Rivian Second-Life Battery Storage Project Links EV Packs to Grid Reliability

Rivian, Redwood

Rivian second-life battery storage is moving into commercial use after the US electric-vehicle maker agreed to deploy repurposed battery packs through Redwood Materials at its Normal manufacturing plant in Illinois. The project will use more than 100 used Rivian battery packs to provide 10 MWh of dispatchable battery energy storage.

The Rivian second-life battery storage project gives retired EV packs a second use before recycling. Redwood Materials will integrate the packs into a Redwood Energy system for on-site use at Rivian’s manufacturing facility.

Rivian second-life battery storage also reflects a wider shift in the battery value chain. Automakers and recyclers are looking for ways to extract more value from battery packs before recovering lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminium and other materials.

Redwood Turns Used EV Packs Into Stationary Storage

Redwood will receive EV battery packs from Rivian and convert them into a battery energy storage system for the Normal plant. The system will help reduce energy costs and support local grid reliability.

Second-life batteries are useful because EV packs can still retain meaningful capacity after vehicle use. They may no longer meet automotive performance requirements, but they can still serve stationary storage applications.

This creates a bridge between mobility and grid infrastructure. A battery pack can first support vehicle electrification, then provide stationary power, and later enter recycling for critical material recovery.

Redwood receives more than 20 GWh/yr of batteries, giving it a large feedstock base for both reuse and recycling. The company said it can deploy BESS projects in as little as six months, which matters as power demand rises quickly.

Data Center Power Demand Raises Storage Value

Rivian has attracted investors such as Google, which are seeking faster access to power solutions for artificial intelligence data center growth. This connection shows why second-life batteries are becoming more strategically relevant.

AI data centers need reliable, flexible and rapidly deployable power. Battery energy storage systems can help manage peak demand, improve resilience and reduce pressure on grids facing new large-load connections.

Repurposed EV batteries could become a lower-cost option where speed matters more than maximum energy density. They may also reduce waste and delay the need for immediate material recycling.

For the metals supply chain, this creates a more circular model. Battery materials stay in productive use longer, while recyclers build stronger long-term access to end-of-life packs and future recovered metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rivian and Redwood are showing how EV batteries can become grid assets before they become recycling feedstock. The strategic value lies in extending battery life, lowering storage costs and securing future material recovery in one integrated loop.

Taseko Florence Copper Project Starts Cathode Ramp-Up in Arizona

Taseko

Taseko Florence copper project has started producing copper cathode in Arizona, giving Canadian producer Taseko Mines its first commercial metal from the US in-situ copper development. The project’s solvent extraction and electrowinning plant started operations in mid-February and produced 1.5mn lb, or about 680t, of copper cathode in the first quarter.

The Taseko Florence copper project is important because it uses in-situ copper recovery rather than conventional open-pit mining. The process leaches copper underground and recovers it through solution flows before producing cathode through solvent extraction and electrowinning.

The Taseko Florence copper project offers a different supply model for the US copper market. It can reduce upfront capital intensity compared with traditional mining, but it depends on careful control of underground leaching, solution movement, grades and environmental performance.

Taseko previously targeted 40mn-50mn lb of copper output from Florence in 2026. The company expects production to rise to 80mn lb in 2027 as the project moves through ramp-up.

Florence Adds US Cathode Capacity With Lower Mining Intensity

Florence’s first cathode production marks a key operational step for Taseko. The project is now moving from construction and commissioning into the early stage of commercial production.

The in-situ recovery model gives Florence strategic relevance. It avoids large-scale excavation and instead relies on controlled leaching below ground, which can reduce surface disturbance and capital needs.

However, the method also requires disciplined technical execution. Operators must manage solution chemistry, wellfield performance, recovery rates and environmental controls to ensure the process remains stable.

Florence’s output will come as refined copper demand becomes increasingly tied to electrification, grid investment, data centres, electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing. US cathode supply is strategically important because refined copper availability affects wire, cable, power equipment and industrial users.

The project’s cost exposure also looks partly protected in the near term. Taseko said Florence will not face the sharp recent rise in sulphuric acid prices because its acid supply is locked under a fixed-price contract for this year.

That protection matters. Sulphuric acid has become a more sensitive cost input for copper leaching operations because Middle East disruption and tighter sulphur flows have lifted market concerns. A fixed-price contract gives Florence more cost visibility during its early ramp-up.

Gibraltar Output Jumps as Diesel Costs Add Pressure

Taseko’s established Gibraltar mine in British Columbia also delivered a stronger first quarter. Copper output rose to 30mn lb, or about 13,600t, up 50% from a year earlier.

The increase was supported by steadier grades and better recoveries. This suggests Gibraltar benefited from improved operating performance rather than only stronger throughput.

Molybdenum output also rose sharply. Gibraltar produced 717,000 lb, or about 325t, of molybdenum in the first quarter, up 113% from a year earlier.

Molybdenum by-product output can improve mine economics because it adds revenue beyond copper. It also links Gibraltar to special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-strength alloy demand.

Sales lagged production slightly because of shipping timing. This means some of the production benefit may flow through later, depending on shipment schedules and realized prices.

Cost pressure remains a risk. Taseko said higher diesel prices could add 10-15¢/lb to Gibraltar costs this year, equivalent to about $220-330/t.

Diesel exposure is important for open-pit mines because haulage, mobile equipment and site logistics rely heavily on fuel. If energy prices remain elevated, Gibraltar’s operating costs could rise even as production performance improves.

Taseko’s first-quarter update therefore shows two different copper stories. Florence is entering ramp-up as a new US cathode asset with fixed acid pricing, while Gibraltar is producing more copper and molybdenum but faces higher fuel-cost risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s update shows how copper supply growth is increasingly tied to project type and cost exposure. Florence offers a lower-mining-intensity US cathode route, while Gibraltar highlights the continuing importance of grade, recovery and diesel costs in conventional copper mining.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

Indium Phosphide Exports Become China’s New Chokepoint in AI Data Centre Supply Chain

AI data centre

Indium phosphide exports have become a strategic pressure point in the global AI data centre supply chain as China’s licensing controls delay shipments of a material essential for high-speed optical chips. The restrictions are exposing a new vulnerability in AI infrastructure: the physical materials behind silicon photonics and optical interconnects.

The issue has moved quickly from a specialist semiconductor concern to a high-level trade and industrial policy problem. Coherent, a key optical components supplier backed by Nvidia, warned in early May that indium phosphide shortages were already affecting the market. Its chief executive then joined a US business delegation to China as companies sought relief from export licence delays.

Indium phosphide exports matter because AI data centres are moving beyond copper-based interconnects. As AI workloads grow, hyperscalers need faster, lower-latency and more energy-efficient data transmission between processors, accelerators, switches and optical modules. Indium phosphide is one of the core materials enabling that shift.

The material is used in high-speed optical chips, lasers, detectors and photonic components. These devices support the optical links that move huge volumes of data across AI clusters. Without reliable indium phosphide substrates and wafers, the expansion of advanced AI data centre networks could slow.

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that critical materials policy is becoming more granular. Beijing no longer needs to restrict only rare earths or finished technology products. It can also influence upstream compounds, substrates and wafers that determine whether advanced semiconductor supply chains can scale.

Export Controls Expose a Hidden Bottleneck in Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics has become a critical technology for AI infrastructure because it allows data to move through light rather than electrical signals. This reduces energy use per bit and supports the bandwidth required by large AI systems.

But silicon photonics is not only a silicon story. The most advanced optical systems often require compound semiconductor materials such as indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride and germanium-based compounds. Indium phosphide is especially important for lasers and high-speed optical devices.

This creates a difficult supply chain problem. AI companies, hyperscalers and chipmakers are racing to scale optical modules, but one of the key substrate materials remains highly concentrated. China is the world’s largest indium producer, accounting for about 70% of global output in 2024.

That concentration became more serious after China introduced export restrictions on indium phosphide in February 2025. Since then, licence delays have created backlogs for companies that manufacture or source InP substrates from China.

AXT, one of the world’s largest indium phosphide substrate producers and a major supplier to Coherent, said export permits were its most significant challenge. The company manufactures most of its InP substrates in China and only received its first permits last June. It still faces a large order backlog.

The effect has spread beyond individual suppliers. Coherent, Lumentum, VPEC and LandMark Optoelectronics all sit inside the optical components ecosystem that depends on reliable substrate supply. When permit delays hit upstream InP material, the impact moves through wafers, chips, optical modules and AI data centre equipment.

Prices show the severity of the shortage. Since China introduced export restrictions, the average price of a 6-inch indium phosphide wafer has surged by 250% to about $5,000. That price increase reflects both physical scarcity and the strategic premium attached to non-disrupted supply.

The supply squeeze also comes at a time of aggressive photonics investment. Nvidia announced $2bn investments each in Coherent and Lumentum in March. Marvell Technology also moved into photonics through its acquisition of Celestial AI, reflecting stronger demand for optical technology in AI computing.

These investments show where the industry is heading. AI infrastructure needs optical interconnects to manage power, latency and bandwidth. But China’s indium phosphide controls mean that materials availability could become a gating factor for deployment.

Companies are trying to respond. Coherent plans to double its InP wafer capacity at its Texas plant this year and more than double it again by the end of 2027. US photonics firms are also seeking supply from non-Chinese producers such as Sumitomo Electric Industries.

However, capacity additions are slow. New substrate plants can take two to three years to bring online. Qualification cycles are also long because optical chipmakers cannot easily switch substrate suppliers without testing performance, reliability and consistency.

This makes the shortage difficult to solve quickly. Even if new capacity is announced, it may not arrive fast enough to meet near-term AI data centre demand. Meanwhile, many non-China producers already consume part of their own output internally, reducing the amount available to the broader market.

China’s Materials Chokepoint Strategy Strengthens Domestic Producers

China’s indium phosphide export controls are creating both pressure and opportunity. They restrict global supply, but they also support domestic Chinese substrate producers that are expanding capacity.

Yunnan Germanium, Guangdong Xiandao and Zhuhai Dingtai Xinyuan are among China’s leading domestic InP substrate players. Their role is becoming more important as Beijing uses materials controls to strengthen strategic leverage across semiconductor and AI supply chains.

Yunnan Germanium has already moved to expand. The company announced a 189mn yuan investment in April to raise production capacity to 450,000 single InP wafers annually. Its shipments of InP wafers rose by 74% in 2025, showing fast domestic market growth.

Guangdong Xiandao is also expanding through its subsidiary Guangdong Xianrui. The project is expected to produce 40 t/yr of indium phosphide crystals, which are used as raw material for substrates.

These investments fit a broader pattern. China is not only defending control over upstream critical materials. It is also building downstream processing capacity in higher-value compound semiconductor materials.

However, Chinese producers may not immediately solve the global shortage. Some are still seeking export approvals, and any overseas shipments may be limited. Domestic demand remains a priority, especially as China builds its own AI, optical communications and semiconductor ecosystem.

AXT

Supplier qualification creates another barrier. Companies such as Coherent and Lumentum are unlikely to switch easily from established suppliers. Coherent relies heavily on AXT, while Lumentum sources mainly from Sumitomo and JX Advanced Metals. New suppliers must pass demanding qualification cycles before they can enter critical optical chip supply chains.

This gives China’s export controls a long-lasting effect. Even if alternative suppliers exist, the market cannot instantly redirect demand. The bottleneck is not only production volume. It is qualified, high-quality, customer-approved substrate supply.

The strategic lesson is clear. AI supply chains are not only exposed to advanced chips, GPUs and packaging capacity. They also depend on a deep materials stack that includes indium, phosphorous chemistry, InP crystals, substrates, wafers, lasers, detectors and optical modules.

This is why indium phosphide exports have become so important. AI data centre buildouts need more optical links as clusters grow larger. Copper interconnects face limits in speed, distance and energy consumption. Photonics offers a solution, but only if the materials chain can scale.

For the US and its allies, the response will likely require more than emergency licence negotiations. It will require investment in indium recovery, InP crystal growth, substrate manufacturing, wafer capacity and long-term offtake agreements. It may also require strategic stockpiles for high-purity indium and compound semiconductor substrates.

The issue also strengthens the case for recycling and secondary recovery. Indium is often produced as a by-product, making primary supply difficult to expand quickly. Recovering indium from industrial scrap, displays, semiconductors and related waste streams could become more important if export controls persist.

For AI data centre developers, the risk is timing. Demand for optical modules is accelerating now, while new ex-China capacity may not fully arrive until 2027 or later. That mismatch could raise costs, delay deployments and intensify competition for qualified photonics suppliers.

The market may therefore see a split. Companies with secured InP supply will be better positioned to support hyperscaler demand. Companies exposed to licence delays, qualification bottlenecks or spot-market wafers may face higher costs and delivery risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that the AI race is becoming a materials race. The next bottleneck may not be only GPUs or power supply, but the compound semiconductor substrates needed to move data fast enough inside AI clusters.

Codelco Copper Performance Faces Review Under Chile’s Kast Administration

Codelco

Codelco copper performance will come under tougher scrutiny as Chile’s new administration prepares to review the state-controlled miner’s finances, management and operational execution. Economy and mining minister Daniel Mas said the government will take a “very critical look” at Codelco to ensure it remains a major national company.

Codelco copper performance matters because the company remains one of the world’s largest copper producers, with direct output of 1.3mn t in 2025 and 1.4mn t including its share in non-operated mines. Any operational weakness at Codelco has direct implications for Chile’s copper supply, fiscal revenue and global refined copper expectations.

Codelco copper performance has also become a political issue because the company faces rising debt, safety concerns and cost overruns at major mine-life extension projects. The shareholder review scheduled for 20 April will focus on areas requiring concrete measures to improve performance.

Debt, Cost Overruns and Mine Projects Drive Government Scrutiny

The Kast administration’s review will examine Codelco’s financial position, management quality, safety record and project execution. Mas pointed to cost overruns tied to the renovation of Codelco’s corporate offices in Santiago and major investments at Rajo Inca and Chuquicamata underground.

These projects are strategically important because they support mine-life extensions at core Chilean copper assets. However, overruns can pressure capital discipline at a time when copper producers already face higher costs, lower ore grades and more complex underground development.

Mas also highlighted Codelco’s debt burden. The company took on $8.7bn in debt to help finance around $7bn in contributions to the state between 2022 and 2025, creating tension between its role as a national revenue source and its need to reinvest in production stability.

Lithium Strategy Review Adds Another Layer to Codelco’s Role

The government also plans to review Chile’s national lithium strategy inherited from the previous administration. However, Mas said the Codelco-SQM lithium venture will have security to operate if all legal stages have been completed.

Chile’s comptroller general approved the joint venture in December 2025, which was regarded as the final condition for the deal. The transaction gives Codelco 50% plus one share in Nova Lithium, the joint venture with SQM.

Mas argued that Codelco’s 2025 profit of $2.4bn was not a pure copper result, because only $388mn came from copper sales. The rest came mainly from the fair value of the SQM-linked lithium acquisition, adding to debate over how Codelco’s performance should be measured.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s review of Codelco shows that national copper champions face rising pressure to prove operational discipline, not only resource ownership. The bigger issue is whether Codelco can fund copper renewal, manage lithium expansion and still deliver fiscal value to the state.

 

Argentina Glacier-Protection Reform Opens New Path for Copper Mining

Argentina glacier

Argentina glacier-protection reform has cleared the lower house, creating a major legal shift for the country’s copper industry. The reform allows provinces to decide which glaciers are functionally important to water resources and which areas may be opened to mining.

The approval followed senate backing on 27 February and passed the lower house late on 8 April by 137 votes to 111. President Javier Milei strongly supported the bill, making official promulgation likely.

Argentina glacier-protection reform could unlock copper resources located along the Andes, where many advanced projects overlap with glaciated areas. Supporters argue the change will reduce legal uncertainty and allow provinces to regulate their own natural resources.

Copper Projects Gain New Resource Expansion Potential

Argentina’s copper industry has remained underdeveloped despite a large resource base. The country holds 116mn t of copper resources, but exported only $4bn of the metal last year, far below Chile’s $50bn in copper sales.

The reform could materially change that outlook. Argentina’s 20 most advanced copper projects represent a combined $21.9bn in investment and may now be able to expand resource bases inside previously restricted glacier perimeters.

The mining secretary has forecast that Argentina could produce more than 1.5mn t/yr of copper by 2035, equal to 6.1% of global output. That target now looks more plausible if legal access improves and the government strengthens its large-investment incentive regime.

Argentina glacier-protection reform therefore comes at a critical moment for copper markets. Global demand from grids, electrification, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure needs large new projects, and Argentina is one of the few jurisdictions with major undeveloped copper potential.

Water Security Backlash Raises Political Risk

The reform has triggered strong opposition from environmental groups, lawmakers and parts of the public. Critics argue that easing glacier protections could threaten Argentina’s water security, especially because glacier meltwater supports rivers and agricultural systems.

Greenpeace activists protested outside the lower house in Buenos Aires and warned that the reform could open the way to damaging much of Argentina’s glacial environment. Opponents say drinking water reserves should not be exposed to mining risk.

Supporters of the reform insist that provinces will not permit mining on glaciers that are vital to water resources. However, implementation will depend on how provinces define “functional” and “non-functional” glaciers in practice.

This creates a new layer of project risk. Copper developers may gain legal opportunity, but they will still need political acceptance, environmental credibility and clear provincial rules to move projects into construction.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina glacier-protection reform could become one of the most important copper policy changes in Latin America. The opportunity is large, but the social licence risk is equally serious if water security concerns are not managed with transparency and science.

Cobre Panama Stockpiled Ore Approval Gives First Quantum Limited Copper Recovery Path

First Quantum

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing has been approved by Panama’s government, giving First Quantum Minerals a limited route to recover copper from material mined before the project was shut down. The approval allows removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore from the closed copper mine.

The site will process about 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing roughly 70,000t of recoverable copper. First Quantum said the work will use existing crushers, conveyors and flotation circuits, with initial processing running at about one-third of nameplate capacity.

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing does not restart mining. The company said the work will not involve new mining, drilling or blasting, making the approval a controlled processing decision rather than a full mine reopening.

Stockpile Treatment Reduces Environmental and Economic Pressure

The approval gives Panama and First Quantum a practical way to manage material already sitting at the site. Processing the stockpiled ore could reduce environmental risks linked to long-term storage while generating royalties and other payments for Panama.

First Quantum plans to spend about $250mn on preparation, mainly to rebuild inventories and supply chains. The company is also rehiring about 1,000 workers, raising the site workforce to around 3,000 across processing, maintenance, environmental work and logistics.

The move follows earlier permits to ship stranded copper concentrate and restart a 300MW coal plant at the site. Panama linked these steps to easing the economic impact of the mine’s closure.

Copper Supply Impact Remains Limited Without Mine Restart

Cobre Panama was a major global copper asset before its closure in 2023. The mine produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply, before protests and a supreme court ruling forced the shutdown.

The closure removed close to 40% of First Quantum’s revenue, increasing the company’s dependence on copper operations in Zambia and smaller nickel and gold output. Processing Cobre Panama stockpiled ore will provide some near-term value, but it cannot replace the output of a fully operating mine.

First Quantum dropped a $20bn arbitration claim last year to allow talks with Panama’s government to resume. However, Panama has made clear that stockpile treatment does not resolve the mine’s long-term future. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Panama’s decision is a compromise between environmental management, economic recovery and political caution. Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing may release some copper, but the real supply question remains whether one of the world’s major copper mines can ever return under a new legal framework.

GLE Alloys Stainless Nickel Yard to Open in Pennsylvania in May

GLE Scrap Metal

GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard development will give GLE Scrap Metal a dedicated platform for stainless steel and nickel processing in Pennsylvania. The full-service recycler plans to open the new non-ferrous yard in May through its newly created subsidiary, GLE Alloys.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard is being built on 10 acres along the Monongahela River in Braddock. The site will include a dock for bulk barge loading, rail access, and about 80,000ft² of warehouse space.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard strengthens GLE’s position in higher-value alloy scrap. Stainless steel and nickel scrap require more specialized sorting, handling, chemistry control, and logistics than ordinary ferrous scrap, making the new facility strategically relevant for mills, processors, and alloy consumers.

River, Rail and Warehouse Access Strengthen Scrap Logistics

The Braddock site’s logistics infrastructure is central to the project’s value. Barge loading on the Monongahela River gives GLE Alloys access to bulk movement, while rail access improves shipment flexibility for larger volumes.

The warehouse space also supports better material control. Stainless and nickel scrap often need segregation by grade, alloy family, and chemistry before shipment to consumers.

Braddock’s industrial location adds further relevance. The area is also home to US Steel’s Mon Valley blast furnace operations, placing GLE Alloys inside a long-established metals corridor with existing industrial infrastructure.

GLE Expands Beyond Regional Recycling Into Alloy Processing

GLE Scrap Metal already operates six recycling facilities in Florida and Michigan. The company also runs a copper wire processing plant in Ocoee, Florida, and has an aluminum wire and URD wire processing facility through sister company Mallin Companies in Kansas City.

The creation of GLE Alloys shows a more focused move into specialty scrap. Stainless steel and nickel-bearing materials are tied to stainless mills, superalloy producers, foundries, aerospace supply chains, energy equipment, and industrial manufacturing.

GLE has appointed James Merrills as commercial director and Tom Kaikis as operations director for the new subsidiary. Their stainless and nickel experience should support customer development, material sourcing, and operational discipline as the facility ramps up.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GLE’s Braddock investment shows that alloy scrap is becoming a more specialized and logistics-driven business. As nickel and stainless supply chains look for reliable secondary feedstock, yards with chemistry control, storage capacity, and multimodal transport will gain strategic value.

LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

Chengtun DRC Copper-Cobalt Project Stake Expands China’s Overseas Resource Push

Chengtun Mining

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project investment will give the Chinese mining company an indirect 30% interest in a designated mining asset in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal strengthens China’s overseas copper resource strategy as domestic smelting demand continues to rise.

Chengtun Mining’s wholly owned subsidiaries Hongsheng International Resources and Preeminence Holdings signed the agreement with Abu Dhabi-based Novel Mining and Services and its subsidiary Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment. Under the deal, Preeminence will acquire 50% of Nkoyi for $300mn.

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project exposure is strategically important because the DRC remains one of the world’s key copper and cobalt supply regions. The project’s technical assessment indicates an average copper grade of 1.66% and an associated cobalt grade of 0.67%.

DRC Asset Adds Copper and Cobalt Feedstock Optionality

The acquisition gives Chengtun access to a copper-cobalt asset at a time when Chinese firms are increasing control over upstream mineral resources. This reflects a wider push to secure feedstock for China’s expanding smelting, refining and battery materials sectors.

The companies plan to negotiate binding agreements covering mineral processing and product sales after the initial transaction documents are completed. These future agreements will determine how project output moves into downstream supply chains.

Chengtun expects mine and processing construction to take around 18 months, followed by a 24-month ramp-up period to full capacity. The company has not disclosed expected annual copper output, leaving the project’s full market impact unclear.

China’s Smelting Demand Drives Overseas Copper Ownership

China copper resource ownership is becoming more important as domestic refined copper output continues to grow. China’s refined copper production rose by 9% on the year in January-February, increasing pressure on companies to secure stable concentrate and mine supply.

The DRC has become a central region for Chinese copper and cobalt investment. Its high-grade copper resources and cobalt by-product value make it strategically attractive for companies exposed to both electrification and battery material demand.

The Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project deal shows that Chinese companies are still willing to deploy capital into African mining assets despite infrastructure, political and execution risks. For China, the priority remains long-term feedstock security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chengtun’s DRC investment shows that China’s copper strategy is moving further upstream. As smelting capacity expands, control over mine supply will become just as important as processing scale.

Leapmotor Flex-Fuel REEV Targets Brazil’s Ethanol-Based EV Market

Leapmotor

Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV development in Brazil marks a new attempt to adapt electric vehicle technology to local fuel economics. The Chinese automaker will develop what it describes as the world’s first flex-fuel range-extended electric vehicle, capable of using both gasoline and ethanol.

The project reflects Brazil’s unusual position in global mobility. The country has a large flex-fuel fleet, broad ethanol availability, and a consumer base that often chooses fuel based on pump economics.

Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV technology will be integrated into the C10 model, currently the only range-extended electric vehicle marketed in Brazil. The existing C10 uses a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine as a range extender, but the new version will be tailored to Brazil’s ethanol-heavy market.

Brazil’s Ethanol Market Changes the REEV Value Proposition

REEVs are driven only by electric motors. Their batteries can be charged externally or supported by an internal combustion engine that works only as a generator, extending driving range without directly powering the wheels.

In most markets, the range extender uses gasoline. In Brazil, however, ethanol changes the economics because sugarcane-based ethanol is widely available and often cheaper than gasoline.

That gives the Leapmotor flex-fuel REEV a more localized cost advantage. Drivers could benefit from electric propulsion while using ethanol to extend range when charging access or travel distance becomes a concern.

Brazil already uses hydrous ethanol as a standalone fuel and gasoline blended with 30% anhydrous ethanol. This makes flex-fuel technology familiar to consumers and gives Chinese automakers a clear route to adapt electrified vehicles to local driving habits.

Chinese Automakers Localize Electrification Through Stellantis

Leapmotor’s plan follows a wider trend among Chinese automakers entering Brazil with localized hybrid and electric technologies. BYD and GWM have also been developing flex-fuel plug-in hybrid vehicles for the market.

Leapmotor’s international expansion is supported by Stellantis, which gives the Chinese brand a manufacturing and market access platform outside China. Stellantis said the C10 and the all-electric B10 will be produced at its factory in Pernambuco, in northeastern Brazil.

This production plan matters because Brazil’s EV market is still shaped by price, charging infrastructure, fuel availability, and local manufacturing policy. A flex-fuel REEV could reduce range anxiety while maintaining the operating-cost advantage that supports electrified vehicle adoption.

For the materials supply chain, the model still supports demand for batteries, copper, aluminium, power electronics, electric motors, and related components. However, it also shows that electrification pathways may differ by market rather than following a single global battery-only route.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Leapmotor’s Brazil strategy shows that electrification will not look the same in every market. In countries with strong biofuel infrastructure, flex-fuel range extenders could become a bridge between EV adoption, local fuel economics, and battery supply constraints.

Korea Zinc US Assets Deal Secures America’s Only Primary Zinc Smelter

Korea Zinc

Korea Zinc US assets expansion has advanced after Nyrstar sold its East Tennessee and Mid Tennessee mining complexes and the Clarksville smelter to the South Korean metals producer. The transaction gives Korea Zinc direct control of key zinc mining and smelting infrastructure in the US.

The sale was first announced in December and was completed after regulatory and governmental approvals. Financial details were not disclosed.

Korea Zinc US assets now include the Clarksville smelter, which Nyrstar described as the only primary zinc smelter in the US. That makes the transaction strategically important for domestic zinc supply, industrial resilience and future non-ferrous processing capacity.

Clarksville Smelter Strengthens Domestic Zinc Supply

The Clarksville smelter gives Korea Zinc an established operating base in the US zinc market. Zinc remains essential for galvanizing steel, construction, infrastructure, automotive production, energy systems and manufacturing.

Trafigura will continue to sell Clarksville’s zinc metal and supply concentrate and oxide to the operation through the end of 2026. This transition arrangement should help maintain operational continuity while Korea Zinc prepares its broader investment strategy.

The Tennessee mining complexes also add upstream relevance. Control of mining assets and smelting infrastructure gives Korea Zinc a stronger position across feedstock access, processing and finished metal supply.

Korea Zinc Plans Larger Non-Ferrous Smelting Platform

Korea Zinc has already outlined a much larger US ambition. The company announced plans in December to build a $7.4bn smelter on the acquired, fully permitted sites through a joint venture with the US defense and commerce departments.

The planned facility would produce 13 non-ferrous products. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, followed by phased production from 2029, starting with zinc, lead and copper.

The new smelter is expected to process 1.1mn t/yr of raw materials and produce 540,000 t/yr of finished products. If delivered, the project would significantly expand US non-ferrous processing capacity and support domestic supply chains for strategic industrial metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Korea Zinc’s acquisition is more than a zinc transaction. It positions a major Asian smelter inside the US industrial base at a time when domestic processing capacity has become a strategic priority.

Hindustan Copper Concentrate Plant Approval Supports India’s Copper Expansion Plan

Hindustan Copper

Hindustan Copper concentrate plant development moved forward after India’s state-owned Hindustan Copper approved construction of a new 3mn t/yr processing facility at the Malanjkhand Copper Project in Madhya Pradesh. The decision strengthens India’s effort to increase domestic copper mine output and improve concentrate processing capacity.

The company approved the proposal on 30 March and plans to award the engineering, procurement and construction order to Ardee Engineering. The project is expected to take more than 27 months and cost Rs4.695bn, or about $50.24mn.

Hindustan Copper concentrate plant investment matters because India’s copper demand is rising with grid expansion, renewable energy, electric vehicles, construction, electronics and industrial manufacturing. More domestic concentrate capacity could reduce pressure on imported copper units and support India’s wider minerals security strategy.

Malanjkhand Project Becomes Core to HCL’s Growth Strategy

The Malanjkhand Copper Project is central to Hindustan Copper’s production expansion plan. HCL currently produces around 4mn t/yr of ore and aims to raise capacity to 12.2mn t/yr by the fiscal year ending March 2031.

The new Hindustan Copper concentrate plant is expected to improve processing efficiency as ore output rises. This is important because mine expansion only creates value if processing capacity can convert additional ore into usable concentrate.

Ardee Engineering’s EPC role gives the project a defined execution route. However, the schedule of more than 27 months means the plant will support medium-term supply growth rather than immediate copper availability.

Domestic Copper Capacity Gains Strategic Importance

India’s copper supply chain remains strategically important as the country expands power infrastructure, manufacturing and clean-energy deployment. Copper is essential for transmission lines, transformers, motors, electronics, electric mobility and industrial equipment.

The Hindustan Copper concentrate plant also fits India’s broader push to develop more domestic mineral capacity. HCL plans to expand and reopen other mines over the next five years, which could strengthen the country’s upstream copper base.

Still, India’s challenge is not only mining more ore. It must align mining, concentration, smelting, refining and recycling capacity to build a more resilient domestic copper value chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HCL’s Malanjkhand investment is a practical step toward reducing India’s dependence on external copper supply. The real impact will depend on whether mine expansion, processing capacity and downstream refining move together over the next five years.

Kamoa Kakula Copper Guidance Cut Highlights DRC Supply Recovery Risk

Kamoa Kakula

Kamoa Kakula copper guidance has been lowered for 2026 after seismic shocks forced Ivanhoe Mines to drain and rebuild parts of the complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Canadian miner now expects the asset to produce 290,000–330,000t of copper in 2026, down from its previous target of 380,000–420,000t.

The cut also affects the medium-term outlook. Ivanhoe’s 2027 target of 380,000–420,000t remains below the mine’s pre-shutdown guidance of 500,000–540,000t, although the company still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

Kamoa Kakula copper guidance matters because the project is one of the most important growth assets in the global copper pipeline. Any slower recovery from the complex affects expectations for DRC copper supply at a time when electrification, grid investment and industrial demand continue to support long-term copper consumption.

Seismic Damage Raises Costs and Delays Copper Recovery

Ivanhoe’s revised guidance shows how quickly geotechnical risk can affect large underground copper operations. The need to drain and rebuild the mine has delayed the return to earlier production targets and increased the cost of the recovery path.

Kamoa Kakula’s cash costs are now expected at $2.60–$3.00/lb this year and $2.10–$2.50/lb in 2027. That is higher than earlier expectations of around $2/lb, reflecting the combined impact of disruption, rebuilding work and inflation across key inputs.

The wider DRC copper belt remains one of the fastest-growing copper regions in the world. The country lifted output by 10% to 3.4mn t last year, but rapid growth still depends on reliable acid supply, power, transport and mine-site execution.

Sulphuric Acid and Lobito Rail Shape DRC Copper Economics

Sulphur and sulphuric acid costs remain a major pressure point for DRC copper producers. A squeeze in Middle East sulphur flows pushed delivered sulphur prices close to $900/t into Kolwezi, increasing acid costs for leaching operations.

Ivanhoe’s new smelter could reduce some of this exposure. The smelter began producing anodes and sulphuric acid late last year and could add up to 700,000 t/yr of acid once it reaches steady operation.

Transport capacity is another constraint. The first low-carbon anodes moved out of Kamoa Kakula through the Lobito corridor in February, but available rail freight still falls short of the complex’s full logistics needs.

These bottlenecks show that DRC copper growth depends on more than orebody quality. Acid integration, rail access and underground transport capacity will decide how quickly Kamoa Kakula can return to higher output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s guidance cut shows that the copper market cannot treat DRC growth as risk-free supply. Kamoa Kakula remains a world-class asset, but seismic recovery, acid costs and logistics will determine how fast its tonnes return to market.

Michigan BESS Projects Approved to Support Grid Reliability and Data Center Growth

Michigan BESS Projects

Michigan BESS projects received regulatory approval on 27 March, adding 1,332MW of battery energy storage capacity to support grid reliability, renewable power integration and large-load electricity demand. The Michigan Public Service Commission approved six battery energy storage system projects across two major demand areas.

Three of the Michigan BESS projects will provide a combined 1,000MW to support DTE Electric’s integrated resource plan. That plan calls for adding 15,000MW of solar and wind generation in Michigan, making storage capacity essential for balancing intermittent renewable output.

The remaining three projects, totalling 332MW, will support a 1,383MW data center being developed by Green Chile Ventures, an Oracle subsidiary. The storage assets are intended to improve reliability and reduce costs for customers as data center electricity demand rises.

Battery Storage Becomes Critical for Renewable Grid Planning

Battery energy storage systems are becoming a core part of Michigan’s clean power buildout. DTE Electric’s 1,000MW of approved storage will be tied to 20-year tolling agreements, giving the utility more flexibility as solar and wind capacity expands.

This matters because renewable power growth requires fast-response assets that can shift electricity from periods of high generation to periods of high demand. BESS projects can also reduce strain on the grid during peak periods and support more reliable power delivery.

Michigan BESS projects therefore represent more than a backup power investment. They are part of the infrastructure needed to make renewable generation useful at scale and to protect grid stability as electricity demand grows.

Data Center Demand Adds a New Storage Growth Channel

The data center-linked BESS projects show how artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure are reshaping power markets. Green Chile Ventures must develop 1,383MW of energy storage to match the contracted demand of its data center project.

The approved 332MW is only the first phase of that requirement. Green Chile Ventures will bear the costs over 15 years, while DTE Electric will develop, own and operate the facilities.

This structure highlights a wider market trend. Data centers need faster power access, and battery storage can help bridge the gap between project timelines, grid constraints and customer affordability concerns. Michigan already hosts 74 data centers, with Detroit accounting for 32, making power infrastructure an increasingly important competitiveness factor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Michigan BESS projects show that battery storage is becoming essential infrastructure for both renewable energy and AI-driven data center growth. The next bottleneck will not only be battery supply, but also transformers, grid equipment, copper, aluminium and permitting capacity.

Codelco Copper Output Stabilises as Middle East Crisis Raises Cost Risk

Codelco

Codelco copper output stabilised in 2025, but rising energy, diesel, reagent and logistics costs linked to the Middle East crisis could complicate the company’s recovery path. Chile’s state-owned copper producer reported a 0.5% increase in copper output to 1.33mn t, while total attributable production reached 1.44mn t.

The modest improvement showed that Codelco copper output has started to recover after several years of operational pressure. However, the company still faced mixed performance across major divisions, including lower output at El Teniente, Chuquicamata and Gabriela Mistral.

Codelco copper output is expected to rise only slightly in 2026 to 1.331mn–1.357mn t. That guidance highlights the limited pace of supply growth at one of the world’s most important copper producers, even as demand from grids, electrification and industrial investment remains structurally strong.

Fuel and Sulphuric Acid Costs Threaten Copper Margins

The Middle East crisis is creating a new cost risk for copper producers. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists, higher diesel prices, tighter logistics and rising input costs could feed directly into mining cost structures.

Diesel is a key cost driver for haulage, power generation, processing and mine-site operations. Market participants estimate that copper mining costs can rise by 5–10% for every $50/bl increase in oil prices, making fuel volatility a direct margin threat.

Sulphur supply is another concern because it is used to produce sulphuric acid for copper leaching. This risk is especially acute for hydrometallurgical producers in the African Copperbelt, but higher global acid costs could still affect broader copper market sentiment.

Codelco’s own cost base was already rising before the latest geopolitical shock. Direct cash costs increased 4.8% to $2.09/lb in 2025, while total costs rose 14% to $3.73/lb because of higher operating activity, exchange-rate effects and inflation.

Stable Output Masks Deeper Structural Pressure

Codelco described 2025 as a year of stabilisation and productive transition. Ministro Hales lifted output by 25% to 153,000t, while Radomiro Tomic increased production by 9.2% to 295,000t.

However, several core assets remained under pressure. El Teniente output fell 13% to 310,000t, Chuquicamata declined 8% to 265,800t, and Gabriela Mistral dropped 20% to 82,000t.

The company also reported record capital expenditure of $5.07bn in 2025, showing the rising investment required to sustain production. Deeper deposits, lower ore grades and more complex operations are making copper supply more capital-intensive.

This reinforces the longer-term copper supply challenge. Even with stabilising production, Codelco’s guidance points to only incremental growth, while cost inflation could delay marginal projects and pressure higher-cost operations if the conflict continues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Codelco’s results show that copper supply risk is shifting from simple output loss to cost inflation and capital intensity. The market may still focus on tonnes, but diesel, sulphuric acid and project execution costs will increasingly decide how much copper supply can grow profitably.

Cobalt Blue Glomar Nodule Processing Deal Targets US Critical Minerals Supply

Glomar Minerals x Cobalt Blue 

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing plans have moved forward after Australian minerals processor Cobalt Blue signed an agreement with US deep sea miner Glomar Minerals to process seabed polymetallic nodules. The partnership will focus on testing whether nodules can become a reliable feedstock for critical metals including cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel and titanium.

The agreement gives both companies a pathway to assess processing feasibility before moving toward a larger industrial model. Pilot testing will take place at Cobalt Blue’s Broken Hill Technology Center in Australia.

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing is strategically important because deep sea nodules contain multiple metals needed for batteries, stainless steel, alloys, electrification and defense-related supply chains. The main challenge is not only resource access, but proving that the material can be processed efficiently, responsibly and at commercial scale.

Broken Hill Pilot Testing Will Define Recovery Potential

Cobalt Blue will test recovery feasibility from polymetallic nodules across several metal streams. The work will help determine how cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel, titanium and other metals can be separated and converted into usable products.

This processing step is critical for deep sea mining economics. Polymetallic nodules may offer metal diversity, but commercial value depends on metallurgical performance, recovery rates, processing cost and environmental controls.

The Broken Hill Technology Center gives the partnership a practical testing platform. If pilot results are successful, the companies can move from early feasibility work toward engineering a larger processing route.

US Facility Plan Highlights Deep Sea Supply Chain Ambition

Cobalt Blue and Glomar eventually aim to develop a commercial-scale polymetallic nodule processing facility in the US. The planned facility would have capacity of 200,000 tonnes per year.

Glomar holds exploration licences in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a North Pacific region known for significant polymetallic nodule deposits. That position gives the company potential access to a major seabed mineral resource base.

For the US, the project fits a broader effort to diversify critical mineral supply beyond conventional land-based mining. However, deep sea mineral development will still face technical, environmental, regulatory and financing scrutiny before it can become a meaningful supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing shows that deep sea mining is moving from resource promotion toward metallurgical validation. The real test will be whether seabed nodules can become a responsible and scalable feedstock for US critical minerals processing.