Airbus Safran Aubert & Duval Deal Deepens Control of Aerospace Speciality Metals

Aubert & Duval

Airbus Safran Aubert & Duval ownership is set to consolidate further after the two European aerospace groups agreed to acquire Tikehau Capital’s stake in the French speciality metals producer.

Airbus Safran Aubert & Duval control is strategically important because the company manufactures bars, forgings, ingots and other products from speciality steels, nickel-based superalloys and titanium. These materials are critical for aircraft engines, structural components and defence applications.

Airbus Safran Aubert & Duval ownership will be split more directly between the two industrial buyers after Tikehau’s stake is divided equally between them. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals.

The deal strengthens vertical control over a strategic European aerospace materials supplier at a time when aircraft manufacturers continue to face bottlenecks in forgings, superalloys and titanium components.

Aerospace Groups Secure Critical Forging and Alloy Capacity

Aubert & Duval occupies an important position between raw metal production and finished aerospace components. Its products include speciality alloy ingots, bars and forgings used in demanding high-temperature and high-strength applications.

This makes the company strategically relevant to both Airbus and Safran. Airbus needs qualified titanium, steel and superalloy products across aircraft structures and systems, while Safran depends heavily on high-performance metals for jet engine components.

Forging capacity is particularly important. Aerospace forgings require specialised equipment, long qualification cycles and tight process control, making it difficult to replace suppliers quickly when capacity tightens.

Superalloys also remain essential for hot-section engine components because they retain mechanical strength and corrosion resistance at extreme temperatures.

Titanium serves a different but equally important role. Its strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance make it valuable in aircraft structures, landing gear, engine systems and other high-performance applications.

By increasing direct ownership, Airbus and Safran gain stronger influence over investment, capacity planning and production priorities at a supplier embedded deep inside their supply chains.

European Supply Security Drives Vertical Integration

Airbus, Safran and Tikehau originally acquired Aubert & Duval from Eramet in April 2023. The latest transaction moves the company even closer to its two largest strategic industrial stakeholders.

The French government also retains a special share to protect national strategic interests. That structure highlights the importance of Aubert & Duval not only to commercial aviation but also to defence and sovereign industrial capability.

The transaction reflects a wider aerospace trend toward securing critical suppliers rather than relying entirely on open-market procurement. Aircraft backlogs remain high, while qualified metals capacity has struggled to expand quickly enough in several segments.

Direct ownership can help protect investment in furnaces, forging presses, heat treatment and downstream processing. It can also improve coordination between material availability and aircraft or engine production schedules.

For Europe, this matters because aerospace supply security increasingly depends on retaining domestic capability in specialty alloys and high-value metal processing.

The transaction therefore goes beyond a financial restructuring. It strengthens Airbus and Safran’s control over one of Europe’s most strategically important producers of titanium, speciality steels and superalloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus and Safran are treating speciality metals capacity as strategic infrastructure rather than a conventional supplier relationship. In aerospace, control over qualified titanium, superalloy and forging capacity is becoming as important as aircraft assembly itself.

Nornickel Nickel Surplus Forecast Shrinks as Indonesia Supply Tightens

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast has been cut sharply for 2026 as Indonesian ore constraints, higher feedstock costs and sulphur shortages slow the supply growth that drove recent oversupply. The Russian producer now expects a marginal global surplus of around 20,000t, down from its previous forecast of 240,000t.

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast reflects a major shift in supply conditions. Global nickel production is expected to fall by 5% to 3.71mn t in 2026, marking the first annual decline in a decade, while demand is forecast to rise by 2% to 3.69mn t.

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast also places Indonesia at the centre of the market balance. Lower effective mining volumes, declining ore grades and sharply higher ore prices are tightening feedstock availability for NPI, HPAL and Class 1 nickel producers.

The adjustment follows a 2025 surplus of around 278,000t, when supply increased by 7% and demand rose by 6%. The market is therefore moving from structural oversupply toward a much tighter balance.

Indonesia Ore and Sulphur Constraints Reshape Supply

Indonesia mined around 320mn t of nickel ore in 2025 against an approved quota of 379mn t. For 2026, quotas are expected at around 300mn t, but actual mining could be closer to 270mn t if utilisation remains near 90%.

Lower ore grades further reduce contained nickel availability. Indonesian NPI production fell by 8% year on year in January-May, suggesting smelters are already feeling the impact.

Philippine ore imports could reach around 25mn t this year and offset part of the shortfall. However, Indonesia’s July quota review remains a critical market variable.

Ore economics are tightening as well. Indonesia’s revised pricing formula has doubled or tripled minimum ore prices for some grades.

Nornickel estimates the new system could add as much as $5,000/t to the cost of Class 1 nickel produced from Indonesian feedstock on a cathode-equivalent basis.

HPAL producers face another problem: sulphur.

Middle East disruption has pushed sulphur prices from around $300/t to above $1,000/t. HPAL operations require roughly 10-11t of sulphur for every tonne of nickel produced.

Indonesia sourced more than 75% of its sulphur imports from the Middle East in 2025, leaving battery nickel projects highly exposed to disrupted maritime supply.

Around one-third of HPAL capacity is currently idle, while HPAL production fell by 20% year on year in May.

Nornickel expects Indonesian NPI output to decline by 11% this year and mixed hydroxide precipitate production by 9%. Class 1 nickel supply is forecast to fall by 2%.

Demand Growth Stays Modest as Stainless Scrap Use Rises

Nickel demand is still growing, but not strongly enough to create a clear deficit.

Nornickel expects stainless steel nickel consumption to rise by only 1% this year. Chinese producers are using more scrap, reducing their need for primary nickel units.

China’s average stainless scrap share is expected to increase to 24% in 2026 from 19% in 2025. That change could keep Chinese primary nickel demand in stainless steel broadly flat at around 1.6mn t.

A higher share of 316 stainless partly offsets the scrap effect because 316 contains more nickel than 304. Chinese 300-series stainless output increased by 3% in the first five months of the year, while 200-series production rose by 11%.

Battery-related demand remains stronger.

China’s nickel sulphate output is forecast to rise by 15% to 421,000t of contained nickel in 2026 and reach 455,000t in 2027. Indonesian nickel sulphate production is expected to increase by 18% to 59,000t this year.

Matte output is another growth area. Indonesian nickel matte production is forecast to jump by 48% as conversion from NPI becomes more attractive.

The market could loosen again in 2027. Nornickel expects the surplus to widen modestly to around 55,000t if Indonesian ore quotas increase, sulphur availability improves and new processing capacity ramps up.

The near-term nickel story has therefore changed. Oversupply has not disappeared, but the margin between surplus and balance has narrowed sharply as Indonesian policy and feedstock economics begin to constrain output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel’s biggest bullish driver is no longer demand acceleration but supply discipline in Indonesia. If ore quotas remain tight and sulphur costs stay elevated, the market could remain far more balanced than recent oversupply trends suggested.

Nickel Industries HPAL Expansion Targets Indonesian MHP Growth Through Acquisitions

Tsingshan

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion will move forward through acquisitions rather than new project development as Indonesia tightens control over additional high pressure acid leach capacity. The Australian producer will acquire stakes in two MHP projects next to its existing Excelsior Nickel Cobalt operation in Central Sulawesi.

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion is strategically important because Indonesia has stopped issuing licences for new HPAL developments since late 2025, according to the company. That makes existing permitted projects increasingly valuable to producers seeking battery-grade nickel growth.

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion covers the planned Teluk Metal Industry and Chengsheng New Energy projects. Together, the stakes would give NI attributable MHP capacity of almost 17,000 t/yr.

Both projects are located in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and will use ore from NI’s Sampala mine. Their output will feed the electric vehicle battery supply chain.

TMI and CNE Add MHP Capacity Around Existing ENC Platform

NI will pay $169mn for a 17.5% stake in the Teluk Metal Industry HPAL project. TMI has planned nameplate MHP capacity of 38,640 t/yr, giving NI 6,775 t/yr of attributable output.

The transaction also carries construction protection from Tsingshan. The Chinese nickel and stainless steel producer has guaranteed that NI’s investment will be capped at $169mn and that TMI will reach nameplate production by September 2027.

This lowers construction risk for NI and reinforces its relationship with Tsingshan, which already owns an indirect 44% stake in the ENC project.

TMI’s remaining ownership includes Singapore-based Sumber International Investment and a South Korean-Japanese consortium involving LS MnM, Hanwa and another strategic investor. The structure shows how Asian industrial groups are positioning themselves around Indonesian battery nickel supply.

NI is also pursuing a 36% stake in the Chengsheng New Energy HPAL project together with a local partner. The acquisition will be funded by transferring 30% of their combined ownership in the Sampala nickel mine.

CNE has MHP capacity of 28,357 t/yr, with 10,208 t/yr attributable to NI. Commissioning is expected by mid-2027.

The CNE transaction still requires shareholder approval because an NI director is associated with the selling investment firm. That adds a governance step before completion.

Indonesia Licensing Limits Increase Value of Existing HPAL Assets

Indonesia’s decision to stop issuing new HPAL licences changes the economics of nickel expansion. Producers can no longer rely on greenfield development to add battery-grade processing capacity.

This gives existing permitted projects a scarcity premium. Companies seeking growth must acquire stakes, partner with current licence holders or expand existing operations.

For NI, TMI and CNE extend the company’s battery nickel platform around ENC. The 46%-owned ENC project is preparing to produce nickel cathode and nickel sulphate, giving NI exposure further downstream than MHP alone.

The strategy also integrates mining and processing. Ore from the Sampala project will supply both TMI and CNE, linking captive feedstock with HPAL conversion and battery-material output.

That integration matters because Indonesia’s nickel industry is increasingly constrained by ore availability, regulatory approvals and government efforts to manage oversupply.

The policy shift could support nickel prices by slowing future HPAL growth. But it also raises the value of projects already holding development rights.

For NI, acquisitions therefore become more than a growth option. They are now the main route to expanding Indonesian MHP production under a tighter licensing regime.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s HPAL licensing freeze is turning permitted projects into strategic assets. Nickel Industries is responding by buying access to existing capacity, showing how policy can shift competition from project development to asset acquisition.

Brazil ETS Calendar Sets Phased Path for Industrial Emissions Reporting

Brazil

Brazil ETS calendar proposals would bring heavy industry into the country’s emerging emissions trading system through phased reporting from 2027, 2029 and 2031. The finance ministry’s preliminary schedule is designed to give companies more visibility before mandatory emissions limits are applied.

Brazil ETS calendar plans would first cover paper and cellulose, ferrous metals and steel, cement, primary aluminum, oil and gas exploration and production, refining and air transport. These sectors sit at the centre of Brazil’s industrial emissions base.

Brazil ETS calendar development is strategically important for metals producers because steel, aluminum and mining will face rising scrutiny over carbon intensity. The system could gradually reshape investment decisions, energy sourcing and competitiveness.

Brazil’s emissions trading system, known as SBCE, is expected to be regulated by the end of this year. The government plans to launch a public consultation in July.

Steel and Primary Aluminum Enter the First Phase

The first phase places steel and primary aluminum among the earliest industrial sectors to report emissions. This is important because both industries are energy-intensive and increasingly exposed to carbon-related trade and customer requirements.

For steelmakers, emissions reporting will create a clearer baseline for future decarbonization planning. Companies will need to measure process emissions, energy use and operating practices before sector limits are introduced.

Primary aluminum producers will face similar pressure. Aluminum’s carbon footprint depends heavily on power source, smelting efficiency and upstream alumina supply.

The proposed structure gives companies time to prepare. Each phase would last four years, beginning with emissions monitoring before setting total emissions limits for each sector.

Reductions would remain non-mandatory during the initial phases. This lowers immediate compliance pressure, but still pushes companies to build emissions data systems and prepare for future regulation.

Mining and Recycled Aluminum Follow in Second Phase

The second phase would add mining, recycled aluminum, electricity, glass, food and beverages, chemicals, ceramics and waste. This expands the ETS from core heavy emitters into broader industrial supply chains.

Mining’s inclusion matters because Brazil is a major supplier of iron ore, bauxite, manganese, nickel, lithium and other critical minerals. Emissions reporting could become part of how mineral exports are assessed by customers and financiers.

Recycled aluminum entering the second phase also matters. Secondary aluminum usually carries a lower carbon profile than primary metal, but reporting requirements may still shape scrap processing, remelting efficiency and product certification.

Electricity’s inclusion is also critical. Power-sector emissions influence the carbon footprint of metals, chemicals and downstream manufacturing.

The third phase would cover road, waterways and rail transport. That could eventually affect logistics costs and emissions accounting across mineral exports, domestic freight and industrial supply chains.

The finance ministry said the proposal aims to create predictability for a gradual transition to decarbonization. That predictability will be essential if Brazil wants industry to invest before binding limits arrive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s ETS proposal is not yet a hard cap on industry, but it is the start of carbon accounting discipline. For metals and mining companies, early preparation could become a competitive advantage once customers and regulators begin pricing emissions more directly.

Record Temperatures 2026-30 Forecast Raises Climate Risk for Industry

WMO

Record temperatures 2026-30 are likely to keep global heat at or near historic highs, according to a report produced by the UK’s Met Office for the World Meteorological Organization. The forecast points to average annual global near-surface temperatures of 1.3°C-1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

Record temperatures 2026-30 would extend a period of exceptional heat after 2023-25 became the three hottest years on record. The report also gives an 86% chance that at least one year in 2026-30 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Record temperatures 2026-30 carry direct implications for energy, mining, agriculture, logistics and industrial manufacturing. Higher heat levels can increase power demand, strain grids, disrupt water availability and raise operating risk for resource industries.

The outlook also reinforces the gap between climate targets and current warming trends. The Paris Agreement seeks to keep temperature rises well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Temporary Threshold Breaches Increase Policy Pressure

The report found a 91% chance that global average near-surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also found a 75% likelihood that the five-year mean will breach the same threshold.

That does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal has formally failed. The agreement’s thresholds refer to sustained warming over an extended period, typically measured over about 20 years.

However, temporary breaches still matter. They increase pressure on governments to accelerate emissions cuts, expand renewable power, improve energy efficiency and strengthen climate adaptation policies.

For metals and mining, this creates a two-sided market effect. Stronger climate action supports demand for copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, rare earths and electrical steel used in grids, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy.

At the same time, higher temperatures increase operational risk. Mines, smelters, refineries and transport corridors can face more heat stress, water constraints, power reliability problems and weather-related disruption.

El Nino Risk Adds Volatility to Industrial Planning

The past 11 years have been the warmest on record, mainly because of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The report said anomalous warmth was widespread in 2021-25, even though La Nina conditions prevailed in four of those five years.

The forecast now points to a tendency toward El Nino conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028. El Nino typically raises global temperatures, while La Nina usually has a cooling effect.

This matters because El Nino can intensify weather volatility. Heat, drought, floods and shifting rainfall patterns can affect hydropower, crop output, transport, mine operations and energy markets.

Industrial companies will need to treat climate risk as an operating variable, not only a sustainability issue. Power security, water management, site resilience and supply-chain redundancy will become more important in capital planning.

The report’s use of predictions from 13 institutes adds weight to the outlook. The central message is that high-temperature years are becoming more frequent as underlying global warming approaches key climate thresholds.

For resource markets, that means climate policy and physical climate risk will increasingly shape demand, costs and investment decisions at the same time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The WMO outlook shows that climate risk is moving from long-term scenario planning into near-term industrial reality. Metals demand will benefit from decarbonisation, but producers must also prepare for hotter, more volatile operating conditions.

Alabama Scrap Shredder to Strengthen Outokumpu’s Stainless Recycling Loop

Jefferson Iron & Metal

Alabama scrap shredder investment by Jefferson Iron and Metal Brokerage will create a dedicated scrap processing route inside Outokumpu’s stainless steel mill in Calvert. The $22mn project will support a tighter closed-loop scrap supply system for the Alabama stainless operation.

Alabama scrap shredder capacity is planned at about 9,000 short tons per month. The shredder will process scrap generated at Outokumpu’s mill near Mobile, Alabama, and return the shredded material directly into the plant’s operations.

Alabama scrap shredder development is strategically important because stainless steel mills depend on clean, consistent and efficiently prepared scrap. Better on-site processing can reduce handling costs, improve material control and support higher recycled-content production.

Jefferson Shredding and Recycling, a subsidiary of Alabama-based Jefferson Iron and Metal Brokerage, plans to break ground next month. Operations are expected to begin in August 2027.

On-Site Shredding Improves Scrap Control

The project gives Outokumpu a more direct route for recovering and reusing internal stainless scrap. Instead of moving material through a longer external supply chain, the mill can keep more scrap within its own operating loop.

This matters because stainless scrap contains valuable alloying elements such as chromium, nickel and molybdenum. Preserving those units inside the mill system can improve raw material efficiency and reduce exposure to external alloy and scrap markets.

On-site shredding also supports better quality control. Stainless mills need scrap that is properly sized, separated and prepared for melting. Poorly controlled scrap can create chemistry risk, yield loss and operating inefficiency.

The Jefferson-Outokumpu structure is practical. Jefferson brings scrap processing expertise, while Outokumpu gains a dedicated recycling asset linked directly to its stainless production base.

Closed-Loop Recycling Supports US Stainless Competitiveness

The Calvert mill is one of the most important stainless steel assets in the US. Adding dedicated scrap processing strengthens its ability to compete in a market where recycled content, cost control and supply security are increasingly important.

Stainless steel recycling is already a major advantage for the sector. But the value rises when mills can shorten the route between scrap generation, preparation and remelting.

The project also fits wider trends in US metals manufacturing. Producers are trying to localise feedstock, reduce waste, lower logistics exposure and improve traceability.

For Jefferson, the investment expands its role from scrap broker and recycler into an embedded processing partner for a major stainless producer. For Outokumpu, the shredder improves scrap circularity and gives the mill more control over internal material flows.

The 2027 start-up timeline means the project will not affect near-term stainless supply. But once operational, it should strengthen the Calvert site’s raw material flexibility and recycling efficiency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Jefferson-Outokumpu project shows that recycling advantage is increasingly built inside the mill gate. In stainless steel, controlling scrap chemistry, size and flow can be as important as securing primary alloy inputs.

Indonesia Metals Investment Risk Rises as Policy Shifts Cloud Downstreaming

Indonesia Nickel mining

Indonesia metals investment faces growing uncertainty as frequent policy changes test foreign investor confidence in the country’s mining and processing sector. Jakarta’s latest move to route key commodity exports through a new state-owned enterprise adds another layer of complexity to an already policy-heavy operating environment.

Indonesia metals investment has been supported for years by the country’s downstreaming strategy, especially in nickel. However, investors are now watching whether sudden changes in royalties, export levies, price floors, export proceeds rules and RKAB approvals could weaken the economics of new projects.

Indonesia metals investment remains strategically important because the country dominates global nickel supply and is attracting major aluminium, battery, ferro-alloy and electric vehicle-related projects. But policy direction and policy predictability are not the same thing.

The government’s natural resource strategy is clear. It wants tighter export control, higher state revenue, more domestic value addition and greater retention of foreign exchange. The main concern is how quickly and broadly those rules are implemented.

DSI Export Rule Adds New Uncertainty to Nickel Downstreaming

The planned use of Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia as a state export channel is the clearest sign of Jakarta’s tightening control over commodity flows. The policy initially targets palm oil, coal and ferro-alloys, but nickel market participants expect broader implications.

Nickel pig iron is likely to be affected because it is a ferro-alloy. That matters because Indonesia’s nickel growth has been built around NPI, stainless steel, nickel matte and battery-material processing.

A centralised export model could reshape how contracts, pricing and payments are handled. If DSI becomes the sole counterparty for overseas buyers, private producers and traders may lose commercial flexibility.

The policy follows several other changes. Indonesia has revised government-mandated price floors, required export proceeds to remain in domestic banks for at least 12 months, adjusted royalty rates, introduced export levy plans and modified the RKAB application process.

These measures all fit Jakarta’s broader resource nationalism agenda. But rapid revisions make it harder for companies to model long-term returns.

Nickel producers have already faced uncertainty over royalty and export duty proposals. The government announced planned changes in April, then postponed them in May before the intended June start date.

This pattern may show that officials are willing to listen to industry feedback. But it also suggests that policy design and communication remain incomplete before major measures are announced.

The risk is that investors begin pricing Indonesia as a less predictable jurisdiction. That could slow downstreaming projects, especially those requiring large capital commitments, long payback periods and imported technology.

Several battery and nickel projects have already faced delays from feedstock constraints, regulatory approvals or weaker market conditions. These include projects linked to Chengtun, Hanrui and LG Energy Solution.

Some operations have also cut or halted production because of delayed or insufficient RKAB approvals. This shows how permitting and quota decisions can directly affect physical output.

Aluminium and Manganese Projects Face Spillover Risk

The market’s immediate focus is nickel, but the risk is wider. If the DSI model expands across more strategic commodities, aluminium and manganese investors could also face new pricing and export constraints.

Chinese aluminium producers have been increasing overseas investment in Indonesia since China imposed a 45mn t/yr cap on domestic primary aluminium capacity. Indonesia offers power access, industrial park infrastructure and proximity to Asian growth markets.

Tsingshan is building an 800,000 t/yr aluminium smelter in Indonesia. Nanshan Aluminium plans to expand its Bintan Industrial Park facility to 500,000 t/yr, while Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia commissioned a 500,000 t/yr smelter in 2025.

Some Chinese companies are also considering downstream aluminium processing projects in Indonesia. These investments would move the country beyond smelting and into fabricated products.

But discounted sales from Chinese-invested Indonesian smelters could become harder if aluminium exports are eventually routed through DSI. A state-controlled export platform may not allow the same commercial discounting that buyers currently use.

That would raise costs for Chinese buyers and could change the economics of Indonesia-based aluminium supply chains. It could also affect trade flows if producers lose flexibility in pricing and contract structures.

Manganese may also be exposed. Tsingshan has invested in Indonesian manganese production, with six lines and combined capacity of 100,000 t/yr.

The broader lesson is that Indonesia’s downstreaming success depends on credibility as well as control. Investors can adapt to higher royalties, stricter export rules or local processing requirements if implementation is clear and stable.

Uncertainty is more damaging than regulation itself. If companies cannot predict which products will be covered, how prices will be set or when rules will take effect, they may delay capital spending.

Indonesia still has enormous strategic leverage in nickel and growing relevance in aluminium, manganese and battery materials. But maintaining that position will require policy discipline, transparent consultation and practical implementation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is not retreating from downstreaming; it is tightening state control over the value chain. The danger is that too many rapid policy shifts could weaken the investment confidence needed to build the very processing base Jakarta wants to protect.

ICJ Climate Ruling Gains UN Backing as Oil Powers Push Back

International Court of Justice

ICJ climate ruling support has gained global political weight after the UN general assembly adopted a resolution welcoming the court’s advisory opinion on states’ obligations to protect the climate system. The vote shows that climate policy is increasingly moving into legal and trade-risk territory.

The ICJ climate ruling is not legally binding, but it carries legal and moral authority that could influence future climate litigation. That makes it important for energy, mining, metals and industrial companies exposed to emissions, fossil fuels and transition-linked regulation.

The ICJ climate ruling was backed by 141 countries, including China. Only eight countries opposed the resolution, including the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s three largest oil producers.

The divide highlights a growing strategic split. Most countries are accepting stronger legal language around climate responsibility, while major fossil fuel producers are resisting efforts that could accelerate pressure on oil, gas and coal.

Climate Duties Move From Politics Toward Legal Risk

The UN resolution calls on member states to take all possible steps to avoid significant damage to the climate and environment. It also urges countries to follow through on their Paris Agreement commitments.

Vanuatu, which led the resolution, framed the issue as a matter of legal obligation rather than political discretion. That language is important because it gives climate policy a stronger legal foundation.

For industry, the risk is clear. Even if the advisory opinion is not binding, it may support future lawsuits, regulatory challenges and pressure on governments to tighten climate rules.

The resolution also reinforces earlier climate summit outcomes. It points to keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

That matters for metals demand. Stronger climate implementation supports long-term demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other materials tied to grids, renewables, batteries and electrification.

However, it also raises pressure on high-emission industrial sectors. Steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, mining and refining will face closer scrutiny over emissions, power sources and supply-chain transparency.

Oil Producers Resist While Finance Divide Remains

The opposition from the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia shows that fossil fuel producers remain wary of climate language that could constrain future energy policy. The US objected to the resolution, arguing that it included inappropriate political demands related to fossil fuels.

Russia also opposed the measure, saying the resolution risked making the ICJ opinion mandatory in nature and selectively used the advisory opinion and climate summit outcomes.

Several developing and fossil fuel-producing countries focused on another issue: finance. India, Iraq and Algeria abstained, arguing that the resolution placed too much emphasis on emissions cuts while not adequately addressing climate finance and adaptation support.

This dispute will remain central to future climate negotiations. Developing economies want funding to support decarbonisation, adaptation and industrial transition, while developed countries and climate-vulnerable states want faster action on emissions.

Brazil, the Cop 30 president, supported the resolution. Turkey, which will host Cop 31 in Antalya, abstained, while Australia supported the text but said that support should not be read as agreement with every part of the advisory opinion.

For industrial markets, the vote confirms that climate policy is not retreating. It is becoming more legal, more geopolitical and more connected to trade, finance and supply-chain decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UN vote turns climate responsibility into a stronger legal signal for governments and industry. For metals and mining, the opportunity is rising demand from electrification, but the risk is higher scrutiny over emissions, origin and financing.

Terrafame Scandium Recovery Study Could Create Europe’s First Domestic Supply

Terrafame

Terrafame scandium recovery plans could give Europe its only domestic scandium production source if a new project at the company’s Sotkamo operations in eastern Finland advances. The Finnish metals producer has launched a pre-feasibility study to assess scandium recovery from existing nickel and zinc production streams.

Terrafame scandium recovery would use the company’s current hydrometallurgical circuits, rather than requiring a standalone scandium mine. That gives the project a potentially lower-risk route because Terrafame already processes polymetallic ore and recovers multiple valuable metals.

Terrafame scandium recovery is strategically important because scandium supply remains extremely limited and heavily concentrated in China. Beijing controls around 85% of global supply and tightened export controls on the metal last year.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the project moves forward, Terrafame could target production in 2029.

Existing Circuits Could Lower Development Risk

Terrafame already produces battery-grade nickel, cobalt and copper. It also recovers uranium as a by-product from the same polymetallic ore system.

Adding scandium recovery to existing process streams could improve the value of Terrafame’s hydrometallurgical platform. It would also show how critical minerals can be extracted from established operations without developing entirely new mines.

This matters because scandium is usually produced in very small volumes as a by-product. Reliable recovery depends on chemistry, process control, impurity management and market qualification.

If successful, Terrafame could become a strategic supplier to European customers seeking non-China scandium. That would support supply-chain resilience for aerospace, aluminium alloys, solid oxide fuel cells and advanced materials.

The project also fits Europe’s wider critical raw materials agenda. The EU needs more domestic and allied sources of small-volume metals that support high-value industrial applications.

China Dominance Keeps Scandium Strategically Sensitive

Global scandium production remains limited at around 40-45 t/yr, while consumption reached about 60t in 2025. That small market size makes the supply chain highly sensitive to export controls and project delays.

China’s dominant position has increased interest in alternative sources. Export restrictions have made scandium more relevant to buyers that need secure material for advanced alloy and energy applications.

Several projects globally could increase supply over the next decade, including developments by NioCorp, Rio Tinto and Sunrise. Combined, these projects could lift global supply to 150-250 t/yr if they reach production.

That potential increase has raised some oversupply concerns. However, scandium demand may grow once buyers have more confidence in long-term availability.

This is a common problem for small critical materials markets. Customers hesitate to design around a material if supply is scarce, but producers struggle to invest before demand is proven.

Terrafame’s project could help break part of that cycle in Europe. A Finnish scandium source would not transform the market alone, but it could give manufacturers a more secure regional option.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Terrafame’s scandium study shows how Europe can extract more critical value from existing polymetallic operations. The opportunity is not only new mining, but smarter recovery of strategic by-products already moving through industrial circuits.

Weda Bay Power Shift Favors Aluminium as Nickel Pig Iron Margins Weaken

Weda Bay

Weda Bay power shift plans could redirect electricity from nickel pig iron smelters toward aluminium production in Indonesia’s Weda Bay Industrial Park. The move shows how power allocation is becoming a strategic production tool when aluminium margins exceed nickel margins.

Weda Bay power shift discussions involve scaling back output at 22 NPI smelting operations in June. Market sources said the power would be redirected to Juwan, the park’s sole operating aluminium facility.

Weda Bay power shift strategy reflects changing metal economics. NPI producers are under pressure from higher nickel ore costs and weaker margins, while aluminium smelters are benefiting from firmer prices and Middle East supply concerns.

Juwan is a joint venture between Tsingshan and Xinfa, with nameplate capacity of 250,000 t/yr. The timing and scale of any NPI production cuts remain unclear.

Aluminium Margins Pull Power Away From NPI

The planned power reallocation highlights the importance of electricity in Indonesian metals production. Both NPI and aluminium smelting are power-intensive, so the most profitable metal can influence where electricity is directed.

Aluminium prices have strengthened because of supply disruption linked to the Middle East. The region accounts for about 9% of global aluminium output, making any disruption significant for global balance.

The LME aluminium cash official price rose to a four-year high of $3,767.50/t on 14 May before closing at $3,636/t on 18 May. These higher prices have improved aluminium smelting margins.

NPI margins are moving in the opposite direction. Rising nickel ore costs and weaker profitability have reduced the incentive to maintain full output at some Indonesian smelters.

This creates a clear commercial logic. If electricity is constrained or strategically controlled, producers may prefer to allocate power toward aluminium rather than lower-margin NPI.

NPI Cuts Could Tighten High-Grade Nickel Units

Any sustained reduction in Weda Bay NPI output could support nickel pig iron prices, especially for higher-grade material. Higher-grade NPI remains important for stainless steel producers that need nickel-rich blending units.

Demand for higher-grade NPI has stayed relatively firm because stainless mills are using more scrap. Greater scrap use can increase the need for higher-nickel inputs to balance melt chemistry.

The situation also shows how Indonesia’s nickel and aluminium industries are becoming increasingly connected through infrastructure. Power, ports, industrial parks and Chinese-backed investment now shape multiple metal supply chains at once.

Tsingshan is also building a new aluminium project at Weda Bay with designed capacity of 800,000 t/yr. The first 400,000 t/yr phase is expected to start by the end of this year or in early 2027.

That expansion could make power allocation even more important. If aluminium capacity grows while NPI margins remain weak, Weda Bay may increasingly prioritise aluminium production over nickel pig iron during periods of electricity constraint.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Weda Bay shows that Indonesia’s industrial parks are becoming flexible metal platforms, not single-commodity hubs. When aluminium margins beat NPI margins, electricity itself becomes the deciding raw material.

Nickel Ore Prices Fall as Philippine Supply Recovery Eases Feedstock Tightness

Philippine Nickel ore

Nickel ore prices have fallen as Philippine supply recovered after the monsoon season, while a correction in London Metal Exchange nickel weakened sentiment across the value chain. The decline shows how quickly seasonal ore flows can pressure feedstock markets when Indonesian buyers slow procurement.

Nickel ore prices for 1.3% grade material on a cif China basis dropped to 55-57 yuan/wmt on 14 May from 65-66 yuan/wmt on 26 March. The fall came even though LME nickel remained above late-March levels after briefly touching almost two-year highs earlier in May.

Nickel ore prices are important because ore often gives the earliest physical signal in the nickel chain. Unlike LME nickel, ore prices are less driven by financial flows and more directly tied to mine supply, port congestion, smelter demand and buyer inventories.

The current weakness reflects three forces moving together: Philippine mine supply is recovering, Indonesia is slowing purchases, and LME nickel has corrected after earlier policy-driven gains.

Philippine Supply Recovery Changes the Regional Ore Balance

The Philippines is entering its seasonal production recovery after monsoon-related disruptions. Mining activity in Surigao, the country’s main nickel ore hub, usually slows from November to March and rebounds from May.

Surigao accounts for around half of Philippine nickel ore output. As shipments recover, buyers have more nearby feedstock options, reducing the urgency that supported prices earlier in the year.

This seasonal pattern has become more important since Indonesia emerged as a major Philippine ore importer. Historically, Chinese buyers stocked up ahead of the rainy season and drew down inventories until supply returned. But Indonesia’s rising demand has added a second major pull on Philippine material.

The Philippines exported 55.22mn t of nickel ore in 2025. China took 72% of that volume, while Indonesia accounted for 18%.

Indonesia’s imports from the Philippines rose to 15.48mn t in 2025 from 9.55mn t in 2024. That growth was driven by tight domestic ore controls under Indonesia’s RKAB quota system.

Indonesia imported 1.41mn t of Philippine nickel ore in March, up sharply from both a year earlier and the previous month. But that buying momentum has now slowed as port bottlenecks and price uncertainty weigh on procurement.

Indonesia Bottlenecks and NPI Margins Pressure Demand

Most Philippine ore shipped to Indonesia moves to the Weda Bay industrial park. The site produced around one third of Indonesia’s total nickel supply in 2025, making it a major feedstock demand centre.

But Weda Bay has limited unloading capacity. Only two major berths handle nickel ore discharge, creating recurring congestion.

Some vessels that would normally unload within two days are waiting up to two weeks. That congestion reduces buyers’ willingness to secure additional cargoes, especially when prices are falling.

Indonesia’s revised ore pricing formula has also changed buyer behaviour. The new formula includes cobalt, iron and chromium values, raising raw material costs and adding uncertainty to procurement decisions.

Meanwhile, LME nickel’s pullback has started to pressure nickel pig iron prices. NPI prices had been relatively steady, supported by stainless steel demand, but softer benchmark prices are now weakening producer margins.

Lower margins can reduce production incentives for Chinese NPI producers. That, in turn, may reduce demand for nickel ore and extend downward pressure on feedstock prices.

Nickel sulphate prices have remained stable because tight supply has offset weak demand from the nickel-cobalt-manganese battery sector. But the ore market is moving faster because supply is returning and buyers are stepping back.

The short-term outlook remains soft. Rising Philippine availability, weaker LME sentiment and slower Indonesian buying are likely to keep nickel ore under pressure until the market finds a new floor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel ore prices are showing that Indonesia’s downstream expansion has made Philippine supply more strategically important. But when port bottlenecks, weaker NPI margins and seasonal supply recovery hit together, even tight Indonesian ore controls cannot prevent a feedstock correction.

Johnson Matthey PGM Outlook Points to Industrial Demand as Deficits Persist

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook shows that industrial demand will remain a key support for platinum group metals in 2026, even as automotive, investment and jewellery demand weaken. The recycler expects platinum, ruthenium and iridium markets to remain in deficit.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook also shows a split market. Palladium and rhodium may move into surplus as higher prices encourage more autocatalyst recycling, while mine supply remains constrained.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook is strategically important because PGMs sit across automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen, hard disks, jewellery and industrial processes. Demand is changing, but the metals remain deeply embedded in high-value manufacturing.

The report suggests that PGM markets are not moving in one direction. Industrial demand is resilient, recycling is recovering, mine supply is under pressure, and vehicle technology choices are reshaping long-term consumption.

Recycling Rises as Mine Supply Remains Constrained

Autocatalyst recycling increased in 2025 after a long period of weak collection. Low PGM prices had discouraged recycling, while high vehicle costs led consumers to keep cars longer.

Higher PGM prices have now started to unlock hoarded material across the supply chain. Johnson Matthey expects secondary supply to rise by 8% as vehicle scrappage rates improve.

This recycling growth could support palladium and rhodium availability. Both metals are heavily linked to internal combustion engine catalysts, and higher recovered supply may push those markets into surplus.

Mine supply remains less responsive. Johnson Matthey expects PGM mine supply to fall because of lower South African production and a 10% decline in palladium output from Norilsk Nickel.

Producers remain cautious about greenfield projects and mine expansions despite higher basket prices. The industry needs confidence in future prices, not only current price strength, before committing capital.

This is especially important in South Africa. Platinum dominates the country’s PGM production mix, so sustained strength in platinum prices could eventually support investment. But palladium and rhodium remain exposed to the long-term decline of combustion engine demand.

Data Centres, Hydrogen and Electronics Support Industrial PGMs

Ruthenium remains one of the tightest PGM markets. Its deficit reached nearly 300,000oz in 2025, equal to almost a quarter of annual consumption.

Demand from chemicals, electronics and data centre-related hard disk production has strengthened ruthenium use. Strategic buying, especially in China, has also tightened market conditions.

Chinese export controls on ruthenium and ruthenium-containing materials have reduced supply availability outside China. This makes ruthenium a more sensitive critical mineral for industrial buyers.

Data centre construction for artificial intelligence is increasing demand for hard disks that use platinum and ruthenium. Wider electronics and electrical applications also remain supportive, with PGM use in those sectors rising by 8% in 2025 to 1.25mn oz.

Iridium demand is expected to rise slightly because of green hydrogen projects in Europe. This supports its deficit outlook, although hydrogen demand still depends on project execution and electrolyser deployment.

The US-Iran war adds uncertainty. Petrochemical demand for PGMs could weaken if Middle East oil and gas operations remain disrupted, while higher feedstock and operating costs may pressure industrial users.

The conflict could also affect vehicle demand. Higher fuel prices may push consumers toward electrified vehicles, but the impact on PGMs depends on the technology mix. Battery electric vehicles reduce PGM use, while hybrids still require catalysts.

Johnson Matthey expects automotive PGM demand to fall by 4% in 2026, broadly in line with lower global internal combustion engine production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PGMs are entering a more selective demand cycle. Palladium and rhodium face pressure from recycling and combustion-engine exposure, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium are gaining support from industrial, data-centre and hydrogen-linked demand.

Global Recycled Metals Output Rises as China and Emerging Regions Expand Capacity

Recycled Metals

Global recycled metals output increased further in 2025 as China maintained its leading position and emerging regions expanded recycling capacity. Production of recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc reached about 59.2mn t, up 5.6% from a year earlier.

Global recycled metals output is becoming more important to non-ferrous supply security as mining, processing and trade flows face rising geopolitical and cost pressures. Recycling now provides a larger secondary source of industrial metal units for manufacturers, smelters and battery supply chains.

Global recycled metals output accounted for around 34% of total non-ferrous metal production in 2025. The sector also delivered cumulative savings of about 1.2bn t of primary mineral resources, underlining its growing role in resource conservation.

The growth shows that recycled metals are no longer a secondary environmental story. They are becoming a core part of industrial raw material strategy across copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and battery metals.

China Leads as Regional Recycling Capacity Expands

China remained the world’s largest recycled base metals producer in 2025, with output of 20.57mn t. That represented 34.7% of global production.

The country’s scale gives it a major role in recycled copper, aluminium, lead and zinc supply. It also strengthens China’s position across non-ferrous metals at a time when primary raw material security is under pressure.

Europe produced more than 10mn t of recycled base metals, while the US produced more than 6mn t. India and southeast Asia reached around 6mn t and 4mn t, respectively.

These figures show that recycling capacity is becoming more geographically distributed. Emerging regions are no longer only consumers of recycled raw materials. They are becoming processing centres in their own right.

Battery-related recycling is also growing quickly. Nickel, cobalt and lithium recovery is supporting the new energy industry as electric vehicle and energy storage supply chains look for more secure material sources.

China aims to increase domestic recycled material recovery to 23mn t by 2030 under its next five-year plan. That target implies annual growth of around 7%.

The country is also expected to strengthen recycled product certification and explore the inclusion of recycled materials in carbon trading systems. This could make recycled metal more valuable for customers seeking traceable and lower-carbon supply.

Trade Flows and Technology Move Toward Asia

Global recycled raw material trade is becoming more regional, more Asia-focused and more diversified. Europe and North America remain major exporters of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock.

Europe exports around 2mn t/yr of recycled copper and aluminium feedstock, while North America exports about 4.2mn t/yr. China and India remain the largest importers, with imports exceeding 4mn t and 2mn t, respectively.

Southeast Asia is becoming a key transshipment hub. Regional recycled aluminium feedstock trade reached about 1.3mn t of imports and 900,000t of exports.

Black mass from spent lithium-ion batteries is also increasingly moving toward Asian processing centres. This reflects Asia’s stronger battery materials processing base and growing demand for recovered nickel, cobalt and lithium units.

Technology is improving the recycling value chain. Advances in laser sorting, intelligent dismantling, multi-metal battery recovery and digital process control are raising recovery rates and product quality.

Leading producers have achieved recycling rates above 94% for aluminium and 95% for lithium. These levels show how recycling is moving closer to industrial-grade resource recovery rather than simple scrap handling.

New products are also expanding. High-strength recycled aluminium alloys, high-purity recycled copper and recycled rare-earth permanent magnets are gaining traction.

This matters because recycled metal must meet customer specifications before it can displace primary material. Better sorting, cleaner chemistry and stronger certification will determine how much recycled metal can enter high-value applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recycling is becoming a strategic metals supply pillar, not just a sustainability tool. The next competitive edge will come from producers that can turn complex scrap and battery waste into certified, high-purity and customer-ready materials.

Aperam Recycling North America Names Evan Dyal as New Chief Executive

Aperam Recycling

Aperam Recycling North America will move into new leadership on 1 July as Evan Dyal succeeds Chris Niles as chief executive of the company’s regional operations. The appointment places a long-serving ELG Metals USA executive at the head of Aperam’s North American recycling platform.

Aperam Recycling North America is strategically important because stainless steel producers increasingly rely on high-quality scrap flows to manage costs, improve circularity and support lower-carbon production. Leadership continuity matters in a market where scrap sourcing, customer relationships and alloy knowledge are critical.

Dyal is currently general manager of Aperam Recycling’s Mobile, Alabama, location. He has spent more than 18 years with Aperam subsidiary ELG Metals USA, giving him deep operational experience in specialty metals recycling.

Chris Niles will leave the company after 25 years. His departure marks a leadership transition for a business tied closely to stainless steel, nickel-bearing scrap and specialty alloy supply chains.

Leadership Continuity Supports Stainless Scrap Strategy

Aperam’s choice of Dyal signals a preference for internal continuity. Recycling operations depend heavily on supplier networks, material knowledge and disciplined quality control.

This is especially important in stainless steel recycling. Scrap streams can contain nickel, chromium, molybdenum and other valuable alloying elements, making accurate sorting and processing essential.

North American stainless scrap supply remains strategically valuable as mills seek more recycled units and lower-carbon feedstock. Processors that can secure clean, reliable and specification-ready scrap will remain important to stainless producers.

Dyal’s Mobile experience gives him direct exposure to yard operations, logistics, supplier management and customer requirements. That operational background should support Aperam Recycling North America as competition for quality scrap intensifies.

Commercial Role Strengthens Regional Customer Focus

Aperam also promoted Andres Montes to chief commercial officer of North America. Montes currently leads specialty sales for the region.

The appointment adds commercial focus alongside the leadership change. Specialty sales are important because stainless and alloy scrap markets require close coordination between processors, mills, traders and industrial customers.

This matters as recycling becomes more central to metals procurement. Buyers increasingly want traceable scrap supply, reliable chemistry and stable delivery into melt shops.

For Aperam, strengthening North American leadership and commercial coverage supports its broader circular metals strategy. The company’s recycling platform can help secure feedstock, improve value capture and support lower-emission stainless production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s leadership change is small in size but meaningful in direction. Stainless steel recycling is becoming more strategic, and experienced operators with alloy scrap knowledge will matter more as mills compete for cleaner recycled feedstock.

Danantara Weda Bay Nickel Stake Plan Signals Stronger Indonesian Control

Weda Bay Nickel

Danantara Weda Bay Nickel stake interest signals Indonesia’s push to increase domestic participation in strategic nickel assets. The sovereign investment agency is considering acquiring Eramet’s stake in Weda Bay Nickel after discussions with president Prabowo Subianto.

Danantara Weda Bay Nickel stake talks remain at an early stage, with no final decision made. But the move shows that Jakarta wants stronger local ownership in assets central to its electric vehicle battery supply chain strategy.

Danantara Weda Bay Nickel stake interest comes as Indonesia continues to use policy, quotas and state-backed entities to shape the nickel value chain. The country wants to capture more value from mining, processing and downstream battery materials.

Weda Bay Nickel is located in North Maluku and has operated under a special mining permit since 2019. It is one of Indonesia’s most important nickel ore assets.

Domestic Participation Becomes a Strategic Priority

Danantara could position itself as a strong local partner in Weda Bay Nickel. That role would support Indonesia’s broader effort to increase national participation in critical mineral assets.

Eramet currently holds around 37.8% of the project. China’s Tsingshan owns about 51.2%, while state-controlled Aneka Tambang holds roughly 10%.

This ownership structure already reflects Indonesia’s nickel strategy. Foreign capital and Chinese processing expertise have helped build the sector, but Jakarta is now seeking greater domestic influence over key assets.

A Danantara investment would not only change ownership. It could also strengthen state-linked oversight of production, ore allocation and downstream integration.

For Eramet, the talks come at a sensitive time. The company has already faced pressure after Weda Bay Nickel’s 2026 RKAB production quota was cut sharply.

RKAB Quota Cut Raises Nickel Supply Uncertainty

Eramet confirmed in February that Weda Bay Nickel’s 2026 RKAB quota was reduced by 70% to 12mn wet metric tonnes. That cut has made the asset’s production outlook more uncertain.

The quota reduction matters because Indonesia’s downstream nickel capacity depends on stable ore supply. Smelters, high-pressure acid leach plants and battery-material producers need consistent feedstock to maintain output.

Weda Bay Nickel is a key part of that supply chain. Any change in ownership, production quota or operating strategy can affect ore availability and regional nickel pricing.

Indonesia is trying to balance several goals at once. It wants more state participation, higher domestic value capture, stronger downstream processing and continued investor confidence.

Danantara’s potential entry could help align Weda Bay Nickel more closely with national policy. But it may also raise questions for foreign partners about operating certainty and long-term control.

The nickel market should watch whether the talks progress from early-stage discussions into a formal transaction. If Danantara moves ahead, it would mark another step in Indonesia’s shift from attracting foreign nickel investment to actively reshaping ownership of strategic assets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Danantara’s interest in Weda Bay Nickel shows that Indonesia’s nickel strategy is entering a more state-directed phase. The key risk is whether greater domestic control can improve supply-chain resilience without unsettling the foreign capital and technical partners that built the sector.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

NAS Stainless Mill Expansion Strengthens Acerinox’s US Growth Strategy

Acerinox

NAS stainless mill expansion has started operations, giving Acerinox a stronger production base in the US stainless steel market. The Spanish stainless steel and high-performance alloys producer said the expansion at North American Stainless in Kentucky began at the start of 2026.

NAS stainless mill expansion will add 308,000 short tons per year of capacity. This lifts the mill’s annual run rate to 1.85mn short tons from its previous 1.54mn st/yr base.

NAS stainless mill expansion had been delayed from the end of 2025 because of crane repair and revamp work at the site. The start-up now gives Acerinox more exposure to a US market it sees as more stable and attractive than Europe.

The project reinforces Acerinox’s investment preference. The company said US finished stainless base prices have been more stable than European prices, which remain affected by severe swings and the historic lows reached in mid-2023.

US Stainless Market Shows Signs of Recovery

US apparent finished stainless demand fell by 11% year on year in the first quarter. However, demand improved by 5% from the previous quarter, supporting Acerinox’s view that US orders have recently strengthened.

US stainless inventories are now 7% below the historical average and appear stabilised. Deliveries have also grown in recent months, suggesting that the market may be moving beyond the weakest part of the cycle.

North American Stainless operated at an 80% utilisation rate in the quarter, excluding the new expansion. That implies quarterly stainless production of around 308,000st.

The expansion gives Acerinox more leverage if US demand continues to recover. Higher capacity at NAS can support customers in appliances, construction, automotive, energy, industrial equipment and infrastructure applications.

The US market also offers a more attractive pricing environment for Acerinox. Compared with Europe, where stainless producers have faced deeper price volatility, the US provides a clearer platform for investment and margin stability.

Aerospace and Gas Turbines Support High-Performance Alloy Outlook

Acerinox’s high-performance alloys division faced weaker demand from oil and gas and chemical processing customers. Geopolitical uncertainty has slowed investment in those sectors, reducing near-term demand for specialty alloys.

However, the company expects stronger aerospace demand to support Haynes International, a key part of its high-performance alloys business. Aerospace remains an important market for nickel-based and specialty alloys used in engines, structures and high-temperature components.

Industrial gas turbines are another potential growth driver. Demand from AI data centres could support turbine investment as power infrastructure becomes a bottleneck for digital expansion.

This matters because AI data centres require reliable electricity, backup generation and grid reinforcement. That can increase demand for high-temperature alloys used in turbine blades, combustion systems and other demanding energy equipment.

Acerinox’s strategy now has two clear pillars. It is expanding stainless capacity in the US through NAS while positioning high-performance alloys around aerospace and energy infrastructure growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox is using the US market as its growth anchor because stainless pricing and demand visibility remain stronger than in Europe. The NAS expansion also shows how specialty metals producers are aligning investment with aerospace, data-centre power demand and more resilient regional markets.