South32 aluminium output rises as alumina holds steady

South32

South32 aluminium output rose in FY2024–25 as alumina held steady. South32 aluminium output reached 1.2mn t, up 6.4% year over year. South32 aluminium output guidance for 2025–26 sits at a cautious 880,000 t. Meanwhile, alumina guidance is 5.11mn t on an equity basis.

Aluminium beats targets, but Mozal risk clouds outlook

Output exceeded plans at Brazil and Mozambique smelters. Brazil produced 138,000 t, up 33%, as the site ramped. Mozal delivered 355,000 t, up 13%, despite persistent grid uncertainty. However, Hillside slipped to 718,000 t after power cuts. Management warns Mozal could shut by March 2026 without a power deal.

Alumina stable amid Worsley constraints and Brazil gains

Group alumina production held at 5.07mn t, just shy of target. Brazil Alumina rose 4.2% to 1.34mn t despite wet weather. The 2025–26 target is 1.36mn t, matching current run-rate. Worsley produced 3.73mn t, down 1%, on bauxite mining limits. Regulators cleared a mine life extension to 2036 in February. Even so, higher Worsley output arrives in 2026–27 after expansion works. The company plans 3.8mn t at Worsley in 2025–26.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s aluminium story is a tale of strength and fragility. Power security will decide Mozal’s future and shape guidance certainty. Alumina resilience helps, but Worsley’s uplift hinges on bauxite and execution.