Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement closes high-stakes nickel dispute

Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement ends a three-year legal battle over major nickel and copper assets in Brazil. The $215mn payment closes Sibanye Stillwater’s failed acquisition of the Santa Rita nickel and Serrote copper mines. As a result, the case now stands as a key precedent for mining M&A risk and contract enforcement.

Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement follows the company’s decision to terminate a $1bn deal signed in 2021. The agreement covered Appian’s Atlantic Nickel and MVV businesses, which own Santa Rita and Serrote. However, Sibanye walked away in January 2022, citing a “geotechnical event” at Santa Rita as a material adverse effect. The UK High Court later ruled that the incident did not meet this threshold, leaving Sibanye liable for damages.

Santa Rita is one of the world’s largest open-pit nickel sulphide operations with a 6.5mn t/yr plant. Serrote is a sizeable copper-gold mine designed to produce about 20,000 t/yr of copper concentrate from a 4.1mn t/yr plant. Together, these assets would have anchored Sibanye’s diversification into battery metals. Instead, the Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement now replaces the growth story with a sizeable cash cost and reputational hit.

Legal defeat underscores limits of “material adverse effect” claims

The dispute highlights how courts interpret material adverse effect clauses in mining deals. Judges expect buyers to understand normal operational and geological risks before signing. Therefore, routine geotechnical issues rarely justify tearing up a $1bn transaction. The High Court found that Santa Rita’s event did not fundamentally damage the mine’s economics or long-term viability.

As a result, the ruling signals tougher standards for future mining M&A terminations. Buyers can no longer rely on moderate technical issues or short-term volatility to escape deals. Instead, they must show truly exceptional damage to asset value or performance. This outcome will likely push acquirers to tighten due diligence, refine risk pricing and draft narrower escape clauses. It also reinforces sellers’ confidence when defending contracts in court.

For Sibanye, the settlement removes a major legal overhang and ongoing litigation expense. However, it also crystallises a $215mn cash outflow with no asset in return. Investors will scrutinise how this affects balance-sheet flexibility, especially as the group still targets exposure to battery metals. Appian, meanwhile, secures compensation and can refocus on optimising Santa Rita and Serrote or preparing new exit options.

Strategic lessons for mining and battery metals M&A

The Sibanye Appian Brazil mines settlement sends a clear signal across the battery metals value chain. Strategic diversification into nickel and copper remains vital for miners exposed to PGMs or coal. However, failed execution now carries higher legal and financial risk. Mining companies must match bold decarbonisation narratives with disciplined transaction structures and contingency planning.

For prospective buyers of nickel and copper assets, the case highlights three core lessons. First, conduct deeper technical due diligence around pit stability, tailings and resource models. Second, align contract language with realistic risk scenarios, not best-case assumptions. Third, maintain transparent communication with counterparties when operational issues emerge. These steps can reduce the odds of costly courtroom battles.

Downstream, stainless and battery supply-chain players will watch how Santa Rita and Serrote evolve under Appian’s control. Any future sale process will likely embed stricter protections for both buyer and seller. Over time, this precedent may raise transaction costs but also improve deal quality in the global energy-transition metals market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This settlement underlines how aggressively courts now police “material adverse effect” claims in mining M&A. Buyers that over-promise on battery metals diversification, then attempt to reverse course, face growing legal and reputational consequences. The next phase of nickel and copper deal-making will favor disciplined acquirers who price risk accurately and honour their contracts.

JSW to Develop Copper Mines and Processing Plant in Jharkhand

JSW

Indian Steelmaker Expands Into Copper Production to Meet Growing Demand

Indian steelmaker JSW has secured a significant contract with state-owned Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) to develop two copper mines in Jharkhand, India. The company will invest $26 billion in the project, which includes the development of the mines and the construction of a copper processing plant. These mines will have a total output capacity of 3 million tons per year of copper ore.

JSW will oversee the development and operation of the mines, while HCL will provide technical support and receive a share of the revenue. The mines are expected to become partially operational by the second half of the 2026-27 fiscal year, with plans for full-scale operations following shortly after.

Boosting India's Copper Production to Meet EV and Renewable Energy Demands

This venture marks JSW's foray into non-ferrous metals, with a focus on copper, a key material for sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and construction. The move aligns with India's goal of becoming self-sufficient in copper production, reducing its dependence on imports. Currently, the country imports a significant portion of its copper concentrate, while domestic production only meets a fraction of the demand.

By investing in domestic copper production, JSW’s efforts could bolster India’s industrial growth, particularly in green technologies and infrastructure development. This development could make India a more competitive player in the global copper market, while also fostering economic growth in the region.

Ivanhoe Mines Achieves Record Copper Output at Kamoa-Kakula in October

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a significant milestone in copper production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula mine reached a new record by producing 41,800 tons of copper concentrates, surpassing the previous high of 40,347 tons set in August. This marks an important achievement in the company’s ongoing expansion efforts and positions Kamoa-Kakula as one of the top global copper producers.

Strong Performance from Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 1, 2, and 3 Concentrators

The combined output from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators hit a new high in October, with an impressive peak daily output of 1,720 tons of copper in concentrate on October 12. This daily output is equivalent to an annualized production rate of approximately 580,000 tons of copper. The steady performance of these concentrators underscores the operational success of the project, which continues to deliver strong results despite global economic uncertainties.

The Phase 3 concentrator, which commenced commercial production in August 2024, played a pivotal role in this achievement. With the addition of Phase 3, the mine’s copper production capacity increased from 450,000 tons per year (t/yr) to 600,000 t/yr. In October alone, the Phase 3 concentrator processed 448,478 tons of ore, contributing an additional 10,533 tons of copper-in-concentrate, representing a 42% increase in output compared to September.

Expanding Capacity for Future Growth

By October 31, Kamoa-Kakula’s combined copper production for the year totaled approximately 345,042 tons, further solidifying the project's standing as one of the most productive copper mines globally. Ivanhoe Mines is also making significant strides toward expanding the operation. The company is nearing the completion of the engineering stage for Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 4 expansion, which promises to further boost copper production capacity and establish the mine as a leading supplier in the global copper market.

Conclusion

Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula copper complex continues to achieve impressive milestones, driving growth in both production and capacity. With the successful ramp-up of Phase 3 and the ongoing preparations for Phase 4, the DRC-based mine is positioned for further success in the global copper industry. This achievement not only highlights the company’s operational excellence but also underscores the strategic importance of Kamoa-Kakula in meeting the growing global demand for copper, especially in industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.

Chile Copper Production Falls as Mature Mines and Acid Costs Pressure Supply

Chile Copper minnig

Chile copper production fell sharply in the first quarter, deepening concerns over near-term supply from the world’s largest copper-producing country. Output declined by 5.8% year on year to 1.217mn t.

Chile copper production weakness was driven by lower output from mature mines, softer grades and weaker refined cathode production. March was especially weak, with national copper output down 9% from a year earlier.

Chile copper production matters because the global copper market is already facing tight concentrate availability, fragile refined flows and stronger demand from grids, electrification and data centres.

The decline reinforces a core market concern. Higher copper prices are not quickly translating into higher mine output, especially in countries where ageing assets and delayed projects continue to limit supply response.

Concentrate Output Falls as Major Mines Underperform

Chile’s copper concentrate output fell by 6% year on year to around 947,000t in the first quarter. Concentrates accounted for almost 78% of the country’s total mine output.

The weakness was visible across both state-owned and private producers. Escondida remained Chile’s largest copper mine with 311,600t in the quarter, followed by Codelco at 299,600t, including stakes in El Abra and Anglo American Sur.

Codelco’s own divisions produced around 271,600t. The company is targeting 1.344mn t this year after producing about 1.33mn t in 2025.

The first-quarter result keeps pressure on Codelco to stabilise output after several years of structural underperformance. Ageing mines, delayed projects and higher operating costs remain key constraints.

March data showed broad weakness at the largest mines. Codelco output fell by nearly 10% year on year to 110,900t, while Escondida declined by almost 16% to 101,600t.

Collahuasi, jointly owned by Glencore and Anglo American, produced 31,400t in March, down 10.8% from a year earlier. Its first-quarter output totalled 88,200t.

Other major producers also faced pressure. Los Pelambres produced 69,600t, Anglo American Sur 58,200t, Quebrada Blanca 55,500t and Spence 44,600t during the quarter.

Antofagasta produced 143,000t of copper in the quarter. The company cited lower processing rates and weaker grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela concentrates.

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca was one of the more stable performers. The mine produced 55,500t despite planned maintenance and a shorter February, supported by stronger March throughput and recoveries.

SX-EW Cathode Weakness Exposes Chile to Acid and Fuel Costs

Chile’s refined SX-EW cathode output reached 269,300t in the first quarter. January output increased, but February and March both fell from a year earlier.

Refined electrolytic cathode output was weaker at 107,000t. March production fell by 38.7% year on year, pulling total refined cathode output to about 376,300t.

This matters because Chile’s oxide and SX-EW operations are increasingly exposed to sulphuric acid availability and pricing. Acid is a reagent cost for leaching operations.

Smelters can benefit from higher sulphuric acid prices when they sell acid as a by-product. SX-EW producers face the opposite exposure, as higher acid costs directly pressure operating margins.

Higher diesel prices are adding to the problem. Codelco said Middle East-related cost increases lifted its cash cost by at least 10¢/lb.

Antucoya also showed the cost pressure. Output weakened, while costs rose by 23% year on year to $3.03/lb on higher sulphuric acid and diesel prices.

Chile’s investment pipeline remains significant but long-dated. Freeport-McMoRan has started environmental permitting for a $7.5bn expansion of El Abra.

The project aims to lift production to around 300,000 t/yr from 91,400t in 2025. But it requires a new concentrator and desalination plant and is not expected to start until the next decade.

That timing is critical for the market. Chile has projects, but they will not solve immediate supply tightness.

The first-quarter decline therefore strengthens copper’s structural bull case. Global demand is rising, while Chile’s mature mine base is struggling to deliver stable growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper problem is no longer only grade decline; it is now a combined issue of mine maturity, acid exposure, fuel costs and delayed expansion. The market should treat Chilean supply recovery as a slow process, not a quick response to record copper prices.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

54% of the World's Copper Mines Face 'Drought Shock'

Anglo American Copper Mining

More than half of the world’s copper mines are exposed to 'drought risk'. Other major metal raw materials such as iron ore, lithium, and cobalt are also facing potential supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.

Metalnomist stated in a report published on the 24th, “Climate anomalies caused by global warming will adversely affect the supply and demand of international raw materials.” The center cited data from the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), predicting that by 2050, 54% of the world's copper mines and 74% of lithium and cobalt mines will experience reduced production due to drought. Water is essential for crushing mineral ores, separating impurities, and cleaning equipment. McKinsey highlighted that “copper, gold, iron ore, and zinc are particularly vulnerable to drought, as 30-50% of these mines are located in areas with insufficient water resources.”

Chile, which produced over 30% of the world's copper in 2020, is already suffering from severe drought. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco produced only 1,325,000 tons of copper last year, the lowest in 25 years, due to water shortages and other impacts.

15 Years of Water Shortage in the World’s Largest Copper Reserve: "If Mining Halts, Prices Could Quadruple"

Metalnomist warned on the 24th, “Mining items heavily dependent on production from specific countries are at risk of global supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.”

According to Metalnomist, 47% of the world's copper reserves are concentrated in three countries : Chile, Peru, and the Congo. 74% of iron ore is concentrated in China, Australia, and Brazil, while 80.8% of bauxite is concentrated in Guinea, China, and Brazil. Copper demand has recently surged due to the AI boom, raising concerns that any supply disruption could significantly impact the industry. Global infrastructure asset manager Macquarie Group predicts that the annual copper demand could increase by 2 million tons by 2030 due to the surge in AI data centers. Copper is crucial for the construction of both data centers and power grids.

Northern Antofagasta, Chile's largest copper and lithium deposit, is a prime example of a region unable to increase production due to water shortages. Reuters recently reported that local mining company Antofagasta PLC has been struggling to secure water supply as reservoirs have dried up due to a 15-year-long drought. In the first quarter of this year, Antofagasta PLC’s copper production decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Limited water resources are also causing conflicts with local communities. Antofagasta PLC and Australian mining company BHP were sued by Chile’s National Defense Commission (CDE) in 2022 for environmental pollution. The CDE claimed that mining companies extracted water volumes exceeding regulations, causing severe damage to the local ecosystem and indigenous communities.

Seawater desalination plants are being considered as a solution to these issues. However, the high investment costs and long construction periods limit their ability to solve water problems immediately.

Due to structural constraints on copper supply, it is predicted that copper prices could skyrocket in the coming years. Goldman Sachs projected that the average copper price next year would be $15,000 per ton. Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, analyzed that the global copper supply shortage could drive prices up to $40,000 per ton by 2028. Copper traded at a record high of $10,857 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 21st of last month, before falling to $9,563 on the 21st of this month.

The increasing demand for electricity for cooling due to heatwaves is also expected to raise the demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Metalnomist noted, “Europe is in a situation where it is inevitable to expand thermal power generation to meet the increasing electricity demand in summer,” and added, “In Asian countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, the demand for natural gas for power generation has increased.”

Vale Copper Production Rises as Brazilian Mines Offset Canadian Disruptions

Vale, Brazilian Mines

Vale copper production increased in the first quarter as record combined output from the Salobo and Sossego mines strengthened the Brazilian mining group’s base metals performance. The company produced 102,300t of copper in January-March, up 12.5% from a year earlier.

Vale copper production was supported mainly by stronger domestic mine performance. Sossego output rose sharply, while Salobo posted a modest increase, helping offset weaker production from the Sudbury operation in Canada.

Vale copper production growth is important because the company is positioning copper and nickel as core transition metals. Higher output from Brazilian assets improves near-term supply while supporting Vale’s longer-term strategy to expand base metals exposure.

Salobo and Sossego Drive Copper Output Higher

Sossego delivered the strongest copper growth in the quarter. Production rose by 81.3% on the year to 29,000t, supported by strong mill performance and increased ore processing ahead of planned maintenance in the second quarter.

The stronger Sossego result shows how operational timing can influence quarterly copper supply. Vale pushed processing before maintenance, allowing the mine to lift output significantly compared with the previous year.

Salobo remained Vale’s largest copper contributor. Output increased by 1% on the year to 52,800t, giving the group a stable production base in Brazil.

Together, Salobo and Sossego delivered record combined production. This helped Vale absorb weaker performance from Sudbury, where copper output fell by nearly 10% to 20,400t.

Sudbury was affected by unexpected snowstorms and unplanned maintenance at the Clarabelle pit. The maintenance specifically hit copper concentrate production, although Vale said the issue has now been resolved.

The first-quarter result highlights the importance of geographic diversification. Stronger Brazilian output allowed Vale to grow copper production even as weather and maintenance disruptions affected Canadian operations.

Nickel Output Rises Across Canada and Brazil

Vale’s nickel production also increased in the first quarter. Total output rose by 12.3% on the year to 49,300t, supported by stronger production across Canadian and Brazilian assets.

Finished nickel production using Sudbury ore rose by 11.5% to 10,600t. This increase offset the effect of unplanned maintenance at Vale’s third converting reactor.

Voisey Bay delivered a stronger result. Nickel output rose by 61.5% on the year to 10,500t, supporting the group’s Canadian nickel performance.

Thompson moved in the opposite direction. Production fell by 66.7% to 12,000t because of a pipeline blockage worsened by poor weather conditions.

In Brazil, Onca Puma output rose by 64.8% to 8,900t. Vale said the increase was driven by the strongest production to date from the mine’s second furnace.

Nickel production from external feed in Indonesia fell by 2.2% to 18,100t. This included offtake from third parties and material linked to Vale’s local subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

The mixed nickel results show that Vale’s base metals performance depends on several operating systems, including mines, furnaces, converters, external feed and weather-sensitive logistics. Still, the overall increase in nickel output strengthens Vale’s supply position in a market tied to stainless steel, batteries and high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s first-quarter results show that copper and nickel growth increasingly depends on operational reliability, not only resource size. Stronger Brazilian output gave Vale a buffer against Canadian disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of diversified base metals production.

Ivanhoe Mines Secures Copper Exploration Licences in Zambia

Ivanhoe Mines

Zambia Awards Ivanhoe Vast Copper Exploration Area

The Zambian government granted Ivanhoe Mines 7,757km² of new copper exploration licences in its northwestern province. This strategic allocation expands Ivanhoe’s footprint in the Central African Copperbelt, a region rich in copper resources. The licences align with Zambia's goal to become a top global copper producer by 2031.

Partnership Strengthens Following Initial September Agreement

Ivanhoe and Zambia’s Ministry of Mines signed an initial agreement in September to pursue copper development. The formal issuance of licences marks a significant step forward in their collaboration. This partnership reflects Zambia’s commitment to attracting foreign investment in mining and exploration.

Copper Production Key to Zambia’s Economic Ambitions

President Hakainde Hichilema reaffirmed Zambia’s aim to reach over 3 million tonnes of copper production annually by 2031. Copper is central to Zambia’s development plan and energy transition ambitions. New exploration efforts like Ivanhoe’s will be vital to meeting this production milestone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zambia’s proactive approach to awarding exploration rights reinforces its position as a rising copper powerhouse. Ivanhoe’s expansion in the Copperbelt signals growing confidence in the region’s geology and regulatory support. The move could unlock vast new reserves essential for the global energy transition.

Zambia Suspends China-Owned Copper Mines for Compliance Violations

Zambia mining

Zambia suspends China-owned copper mines after an inspection found illegal processing. Authorities halted Sino Octascene and Ken Reliable. Zambia suspends China-owned copper mines to enforce documentation and trade transparency. Officials seized stockpiles and referred managers to law enforcement. Zambia suspends China-owned copper mines to tighten monitoring nationwide.

Compliance crackdown and market implications

The ministry identified unauthorized processing over an unknown period. The government will intensify oversight of all processors. The seized ore prevents further illicit throughput. Annual capacities of 8,000t and 4,000t now sit idle. Therefore, local concentrate flows could tighten near term. However, national copper output impact should remain limited. The action signals zero tolerance for regulatory breaches.

Ownership, enforcement steps, and next milestones

Sino Metals owns both assets through a local subsidiary. Officials will verify permits and require proper documentation. Companies must meet conditions before any restart. As a result, near-term sales and cash cycles face disruption. Buyers should expect stricter chain-of-custody checks. Meanwhile, compliant operators gain a relative advantage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This enforcement boosts rule-of-law signals to investors and traders. Short-term logistics may wobble, but governance premiums can rise. Watch restart conditions, documentation timelines, and any sector-wide audits.

India Critical Minerals Auctions Expand Supply Push for Clean Energy Manufacturing

India, auction for critical minerals.jpg

India critical minerals auctions have entered a new phase as the government launched the seventh tranche of critical and strategic mineral block auctions. The Ministry of Mines is offering 19 blocks under mining lease and composite licence across several states.

The latest India critical minerals auctions cover minerals needed for clean-energy manufacturing, advanced technologies, fertilisers, and strategic industries. The move reflects New Delhi’s effort to reduce import dependence and build domestic supply chains for high-value minerals.

India critical minerals auctions have become a central tool in the country’s resource security strategy since the August 2023 amendment to the Mines and Minerals Act. That reform classified 24 minerals as critical and strategic and gave the central government authority to auction them.

Regulatory Reforms Aim to Speed Up Mineral Development

India is tightening its auction framework to improve project execution after bidding. The Mineral Auction Second Amendment Rules, 2025, are designed to streamline post-auction procedures and reduce delays between award and development.

The 2026 rules also introduce insurance surety bonds as an alternative to bank guarantees. This could ease financial pressure on bidders and support broader participation from mining companies, technology firms, and downstream industrial players.

Auction revenues will go to the respective state governments, creating a stronger link between central mineral policy and state-level resource development. This structure could help states support permitting, infrastructure, and local industrial ecosystems around critical mineral projects.

Lithium, Graphite and Rare Earths Drive Industrial Strategy

The Ministry of Mines has already launched six tranches and auctioned 46 blocks. Industry participation has strengthened as demand rises for lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, tungsten, vanadium, titanium, and other rare metals.

These minerals are becoming essential for batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, aerospace, electronics, specialty alloys, fertilisers, and defense-related applications. India’s challenge is not only discovering resources, but also building processing, refining, and manufacturing capacity around them.

The seventh tranche therefore fits into a broader industrial policy agenda. India wants to position itself as a manufacturing hub while securing the mineral inputs needed for energy transition technologies and strategic supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s auction program shows that critical mineral security is becoming a state-backed industrial race. The real test will come after auction awards, when India must convert mineral blocks into mines, processing capacity, and downstream manufacturing strength.

India's OMC Increases September Chrome Ore Base Prices

India's OMC

India's state-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) has raised the base prices of chrome ore at its September auction. The increase comes in response to rising ferro-chrome prices. OMC set the base price for 48-49.99% grade ore from its South Kaliapani mines at 19,743 rupees per tonne ($236.5/t), up from 18,386 rupees per tonne in August. This reflects the upward trend in ferro-chrome prices and the growing demand from producers seeking higher returns through exports. Domestic buyers, however, remain cautious due to high production costs and a sluggish stainless steel market.

Interestingly, OMC is not offering its 50-51.99% grade ore from its Sukrangi mines in September. However, the base price for this grade in August was approximately 20,173 rupees per tonne. The state's trading firm MSTC will manage the sale of 22,400 tonnes of 42-54% grade friable chrome ore from the South Kaliapani and Sukrangi mines on 20 September. This is a drop from the 24,800 tonnes offered at the August auction, likely due to the lower output caused by the monsoon season.

Additionally, MSTC will also offer around 1,300 tonnes of lumps, chips, and fines (30-36% grade) from the Bangur mines on behalf of OMC. Despite these price increases, India's domestic ferro-chrome prices for 60% grade remained stable at 106,000-108,000 rupees per tonne ex-works as of 19 September.

Zijin Mining Boosts Copper Production in 2024 with Strong Serbian and African Output

Zijin Mining

Zijin expands copper output with Serbian and DRC project gains

Zijin Mining increased its copper production in 2024, driven by higher output from its Serbian mines and African operations. The company produced 1.068mn tonnes of mined copper last year, up 6.1% from 2023. Notably, combined production from Serbia's Cukaru Peki and Bor mines rose to 292,900t, up from 238,900t a year earlier. Zijin aims to boost these Serbian mines to 450,000t/year, although it has not revealed a timeline.

Meanwhile, its flagship Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo began phase three production in August. This will raise copper capacity to 600,000t/year by 2025, up from 437,000t in 2024.

New mines and future capacity targets underline long-term growth

In China, Zijin plans to launch phase two of the Julong copper mine in late 2025, expanding output to 300,000–350,000t/year. Phase three will raise Julong’s capacity to 600,000t/year, though construction dates remain undisclosed. Additionally, the 76,000t/year Zhunuo copper mine in Tibet will start operating by late 2026.

Refined copper production rose 3.2% to 474,570t in 2024, while zinc and lead volumes saw mixed performance. Zijin produced 451,474t of mined zinc and lead, down 3.3%, but refined zinc output rose 11% to 371,057t.

The company also expanded molybdenum and tungsten production, though cobalt output dropped 63% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2025, Zijin targets 1.15mn t of copper, 440,000t of zinc and lead, and 40,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zijin’s 2024 performance confirms its status as a global copper powerhouse. Strategic mine expansions in Serbia, Congo, and China signal long-term ambitions to dominate global refined and mined copper supply. Its diversification into lithium and molybdenum positions the firm to ride the clean energy and battery metals boom well into 2030.

US Sovereign Fund Could Boost Critical Minerals Investment, Says Ivanhoe Chief

Ivanhoe Mines

Long-term mine value undervalued in Western models, new funding approach may unlock investment in extended-lifecycle projects.

Ivanhoe Mines founder and executive co-chairman Robert Friedland urged the creation of a US sovereign wealth fund to support the critical minerals supply chain, arguing it could encourage deeper and longer-term investment in mining. Speaking at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, Friedland said traditional net present value (NPV) models fail to reflect the true economic potential of century-long mine lifespans.

Financial Models Discourage Long-Term Mining

"NPV models make mining look poor beyond 10 years," Friedland stated. He noted that discounting future cash flows leaves "almost nothing" of value after the first decade, despite mines often running far longer.

Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals, agreed, stressing that the industry regularly underestimates asset longevity. "We statistically undervalue the upside of mines extended two to three times their original life," he said.

This short-term financial lens causes many Western mining firms to overlook long-duration, high-reward mineral projects, especially in strategic supply chains for clean energy technologies.

US Government Eyes Policy and Project Support

Efforts to fix this gap are already underway. The US Export-Import Bank’s Supply Chain Resilience Initiative now provides financing for international critical mineral projects, contingent on long-term offtake agreements with US companies.

Moreover, Laura Lochman, acting assistant secretary at the US Bureau of Energy Resources, highlighted Washington’s role in coordinating global partnerships. She cited a recent collaboration between Umicore (Belgium) and Gecamines (Democratic Republic of Congo) on a germanium project as a model for future deals.

"Our job is to connect capable players and accelerate execution," Lochman said.

Ivanhoe Mines Lowers Production Forecasts at DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi Mines

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a downward revision of its full-year production forecasts for its copper and zinc operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The updated guidance reflects ongoing challenges, particularly with the power supply, impacting output at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex and the Kipushi zinc mine.

Power Supply Issues Impact Copper and Zinc Production

For the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, the company has adjusted its 2024 copper-in-concentrate production guidance to a range of 425,000-450,000 metric tons, down from the earlier estimate of 440,000-490,000 metric tons. The revision comes amid instability in the local electrical grid and the ongoing commissioning of the site’s phase 3 concentrator, which recently began commercial operations. Despite these challenges, the mine achieved a record production of 116,313 metric tons in the third quarter, marking a 15% increase from the previous quarter. The new phase 3 concentrator added 22,099 metric tons to the quarterly output, pushing the facility's overall production capacity to 600,000 metric tons per year, up from 450,000 metric tons.

Kamoa-Kakula’s operations have been steadily ramping up, with the complex reporting year-to-date production of 303,328 metric tons. Construction on a new 500,000 metric ton per year smelter is proceeding as planned, with completion expected by the end of the year. However, grid-related power issues remain a concern that could affect future performance.

In contrast, the Kipushi zinc mine’s production forecast was significantly revised, with full-year guidance lowered to 50,000-70,000 metric tons of zinc in concentrate, down from the initial target of 100,000-140,000 metric tons. The mine produced 17,817 metric tons in the third quarter, but ramp-up efforts have been hampered by issues such as high iron content in the ore, limited processing throughput, and ongoing power transmission challenges. Ivanhoe had anticipated reaching an average annual production rate of 250,000 metric tons, but the current pace has been slower than expected.

The power supply difficulties, alongside technical issues in the concentrator at Kipushi, underscore broader infrastructure challenges in the DRC, potentially impacting the reliability of future production targets.

Ecuador Increases Power Tariffs for Copper Mines Amid Energy Crisis

Ecuacorriente S.A

In a move to address Ecuador's ongoing energy crisis, the country’s electricity regulatory agency, Arconel, has raised power tariffs for large-scale industries, including the copper mining sector. This change, which took effect on October 30, has significant implications for major mines in the country, notably Mirador, operated by China's Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, and Fruta del Norte, operated by Canadian company Lundin. The revised tariffs will impact electricity consumption during peak hours, further exacerbating the financial pressure on mining operations already grappling with soaring costs.

Key Changes to Power Tariffs

The new electricity tariffs target industries that consume the most power, with particular emphasis on mining operations. The most notable increases are:

• Peak Hours (6-10 pm): Increased from 8.10¢/kWh to 9.86¢/kWh.
• Daytime (8 am-6 pm): Raised from 6.8¢/kWh to 8.5¢/kWh.
• Off-Peak (10 pm-8 am): Increased from 5.4¢/kWh to 7.5¢/kWh.

These price hikes will affect two major mines in Ecuador: the Mirador copper mine, which is one of the country’s largest, and the Fruta del Norte gold mine. The tariff increases are a direct response to the national energy shortage caused by a harsh drought, which has significantly reduced the output from Ecuador’s primary hydroelectric plants.

Impact of Ecuador's Energy Crisis on Mining

Ecuador is currently facing a severe energy crisis, exacerbated by a lack of rainfall, which has hindered the operation of hydroelectric plants. As a result, the country has had to rely heavily on thermoelectric power generation, leading to a 77% increase in thermoelectric fuel consumption in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to Petroecuador, the state-owned oil and energy company.

Despite the increase in energy costs, the Ecuadorian mining chamber, which represents companies like Ecsa-Ecuacorriente and Lundin, has acknowledged that the tariff hike is necessary due to the energy crisis. The increased electricity tariffs are expected to affect the operational costs of these mines, making them less competitive in the global market.

Ecuador's Mining Exports and the Role of Copper

Ecuador's mining sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy. In the first half of 2024, Ecuador exported $688.8 million in copper concentrate, accounting for 42% of the country's total income from metal exports, which amounted to $1.6 billion. Copper export revenues saw a 12% increase from the previous year, highlighting the growing importance of copper as a key driver of the national economy.

The rise in power tariffs, however, may put the profitability of copper mining operations under strain, particularly for Mirador, one of Ecuador’s largest copper producers. While the mining chamber has voiced support for the tariff increase, it remains to be seen how these changes will affect long-term investment and growth in Ecuador's mining sector.

Orion Glencore DRC Stake Sale Could Redraw Western Access to Copper and Cobalt

Glencore DRC

The Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could become one of the most important critical minerals deals of the year. Glencore has agreed to a possible sale of 40pc of its Kamoto and Mutanda mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The talks value the two assets at around $9bn. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could reshape western copper and cobalt access.

This matters because the buyer is not a normal financial investor. Orion Critical Mineral Consortium was set up with direct US backing and a clear supply security mission. The group wants long-life production from high-quality mines that can support western industry. Therefore, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale fits a much broader US critical minerals strategy.

The deal also has strategic structure. Orion would gain board seats and the right to route its share of metal to chosen buyers under the US-DRC partnership. Glencore would still keep day-to-day control of the mines. Consequently, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale looks designed to influence supply direction without forcing a full operating transfer.

US Critical Minerals Strategy Is Moving Closer to Producing Assets

US critical minerals strategy is no longer focused only on early-stage projects. Washington has been moving toward assets that are already close to production or already operating. Orion’s earlier Prieska term sheet showed that approach on a smaller scale. This DRC move would take that strategy much further.

Recent US actions support the same pattern. Washington has widened its reach through metal tenders, minimum price tools, and Project Vault. These measures all aim to secure real physical supply, not only future optionality. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale would fit neatly into a larger push for direct control over material flows.

That is especially important for copper and cobalt. Both metals remain essential to electrification, batteries, aerospace, and industrial technology. However, western buyers still face concentrated supply chains and strong Chinese influence. Therefore, any credible route to diversify western copper and cobalt access now carries major geopolitical value.

DRC Cobalt Export Quota and Copper Priorities Are Shaping the Deal

The DRC cobalt export quota is one reason this deal makes sense now. Glencore’s operations remain central to the global cobalt chain, but they are increasingly shaped by policy limits rather than only geology. National exports are capped across 2026 and 2027, and Glencore’s own allocation is limited. Therefore, these mines can produce more cobalt than they can freely sell.

Glencore is also leaning harder into copper. Copper prices strengthened sharply in late 2025 and early 2026, while cobalt operations faced more pressure. The company has already shown it can shift plant time and logistics toward copper when returns are more attractive. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could help Glencore share risk while keeping focus on its preferred metal.

Operational pressure adds another layer. Kamoto and Mutanda have faced lower grades, stoppages, repair work, transport bottlenecks, and policy limits. These are still major assets, but they are no longer simple growth stories. Consequently, bringing in a new partner could help stabilize capital needs while giving western buyers a stronger foothold.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This possible sale matters because it combines geopolitics, mine ownership, and offtake control in one transaction. The bigger issue is not only who owns 40pc. It is who gets to direct future copper and cobalt units from some of the world’s most important DRC assets.

Ivanhoe Mines Confirms Strong Start to 2025 at DRC Copper and Zinc Operations

Ivanhoe Mines

Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi mines show robust early output as ramp-up continues toward full-year targets.

Ivanhoe Mines, the Canadian mining firm, reported that both its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are firmly on track to meet their 2025 production targets. Strong output in January and February suggests continued momentum across both flagship assets.

At Kamoa-Kakula, copper production reached 45,477 tonnes in January and 40,849 tonnes in February. Notably, during the final week of February alone, output hit 11,122 tonnes, equating to an annualized rate of over 578,000 tonnes—the upper end of Ivanhoe’s 2025 guidance of 520,000–580,000 tonnes.

Project 95 Expansion and Zinc Ramp-Up Progress

Ivanhoe confirmed that Project 95, which will add 30,000 tonnes/year of copper capacity, remains on schedule for completion in Q1 2026. This expansion will further boost Kamoa-Kakula’s long-term output as global copper demand continues to rise.

Meanwhile, the Kipushi zinc mine, which restarted operations in November 2024, posted record production of 16,063 tonnes in January and 11,903 tonnes in February, following a December high of 14,900 tonnes. Kipushi reached a nameplate milling rate of 2,000 tonnes per day in late February and is quickly approaching its 2025 target range of 180,000–240,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate.

Ivanhoe projects Kipushi will reach 250,000 tonnes in 2026 as ramp-up activities continue and processing efficiency improves.

These results affirm Ivanhoe’s position as a top-tier copper and zinc producer in one of the world’s richest mineral belts, with infrastructure and expansion plans already underway.

India’s OMC Raises Chrome Ore Base Prices Amid Limited Supply

Odisha

India’s state-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) has raised base prices for chrome ore at its October auction due to limited availability. The move reflects ongoing challenges in the ferro-chrome market, exacerbated by high production costs and sluggish demand in the stainless steel sector.

Price Adjustments

OMC set the base price for 48-49.99% grade chrome ore from its South Kaliapani mines at 21,026 rupees per tonne (Rs/t) ($250.2/t) in October, an increase from 19,743 Rs/t at its September auction. The base price for 50-51.99% grade ore from Sukrangi mines was set at 21,902 Rs/t, marking its return to the market after being absent in September’s auction.

Despite the price hikes, trading activity remains muted due to the high production costs and subdued demand in the stainless steel market. Domestic producers are seeking higher returns in the local market, partially driven by elevated freight costs in the export market.

Auction Highlights

On October 18, state-owned trading firm MSTC, on behalf of OMC, will auction:

•  23,500 tonnes of 42-54% grade friable chrome ore from the South Kaliapani and Sukrangi mines (up from 22,400 tonnes in September).
•  1,400 tonnes of 32-36% grade lumps, chips, and fines from Bangur mines.

Stable Ferro-Chrome Prices 

India’s domestic 60% grade ferro-chrome prices remained stable at Rs110,000-111,500 per tonne ex-works as of October 17. However, producers continue to face margin pressures due to high input costs and limited market activity.

Market Context

The increase in OMC’s base prices highlights the supply-demand imbalance in India’s chrome ore market. With limited ore availability and sluggish demand in the stainless steel sector, market participants are keeping a close eye on auction outcomes and price trends.

Zambian Copper Production Soars 12% in 2024 Amid Resurgence of Major Mines

Zambian Copper

In 2024, Zambia experienced a significant increase in copper production, with a 12% rise compared to the previous year, as major mining operations resumed. Mines and Minerals Minister Paul Kabuswe highlighted the resumed activities at key sites as pivotal to this growth, despite challenges such as energy shortages due to drought affecting hydroelectric power supplies.

Revitalization of Major Copper Mines

The surge in production was primarily fueled by the reactivation of operations at the Mopani underground copper mine. This followed the acquisition of a 51% stake by International Resources Holding from Abu Dhabi, marking a significant turnaround in the mine's output. Additionally, operations recommenced at Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), following the resolution of an ownership dispute with UK-based Vedanta Resources, which has now committed $1.3 billion to rejuvenate the mine over the next five years.

Expansions and New Investments Set to Boost Future Output

Further boosting the sector's prospects, Barrick's Lumwana copper mine began the development of a super pit expected to double its production capacity to 240,000 tons per year upon completion. Moreover, KoBold Metals, a company leveraging artificial intelligence in mining and backed by US investors, plans to invest $2 billion in a new copper project, signaling robust confidence in Zambia's copper industry's future.

Los Bronces Andina Joint Mine Plan Targets Major Chile Copper Growth

Codelco

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan has cleared another major milestone after Anglo American and Chilean state-owned Codelco completed their agreement to coordinate development of the neighbouring copper operations.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is expected to unlock an additional 2.7mn t of copper over 21 years from 2030. The companies expect the arrangement to lift combined production by around 120,000 t/yr.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is strategically significant because it creates additional copper supply without relying entirely on a new greenfield mine. Instead, Anglo and Codelco will optimise adjacent resources, infrastructure and mine planning across two established operations.

The agreement is also expected to generate at least $5bn in cost savings. Its implementation remains subject to environmental permitting and other customary conditions, with the joint plan expected to begin around 2030.

Adjacent Mines Create Lower-Cost Copper Growth

Los Bronces and Andina sit next to each other in one of Chile’s most important copper districts. Coordinating development allows the companies to optimise resources that would be less efficiently exploited under separate mine plans.

This type of brownfield growth is increasingly valuable for the copper market. New mines face long permitting periods, rising capital costs and infrastructure challenges, while existing districts can often add production faster through operational integration.

The projected additional 2.7mn t of copper is therefore meaningful for long-term global supply. Copper demand continues to rise across power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification.

Anglo’s Los Bronces operation has already shown improving performance. First-quarter output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second processing plant.

The joint plan could build on that recovery by improving access to ore and creating a more efficient long-term mining configuration across the wider district.

Chile Looks to Joint Development to Lift National Output

The agreement supports Chile’s goal of raising national copper production to 6mn t/yr by 2030. Maintaining that position will require new projects, mine-life extensions and better productivity from existing assets.

Anglo and Codelco expect the joint plan to save at least $5bn while maintaining existing environmental and sustainability commitments. That combination of higher output and lower unit development cost is increasingly important as copper projects become more expensive.

The agreement also allows both companies to continue pursuing standalone projects. For Anglo American, that includes its planned merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group, with a portfolio focused on copper, iron ore and zinc.

Environmental approval remains the key outstanding condition. That means the projected additional copper will not reach the market immediately, but the project strengthens Chile’s long-term supply pipeline.

For the global copper industry, the deal highlights an important growth model. Future supply may increasingly come from cooperation between neighbouring mines, shared infrastructure and more efficient use of existing mineral districts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo-Codelco agreement shows that the next wave of copper growth may come from optimising existing mining districts rather than building entirely new mines. In a market facing long permitting cycles and higher capital costs, adjacent-resource integration can unlock meaningful supply at lower risk.