JPMorgan critical minerals initiative puts security at the heart of Wall Street capital

JPMorgan

JPMorgan critical minerals initiative is putting national security at the center of a $1.5 trillion capital plan. The bank will deploy up to $10bn in equity and venture capital and scale lending to sectors tied to US security and resilience. As a result, the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative directly targets weak links in supply chains, energy systems and strategic technologies.

Critical minerals at the core of JPMorgan’s security push

The JPMorgan critical minerals initiative reflects growing concern over US dependence on foreign supplies. Jamie Dimon warned that the US has become too reliant on “unreliable sources” for critical minerals, products and manufacturing. This warning gained urgency after China tightened export controls on rare earth output, processing and foreign trade. Therefore, JPMorgan is positioning itself as a financial anchor for projects that can reduce this exposure.

The bank plans to steer up to $1.5 trillion over ten years into four priority sectors. These include supply chain and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies. Within this framework, the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative will back mining, processing and magnet manufacturing assets that strengthen US control over rare earths and battery metals.

Financing the new critical minerals and magnet ecosystem

JPMorgan is already embedded in flagship US rare earth projects. It advised the US defense department on acquiring a 15pc stake in MP Materials, securing an NdPr offtake agreement with a price floor. It is also financing MP Materials’ second magnet plant, the “10X Facility” in Texas, which aims to close a key gap between ore and finished magnets. These deals show how the JPMorgan critical minerals initiative links public capital, industrial policy and private finance.

Meanwhile, the US Defense Logistics Agency is expanding its strategic stockpile of critical minerals. The DLA has issued tenders and RFIs for minerals where desired stockpile volumes exceed current US production and imports. As a result, projects that can deliver domestic antimony, cobalt, bismuth or high-purity aluminum gain a clearer demand signal. JPMorgan’s capital can then accelerate these projects from concept to bankable reality, tightening the loop between mining, processing and defense needs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This initiative confirms that critical minerals are no longer a niche ESG theme but a core asset class for security-driven capital. By backing magnets, processing and stockpiles, JPMorgan is effectively underwriting a new industrial architecture around metals. The real question now is whether other global lenders follow, or whether US projects gain a lasting funding advantage in the next decade of resource competition.

LME copper prices to ease to $9,100/t in 3Q: JPMorgan

JPMorgan

LME copper prices to ease to $9,100/t in 3Q, says JPMorgan. The bank cites a US destocking cycle and softer China demand. As a result, near-term pricing faces headwinds despite tightness earlier this year.

Why LME copper prices to ease to $9,100/t in 3Q

JPMorgan expects LME copper prices to ease to $9,100/t in 3Q. The bank says US buyers will unwind first-half inventory hoarding. Meanwhile, confirmation of 50% US tariffs reduces front-loading incentives. Copper should divert from the US and replenish LME stocks. Therefore, spreads may loosen and pressure prices.

Risks that could shift the price path

JPMorgan outlines a mild recovery after 3Q. It sees $9,350/t in 4Q, $9,400/t in 1Q, and $9,500/t in 2Q. However, several factors could skew outcomes. A copper scrap export ban or US substitution could move demand. A delay or change to US tariffs could alter flows. Geopolitical shocks in the Middle East remain another wildcard.

US dynamics drove the first-half dislocation. Uncertainty on tariffs sent disproportionate refined imports to the US. May US copper imports rose 129% year on year. China also pulled strongly, with apparent demand up about 10% through May. But JPMorgan sees China softening in 3Q. Housing weakness, slower white goods, and fewer solar installs weigh on consumption.

Arbitrage will likely widen in the coming months. JPMorgan expects CME prices to gain against LME. The LME-CME arb could move toward a 50% premium. This shift reflects tighter US premia during destocking and softer LME benchmarks. Market participants should watch inventories and spreads closely.

The Metalnomist Commentary

For producers, 3Q looks tactically weak but not structurally bearish. Destocking and softer China mask longer-term supply risks. Watch LME inventories, Chinese construction signals, and US tariff execution to gauge the next leg.

JPMorgan Cuts Base Metal Price Forecasts Amid Recession Fears

JPMorgan Metal Price Report Image

Focus Keyphrase: Base Metal Price Forecasts

JPMorgan has sharply lowered its base metal price forecasts, citing rising recession risks tied to Donald Trump's trade policies. The bank now anticipates up to a 20% drop in average prices through 2026 due to tariff-driven reductions in global demand growth, particularly for copper and aluminium.

Forecasts for copper and aluminium demand fell by 1%, flipping projected deficits into surpluses of 170,000t and 200,000t, respectively. Nickel and zinc markets are also now expected to post significant surpluses of 250,000t and 130,000t in 2025.

Copper and Aluminium Markets See Major Revisions

Copper is now forecast to average $8,300/t in Q1, down from $9,400/t, and $9,000/t in Q4, down from $10,400/t. Aluminium prices are similarly revised to $2,200/t in Q1, with only modest gains expected later in the year.

Despite stimulus measures stabilizing China’s demand outlook, JPMorgan expects global oversupply. Lower economic activity, particularly in developed economies, will weigh on construction and industrial consumption.

Nickel and Zinc Also Face Downward Pressure

Nickel and zinc price forecasts were cut by 12% for the rest of 2025. For 2026, copper prices are now expected to average $9,375/t (down 15%) and aluminium at $2,463/t (down 14%). Nickel and zinc follow suit with price declines of 10% and 8%, respectively.

JPMorgan emphasized that downside risks dominate the outlook, as further trade war escalation could trigger deeper recessions. This may push prices below cost curves and pressure marginal producers globally.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JPMorgan’s revised forecasts reflect growing uncertainty in global industrial demand. As trade tensions escalate, metals markets could remain under pressure unless macroeconomic momentum improves.

Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project secures $255mn in strategic funding

Perpetua Resources

Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project has secured $255mn in new strategic equity from Agnico Eagle and JPMorgan. The fresh capital will fund project development, continued exploration, working capital and general corporate needs. As a result, Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project strengthens its path toward construction while positioning itself as a key US critical minerals supplier. The raise also highlights growing investor appetite for assets linked to national and economic security.

Perpetua’s financing package combines mining and financial sector firepower. Agnico Eagle will invest $180mn for about 7.7mn shares, taking a 6.6pc stake in Perpetua. Meanwhile, JPMorgan will acquire roughly 3.2mn shares for $75mn, equal to a 2.7pc holding. Both invested at $23.30/share, underscoring a shared valuation view on the Stibnite Gold antimony project.

The deal also includes significant upside optionality for both investors. Agnico Eagle and JPMorgan receive warrants to purchase up to 2.9mn and 1.2mn additional shares, respectively. They can exercise at $31.46/share after one year, and up to $38.45/share three years after closing. As a result, both backers gain leveraged exposure to future value creation at the Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project. The placements are expected to close on Tuesday, further de-risking Perpetua’s capital structure.

Perpetua has already broken ground at Stibnite Gold after meeting US Forest Service financial assurance conditions. Conditional approval from the USFS in September allowed the company to start early construction work. The project hosts an estimated 148mn lbs of antimony reserves, alongside gold, making it one of the most strategically important antimony developments in North America. Prior to this equity raise, Perpetua secured several hundred million dollars in 2025, including $425mn in June and another $49mn in July. The company also expects up to $2bn in debt financing from the US Export-Import Bank, which would anchor a full project funding package.

Strategic investors reinforce US critical minerals security

The new capital confirms that critical minerals are now squarely in mainstream investment focus. Agnico Eagle, a major gold producer, gains exposure to a large gold-antimony system with embedded optionality on US security-linked demand. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is deploying capital through its new “Security and Resiliency Initiative,” which targets up to $10bn in equity for sectors vital to US national and economic security. This explains why the Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project sits at the intersection of mining, defense and industrial policy.

For the US, Stibnite’s antimony output could become a strategic pillar of supply diversification. Antimony is essential for defense, flame retardants and various advanced materials, yet supply is heavily concentrated abroad. Therefore, a domestically anchored Perpetua Stibnite Gold antimony project directly supports resilience goals. However, execution risks remain, including permitting finalisation, construction timelines, capital cost control and future antimony price volatility. Even so, the depth and quality of recent funding suggest strong confidence in the project’s long-term economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Perpetua’s latest raise confirms that capital is increasingly flowing toward critical minerals projects with clear policy tailwinds. The alignment of a top-tier gold miner, a global bank and US export credit support gives Stibnite unusual strategic weight in the antimony chain. If delivered on time and budget, the project could become a benchmark for how Washington-aligned finance rebuilds Western control over niche but vital metals.