Bolivia Reverses Court Ruling Freezing Lithium Concession Deals

Bolivia Lithium

Court Overturns Suspension but Legislative Gridlock Remains

Bolivia’s Colcha K district court has overturned a ruling that froze two major lithium concession deals with Chinese and Russian firms. The contracts, worth nearly $2bn, involve Hong Kong-based CBC, a subsidiary of CATL, and Russia’s Uranium One Group, part of state-owned Rosatom. The court also ordered Bolivia’s legislative assembly (ALP) to pass laws mandating consultation with indigenous communities before approving natural resource projects.

The contracts had been suspended in May following a lawsuit from Nor Lipez’s indigenous communities, which claimed no environmental impact studies had been conducted. While the court has lifted the precautionary measures, it did not grant final approval for the deals, leaving the decision with the politically divided ALP.

Political Stalemate Threatens Lithium Investment

Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB), Bolivia’s state lithium company, awarded the concessions in 2024 with a 51pc ownership stake. However, the ALP has stalled approvals for over six months, hindered by a lack of majority support among its polarized members. The impasse is exacerbated by the upcoming presidential election in August, with no clear frontrunner and President Luis Arce not seeking re-election.

Uncertainty is prompting Russia to explore lithium partnerships with Brazil, while market sources expect a decision to be postponed until a new president takes office. This delay risks slowing Bolivia’s ambitions to monetize its vast lithium reserves, critical for global electric vehicle battery supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Bolivia’s court reversal offers temporary relief for CBC and Uranium One, but legislative gridlock remains the true bottleneck. Without political consensus, foreign lithium investment could shift to more stable jurisdictions, challenging Bolivia’s role in the global battery supply chain.

US Antimony feedstock sourcing expands to secure smelter supply

US Antimony feedstock

US Antimony feedstock sourcing broadened across the US and overseas to stabilize operations. The company moved to secure inputs for its Montana and Mexico smelters. As a result, it advanced domestic mining claims and lined up new international suppliers. However, it also flagged issues with Australian material quality and logistics.

Domestic expansion: Alaska and Montana

US Antimony feedstock sourcing grew with new Alaska claims, including a 150-acre site near Fairbanks. The firm expects faster permitting since the land is neither federal nor state. Meanwhile, reacquired claims beside its Montana smelter should deliver stibnite within months. Therefore, domestic ore should lower supply risk and trucking distances.

International diversification: Bolivia and Chad

Bolivia will supply up to 150 t/month of antimony flake starting in early 2026. A 10 t pilot shipment arrives at the Montana smelter in August. Additionally, two sources in Chad will feed the Madero smelter, starting with 80 t. Subsequent deliveries should reach 100 t/month to support steady throughput. Canada also lifted feedstock to 857 t year-to-date, up 121 percent.

Australian sourcing faces setbacks following a 50 t shipment held 82 days by Chinese customs. Concurrently, incoming ore showed elevated arsenic and iron, pressuring processing costs. However, broader sourcing and scrap blending can offset penalties and maintain recoveries. Therefore, the portfolio approach underpins more reliable antimony supply for strategic markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Diversification is the right hedge as geopolitics and impurities raise feedstock risk. Watch ramp discipline in Bolivia and Chad and impurity management in Montana. If logistics hold, US Antimony can claw back margin despite uneven market conditions.

Chile Selects Six Priority Sites for Lithium Exploration

Chile Lithium

Chile has taken a major step forward in expanding its lithium production capabilities by selecting six key sites for exploration. According to the country's mining ministry, these locations include the Coipasa, Ollague, Ascotan, Piedra Parada, Agua Amarga, and Laguna Verde salt flats. This move reflects Chile's ongoing commitment to maintaining its position as a global leader in lithium production.

The consultation process with indigenous communities living near these exploration areas will begin in October, according to mining minister Aurora Williams. This step is part of the government’s effort to ensure that all stakeholders are involved in the decision-making process, especially regarding the environmental and social impacts of lithium extraction.

Upcoming Second List of Sites

Minister Williams also revealed that a second list of saline systems and deposits will be announced later this year, with an emphasis on feasibility criteria, geological factors, and environmental considerations. The Chilean government is striving to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility in its lithium expansion plans.

Chile has already received 12 project proposals from both private and state-run companies eager to explore lithium within the country’s borders. Finance minister Mario Marcel stated that Chile aims to increase its lithium production by more than 70% by 2030, a bold goal that would solidify its status as a lithium powerhouse.

Chile currently holds an estimated 36-40% of the world's lithium reserves, sharing its position in the so-called "lithium triangle" with Bolivia and Argentina. As the world's second-largest producer of lithium, Chile is playing a crucial role in the growing demand for this vital mineral, which is essential for electric vehicle batteries and other green technologies.

Minimal Impact on US Antimony Prices Following China's Export Ban

Wogen Resources

China's recent decision to halt antimony exports to the US is expected to have a minimal effect on US antimony prices, despite the ongoing supply constraints from the Asian giant. This move comes as part of a broader export ban on "dual-use" items, including germanium and gallium, which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced will be effective immediately.

Market Response and Analysis

US market participants had largely anticipated the export ban, suggesting that the initial impact on antimony prices might be subdued. "The question now is where we go from here," a European trader explained to Metalnomist. He noted the need for the market to find stability in terms of price ceilings and floors.

Prior to the announcement, US traders had already begun testing lower price offers, ranging from $38,500 to $39,000 per ton on a cif basis. This adjustment came after a period of resistance to higher prices spurred by panic buying in the preceding months. According to another trader, while it's unlikely that prices will decrease significantly from current levels due to supply-side constraints, the market might see even fewer offers moving forward.

Global Search for New Suppliers

This ban underscores the growing urgency among global antimony consumers to find new supply sources. With a significant portion of the US antimony supply traditionally sourced from China, countries like India, Bolivia, Myanmar, and Vietnam may become alternative routes for this critical metal.

Potential Opportunities and Developments

In light of these supply challenges, Turkey could emerge as a beneficiary, given its substantial antimony production capacity. Additionally, new developments in Australia, such as the Hillgrove project in New South Wales, promise future relief, with plans to produce a notable portion of global antimony output starting in 2026.

In the US, Perpetua Resources is advancing its Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, which is set to significantly contribute to the domestic supply once operational.

Global Refined Zinc Market Slips into Deficit in 2024, Reports ILZSG

ILZSG

Declining Supply Triggers Market Deficit Despite Steady Demand

The global refined zinc market fell into a deficit of 62,000 tonnes in 2024, as supply dropped while demand remained stable, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This marks a significant change from the previous year, when the zinc market recorded a surplus of 310,000 tonnes.

Zinc Mine Output Drops Across Key Regions

Global mined zinc output declined by 2.8% year-on-year to 11.89 million tonnes. Major contributing factors included a sharp 31.5% drop in Canada, a 1.5% decrease in China, and a 13.5% fall in Peru due to lower production at the Antamina mine. European zinc mining also slipped by 9.7%, mainly from Ireland and Poland. However, higher output in Bolivia, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—where Ivanhoe Mines launched the Kipushi mine in June—helped offset these declines.

Refined Zinc Production and Use Trends

Refined zinc production dropped 2.6% in 2024, reaching 13.55 million tonnes. The fall was primarily due to limited concentrate availability and production cuts in China, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Some recovery was seen as France, India, and Germany increased their output, especially with the Nordenham smelter resuming operations in March. Meanwhile, global refined zinc consumption edged up by 0.1%, driven by higher demand in Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam. Consumption declined in China, Europe, and the US. Notably, China’s imports of zinc in concentrate form also fell by 13.1% to 1.96 million tonnes. In December alone, refined zinc use outpaced production, creating a monthly deficit of 41,100 tonnes.

Chile Expands Lithium Exploration with Six New Priority Sites

Chile Lithium

Chile has designated six additional sites for lithium exploration, expanding its priority areas to 12 as the country looks to capitalize on its position as a global lithium powerhouse.

New Lithium Exploration Areas Announced

On December 5, Chile’s mining ministry revealed six new sites for lithium exploration in the Tarapacá and Antofagasta regions. These areas include:

• Hilaricos and Quillagua Norte in the Tarapacá region.
• Quillagua Este, Quillagua Sur, Maria Elena Este, and Cerro Pabellon in the Antofagasta region.

Unlike traditional lithium production from brine in salt flats, these new sites present opportunities for polymetallic mining and lithium extraction from clays or geothermal sources.

Exploration and Tendering Process

Chile plans to issue special lithium operating contracts (CEOLs) for each of the 12 priority sites. The tendering process for the first five areas will begin in early 2025, with interested companies required to:

• Hold at least 80% of the mining concessions for a given deposit.
• Submit background information by the end of January 2025 for a simplified process.

For Cerro Pabellon, where geothermal energy companies Chilean Enap and Italian Enel operate, a separate tendering process will be announced.

Indigenous Consultation and Sustainability

The Chilean government emphasized that indigenous consultations will be conducted before tendering any sites, ensuring compliance with sustainability and community engagement standards. This approach aligns with Chile’s broader efforts to develop its critical minerals sector responsibly.

Chile's Global Lithium Standing

Chile is a key player in the global lithium market, holding 36-40% of global reserves as part of the "lithium triangle" with Bolivia and Argentina. The country is the second-largest producer of lithium globally, and these new initiatives aim to further cement its leadership in the market amid soaring global demand driven by electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Lithium Chile Sells 80% Stake in Arizaro Lithium Project for $180 Million

Arizaro

Lithium Chile, a Canada-based lithium mining company, has agreed to sell its 80% stake in the Arizaro lithium project in Argentina for $180 million. The deal, announced on Thursday, involves a binding letter of intent with a large Asian company operating in mining, renewable energy, and technology sectors. However, Lithium Chile has not disclosed the buyer’s identity.

The Arizaro lithium project, located in Salta province, is a key lithium asset with an estimated 4.12 million metric tonnes (mt) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and a projected 20-year mine life, according to Lithium Chile's official reports.

Regulatory Approvals Pending

The sale is still subject to government and regulatory approvals, which must be finalized before the transaction is completed. The project is managed through Geo Inversiones Mineras, Lithium Chile’s Argentinian subsidiary.

Lithium Chile operates 11 properties covering over 100,000 hectares (ha) in Chile and approximately 30,000 ha in Argentina, positioning it as a major player in South America’s lithium market.

Strategic Position in the Lithium Triangle

The Arizaro salt flat is part of Argentina’s growing lithium industry, which is crucial to the "lithium triangle", a region comprising Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile that holds approximately 60% of the world’s lithium resources.

The sale of this key lithium asset underscores increasing Asian investment in South America's lithium sector, as demand for battery metals continues to rise in response to global EV market growth.

Rio Tinto's $2.5 Billion Investment Boosts Argentina's Lithium Production Capabilities

Rio Tinto Argentina's Lithium

International mining giant Rio Tinto has announced a substantial $2.5 billion investment in the expansion of its Rincon lithium operation in Argentina, aiming to increase the country's lithium production six-fold over the next decade. This move marks a significant step in Argentina's ambition to become a leading global energy supplier.

Strategic Expansion and Technological Advancements

The Rincon project, located in Salta province, commenced with a 3,000 metric tons per year starter plant in November and is Rio Tinto's inaugural commercial lithium operation. The new investment will enhance annual production to 60,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate. Utilizing advanced direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, the expansion is set to begin construction in mid-2025, with ramped-up production expected to start in 2028 and reach full capacity early in the next decade.

This strategic enhancement not only elevates Rio Tinto's position in the lithium market but also contributes significantly to Argentina's growing status in the global energy sector, alongside its LNG and oil exports.

Argentina's Lithium Market and Economic Reforms

Argentina currently ranks as the fourth-largest lithium producer globally, boasting substantial reserves and resources. The nation is a crucial part of the "lithium triangle," which includes neighboring Bolivia and Chile and holds about 60% of the world's lithium resources.

In support of such large-scale investments, Argentina has implemented economic reforms including the Regimen de Incentivo Grande Inversiones (RIGI), which offers tax and customs benefits, and legal stability for investments exceeding $200 million. Rio Tinto is among the companies poised to benefit from RIGI, reflecting a favorable investment environment under President Javier Milei's administration, which has also introduced sweeping tax reforms aimed at boosting economic stability and growth.

Hunan lithium resource discovery lifts China’s LCE outlook

Hunan lithium

Revised deposit metrics and strategic context

The Hunan lithium resource discovery adds a 49mn-tonne lepidolite deposit in Linwu. Authorities estimate 1.31mn t lithium oxide, or 3.24mn t LCE. The ore also contains rubidium, tungsten, and tin. Therefore, the Hunan lithium resource discovery broadens China’s battery raw material base.

Revised national resources and project pipeline

China’s lithium resource estimate now stands at 16.5% of global resources. Revisions reflect new finds in Sichuan, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Hunan. Meanwhile, officials still rank China second globally, behind Bolivia. As a result, the Hunan lithium resource discovery strengthens supply diversification across provinces.

Dazhong Mining investments and timeline

Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining is building integrated mining and processing in Hunan. The 16bn-yuan plan includes ore, lithium carbonate, CAM, and battery plants. Phase one targets 10mn t per year ore and 20,000 t per year lithium carbonate in 2026. Additionally, Dazhong owns the Jiada spodumene asset in Sichuan with 1.48mn t LCE.

This discovery could influence lepidolite processing economics and domestic supply security. Granite-type lepidolite requires energy, reagents, and recovery optimization. However, co-products may offset costs and improve project viability. Therefore, downstream cathode producers could hedge against imported feedstock volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Large lepidolite resources can reshape China’s midstream flexibility if recoveries scale competitively. Execution will hinge on beneficiation yields, reagent costs, and ESG standards. Watch Dazhong’s commissioning cadence and LCE conversion routes through 2026.

Codelco Secures $666mn Copper Financing Deal with JBIC

Chilean Codelco

Codelco has signed a $666mn copper financing agreement to strengthen supply ties between Chile and Japan.

JBIC Loan Reinforces Chile-Japan Copper Partnership

Chilean copper major Codelco secured a $466mn loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). An additional $200mn was co-financed by an undisclosed commercial bank, bringing the deal total to $666mn.

This move follows Codelco’s announcement of 2024 copper production reaching 1.44mn metric tonnes, reclaiming its spot as the world’s top copper producer. The funding aims to guarantee a stable supply of Chilean copper concentrate to Japan, according to Codelco.

JBIC Governor Hayashi Nobumitsu emphasized the strategic importance of the deal. He noted it could pave the way for future investment in critical minerals such as lithium.

Broader Mineral Ties Strengthen in Lithium Triangle

In 2023, Codelco formed a joint venture with SQM to produce 300,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2030. This lithium expansion reinforces Japan's interest in the Lithium Triangle, which includes Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.

Japan’s Toyota Tsusho Group already holds a 25% stake in the Salar de Olaroz lithium mine in Argentina, showing a growing trend of resource-linked partnerships in South America.

These developments signal Japan’s intention to secure long-term access to copper and battery metals, essential for its industrial and clean energy ambitions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco's financing agreement with JBIC signals more than a capital injection. It reflects a broader geopolitical alignment between Chile’s mineral sector and Japan’s energy security strategy. As global demand for both copper and lithium intensifies, strategic funding deals like this will shape the future of critical mineral trade.

Latam EV Market Set for Massive 2025 Expansion Driven by Chinese Automakers

Latam EV Market

The Latam EV market will experience unprecedented growth in 2025 as electric vehicle sales in Latin America and emerging markets double to 1 million units. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese automakers drive this expansion by offering significantly cheaper models than traditional Western brands. The Latam EV market surge represents a critical shift in global automotive demand that will substantially increase battery materials consumption across the region.

Chinese Battery Technology Advantages Fuel Market Penetration

Chinese automakers captured 75% of all EV sales in emerging economies by leveraging superior cost advantages in battery pack manufacturing. China produces cheaper battery packs due to intense competition, enhanced manufacturing efficiency, supply chain integration, and access to skilled workforces. Meanwhile, Chinese battery pack prices fell 30% compared to only 10-15% decreases in Europe and the United States.

BYD and GWM electric vehicles now compete directly with conventional petrol cars in key Latam EV market segments. In Brazil, BYD's largest market outside China, the price gap between battery electric cars and conventional vehicles narrowed to just 25%. Therefore, Chinese manufacturers achieve price parity with internal combustion engines in Thailand and approach competitive pricing across Latin America.

Regional Manufacturing Expansion Promises Further Cost Reductions

Local production capacity remains minimal, with only 5% of EVs sold in emerging markets produced regionally currently. GWM and BYD plan to establish factories in Latin America by late 2026, potentially driving down costs further. As a result, these manufacturing facilities will bypass import tariffs while reducing transportation costs for the expanding Latam EV market.

Regional battery material demand will surge as local EV production scales rapidly across Latin America. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other critical minerals consumption will increase substantially to support growing battery manufacturing requirements. However, Latin America possesses significant lithium reserves, particularly in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, creating opportunities for vertical supply chain integration.

Global EV sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024, capturing 20% market share worldwide. The IEA projects 2025 sales will surpass 20 million units, representing over 25% of global automotive sales. Consequently, the Latam EV market expansion contributes meaningfully to this accelerating global electrification trend.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Latam EV market boom signals a fundamental shift in global battery materials demand geography, with Chinese manufacturers leveraging cost advantages to penetrate price-sensitive emerging markets. This expansion will create substantial new demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel while potentially enabling Latin America to capture more value from its abundant critical mineral resources through local processing and battery manufacturing integration.