Johnson Matthey PGM Outlook Points to Industrial Demand as Deficits Persist

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook shows that industrial demand will remain a key support for platinum group metals in 2026, even as automotive, investment and jewellery demand weaken. The recycler expects platinum, ruthenium and iridium markets to remain in deficit.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook also shows a split market. Palladium and rhodium may move into surplus as higher prices encourage more autocatalyst recycling, while mine supply remains constrained.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook is strategically important because PGMs sit across automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen, hard disks, jewellery and industrial processes. Demand is changing, but the metals remain deeply embedded in high-value manufacturing.

The report suggests that PGM markets are not moving in one direction. Industrial demand is resilient, recycling is recovering, mine supply is under pressure, and vehicle technology choices are reshaping long-term consumption.

Recycling Rises as Mine Supply Remains Constrained

Autocatalyst recycling increased in 2025 after a long period of weak collection. Low PGM prices had discouraged recycling, while high vehicle costs led consumers to keep cars longer.

Higher PGM prices have now started to unlock hoarded material across the supply chain. Johnson Matthey expects secondary supply to rise by 8% as vehicle scrappage rates improve.

This recycling growth could support palladium and rhodium availability. Both metals are heavily linked to internal combustion engine catalysts, and higher recovered supply may push those markets into surplus.

Mine supply remains less responsive. Johnson Matthey expects PGM mine supply to fall because of lower South African production and a 10% decline in palladium output from Norilsk Nickel.

Producers remain cautious about greenfield projects and mine expansions despite higher basket prices. The industry needs confidence in future prices, not only current price strength, before committing capital.

This is especially important in South Africa. Platinum dominates the country’s PGM production mix, so sustained strength in platinum prices could eventually support investment. But palladium and rhodium remain exposed to the long-term decline of combustion engine demand.

Data Centres, Hydrogen and Electronics Support Industrial PGMs

Ruthenium remains one of the tightest PGM markets. Its deficit reached nearly 300,000oz in 2025, equal to almost a quarter of annual consumption.

Demand from chemicals, electronics and data centre-related hard disk production has strengthened ruthenium use. Strategic buying, especially in China, has also tightened market conditions.

Chinese export controls on ruthenium and ruthenium-containing materials have reduced supply availability outside China. This makes ruthenium a more sensitive critical mineral for industrial buyers.

Data centre construction for artificial intelligence is increasing demand for hard disks that use platinum and ruthenium. Wider electronics and electrical applications also remain supportive, with PGM use in those sectors rising by 8% in 2025 to 1.25mn oz.

Iridium demand is expected to rise slightly because of green hydrogen projects in Europe. This supports its deficit outlook, although hydrogen demand still depends on project execution and electrolyser deployment.

The US-Iran war adds uncertainty. Petrochemical demand for PGMs could weaken if Middle East oil and gas operations remain disrupted, while higher feedstock and operating costs may pressure industrial users.

The conflict could also affect vehicle demand. Higher fuel prices may push consumers toward electrified vehicles, but the impact on PGMs depends on the technology mix. Battery electric vehicles reduce PGM use, while hybrids still require catalysts.

Johnson Matthey expects automotive PGM demand to fall by 4% in 2026, broadly in line with lower global internal combustion engine production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PGMs are entering a more selective demand cycle. Palladium and rhodium face pressure from recycling and combustion-engine exposure, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium are gaining support from industrial, data-centre and hydrogen-linked demand.

Implats PGM Output Holds Steady as Zimbabwe Strength Offsets South African Pressure

Implats

Implats PGM output remained broadly stable in the first half of its 2026 financial year, showing how diversified production can protect group performance even when key South African mines weaken. Total group 6E production rose by just 0.8pc to 1.798mn oz, while managed operations increased by 1pc year on year. As a result, Implats PGM output held close to last year’s level despite clear pressure at several individual assets.

This stability matters because the platinum group metals market is entering a more sensitive phase. Global PGM prices have strengthened over the past six months, supported by tight mine supply, resilient demand, and stronger precious metals sentiment under geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, even near-flat production from a major producer like Implats carries significance for the wider market.

The performance also highlights a familiar regional divide. South African operations at Rustenburg and Marula both posted declines, while Zimbabwean output at Zimplats expanded strongly. Meanwhile, Impala Canada saw lower output because of planned tapering. Consequently, Implats PGM output now reflects a portfolio where growth outside core South African assets is becoming more important.

Zimbabwe PGM Growth Is Supporting Group Stability

Zimbabwe PGM growth provided the strongest positive contribution in the period. Zimplats lifted 6E production by 13pc year on year to 317,000oz, making it the clearest bright spot in the group’s first-half results. That increase helped offset weaker output from South African mines and lower volumes in Canada. As a result, Zimbabwe continues to strengthen its role inside the Implats production base.

This shift matters because South African PGM production is no longer carrying the group as comfortably as before. Rustenburg production fell by 2pc to 888,000oz, while Marula declined by 4pc to 97,000oz. These are not catastrophic drops, but they reinforce the operational pressures still facing mature South African mining assets. Therefore, Zimbabwe PGM growth is not just helpful. It is increasingly strategic.

The contrast also reflects a broader industry theme. Investors and market participants are paying closer attention to which PGM producers can hold volumes steady without relying too heavily on aging or more difficult assets. In that context, Implats PGM output looks more resilient because its growth is not coming from one region alone. Meanwhile, a more balanced geographic mix can improve flexibility if operating conditions worsen elsewhere.

Global PGM Prices Are Improving the Revenue Picture

Global PGM prices are now giving producers a more supportive revenue environment. Implats reported sales revenue of R33,250 per 6E oz sold, up 39pc year on year. The improvement came mainly from a stronger US dollar PGM basket price, although some of that benefit was offset by the appreciation of the South African rand. Consequently, earnings leverage is improving even when production growth remains limited.

That revenue uplift is important because PGM producers have spent several years operating under uneven price conditions and cost pressure. When output growth is limited, stronger basket prices become even more valuable. Therefore, the latest pricing backdrop may matter more for profitability than the near-flat production number alone.

The next question is whether price support can last. Tight mine supply and steady demand are constructive, but PGM markets are still highly sensitive to macro conditions, auto-sector demand, and investor sentiment toward precious metals. As a result, Implats enters the second half with a more favorable price environment, but not without risk. Even so, the combination of steady Implats PGM output and higher realized prices puts the group in a firmer position than the headline production number might suggest.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Implats did not deliver dramatic production growth, but that may not be the most important part of this result. What matters more is that the company held volumes steady while price conditions improved and Zimbabwe delivered real support. In the current PGM market, stable output with stronger basket pricing can be more valuable than chasing marginal volume growth.

PGM Technology Partnership Targets New Demand Beyond Catalytic Converters

Sibanye-Stillwater

The PGM technology partnership between Johnson Matthey, Sibanye-Stillwater, and Valterra Platinum signals a serious push to build new platinum group metals demand beyond traditional auto catalysts. The three companies will work on a multi-year, multi-million research and development programme covering the full PGM basket. The goal is to move new ideas from research to commercialisation. As a result, the PGM technology partnership could become one of the most important demand-side initiatives in the sector.

This matters because platinum group metals demand still depends heavily on catalytic converters for internal combustion engines. That market remains large, but electric vehicles are steadily taking share. Producers and refiners therefore need new end uses that can support long-term balance across platinum, palladium, rhodium, and the wider basket. Therefore, the PGM technology partnership is not just a research collaboration. It is a strategic response to a changing demand structure.

The mix of partners also gives the programme unusual weight. Sibanye-Stillwater and Valterra are major South African mining players, while Johnson Matthey brings refining, recycling, and advanced materials capability. That combination improves the odds that new PGM applications can move beyond lab work and into real industrial markets. Consequently, the PGM technology partnership has more commercial credibility than a typical standalone innovation announcement.

New PGM Applications Could Open Demand in Hydrogen, Electronics, and Advanced Materials

New PGM applications are central to the entire programme. The companies said they will explore uses in clean hydrogen, emissions detection and reduction, electronic materials, and high-performance alloys. These are not fringe categories. They are all large industrial themes with room for higher-value materials adoption. As a result, new PGM applications could help widen the demand base beyond automotive exposure.

Hydrogen is especially important in that context. PGMs already play a role in several hydrogen-related technologies, and deeper commercial penetration could create a more durable growth market. Electronics and advanced materials also matter because they can support more specialized and higher-margin uses. Therefore, the PGM technology partnership is aimed at sectors where technical performance can justify premium metal value.

The emphasis on the full basket is also notable. The programme is not focused on only one metal or one application family. That reflects a broader industry need to improve supply and demand balance across multiple PGMs at the same time. Meanwhile, it suggests the partners are thinking in portfolio terms rather than chasing one headline technology.

PGM Innovation Strategy Reflects a Bigger Industry Shift

PGM innovation strategy is becoming more urgent as the auto market evolves. Around 60pc of global PGM supply still goes into catalytic converters. That share remains important today, but it cannot be the only long-term demand pillar. Producers now need stronger growth channels that can absorb metal units in a more diversified way. Consequently, the PGM technology partnership reflects a much wider strategic shift across the industry.

This also matters for South Africa’s mining sector. Major PGM producers need a healthier long-term demand profile if they want more stable pricing and investment conditions. New applications can help support that by reducing dependence on a single dominant sector. Therefore, PGM innovation strategy is not just about technology leadership. It is also about future market resilience.

The comment from Sibanye-Stillwater’s chief executive makes that clear. The focus is on the entire basket and on creating a better supply-demand balance. That is ultimately the core commercial purpose of the programme. As a result, the PGM technology partnership should be viewed as a demand-defense strategy as much as an innovation platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership matters because the PGM industry can no longer rely on catalytic converters alone to carry long-term demand. The most interesting part is not that the companies announced research. It is that miners, refiners, and recyclers are now aligning around commercialization. If this expands with more partners, it could become a real turning point for PGM demand strategy.

Jubilee Chrome and PGM Production Rises on Q4 Partnerships

Jubilee PGM

South Africa’s Jubilee chrome and PGM production rose strongly in the April–June quarter. The company leveraged third-party ore partnerships to lift chrome concentrate output. Jubilee chrome and PGM production now tilts toward chrome-driven revenues.

Chrome volumes surge on partnerships

Chrome volumes surged as Jubilee expanded supply partnerships. Q4 chrome concentrate reached 505,578 tonnes, up nearly one fifth year on year. Full-year output rose 25 percent to 1.55 million tonnes. Third-party ore supplied about 70 percent of chrome concentrate production. These agreements underpin scale and reduce feed variability.

PGM output rises, tailings feed grows

PGM output also improved, supported by tailings from chrome processing. Quarterly production climbed 14.6 percent to 8,973 ounces. Full-year PGM output rose 6 percent to 38,579 ounces. Tailings integration enhances recoveries and capital efficiency.

Pricing dynamics shifted earnings sensitivity toward chrome. A one percent chrome price drop needs a 4.5 percent platinum price rise to offset. In Q4, chrome prices fell 11.4 percent, but platinum rose 33 percent. Therefore, stronger platinum partly cushioned chrome weakness. Jubilee chrome and PGM production remains exposed to both markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s partnership model accelerates growth with limited capital. However, portfolio risk now concentrates around chrome price cycles and third-party feed security. Securing long-term ore and hedging exposures would stabilize cash flow through volatile PGM and chrome swings.

Sibanye-Stillwater and Glencore Expand Chrome Recovery Partnership in South Africa

Sibanye-Stillwater

Agreement Targets Higher Chrome Output and Lower Costs as PGM Prices Slide

Sibanye-Stillwater has expanded its chrome delivery and production partnership with Glencore-Merafe, aiming to boost chrome recovery at its South African operations. The agreement, announced by Merafe Resources, builds on a prior 2011 deal initially struck with Lonmin, which Sibanye acquired in 2019.

Under the updated terms, Glencore-Merafe—a joint venture between Glencore and Merafe Resources—will take over operational control of most of Sibanye-Stillwater's chrome recovery plants (CRPs). This move is expected to streamline chrome recovery processes, increase feed rates, and improve yield efficiency while lowering operational costs.

Chrome Gains Importance as PGM Prices Fall

Chrome ore, a by-product of platinum group metal (PGM) mining, has become increasingly vital to PGM producers amid declining PGM prices. With this partnership, Sibanye-Stillwater aims to strengthen its revenue base by enhancing chrome output.

The updated deal will accelerate deliveries under the original contract and support expanded production. As PGM margins narrow, chrome has emerged as a key contributor to sustaining profitability across Sibanye-Stillwater’s mining portfolio.

Ferro-Chrome Market Pressure Triggers Strategic Review

Despite the focus on growth, Merafe is currently reviewing its ferro-chrome smelting operations due to weak global prices. The firm, which produced 301,000 tonnes of ferro-chrome in 2024, may close certain furnaces to adapt to the challenging market conditions.

Nevertheless, this expanded agreement positions Glencore-Merafe and Sibanye-Stillwater to maximize the value of existing chrome resources. It reflects a broader strategy among miners to diversify revenue streams and reduce exposure to volatile PGM markets.

Eastplats PGM Output More Than Tripled in 2025 as Chrome Production Surged

Eastplats

Eastplats PGM output more than tripled in 2025 as Eastern Platinum increased production from its South African platinum group metals and chrome operations. Total output of 6E PGMs rose to 24,365oz, up from 8,113oz in 2024.

The increase showed a stronger operational recovery at Eastplats after a low production base in the previous year. PGM concentrate production also rose by 59% on the year to 5,146t, supported by higher activity at the company’s Crocodile River Mine.

Eastplats PGM output growth was accompanied by a sharp rise in chrome concentrate production. Chrome concentrate output climbed to 82,120t in 2025, up 353% from 18,118t a year earlier, giving the company a broader production recovery across both PGMs and chrome.

Crocodile River Mine Supported Higher Production and Revenue

Crocodile River Mine became a key contributor to Eastplats’ improved production profile in 2025. Higher output and stronger sales helped the company increase mine operating income to $1.7mn, up 113% from 2024.

The fourth quarter also showed better operating momentum. Eastplats reduced its fourth-quarter net loss by almost 40% on the year to $7.5mn, mainly because of increased revenue from higher sales and stronger production at Crocodile River Mine.

However, the company still reported a full-year net loss of $18.4mn, compared with a $12.8mn loss in 2024. The wider loss reflected expenses tied to the Mareesburg project, an open-cut PGM mining development in northeastern South Africa.

The result shows the split between operational improvement and project-related financial pressure. Eastplats improved production and mine-level income, but development spending continued to weigh on bottom-line performance.

Zandfontein Ramp-Up Could Lift 2026 Run-of-Mine Volumes

Eastplats plans to ramp up its Zandfontein underground operation in 2026 after the initial restart phase became fully operational last month. The company also plans to increase run-of-mine production by 40,000 t/month in the first half of 2026.

This ramp-up could strengthen Eastplats PGM output if underground production stabilises and feeds consistent concentrate volumes. It could also improve operating leverage if higher volumes spread fixed costs across more material.

The chrome production increase also matters strategically. Chrome concentrate gives Eastplats additional exposure to stainless steel raw material markets, while PGMs remain linked to autocatalysts, hydrogen technologies, electronics, industrial catalysts and specialty applications.

For South Africa’s PGM sector, Eastplats’ growth shows that smaller producers can still improve output despite difficult industry conditions. However, profitability will depend on sustained production discipline, project cost control and market conditions for platinum, palladium, rhodium and chrome.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eastplats’ 2025 results show a company moving from recovery toward ramp-up, but not yet into clear profitability. The next test will be whether Zandfontein can convert higher run-of-mine volumes into stronger cash generation without adding another layer of cost pressure.

Nornickel Nickel Output Holds Flat as Copper and PGM Production Decline

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel output was broadly stable in the first quarter, while the Russian multi-metals producer reported lower copper and platinum group metal production from a high year-earlier base. Consolidated nickel production edged up by 0.3% on the year to 41,746t in January-March.

Nornickel nickel output stability contrasts with weaker copper, palladium and platinum volumes. Copper output fell by 10% to 98,679t, palladium production dropped by 18% to 608,000oz, and platinum output declined by 24% to 136,000oz.

Nornickel said the lower copper and PGM figures reflected a high production base in the first quarter of 2025 and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance.

The result shows that Nornickel nickel output remains comparatively steady, while quarterly copper and PGM figures can move sharply because of timing, ore processing patterns and product shipment schedules.

Nickel Stability Supports Core Production Outlook

Nickel remains one of Nornickel’s most important products because of its role in stainless steel, high-performance alloys, batteries and industrial manufacturing. Stable first-quarter output suggests that the company’s core nickel operations remain within its planned production range.

Nornickel kept its 2026 Russian feedstock guidance unchanged at 193,000-203,000t for nickel. This indicates that the company does not currently view the flat first-quarter result as a signal of operational weakness.

The nickel market remains sensitive to supply from Russia because Nornickel is a major producer of high-grade material. Even when global nickel markets face oversupply from Indonesian growth, Russian nickel still has strategic relevance for stainless steel, alloy and battery-linked consumers.

Copper showed a weaker quarterly result. Output from the company’s own Russian feedstock, excluding Trans-Baikal, totalled 80,000t during the period.

However, the Bystrinsky copper project in the Trans-Baikal division performed better. Copper in concentrate output rose by 6% on the year to 18,545t, supported by higher ore processing volumes and higher metal content in ore.

This improvement at Bystrinsky partly offsets the wider copper decline. It also shows the importance of ore grade and processing throughput in quarterly copper performance.

Nornickel maintained its 2026 Russian feedstock copper guidance at 336,000-356,000t. Guidance for Trans-Baikal copper in concentrate also remained unchanged at 69,000-73,000t.

PGM Decline Reflects Timing Rather Than Guidance Change

Nornickel’s platinum group metals output fell sharply in the first quarter, but the company did not adjust its full-year forecast. Palladium output fell by 18%, while platinum declined by 24%.

The company attributed the weaker figures to a high comparison base and quarterly timing effects in commercial products. This suggests the decline may not translate directly into lower full-year supply.

Nornickel kept its 2026 palladium guidance at 2.415mn-2.465mn oz and platinum guidance at 616,000-636,000oz. These metals remain important for automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen technologies, jewellery and industrial applications.

The PGM market remains highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa playing major roles in primary supply. Any sustained change in Russian production can therefore influence availability, trade flows and customer procurement strategies.

For buyers, the first-quarter data point to the need to separate operational weakness from quarterly timing. Lower reported output can affect sentiment, but unchanged guidance suggests Nornickel expects production to normalise across the year.

The broader strategic issue remains Russian supply exposure. Nornickel’s metals are important to global nickel, copper and PGM supply chains, but geopolitical risk, sanctions compliance and trade route uncertainty continue to shape how buyers handle Russian-origin material.

The first-quarter result therefore carries a mixed message. Nickel output remained stable, Bystrinsky copper improved, and full-year guidance was unchanged. However, lower copper and PGM production underline the importance of monitoring quarterly timing, product flows and operating consistency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s first-quarter figures suggest stability in nickel but greater quarterly volatility in copper and PGMs. For global buyers, the bigger issue is not only production volume, but how Russian-origin metals move through increasingly complex trade and compliance channels.

Closed-Loop Recycling to Slash PGM Demand by 40% in 2024, Industry Report Finds

Johnson Matthey

PGM Recycling Revolutionizes Metal Demand with Close to 60% of Platinum Group Metals Being Recycled

In 2024, platinum group metals (PGMs) demand will see a significant reduction of nearly 40% due to the rise in closed-loop recycling, according to a report from UK-based chemicals company Johnson Matthey. With over 60% of PGMs used in new products now coming from recycled metal, the shift towards circularity in the PGM industry is transforming how metals are sourced and used.

Understanding Closed-Loop vs. Open-Loop Recycling

Recycling PGMs is categorized into two pathways: open-loop and closed-loop. Open-loop recycling occurs mainly in consumer markets, where metal ownership is passed along with the product's lifecycle, allowing the metal to be reused for different purposes. In contrast, closed-loop recycling, which dominates industries like chemicals and pharmaceuticals, involves the original buyer maintaining ownership of the metal, reusing it for the same purpose throughout its lifecycle.

This process greatly reduces the need for new PGMs, as the original purchaser reclaims and reuses the metal. In fact, Johnson Matthey's research shows that a substantial 15.7 million troy ounces (toz) of PGMs were recirculated globally in closed-loop systems last year, cutting down the net demand for primary PGMs to 35.4 million toz in 2024.

PGM Recycling Shifts the Industry Landscape

Recycled PGMs, whether through closed or open loops, now make up the majority of materials used in new and replacement products. As primary mining becomes supplementary to the increasing urban PGM mines, it’s clear that recycling is becoming the backbone of the global PGM supply chain. The well-established closed-loop system has proved to be an efficient, sustainable model for metal recycling, potentially setting a precedent for other metals in the industry.

Ryan from Johnson Matthey highlighted that the long-established network of PGM recycling has reached economies of scope and scale through decades of market-driven optimization. This model could serve as a roadmap for other sectors, where the international approach to recycling has not yet reached similar maturity.

Recycling efforts should not be confined within national borders. To ensure efficiency, scrap must be collected and recycled globally, transcending domestic limitations. Ryan advocates for a broader, global collaboration to boost recycling effectiveness and reduce dependence on newly mined metals.

Implats PGM production falls as prices squeeze margins and reshape portfolio

Implats

Implats PGM production falls by 3pc to 3.55mn oz in FY2025 amid weak prices. The Implats PGM production falls theme also weighs on revenue and earnings. As a result, strategy pivots toward processing uptime while winding down Canada. The Implats PGM production falls narrative frames 2026 risks and recovery prospects.

Lower prices hit output, revenue and capex discipline

Implats reported FY2025 6E output down to 3.55mn oz. Prices stayed weak across platinum, palladium and rhodium. Therefore revenue slipped 1pc to R85.5bn. Headline earnings fell 70pc on the year. However, easing input inflation and a firmer rand reduced some cost pressure. Management cut full-year capex by about 50pc. The company cited constrained profitability and a soft rand PGM basket. Cash preservation remains a priority while markets rebalance.

Operations pivot: Rustenburg and Zimplats up, Canada winds down

Implats targets higher refined volumes at Rustenburg and Zimplats in FY2026. Improved processing availability should lift throughput and recoveries. Meanwhile, Canada faces a planned shutdown by May 2026. Low palladium prices drive the decision to close Impala Canada. Consequently, group mix shifts toward South African and Zimbabwean ounces. Portfolio risk tilts away from palladium exposure. The near-term focus stays on plant stability, metal accounting and unit cost control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The reshaped asset mix should soften palladium risk while leveraging Rustenburg and Zimplats reliability. Watch price elasticities: modest demand recovery or tighter mine supply could quickly swing basket margins. Execution on processing availability will decide whether FY2026 beats cautious guidance.

Sibanye-Stillwater and Glencore-Merafe Expand Chrome Partnership to Boost South African Output

Merafe Resources

New agreement strengthens chrome recovery and output efficiency amid weaker PGM and ferro-chrome markets

Chrome Deal Expansion Aims to Optimize South African Production

Sibanye-Stillwater has expanded its chrome delivery agreement with Glencore-Merafe, targeting increased chrome production from its South African operations. The updated agreement builds upon a 2011 contract originally formed with Lonmin, which Sibanye-Stillwater acquired in 2019. Glencore-Merafe, a joint venture between Glencore and Merafe Resources, will now take over operational control of most of Sibanye-Stillwater's chrome recovery plants (CRPs).

The deal is designed to accelerate chrome deliveries while increasing overall production volumes. Chrome ore, a by-product of platinum group metals (PGM) mining, is playing a larger role in producer revenues due to declining PGM prices. The new arrangement aims to improve plant feed, enhance recovery, and lower operating costs across Sibanye-Stillwater’s CRP network.

Ferro-Chrome Pressures Prompt Strategic Collaboration

Merafe Resources reported 301,000 tonnes of ferro-chrome output in 2024 but faces pricing challenges in the current market. As part of a strategic review announced in February, Merafe may close selected furnaces due to sustained low ferro-chrome prices. This chrome partnership with Sibanye-Stillwater presents an opportunity to mitigate margin pressure through operational efficiency and increased recovery of chrome by-product material.

The chrome produced from Sibanye-Stillwater’s PGM operations feeds directly into Glencore-Merafe’s ferro-chrome value chain, making the partnership critical for long-term supply reliability. Enhanced chrome recovery is expected to bring economic benefits to both parties and reduce resource waste.

As global stainless steel demand evolves, chrome and ferro-chrome remain vital to the supply chain. The success of this partnership may influence similar strategies across the Southern African region, where PGM and chrome operations are closely intertwined.

Nornickel 2025 Earnings Rise as PGM Prices and Asian Sales Support Growth

Nornickel

Nornickel 2025 earnings improved as stronger precious metals prices and higher sales volumes lifted results. Revenue rose 10pc to $13.76bn, while Ebitda increased 9pc to $5.67bn. Net profit climbed 36pc to $2.47bn. As a result, Nornickel 2025 earnings showed that stronger palladium and copper markets offset a weaker nickel environment.

This performance matters because the company is still adjusting to a very different trade map. Western sanctions have made payments, logistics, and equipment access more difficult. Nornickel responded by redirecting more sales to Asia, especially China. Therefore, Nornickel 2025 earnings were shaped not only by prices, but also by market reorientation.

Metal sales were the main earnings driver. Revenue from metal sales reached $12.98bn in 2025, supported by higher precious metals sales volumes and stronger prices for most metals except nickel. Consequently, palladium prices and Asian metals sales became central to the company’s latest financial improvement.

Asian Metals Sales Are Reshaping Nornickel’s Strategy

Asian metals sales are no longer a short-term response. They are becoming part of Nornickel’s longer-term industrial strategy. The company is exploring moving part of its copper smelting capacity to China by 2027. It is also deepening ties with Chinese buyers for battery and industrial materials. As a result, Nornickel 2025 earnings reflect a structural pivot as much as a cyclical recovery.

This shift matters because Asia now offers both demand and processing depth. China remains the largest consumer in several key metals markets. That gives Nornickel a clearer path to sustain volumes despite weaker western demand. Meanwhile, the company is trying to reduce its dependence on western equipment suppliers through modernization and local adaptation.

Nickel Market Surplus Still Limits the Full Upside

Nickel market surplus remains the biggest challenge in Nornickel’s portfolio. The company estimates global nickel supply reached 3.86mn t in 2025, above demand of 3.62mn t. That created a surplus of around 240,000t. Therefore, Nornickel 2025 earnings improved despite nickel, not because of it.

The outlook for copper and palladium looks more supportive. Copper demand continues to benefit from grid investment, renewable energy, and data center growth. Palladium markets also stayed broadly balanced, supported by automotive demand and hybrid vehicles. As a result, copper and palladium remain the more constructive parts of Nornickel’s earnings story.

Nornickel still plans to keep nickel output stable in 2026 at around 193,000-203,000t. That signals a focus on operational efficiency rather than aggressive expansion. Consequently, the company appears more focused on protecting margins and upgrading assets than chasing volume growth in an oversupplied market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel’s results show that the company is benefiting from stronger precious metals and smarter market redirection, even while nickel stays under pressure. The bigger story is strategic. Nornickel is gradually redesigning its trade and processing footprint around Asia while waiting for nickel fundamentals to improve.

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reshape markets as PGMs rally

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook signals a split market for base and precious metals. Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook highlights persistent nickel oversupply, but tighter copper after 2025. Meanwhile, the company points to a strong PGM rebound driven by investment flows.

Nickel surplus persists as Indonesian supply keeps rising

Indonesian supply growth keeps the nickel market in structural surplus. Nornickel expects global nickel output at 3.86mn t in 2025 and 4.1mn t in 2026. Indonesia accounts for more than 66% of total production in that outlook.

Demand rises, but it still trails supply growth. Nornickel sees demand at 3.62mn t in 2025 and 3.83mn t in 2026. As a result, the market could post a surplus above 200,000t in both years.

Prices stay near marginal conversion costs for class 1 material. LME three-month nickel traded around $15,000/t for much of the past 18 months. However, prices fell to $14,322.50/t in the latest session cited by Nornickel.

Copper tightens after 2025 as concentrates stay constrained and PGMs rebound

Copper tightness could intensify after 2025 as concentrate deficits deepen. Nornickel notes copper prices rose more than 30% through 2025 and broke above $11,500/t by early December. Meanwhile, Comex–LME arbitrage pulled metal into the US and tightened availability elsewhere.

Mine disruptions keep concentrate supply under pressure. Nornickel expects mined copper output at 23.4mn t in 2025 and 23.8mn t in 2026. Therefore, treatment charges stay stressed, with spot TCs cited around -$40/t.

Refined copper balances look fragile in 2025 and tighter in 2026. Nornickel projects refined supply at 27.7mn t versus demand at 27.6mn t in 2025. As a result, 2026 could slip into a small deficit at 28.3mn t supply and 28.4mn t demand.

PGM prices rebounded as investors returned after gold’s surge. Platinum rose about 20% to around $1,650/oz, while palladium climbed about 38% to around $1,550/oz. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and underinvestment keep primary supply trending lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nornickel nickel surplus and copper outlook reinforces a two-speed metals cycle for 2026 planning. Nickel needs production restraint, not demand hope, to rebalance. Therefore, copper and PGMs may carry the tighter risk premium across industrial supply chains.

Russian PGMs Continue Flowing to Europe via East Asia Despite Direct Import Declines

Russian PGMs Mining

Hong Kong and China Re-export Platinum and Palladium to Europe as Shortages Persist and Prices Stay Depressed

Russian Metal Flows Persist Despite Western Sanctions

Russian-origin platinum group metals (PGMs) continued entering European markets in 2024, despite significant declines in direct exports. Instead, the metal flowed indirectly via Hong Kong and China, both of which ramped up PGM exports after stockpiling Russian volumes in 2023–2024.

The UK, for instance, imported a quarter of Hong Kong’s 857,379 oz of platinum in the first eleven months of 2024—up 500% year-on-year, despite zero direct imports from Russia for two consecutive years.

Re-export Surge Undercuts African Suppliers

As the UK increased platinum imports via Asia, its platinum purchases from South Africa—the world’s largest platinum producer—fell 4% year-on-year. Market participants say rebranded Russian metal, sold at a discount, is undercutting South African supply in Europe.

Meanwhile, Switzerland absorbed most of Hong Kong’s 121,682 oz of palladium exports in 2024, sharply up from prior years. China’s palladium exports also jumped 87%, with half shipped to Switzerland, reinforcing the growing role of East Asia as a trade intermediary.

Global Deficit Grows as Output Shrinks

With supply tight, the EU and UK may continue to rely on these indirect Russian flows. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, platinum and palladium demand will remain robust through 2025, even as global production falls.

Non-Russian producers are scaling back: Sibanye-Stillwater announced job cuts at its U.S. palladium mine, and Impala Platinum may shut its Canadian Lac des Iles site early. Despite tightness, spot prices remain weak, limiting producer incentives to boost output.

Europe's Strategic Dilemma in PGM Supply

Palladium prices have plunged 57% in 2023, followed by another 36% drop in 2024, averaging $998/oz, per Johnson Matthey data. Although sanctions remain in place, Europe’s automotive and industrial sectors have few alternatives for essential PGMs.

Market insiders expect indirect Russian-origin PGM flows into Europe to persist in the medium term, particularly as Asia profits from discounted access. The gap between policy and procurement realities is widening, reinforcing the fragility of Europe’s critical metals strategy.

Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding strengthens African critical minerals pipeline

Ivanhoe Mines

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will inject fresh capital into one of Africa’s most important critical minerals portfolios. Ivanhoe Mines plans to raise $500mn from the Qatar Investment Authority through a 57.5mn share issue. As a result, the Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will support exploration, development and mining across copper, zinc, PGMs and other critical minerals in southern Africa.

Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding underpins growth after Kamoa-Kakula setback

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding gives the Canadian miner balance sheet strength at a sensitive moment. Ivanhoe will issue new shares at C$12 each, equal to about 4pc of its total equity. Therefore, the QIA secures a meaningful strategic foothold in a multi-asset African growth story.

Capital will help offset the impact of weaker guidance at the flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC. The project now expects 370,000–420,000t of copper in concentrate this year. This range is almost 30pc below the initial 520,000–580,000t outlook, after Ivanhoe suspended mining in some areas because of seismic activity. However, Kamoa-Kakula remains one of the world’s lowest-cost, largest-scale copper growth engines.

Funding supports broader African critical minerals portfolio

The Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding will not only stabilise Kamoa-Kakula but also advance other key assets. Ivanhoe intends to channel part of the proceeds into exploration and development of “critical minerals” across its portfolio. This portfolio includes copper, zinc, lead, germanium and platinum group metals.

In the DRC, the Kipushi mine has restarted as a zinc-copper-lead-germanium operation. The asset offers high-grade feed into markets sensitive to supply disruptions and ESG performance. Meanwhile, in South Africa, the Platreef project is moving toward first production in the fourth quarter. Platreef will add large-scale PGM, nickel and copper output, reinforcing Ivanhoe’s exposure to energy transition and automotive catalysts.

By backing this broader platform, the QIA diversifies beyond a single copper asset. Therefore, the Ivanhoe QIA $500mn funding represents a long-term bet on Africa as a core supplier of critical minerals. It also highlights the growing role of Gulf sovereign wealth in shaping mining capital flows.

The Metalnomist Commentary

QIA’s entry confirms Ivanhoe’s position as one of the most strategically important miners in the African copper and critical minerals space. The funding cushions near-term production setbacks while keeping long-dated projects like Platreef and Kipushi on track. Market participants should watch how quickly Ivanhoe converts this capital into stable output growth, especially as copper markets tighten and geopolitical competition for African resources intensifies.

Most South African Mineral Exports to US Avoid Tariff Impact

South African Mineral Mining

PGMs, Gold, and Titanium Spared in Latest US Tariff Round

Most of South Africa’s mineral exports to the US, including platinum group metals (PGMs), have been exempted from new US tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s 2 April tariff announcement excluded PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal from the list of affected imports.

These exemptions are significant, as PGMs accounted for 76% of the R65.3 billion ($3.4 billion) in mineral and precious metal exports from South Africa to the US in 2024. However, iron ore and diamonds from South Africa will be subject to a 30% tariff, potentially straining trade ties and impacting specific sectors.

Auto Tariffs Threaten Downstream PGM Demand

A separate 25% tariff on US vehicle imports came into effect on 6 June, with auto parts tariffs set for 3 May. According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), these tariffs may reduce US auto demand, which in turn could lower PGM consumption.

PGMs—especially platinum, palladium, and rhodium—are essential in autocatalysts that reduce vehicle emissions. Lower car production would decrease catalyst demand, causing short-term price volatility in these critical metals.

Still, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for PGMs, citing structural demand drivers in clean mobility and hydrogen.

Limited Retaliation Options for South Africa

Despite the exemptions, broader trade tensions could still hurt South Africa’s mining sector. South Africa ships 7% of its total exports to the US, while accounting for just 0.25% of US imports—a disparity that limits its ability to retaliate.

Think tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies emphasized the need for diversification, urging South African exporters to find alternative markets. With the global economy under pressure from rising trade barriers, the ripple effect could dampen overall commodity demand and GDP growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The exemptions granted to South Africa’s key mineral exports show strategic prioritization by the US to maintain critical supply chains. Yet, the indirect consequences—especially in sectors like automotive and high-tech—may eventually flow back to impact even exempted metals. The situation reinforces the need for South Africa to accelerate market diversification and downstream value-add strategies in mining.

Anglo American Q1 Copper Output Drops as Nickel Rises and Manganese Slumps

Anglo American

Anglo American's Q1 copper output declined 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tonnes due to planned production cuts in Chile. While Peru’s higher ore grades partially offset losses, the drop in Anglo American Q1 copper output reflects the company’s broader operational recalibrations in South America.

Copper Falls, Nickel Climbs Amid Strategic Asset Reallocation

Anglo American continues to manage regional output variability, with Peru boosting copper grades while Chile scaled back production. For 2025, the miner expects 690,000–750,000 tonnes of copper output. Meanwhile, nickel production rose 3% to 9,800 tonnes in Q1, thanks to stable operations at Brazil’s Barro Alto mine.

However, Anglo is preparing to exit the nickel sector altogether. It plans to sell its Brazilian nickel assets to China’s MMG later this year, signaling a strategic pivot amid shifting commodity markets and capital priorities.

Manganese and PGM Output Weaken on Weather and Suspension Impacts

First-quarter manganese ore output plummeted 60% year-on-year to 317,000 tonnes. The drop was tied to the suspension of Australian operations following cyclone damage in 2023. Sales are expected to resume in Q2 2025.

Platinum group metals (PGM) production also fell 17% to 696,000 ounces. Anglo American attributed the decline to reduced concentrate purchases and adverse weather at its Amandelbult mine in South Africa, where heavy rains impacted mined output.

Guidance Holds Steady Despite Operational Headwinds

Despite the declines in copper and manganese, Anglo American maintained its 2025 guidance. It forecasts 37,000–39,000 tonnes of nickel and expects export sales of manganese to resume shortly. The company continues to rebalance its portfolio amid market volatility, focusing on long-term asset optimization.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s mixed Q1 results underscore the volatility facing diversified miners. The drop in copper output aligns with a strategic slowdown, while stable nickel production—soon to be divested—hints at broader portfolio streamlining. Weather and logistics remain persistent risks across multiple assets.