CBAM Article 27a Deletion Would Tighten EU Carbon Border Rules

CBAM

CBAM article 27a deletion would make the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism more rigid, predictable and difficult to suspend. The European Parliament’s environment committee is preparing to propose removing the clause that would allow temporary exemptions from CBAM under serious and unforeseen circumstances.

The proposal comes from a draft legal report prepared by Dutch centre-left MEP Mohammed Chahim. It signals that parliament may push for a tougher CBAM framework than some member states or industrial importers would prefer.

CBAM article 27a deletion matters because exemptions could weaken the market signal behind the carbon border system. If importers believe CBAM can be paused during disruption, the mechanism may lose some of its pricing certainty and investment value.

The draft instead proposes a narrower system for exceptional cases linked to prolonged military conflict. In those situations, the European Commission would assess whether affected operators can still comply with CBAM requirements.

This approach keeps the mechanism intact while recognising that war can disrupt reporting, verification, logistics and administrative compliance. It also avoids creating a broad exemption channel that could be used during ordinary market stress.

The proposal shows how CBAM is shifting from launch-stage implementation toward legal hardening. The EU is now debating how much flexibility the system should allow without undermining its role as a carbon-cost equalisation tool.

Parliament Seeks Fewer Exemptions and Rejects Article 6 Credits

The most important legal change is the proposed removal of article 27a. That article would allow goods to be temporarily exempted from CBAM during serious and unforeseen circumstances.

The environment committee draft argues that this flexibility could weaken CBAM’s strength and predictability. Predictability is central to the mechanism because importers, exporters and industrial buyers need to know how carbon costs will apply over time.

A broad exemption article could also create lobbying pressure during periods of high energy prices, trade disruption or geopolitical tension. Once a suspension route exists, affected industries may push to use it whenever CBAM costs become commercially painful.

CBAM article 27a deletion would therefore protect the mechanism from becoming too politically adjustable. That is important as the EU begins phasing down free allowances under the emissions trading system and shifting more carbon-cost exposure toward imports.

The draft does not ignore exceptional disruption entirely. It proposes a replacement article focused on prolonged military conflict and its impact on affected regions.

This is a narrower and more defensible framework. A military conflict can prevent companies from collecting emissions data, meeting verification requirements or maintaining normal trade documentation. But that is different from giving broad exemptions whenever market conditions become difficult.

The draft also proposes removing language that would allow the EU to consider carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement as part of the carbon price already paid on CBAM-covered goods.

This is strategically significant. Article 6 credits could, in theory, reduce CBAM liabilities if foreign producers claim they have already paid a carbon price through internationally recognised credits. But the draft calls this premature and counterproductive.

The concern is credibility. International carbon credits can vary widely in price, quality and environmental integrity. Allowing them into CBAM too early could weaken the mechanism and create disputes over whether credits represent real emissions reductions.

This is especially important for heavy industry. Steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and other CBAM-covered sectors need clear rules on what counts as a paid carbon cost. If low-cost or low-integrity credits reduce CBAM exposure, EU producers may argue that the system fails to protect them from carbon leakage.

By rejecting Article 6 credits, the draft keeps CBAM tied more closely to direct carbon pricing and verifiable emissions. That would make the system stricter, but also simpler for enforcement.

The legal direction is clear. Parliament’s environment committee appears to favour a CBAM model with limited exemptions, cautious treatment of offsets and stronger predictability for industry.

For exporters into the EU, this raises the compliance threshold. They will need credible emissions data, verified reporting and direct carbon-cost evidence rather than relying on broad exemptions or international credit claims.

Sector Expansion and Indirect Emissions Could Widen CBAM’s Industrial Reach

The draft also points toward a broader CBAM after the next review, scheduled by the end of 2027. It says the EU should consider expanding the mechanism’s sectoral scope to additional industries.

The sectors identified include organic chemicals, polymers and scrap materials from pulp, paper and glass. These areas have already been assessed as technically feasible for inclusion by the Commission.

This matters because CBAM currently focuses on a narrower set of carbon-intensive sectors. Expanding into chemicals and polymers would move the mechanism deeper into industrial supply chains and downstream manufacturing.

Organic chemicals and polymers are especially important because they sit inside a wide range of finished goods. If CBAM expands into these materials, the mechanism could affect packaging, automotive parts, consumer goods, industrial components and many other value chains.

Including scrap materials from pulp, paper and glass would also widen the mechanism’s reach into recycling and secondary raw materials. This could create new reporting challenges because scrap flows often involve mixed origins, complex supply chains and variable embedded emissions.

The draft also calls for CBAM to gradually cover indirect emissions in more sectors. Indirect emissions are already included for fertilisers and cement, but not across all covered products.

This could become one of the most important future changes. Indirect emissions reflect the carbon intensity of electricity used in production. For sectors such as aluminium, steel and chemicals, power sourcing can materially change total embedded emissions.

If indirect emissions are added more broadly, exporters using coal-heavy power systems could face higher CBAM costs. Producers using renewable, nuclear or lower-carbon power could gain a competitive advantage.

This would sharpen CBAM’s industrial effect. The mechanism would no longer focus mainly on direct process emissions. It would also reward cleaner electricity systems and penalise high-carbon power inputs.

The draft asks the Commission to present a proposal by the end of 2027 after assessing technical and policy options. This creates a clear timeline for companies to prepare.

For metals producers, the direction is important. Aluminium and ferro-alloy production are highly electricity-intensive. If indirect emissions become more widely included, power procurement, renewable energy contracts and verified electricity data will become central to EU market access.

For chemical and polymer exporters, CBAM expansion could introduce carbon reporting into supply chains that have not yet faced the same level of scrutiny. This may force producers to improve emissions measurement well before formal inclusion.

The parliamentary timeline is also taking shape. The environment committee is expected to consider the proposed changes on 4-5 May and vote on whether to advance them on 6 July.

If approved, an indicative plenary vote is scheduled for 14 September. That vote would formalise the European Parliament’s position before negotiations with EU member states on the final legal text.

The draft follows a compromise proposed by the EU Council presidency, which had already suggested changes to article 27a. This means both parliament and member states are now actively shaping the flexibility, scope and legal strength of CBAM.

The key issue is balance. Industry wants clarity and workable compliance. Policymakers want to preserve the environmental and competitiveness purpose of the system. Exporters want flexibility during disruption. EU producers want strong protection against carbon leakage.

CBAM article 27a deletion sits at the centre of that debate. It would reduce the risk of temporary exemptions weakening the mechanism, but it would also make compliance more demanding during periods of market stress.

For global suppliers, the message is straightforward. CBAM is unlikely to become a soft or easily suspended regime. The EU is moving toward tighter verification, fewer loopholes and possible expansion into more industrial sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBAM article 27a deletion would make the EU carbon border system more credible, but also less forgiving. The bigger strategic signal is that Brussels is preparing to expand CBAM from a narrow carbon-pricing tool into a wider industrial competitiveness framework.

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Gains Parliamentary Support for 50-Tonne Threshold

EU CBAM

The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) received decisive parliamentary backing as the European Parliament's environment committee voted to implement proposed regulatory changes. The committee approved a minimum mass threshold of 50 tonnes for goods covered by the carbon border adjustment mechanism, effectively exempting approximately 90% of importers from CBAM requirements. This significant modification will streamline compliance while maintaining environmental effectiveness across key industrial sectors.

Parliamentary Vote Confirms CBAM Exemptions for Small-Scale Importers

The environment committee overwhelmingly supported the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism changes with 85 members voting in favor, only one against, and one abstention. Environment committee chair Antonio Decaro emphasized that amendments did not reopen other provisions of existing CBAM legislation. Therefore, the core framework of the carbon border adjustment mechanism remains intact while reducing administrative burden on smaller importers.

Meanwhile, the amendments clarify that CBAM applies to electricity importers but excludes power generated exclusively in European Economic Area countries. This exemption covers electricity from Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway imported into the EU. As a result, the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism maintains its focus on third-country imports while preserving regional energy cooperation.

Industrial Sectors Maintain Comprehensive CBAM Coverage Despite Exemptions

The revised EU carbon border adjustment mechanism will continue covering 99% of total CO2 emissions from imports of iron, steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizers. This comprehensive coverage ensures that the carbon border adjustment mechanism achieves its environmental objectives despite the small-importer exemption. However, the 50-tonne threshold significantly reduces compliance costs for smaller trading companies and specialized importers.

Parliamentary negotiations with EU member states will finalize the legal text under Antonio Decaro's leadership. EU states aim to agree their position by the end of May, setting the stage for final approval. Therefore, the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism implementation timeline remains on track for full enforcement across affected industrial sectors.

The carbon border adjustment mechanism represents a cornerstone of EU climate policy, targeting carbon leakage from high-emission industries. These amendments balance environmental effectiveness with practical implementation concerns raised by industry stakeholders.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This parliamentary approval demonstrates the EU's commitment to implementing CBAM while addressing legitimate concerns about administrative burden on smaller importers. The 50-tonne threshold strikes a practical balance that maintains environmental integrity while reducing compliance costs, positioning the carbon border adjustment mechanism as a more workable trade policy tool for the global metals and minerals industry.

Garpenberg Zinc Mine Halt Adds Fresh Pressure to European Zinc Supply

Garpenberg Zinc

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt has added another supply risk to an already tight zinc concentrate market. Boliden suspended mine production at the Swedish operation after seismic activity caused a rockfall and pressure wave on 14 March.

Boliden said seismic activity is normal at Garpenberg, but conditions rose to abnormally high levels late on 14 March. The company evacuated the mine for safety reasons, stopped mining during the evacuation, and suspended concentrator production on 15 March.

The incident also affected workers underground. A pressure wave from the rockfall hit four employees in nearby locations, making safety inspections the immediate priority before any restart.

Garpenberg Disruption Hits a Major European Zinc Asset

Garpenberg is one of Boliden’s most important base metals operations. The mine produced 101,780 tonnes of zinc last year, alongside 38,692 tonnes of lead and 735 tonnes of copper.

That scale makes the Garpenberg zinc mine important for European concentrate availability. Any extended outage could tighten regional feedstock supply and increase pressure on smelters already managing weak treatment charges.

Boliden said output will restart gradually once inspections of infrastructure and underground workings are complete. However, the company has not set a timeframe for resuming production, leaving buyers exposed to uncertainty.

Zinc Concentrate Market Faces Another Supply Constraint

The Garpenberg zinc mine halt comes at a sensitive moment for the zinc market. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelters are competing for limited feedstock while treatment charges stay low.

A temporary disruption at Garpenberg may not change the global balance alone. However, it matters because zinc smelters are already operating in a constrained raw material environment.

The outage also highlights the value of integrated mining and smelting systems. Boliden usually benefits from internal concentrate supply, but even integrated producers remain exposed when mine-level disruptions interrupt feed flows.

For European zinc consumers, the key issue is duration. A short safety-related stoppage would be manageable, but a longer suspension could reinforce concentrate tightness and add pressure to refined zinc supply planning.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Garpenberg shows how fragile zinc supply has become when even operational safety events can carry market significance. In a low-TC environment, every meaningful mine disruption strengthens the advantage of producers with diversified feed sources.

New Aluminum-Nickel Superalloy Promises 100% Hydrogen Combustion Engines

A groundbreaking superalloy, composed primarily of aluminum and nickel, has been developed by an engineering team at the University of Alberta. This innovative material is specifically designed for high-temperature applications, showcasing remarkable potential in advancing hydrogen combustion engines.

Referred to as a ‘complex concentrated alloy,’ this new superalloy is ideally suited for coating surfaces in gas turbines, power stations, vehicles, and airplane engines. Its introduction marks a significant advancement in material science.

In a paper published in the journal Materials Today, researchers detailed the alloy known as AlCrTiVNi5. This material exhibits exceptional thermomechanical properties, including high stability, low expansion, fracture tolerance, and an advantageous blend of strength and ductility. These characteristics make it particularly suitable for high-heat and high-pressure environments, such as those found in hydrogen engines.

Jing Liu, the senior author of the study, highlighted the alloy’s potential in a media statement. “If you would like to use a 100% hydrogen fuel combustion engine, the flame temperature is extremely high,” Liu explained. “Until now, none of the existing metallic coatings have been able to work in a 100% hydrogen combustion engine.”

Hydrogen combustion involves temperatures ranging from 600 to 1500 degrees Celsius, necessitating that all mechanical components resist both high heat and corrosion from steam. Presently, most hydrogen combustion engines in commercial use operate on a blend of fuels—such as natural gas and hydrogen or diesel and hydrogen. However, as industries increasingly adopt hydrogen as a primary fuel source, the need to prepare for ultra-high temperature conditions in fully hydrogen-fueled engines becomes imperative.

“As we move toward a 100% hydrogen combustion engine, we want to know which alloys can withstand the conditions. None of the existing ones did, but we learned valuable insights from these failures,” Liu noted.

The research team assessed the strengths and weaknesses of each existing commercially available alloy. Using theoretical simulations, they identified potential new combinations that might offer the desired strength and durability.

“We understand how things react when they heat up,” said Hao Zhang, co-author of the study. “So we use these simulations and calculations to understand how the interface between the matter and the environment changes if we change the composition.”

After identifying AlCrTiVNi5, the team subjected the new alloy to the same rigorous high-temperature tests used on existing alloys. While all existing alloys failed after 24 hours or less in the hot, corrosive environment, the new complex concentrated alloy demonstrated remarkable resilience.

“We conducted our experiment in these corrosive environments for up to 100 hours at 900 degrees Celsius, and it survived. That’s a significant improvement,” Zhang stated.

Although the alloy shows great promise for withstanding the heat of a high-percentage hydrogen combustion engine, further studies are necessary before it can be widely adopted.

“This alloy outperforms anything else on the market right now,” Liu said. “It opens the door for new possibilities and will hopefully advance the Canadian hydrogen economy.”

Glencore’s Metals Output Declines in 2Q

Switzerland-based mining firm Glencore's base metals production fell on the year in the second quarter, with copper, zinc, and nickel all registering declines. Its copper production was marred by lower grades from some historical stock depletion and unplanned mill downtime at its African assets, with a geotechnical event and subsequent mine stabilisation activities at the Antapaccay site affecting output in South America.

Glencore's copper output fell by 9% on the year to 222,900 tons during April-June, with its Mutanda asset registering a steep 27% drop in copper metal output to 7,100 tons. Copper in concentrates production at Antapaccay shed 42% to 26,500 tons.

The group's January-June copper output fell by 5% year on year to 462,600 tons. But Glencore expects to recoup its losses in the second half of the year and left its annual production guidance for copper unchanged at 950,000-1.01 million tons.

Glencore's second-quarter zinc output fell by 8% on the year to 211,600 tons. Volumes were lower from Antamina given its expected copper/zinc mine sequence this year, but the drop was partially offset by the ramp-up of Zhairem. The group's January-June zinc output fell by 4% on the year to 417,200 tons.

Glencore's nickel output suffered a heavy fall on the transition of its New Caledonia operations into care and maintenance. But the drop was partially offset by recovery at its Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations in Canada, together with higher production at Murrin Murrin in Australia.

Glencore's nickel output fell by 20% year on year to 20,400 tons in the second quarter, with January-June output registering a 5% fall to 44,200 tons. The drop was the result of its Koniambo operations in New Caledonia ceasing operations, going from an output of 7,700 tons of nickel in ferronickel in the second quarter of 2023 to zero this year.

Glencore's annual production guidance for nickel and zinc was unchanged at 80,000-90,000 tons and 900,000-950,000 tons, respectively.

The group's ferrochrome output fell by 16% on the year to 599,000 tons during January-June owing to the Rustenburg smelter's continued idled status in response to weak market conditions. A restart was pending an improved price and cost environment, the group said.

Glencore's cobalt production also fell by 27% year on year to 15,900 tons in the first half, attributed to lower run rates at Mutanda in response to a weak cobalt pricing environment, together with lower throughput and cobalt grades at the KCC asset.

KGHM Copper Production Falls 6% in Q1 Despite Strong Pricing Environment

KGHM

KGHM copper production declined 6% year-over-year to 169,000 tonnes in the first quarter as planned maintenance shutdowns and asset divestments offset operational improvements. The Polish copper producer faced reduced output from planned maintenance at its Glogow II smelter and the February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine. However, KGHM copper production remained aligned with company budget targets while benefiting from stronger copper prices and diversified sales strategies across global markets.

Polish Operations Maintain Stability Amid Planned Maintenance Activities

KGHM's Polish assets delivered consistent performance with 99,400 tonnes of copper concentrate production and 134,000 tonnes of electrolytic copper output during the quarter. These production levels met company targets despite the scheduled maintenance shutdown at the Glogow II smelter facility. Meanwhile, the company's Polish operations continue serving as the backbone of overall production capacity and revenue generation.

The planned maintenance activities demonstrated KGHM's commitment to operational excellence and long-term asset sustainability. These scheduled shutdowns ensure optimal equipment performance and safety standards across the Polish mining complex. Therefore, the temporary production impact reflects strategic maintenance planning rather than operational challenges or market-driven constraints.

International Assets Show Mixed Performance Across Geographic Regions

Sierra Gorda mine in Chile delivered exceptional performance with 20,800 tonnes of copper production, representing a 22% increase from the previous year. KGHM holds a 55% ownership stake in this strategic Chilean asset, which benefited from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. As a result, Sierra Gorda's strong performance partially offset production declines from other international operations.

KGHM International assets in North America experienced contrasting results, with production falling 10% to 14,400 tonnes due to strategic portfolio changes. The February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine removed production capacity while lower recovery rates at the US Robinson mine further reduced output. However, these international operations remain important components of KGHM's geographic diversification strategy.

Revenue performance demonstrated resilience despite lower production volumes, rising 8% to 8.9 billion zlotys ($2.35 billion) through the quarter. The three-month LME copper contract averaged $9,411 per tonne, significantly higher than the $8,537 per tonne recorded in the previous year. Consequently, strong copper pricing compensated for production declines while supporting overall financial performance and investment capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

KGHM's Q1 results highlight the copper industry's current dynamics where strong pricing environments can offset temporary production challenges from maintenance and portfolio optimization. The company's planned 3.8 billion zloty investment program for 2025, focusing on underground development and shaft sinking, positions KGHM for long-term growth despite near-term production volatility from operational and strategic factors.

First Solar Module Guidance Holds as US Solar Manufacturing Scales

First Solar

First Solar module guidance remains unchanged for 2026 as the US thin-film solar manufacturer continues expanding domestic production while managing trade and policy uncertainty. The company expects to sell 17-18.2GW of modules this year, supporting projected sales of $4.9bn-5.2bn.

First Solar module guidance was reaffirmed after first-quarter module sales reached 3.8GW. Sales totalled slightly more than $1bn, up from $845.6mn a year earlier.

First Solar module guidance also reflects strong demand across the US and India. The company booked $1.7bn of new orders in the first quarter, showing that solar demand remains robust despite uncertainty around tariffs, investigations and energy policy.

The company expects second-quarter module sales of 3.4-4GW. Its contracted backlog stood at 47.9GW at the end of the quarter, worth about $14.4bn, with deliveries scheduled through 2030.

Trade Policy Shapes US Booking Strategy

First Solar said it will take a highly selective approach to US bookings while waiting for key trade policy outcomes. The company is watching the Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports and the Section 337 investigation into solar cells and modules.

This matters because US solar manufacturing is increasingly shaped by trade rules, tax credits and reshoring policy. Producers must balance demand growth with the risk that tariff changes could alter pricing, margins and customer decisions.

First Solar produced 4.3GW of modules in the first quarter. Around 3GW came from US facilities, while 1.3GW came from international operations.

The company’s US plants ran at a 96% utilisation rate. By contrast, its Malaysia and Vietnam facilities remained underutilised because of tariff and policy uncertainty.

That split shows the advantage of domestic production in the current policy environment. US-made modules can benefit from stronger customer confidence, tax incentives and lower exposure to trade restrictions.

First Solar also expects Section 45X tax credits of $330mn-400mn in the second quarter, assuming the current US policy environment remains in place. These credits are a major support for domestic solar manufacturing economics.

Domestic Expansion Supports Reshoring Strategy

First Solar’s South Carolina finishing facility is expected to start production in the second half of this year. The facility will provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules that begin production at overseas factories.

This expansion supports First Solar’s broader reshoring and localisation strategy. It allows the company to increase US-linked manufacturing content while maintaining flexibility across its global production network.

The company also completed the launch of its copper replacement technology at its Perrysburg, Ohio, facility at the end of the first quarter. This supports product development and manufacturing efficiency.

First Solar’s profit rose by 65% to $346.6mn in the first quarter. The increase shows that strong sales, high US utilisation and policy support are improving earnings.

The wider market signal is clear. Solar module demand remains strong, but the competitive landscape is being reshaped by trade investigations, domestic incentives and regional manufacturing strategies.

For materials and supply chains, this matters because solar production depends on stable access to glass, semiconductor materials, metals, chemicals, laminates and high-quality manufacturing equipment. Policy uncertainty can therefore influence not only module sales, but upstream material demand and factory utilisation.

First Solar’s maintained guidance shows confidence in demand. But the company’s selective booking strategy also shows that solar manufacturing is now as much about policy positioning as production capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Solar’s quarter shows that US solar manufacturing is being pulled forward by demand, tax credits and reshoring policy. The strategic risk is that trade uncertainty may keep global capacity underused even while domestic factories run near full utilisation.

Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements aim to unlock PGM by-product value

Sibanye-Stillwater

The Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements will reshape chrome by-product economics at South African PGM operations. The chrome management agreements, effective 1 November, align Sibanye-Stillwater with Glencore-Merafe to maximise chrome recovery from existing plants. Together, the partners will target higher throughput, better recoveries and lower operating costs across chrome recovery plants tied to PGM processing.

These Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements also accelerate contracted chrome delivery timelines by roughly 20 years. As a result, Sibanye-Stillwater can monetise chrome streams sooner and stabilise cash flow during a period of weak PGM prices. Meanwhile, Glencore-Merafe strengthens its feed base for ferro-chrome production, leveraging its established marketing and processing platform.

Chrome recovery plants move to centre stage

Chrome recovery plants sit at the core of the Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements. The partners will prioritise the Marikana chrome recovery plant, where higher feed and improved recoveries should materially lift output. Other Sibanye-Stillwater CRPs will also gain value-enhancing provisions, ensuring a portfolio-wide uplift rather than a single-site optimisation.

Glencore will apply its processing expertise to optimise chrome production throughout Sibanye-Stillwater’s operations. Therefore, the agreements should reduce unit costs and improve overall plant efficiency. In addition, Glencore’s growing operational control over most CRPs will streamline decision-making and shorten response times to market signals.

Chrome by-products support South African PGM mine life

The Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements aim to support brownfield PGM projects that currently face price pressure. Low PGM prices and relatively stronger chrome ore prices have already pushed South African PGM producers to rely more on chrome by-products. As a result, improved chrome economics can directly influence mine viability and capital allocation decisions.

Sibanye-Stillwater expects the transaction to underpin the economics of its South African PGM operations. Higher-margin chrome output can offset weaker PGM revenue and stabilise earnings across the cycle. Meanwhile, Glencore-Merafe secures long-term access to chrome units, reinforcing its ferro-chrome position in a structurally constrained energy and logistics environment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

These agreements highlight how by-products like chrome can become strategic lifelines for PGM producers in a low-price environment. If execution delivers the promised 20-year acceleration of deliveries, Sibanye-Stillwater could gain a meaningful buffer for future brownfield investments. For Glencore-Merafe, tighter integration with upstream CRPs strengthens control over feedstock in a market where cost and reliability increasingly trump volume growth.

QMB Nickel Licence Review Signals Tougher Indonesia Nickel Oversight

QMB Nickel Indonesia

QMB nickel licence risk is rising after a landslide damaged a tailings facility at Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park. The Indonesian government is reviewing QMB New Energy Materials’ environmental permit, raising new uncertainty around nickel supply from one of the world’s most important battery materials hubs.

The review follows a landslide at IMIP in Sulawesi on 18 February that damaged heavy equipment and reportedly buried an operator. A final decision has not been made, but the case shows that Jakarta is applying stronger scrutiny to environmental and safety performance across the nickel industry.

QMB nickel licence pressure matters because the company has 150,000 t/yr of nickel capacity in mixed hydroxide precipitate. MHP is a key intermediate for battery supply chains, and any production disruption in Indonesia can quickly affect buyers across China, Korea, Japan, and the global electric vehicle sector.

Tailings Risk Adds Pressure to Indonesia’s MHP Supply Chain

QMB’s operations have not been fully suspended, but output has softened as site conditions continue to evolve. The only clearly unaffected portion appears to be QMB’s ESG-linked joint project with Merdeka Battery Materials, which is designed for around 40,000 t/yr and uses independent tailings infrastructure.

The incident is significant because QMB has already faced tailings-related disruption. A landslide at its tailings dam in March 2025 forced a 45-day shutdown of MHP production. The company restarted operations in May and returned to designed capacity in July.

This repeated disruption highlights a wider risk in Indonesia’s fast-growing nickel sector. Rapid capacity expansion has created major supply growth, but it has also increased pressure on waste management, tailings systems, environmental controls, and operating discipline. For battery makers, the issue is not only nickel volume, but also the reliability and ESG quality of that volume.

RKAB Quotas Tighten the Nickel Operating Environment

Indonesia is also tightening nickel supply through its RKAB production quota system. Government-approved ore quotas for 2026 are expected at around 260mn-270mn t, far below the roughly 379mn t mined in 2025. That signals a structural reduction in ore availability and a more controlled operating environment.

RKAB approvals are increasingly tied to ESG performance, which raises compliance risk for miners and processors. Companies with stronger environmental systems may gain more predictable access to ore and permits, while weaker operators could face delays, output cuts, or licence reviews.

The QMB nickel licence review therefore fits a broader policy shift. Jakarta appears to be reducing grey areas in mining regulation and linking production rights more directly to safety, environmental compliance, and operational accountability. This could support a more sustainable nickel sector, but it may also create near-term supply uncertainty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel market is moving from aggressive expansion toward stricter control. The winners will be producers that can prove safe tailings management, stable operations, and ESG compliance while still delivering battery-grade nickel at scale.

Elkem Launches Review of Silicones Division to Navigate Market Challenges

Elkem

Elkem, a Norwegian ferro-alloy and silicon producer, has initiated a review of its silicones division in response to overcapacities in China and weak consumer markets. The company’s goal is to streamline operations and reallocate capital to its silicon products and carbon solutions divisions. As a fully integrated player in the silicones industry, Elkem handles everything from silicon metal production to downstream silicone specialties. However, the company faces a tough operating environment due to global oversupply, particularly in China.

Elkem's Investment in Expansion and Recovery in 2024

To address these challenges, Elkem has invested heavily in expanding its production capabilities. In 2024, the company allocated 4.4 billion Norwegian kroner ($390 million) to enhance its Chinese and French operations, boosting overall capacity by 140,000 tons per year. The improvements in China were completed in May, while the French project was scheduled for completion by the end of the year. Despite the market difficulties, Elkem’s silicones division reported a significant recovery, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of NKr145 million for the January-September period in 2024. This marked a major improvement from a loss of NKr672 million in 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and the ramp-up of new capacity.

Strategic Review with Expert Advice

To ensure the company’s continued success in this challenging environment, Elkem has appointed Norwegian bank ABG Sundal Collier to assist with the review. While the timeline for the review is not yet clear, the company is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on February 12. This review underscores Elkem’s commitment to maintaining competitiveness in the silicones sector and ensuring capital is deployed effectively across its divisions.

EGA Aluminum Plant Investment of $4 Billion Transforms US Production Landscape

EGA Aluminum Ingot

EGA aluminum plant investment reaches $4 billion for a new primary aluminum production facility in Oklahoma, targeting 2030 startup. The massive EGA aluminum plant will produce up to 600,000 metric tonnes annually, nearly doubling US aluminum production capacity as the country produced only 670,000 tonnes in 2024 according to the US Geological Survey.

Strategic Timing Leverages US Trade Protection Measures

EGA aluminum plant development benefits from favorable US trade policies including the current 25% tariff on aluminum imports. This protective measure creates significant cost advantages for domestic production compared to foreign competitors. The timing aligns perfectly with American reshoring initiatives and critical materials supply chain security priorities.

Meanwhile, EGA expects construction to commence by late 2026, pending completion of feasibility studies and long-term power supply contract negotiations. Tax credit arrangements represent another crucial component of the project's financial structure, demonstrating the importance of government incentives for large-scale industrial investments in the current economic environment.

UAE Company Expands North American Footprint

However, Emirates Global Aluminium brings substantial international expertise to the US aluminum market through its global production portfolio. The company owns primary and secondary aluminum projects worldwide, including Minnesota-based Spectro Alloys acquired through a majority stake purchase in August 2024. This existing US presence provides operational knowledge for the Oklahoma facility development.

Therefore, EGA's investment strategy demonstrates confidence in long-term US aluminum demand growth across automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. The 600,000-tonne annual capacity represents nearly 90% of current total US aluminum production, highlighting the transformative scale of this single project for domestic supply chains.

Presidential Announcement Signals Strategic Partnership

Furthermore, President Trump announced EGA's planned investment during his Abu Dhabi visit this week alongside $200 billion in other commercial agreements. This high-profile endorsement underscores the strategic importance of UAE-US economic cooperation in critical materials sectors. The announcement timing suggests coordinated efforts to strengthen bilateral trade relationships.

As a result, the Oklahoma facility positions EGA to capture growing North American aluminum demand while reducing US import dependence. The project's scale and timeline align with infrastructure modernization requirements and defense industry priorities that demand reliable domestic aluminum supplies for national security applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA's $4 billion Oklahoma investment exemplifies how international aluminum producers capitalize on US trade protection and reshoring trends to establish strategic manufacturing footholds. The project's potential to nearly double US aluminum production capacity demonstrates the scale of investment required to meaningfully impact critical materials supply chain resilience in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Uncertainty Looms Over Russian Ferro-Titanium Market Amid EU Sanctions

Ferro-Titanium (Fe-Ti)

The European ferro-titanium (FeTi) market is facing a period of uncertainty as the EU sanctions on Russian ferro-alloys are set to be fully enforced. Market participants are divided over whether the sanctions will have a lasting impact on Russian FeTi supplies or if the overhang of Russian units in Europe, coupled with low demand from steel mills, will continue to create downward pressure on prices in 2025. A key point of concern is the potential for circumvention, with fears that Russian material may be rerouted or rebranded through non-EU countries.

Legal Framework and Market Response to Sanctions

Under the sanctions, ferro-titanium imports from Russia that were contracted before 19 December 2023 and presented to customs before 20 December 2024 may still enter free circulation within the EU. However, despite the clear framework outlined in Council Regulation 833/2014, uncertainty continues to surround how the market will react once these conditions change.

"Everyone is waiting for 20 December, it seems nobody understands what will happen," commented a European producer. There is significant ambiguity as to how the market will balance the loss of Russian material, particularly in light of high inventories of Russian ferro-titanium already present in warehouses in the Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Germany. Imports in 2024 have already been lower than in previous years, but it remains unclear where the remaining stock will end up, especially as many buyers continue to avoid Russian FeTi.

Trade Dynamics and Impact on the Market

Despite sanctions, imports of Russian ferro-titanium to the EU remained significant in 2024, particularly in Estonia, Germany, and the Netherlands. In fact, Estonian imports in October 2024 reached a 10-year high of 591 tonnes, signaling that sanctions have not entirely stopped the flow of Russian material into the EU. Westbrook Resources, a UK producer, has called for increased vigilance among buyers to ensure they are not inadvertently purchasing smuggled or rerouted material, highlighting the difficulty of tracking the origin of ferro-titanium in the current market environment.

As of 20 December 2024, no fresh Russian ferro-alloys will be allowed into the EU, leading to a projected loss of 766 tonnes per month based on 2023 averages. While EU and UK producers may be able to cover this shortfall with unused capacity, the reduction in available supply is likely to increase demand for raw materials, driving up prices for scrap and raising production costs for ferro-titanium. However, overall demand from steel mills and cored wire manufacturers has been weak, due to an economic downturn and lower steel prices. This will likely temper any significant price increases, though temporary spikes may occur if first-quarter tenders prompt urgent purchases.

Circumvention Risks: Material Rerouting and Relabelling

Despite the official ban on Russian ferro-titanium imports, there are ongoing concerns about circumvention. The EU regulation explicitly prohibits releasing goods if there are grounds to suspect circumvention, but market sources argue that loopholes remain. Materials may be rerouted, relabelled, or blended through countries such as Turkey, India, China, or Kazakhstan, creating a potential grey market for Russian FeTi in Europe. Chinese imports of Russian ferro-titanium have already been on the rise, suggesting that circumvention may already be in play, though Europe has not yet seen significant volumes of these rerouted materials.

Logistics challenges, including the extra costs of rerouting and repackaging, may limit the feasibility of circumvention unless steel prices in Europe increase. Additionally, there are reports that Russian producers may shift to exporting titanium scrap, a material not covered under the EU sanctions. This could provide an alternative route for Russian producers to bypass restrictions, further complicating the market dynamics.

Conclusion

As the sanctions on Russian ferro-titanium fully come into force in December 2024, European market participants remain in a state of uncertainty, unsure of how the market will respond to the loss of Russian material and the potential for circumvention. While EU producers may absorb some of the shortfall with existing capacity, broader market conditions, including weak demand from steelmakers and rising production costs, could create a complex and volatile pricing environment.

Implats PGM Output Holds Steady as Zimbabwe Strength Offsets South African Pressure

Implats

Implats PGM output remained broadly stable in the first half of its 2026 financial year, showing how diversified production can protect group performance even when key South African mines weaken. Total group 6E production rose by just 0.8pc to 1.798mn oz, while managed operations increased by 1pc year on year. As a result, Implats PGM output held close to last year’s level despite clear pressure at several individual assets.

This stability matters because the platinum group metals market is entering a more sensitive phase. Global PGM prices have strengthened over the past six months, supported by tight mine supply, resilient demand, and stronger precious metals sentiment under geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, even near-flat production from a major producer like Implats carries significance for the wider market.

The performance also highlights a familiar regional divide. South African operations at Rustenburg and Marula both posted declines, while Zimbabwean output at Zimplats expanded strongly. Meanwhile, Impala Canada saw lower output because of planned tapering. Consequently, Implats PGM output now reflects a portfolio where growth outside core South African assets is becoming more important.

Zimbabwe PGM Growth Is Supporting Group Stability

Zimbabwe PGM growth provided the strongest positive contribution in the period. Zimplats lifted 6E production by 13pc year on year to 317,000oz, making it the clearest bright spot in the group’s first-half results. That increase helped offset weaker output from South African mines and lower volumes in Canada. As a result, Zimbabwe continues to strengthen its role inside the Implats production base.

This shift matters because South African PGM production is no longer carrying the group as comfortably as before. Rustenburg production fell by 2pc to 888,000oz, while Marula declined by 4pc to 97,000oz. These are not catastrophic drops, but they reinforce the operational pressures still facing mature South African mining assets. Therefore, Zimbabwe PGM growth is not just helpful. It is increasingly strategic.

The contrast also reflects a broader industry theme. Investors and market participants are paying closer attention to which PGM producers can hold volumes steady without relying too heavily on aging or more difficult assets. In that context, Implats PGM output looks more resilient because its growth is not coming from one region alone. Meanwhile, a more balanced geographic mix can improve flexibility if operating conditions worsen elsewhere.

Global PGM Prices Are Improving the Revenue Picture

Global PGM prices are now giving producers a more supportive revenue environment. Implats reported sales revenue of R33,250 per 6E oz sold, up 39pc year on year. The improvement came mainly from a stronger US dollar PGM basket price, although some of that benefit was offset by the appreciation of the South African rand. Consequently, earnings leverage is improving even when production growth remains limited.

That revenue uplift is important because PGM producers have spent several years operating under uneven price conditions and cost pressure. When output growth is limited, stronger basket prices become even more valuable. Therefore, the latest pricing backdrop may matter more for profitability than the near-flat production number alone.

The next question is whether price support can last. Tight mine supply and steady demand are constructive, but PGM markets are still highly sensitive to macro conditions, auto-sector demand, and investor sentiment toward precious metals. As a result, Implats enters the second half with a more favorable price environment, but not without risk. Even so, the combination of steady Implats PGM output and higher realized prices puts the group in a firmer position than the headline production number might suggest.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Implats did not deliver dramatic production growth, but that may not be the most important part of this result. What matters more is that the company held volumes steady while price conditions improved and Zimbabwe delivered real support. In the current PGM market, stable output with stronger basket pricing can be more valuable than chasing marginal volume growth.

Vale to Resume Nickel and Copper Operations Following Agreement

Brazilian mining giant Vale has secured agreements with Brazilian authorities to restart operations at its copper Sossego and nickel Onca Puma mines.

Vale announced today that it has come to terms with the General Attorney's office and the state environment secretariat of northern Para state. These agreements will allow the company to restore the operating licenses for both mines.

The licenses are anticipated to be reinstated within 48 hours. Following this, Vale will initiate the process to resume operations "as soon as possible," according to the company.

Earlier this year, Para state's department of environment and sustainability suspended the operating permits for Sossego and Onca Puma in February, citing Vale's non-compliance with environmental standards. The company regained its operational rights later that month, only to lose them again in April.

In 2023, Sossego's copper production rose to 66,800 tonnes, marking a 55% increase from 2022. Conversely, nickel production at Vale's Brazilian operations dropped by 28% to 17,000 tonnes, partly due to maintenance activities at Onca Puma.

Nickel Industries RKAB Quota Secures Feedstock for Indonesian HPAL Expansion

RKAB

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval gives the Australian producer a stronger feedstock position in Indonesia’s tightening nickel market. The company has secured a 2026 nickel ore quota of 14.3mn wet metric tonnes, supporting both its rotary kiln electric furnace operations and its expanding battery-grade nickel platform.

The approved quota represents a 36pc increase from the company’s 10.5mn wmt quota in 2025. Of the total, up to 6mn wmt of saprolite ore will supply Nickel Industries’ RKEF operations, while 8.3mn wmt of limonite ore will support feed requirements for the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project.

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval follows the company’s receipt of an environmental permit from Indonesia’s environment ministry. The AMDAL permit is valid for five years and could support a further quota increase to around 19mn wmt in 2026, giving the company room to apply for additional feedstock later this year.

ENC HPAL Project Raises Nickel Industries’ Battery Materials Exposure

The ENC HPAL project is central to Nickel Industries’ shift beyond ferronickel and nickel pig iron-linked operations. The project is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter and is designed to produce 72,000 t/yr of nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate, and nickel cathode.

This matters because limonite ore availability is becoming increasingly strategic in Indonesia. HPAL plants require consistent limonite feed to produce MHP and downstream nickel chemicals for batteries. Any restriction in ore quotas can directly affect project ramp-up schedules, operating rates, and customer supply planning.

Nickel Industries RKAB quota approval therefore gives the company an advantage over producers facing sharper quota cuts. It also supports the company’s ability to position ENC as part of Indonesia’s growing battery materials supply chain, where nickel intermediate production remains a major source of global supply growth.

Indonesia’s Quota Tightening Keeps Ore Supply Risk High

Indonesia’s wider nickel market remains under pressure despite Nickel Industries’ higher quota. The government plans to cut the 2026 RKAB nickel production quota to 260mn-270mn t from about 379mn t in 2025. That reduction signals a more controlled policy environment and tighter ore availability across the sector.

The impact is already visible. Weda Bay Nickel reportedly saw its RKAB cut by 70pc to 12mn wmt this year, showing that quota approvals are becoming more selective. Producers with stronger environmental approvals and clearer downstream integration may be better positioned, while others face greater uncertainty.

Nickel Industries also experienced the operational risk of delayed approvals. Its nickel ore production fell 77pc year on year to 1.67mn wmt in October-December 2025 because of downtime linked to RKAB delays. The company has since resumed operations at Hengjaya and expects mine sales to recover, but the episode shows how regulatory timing can quickly affect Indonesian nickel output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s nickel market is entering a more disciplined phase where permits, ESG compliance, and quota access matter as much as installed capacity. Nickel Industries’ approval is positive, but the wider RKAB tightening means ore security will remain one of the biggest risks for nickel and battery materials supply.

Chipmakers Face Slower Automotive Demand in Q1 2025

Wolfspeed

Semiconductor Firms Anticipate Declining Auto Sales, With EV Growth Concentrated in China

Semiconductor companies like STMicroelectronics, Wolfspeed, and NXP are bracing for slower demand growth from the automotive sector in the first quarter of 2025. This reflects a broader decline in vehicle production outside of China, where the electric vehicle (EV) market continues to outpace the rest of the world.

Declining Automotive Demand and Growing EV Shift in China

NXP, based in the Netherlands, reported a 4% drop in its automotive revenue for 2024. This decline was attributed to "inventory digestion at western tier 1 customers" amid an uncertain automotive demand environment. The company expects further declines in automotive revenue for the first quarter of 2025. However, NXP’s revenue from China grew by 4%, highlighting an increase in semiconductor content in vehicles as Chinese automakers embrace electrification and software-defined architectures.

NXP's strategy for China, which it calls "China for China," involves producing devices at its Tianjin plant for sale to the Chinese market. According to NXP president and CEO Kurt Sievers, the growth is natural and structurally ongoing, especially in China where 50% of cars sold in the second half of 2024 were electric or hybrid. This rapid transition to EVs in China is fueling an above-average increase in the semiconductor content of vehicles.

STMicroelectronics, based in Switzerland, faces similar challenges and is prioritizing the transition from 150mm wafers to 200mm wafers, driven by demand for silicon carbide (SiC) semiconductors. SiC devices are crucial for the automotive sector, particularly for EVs. The company plans to start 200mm SiC semiconductor wafer production at its Shenzhen plant in the first half of 2026. STMicro reported that 2024 was one of the worst years in decades, with weaker demand in both the automotive and industrial sectors and a higher level of inventories.

In response to growing demand, STMicro is building a new facility in Catania, Italy, to supply western markets. Silicon carbide manufacturers are making the transition to 200mm to produce more devices per wafer, a move driven by increasing demand from the automotive sector. However, the industrial and energy (I&E) sector continues to show low semiconductor demand, forcing companies like STMicro to focus more on automotive sales.

Wolfspeed's Shift to Automotive and Growing Market Opportunities

Wolfspeed, a US-based company that has pivoted to focus on SiC wafers and devices, has seen its product mix shift from industrial and energy (I&E) applications to automotive. Wolfspeed is shifting production from its 150mm plant in Durham, North Carolina, to its new 200mm plant in Mohawk Valley, New York. The company expects its revenue split to shift to 70% automotive and 30% I&E as the transition progresses. Despite the shift, Wolfspeed acknowledges the slower-than-expected adoption of EVs, which has contributed to a weaker market environment for EV semiconductors.

Despite these challenges, Wolfspeed is well-positioned as a first mover in the 200mm transition and expects its automotive revenues to grow through a broad customer base. SiC demand from I&E applications is beginning to show signs of recovery, but visibility into the coming quarters remains uncertain.

The automotive sector continues to be a primary focus for semiconductor firms as demand from the industrial and energy sectors remains weak. With the increasing push for electrification, semiconductor companies are recalibrating their strategies, focusing on innovations like SiC wafer production and ramping up investments in manufacturing capacity to meet growing automotive demand.

Eurozone Manufacturing Remains in Contraction as Global Demand Slows

Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB)

The eurozone manufacturing sector continues to struggle, marking its 28th consecutive month of contraction in October 2024. According to the latest data from Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), the region's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, was 46.0 in October, slightly up from 45.0 in September. A PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction, and this prolonged downturn represents the longest period of sustained decline in the sector since at least 1997.

Declining Production and Weak Orders

Production volumes in the eurozone fell for the 19th consecutive month, as new factory orders also declined. Companies continued to draw raw materials from existing inventories, a hangover from the stockpiling practices that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. HCOB's chief economist, Cyrus de la Rubia, explained that businesses had purchased and stored materials and intermediate goods in unprecedented volumes during 2021 and 2022. However, with sluggish global demand and no immediate need to restock, companies have now become more cautious in their purchasing strategies.

This shift in behavior reflects the broader deflationary cycle currently gripping the eurozone’s manufacturing industry. The lack of fresh demand is exacerbating the competition among manufacturers, putting downward pressure on prices and profit margins. With no immediate catalyst to drive recovery, the manufacturing sector remains stuck in a challenging environment, hindered by a global slowdown and weak consumer spending.

Global Trends Affecting Manufacturing

In addition to the eurozone’s struggles, the UK manufacturing sector also slipped back into contraction in October, marking the first decline in six months. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the UK fell to 49.9, down from 51.5 in September. This decline in production growth is attributed to a "wait-and-see" approach by businesses ahead of the government's first budget under the new administration. While production had been higher for six consecutive months, new factory orders in the UK dropped for the first time since April 2024. Meanwhile, input cost inflation fell to a 10-month low, indicating a reduction in pressure on the manufacturing sector's operational costs.

Conclusion

The ongoing contraction of the eurozone manufacturing sector reflects a broader trend of weakened global demand, inventory overhangs, and heightened competition, all contributing to a deflationary environment. With no clear signs of recovery in the immediate future, manufacturers are facing an extended period of uncertainty. Businesses will need to adapt to changing conditions, including potential shifts in global supply chains and demand patterns, if they hope to navigate this prolonged downturn.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

Constellium’s 2024 Earnings Slide Amid Supply Chain Disruptions and Weaker Demand

Constellium’s

Extreme Weather and Market Headwinds Pressure Aluminium Shipments and Margins

Divisional Profits Drop Sharply as Floods and Scrap Spreads Bite

Constellium, the France-based aluminium producer, reported a 12.6% drop in full-year EBITDA to $623 million in 2024, driven by a series of operational setbacks and softening market demand. Revenue fell 6% to $7.3 billion, as natural disasters and tightening scrap spreads cut into output and profitability.

Weather Events and Logistics Challenges Disrupt Output

Flooding in Switzerland during the second quarter and extreme winter conditions in Muscle Shoals, Alabama, created major obstacles for Constellium’s supply chain. As a result, total aluminium shipments declined 4% to 1.4 million tonnes last year, with a further 2% drop in the fourth quarter. Q4 EBITDA plummeted 26.9% to $125 million, while quarterly revenue slipped 1% to $1.72 billion.

All Major Divisions Report Profit Declines

The aerospace and transportation division saw EBITDA fall 19% to $285 million in 2024, with Q4 profits down 33%. Shipments decreased 4% year-on-year, with a sharper 7% fall in Q4. The packaging and automotive rolled products division faced a 21% annual EBITDA drop to $242 million, with shipments holding steady but Q4 profits off by 34%. The automotive structures and industry division was hit hardest, as EBITDA tumbled 43% to $74 million for the year and plunged 83% in Q4.

CEO Jean-Marc Germain highlighted the challenging environment, citing not only the weather events but also weak demand and tighter North American scrap spreads. Despite these difficulties, Constellium expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA to range from $600-630 million, reflecting cautious optimism for improved conditions.