China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs to intensify in H2

Non-Ferrous

China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will tighten through the second half. The CNIA pledged deeper supply-side reforms. As a result, China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will target backward capacity and undercut low-price competition. Therefore, China nonferrous metals oversupply curbs will echo aluminum’s capacity cap and replacement rules.

Supply-side reform extends beyond aluminum

Beijing will replicate electrolytic aluminum controls across nonferrous segments. The policy will cap capacity and require like-for-like replacements with greener assets. However, authorities will also police “rat-race” pricing and inefficient operations. The work plan links to July’s industrial stabilisation agenda. It covers steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials.

Output, trade and energy-transition metals

China’s 10 key nonferrous metals reached 40.32mn t in January–June. That marked 2.9% growth versus last year. Meanwhile, first-half trade in nonferrous metals rose 2.4% to $192.5bn. But China-US trade fell 11% on disputes. Silicon metal output declined 5.5% to 2.183mn t. Electrolytic nickel fell 2.1% year over year. Conversely, refined cobalt rose 16% to 94,000t. Lithium carbonate surged 29% to 386,000t.

Producers will adjust supply chains amid policy and trade shifts. CNIA expects 2025 output growth of 2–3% from 79.2mn t. Moreover, NEVs, lithium-ion batteries, and solar power will support demand. However, a complex external environment will pressure margins and capital plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tighter enforcement favors disciplined, low-cost smelters with strong ESG performance. Expect capacity swaps, selective shutdowns, and firmer pricing discipline in oversupplied chains. Watch lithium, cobalt, and silicon policy signals for battery and solar cost curves.