India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis reshapes regional supply

Ferro-Silicon

India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis is forcing cutbacks and shutdowns. India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis stems from soaring power and charcoal costs. India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis threatens margins as tariffs stay elevated into 2026.

Cost shock and shutdowns in Meghalaya

Producers face a fixed tariff of Rs5.92/kWh in Meghalaya until March 2026. The state’s FeSi hub has 5,000–6,000 t per month capacity. However, many plants cut output by 20–30 percent. Three to four furnaces reportedly shut in recent weeks. Meanwhile, operators warn permanent closures may follow mounting losses.

Demand slump and competitive pressure

Domestic demand from stainless steel remains weak. As a result, FeSi offtake and pricing stay under pressure. Some manufacturers substitute with 98 percent silicon metal. Therefore, FeSi loses share in certain applications. Producers also battle higher charcoal prices, further eroding viability.

Producers urge policy relief to avert deeper cuts. Government action on power costs could stabilize operations. Otherwise, traders expect more closures in the coming months.

Bhutan strengthens its foothold with cheap hydropower. Consequently, Bhutanese FeSi offers near Rs85,000 per tonne ex-works. New plants and expansions are lifting Bhutan’s regional supply. India’s FeSi sector must adapt or cede long-term share.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s FeSi outlook hinges on power economics, not just demand. Relief on tariffs and input costs could slow attrition. Watch substitution trends and Bhutan’s capacity ramp through 2026.

Boeing 2Q commercial deliveries rise as production stabilizes

Boeing

Deliveries accelerate and China resumes intake

Boeing 2Q commercial deliveries rose sharply, signaling recovery from last year’s constraints. The company also resumed deliveries to China in June. Eight jets reached Chinese carriers after prior trade disruptions. Meanwhile, Boeing 2Q commercial deliveries highlight progress toward steadier output.

Quarterly 737 MAX handovers increased to 104 from 70 a year ago. However, shipments were little changed from the first quarter. Boeing still targets a 38-per-month build rate by year-end. Therefore, management emphasizes consistent, quality-focused production.

Dreamliner momentum strengthened across the quarter. Boeing delivered 24 787s, up from nine last year and 13 in the first quarter. The firm aims to lift 787 output to seven per month. It is investing $1bn to expand South Carolina capacity.

Inventory, safety scrutiny, and order book

Uncertainty remains around new-build versus inventory 787 deliveries. Boeing closed its Everett “shadow factory” used for rework earlier this year. Even so, it plans to deliver about half of remaining aircraft in 2025. As a result, inventory unwind should continue alongside fresh production.

Safety oversight persists after the June 12 Air India 787 crash. India’s regulator mandated enhanced inspections, which the fleet passed. Meanwhile, the backlog reached 6,590 aircraft on June 30. Net orders totaled 625 in the first half.

Policy risks still intersect with supply chains. Global OEMs oppose a U.S. Section 232 investigation into aircraft and engines. They warn it could disrupt trade and supplier coordination. Nevertheless, Boeing 2Q commercial deliveries underscore resilient demand into the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The quarter shows capacity stabilization, but quality gating and inventory mix still matter. Watch monthly 737 and 787 cadence against the 38-per-month goal. Backlog health looks durable, yet policy and certification timelines remain key variables.

Hindustan Zinc to Double Lead and Zinc Capacity

Hindustan Zinc

HZL Approves Major Expansion in Rajasthan

Hindustan Zinc (HZL) will double its lead, zinc and silver production capacity within five years. The company’s board has approved a Rs120bn ($1.39bn) investment for a new 250,000 t/yr integrated smelter in Debari, Rajasthan. Alongside, mined metal capacity will expand by 330,000 t, with the project targeted for completion in 36 months.

This expansion will raise HZL’s refined zinc and lead smelting capacity to nearly 2mn t/yr and boost silver production to 1,500 t/yr. Current annual production stands at 1.1mn t.

Anticipating India’s Rising Demand for Zinc

India’s zinc consumption is projected to rise sharply over the next decade. The International Zinc Association highlights that heavy infrastructure spending and steel sector growth will drive demand. HZL’s expansion aligns with this forecast, ensuring it can supply both domestic and global markets.

As the world’s largest integrated zinc producer and among the top five silver producers globally, HZL already dominates India’s primary zinc market with a 77% share. The planned increase in output strengthens its strategic position across international supply chains.

Strengthening Global Reach and Market Share

HZL supplies zinc, lead, and silver to more than 40 countries worldwide. Its production increase will reinforce India’s role as a key player in global metals markets. By expanding capacity, HZL positions itself to meet both export commitments and domestic industrial growth, particularly in construction, energy, and automotive sectors.

The expansion also reflects a broader trend of miners and smelters aligning investments with future metal-intensive infrastructure and green energy projects, where zinc plays a critical role in galvanization and corrosion resistance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HZL’s plan to double lead and zinc capacity is a strategic response to India’s infrastructure boom and global supply needs. By combining capacity growth with its existing market dominance, HZL strengthens its position as a global leader in base metals. This expansion also signals confidence in long-term demand despite current price volatility in the zinc market.

India’s HCL to Treble Copper Ore Output by 2031

Hindustan Copper

HCL Expands Copper Mining Capacity

Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL), India’s state-owned copper producer, has announced plans to triple its copper ore production capacity to 12.2mn t/yr by March 2031. The company will achieve this expansion through a combination of mine reopenings and expansions at existing sites.

In the fiscal year ending March 2024, HCL boosted output by 13% to 3.78mn tonnes compared with 3.35mn tonnes the year before. The firm expects to raise output to 4.35mn tonnes by fiscal 2025-26, adding around 2mn tonnes annually until its long-term target is met.

Strategic Investment to Meet Rising Demand

HCL has resumed operations at the Rakha mine in Jharkhand and plans to expand production at its Kendadih mine by 250,000 tonnes before December. To support these goals, the company will invest about 20bn rupees ($234mn) over the next 5–6 years.

This expansion aligns with India’s strategy to strengthen domestic copper production and reduce import reliance. Growing demand from infrastructure, renewable energy, electric vehicles, rural electrification, and urban housing projects will underpin copper consumption in the coming decade.

HCL remains India’s only fully integrated copper producer, operating across mining, ore processing, smelting, and refining under the ministry of mines. Its strategic role makes it critical in meeting India’s industrial and energy transition goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HCL’s aggressive expansion underscores India’s recognition of copper as a cornerstone of its energy and infrastructure growth. The plan reflects both a strategic hedge against import dependence and a long-term alignment with global copper demand trends driven by electrification. Investors will closely watch execution risks, particularly in financing and environmental compliance.

Zinc Demand and Supply Expected to Rebalance in 2025

Zinc

Recovery in Automotive, Infrastructure, and Green Energy to Boost Zinc Market

Global zinc demand is projected to rise marginally in 2025, driven by steady growth from automotive, infrastructure, and green energy sectors. According to the International Zinc Association (IZA), refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1%, with notable growth in India and the United States, while China and Europe show moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the zinc supply landscape is recovering after a contraction in 2024. ILZSG projects global mine supply will increase by 4.3% this year, supported by new output from the Kipushi, Tara, and Buenavista mines. However, some production sites, including Russia’s Ozernoye and the Red Dog mine in the U.S., may fall short of expectations, highlighting persistent uncertainty in the zinc supply chain.

Smelter expansions are also contributing to a long-term supply rebound. Boliden’s Odda 4.0 project in Norway is on track to reach 350,000 t/yr capacity in the second half of 2025. Additional capacity from the Nordenham smelter in Germany and new Chinese smelters will be partially offset by weaker output from facilities in Canada, Italy, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, the ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing last year’s deficit of 62,000 tonnes.

Automotive and Green Tech to Sustain Long-Term Zinc Growth

The automotive industry remains a key driver of zinc consumption, particularly in galvanised steel for vehicle bodies. Western markets already have high galvanisation rates, while China and India are rapidly catching up. The IZA forecasts a 22% increase in auto-sector zinc use by 2030, translating to an additional 140,000 tonnes of demand.

India’s rapid urban development and China’s robust manufacturing output are also boosting zinc demand across infrastructure and consumer goods. In Europe, public investment in infrastructure and defence, especially in Germany, is expected to support a moderate recovery in zinc usage from late 2025 onward.

Green energy technologies — including wind, solar, and battery systems — are also emerging as major zinc consumers. The IZA projects demand from green tech will exceed 652,000 tonnes by 2030, with more than $1 billion already invested in zinc-based energy storage systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc's supply-demand fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, with rising industrial and green-tech consumption offsetting geopolitical and logistical risks. The rebound in mine and smelter capacity suggests a structurally balanced market may return by 2025. However, long-term resilience will depend on investment in both primary production and recycling infrastructure.

Shyam Metalics Wagon Plant in West Bengal Targets 4,800 Annual Production Capacity

Shyam Metalics

Shyam Metalics wagon plant development advances with a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility planned for Kharagpur, West Bengal. The Indian metals producer's Shyam Metalics wagon plant will achieve 4,800 wagons annual production capacity through its step-down subsidiary Ramsarup Industries, representing a significant expansion into railway infrastructure manufacturing that aligns with government self-reliance initiatives.

Phased Development Strategy Ensures Operational Efficiency

Shyam Metalics wagon plant construction follows a strategic two-phase development approach targeting March 2026 operations commencement. Phase one establishes 2,400 wagons annual capacity, equivalent to approximately 8 wagons daily production throughput. Phase two doubles output to the full 4,800 wagons annually, providing scalable growth aligned with market demand evolution.

Meanwhile, the facility will manufacture diverse wagon types including flat, open, box, covered, tank, and specialized configurations. Company director Sheetij Agarwal emphasized the adoption of "Uni-Flow" manufacturing layout conforming to international standards for optimal production efficiency. This comprehensive product portfolio positions Shyam Metalics to serve varied railway transportation requirements across industrial sectors.

Strategic Alignment with National Infrastructure Initiatives

However, the wagon manufacturing venture represents more than industrial diversification for Shyam Metalics. The project forms a cornerstone of the company's defined five-year capital expenditure plan while directly supporting government "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" self-reliance initiatives. This alignment demonstrates Shyam Metalics' commitment to domestic infrastructure development and reduced import dependence.

Therefore, the West Bengal location provides strategic advantages including proximity to steel production centers and established transportation networks. Kharagpur's industrial infrastructure supports efficient raw material sourcing while facilitating finished product distribution across India's extensive railway network. The location choice reflects careful consideration of supply chain optimization and market access requirements.

Market Positioning in Growing Railway Sector

Furthermore, India's railway modernization efforts create substantial demand for advanced wagon technologies and increased freight capacity. The government's infrastructure investment priorities include railway expansion and rolling stock upgrades to support economic growth objectives. Shyam Metalics' entry into wagon manufacturing positions the company to capture these expanding market opportunities.

As a result, the facility reflects broader trends toward integrated metals companies expanding into value-added manufacturing segments. Shyam Metalics leverages its metallurgical expertise while diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional steel production. This vertical integration strategy enhances profitability while reducing dependence on commodity price volatility in base metals markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Shyam Metalics' wagon plant investment exemplifies how Indian metals companies strategically expand into infrastructure manufacturing to support national self-reliance objectives while diversifying beyond volatile commodity markets. The phased development approach and comprehensive product portfolio demonstrate sophisticated planning that positions the company advantageously within India's rapidly modernizing railway transportation sector.

NBVL Ferro-Silicon Output Surges 480% on Strong Export Demand

NBVL

NBVL ferro-silicon output achieved remarkable growth with production reaching 13,490 tonnes in FY2025, compared to just 2,380 tonnes the previous year. The Indian ferro-alloy producer's NBVL ferro-silicon production increase of nearly six times reflects strong international orders, particularly from the US market, amid challenging domestic conditions and oversupply pressures.

Strategic Furnace Conversion Drives Production Expansion

NBVL ferro-silicon production capacity expanded through strategic infrastructure investments beginning in January 2024. The company launched its first ferro-silicon furnace with 11,000 tonnes annual capacity, followed by a second furnace in December 2024. However, the second furnace switched back to silico-manganese production on May 1, 2025, following the US imposition of additional 10% tariffs on ferro-silicon imports.

Meanwhile, the furnace conversion strategy impacted silico-manganese production at NBVL's Paloncha operations. Silico-manganese output decreased 4.4% to 25,617 tonnes in Q4 FY2025 as two furnaces were temporarily converted to ferro-silicon production. Total silico-manganese production fell slightly to just under 104,200 tonnes for the full financial year.

Export Focus Delivers Revenue Growth Despite Market Challenges

However, NBVL's export-oriented strategy proved successful despite domestic market headwinds and international trade tensions. Export sales constituted 40% of total sales during FY2025, with the majority of ferro-silicon shipments destined for US markets. Combined silico-manganese and ferro-silicon sales reached 42,327 tonnes in Q4, significantly higher than 20,068 tonnes in the previous quarter.

Therefore, the company's strategic pivot toward international markets generated improved revenue and profitability metrics. NBVL management indicated expectations for better performance in FY2026 while targeting Japanese markets rather than domestic or other international destinations. This geographic diversification strategy aims to reduce dependence on tariff-affected US ferro-silicon trade.

Market Conditions Shape Future Investment Strategy

Furthermore, NBVL management expressed caution about domestic expansion plans citing existing oversupply conditions in India's ferro-alloy market. The company indicated it would consider expansion only after securing dedicated raw material sources to ensure competitive cost structures. This conservative approach reflects broader industry challenges including volatile raw material prices and intense competition.

As a result, the US tariff implementation on ferro-silicon products demonstrates how trade policies directly influence production decisions and market strategies. NBVL's quick response in switching the second furnace back to silico-manganese production illustrates operational flexibility in navigating changing trade conditions while maintaining export competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

NBVL's dramatic ferro-silicon output expansion exemplifies how Indian ferro-alloy producers leverage export opportunities to offset domestic market weakness, though trade policy changes require rapid operational adjustments. The company's strategic furnace switching capabilities demonstrate the importance of production flexibility in navigating volatile international trade conditions that increasingly characterize global ferro-alloy markets.

Magellan Aerospace Profits Surge 72% Driven by Defense Sector Growth

Magellan Aerospace

Magellan Aerospace profits jumped 72% to C$10.8 million ($7.7 million) in the first quarter, demonstrating strong performance across commercial and defense segments. The Canadian aerospace components producer reported total revenue growth of 11% to C$260.9 million ($186.2 million) compared to the same period last year. Magellan Aerospace profits benefited from diversified revenue streams, with 62% from commercial customers and 38% from defense sector contracts.

Supply Chain Challenges Impact Commercial Aerospace Operations

Commercial aerospace production faces significant headwinds as supply chain delays affect major customers including Boeing and Airbus. Magellan expects these supply chain disruptions could persist throughout 2025, potentially reducing commercial sales volumes. Meanwhile, US tariffs threaten to delay deliveries and slow overall commercial aerospace production, creating additional challenges for Magellan Aerospace profits in the commercial segment.

However, defense sector demand shows promising growth potential due to increasing global conflicts and trade tensions. European defense buyers have shifted away from US products due to tariff concerns, potentially boosting demand for Magellan's defense offerings. Therefore, defense spending increases could offset commercial aerospace headwinds and support sustained Magellan Aerospace profits growth.

Strategic Partnerships Expand Global Manufacturing Footprint

Magellan secured key contracts and partnerships to strengthen its market position across multiple regions. The company signed an amendment with GE Aerospace to produce engine components for the Korean KF-21 aircraft program on March 6th. As a result, this contract diversifies Magellan's defense portfolio beyond traditional North American and European markets.

Furthermore, Magellan signed a memorandum of understanding with aerospace manufacturer Aequs to explore joint sand casting facility construction in India. This strategic partnership could provide cost-effective manufacturing capabilities while accessing India's growing aerospace market. Consequently, these international expansions support long-term Magellan Aerospace profits growth through geographic diversification.

The company's revenue distribution reflects its global reach, with 40% from Canada, 31% from Europe, and 29% from the United States. This balanced geographic exposure helps mitigate regional market risks while capitalizing on defense spending increases worldwide.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Magellan's strong Q1 performance highlights the resilience of specialized aerospace component manufacturers amid supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The company's strategic pivot toward defense contracts and international partnerships positions it well to capitalize on global defense spending increases while managing commercial aerospace headwinds effectively.

Vedanta Expands Metals Exploration Across India to Secure Critical Minerals

Vedanta

Multi-state exploration strengthens Vedanta’s role in clean energy supply chains

Vedanta expands metals exploration across six Indian states in a strategic push to secure critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies. The company is targeting copper, nickel, cobalt, vanadium, tungsten, chromium, and PGEs in regions including Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh. This initiative aligns with India’s growing focus on mineral self-sufficiency and value chain localization.

Auction wins and value-added aluminum investment boost vertical integration

In the fourth round of India’s critical mineral auctions, Vedanta secured four mineral blocks. These include vanadium and graphite in Arunachal Pradesh, and a polymetallic block with cobalt, manganese, and iron in Karnataka. Its subsidiary Hindustan Zinc (HZL) also won two tungsten blocks in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Alongside exploration, Vedanta is expanding downstream capabilities—targeting over 90% value-added aluminum output through investments in billets, foundry alloys, rolled products, and wire rods.

Zinc alloy innovation and aluminum capex signal industrial diversification

HZL is diversifying zinc use cases beyond steel galvanization by launching a 30,000-tonne zinc alloy facility. Meanwhile, Vedanta is investing $1.5 billion to expand aluminum smelting and rolling capacity, including a major upgrade at its Odisha plant. These developments aim to deepen Vedanta’s footprint in aerospace, defense, solar, EVs, and battery infrastructure—critical to India's low-carbon ambitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vedanta’s aggressive critical mineral exploration and aluminum investments reflect India’s urgent drive to localize energy transition supply chains. With a diversified portfolio and state-backed auction wins, Vedanta is positioning itself as a key pillar in India's clean energy industrial ecosystem.

Indian Ferro-Alloy Industry Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Global Uncertainty

Indian Ferro Alloy

The Indian ferro-alloy industry confronts severe headwinds as global tensions, escalating production costs, and declining export demand create a perfect storm of challenges. Despite chrome and manganese alloys from India remaining exempt from tariffs in most international markets, producers struggle with deteriorating market conditions and regulatory pressures that threaten operational viability.

Production Costs and Regulatory Burdens Squeeze Margins

Rising production costs severely impact Indian ferro-alloy manufacturers, particularly due to higher power tariffs in key regions like West Bengal. Consequently, producers must manage operational expenses with unprecedented precision to maintain profitability. Meanwhile, some alloy producers have strategically shifted capacity from ferro-chrome to manganese alloys, seeking higher margins amid challenging market conditions.

The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) quality order requirements add another layer of complexity for Indian ferro-alloy producers. Administrative costs have surged following the inclusion of ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese, and silicon-manganese in the BIS quality order list. Therefore, producers face mounting pressure to complete registration before the November deadline, as manufacturing and distribution without proper certification will be prohibited from November 8th.

Export Markets Deteriorate as Global Demand Weakens

Export prospects for Indian ferro-alloy products have deteriorated significantly across key international markets. Demand for Indian ferro-chrome under long-term contracts has plummeted by an estimated 60-70% compared to last year, forcing many exporters to rely entirely on volatile spot demand. However, this shift exposes producers to greater market uncertainty and price volatility.

European markets present particularly acute challenges for Indian ferro-alloy exporters. The EU's pending safeguard investigation into manganese and silicon-based alloys, launched in December, creates substantial uncertainty for market participants. As a result, European appetite for Indian manganese alloys collapsed to just 2-3 containers in April, compared to India's 300,000 tonnes of manganese alloy exports to Europe in 2024.

Additionally, mounting container freight costs of $50-55 per tonne from India to Europe further constrain exporters' competitiveness. Expectations suggest freight rates will increase further in late May, compounding the challenges facing Indian ferro-alloy suppliers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Indian ferro-alloy industry's current struggles reflect broader global supply chain disruptions and trade policy uncertainties affecting critical mineral markets. The combination of regulatory compliance costs, weakening export demand, and rising logistics expenses suggests a prolonged adjustment period ahead for Indian producers seeking to maintain their competitive position in international markets.

India Aluminium Quality Control Rules Tighten for 2025 Rollout

India aluminium

Government Targets Low-Quality Imports with Stricter Compliance Measures

India aluminium quality control measures will become stricter from October 2025, as the government enforces a new Quality Control Order (QCO). The regulation targets several aluminium and alloy products, including welded irrigation tubes, EC-grade rods, and wrought bars under specific Indian Standards (IS 733:1983, IS 5484:1997, IS 16011:2012). This initiative seeks to prevent substandard imports from neighboring countries.

Phased Implementation and Enterprise Exemptions

The India aluminium quality control regulation includes exemptions for small and micro enterprises. Small businesses can continue importing non-compliant aluminium products until January 2026, while micro enterprises have until April 2026. Research and development imports of up to 200kg also remain exempt if not commercially sold. This phased implementation ensures a smoother industry transition without major supply disruptions.

Export-Focused Adjustments and Domestic Safeguards

The latest amendment allows exemptions for select imported aluminium products, while the 2024 amendment previously exempted domestically manufactured aluminium destined for export. Therefore, the policy balances trade facilitation with domestic industry protection. India aluminium quality control frameworks now aim to raise product standards, reduce unfair competition, and align with broader industrial policy goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s aluminium QCO signals a broader industrial strategy that protects domestic producers while encouraging higher-grade imports. The transition period for SMEs reflects pragmatic governance, though it will require vigilance to prevent circumvention via R&D or micro-business loopholes.

Tronox TiO2 Market Share Poised to Grow Amid Anti-Dumping Duties

Tronox

Anti-Dumping Measures Shift Global Titanium Dioxide Landscape

Tronox is set to increase its TiO2 market share as Chinese exporters retreat from key regions due to anti-dumping actions. The EU introduced preliminary tariffs on Chinese TiO2 imports in January, and India and Brazil are preparing similar measures. As a result, Tronox anticipates a surge in demand for its titanium dioxide products, particularly in Europe and India.

Supply Tightening and Strategic Repositioning Support Growth

Chinese suppliers once shipped 270,000 t/yr of TiO2 into Europe, but this volume is now shrinking. Tronox has filled the gap, leveraging existing inventory and its Australian free-trade access to India. India’s 450,000 t/yr TiO2 market presents a major opportunity. Meanwhile, Tronox shut its 90,000 t/yr Botlek plant in the Netherlands and reallocated stock across its global network to optimize supply.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Positive Despite Pricing Pressure

While first-quarter TiO2 revenue declined 3% year-on-year, Tronox expects prices to stabilize or rise modestly. The company also sees zircon sales recovering later in the year after a weak start. With demand rebounding and supply constraints mounting, Tronox anticipates higher utilization rates in coming quarters, positioning itself for a larger Tronox TiO2 market share.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tronox is well-positioned to capitalize on global trade shifts and supply tightening. Anti-dumping tariffs are reshaping regional TiO2 dynamics, giving producers like Tronox a strategic edge—especially in high-growth markets like India.

ICSG Raises Global Refined Copper Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Supply Expansion

ICSG

Increased Output from DRC, China, and Indonesia Drives Market Shift

The global refined copper surplus forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The group now projects a 289,000-tonne surplus, up 49% from the 194,000 tonnes forecasted in September 2024. This revision reflects a surge in refined copper supply from major producers, including China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC, outpacing modest demand growth.

Copper Mine and Refining Capacity Expansion Continues

Global copper mine production is forecast to rise 2.3% in 2025 to 23.5 million tonnes, driven by expansions at Kamoa-Kakula (DRC), Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and Malmyzhskoye (Russia). In parallel, refined copper output is expected to grow 2.9% to 28.3 million tonnes, with major contributions from new Chinese and Indonesian capacity. The trend will persist into 2026, with mine output reaching 24.1 million tonnes and refined output hitting 28.7 million tonnes.

Demand Outlook Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite continued demand from the energy transition and digitalization, the ICSG has revised 2025 refined copper demand growth downward to 2.4%, totaling 28 million tonnes. The 2026 forecast is softer still, at 1.8%. Usage in China is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, but only 0.8% in 2026. Demand from the EU, Japan, and the U.S. remains weak, although India’s semiconductor expansion offers upside potential.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The updated global refined copper surplus forecast signals a recalibration of market dynamics in favor of supply. While long-term electrification trends remain bullish, short-term overcapacity may weigh on copper prices and reshape global trade flows.

Hindustan Zinc Metal Production Hits Record High in FY2025

Hindustan Zinc Metal

India’s leading non-ferrous metal producer, Hindustan Zinc, reported record metal production for the financial year ending March 2025. The company achieved 1.095 million tonnes (t) of mined metal output, marking a 1% increase over the previous year. This growth reflects improved ore grades and better mill recovery rates, particularly from the Agucha and Zawar mines.

Refining Output Also Grows

Refined metal output reached 1.052mn t, up 2% year-over-year. Hindustan Zinc refined 827,000t of zinc — a 1% increase — and 225,000t of lead, up 4%. The production gains indicate strong operational efficiency and growing demand in India’s construction and energy sectors.

2026 Outlook Signals Continued Expansion

Looking ahead, Hindustan Zinc aims to produce 1.125mn t of mined metal in the next fiscal year, including zinc, lead, and silver. Therefore, the company’s upward momentum is expected to continue, solidifying its leadership in the global zinc and lead markets. The Hindustan Zinc metal production trend aligns with India’s infrastructure push and resource security strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hindustan Zinc's consistent production growth reinforces India's strategic position in the global zinc and lead supply chain. As resource nationalism rises, the firm’s stable output and expanding outlook make it a key player to watch.

India Proposes GEI Targets Under Carbon Credit Trading Scheme

India

India’s environment ministry has launched consultations on new emission rules tied to its carbon credit trading scheme. The draft, titled Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025, sets GEI targets for 282 companies across four sectors. The move is aimed at helping India meet its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.

The India carbon credit trading scheme allows companies to meet targets by reducing emissions or purchasing carbon credit certificates. Companies that outperform can bank or sell excess credits, while underperformers must buy credits at double the average traded carbon price. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency, under the power ministry, will calculate pricing based on trading activity.

Cement and Aluminium Sectors Face Highest Compliance Pressure

The draft rules impact companies from the cement, aluminium, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper sectors. Cement dominates the list, with 186 of the 282 entities covered. The aluminium industry also features prominently, with 13 firms required to report emissions under the proposed rules. These targets apply for two compliance periods—2025–26 and 2026–27.

Companies have until mid-June 2025 to comment on the proposed GEI framework. They must either cut emissions or offset them through credits within India’s regulated carbon market. Failure to comply will result in financial penalties tied to average carbon credit prices. This mechanism could drive new investment in low-carbon technology and sustainable manufacturing practices.

India’s Domestic Carbon Market Gains Policy Momentum

The India carbon credit trading scheme has evolved rapidly since its introduction in the Energy Conservation Bill of 2022. In 2023, the government rolled out a formal Carbon Credits Trading Scheme (CCTS), followed by the Detailed Procedure for Compliance Mechanism in 2024. The new GEI targets represent a significant step toward operationalizing India’s voluntary-to-compliance carbon market transition.

By linking emission reduction to a monetized credit system, India aims to create financial incentives for industrial decarbonization. This initiative positions India as a leader among emerging markets developing domestic carbon pricing frameworks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s carbon market now enters a pivotal stage with enforceable GEI targets and structured credit penalties. For energy-intensive sectors like aluminium and cement, this could reshape investment flows and ESG compliance strategies. Market participants should monitor evolving credit pricing mechanisms and sector-specific caps.

Global Refined Copper Market in Surplus Amid Production Growth

Copper

Copper production outpaces demand in early 2025

The global refined copper market recorded a surplus in January and February 2025, as production exceeded consumption, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The refined copper surplus reached 150,000 metric tonnes (t) during the period, driven by project ramp-ups and growing output from key producing regions.

Global refined copper output totaled 4.59mn t in the first two months, while consumption stood at 4.44mn t. This marks a slight decline from the 157,000t surplus seen in the same period last year. Still, the figures highlight a persistent oversupply trend in the refined copper market.

Regional trends in refined copper production and consumption

Global copper mine production rose by 1.7pc year-on-year to 3.72mn t. Growth was supported by increased production at Peru’s Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and Toromocho mines, and expansion at the Kamoa mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, mine output declined in Asia (-1.5pc), North America (-2.5pc), and Chile (-4pc).

Refined copper output rose 0.9pc to 4.59mn t. Of this, 3.81mn t came from primary sources and 777,000t from secondary scrap production. China and the DRC contributed significantly, with 2pc year-on-year growth, and Asia excluding China saw a 6pc increase due to India's Adani refinery ramp-up. Chile, however, experienced an 18pc fall in refined output.

On the demand side, global refined copper usage grew by 1.1pc to 4.44mn t. Chinese apparent demand rose by 1.6pc, while ex-China demand grew just 0.5pc, with EU, Japanese, and US demand remaining subdued. February alone showed a monthly surplus of 61,000t, with 2.2mn t produced and 2.1mn t consumed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market surplus in early 2025 reflects uneven regional dynamics, where supply growth outpaces sluggish global demand. While China continues to lead both output and consumption, weakening demand in the US, EU, and Japan suggests potential headwinds. Market participants should closely monitor output cuts or policy-driven demand stimuli to rebalance the market.

Rio Tinto Signs Low-Carbon Aluminium Project Deal in India

Rio Tinto, Low-Carbon Aluminium

Focus Keyphrase: Low-Carbon Aluminium Project

Rio Tinto signed an agreement to launch a low-carbon aluminium project in India, targeting rapid growth in sustainable metal production. The deal with India's AMG Metal & Mining focuses on a renewable-powered aluminium smelter and alumina refinery, aiming to reshape the region’s green aluminum supply chain.

The proposed project includes a 1mn t/yr aluminium smelter and a 2mn t/yr alumina refinery, with a 500,000 t/yr smelter under study for phase one. It will use renewable energy with pumped hydro storage, aligning with Rio Tinto’s strategy to expand low-carbon aluminium operations in emerging markets.

India as a Strategic Base for Clean Aluminium

Rio Tinto’s entry into India signals a strategic shift toward responsible and cost-effective aluminium production in Asia. The partnership supports India's aluminium needs and European export opportunities, backed by Rio Tinto’s Australian bauxite reserves.

Jerome Pecresse, CEO of Rio Tinto Aluminium, emphasized the company’s commitment to clean energy and long-term aluminium supply chains. The firm plans to leverage India's industrial expansion while maintaining its ESG commitments.

Renewable Energy Integration Gains Traction

This low-carbon aluminium project reflects a growing trend in decarbonizing metals production, especially in energy-intensive sectors. By incorporating pumped hydro storage, the project aims to deliver stable, sustainable electricity to power smelting operations, cutting carbon emissions significantly.

As global demand for green aluminium increases, Rio Tinto positions itself to supply responsibly sourced metal across multiple continents.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s move into India’s aluminium sector reflects a convergence of ESG priorities and emerging market demand. This project could become a benchmark for future low-carbon metals initiatives in Asia and beyond.

Vedanta Posts Record-High Metals Output in FY2024-25

Vedanta

Capacity Expansions and Operational Gains Fuel Performance Across Vedanta’s Mining Portfolio

Vedanta Resources reported a record-high metals production for the 2024–25 fiscal year, supported by capacity additions and operational efficiency. The company’s total metals output rose across key commodities including alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, chrome, and copper.

Vedanta’s Lanjigarh refinery produced 1.97 million tonnes of alumina, up 9% year-on-year, driven by the commissioning of a new expansion train. This aligns with the opening of its 5mn t/yr alumina refinery in Odisha, supported by expanded rail infrastructure, streamlining raw material flow.

However, alumina production declined in the January–March 2025 quarter, dropping to 484,000t from 543,000t due to unplanned supply chain issues, which were later resolved.

Higher Aluminum, Zinc, and Chrome Output Reflect Strategic Execution

Aluminum production increased 2% to 2.42 million tonnes, with stable quarterly output confirming consistency in smelting operations. Zinc and lead production reached 1.05 million tonnes, up 2% owing to higher ore grades and improved mill recovery.

Meanwhile, chrome ore production rose to 250,000 tonnes, supported by enhancements at Ferro Alloys. Ferro-chrome output rose 4% to 83,000 tonnes, aided by the startup of a new furnace in Q4 despite earlier maintenance shutdowns.

Copper cathode production at the Silvassa smelter climbed 6% to 149,000 tonnes, reinforcing Vedanta’s non-ferrous expansion strategy.

Vedanta Reinforces Its Position in India’s Strategic Metals Sector

Vedanta’s diversified growth across base and industrial metals underlines its resilience and capital allocation discipline. From alumina and aluminum to zinc, lead, and copper, Vedanta’s performance bolsters India’s metal self-sufficiency amid volatile global markets.

While supply chain volatility remains a risk, Vedanta’s response capability and investment in infrastructure position it well for further growth. These production highs also contribute to India’s ambition to become a manufacturing and raw material powerhouse.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vedanta’s year-end performance reflects more than just output—it’s a signal of India’s maturing industrial backbone. With strategic investment in refining and processing infrastructure, Vedanta reinforces its role in a global market seeking stable, diversified supply beyond China. The key challenge ahead will be sustaining momentum amid global pricing shifts and domestic regulatory changes.

Moil Achieves Record Manganese Ore Output in FY2024-25

Moil

India's State Miner Sees Steady Growth in Output and Sales

India's state-run Manganese Ore India Ltd (Moil) recorded its highest-ever manganese ore production in fiscal year 2024–25. The company reported 1.8 million tonnes of output, up 2.7% year-on-year, and sales of 1.58 million tonnes, marking a 3.3% annual growth.

Moil’s ability to increase production despite global ore cost pressures and sluggish market sentiment underscores its operational efficiency. This performance strengthens Moil’s position as a critical domestic supplier, covering nearly 50% of India's manganese ore demand.

Ferro-Manganese Output Rises Despite Global Headwinds

In addition to ore production, Moil also boosted ferro-manganese output to 12,000 tonnes, an 18% increase compared to the prior year. This uptick comes amid a challenging global environment, with ore prices climbing due to supply tightness from major producers like South Africa and Australia.

Meanwhile, India’s reliance on imports for the other half of its manganese ore demand adds pressure on pricing stability and supply diversification strategies. Moil’s sustained growth in both raw ore and ferro-alloy production signals a resilient position in India’s steel and alloy value chain.

Strategic Importance to India’s Steel Sector

Manganese is essential for steel production, and Moil’s record output directly supports India’s ambitions for infrastructure growth and self-reliance. As domestic demand for manganese alloys and specialty steels grows, Moil’s continued investment in output expansion will be crucial.

India’s push to reduce dependency on imports aligns with Moil’s upward production trend, helping to insulate the country from global price volatility. Looking ahead, the company’s ability to maintain scale and efficiency will shape its competitiveness in a tight global market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moil's production record is a quiet but critical milestone in India's industrial ambitions. With ferroalloy demand rising and global manganese supply tightening, India’s partial self-sufficiency via Moil becomes more than just economic strategy—it’s geopolitical insulation. The next step? Scaling sustainably while navigating price and policy turbulence.

Codelco to Supply Copper Concentrate to Adani's Kutch Smelter

Codelco

Codelco Strengthens Presence in India’s Copper Market

Codelco will supply copper concentrate to Adani Group’s new Kutch smelter in Gujarat, marking a major Indo-Chilean trade step. The smelter, commissioned on 28 March, will initially produce 500,000 t/yr of copper. Phase two aims to double that capacity. Codelco views India’s fast-growing economy as a key market for critical metals like copper.

Adani's Kutch Smelter Targets Domestic Demand

Adani’s smelter includes a copper refinery, wire rod unit, acid plant, and precious metals recovery facility. The project supports India's import substitution drive, aiming to meet surging copper demand domestically. All output will serve the Indian market, reflecting the nation’s aggressive infrastructure and energy transition goals.

Codelco and Hindustan Copper Expand Cooperation

Codelco also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Hindustan Copper for mineral exploration and processing projects. This move signals long-term collaboration between two state-backed mining leaders in resource development. Such partnerships are key to securing reliable metal supply chains amid global geopolitical shifts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s strategic alignment with India’s copper industry reflects the global shift toward bilateral resource security. With India emerging as a copper demand powerhouse, such agreements ensure supply chain resilience and deeper South-South cooperation in critical minerals.