China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs to intensify in H2

Non-Ferrous

China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will tighten through the second half. The CNIA pledged deeper supply-side reforms. As a result, China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will target backward capacity and undercut low-price competition. Therefore, China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will echo aluminum’s capacity cap and replacement rules.

Supply-side reform extends beyond aluminum

Beijing will replicate electrolytic aluminum controls across nonferrous segments. The policy will cap capacity and require like-for-like replacements with greener assets. However, authorities will also police “rat-race” pricing and inefficient operations. The work plan links to July’s industrial stabilisation agenda. It covers steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials.

Output, trade and energy-transition metals

China’s 10 key nonferrous metals reached 40.32mn t in January–June. That marked 2.9% growth versus last year. Meanwhile, first-half trade in nonferrous metals rose 2.4% to $192.5bn. But China-US trade fell 11% on disputes. Silicon metal output declined 5.5% to 2.183mn t. Electrolytic nickel fell 2.1% year over year. Conversely, refined cobalt rose 16% to 94,000t. Lithium carbonate surged 29% to 386,000t.

Producers will adjust supply chains amid policy and trade shifts. CNIA expects 2025 output growth of 2–3% from 79.2mn t. Moreover, NEVs, lithium-ion batteries, and solar power will support demand. However, a complex external environment will pressure margins and capital plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tighter enforcement favors disciplined, low-cost smelters with strong ESG performance. Expect capacity swaps, selective shutdowns, and firmer pricing discipline in oversupplied chains. Watch lithium, cobalt, and silicon policy signals for battery and solar cost curves.

Baiyin Nonferrous Acquires Brazil’s MVV Copper Asset from Appian

Mineracao Vale Verde (MVV)

Baiyin Strengthens Global Copper Portfolio with Serrote Acquisition

China’s Baiyin Nonferrous has acquired Mineracao Vale Verde (MVV) in Brazil for $420mn from Appian Capital Advisory. MVV owns the Serrote copper and gold mine, a greenfield project in Alagoas, which began production in May 2021. In 2024, MVV produced 18,300 tonnes of copper, solidifying its status as a strategic mid-tier producer.

Failed Bids Marked the Asset’s Path Before Baiyin’s Success

South African mining firm Sibanye Stillwater initially agreed to purchase MVV in 2021 but withdrew in early 2022. Another buyer, ACG Acquisition, a London-listed SPAC, attempted a deal in 2023, which also fell through. Appian ultimately found a reliable buyer in Baiyin, a Chinese state-owned firm eager to secure critical metals abroad.

China Expands Its Mining Footprint in Latin America

Baiyin’s purchase of MVV continues China’s trend of securing base metal assets in resource-rich Latin America. As global demand for copper rises, Chinese firms are accelerating M&A activity to support domestic energy transition goals. Meanwhile, Appian’s exit signals a rebalancing of private equity portfolios amid shifting global mining dynamics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Baiyin Nonferrous’ acquisition of MVV highlights the strategic pivot by Chinese state firms toward overseas copper consolidation. With failed bids behind it, Serrote now enters a new chapter under a well-capitalized buyer. As the global energy transition intensifies, these transactions will become more frequent, reshaping ownership in key mineral corridors like South America.

Kloeckner Camalloy Acquisition Expands US Aluminum and Stainless Steel Reach

Camalloy

The Kloeckner Camalloy acquisition strengthens the company’s position in US metals distribution. Kloeckner has acquired Camalloy, a Pennsylvania-based service center focused on aluminum and stainless steel. The deal gives Kloeckner a stronger nonferrous footprint near Pittsburgh. As a result, the Kloeckner Camalloy acquisition expands its reach across several industrial markets.

This matters because service centers play a critical role between mills and end users. Camalloy does not only stock metal. It also provides processing capabilities such as shearing and polyvinyl chloride application. Therefore, the Kloeckner Camalloy acquisition adds both geographic access and value-added service capability.

The location also gives the deal practical strength. Camalloy already serves customers across multiple eastern and midwestern states. That makes the Pennsylvania service center a useful regional platform rather than a narrow local asset. Consequently, Kloeckner gains a stronger base for broader customer coverage.

Aluminum and Stainless Steel Service Center Adds Nonferrous Depth

The aluminum and stainless steel service center fits well with Kloeckner’s broader distribution strategy. Aluminum and stainless products serve diverse industrial sectors with different demand patterns than carbon steel. That gives the company a wider commercial mix. As a result, the acquisition can improve resilience across changing market conditions.

Camalloy also brings processing capabilities that matter in service-center competition. Customers increasingly want shorter lead times and more finished-ready supply. Basic stockholding alone is often not enough. Therefore, the acquisition may help Kloeckner compete more effectively in higher-service regional markets.

This deal also reflects a broader industry trend. Distributors want stronger positions in specialty and nonferrous products, not only volume steel categories. Aluminum and stainless steel often support higher-value industrial applications. Consequently, the Kloeckner Camalloy acquisition may carry more strategic value than its single-site footprint first suggests.

US Metals Distribution Network Gains Better Access to Key Industrial Hubs

US metals distribution reach appears to be one of the clearest benefits of this transaction. Kloeckner said the Camalloy facility will help serve industrial hubs such as Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Philadelphia. That gives the company stronger access to important manufacturing corridors. Therefore, the Pennsylvania service center becomes a regional logistics asset as well as an inventory point.

This wider reach could support better customer responsiveness. Industrial buyers often value location, speed, and reliable processing as much as headline price. A well-placed service center can improve all three. Meanwhile, access to multiple nearby hubs can raise asset utilization and sales density.

The acquisition also shows how consolidation can work at the distribution layer. Adding one specialized facility can strengthen product mix, processing capability, and regional reach at the same time. As a result, Kloeckner Camalloy acquisition looks like a focused but practical move in a competitive metals service market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal is not about headline tonnage. It is about distribution quality, customer proximity, and nonferrous capability. In metals service, those advantages often matter more than scale alone.

Shidai Ruixiang Launches LMFP Battery Material Plant in Gansu

Baiyin Nonferrous Group

China’s Shidai Ruixiang has launched a new LMFP battery material plant with a production capacity of 20,000 tonnes per year. Located in Baiyin city, Gansu province, this marks the first phase of what will become the world’s largest LMFP facility. Once complete, the site will scale to 100,000 t/yr in lithium ferro-manganese phosphate production for next-generation EV battery applications.

The LMFP battery material plant is operated by Shidai Ruixiang, a joint venture between Gansu Elephent Energy and Baiyin Nonferrous Group, a major Chinese state-owned metals producer. The full project will be developed in three phases, although details for the next stages remain undisclosed. This launch reinforces China’s dominant position in advanced battery cathode material (CAM) supply chains.

China Expands LMFP Footprint in Global EV Market

LMFP materials offer higher energy density and longer driving range than traditional LFP cathodes, while keeping manufacturing costs low. However, they have shorter life cycles and reduced charge-discharge capacity, making them more suitable for mid-range EVs or power tools. Despite this, China’s battery sector is accelerating investment in LMFP research and production.

Other major CAM players such as Hunan Yuneng and Ningbo Ronbay are also expanding LMFP production. Ronbay announced a dual LMFP and sodium-ion CAM plant in Xiantao, Hubei, while Yuneng is constructing a dedicated LMFP facility. These efforts position LMFP as a potential mainstream solution for future battery platforms balancing cost, safety, and range.

Strategic Role of State-Backed Metals Companies in CAM Expansion

The Shidai Ruixiang LMFP battery material plant highlights growing integration between state-backed metals enterprises and energy storage innovation. Baiyin Nonferrous brings decades of expertise in copper and zinc processing—critical metals for battery infrastructure—into the cathode materials space. The partnership reflects China's strategy to leverage existing industrial assets for clean tech scalability.

As battery chemistries diversify in response to cost and performance demands, China’s control over both upstream raw materials and downstream manufacturing provides a distinct competitive edge in the global energy transition economy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LMFP battery material plant in Gansu represents a strategic shift toward diversified CAM solutions for scalable EV deployment. As Chinese producers push LMFP into the mainstream, global automakers and battery buyers will need to weigh performance trade-offs against cost and availability.

Xinjiang Nonferrous in China Begins Lithium Carbonate Production

Lithium Carbonate

Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal, a state-owned producer in China, has commenced lithium carbonate production at a facility located in the Hetian area of northwest China's Xinjiang region.

This project, with a designed capacity of 100,000 tons per year for lithium salts, will be developed in two phases. The initial phase includes the production of 30,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate, 30,000 tons per year of lithium hydroxide, and 15,000 tons per year of lithium chloride.

Construction of the first phase began in July of last year, and by the end of May, the company had produced its first batch of qualified products from the 30,000 t/yr lithium carbonate line. The goal for this year is to produce 12,000 tons.

Details regarding the construction timelines and launch dates for the second phase, which will produce 25,000 tons per year of lithium salts, remain undisclosed.

Xinjiang Nonferrous is developing an integrated facility encompassing mining, separation, and processing, with the capacity to process 3 million tons of lithium ore annually to produce 600,000 tons of high-grade lithium concentrate. The company plans to commence mining operations in the coming months, aiming for an annual production of 130,000 tons of concentrate this year.

In 2019, the company acquired exploration rights for rare metals in the Hetian area for 2 billion yuan ($276 million). The area's measured and controlled lithium ore resources total 50 million tons, equivalent to 700,000 tons of lithium oxide. Resource estimates are expected to increase to 100 million tons, equivalent to 1.5 million tons of lithium oxide, upon completion of exploration.

Chinese lithium producers are ramping up production both domestically and internationally to meet strong demand from the electric vehicle battery industry. Another domestic lithium producer, Hunan Anneng Ganfeng, is also set to commence production at a 25,000 t/yr lithium carbonate plant in October.

The rapid increase in output has outpaced demand growth, leading to a decline in prices. On June 19, Metalnomist assessed prices for 99.5% grade lithium carbonate at 94,500-99,500 yuan per ton ex-works, down by over 80% from their record highs in November 2022. Increased supplies from Qinghai, China's main production hub for lithium extracted from brines, have continued during the warmer summer months. Some major producers may reduce output if prices continue to fall.

Venture Metals Expands US Footprint with Strategic Acquisitions

Venture Metals

Acquisition of Thalheimer Bros and Mega Metals Bolsters Nonferrous Capabilities

Venture Metals has acquired Thalheimer Brothers and its subsidiary, Mega Metals. This strategic move significantly expands Venture's nonferrous recycling operations. The acquisitions add processing facilities in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. These locations complement Venture's existing plants in Texas, Illinois, and South Korea. Mega Metals, specializing in titanium scrap, brings a critical new capability. 

This acquisition includes titanium 6-4 turnings, approved for aerospace reuse. Thalheimer Brothers strengthens Venture's position in stainless steel, copper, and aluminum recycling. They also handle nickel-based alloys and high-temperature metals. Rich Reiner will continue as CEO of both Thalheimer and Mega. Venture Metals aims to enhance its market presence in the US.

Titanium Expertise and Market Expansion

Mega Metals' focus on titanium scrap is a key asset. They are approved to handle titanium 6-4 turnings for aerospace. This includes 6-4 bulk weldable and 6-4 feedstock. They also process "ferrous" grades for ferro-titanium production. This serves both US and European markets. This expansion signifies Venture Metals' commitment to specialized metal recycling.

China Extends NEV and Electronics Incentives into 2025, Boosting Metals Demand

China New Energy Vehicles

The Chinese government has announced the continuation of incentives in 2025 to stimulate consumption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and electronics, key downstream sectors for nonferrous metals.  This decision aims to bolster demand in these crucial industries and support economic growth.

NEV Subsidies and Expansion of Eligible Vehicles

The government will continue offering subsidies for NEV purchases. Consumers who scrap an old vehicle to buy a new NEV will receive a subsidy of up to 20,000 yuan ($2,729), while those trading in an old vehicle will receive up to 15,000 yuan.  Importantly, the minimum standard for old internal combustion engine vehicles eligible for the scrappage subsidy has been eased to the "National IV Emission" standard from National III, expanding the program's reach. These subsidies represent a significant portion (8-11%) of the average NEV price in China, according to industry estimates. NEVs in China include battery electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles.  Beijing will also provide an 80,000 yuan subsidy for replacing new energy buses over eight years old or bus power batteries past their warranty, accelerating the electrification of public transport. Subsidies will also promote electric bicycle replacement in 2025.

Impact on Metals Markets

These incentives are an extension of the program launched last March to promote the replacement of old industrial equipment and consumer products, with NEVs being a central component. China's NEV sales in 2024 are projected to reach nearly 12 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, with government incentives playing a crucial role.  The NEV industry is a major consumer of nonferrous metals.  

Each NEV typically uses over 200kg of metal minerals, including an estimated 50-70kg of lithium carbonate and 0.75kg of praseodymium-neodymium.  In 2025, subsidies will also be available for new electronics purchases (phones, tablets, smartwatches, etc.) up to 500 yuan (for devices under 6,000 yuan) and for replacing home appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, etc.) up to 2,000 yuan. The extension of these incentives is expected to provide support to metals markets facing pressure from oversupply or weak demand amid an economic slowdown.

Steel Dynamics Begins Aluminum Production at Columbus Facility

Steel Dynamics

New Plant to Boost Flat-Rolled Aluminum Output

Steel Dynamics (SDI), a leading electric arc furnace steelmaker and recycler, successfully cast its first industrial and beverage can ingots at its newly launched aluminum facility in Columbus, Mississippi, on January 12. Operating under the Aluminum Dynamics brand, SDI aims to produce 650,000 metric tonnes of flat-rolled aluminum annually, supporting the beverage, automotive, and common alloy markets.

Production Capacity and Recycling Strategy

Starting in June, 45% of SDI’s aluminum output will go toward can sheet production, 35% will serve the automotive industry, and 20% will be used for common alloy applications. By the end of 2025, the facility expects to operate at 50% utilization, ramping up to 75% through 2026.

To meet demand, SDI will rely on 900,000 tonnes of recycled aluminum slabs. The Columbus site will supply 70% of these materials, while two satellite slab centers in Mexico and Arizona will contribute the remaining 30%. The Mexico facility is set to launch in the first quarter of 2025, followed by Arizona later in the year.

Nonferrous Recycling Trends

Despite the expansion, SDI’s nonferrous recycling shipments saw a slight decline in 2024. Shipments fell to 965 million lbs from 970 million lbs in 2023, with fourth-quarter volumes dropping to 226 million lbs from 234 million lbs a year earlier. However, the new aluminum operations are expected to strengthen the company’s position in the recycled metals market.

SRG to acquire Sisk Scrap Recycling to scale Carolina scrap capacity

Southeast Recycling Group

SRG to acquire Sisk Scrap Recycling in a deal that expands South Carolina coverage and processing scale. The transaction closes on 30 September, pending completion. SRG to acquire Sisk Scrap Recycling lifts capacity to 175,000 gt/yr ferrous and 150mn lbs/yr nonferrous. As a result, SRG strengthens feedstock, wire chopping, and auto dismantling capabilities. Therefore, SRG to acquire Sisk Scrap Recycling positions the platform for regional growth.

Capacity, sites, and services after the deal

SRG gains two South Carolina sites: Duncan and Gaffney. Duncan adds a copper and aluminum wire chopping line. Gaffney offers vehicle pick-and-pull services. Meanwhile, SRG already operates Spartanburg plus two North Carolina locations. The enlarged footprint improves routing, scale economics, and material upgrading. It also broadens nonferrous recovery and finished package optionality.

Leadership continuity and strategic fit

Sisk’s Travis Knight, with Eric and Jordan Knight, will remain in leadership roles. Continuity should protect supplier ties and local sourcing. The platform stems from Carolina Metals Group and Spartan Recycling Group. Consequently, the combination deepens SRG’s Carolinas network density. It also enhances service to foundries, mills, and exporters seeking consistent grades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PE-style roll-ups in scrap thrive on route density and yield optimization. Watch SRG leverage wire chopping and pull-and-pick flows to upgrade margins. Local leadership retention should accelerate integration while protecting yard-level buy patterns.

China’s Gallium Expansion Slows as Germanium Supply Diversifies: Key Market Insights

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA)

The Chinese gallium (Ga) production expansion has encountered significant hurdles, while germanium (Ge) supply sources are increasingly diversifying to mitigate feedstock shortages. According to Li Yilan, a senior analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), the pace of new gallium production projects in China has slowed due to decreasing Ga content in bauxite, the primary feedstock for gallium extraction. As a result, many production projects have been delayed, and some that did launch have scaled back or halted operations altogether. However, the diversification of germanium supply chains signals a shift in how the industry is adapting to global demand pressures.

Slowdown in Gallium Production Expansion

China’s gallium output for 2024 is forecast to reach 950 tons, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, the growth rate of gallium production capacity has slowed considerably. In particular, China’s gallium capacity rose by 40% this year, but the full realization of this capacity has been hindered by difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock from bauxite. The lower Ga content in bauxite has made it harder for producers to maintain a consistent supply of gallium, forcing many projects to delay their timelines or reduce output.

The demand for gallium, particularly from the magnet manufacturing sector (which consumes 46% of the metal), has increased gradually over the past two years. Additionally, the rise in demand for gallium oxide phosphor in electronics has offset the reduced demand from the solar cell sector. This demand shift has been a key factor in the slight increase in Chinese gallium exports, which rose by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 48.4 tons. This increase is partly due to disruptions in last year’s exports caused by the country’s export control schemes, which limited overseas shipments.

Germanium Supply Diversification and Emerging Markets

While gallium production faces slowdowns, germanium’s supply chain is showing signs of diversification, especially as producers look beyond China for feedstock. Tight feedstock availability in China has prompted several producers to seek alternative sources for germanium. Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines, has begun exporting germanium concentrates to Belgium. This move is part of a broader trend of extracting germanium from non-traditional sources, such as copper-cobalt ores in the Congo and coal and nickel in Indonesia. These new extraction routes are expected to increase the overall supply of germanium.

China’s germanium output is projected to exceed 200 tons in 2024, up from 190 tons the previous year. Strong demand from the infrared and solar cell sectors, which use germanium in various applications, has driven prices upward in recent months. However, the rapid rise in prices has caused a significant drop in exports. Between January and September 2024, China exported just 18.8 tons of germanium, a 46% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Higher prices and more stringent export license procedures have pushed international buyers to explore other sources for germanium, further boosting the trend toward diversified supply.

Conclusion

The global markets for gallium and germanium are undergoing significant shifts, with production challenges in China affecting gallium’s expansion and leading to a diversification of germanium supply chains. While gallium demand remains steady, especially from magnet and phosphor industries, production issues are slowing the pace of growth. On the other hand, germanium's increasing extraction from countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia is easing the reliance on Chinese supply. The metal markets are adapting, and these dynamics will likely continue to influence pricing and production trends in the coming years.

LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

Banchao Magnesium Builds New Magnesium Plant in Xinjiang’s Hami City

Magnesium

Expansion Targets 2026 Launch Amid Growing Regional Output

Xinjiang Banchao Magnesium has started building a new magnesium plant in Hami, a key resource hub in northwest China’s Xinjiang province. Construction began on 1 March and is scheduled for completion by the end of 2025, with production expected in 2026.

The facility is designed to produce 20,000 tonnes/year of magnesium metal and 30,000 tonnes/year of magnesium alloy. The project reflects rising demand for lightweight metals used in automotive, aerospace, and green energy applications.

Banchao Magnesium is a subsidiary of Xinjiang Banchao, active in coal and non-ferrous metals mining as well as solar and wind power generation.

Xinjiang’s Magnesium Output Rises Sharply in 2024

The new Hami plant adds to Banchao’s five existing facilities, which already produce 20,000 t/yr of magnesium metal, 1.2 million t/yr of carbon products, and 600,000 t/yr of coke.

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA), China’s magnesium metal output reached 953,100 tonnes in 2024, marking a 16% year-on-year increase.

Xinjiang province alone produced 86,300 tonnes, up 26% year-on-year, thanks to its rich dolomite and coal reserves—essential inputs for magnesium smelting. Most of the region’s magnesium facilities are concentrated in Hami due to resource accessibility and industrial infrastructure.

Xinjiang Jinsheng Also Expands Magnesium Capacity

Another local producer, Xinjiang Jinsheng, is constructing phase two of its Hami plant, adding 35,000 t/yr of capacity. Construction started in April 2024, with production scheduled for 2026.

Jinsheng’s first-phase plant, operational since 2011, reached full utilization in 2024, producing 20,000 tonnes/year. This continued regional investment reinforces Xinjiang’s strategic position in China's magnesium supply chain.

As global industries seek lightweight, sustainable metals, Xinjiang’s magnesium sector is poised for further growth.

China Enhances Metal Reserves Through Strategic Discoveries

The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR)

A Boost to Global Metal Supply Stability

Significant Metal Finds Across China: From 2021 to 2024, China has made substantial discoveries in key nonferrous metals, including lithium, copper, and rare earths. These findings are part of Beijing's broader strategy under the country's 14th five-year economic development plan, reinforcing its position as a major player in the global metal market.

Impact on Lithium and Rare Earths Production

China as a Stabilizer in Lithium Markets: The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) reported that China's domestic lithium production has risen by over 30%, thanks to new finds, particularly in spodumene and salt lake brines. These discoveries have positioned China as the world's third-largest lithium producer from salt lake brines.

Rare Earths and Other Minerals: New rare earth deposits were identified in several provinces, enhancing China’s capability in this critical sector. Discoveries of other minerals like bauxite and nickel ore have also been reported, driven by technological advancements in mining.

China’s Ferro-Molybdenum Prices Rise on Strong Steel Demand

Ferro-molybdenum

Ferro-molybdenum prices in China have surged in recent weeks, driven by increased demand and higher tender prices from steel producers. The rise comes as Chinese steelmakers scramble to meet molybdenum-containing steel orders, pushing up prices in a market already facing supply constraints.

Supply Struggles Amid Rising Demand

As steel mills in China ramped up their purchases, tender volumes for August were expected to reach around 10,000 tonnes, but actual purchases have surpassed expectations, totaling 12,000-13,000 tonnes so far. Steelmakers bought the alloy at prices ranging from 238,000 to 239,000 yuan per tonne, up by 2,000-3,000 yuan from the previous week.

At the same time, domestic alloy output fell by 10% in July compared to the previous month, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA). The drop, attributed to squeezed profit margins and rising feedstock costs, has led many producers to cut or suspend production. Heavy rains in the Huludao and Chaoyang regions in Liaoning province also disrupted logistics, further tightening supply.

Mixed Outlook for Demand

Looking ahead, market participants are divided on the demand outlook. Some expect steel mills to continue stockpiling ferro-molybdenum ahead of China’s national holiday in early October, in preparation for increased post-summer steel demand. Others caution that mills may hold back on bulk purchases to avoid further price increases.

Titanium Exempt from New US Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Broader Aerospace Uncertainty

Titanium Ingot

Titanium Scrap and Alloys Dodge Latest Tariff Wave, but Market Unease Persists

Titanium and its derivatives, including scrap and ferro-titanium, were notably exempted from the latest round of US reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. Annex II of President Donald Trump’s executive order outlined the list of exemptions, sparing various nonferrous metals, including titanium, from additional duties.

However, existing tariffs on titanium products remain unchanged. These include a 60% duty on Chinese titanium sponge and a 15% duty on unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia. While titanium scrap imports from the EU and UK are also exempt, pre-existing duties—such as the 20% tariff on Chinese titanium added in March—still apply.

Meanwhile, concerns linger about supply disruptions, particularly in vacuum-grade titanium scrap. The US depends heavily on EU and UK sources to meet demand for ingot melting in aerospace-grade production.

Aerospace Industry Caught in the Crossfire of Uncertain Trade Measures

The aerospace supply chain could still face ripple effects, especially concerning finished parts, components, and jet engines. Major OEMs such as Airbus, Boeing, and Rolls-Royce remain cautious, stating that they are assessing the impact of the new tariffs.

Jet engines like CFM’s Leap-1A and 1B, which power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max, span a US-French supply chain, raising questions about the impact of cross-border tariffs on subcomponents. Landing gear systems produced by Safran for the Boeing 787 and turbine modules from GE in the US to France further complicate the situation.

While titanium producers currently report no impact on OEMs for titanium-based parts, the ambiguity surrounding composite materials and mixed-alloy components could lead to future disruptions.

China's Tariff Retaliation Raises Stakes for US Aerospace Exports

In response, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, with no exemptions, escalating the trade conflict. This will impact US titanium exports to China—totaling 1,300t in 2024—mainly in bars, rods, and wire, as well as aerospace components vital to Comac’s C919 jet program.

China’s C919 relies on US-sourced Leap-1C engines, avionics from Honeywell Aerospace, GE Aerospace, and Collins Aerospace, making it vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

Although China sources the majority of its titanium domestically, these duties highlight the fragile interdependence of global aerospace production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium’s tariff exemption provides momentary relief to US aerospace and scrap processors, but the real uncertainty lies in composite supply chains. As the US and China entrench their trade defenses, aerospace firms must prepare for further regulatory fragmentation. Strategic stockpiling, diversified sourcing, and diplomatic engagement will define resilience in the next phase of industrial policy shifts.

Tax Rebate Cancellation Stalls China’s Aluminium Export Contracts for 2025

Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

China’s aluminium industry faces significant disruptions following Beijing’s decision to cancel a crucial 13% export tax rebate on aluminium fabricated products, as reported during an industry conference in Wuxi. This unexpected policy change, effective from December 1, has forced many Chinese producers to delay or renegotiate their 2025 export term contracts.

Immediate Impact on Export Strategies

In response to the announcement on November 15, Chinese exporters, who had not anticipated such a swift policy shift, are now scrambling to adjust. The elimination of the tax rebate has not only led to the cancellation of some contracts signed before the announcement but also complicated ongoing renegotiations. A Metalnomist trader highlighted that, despite the challenges, some producers have managed to secure a 10-13% increase in export prices with their buyers for the shipments scheduled before the rebate cancellation.

Long-Term Effects on Production and Market Dynamics

The removal of the tax rebate is poised to create considerable uncertainty regarding the launch dates of new production lines for aluminium fabricated products, originally slated for early 2025. With the altered economic feasibility, these lines might now face postponements or cancellations, as firms reevaluate their profitability without the rebate.

Furthermore, market analysts project a significant dip in China’s aluminium exports, with reductions estimated between 300,000 to 800,000 tonnes in 2025. This decline is expected to begin in early 2025, with a potential gradual recovery as the export arbitrage widens, thanks to anticipated adjustments in domestic and overseas prices.

Nuclear Renaissance: Surge in Reactor Constructions to Boost Metal Demand

Nuclear

As global nuclear energy capacity is projected to hit record highs by 2025, the demand for specific nonferrous metals critical for reactor components is set to soar.

Expanding Global Nuclear Capacity

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris, there are currently 63 nuclear reactors under construction worldwide, totaling over 70GW of capacity. This level of development, one of the highest since 1990, heralds a new era for nuclear energy, supported by the extension of lifetimes for over 60 reactors globally in the past five years.

Metals Critical to Nuclear Technology

The increasing number of nuclear reactors, particularly those based on recent Chinese and Russian designs, is driving demand for metals such as zirconium alloy and hafnium. Zirconium alloy, known for its low neutron absorption rate and resistance to heat and corrosion, is essential for nuclear fuel rod cladding. Conversely, hafnium, which absorbs neutrons at a high rate, is pivotal in control rods that regulate the nuclear fission process.

Future Trends in Metal Demand

With the nuclear sector's expansion, the need for these metals is expected to rise sharply. The IEA also notes significant upcoming demand from sectors like data centers, driven by digitalization and AI advancements, although current electricity use by data centers is relatively modest compared to sectors like electric vehicles. Hafnium demand in the nuclear industry is estimated to grow by 4% annually, with additional increases expected in aerospace and non-aerospace superalloys.

China's Rising Titanium Sponge Export and the Future of Aerospace Supply Chains

China's Titanium Sponge

A Surplus That Could Fill a Global Gap

With certified titanium sponge supplies projected to hit a deficit in the next four years, China’s output capabilities become increasingly relevant. While traditional producers like Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan near full capacity, major aerospace companies such as Airbus and Safran are considering alternatives to mitigate supply risks. China produced 218,000 tons of titanium sponge in 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of production growth, largely due to domestic oversupply, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

However, introducing Chinese sponge to critical applications is no simple task. Certification timelines for standard quality (SQ) and premium quality (PQ) sponge can extend from three to over five years. The long lead time is essential for parts such as disks and blades in commercial aero engines, where safety standards demand rigorous checks for oxygen and nitrogen contamination. “China’s significant production capabilities are promising, but certification processes and qualification timelines are a major barrier,” said Marty Pike, vice president of global commercial strategy at U.S. metals producer ATI, at a recent titanium industry event in Texas.

Geopolitical Concerns and Legislative Guardrails

While Airbus has signaled openness to exploring Chinese titanium sponge, the decision ultimately lies with engine manufacturers. Other industry leaders, however, cite concerns over potential sanctions that may result from China’s involvement, given rising Asia-Pacific tensions. Any U.S. or EU industries reliant on Chinese titanium sponge could face supply chain vulnerabilities if diplomatic relations falter.

U.S. imports of Chinese titanium sponge are rising despite tariffs, driven by cost pressures. The average price for Chinese imports to the U.S. is notably lower than that from Japan, even after duties, offering an attractive price point. A recent bill, the Securing America’s Titanium Act, seeks to balance this by waiving the standard 15% tariff on titanium sponge but maintaining a 25% tariff on Chinese imports. The proposed legislation also aims to monitor foreign influence over the U.S. supply chain, underscoring the careful stance lawmakers are taking toward titanium imports.

EU and Future Outlook

Europe's titanium sponge import dynamics are less transparent due to limited reporting and autonomous tariff suspensions. Unlike the U.S., EU markets face no duty on imports, making it an attractive market for Chinese exporters. While the aerospace sector remains cautious, other industries such as medical and industrial may more readily accept Chinese sponge as they seek cost-effective solutions.

As the titanium market evolves, balancing supply demands, certification processes, and geopolitical risks will shape the future of titanium sponge in aerospace, with China poised as a powerful, if complex, player in the unfolding narrative.

China's Titanium Sponge Production to See Significant Expansion Amid Demand Growth

China's Titanium Sponge

China's titanium sponge production capacity is set to experience a major boost, potentially reaching between 300,000 and 500,000 tonnes per year over the next three to five years, according to An Zhongsheng, secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's titanium zirconium and hafnium branch (CNIA-Ti). This expansion is expected to be driven by increased demand across various sectors including aerospace, marine engineering, chemical production, computer, communication and consumer electronics (3C), daily necessities, and air conditioning, as reported at the China and CIS Titanium Industry Development Forum held in Xi'an, Shaanxi province.

Global civil aviation demand, recovering from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, has put strain on aviation-grade titanium sponge supplies. An emphasized that while the aerospace industry is recovering, industrial sectors are propelling China's titanium market with consistent growth in recent years.

Currently, China's titanium sponge production capacity hovers around 300,000 tonnes per year. In the broader market, titanium's growing use in civilian products is anticipated to be a significant growth catalyst for the Chinese titanium industry.

Although global demand for titanium in the medical industry has surged, Chinese demand in this sector has been hampered by healthcare reforms promoting the use of cost-effective materials. Despite this, prices for titanium sponge are projected to remain relatively stable, enhancing its appeal across a range of applications. An Zhongsheng reassured industry stakeholders that China’s domestic supply of titanium sponge will meet future demands due to planned capacity expansions.

The anticipated rapid growth in titanium sponge production marks a transition for titanium from a rare metal to a more commonly used material, according to An. In the first half of this year, China produced 123,500 tonnes of titanium sponge, according to CNIA-Ti data.

Nevertheless, China continues to rely on imports for approximately 35-40% of its titanium ores and concentrates, reflecting its position in the global supply chain. Last year, global production of titanium ore and concentrate amounted to 8.75 million tonnes (t) of titanium dioxide equivalent, with China contributing 37%, followed by Mozambique (18%), South Africa (11%), and Canada (6%).

In the realm of titanium dioxide production, China led with 55% of global output in 2023, maintaining growth through domestic capacity expansions. Additionally, the world's titanium sponge production rose by 29% to 347,000 tonnes in 2023, with China’s output surging from a 25% share in 2022 to a dominant 63%. Russia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia also witnessed increases in their titanium sponge output, while Ukraine reported zero production.

For titanium mill products, global production in 2023 reached 248,000 tonnes, with China accounting for a commanding 64%, trailed by the United States (14%), Russia (13%), Japan (6%), and Europe (3%).

Luanshya Copper Mine Restart Supports Zambia’s Copper Growth Ambition

Luanshya Copper Mine

Luanshya copper mine restart plans are moving forward in Zambia, with the upper mine expected to resume production in August after two decades of care and maintenance. The mine is mainly controlled by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation.

The Luanshya copper mine restart follows a dewatering process after severe flooding damaged infrastructure at the site. Zambia’s mines ministry said the upper mine is set to restart first, while the lower mine is expected to begin production in 2029.

The Luanshya copper mine restart could become a meaningful addition to Zambia’s long-term copper supply base. Once fully operational by 2030, the mine is expected to produce around 100,000 t/yr of copper.

The project matters because Zambia is trying to raise national copper output sharply. The country produced more than 890,000t of copper in 2025, up 8% from a year earlier, and is targeting 1mn t this year.

Restart Adds Near-Term Momentum to Zambia’s Copper Pipeline

Luanshya’s return is important because it brings an idled asset back into Zambia’s operating copper base. Restarting an existing mine can be faster than building a new greenfield project, although dewatering, infrastructure repair and operational stabilisation still create execution risk.

The upper mine restart in August gives Zambia a near-term production milestone. The lower mine start-up in 2029 would then support a second phase of output growth.

If the mine reaches full output of 100,000 t/yr by 2030, it would make a material contribution to Zambia’s production targets. It would also strengthen the country’s position as one of Africa’s key copper suppliers.

Zambia wants to lift copper output to 3mn t by 2032. That target will require restarts, expansions, new projects, processing investment and more reliable infrastructure across the mining sector.

CNMC Role Highlights China’s African Copper Position

CNMC’s control of Luanshya reinforces China’s continuing role in African copper supply. Chinese companies have become major investors in copper assets across Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This has strategic importance for global copper flows. As copper demand rises from grids, electrification, data centres and industrial policy, ownership and offtake structures in Africa are becoming more politically and commercially significant.

Luanshya’s restart also comes as western governments seek greater access to African copper supply. Zambia is therefore becoming a more important battleground for investment, financing, logistics and long-term offtake.

For the copper market, the project adds supply visibility but not immediate full-scale relief. The larger impact depends on whether the mine can ramp steadily, manage water and infrastructure risks, and reach its 2030 production target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luanshya’s restart shows why brownfield copper assets are regaining strategic value. In a market short of fast supply growth, Zambia’s ability to revive idled mines could matter as much as discovering new deposits.