed release of the April Short-Term Energy Outlook allowed the EIA to re-run models incorporating President Trump’s latest trade decisions. However, the forecast does not include updates from April 9, when Trump paused the harshest tariffs. Meanwhile, China has imposed new tariffs on U.S. goods, amplifying trade tensions.

Oil Price Forecasts Reflect Broader Weakness

Brent crude also saw significant downward revisions. The international benchmark is now forecast to average $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. These cuts align with a weakening demand outlook and lower expected production.

The EIA emphasized that its outlook remains “subject to significant uncertainty,” particularly as geopolitical and economic developments evolve rapidly. Banks and market analysts are also trimming their oil price forecasts, indicating broader skepticism in the market.

Lower Supply and Demand Across the Board

The EIA also cut its estimates for both global and U.S. oil production. Global output is expected to reach 104.1mn b/d in 2025 and 105.35mn b/d in 2026, down by 70,000 and 43,000 b/d respectively. In the U.S., domestic production is projected at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026—each figure 100,000 to 200,000 b/d lower than prior estimates.

U.S. consumption has been reduced to 20.38mn b/d for 2025 and 20.49mn b/d for 2026, down by 70,000 and 110,000 b/d respectively. These revisions underline the broad impact of trade policies and economic uncertainty on the energy sector.

As oil markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, all eyes are on future U.S.-China negotiations and their influence on crude pricing.

China and EU Resume Electric Vehicle Talks Amid Growing US Tariff Pressures

US tariff, China

Negotiations on Price Commitments Could Ease Trade Friction in the EV Market

China and the European Union (EU) have decided to resume negotiations regarding a price commitment mechanism for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This decision follows the EU's implementation of countervailing duties on Chinese BEV imports in 2024. The goal of these talks is to replace the tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), addressing ongoing trade tensions between China and the EU.

EU's Countervailing Duties and the Push for a Price Commitment Mechanism

In October 2024, the European Commission finalized its ruling on countervailing duties on BEVs imported from China, which came into effect at the end of October. These duties ranged from 17% to 35.3%, impacting major Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely. The aim was to counter what the EU viewed as unfair pricing practices by Chinese EV manufacturers. However, these tariffs have faced opposition from both China and European companies seeking to expand their market share in the fast-growing electric vehicle sector.

Despite early talks on a price commitment mechanism in November 2024, the discussions stalled without significant progress. However, on April 10, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that both sides had agreed to resume negotiations on the price commitments and to discuss broader issues of investment cooperation in the automotive industry.

US Tariffs Intensify the Pressure on China and the EU

The resumption of talks between China and the EU comes amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. As of April 11, 2025, the US imposed a 145% tariff rate on imports from China, adding additional pressure on Chinese manufacturers, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery sectors. US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which were initially implemented in 2024, compounded by those under the Biden administration, have made it nearly impossible for Chinese EVs and lithium-ion batteries to enter the US market.

In an effort to counterbalance the US's growing tariff measures, China has been seeking closer economic ties with the EU. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held discussions with EU President Ursula von der Leyen on April 8, 2025, addressing the need for structural solutions to re-balance bilateral trade relations. The talks have emphasized the urgency of enhancing market access for European businesses in China and forging a collaborative approach to the challenges posed by US tariffs.

Potential Impact on the Electric Vehicle Market

If China and the EU reach an agreement on the price commitment mechanism, it could significantly alter the landscape for Chinese EVs in Europe. Prior to the implementation of the countervailing duties, the EU accounted for about 28% of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) exports, which includes both BEVs and hybrid plug-in vehicles. However, the tariffs have drastically reduced Chinese EV exports to Europe.

The continuation of trade protectionist measures from both the US and the EU is putting immense pressure on China’s EV and battery markets, particularly as it struggles to enter key international markets. The future of Chinese electric vehicle exports largely hinges on these negotiations, and any breakthrough could bring Chinese-made EVs back into the competitive EU market.