Brazil Critical Minerals Industry Needs Government Support to Move Downstream

Brazil, Critical Minerals

Brazil critical minerals industry development will depend on stronger government support, infrastructure and long-term capital if the country wants to move beyond raw material extraction. Industry executives at the Energy Summit in Rio de Janeiro argued that mineral wealth alone will not create competitive processing and manufacturing supply chains.

Brazil critical minerals industry has substantial geological potential, but projects face gaps in logistics, technology, processing capacity and financing. Predictable legal and regulatory frameworks will therefore be essential to attract investment with mine-development timelines measured in decades.

Brazil has recently strengthened its national critical minerals framework, with policy focused on domestic processing, transformation and higher-value production rather than exports of raw materials alone.

The industrial opportunity extends beyond individual minerals. Companies can improve project economics by recovering multiple metals and valuable by-products from existing mining and processing streams.

Renewable Power Could Give Brazil a Processing Advantage

Brazil does not need to replicate China’s critical minerals model to become competitive. Its advantage could come from combining mineral resources with abundant renewable electricity and water resources to build a lower-carbon processing base.

This matters because refining and mineral processing are often energy-intensive. Access to competitive renewable power can reduce operating costs and lower the embedded carbon of finished materials.

That advantage could become increasingly valuable as automotive, battery, aerospace and industrial customers demand more traceable and lower-carbon feedstock.

Brazil also needs to capture more value between the mine and final customer. Beneficiation, refining, recycling and advanced materials production create significantly more industrial value than exporting ore or concentrate alone.

Government support can help close the financing gap during this transition. Critical mineral projects typically require large upfront capital commitments and long development periods before generating cash.

The challenge is therefore not simply identifying deposits. Brazil needs infrastructure, technology transfer, skilled labour and stable rules that encourage companies to build processing capacity domestically.

Copper Investment Shows Scale of Industrial Opportunity

Copper illustrates both Brazil’s opportunity and the broader global supply challenge. Electrification, grids, renewable energy, energy storage and artificial intelligence infrastructure are increasing the strategic importance of the metal.

Major new discoveries remain difficult, while existing mines are often facing declining grades and higher development costs. This strengthens the value of large established mineral districts that can support expansions and new processing capacity.

Vale Base Metals is positioning Carajas as one of its main copper growth platforms. The company has outlined multi-billion-dollar copper investment in the region, including $3.5bn of planned spending between 2026 and 2030 alone.

Vale is also pursuing more automated mining technologies and hybrid extraction systems, including electric equipment. These investments could reduce operating emissions while improving productivity.

Copper recovery remains challenging because ore contains relatively small amounts of payable metal compared with total material moved. That makes efficiency, energy costs and by-product recovery increasingly important to project economics.

Brazil’s wider critical minerals strategy will face the same test. Resource scale provides the opportunity, but competitiveness will depend on whether the country can convert geology into processed materials and reliable industrial supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil has the resources and renewable power to become more than a mineral exporter, but geology alone will not build a critical materials industry. The decisive step is using policy and capital to pull processing, technology and downstream manufacturing into the country.

US Rare Earths Spending Spree Builds Mine-to-Magnet Power Outside China

Energy Fuels

US rare earths spending spree has rapidly reshaped the non-China industry as American companies acquire mining, refining, metal-making and permanent magnet assets around the world. Large government loans, grants and offtake guarantees have given US-backed groups the financial capacity to consolidate strategic assets across the full value chain.

US rare earths spending spree accelerated with Energy Fuels’ planned $1.9bn acquisition of German permanent magnet maker Vacuumschmelze. The deal follows its $299mn purchase of Australian Strategic Materials, which owns one of the few commercial rare earth metal and alloy plants outside China.

US rare earths spending spree is therefore moving beyond domestic production. Washington-backed capital is allowing US companies to build control or commercial influence over rare earth assets in Europe, South America, Australia, Greenland and Asia.

The result is an emerging US-centred supply network covering mines, separated oxides, metals, alloys and finished NdFeB magnets. That structure could become more important than ownership of any single mineral deposit.

Government Capital Accelerates Global Rare Earth Consolidation

US industrial policy has shifted decisively toward financing complete rare earth supply chains rather than isolated mining projects.

Energy Fuels received a conditional $725mn loan commitment for rare earth processing before announcing the VAC acquisition. Buying the German magnet producer gives Energy Fuels downstream manufacturing capability to complement its growing separation and metal-making assets.

The company had already acquired Australian Strategic Materials in January. ASM’s Korean Metals Plant adds commercial rare earth metal and alloy production, a critical midstream step between separated oxides and permanent magnets.

Other US companies are following the same integration strategy.

USA Rare Earth acquired Brazilian producer Serra Verde for $2.8bn in April. Serra Verde is targeting 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxide production by 2027, giving USAR direct exposure to one of the more advanced rare earth mining operations outside China.

USAR had previously bought UK-based Less Common Metals for $125mn, adding metal and alloy production capability. That combination links upstream Brazilian resources with downstream metallisation expertise.

Critical Minerals also agreed to acquire European Lithium for $835mn to consolidate ownership around Greenland’s Tanbreez rare earth project.

The pattern is consistent. US-backed companies are using access to capital to purchase scarce assets that would otherwise require years to build and qualify independently.

Government support has made this possible. MP Materials received a multi-billion-dollar package including a price floor, guaranteed offtake and direct government investment. Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies received conditional financing support, while USA Rare Earth secured a major federal funding package for its mine-to-magnet development.

Phoenix Tailings also received substantial government-backed financing for rare earth refining.

This capital does more than reduce project risk. It gives US companies the balance-sheet strength to bid for strategic assets elsewhere.

Europe Risks Losing Strategic Control of Its Rare Earth Assets

The US acquisition wave exposes a major weakness in European and other western critical minerals strategies: policy ambition has not always been matched by comparable financing.

Europe still retains important rare earth capabilities. Solvay operates rare earth processing capacity in France, while Neo Performance Materials produces magnets in Estonia.

But ownership is increasingly shifting toward North American groups. VAC will become US-owned if the Energy Fuels transaction closes, while Neo Performance Materials is already controlled from North America.

The same dynamic is emerging in project development. Companies seeking large-scale financing increasingly look to US government programmes rather than domestic European sources.

UK-based Pensana abandoned plans for a UK rare earth refinery and shifted its downstream strategy toward the US, illustrating how capital availability can redirect industrial investment.

This creates an important policy distinction. A rare earth asset can remain physically located in Europe, Brazil, Greenland or Australia while its financing, offtake and strategic direction become increasingly tied to US interests.

That makes Washington’s influence broader than domestic production statistics suggest.

The US does not need every mine or refinery to sit inside its borders. If US-backed companies own assets, control offtake, provide financing or anchor downstream demand, they can still direct material into allied supply chains.

This approach may prove faster than attempting to develop every stage domestically from scratch.

China still dominates global rare earth processing and permanent magnet manufacturing. But outside China, the competitive landscape is increasingly being shaped by access to government-backed capital and the ability to integrate fragmented assets.

The next phase of the rare earth competition will therefore be about ownership and industrial coordination as much as geology. Companies that connect mines, separation, metallisation, alloys and finished magnets will hold the strongest strategic position.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US is building rare earth influence by financing companies that can buy and integrate scarce ex-China assets. Europe and other allies may retain the mines and factories geographically, but without comparable capital they risk losing strategic control of the value chain.

Los Bronces Andina Joint Mine Plan Targets Major Chile Copper Growth

Codelco

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan has cleared another major milestone after Anglo American and Chilean state-owned Codelco completed their agreement to coordinate development of the neighbouring copper operations.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is expected to unlock an additional 2.7mn t of copper over 21 years from 2030. The companies expect the arrangement to lift combined production by around 120,000 t/yr.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is strategically significant because it creates additional copper supply without relying entirely on a new greenfield mine. Instead, Anglo and Codelco will optimise adjacent resources, infrastructure and mine planning across two established operations.

The agreement is also expected to generate at least $5bn in cost savings. Its implementation remains subject to environmental permitting and other customary conditions, with the joint plan expected to begin around 2030.

Adjacent Mines Create Lower-Cost Copper Growth

Los Bronces and Andina sit next to each other in one of Chile’s most important copper districts. Coordinating development allows the companies to optimise resources that would be less efficiently exploited under separate mine plans.

This type of brownfield growth is increasingly valuable for the copper market. New mines face long permitting periods, rising capital costs and infrastructure challenges, while existing districts can often add production faster through operational integration.

The projected additional 2.7mn t of copper is therefore meaningful for long-term global supply. Copper demand continues to rise across power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification.

Anglo’s Los Bronces operation has already shown improving performance. First-quarter output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second processing plant.

The joint plan could build on that recovery by improving access to ore and creating a more efficient long-term mining configuration across the wider district.

Chile Looks to Joint Development to Lift National Output

The agreement supports Chile’s goal of raising national copper production to 6mn t/yr by 2030. Maintaining that position will require new projects, mine-life extensions and better productivity from existing assets.

Anglo and Codelco expect the joint plan to save at least $5bn while maintaining existing environmental and sustainability commitments. That combination of higher output and lower unit development cost is increasingly important as copper projects become more expensive.

The agreement also allows both companies to continue pursuing standalone projects. For Anglo American, that includes its planned merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group, with a portfolio focused on copper, iron ore and zinc.

Environmental approval remains the key outstanding condition. That means the projected additional copper will not reach the market immediately, but the project strengthens Chile’s long-term supply pipeline.

For the global copper industry, the deal highlights an important growth model. Future supply may increasingly come from cooperation between neighbouring mines, shared infrastructure and more efficient use of existing mineral districts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo-Codelco agreement shows that the next wave of copper growth may come from optimising existing mining districts rather than building entirely new mines. In a market facing long permitting cycles and higher capital costs, adjacent-resource integration can unlock meaningful supply at lower risk.

US Offshore Critical Minerals Review Opens Virginia Seabed Mining Path

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

US offshore critical minerals development has moved a step forward after the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management opened a request for information and interest covering a potential mineral lease area off Virginia. The review follows an unsolicited proposal from Odyssey Marine Exploration.

US offshore critical minerals activity could target heavy mineral sands, rare earth elements and phosphates across an approximately 1.8mn acre area off the Delmarva peninsula. The proposed zone covers about 7,160 km².

US offshore critical minerals policy is gaining strategic importance as Washington looks for new domestic sources of materials used in defence, electronics, energy and advanced manufacturing. However, the federal notice does not mean BOEM has approved a lease or commercial development.

Responses to the RFI are due by 23 July. The process will help determine industry interest, resource potential and whether the area should move toward a formal leasing stage.

Virginia Seabed Proposal Targets Rare Earths and Mineral Sands

Odyssey Marine Exploration submitted the original lease request in November. The company wants access to offshore mineral resources that could include rare earth-bearing heavy mineral sands and phosphate deposits.

Heavy mineral sands can contain several strategically important materials, depending on geology and mineral composition. Rare earth-bearing minerals are particularly important because the US is trying to reduce dependence on concentrated foreign processing and supply.

Phosphate resources could also add strategic value because phosphorus supports fertilizer production and food security. A multi-mineral offshore resource could therefore attract interest beyond conventional rare earth markets.

But commercial seabed mining remains technically and environmentally complex. Resource definition, extraction methods, permitting, marine ecosystems, processing routes and project economics will all determine whether offshore deposits can become viable supply.

The scale of the proposed area also means exploration would need to identify where commercially meaningful mineral concentrations actually exist. A large lease footprint alone does not guarantee an economic project.

Federal Policy Pushes Seabed Minerals Into Supply Strategy

The BOEM review follows a wider US policy shift toward seabed critical minerals. President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April 2025 aimed at accelerating seabed mineral exploration and commercial recovery permitting.

That policy reflects growing concern over critical mineral security. Washington is looking at domestic mines, recycling, processing, strategic reserves and now offshore resources as parallel supply options.

For the metals market, the significance is still long term. Even if a lease is eventually offered, exploration, permitting, environmental review and development could take years before material reaches commercial markets.

The strategic value lies in optionality. Offshore resources could eventually supplement terrestrial mining and provide another domestic source of rare earths and other critical minerals.

However, the project must still prove that seabed extraction can meet environmental, regulatory and cost requirements. That will be central to whether offshore mineral development becomes a meaningful part of US critical materials policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Virginia review shows that the US is widening its critical minerals strategy from land-based mining to the seabed. The opportunity is significant, but offshore resources will only matter if geology, environmental approval and processing economics can align.

Mantos Blancos Labor Agreement Reduces Supply Risk as Capstone Eyes Expansion

Capstone Copper

Mantos Blancos labor agreement has reduced near-term operating risk at Capstone Copper’s Chilean mine after both unions representing workers ratified new three-year collective deals. The agreement provides workforce stability as the company studies a meaningful expansion in sulfide milling capacity.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement is strategically important because the site produces copper cathode and remains part of Chile’s broader contribution to global refined copper supply. Labour stability supports production continuity at a time when copper markets remain sensitive to disruptions.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement covers a workforce of 2,928 people, including 1,106 employees and 1,822 contractors. The new deals give Capstone greater operating visibility over the next three years.

The mine has copper cathode production capacity of 60,000 t/yr. First-quarter production reached 10,501t, down 14% from 12,272t a year earlier.

Expansion Could Lift Mantos Blancos Throughput

Capstone is evaluating an increase in sulfide milling capacity at Mantos Blancos from 20,000 t/d to 27,000 t/d. The company filed an environmental permit application for the potential expansion last week.

The proposed increase would strengthen the mine’s ability to process sulfide ore and could improve longer-term copper output if approved and implemented successfully.

This matters because copper supply growth increasingly depends on expansions at existing mines rather than only new greenfield projects. Brownfield projects often have lower execution risk because infrastructure, workforce and operating systems are already in place.

However, the first-quarter production decline shows that current performance still needs attention. Output fell 14% year on year, leaving the mine below the pace implied by its nameplate cathode capacity.

The labour agreement removes one source of uncertainty, allowing management to focus on operational improvement, permitting and expansion planning.

Chile Labor Stability Supports Capstone’s Copper Strategy

Capstone has also secured labour stability at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Earlier this year, the company reached a three-year collective bargaining agreement with a union representing about half of the workforce there.

Together, the agreements reduce labour-related supply risk across Capstone’s Chilean portfolio. That is important because prolonged strikes in Chile can have meaningful effects on mine output and concentrate availability.

Chile remains one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries, so workforce stability at individual mines has wider market relevance.

For Capstone, the next challenge is to convert that stability into production growth. Mantos Blancos needs stronger output, while the proposed milling expansion must move through environmental approval and capital execution.

The combination of labour certainty and expansion potential gives the company a stronger platform. But the market will still watch operating performance closely after the weaker first quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Capstone has removed a key operating risk at Mantos Blancos just as it considers a larger sulfide milling footprint. The bigger question now is whether labour stability can translate into higher throughput and more reliable copper output.

Jubilee Metals Zambia Copper Push Gets Early Funding for Molefe Asset

Jubilee Metals

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper strategy has gained modest early-stage funding after the London-listed company secured a $1.5mn convertible loan for its Molefe copper asset. The loan will support drilling and licence work as Jubilee builds its Zambian copper platform.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper growth now centres on feeding near-surface material from Molefe into the existing Sable refinery. This lowers upfront capital needs compared with a standalone copper development project.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper ambitions remain dependent on additional external funding. The current loan provides short-term support, while the backer is also considering a larger staged investment of $10mn.

The financing comes as Jubilee shifts away from its South African chrome and platinum group metals assets. The company is redirecting capital toward copper, where it sees stronger growth potential.

Molefe Offers Lower-Cost Route Into Copper Processing

Molefe is strategically important because it can supply material to Jubilee’s existing Sable refinery. That gives the project a practical processing route without requiring a full new refining complex.

The near-surface nature of the operation also helps reduce early development costs. Jubilee can focus initial spending on drilling, licensing and stockpile development rather than heavy greenfield infrastructure.

This model fits smaller copper developers trying to scale under tight capital conditions. Instead of building large mines first, companies can use existing processing assets and incremental feedstock growth.

Jubilee plans to build stockpiles at Molefe to support future refining. That will be important for ensuring stable feed to Sable and improving operating continuity.

However, the $1.5mn loan is limited in scale. It supports early work, but larger funding will be needed if Jubilee wants to expand mining and processing capacity meaningfully.

Zambia Becomes Core to Jubilee’s Growth Strategy

Jubilee has increasingly focused on Zambia as it pivots toward copper. The country remains one of Africa’s most important copper jurisdictions and continues to attract investment tied to electrification and energy transition demand.

The company’s copper output has improved as the Roan concentrator stabilised and Molefe expanded its role as feedstock for Sable. This gives Jubilee a clearer operating base than during earlier ramp-up challenges.

The planned sale of South African chrome and PGM assets would sharpen that focus further. It would free capital and management attention for copper growth in Zambia.

The strategy reflects wider market logic. Copper demand remains supported by power grids, renewable energy, data centres, electric vehicles and industrial electrification.

For Jubilee, the challenge is execution. It must convert a low-cost processing model into steady copper output, secure enough feedstock and attract the capital required for expansion.

The potential $10mn staged investment could become more important than the initial loan. It would provide a stronger bridge between early development and larger operating scale.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s Molefe funding is small, but the strategy is practical. In a capital-constrained copper market, assets that can feed existing refineries may advance faster than larger standalone projects.

Vale Labor Deal Reduces Strike Risk at Ontario Copper and Nickel Operations

Vale

Vale labor deal discussions have produced a tentative collective agreement with United Steelworkers locals representing production and maintenance workers at Vale Base Metals operations in Ontario. The agreement could reduce strike risk at a key Canadian copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals production base.

Vale labor deal terms still require union ratification. USW Local 6500 will hold information sessions on 27-28 May, followed by online voting from Thursday morning to Friday evening.

Vale labor deal approval would come just before the current five-year collective agreement expires on 31 May. The timing is important because union members had already voted strongly in favour of a strike mandate earlier this month.

The tentative agreement therefore matters for supply continuity. Vale’s Ontario operations remain an important source of finished nickel and copper for North American industrial and critical minerals supply chains.

Sudbury Operations Remain Strategically Important

Vale’s Sudbury operations include several mines, a mill, smelter and refinery. The complex produces copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals, making it one of the most important integrated base metals operations in Canada.

The site’s role is especially important because nickel and cobalt remain critical to batteries, superalloys, stainless steel, defence applications and advanced manufacturing. Copper supports electrification, grids, data centres and industrial equipment.

Vale produced 59,400t of finished nickel at Sudbury in 2025. That accounted for about 34% of the company’s total finished nickel output that year.

Sudbury also produced 63,800t of finished copper in 2025, equal to about 17% of Vale’s total finished copper production. Any labour disruption would therefore carry company-level and regional supply-chain significance.

The Port Colborne refinery adds another downstream dimension. It produces electro-cobalt, processes precious metals and distributes finished nickel products.

Ratification Will Decide Supply Continuity

The tentative agreement is not yet final. Union members must approve the deal before it becomes the new labour contract.

That vote will be closely watched because Local 6500 members voted 97.64% in support of a strike mandate earlier this month. Such a strong mandate gave the union significant leverage during negotiations.

A ratified agreement would provide operational stability for Vale Base Metals in Ontario. It would also reduce uncertainty for customers that depend on Canadian nickel, copper, cobalt and refined products.

For North American critical minerals policy, labour stability matters. Governments and manufacturers are trying to build secure supply chains, but mine and refinery output still depends on workforce agreements, site reliability and downstream processing capacity.

The broader market impact depends on the vote. If workers approve the deal, Vale can avoid immediate disruption at a strategically important metals complex. If not, strike risk could quickly return as the current agreement expires.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Vale agreement shows that critical minerals security is not only about geology, capital or policy. Labour stability at integrated mining, smelting and refining assets is just as important to reliable nickel, copper and cobalt supply.

Record Temperatures 2026-30 Forecast Raises Climate Risk for Industry

WMO

Record temperatures 2026-30 are likely to keep global heat at or near historic highs, according to a report produced by the UK’s Met Office for the World Meteorological Organization. The forecast points to average annual global near-surface temperatures of 1.3°C-1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

Record temperatures 2026-30 would extend a period of exceptional heat after 2023-25 became the three hottest years on record. The report also gives an 86% chance that at least one year in 2026-30 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Record temperatures 2026-30 carry direct implications for energy, mining, agriculture, logistics and industrial manufacturing. Higher heat levels can increase power demand, strain grids, disrupt water availability and raise operating risk for resource industries.

The outlook also reinforces the gap between climate targets and current warming trends. The Paris Agreement seeks to keep temperature rises well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Temporary Threshold Breaches Increase Policy Pressure

The report found a 91% chance that global average near-surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also found a 75% likelihood that the five-year mean will breach the same threshold.

That does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal has formally failed. The agreement’s thresholds refer to sustained warming over an extended period, typically measured over about 20 years.

However, temporary breaches still matter. They increase pressure on governments to accelerate emissions cuts, expand renewable power, improve energy efficiency and strengthen climate adaptation policies.

For metals and mining, this creates a two-sided market effect. Stronger climate action supports demand for copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, rare earths and electrical steel used in grids, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy.

At the same time, higher temperatures increase operational risk. Mines, smelters, refineries and transport corridors can face more heat stress, water constraints, power reliability problems and weather-related disruption.

El Nino Risk Adds Volatility to Industrial Planning

The past 11 years have been the warmest on record, mainly because of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The report said anomalous warmth was widespread in 2021-25, even though La Nina conditions prevailed in four of those five years.

The forecast now points to a tendency toward El Nino conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028. El Nino typically raises global temperatures, while La Nina usually has a cooling effect.

This matters because El Nino can intensify weather volatility. Heat, drought, floods and shifting rainfall patterns can affect hydropower, crop output, transport, mine operations and energy markets.

Industrial companies will need to treat climate risk as an operating variable, not only a sustainability issue. Power security, water management, site resilience and supply-chain redundancy will become more important in capital planning.

The report’s use of predictions from 13 institutes adds weight to the outlook. The central message is that high-temperature years are becoming more frequent as underlying global warming approaches key climate thresholds.

For resource markets, that means climate policy and physical climate risk will increasingly shape demand, costs and investment decisions at the same time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The WMO outlook shows that climate risk is moving from long-term scenario planning into near-term industrial reality. Metals demand will benefit from decarbonisation, but producers must also prepare for hotter, more volatile operating conditions.

LKAB Critical Minerals Industrial Park Advances Swedish Rare Earth and Phosphorus Supply

LKAB

LKAB critical minerals industrial park plans have taken a major step forward after the Swedish mining group received a key environmental permit for its planned facility in Lulea. The project will produce phosphorus and rare earths from residual streams generated by iron ore mining.

LKAB critical minerals industrial park development is strategically important because it turns mining waste into usable industrial feedstock. The plant will process apatite concentrate from LKAB’s existing iron ore operations in Gallivare.

LKAB critical minerals industrial park output will include rare earths, phosphorus for fertilizer production and gypsum for the construction industry. That gives the project relevance across clean technology, agriculture and building materials.

The Land and Environmental Court granted the permit to construct the Lulea industrial park, moving LKAB closer to a new value chain based on by-product recovery from iron ore production.

Iron Ore Residues Become Critical Mineral Feedstock

LKAB will build an apatite processing plant at its iron ore mine to produce apatite concentrate. That concentrate will then be transported to Lulea for further processing.

This structure is important because it uses an existing mining base rather than depending only on a new standalone rare earth mine. It could help shorten the route from waste stream to commercial critical mineral product.

Rare earths are essential for permanent magnets, electric motors, wind power, defence systems and advanced industrial technologies. Phosphorus is also strategically important because it supports fertilizer production and food security.

Recovering these materials from residual iron ore streams improves resource efficiency. It also reduces the amount of potentially valuable material left unused in mining waste.

LKAB started construction of a demonstration plant in January. The plant is expected to begin operations later in 2026 and will test the technology needed to extract phosphorus and rare earths from iron ore production streams.

EU Strategic Status Strengthens Project Importance

Several LKAB investments have been named strategic projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. These include the industrial park, a mine in Malmberget and the Per Geijer iron ore deposit in Kiruna.

The Per Geijer project contains a major rare earth deposit, giving LKAB a broader role in Europe’s critical minerals strategy. The company is increasingly positioned at the intersection of iron ore, rare earths, phosphorus and industrial policy.

For Europe, the project matters because rare earth supply remains highly concentrated outside the region. Domestic processing from Swedish mining streams could support supply diversification and reduce exposure to external bottlenecks.

The phosphorus element also strengthens the case for the project. Fertilizer supply has become more strategically important as governments reassess food security, energy costs and import dependence.

The Lulea permit does not eliminate execution risk. LKAB still needs to prove processing performance, scale-up economics and reliable product quality from residual streams.

However, the permit moves the project from concept toward implementation. It also shows how Europe can use existing mining operations to recover critical materials that were previously treated as by-products or waste.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LKAB’s project shows that Europe’s critical minerals opportunity is not only in new mines. Some of the fastest supply gains may come from reprocessing industrial waste streams already sitting inside established mining systems.

Trinity Tungsten Drilling Campaign Targets Larger Rwanda Supply Base

Trinity, Rwanda

Trinity tungsten drilling has begun at the Nyakabingo mine in Rwanda as the company works to expand one of Africa’s largest tungsten deposits. The campaign is designed to confirm deeper mineralised vein extensions and support long-term mine sustainability.

Trinity tungsten drilling is strategically important because tungsten supply is increasingly tied to defence, aerospace, cutting tools, electronics and energy applications. Rwanda’s role could grow if Nyakabingo moves from semi-industrial production toward full-scale operations.

Trinity tungsten drilling will target depths of about 850m from the surface. The company may consider additional exploration across the licensed area depending on drilling results.

Nyakabingo currently produces 100-110 t/month of wolframite grading 66-70% tungsten. The deposit hosts an estimated 115,502t of recoverable tungsten, with further resource potential at depth.

Nyakabingo Expansion Strengthens African Tungsten Supply

Nyakabingo has been active since the 1930s, making it a long-established tungsten operation with renewed strategic relevance. The current drilling campaign aims to extend the mine’s resource base and support future output growth.

This matters because tungsten supply chains remain narrow and strategically sensitive. Buyers in defence and advanced manufacturing need stable, traceable and qualified sources of tungsten-bearing material.

Trinity is expanding resources while scaling mining and processing capacity. That combination is important because additional reserves only create supply value if mining and processing systems can handle higher output.

The company is also positioning itself for downstream value addition. This reflects a wider shift in critical minerals, where producing countries and miners increasingly want to capture more value beyond raw concentrate.

Rwanda could benefit from that trend. Tin, tungsten and tantalum are all strategically important minerals, and Trinity’s operations give the country a stronger role in supply chains linked to electronics, industrial tools and defence materials.

Wolframite Processing Upgrade Reduces Scale-Up Risk

Trinity recently commissioned a 5 t/hr pilot plant to test an improved wolframite processing flowsheet. The pilot plant is intended to bridge the gap toward a planned 60 t/hr facility under study.

This step is commercially important. Processing performance will determine recovery, concentrate quality, operating costs and the ability to scale output reliably.

The company also installed a closed-loop water treatment system. That supports environmental management and could help improve operating resilience as mining and processing expand.

Trinity has an offtake agreement with US-based Global Tungsten & Powders, while Traxys handles deliveries. This gives the company an established route into international tungsten markets.

The offtake structure also links Rwanda’s tungsten output to western supply-chain security. Global Tungsten & Powders is a key downstream player, and its relationship with Trinity gives Nyakabingo additional strategic relevance.

Trinity’s broader portfolio includes tin and tantalum production from the Rutongo and Musha mines. Rutongo produces 40-70 t/month of tin, while Musha produces 30-40 t/month.

The expansion at Nyakabingo therefore fits a larger critical minerals platform. Trinity is not only developing tungsten. It is building a tin, tungsten and tantalum supply base with growing relevance to electronics, defence and industrial manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trinity’s drilling campaign shows that African tungsten supply could become more important as western buyers seek diversified sources. The real test will be whether Nyakabingo can convert deeper resources and pilot processing into reliable full-scale output.

IMFA Ferro-Chrome Capacity Expansion to Make It India’s Largest Producer

Ferro-Chrome

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity is set to nearly double by the end of 2026 as Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys combines a Tata Steel asset acquisition with new furnace capacity at Kalinganagar in Odisha. The expansion will lift installed capacity beyond 500,000 t/yr, positioning IMFA as India’s largest ferro-chrome producer.

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity growth comes at a strategic moment for stainless steel raw materials. Ferro-chrome is a critical alloying input for stainless steel, and India’s rising stainless output requires more secure domestic alloy supply.

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity expansion also strengthens the company’s global position. Once complete, IMFA expects to rank among the foremost ferro-chrome producers worldwide.

The company is expanding while also restructuring its power mix. This matters because electricity is the dominant cost in ferro-chrome smelting and can decide competitiveness during weak pricing cycles.

Kalinganagar Expansion Strengthens India’s Ferro-Chrome Base

IMFA’s greenfield Kalinganagar project, known as KNR 1, will increase installed capacity to 384,000 t/yr by September from 284,000 t/yr at present. Pre-commissioning of the first furnace is scheduled for June.

The company also brought all four furnaces at its 100,000 t/yr Kalinganagar facility, known as KNR 2, on stream in March 2026. Together with the Tata Steel acquisition, these additions will significantly expand India’s domestic ferro-chrome platform.

This is industrially important because ferro-chrome supply links directly to stainless steel competitiveness. Domestic alloy availability can reduce exposure to imported material, freight costs and external supply shocks.

IMFA produced 267,300t of ferro-chrome in the April 2025-March 2026 financial year, up 2.7% from a year earlier. Sales rose by 3.9% to around 270,125t.

Quarterly output reached 68,506t in January-March, the strongest level in the period. That operating momentum gives IMFA a stronger base before the larger capacity increase takes full effect.

Captive Ore and Renewable Power Improve Cost Position

IMFA’s captive chrome ore position is central to its expansion strategy. Chrome ore output from its mines exceeded 800,000t for the first time, reaching 810,612t in 2025-26, up 15.5% from a year earlier.

Underground mining accounted for 536,000t of output. This captive supply gives IMFA better raw material control as it scales ferro-chrome production.

Energy strategy is the other major factor. IMFA plans to start 70MWp of hybrid renewable energy supply in July-September and has a binding deal for another 65MWp by June 2027.

Renewable power is expected to account for about 40% of the company’s power mix by March 2027. That shift could improve cost stability and reduce exposure to volatile power markets.

The move also supports lower-carbon ferro-alloy production. Stainless steel customers are increasingly watching the emissions profile of upstream alloy inputs, especially as export markets apply stricter carbon and sustainability rules.

IMFA also said it is exploring opportunities in critical minerals. That signals a broader growth strategy beyond ferro-chrome, although the core business remains the main focus.

For India, the expansion strengthens domestic alloy security. For IMFA, the challenge will be to ramp capacity while protecting margins, securing power and maintaining chrome ore supply discipline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IMFA’s expansion shows that ferro-alloys are becoming part of India’s industrial security agenda, not just a stainless steel input. The real advantage will come from combining scale, captive chrome ore and lower-cost renewable power before global ferro-chrome competition tightens again.

India-US Critical Minerals Agreement Targets Mining, Processing and Recycling Security

India-US Critical Minerals

India-US critical minerals agreement marks a new step in efforts to secure mining, processing and recycling routes for strategic minerals and rare earth elements. The bilateral framework covers materials needed for electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, solar panels, defence systems and artificial intelligence hardware.

India-US critical minerals agreement was signed on the sidelines of the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi. Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar and US secretary of state Marco Rubio attended the signing.

India-US critical minerals agreement reflects growing concern over concentrated supply chains. China dominates refining and processing for lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths, leaving India and the US exposed to supply disruption, export controls and price leverage.

The pact covers the full value chain, from extraction and processing to recycling, financing and long-term material management. That broader scope is important because raw mineral access alone does not create industrial supply security.

Processing Capacity Becomes the Strategic Priority

The agreement directly targets one of the biggest weaknesses in non-China critical mineral supply chains: processing. Mining resources matter, but value is captured when materials are refined, separated and qualified for industrial use.

China accounts for around 60-70% of global refining and processing capacity for key minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. It also controls about 90% of rare earth refining.

That dominance gives China strong influence over battery materials, magnet inputs, semiconductor minerals and advanced manufacturing supply chains. It also makes diversification difficult because new projects must compete with established Chinese scale and cost advantages.

India has significant long-term rare earth potential. Its monazite reserves contain an estimated 7.23mn t of rare earth oxides, but commercial output remains limited.

The new framework could help India convert resource potential into usable supply. That will require investment in mining, separation, refining, metallurgy, environmental management and customer qualification.

For the US, India offers a strategic partner with mineral resources, industrial ambition and a large domestic market. For India, the US can provide financing, technology partnerships, customer demand and policy support.

Rare Earth Corridors Fit India’s Industrial Strategy

India’s latest budget introduced a policy framework to develop rare earth corridors across Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. These regions could become the foundation for a more integrated rare earth supply chain.

The corridor model matters because rare earth development requires clustering. Mining, mineral sands processing, separation, waste management, logistics and downstream manufacturing need to be connected.

India is also widening its international partnerships. It signed a critical minerals cooperation agreement with Brazil in February 2026, showing that New Delhi wants a diversified supply network across multiple geographies.

The India-US framework adds a stronger strategic layer. It links India’s domestic minerals policy with Washington’s push to reduce dependence on China in defence, batteries, semiconductors and AI-related hardware.

Recycling is also part of the agreement. That inclusion is important because recovered battery metals, rare earth magnets and industrial scrap can reduce long-term import dependence.

However, execution will decide the real impact. India must move faster on permitting, processing technology, financing and downstream customer development if it wants to become a serious critical minerals hub.

The agreement gives both countries a framework. The next challenge is turning policy language into operating mines, refineries, recycling plants and qualified material flows.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The India-US deal shows that critical minerals security is now a full-chain industrial policy issue. The countries that win will not only secure ore; they will control processing, recycling, financing and qualified supply for strategic end markets.

Atalaya Copper Output Falls as Rain and Lower Grades Hit Riotinto

Atalaya

Atalaya copper output fell sharply in the first quarter after heavy rainfall restricted access to higher-grade ore at the company’s Riotinto operation in southern Spain. The London-listed copper producer produced 9,939t of copper, down 30% from a year earlier.

Atalaya copper output started the year below the run rate needed to meet the company’s 2026 production target of 50,000-54,000t. However, Atalaya kept its full-year guidance unchanged, signalling confidence that grades and mining access will improve after the disrupted quarter.

Atalaya copper output had followed a stronger 2025, when the company produced 51,139t and reached the top end of its guidance range. The weaker first quarter therefore highlights the sensitivity of the operation to weather, grade access and pit sequencing.

Revenue and earnings declined as lower sales volumes offset support from stronger copper prices. Cash costs rose to $2.52/lb from $2.25/lb a year earlier because lower output and higher stripping activity pushed unit costs higher.

Rain and Grades Expose Riotinto Operating Sensitivity

Lower grades were the main reason behind the production decline. Flooding early in the quarter restricted access to higher-grade ore in the Cerro Colorado pit, forcing Atalaya to rely more heavily on stockpiles.

Head grades fell to 0.30% from 0.42% a year earlier. That grade drop had a direct effect on copper output because the plant needed to process more material to recover each tonne of copper.

The result shows how mature open-pit copper operations can become vulnerable to short-term mining conditions. Rainfall, pit access, ore sequencing and stockpile quality can quickly affect production and cost performance.

Strong copper prices helped cushion the impact. Atalaya realised $5.87/lb, up from $4.26/lb a year earlier, which supported margins despite weaker output.

But price strength cannot fully offset grade weakness. When production falls and stripping rises, unit costs increase, limiting the benefit of higher copper prices.

Blending Strategy Becomes Central to 2026 Guidance

Atalaya is now leaning more heavily on ore blending across the wider Riotinto district. This strategy is becoming more important as the main Cerro Colorado pit matures.

San Dionisio is one part of that plan, with waste stripping already under way. The permitted Masa Valverde deposit also gives Atalaya another source of future ore flexibility.

Blending ore from multiple deposits can help stabilise grades, extend mine life and reduce reliance on a single pit. It can also improve production planning if mining access at one area becomes constrained.

Touro in northwest Spain remains less advanced and is still moving through permitting. That means Atalaya’s 2026 guidance depends mainly on recovery at Rio tinto rather than immediate support from new production elsewhere.

The first-quarter result therefore creates a clear execution challenge. Atalaya must restore access to better-grade ore, manage stripping and convert its district-scale resource base into steadier mine feed.

For the copper market, the issue is modest in volume but important in theme. Global copper supply remains highly exposed to grade decline, weather disruption and the difficulty of adding reliable new mine output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Atalaya’s weak quarter shows that copper supply risk is not limited to mega-project delays or geopolitics. Mature mines also face grade and sequencing pressure, and producers with flexible ore sources will be better positioned as copper demand rises.

European Ferro-Molybdenum Prices Hit Three-Year High on Concentrate Squeeze

Ferro-Molybdenum

European ferro-molybdenum prices have climbed to a three-year high as tight molybdenum concentrate supply, stronger Chinese steel demand and logistical constraints push the market higher. The rally has lifted prices sharply since the start of the year.

European ferro-molybdenum prices were last assessed at $70.90-71.50/kg in-warehouse Rotterdam on 19 May, up by about 25% from the start of the year. Molybdenum oxide prices also rose to $30.50-30.80/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up by 28% over the same period.

European ferro-molybdenum prices are being driven mainly by raw material tightness rather than a broad recovery in European steel demand. Molybdenum concentrate availability has tightened structurally, limiting oxide and ferro-molybdenum production flexibility.

The key problem is that molybdenum is mostly produced as a by-product of copper mining. That means supply cannot quickly respond to higher prices, leaving the market exposed when concentrate availability tightens or downstream demand rises.

Concentrate Tightness Drives the Molybdenum Chain Higher

Molybdenum concentrate is the starting point for the supply chain. It is converted into molybdenum oxide, which then feeds ferro-molybdenum production for alloy steel and stainless steel applications.

Concentrate prices in China have risen by about 29% since January, peaking at 5,235 yuan/mtu on 13 May. That cost increase has moved through the value chain and supported higher oxide and ferro-molybdenum prices.

Chinese steel demand has intensified the squeeze. Mills purchased around 30,000t of ferro-molybdenum in March-April, up 10% from a year earlier.

This buying absorbed much of China’s available spot concentrate and oxide supply. As a result, less material has been available for export to other consuming regions.

Market participants initially expected demand to slow after pre-holiday buying ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday. Instead, sustained steel mill demand kept buyers active and tightened availability further.

The Centerra Gold Langeloth outage in the US also supported the rally. An explosion near the facility’s acid unit on 29 January led to a suspension of operations, removing an important source of molybdenum oxide and ferro-molybdenum from the prompt market.

The facility’s direct global supply share is limited. However, its outage tightened nearby availability and strengthened bullish sentiment, allowing traders and producers to raise offers more aggressively.

Supply Constraints Outweigh European Demand Recovery

The current rally is largely supply-led. European steel demand has not recovered strongly enough to explain the scale of the price increase on its own.

Logistical constraints have made the situation worse. Financing, freight and inventory bottlenecks have reduced spot availability among trading firms.

Some sellers have also withheld material in expectation of further price gains. At the same time, buyers have resisted higher offers, reducing spot liquidity and creating sharper price movements.

Truckload enquiries have remained limited in recent weeks. This suggests that physical tightness and cautious seller behaviour are driving prices more than a surge in end-user consumption.

For alloy producers and steelmakers, the rally raises cost pressure. Ferro-molybdenum is used to improve strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance in steels used across energy, chemicals, engineering, defence and industrial equipment.

The market’s vulnerability reflects molybdenum’s by-product nature. Even if prices rise sharply, copper mines cannot quickly increase molybdenum output just to meet alloy demand.

That makes the molybdenum chain highly sensitive to disruptions. Concentrate shortages, converter outages, Chinese buying and trading bottlenecks can all create price moves that exceed the underlying change in steel consumption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The molybdenum rally shows how by-product metals can move violently when small supply disruptions meet concentrated demand. European buyers are not facing a simple steel-demand story; they are facing a raw material chain where concentrate availability now controls ferro-alloy pricing.

Finniss Lithium Operation Restart Signals Australian Spodumene Supply Return

Core Lithium

Finniss Lithium Operation is returning to production after Core Lithium restarted mining at the Grants open pit in Australia’s Northern Territory. The move marks the reopening of an asset that had been in care and maintenance since 2024 because of weak lithium prices.

Finniss Lithium Operation will process its first ore in the September quarter, with the first spodumene concentrate shipment expected in the December quarter. Additional shipments are planned for 2027.

Finniss Lithium Operation restart reflects the sharp recovery in spodumene prices after supply constraints emerged in late 2025. Core Lithium approved the restart in March as stronger pricing improved the economics of bringing idled capacity back online.

The Grants pit will provide access to around 800,000t of ore and deliver about 100,000t of spodumene concentrate on a 5% lithium oxide basis. Mining has started in line with Core Lithium’s final investment decision schedule and cost expectations.

Grants Pit Brings Near-Term Spodumene Back to Market

The Grants open pit gives Core Lithium a near-term route back into the seaborne spodumene market. First ore processing in the September quarter and first shipment in the December quarter create a clear restart timeline.

This matters because Australian lithium producers are beginning to respond to stronger market conditions. Several operations that were halted during the downturn are now restarting as prices recover.

Spodumene prices have rebounded sharply from the lows reached in December 2025. The recovery has made previously idled hard-rock assets more attractive, especially those with existing infrastructure and established development plans.

For buyers, the return of Finniss adds incremental Australian supply at a time when lithium converters are reassessing feedstock security. But the restart also adds new supply into a market still vulnerable to oversupply if too many projects return at once.

Core Lithium’s timing is therefore important. The company is moving before the next wave of supply fully arrives, but it must still prove stable mining, processing and shipment performance after a long shutdown.

BP33 Sets Up Longer-Term Finniss Expansion

Core Lithium is also advancing infrastructure work at the BP33 underground mine. The company awarded a A$274mn underground mining services contract to Develop Global for a three-to-five-year period.

BP33 is expected to be developed by mid-2027. It should help lift ore production at Finniss to 1.2mn t/yr by mid-2028.

Core Lithium’s final investment decision summary outlines a longer-term plan to produce spodumene concentrate over a 20-year mine life. Expected unit costs are around A$762/t, giving the operation leverage to higher spodumene pricing if execution stays on track.

The restart and BP33 development show how lithium producers are rebuilding confidence after the 2024-25 market downturn. The key difference now is that investors and customers will focus more closely on cost discipline, grade, logistics and customer commitments.

For the broader battery supply chain, Finniss adds another signal that Australian spodumene remains central to global lithium raw material supply. The market recovery is bringing supply back, but long-term balance will depend on whether battery demand can absorb returning and new production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Core Lithium’s restart shows that the lithium cycle has turned enough to bring idled Australian mines back into action. The risk is that recovering prices invite too much supply too quickly, making cost discipline and offtake quality more important than restart headlines.

Terrafame Scandium Recovery Study Could Create Europe’s First Domestic Supply

Terrafame

Terrafame scandium recovery plans could give Europe its only domestic scandium production source if a new project at the company’s Sotkamo operations in eastern Finland advances. The Finnish metals producer has launched a pre-feasibility study to assess scandium recovery from existing nickel and zinc production streams.

Terrafame scandium recovery would use the company’s current hydrometallurgical circuits, rather than requiring a standalone scandium mine. That gives the project a potentially lower-risk route because Terrafame already processes polymetallic ore and recovers multiple valuable metals.

Terrafame scandium recovery is strategically important because scandium supply remains extremely limited and heavily concentrated in China. Beijing controls around 85% of global supply and tightened export controls on the metal last year.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the project moves forward, Terrafame could target production in 2029.

Existing Circuits Could Lower Development Risk

Terrafame already produces battery-grade nickel, cobalt and copper. It also recovers uranium as a by-product from the same polymetallic ore system.

Adding scandium recovery to existing process streams could improve the value of Terrafame’s hydrometallurgical platform. It would also show how critical minerals can be extracted from established operations without developing entirely new mines.

This matters because scandium is usually produced in very small volumes as a by-product. Reliable recovery depends on chemistry, process control, impurity management and market qualification.

If successful, Terrafame could become a strategic supplier to European customers seeking non-China scandium. That would support supply-chain resilience for aerospace, aluminium alloys, solid oxide fuel cells and advanced materials.

The project also fits Europe’s wider critical raw materials agenda. The EU needs more domestic and allied sources of small-volume metals that support high-value industrial applications.

China Dominance Keeps Scandium Strategically Sensitive

Global scandium production remains limited at around 40-45 t/yr, while consumption reached about 60t in 2025. That small market size makes the supply chain highly sensitive to export controls and project delays.

China’s dominant position has increased interest in alternative sources. Export restrictions have made scandium more relevant to buyers that need secure material for advanced alloy and energy applications.

Several projects globally could increase supply over the next decade, including developments by NioCorp, Rio Tinto and Sunrise. Combined, these projects could lift global supply to 150-250 t/yr if they reach production.

That potential increase has raised some oversupply concerns. However, scandium demand may grow once buyers have more confidence in long-term availability.

This is a common problem for small critical materials markets. Customers hesitate to design around a material if supply is scarce, but producers struggle to invest before demand is proven.

Terrafame’s project could help break part of that cycle in Europe. A Finnish scandium source would not transform the market alone, but it could give manufacturers a more secure regional option.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Terrafame’s scandium study shows how Europe can extract more critical value from existing polymetallic operations. The opportunity is not only new mining, but smarter recovery of strategic by-products already moving through industrial circuits.

Bald Hill Lithium Mine Restart Signals Stronger Spodumene Recovery

Bald Hill Lithium

Bald Hill lithium mine operations are restarting after Mineral Resources responded to a sustained recovery in lithium prices. The Western Australian mine had been on care and maintenance since November 2024.

Bald Hill lithium mine ramp-up will begin in late May, with crushing and mining operations scheduled to start in June. First spodumene concentrate production is expected in July.

Bald Hill lithium mine shipments are planned from the Port of Esperance in the third quarter of 2026. Full capacity is expected in the fourth quarter.

The restart shows that stronger spodumene prices are beginning to bring suspended Australian lithium capacity back into the market. It also confirms that producers are becoming more confident after the severe lithium downturn that forced project closures and delays.

Spodumene Prices Bring Idled Capacity Back

Bald Hill has production capacity of about 165,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 5.1% spodumene concentrate. On a normalized 6% spodumene concentrate basis, capacity is around 140,000 dmt/yr.

The restart is modest compared with Australia’s largest lithium operations, but it matters for market sentiment. Idled mines returning to production show that the price recovery is no longer only a paper-market signal.

Mineral Resources also operates the Wodgina and Marion lithium mines. The company has lifted production guidance for both assets for the fiscal year ending June 2026.

Wodgina guidance increased to 280,000 dmt of SC6, while Marion guidance rose to 220,000 dmt of SC6. Together with Bald Hill, these assets strengthen MinRes’ position as a major Australian spodumene producer.

The restart also adds more supply to the seaborne lithium concentrate market. That could help converters secure feedstock, but it also raises the risk that returning capacity eventually caps price upside if demand growth slows.

Posco Stake Reinforces Battery Supply Chain Link

South Korean steelmaker Posco acquired a 30% stake in MinRes in November 2025 for $765mn. That investment gives the restart a stronger downstream battery supply-chain connection.

Posco has been expanding across battery materials, and access to Australian spodumene can support long-term lithium chemical production. For MinRes, the relationship provides strategic capital and potential customer alignment.

Western Australia remains one of the world’s most important lithium supply regions. Its hard-rock mines feed converters in China, South Korea and other battery manufacturing hubs.

The Bald Hill restart therefore fits a wider supply-chain pattern. Lithium producers are trying to rebuild volumes as prices recover, while downstream players seek more secure feedstock before battery demand accelerates again.

The key question is whether the recovery remains strong enough to absorb returning supply. If prices hold, more idled lithium capacity could follow Bald Hill back into production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bald Hill’s restart shows that lithium’s recovery is becoming operational, not just financial. The market now needs to watch whether returning Australian supply supports battery security or creates the next round of oversupply pressure.

Sherritt Moa JV Dissolution Marks Break in Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Supply Chain

Sherritt

Sherritt Moa JV dissolution marks a major break in one of the more unusual cross-border nickel-cobalt supply chains linking Cuba and Canada. Sherritt International plans to deliver a dissolution notice to its joint venture partner, the General Nickel Company of Cuba, after expanded US sanctions made continued participation commercially and legally risky.

Sherritt Moa JV dissolution will require the Canadian company to surrender its interests in the Cuban joint venture corporations. The company said immediate dissolution is the only way to preserve its ability to do business.

Sherritt Moa JV dissolution is strategically important because the Moa structure linked Cuban mining and intermediate processing with Canadian refining. Ore was mined and processed into mixed sulfide precipitate at Moa, then shipped to the Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Alberta.

Sherritt expects GNC to owe an equalization payment because it believes the Moa mine is more valuable than the Canadian refinery. That valuation issue could become a key point in the separation process.

US Sanctions Force Structural Exit From Moa

The US directly sanctioned the Moa joint venture on 7 May. The designation followed a 1 May executive order allowing Washington to sanction entities or people supporting the Cuban government across metals, mining, energy, financial services, security and other sectors.

Sherritt had already suspended direct participation in Moa-related activities earlier this month after assessing the implications of the executive order. The direct sanctions accelerated the need for a structural exit.

The company said the dissolution is necessary so it can be considered the sole owner of Canada Refinery Corporation, which owns the Fort Saskatchewan nickel-cobalt refinery. That step is central to preserving the Canadian refining business outside the sanctioned Cuban structure.

The Moa joint venture had been a 50/50 partnership between Sherritt and GNC. Its value came from combining Cuban ore and MSP production with Canadian refining expertise.

The latest move shows how sanctions can fracture supply chains even when downstream refining sits in an allied jurisdiction. Feedstock origin, ownership structure and sanctioned counterparties now matter as much as the location of final refining.

Canadian Refinery Faces Feedstock Repositioning Challenge

The Fort Saskatchewan refinery remains strategically valuable because it produces finished nickel and cobalt. These metals are used in batteries, superalloys, stainless steel, industrial chemicals and advanced manufacturing.

However, the refinery’s historic feedstock route depended on Moa mixed sulfide precipitate. Losing the Cuban joint venture means Sherritt must protect the refinery’s operating future through ownership clarity, alternative feed planning or new commercial structures.

The company had already faced operating pressure before the sanctions escalated. Sherritt temporarily suspended mining operations at Moa in February because of fuel supply problems in Cuba.

That earlier disruption showed the physical fragility of the Moa supply chain. The sanctions now add a legal and geopolitical break to an already strained operating model.

For nickel and cobalt buyers, the key issue is whether Fort Saskatchewan can remain a reliable source of refined metal without direct participation in Moa. The answer will depend on feedstock access, legal separation, inventory management and customer confidence.

The dissolution also highlights a broader critical minerals lesson. Western supply chains can still carry high exposure when mines, intermediates or partners sit in sanctioned or politically sensitive jurisdictions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt’s exit from Moa shows that critical minerals security cannot rely on refining capacity alone. The real test is whether the entire chain, from mine ownership to intermediate feedstock and final metal, can survive sanctions, fuel disruption and geopolitical pressure.