Trump-Xi Tariff Talks Yield No Deal, TikTok Sale Path Clears

Trump-Xi

Trump-Xi tariff talks produced no tariff agreement on Friday. However, both sides signaled movement on a potential TikTok sale. Trump thanked Xi for “the TikTok approval” and cited progress on trade and fentanyl.

China’s readout framed the Trump-Xi tariff talks around fairness for Chinese firms. Beijing urged an “open, fair, non-discriminatory” US business environment. It also welcomed ByteDance’s negotiations with US buyers.

Earlier this year, Trump linked tariff relief to a TikTok sale. The Trump-Xi tariff talks did not resolve broad duties that now burden bilateral trade. US energy exports to China remain largely curtailed.

Tariffs, agriculture, and new measures

US soybean sales to China have lagged early in the 2025-26 season. Through two weeks, commitments trailed last year’s 5.94mn t pace. Meanwhile, Washington is assessing a 30pc broad tariff on Chinese imports.

China currently applies a broad 10pc tariff on US goods. It also adds 10–15pc on energy and farm commodities. Without a deal by 10 November, both sides warn rates could rise by 24 percentage points.

Beijing opened an antitrust probe into Nvidia last week. The US plans port fees on Chinese ship operators and vessels from 14 October. Those charges include $50/net ton and $18/net ton, respectively.

Diplomacy calendar ahead

Trump plans to meet Xi at APEC in South Korea on 31 October–1 November. He also outlined travel to China early next year. Xi may visit the US “at an appropriate time,” pending further progress.

The Chinese readout noted Xi’s 3 September military parade discussion. Both parties kept channels open despite unresolved tariff issues. Talks continue while agriculture and technology disputes persist.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff uncertainty continues to cloud pricing and procurement cycles. Near-term decisions on duties and platform divestment will shape fourth-quarter trade flows and 2026 planning across trans-Pacific supply chains.

Trump Threatens Tariffs on Canada as Legal and Political Risks Mount

Tariffs on Canada

Trump threatens tariffs on Canada with an additional 10 percentage points. The announcement followed cancelled talks with Ottawa. Trump threatens tariffs on Canada without specifying an effective date. Existing measures already affect select autos, steel, and aluminum. However, most bilateral trade remains exempt under USMCA. Therefore, Trump threatens tariffs on Canada but practical exposure hinges on carve-outs.

Markets assess the real tariff burden despite heated rhetoric. The effective average US tariff on Canadian imports was 3% in August. Only 10% of Canadian imports faced any tariff at all. Energy commodities were exempt from Trump’s actions. As a result, headline rates overstate current trade frictions. However, uncertainty still elevates hedging and inventory risks.

Political optics complicate the trade backdrop before key legal milestones. Trump cited an Ontario ad featuring Ronald Reagan on tariffs. He criticized the ad’s World Series broadcast before removal. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court will hear a tariff case on 5 November. The administration also explores alternative legal bases for duties. Therefore, path dependency may shift toward delegated trade authorities.

Tariff Signals, Diplomacy, and Summit Theater

Diplomatic channels remain open despite sharp public statements. Canada’s minister Dominic LeBlanc signaled readiness to resume talks. Prime minister Mark Carney noted Ottawa cannot control US policy. Trump said he has no intention to meet Carney at the summits. However, ASEAN and APEC provide forums for staff-level engagement. Therefore, a managed pause remains possible even without a leader meeting.

Implications for Metals, Autos, and Cross-Border Supply Chains

Incremental tariffs would ripple through metals and autos first. Canadian steel and aluminum could face higher cost pass-throughs. Auto parts chains would reprice contracts and logistics. However, USMCA exemptions could blunt near-term impacts. Importers should map exposure beneath headline rates. As a result, contract clauses and surcharge formulas matter. Legal outcomes will steer pricing and allocation decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A further tariff hike would tighten margins in steel and autos while adding legal uncertainty. Watch the Supreme Court hearing, any USMCA carve-outs, and exemption continuity for energy and critical inputs.