Increased Supplies and Weak Demand Pressure Chinese Rare Earths

As global supplies continue to rise and demand from downstream industries slows, market participants anticipate short-term downward pressure on Chinese rare earth markets. Consecutive output increases, driven by higher ore feedstock supplies from China’s mining quotas and imports from major supplier countries, coupled with reduced capacity utilization in the magnet industry, have resulted in elevated inventories across many rare earth companies. This has prompted suppliers to destock materials at comparatively lower prices. Pessimism regarding short-term demand outlooks is growing, particularly in light of the global economic downturn.

China's rare earth output has steadily increased over recent years, supported by higher mining quotas and ore feedstock imports. Metalnomist projects that China’s total quotas for rare earth mining products in 2024 will rise by 10-15% compared to the previous year, reaching 280,000-290,000 tons. The production of praseodymium-neodymium oxide from these quotas is expected to reach approximately 44,500-45,500 tons this year, up from around 40,000 tons in 2023.

Imports of ore feedstock from Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar (Burma), Laos, and Malaysia, are projected to increase by 3-5% in 2024, reaching around 60,000 tons of rare earth oxide (REO), as rising shipments from Laos outweigh declines from Myanmar and Malaysia. Conversely, China’s rare earth metal ore imports from the US are likely to decrease by over 30% from the previous year, falling below 28,000 tons of REO, due to increased domestic consumption in the US. US-based rare earth producer MP Materials more than doubled its praseodymium-neodymium oxide production during April-June and expects a further 50% increase in the third quarter, further reducing its exports to China.

Metalnomist forecasts China’s production of praseodymium-neodymium oxide using ore feedstock imports from Southeast Asia and the US to reach around 20,000-21,000 tons in 2024. Overall, China’s praseodymium-neodymium oxide output is expected to rise to approximately 92,000-95,000 tons this year, representing a 10% increase from 2023.

China's total production of dysprosium oxide in 2024 is expected to increase to around 3,600-3,700 tons, including approximately 400 tons from domestic mining quotas, 2,000 tons from ore feedstock imports, and around 1,000 tons from neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet scraps. Terbium oxide production is also projected to rise to around 650 tons, with around 75 tons produced from China’s mining quotas, 390 tons from ore feedstock imports, and 180 tons from NdFeB magnet scraps.

Over the past decade, many magnet plants have reduced their consumption of ferro-dysprosium and terbium metal by more than 70% to cut production costs. Market participants warn that this could lead to a surplus of over 1,000 tons of dysprosium oxide and more than 200 tons of terbium oxide this year, unless China’s State Reserve Bureau intervenes with stockpiling efforts to alleviate inventory pressures on rare earth separation plants.

Expansion Slows Amidst Growing Competition

The average operating rates at most of China’s magnet plants have declined to around 60% over the past two months, driven by falling magnet prices and reduced consumer orders during the traditional off-season. China’s rough NdFeB magnet output reached 270,000-280,000 tons in 2023, an 8% increase from the previous year. Some market participants expect production to rise to around 300,000 tons in 2024, as large-scale magnet plants boost operations to secure more market share and consumer orders. However, medium and small magnet plants have been forced to reduce their operating rates to below 50% or suspend operations entirely due to profitability and cash flow challenges.

Major Chinese magnet manufacturer Jinli Magnet aims to increase its production capacity to 38,000 tons per year for rough NdFeB magnets by the end of 2024, and to 40,000 tons per year for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets and advanced magnetic components by 2025. Currently, the company’s output capacity stands at 23,000 tons per year. Meanwhile, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material plans to reach an output capacity of 36,000 tons per year for permanent magnetic materials by 2026.

A few magnet plants have slowed their output expansions, as fierce price competition in downstream applications, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, has severely squeezed profit margins. "I heard that major Chinese NEV manufacturer BYD was required to use cerium-iron-boron (CeFeB) magnets instead of NdFeB in a bid to reduce its production costs and enhance global competitiveness," a source from a magnet plant revealed.

China's production of CeFeB magnets is forecast to rise to over 100,000 tons this year, up from approximately 70,000 tons in 2023, the source added.

Europe Rare Earth Prices Hold Steady as China’s NdPr Market Softens

Rare Earth mining

Europe rare earth prices held broadly steady this week as tight heavy rare earth availability offset weakness in China’s neodymium and praseodymium market. Delivered European prices for light rare earths showed little movement, while prompt supply of restricted heavy rare earths remained extremely limited.

Europe rare earth prices are now being shaped by two different market structures. Light rare earths are tracking weaker Chinese sentiment more closely, but European demand remains modest and supply is sufficient. Heavy rare earths are trading under export-control pressure, with buyers outside China paying steep premiums for prompt material.

Europe rare earth prices therefore show a widening split between ordinary demand softness and strategic scarcity. The market is not moving as one rare earth complex. It is separating by licensing access, material origin, availability and end-use urgency.

Light Rare Earths Stay Flat Despite Chinese Market Drop

European delivered neodymium oxide prices remained steady at $115-130/kg cif Europe. Neodymium metal also held at $145-160/kg cif.

Praseodymium oxide stayed unchanged at $115-130/kg cif Europe, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide held at $110-115/kg cif. The stability came despite a sharp decline in China’s NdPr complex.

Chinese traders have been destocking ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday, expecting weaker domestic end-user demand. Several oxide producers suspended spot offers to assess market direction.

European prices did not follow the Chinese decline because regional spot demand remains limited. Delivered European prices are already below Chinese values on average, supported by sufficient supply from multiple sources.

Cerium oxide moved slightly higher, with the top end of the range rising to $2.55/kg cif Europe. Demand is being supported by increased use of cerium-based rare earth magnets and higher freight costs for material circulating outside China.

This light rare earth stability suggests that Europe is not facing immediate NdPr scarcity. However, buyers remain cautious because Chinese price movements still influence sentiment and replacement-cost expectations.

Heavy Rare Earths Remain Tight Under Export Controls

Heavy rare earth availability remains the main pressure point in Europe. Delivered prices for dysprosium oxide were unchanged at $1,000-1,200/kg cif Europe, while terbium oxide held at $3,800-4,500/kg cif.

Spot liquidity has been thin since the start of the year. Prompt availability outside China remains very tight, especially for buyers without export licences.

China’s export controls continue to reshape heavy rare earth pricing. End-users that cannot access licensed Chinese supply are still willing to pay steep premiums to secure material for magnets, defence systems, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Japanese buying interest has added more pressure since Japan became subject to stricter export controls in January. This has increased competition for limited non-China prompt supply.

The same pattern is visible in gadolinium and yttrium. Gadolinium oxide remained at $700-1,200/kg cif Europe, while yttrium oxide held at $800-1,200/kg cif Europe.

These markets are no longer priced only by Chinese domestic fundamentals. They are being priced by export-control access, available inventories and the cost of avoiding production disruption.

For European buyers, the practical issue is security of supply. Even if Chinese domestic prices soften, restricted material outside China can remain expensive because availability is controlled by licensing and logistics.

The result is a rare earth market where light rare earths may soften with Chinese demand, while heavy rare earths retain a strategic premium. That premium is likely to persist as long as export controls limit access to dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s rare earth market is becoming increasingly divided between price-led light rare earths and security-led heavy rare earths. China’s NdPr weakness matters, but export-control pressure on dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium is now the stronger strategic signal.

Europe Yttrium Oxide Prices Surge on China Export Controls

Yttrium Oxide

Europe yttrium oxide prices have surged as export controls from China choke heavy rare earth supply and tighten available spot units. Europe yttrium oxide prices jumped again this week, with buyers forced to pay sharply higher levels for scarce cargoes into the Atlantic market. However, prices for other rare earth products in Europe moved only slightly, reflecting more balanced conditions in the neodymium and praseodymium complex. Europe yttrium oxide prices now highlight how vulnerable regional supply chains remain to policy shifts in China’s rare earth sector.

Yttrium Shortage Exposes Heavy Rare Earth Risk

The latest rally in Europe yttrium oxide prices stems from an acute supply shortage outside China as export licences remain constrained. Assessments for 99.999pc yttrium oxide rose sharply to $150-200/kg cif Europe, up strongly from last week’s range. Some market participants report even higher Europe yttrium oxide prices above $200/kg in isolated critical-need spot deals, although volumes are limited. However, overall spot liquidity is thin as many enquiries for yttrium oxide and yttrium metal go unfilled because suppliers cannot secure material. Traders continue to struggle with Chinese export licences for restricted heavy rare earth products, with applications facing close scrutiny and long delays. In the absence of fresh stock, European buyers must rely on existing inventories, making a near-term correction in yttrium prices unlikely. Other heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium oxides, remain price-stable but still trade at elevated levels by historical standards.

Light and Heavy Rare Earths Diverge Across Europe

Light rare earths tell a different story, with sentiment turning slightly more bearish in China on supply and demand shifts. Neodymium and praseodymium prices softened as Chinese magnet plants slowed restocking and ore availability increased under the second 2025 mining quota. This weaker tone has filtered into Europe, trimming delivered prices for certain neodymium and praseodymium oxide and metal products. Even so, spreads between oxide and metal remain steady, reflecting solid but not overheated demand from key magnet applications. Erbium oxide prices in Europe held steady but sit well above equivalent Chinese levels amid ongoing export and customs frictions. Fresh erbium shipments continue to face port delays in China as authorities check impurities and trace restricted heavy rare earths. These checks add friction to international trade flows and reinforce the premium that European buyers must pay for secure supply. As a result, buyers and traders are reassessing sourcing strategies, inventory policies and long-term contracts to manage future rare earth disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s yttrium spike is a textbook example of how targeted export controls can weaponise narrow heavy rare earth supply chains. For end-users, the lesson is clear: diversify heavy rare earth sourcing, lock in strategic contracts and build working inventories before the next policy shock. For project developers, today’s prices strengthen the case for non-Chinese heavy rare earth capacity, but investors will demand durable policy visibility and long-term demand signals.

Lynas samarium oxide output marks another step in building separated heavy rare earth capacity

Lynas samarium oxide

outside China. Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths has achieved first production of samarium oxide at its Malaysian refinery, adding a third separated heavy rare earth material to its commercial product line.

The milestone expands Lynas’ separated heavy rare earth portfolio beyond terbium and dysprosium. The company said it is now the only commercial producer of separated samarium, terbium, and dysprosium outside China.

Lynas samarium oxide output is strategically important because heavy rare earth separation remains one of the most concentrated parts of the global critical minerals chain. China still dominates processing, refining, and separation capacity for many rare earth elements used in magnets, defense systems, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.

Heavy Rare Earth Expansion Moves Lynas Up the Value Chain

Lynas is using its Malaysian refinery to move beyond light rare earths and build a broader separated oxide platform. The company plans to add gadolinium, yttrium, and lutetium over the next two years.

The company may also expand into europium, holmium, ytterbium, and erbium if customer agreements justify the required investment. That approach shows how rare earth separation capacity is being shaped by offtake contracts, not only by resource availability.

Lynas samarium oxide output also improves its strategic value to customers seeking non-China supply. Samarium is used in high-performance magnet applications, including samarium-cobalt magnets, which retain magnetic strength under high temperatures and demanding operating conditions.

US and Japan Offtakes Support Rare Earth Supply Security

Lynas’ product expansion is backed by major offtake commitments from the US and Japan. The company recently signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defence for a $96 million light and heavy rare earth oxide supply deal.

The company has also agreed to sell at least 50pc of its heavy rare earth output to Japan Australia Rare Earths until 2038. These agreements underline Japan’s and the US’ efforts to secure rare earth supply chains for defense, energy, electronics, and advanced industrial uses.

Pricing also supports Lynas’ expansion strategy. Japan Australia Rare Earths and the US Department of Defence have both agreed to buy Lynas’ neodymium-praseodymium oxide at a floor price of at least $110/kg. Lynas’ average realised rare earth sales price rose to A$68.40/kg in July-December 2025, from A$44.60/kg a year earlier.

Lynas produced 6,375t of rare earth oxide in July-December 2025, including 3,407t of neodymium-praseodymium oxide. Output rose by 19pc on the year despite a month of lost production caused by severe power shortages at its Western Australia operations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas samarium oxide output shows that rare earth security depends on separation capability, not just mining. The next competitive frontier will be reliable, contract-backed production of specific heavy rare earth oxides outside China.

Energy Fuels Terbium Oxide Output Advances US Heavy Rare Earth Supply

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels terbium oxide production marked an important step in rebuilding US heavy rare earth processing capacity. The company produced its first kilogram of 99.9% purity terbium oxide at its White Mesa Mill in Utah.

The pilot-scale output used monazite ore mined in Florida and Georgia. Energy Fuels said the high-purity terbium oxide met rare earth magnet manufacturer specifications.

Energy Fuels terbium oxide production is strategically significant because terbium remains one of the most supply-sensitive heavy rare earths. It is used in high-performance permanent magnets that support electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, robotics, and advanced electronics.

White Mesa Mill Builds Heavy Rare Earth Processing Capability

The White Mesa Mill is becoming a key US platform for rare earth separation from monazite feedstock. Energy Fuels said the terbium oxide was the first US production from primary mineral feedstock in many decades.

The company has also produced dysprosium oxide at pilot scale at the same site. Since August, it has produced nearly 30kg of 99.9% pure dysprosium oxide.

Dysprosium and terbium are critical because they improve magnet performance under high-temperature and demanding operating conditions. This makes them especially important for advanced motors, defense technologies, and high-efficiency industrial systems.

Phase 2 Expansion Targets Commercial Rare Earth Oxide Output

Energy Fuels plans to expand heavy rare earth oxide production over the coming years. After completing its phase 2 circuit, the company expects capacity of 288t/yr of dysprosium oxide, 80t/yr of terbium oxide, and 6,000t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium oxide.

The phase 2 circuit could be completed as early as 2029. If achieved, the expansion would move Energy Fuels from pilot-scale production toward a more meaningful role in the US rare earth magnet supply chain.

Energy Fuels terbium oxide output also shows how domestic mineral feedstock, separation technology, and magnet-sector specifications must connect. The US rare earth strategy depends not only on mining, but also on producing separated oxides that downstream manufacturers can actually use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels’ pilot terbium oxide output is small in volume but large in strategic meaning. The real test will be whether White Mesa can scale heavy rare earth separation into reliable commercial supply for magnet and defense customers.

Huahong Rare Earth Output Rises as NdFeB Scrap Recycling Supports Magnet Demand

Huahong Rare Earth

Huahong rare earth output increased sharply in 2025 as stronger demand from new energy vehicles, industrial automation and energy-saving motors lifted China’s rare earth recycling and magnet supply chain. Zhejiang Huahong Technology produced 8,794t of rare earth oxides during the year, up 71% from 2024.

Huahong rare earth output growth was also supported by tighter rare earth supply conditions in China. Stricter government controls on mining, processing and production capacity helped lift prices and encouraged stronger output from qualified oxide and magnet producers.

Huahong rare earth output is strategically important because the company recovers rare earth oxides from neodymium-iron-boron scrap. This recycling route gives China another feedstock source for magnet production at a time when primary supply, mining quotas and scrap availability remain sensitive.

Sales of rare earth oxides rose by 57% to 9,165t in 2025, while inventories increased by 7% to 359t. The figures show that downstream demand remained strong enough to absorb most of the company’s higher oxide output.

NdFeB Scrap Recycling Gains Value Under Tighter Rare Earth Supply

Huahong operates three production bases for NdFeB scrap recycling: Ji’an Xintai, Jishui Jincheng and Jiangxi Wanhong. Together, these sites have 12,000 t/yr of rare earth oxide capacity using neodymium-iron-boron scrap as feedstock.

This recycling capacity matters because magnet scrap is becoming a strategic rare earth resource. NdFeB magnets contain neodymium, praseodymium and, in higher-performance grades, heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.

Recovering these materials from scrap can reduce dependence on mined feedstock and improve supply efficiency. It also supports China’s circular rare earth strategy, especially as demand from electric vehicles, robotics and industrial motors rises.

Market participants said some oxide plants are facing shutdowns or output restrictions because their capacity exceeds government standards. Tighter mining quotas, limited spot availability and higher NdFeB scrap costs have also created pressure in the oxide market.

These conditions favour producers with approved capacity and secure scrap channels. Huahong’s stronger oxide output suggests that recycled feedstock is becoming more important in balancing China’s rare earth supply chain.

The company’s revenue rose by 41% to 7.83bn yuan in 2025, while profit increased by 157% to 204mn yuan. The profit growth shows how higher rare earth prices and stronger magnet demand improved margins across the business.

High-Performance Magnet Demand Drives Capacity Expansion

Huahong’s rare earth magnetic materials output rose by 27% to 15,791t in 2025. Sales increased by 19% to 14,035t, while inventories rose by 29% to 1,042t.

The growth reflects rising demand for high-performance magnets in new energy vehicles, industrial robots, automation systems and energy-saving motors. These sectors require magnets with stronger magnetic performance, thermal stability and reliability.

China produced 16.6mn new energy vehicles in 2025, up 29% from a year earlier. NEV sales rose by 28% to 16.5mn units, supporting demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets used in traction motors, pumps, sensors, braking systems and other vehicle components.

Huahong said high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials accounted for around 42% of China’s total magnet output last year. That share is likely to remain important as vehicles become more electrified, automated and motor-intensive.

Industrial robots also supported magnet demand. Global industrial robot output exceeded 600,000 units in 2025, with compound annual growth above 10%. Robotics growth increases demand for compact, efficient and high-torque motor systems.

Huahong plans to start trial operations at the first phase of its Baotou facility in May-June 2026. The first phase will add 10,000 t/yr of high-performance magnet capacity.

Once the first phase comes on line, Huahong’s total high-performance magnet capacity will reach 20,000 t/yr. This positions the company more deeply in the downstream magnet chain, not only in rare earth oxide recycling.

The expansion shows how China’s rare earth industry is moving toward integrated recycling, oxide production and magnet manufacturing. Companies with access to scrap feedstock and downstream magnet capacity may be better positioned as rare earth supply becomes more regulated.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Huahong’s growth shows that rare earth recycling is no longer a secondary supply story. As NEV and robotics demand rises, NdFeB scrap recovery is becoming a strategic feedstock route for China’s high-performance magnet industry.

Australia's Iluka Predicts Increased Rare Earth Demand by 2033

iluka resources

According to Tom O'Leary, CEO of Australian mineral producer Iluka Resources, the evolving global demand driven by renewable energy technologies is expected to significantly increase the consumption of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium by 2033. O'Leary shared these insights at the International Rare Earth Industry Association's annual conference in Tokyo, Japan, last week.

Iluka anticipates that the ongoing transition to renewable energy, particularly through electric vehicles (EVs) and wind power, will continue to drive the demand for rare earth materials over the next decade. O'Leary stated that global demand for praseodymium-neodymium and dysprosium/terbium is projected to rise from 63,000 tons per year (t/yr) in 2023 to between 93,000 and 171,000 t/yr by 2033. Specifically, the consumption of dysprosium/terbium is expected to grow from 1,100 t/yr to between 1,900 and 5,100 t/yr during this period.

In the EV sector alone, the demand for praseodymium-neodymium is expected to increase from 12,000 t/yr in 2023 to between 33,000 and 62,000 t/yr by 2033. Similarly, the EV sector's demand for dysprosium and terbium is likely to rise from 500 t/yr to between 1,300 and 3,000 t/yr over the same timeframe.

The wind power sector is also expected to see a significant rise in praseodymium-neodymium consumption, projected to grow from 6,000 t/yr in 2023 to 26,000 t/yr by 2033. The demand for dysprosium and terbium in this sector is anticipated to increase from 200 t/yr to between 300 and 1,600 t/yr.

Other application fields, including automotive, consumer electronics, industrial applications, and home appliances, are forecasted to consume between 53,000 and 83,000 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium by 2033, up from 45,000 t/yr in 2023. The consumption of dysprosium and terbium in these fields is expected to grow from 300 t/yr to between 400 and 600 t/yr during the same period.

Iluka predicts that by 2030, 35% of global demand for dysprosium and terbium will come from e-mobility sectors, and 20% from wind power. "The global supply of dysprosium and terbium in 2030 is projected to fall short of total demand," O'Leary noted. "Iluka's Eneabba refinery is expected to account for more than half of the supply outside China once it starts commercial production by 2025."

Iluka, which produces zircon, ilmenite, and rutile in Australia and Sierra Leone, aims to achieve an annual output capacity of up to 23,000 t/yr of rare earth oxide (REO), including 5,500 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and 725 t/yr of dysprosium and terbium oxide from its refinery, supported by a $1.25 billion non-recourse loan from the Australian government.

The company has also signed an initial agreement with rare earths developer Northern Minerals to supply concentrate to Iluka's Eneabba refinery, set to commence production in 2025-26. This agreement includes the provision of 30,500 t of rare earth concentrates from Northern Minerals' Browns Range project, with an annual supply of 5,000 t for the first four years.

Iluka has a secure supply of heavy rare earths from stockpiles at its Eneabba refinery and additional supply options from its Balranald project and Wimmera deposits in New South Wales and Victoria. The Eneabba refinery can be supplied for five years with its stockpile of 1 million t of high-grade rare earth concentrate, readily available at the surface. The Balranald project is expected to deliver an additional 5,000 t/yr of rare earth concentrate from 2026. Feasibility studies are ongoing at the Wimmera deposit, which has the potential to supply 15,000 t/yr of rare earth concentrates over a mine life exceeding 25 years.

Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices jump after Baotou auction

NRE(Northern Rare Earth)

China’s leading producer lifted offers, sending Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices higher on the Baotou exchange. Strong bidding, thin inventories, and firmer magnet demand reinforced momentum across the rare earth value chain.

Auction results and near-term price signals

Northern Rare Earth sold 100t of PrNd metal on Repe in five bidding rounds. The lots cleared at the ceiling of Yn579.5/kg ex-works. The increase beat a Yn573/kg start and prior sales at Yn572/kg. As a result, Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices set a stronger reference level for spot trade.

Feedstock tightness lifts oxide and metal

Higher auction prints immediately buoyed oxide feedstock. Deals for 99% PrNd oxide closed at Yn498–500/kg ex-works. Meanwhile, magnet enquiries returned, lifting 99% metal to Yn598–605/kg ex-works. That range rose from Yn583–588/kg on 22 July, underscoring tightening availability.

Market participants cite constrained oxide supply and low magnet plant stocks. Therefore, sellers expect firmness while buyers tread cautiously after sustained gains. In this setting, Northern Rare Earth praseodymium-neodymium prices anchor bullish sentiment for NdFeB supply chains.

Short-term risks center on logistics, purchasing discipline, and downstream run-rates. However, resilient aerospace, EV motor, and wind turbine demand continues to support NdPr fundamentals. Price dips may attract restocking if oxide flows remain uneven.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Baotou auction reset the near-term floor for NdPr, with feedstock scarcity doing the heavy lifting. Watch magnet producers’ inventory cycles and any supply releases that could temper premiums. Until then, firmness prevails while procurement stays selective.

Shenghe Resources Acquires 100% Stake in Peak Rare Earth for Overseas Expansion

Peak Rare Earth

Shenghe Resources completed a strategic Shenghe Peak Rare Earth acquisition worth A$158 million ($729.86 million) to secure complete ownership of the Australian mining company and its Tanzanian assets. The Chinese rare earth producer's subsidiary Ganzhou Chenguang executed the purchase to accelerate overseas rare earth resource development beyond China's domestic market. This Shenghe Peak Rare Earth acquisition builds upon Shenghe's existing 19.9% shareholding established in early 2022 and strengthens China's global rare earth supply chain control.

Ngualla Project Anchors Tanzania Rare Earth Strategy

The Ngualla project represents the centerpiece of the Shenghe Peak Rare Earth acquisition, featuring 4.61 million tonnes of rare earth oxide (REO) resources and 887,000 tonnes of REO reserves. Peak Rare Earth holds an 84% stake in the Tanzanian project, with the government retaining the remaining ownership share. Meanwhile, the project maintains an impressive average grade of 4.8% and praseodymium-neodymium oxide content of 21.26%.

Construction completion and operational startup are scheduled for early 2026, with initial production targeting 18,000 tonnes REO of rare earth concentrate annually. This output will yield approximately 4,000 tonnes of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, critical materials for permanent magnet manufacturing. Therefore, the Ngualla project will significantly boost Shenghe's production capacity for high-value magnetic rare earth elements.

Heavy Mineral Sands Portfolio Expands Through Strategic Acquisitions

Shenghe diversified its Tanzanian operations through the Fungoni project, which commenced heavy mineral sands production in late 2024. The first production line achieved operational status, with additional lines expected online before September to reach 100,000 tonnes per year total capacity. As a result, Shenghe secured both rare earth and heavy mineral sands resources within Tanzania's mineral-rich regions.

The company acquired complete ownership of Strandline Resources UK Limited (SRUL) in May 2024, gaining control of the Fungoni project's operating subsidiary Tanzanian Nyati Mineral Sands. Furthermore, Shenghe purchased a 65% stake in Jiacheng Mining (Shanghai) and 100% of African Resources Company, adding 27 million tonnes of heavy mineral sands resources. However, these acquisitions require integration with existing operations to maximize synergies across the portfolio.

Shenghe's financial performance reflected these strategic investments, with revenues reaching 2.99 billion yuan ($415 million) in the first quarter, representing 3.66% year-over-year growth. Net profit surged to 168.22 million yuan from a previous year loss of 215.57 million yuan. Consequently, rising rare earth prices, tighter spot supplies, and increased sales volumes drove this remarkable financial turnaround for the expanding company.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Shenghe's aggressive overseas acquisition strategy demonstrates China's determination to secure critical rare earth supply chains beyond domestic borders, particularly in Africa's mineral-rich regions. The Peak Rare Earth acquisition provides strategic access to high-grade praseodymium-neodymium resources essential for permanent magnet production, while the Tanzanian portfolio diversification reduces supply concentration risks through geographic and commodity expansion.

China's Praseodymium-Neodymium Prices Rise Amid Tight Supply and Strong Demand

China’s Praseodymium-Neodymium market has seen significant price increases over the past two weeks, fueled by a combination of tight spot oxide availability and robust demand from the magnet industry. Market analysts expect this trend to persist through the end of the month, with intensified restocking activities by metal and magnet producers further supporting prices.

Oxide separation plants and trading houses have raised their offers due to firm production costs for ore feedstock and consistent purchases from metal producers, who have also seen rising transaction prices. The uptrend in oxide prices, coupled with narrow profit margins for mining firms outside China, has contributed to higher prices in the ore feedstock market. Many ore suppliers have either withdrawn their sales or increased their offers recently, reflecting the prevailing market conditions.

Trading firms, eager to capitalize on the price gains after months of market fluctuations, have been more active in restocking. Large-scale magnet manufacturing plants have continued their regular purchases of praseodymium-neodymium metal, gradually accepting higher prices in line with the rising cost of oxide feedstock. Even medium and small magnet producers, despite their smaller purchase volumes, have made purchases at the higher prices, reinforcing the overall price uptrend in the metal feedstock market.

Expectations of increased magnet demand following the summer lull have further strengthened market predictions of continued price rises. As a result, many oxide and metal producers are holding firm on prices, anticipating higher offers in the near future.

The release of Northern Rare Earth’s (NRE) listed prices for September delivery of praseodymium-neodymium next week is also anticipated to reflect these recent price gains. The slowdown in the growth of light rare earth production quotas and reduced ore feedstock imports from the U.S. and Southeast Asia are additional factors contributing to the tightening of spot supplies, which may lead to further price increases in the coming months.

However, some market participants remain cautious, focusing on the fundamentals of physical demand and the operating rates of downstream magnet producers before making further predictions about price movements.

China’s Northern Rare Earth to Build 5,000 t/yr Rare Earth Oxide Plant in Baotou

Northern Rare Earth

Northern Rare Earth (NRE), one of China’s leading light rare earth producers, has announced plans to build a rare earth oxide production plant in Baotou, Inner Mongolia. The project, which will be developed in partnership with Changting Golden Dragon, a subsidiary of Xiamen Tungsten, represents a significant step in expanding China’s rare earth separation and processing capacity.

Rare Earth Oxide Project Details

The 457 million yuan ($62.6 million) investment will establish a 5,000 metric ton per year (t/yr) rare earth oxide production line in Baotou’s Kundulun Economic and Technological Development Zone. NRE will hold a 51% stake, while Changting Golden Dragon will own the remaining 49%.

While specific launch dates remain undisclosed, the project aligns with China’s broader strategy of enhancing domestic rare earth processing capacity to maintain its global dominance in the supply of critical materials, including praseodymium, neodymium, lanthanum, and cerium—key elements used in the neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet industry.

NRE has also strengthened its partnership with Golden Dragon by investing 105 million yuan in 2022 to expand its equity in the company. The move secured priority supply agreements for praseodymium-neodymium metal, lanthanum metal, and mischmetal lanthanum-cerium products, reinforcing NRE’s role as a strategic supplier within the rare earth industry chain.

NRE's Financial Performance and Market Challenges

NRE’s latest financial report reflects mixed performance trends amid volatile rare earth prices:

• Q3 2024 Revenue: 8.56 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year.

• Q3 2024 Net Profit: 359.92 million yuan, up 11% from 2023.

• January-September 2024 Revenue: 21.55 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year.

• January-September 2024 Net Profit: 405.32 million yuan, a 71% drop from the previous year.

The decline in profitability stems from weaker rare earth prices, driven by sufficient supply and lower-than-expected demand growth. Praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal—one of the most crucial rare earth elements for EV motors, wind turbines, and industrial magnets—saw its average price drop by 28% to 477 yuan/kg ex-works in the first nine months of 2024.

Despite softening rare earth prices, NRE has benefited from strong restocking activity by magnet manufacturers and tighter rare earth mining quotas, which have helped stabilize the Pr-Nd market in recent months.

Conclusion

NRE’s new rare earth oxide plant in Baotou strengthens China’s position as a dominant force in the global rare earth supply chain. With China tightening rare earth mining quotas and demand from the EV and renewable energy sectors expected to rise, NRE’s strategic partnerships and production expansion could bolster its long-term market position. However, price volatility and uncertain global demand remain key challenges for the rare earth industry in 2025.

IonicRE Rare Earth Oxide Supply to AML Advances US Defence Magnet Chain

Ionic Rare Earth

IonicRE rare earth oxide supply to Advanced Magnet Lab marks a small but strategic step in building a non-China supply route for defence-grade permanent magnets. The Australian rare earths miner, refiner and recycler has started shipping high-purity rare earth oxides from its Belfast recycling facility to the US magnet producer.

IonicRE rare earth oxide supply currently involves kilogram-scale volumes of neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium oxides. The material has 99.5-99.9% purity and will be used by AML to produce high-grade sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets for US defence customers.

IonicRE rare earth oxide supply is important because magnet qualification starts with small, tightly controlled shipments. These early volumes help validate chemistry, process compatibility and performance before larger commercial deliveries begin.

The companies are already discussing a second sale of neodymium and dysprosium. They have also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding for longer-term cooperation, with future commercial volumes likely to reach tonnes in 2027.

Belfast Recycling Turns Magnet Scrap Into Strategic Feedstock

IonicRE’s Belfast facility currently has 10 t/yr of rare earth recycling capacity. While modest, it gives western magnet producers a practical source of recycled rare earth oxides from end-of-life and industrial magnet scrap.

The supply chain includes used NdFeB magnet feedstock from German manufacturer Vacuumschmelze and scrap handler European Metal Recycling. IonicRE also has offtake relationships with automotive companies including Ford, Bentley and Wrightbus.

This structure matters because rare earth recycling can shorten supply chains and improve traceability. It also reduces dependence on newly mined material at a time when rare earth separation and magnet production remain highly concentrated in China.

The company’s planned additional Belfast facility received £12mn from the UK government in January. That plant is expected to produce 400 t/yr of light rare earths neodymium-praseodymium, as well as heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium, by the first half of 2028.

Dysprosium is particularly important for defence magnets because it helps maintain magnetic performance under heat and stress. That makes recycled heavy rare earth recovery strategically valuable, even at relatively small volumes.

AML Link Connects Recycling to Defence Magnet Production

AML will use IonicRE’s oxides to produce high-grade sintered NdFeB magnets for defence applications. This connects recycled rare earth feedstock directly to one of the most sensitive parts of the US critical minerals supply chain.

The US is trying to secure rare earth permanent magnet supply outside China after Beijing imposed export controls on rare earth permanent magnets in April 2025. China controls about 90% of the supply chain, leaving US defence and industrial users exposed to licensing risk.

IonicRE brings a wider rare earth platform to the partnership. The company owns 60% of Uganda’s Makuutu rare earth project, holds a 50% stake in a Brazilian rare earth refining joint venture with Viridis, and has signed an MoU with US Strategic Metals for a Missouri recycling facility.

That portfolio gives IonicRE several possible feedstock and processing routes. But the AML shipment is important because it moves from strategy into physical supply.

The key challenge now is scale. Kilogram shipments can support qualification, but defence and industrial magnet markets will need repeatable tonne-scale supply, consistent purity and reliable delivery.

If IonicRE and AML can move from pilot volumes to commercial supply, the partnership could become a useful building block in the US rare earth magnet chain. It would also show how recycling can complement mining and refining in reducing China exposure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shipment is small in volume but large in strategic meaning. Non-China rare earth supply chains will be built through qualification steps like this, where recycled oxides prove they can become defence-grade magnets.

China Heavy Rare Earth Exports Stall as Curbs Hit Japan and US

Ru

China heavy rare earth exports stalled in May as export restrictions continued to disrupt shipments of terbium, dysprosium and lutetium products to key buyers. The data show how Beijing’s licensing controls are reshaping trade flows for materials used in magnets, defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

China heavy rare earth exports were especially weak for products exposed to US and Japanese demand. China recorded no May exports of terbium oxide, dysprosium metal and several other key heavy rare earth products, while yttrium oxide shipments fell sharply from April.

China heavy rare earth exports are now being driven less by normal spot demand and more by policy clearance, end-use approval and bilateral tensions. This makes supply planning increasingly difficult for downstream users that need small but critical volumes.

Light rare earth exports moved in the opposite direction. Shipments of cerium oxide, lanthanum carbonate and neodymium metal increased in May as stronger downstream demand and firmer export prices encouraged buyers to purchase more material.

Heavy Rare Earth Controls Tighten Supply to Japan

Japan has been the clearest casualty of China’s heavy rare earth restrictions. It was previously a major consumer of Chinese yttrium oxide, accounting for 57-60% of total shipments.

That flow has changed sharply since January, when Beijing banned exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use or any end-use that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The measure followed deteriorating relations after comments on Taiwan by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi.

China exported only 7t of yttrium oxide to Japan in May, while total May yttrium oxide exports fell to 90t from 161t in April. Germany received 55t, France 14t, Russia 6.9t and South Korea 6.2t.

For January-May, China exported 454t of yttrium oxide. South Korea received 111t, Austria 100t, the US 80t, Germany 69t, Vietnam 40t, Russia 20t and Japan only 14t.

Dysprosium flows were also tightly controlled. China exported 8.4t of dysprosium oxide in May, up slightly from April and March, but all shipments in April-May went to South Korea.

Dysprosium metal exports stopped in May after 3t moved to South Korea in April. Exports to Japan have been suspended since January, after 2t was shipped in December 2025.

Terbium exports were even more constrained. China exported no terbium oxide in May after shipping only 0.2t in April. Total January-May exports reached 5.7t, mostly to South Korea.

Terbium metal exports were almost absent in May, while shipments to Japan have been suspended since January. Lutetium oxide exports were also almost absent after 5t moved to the US in April.

Magnet and Aerospace Users Face Licensing Risk

The latest export pattern matters because heavy rare earths are small-volume materials with large strategic importance. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve high-temperature performance in rare earth permanent magnets.

Those magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defence equipment and high-performance industrial motors. Yttrium is also important for ceramics, phosphors, alloys, coatings and aerospace-related applications.

Lutetium is a smaller market, but its supply risk is strategically relevant because many specialty rare earths have few alternative sources. Even small interruptions can affect qualified users because substitution is difficult.

The May data show that South Korea has remained a permitted destination for some heavy rare earth products, especially dysprosium oxide. This could reflect licensing approvals for civilian or qualified end uses.

But the broader message is that buyers cannot rely only on market availability. They must also track export licences, end-user reviews and political relations with Beijing.

The divergence between light and heavy rare earth exports is also important. Light rare earth demand can still rise when prices and downstream consumption support trade, while heavy rare earth flows remain vulnerable to strategic controls.

For non-China supply chains, this reinforces the need for separation, metallization, magnet recycling and heavy rare earth sourcing outside China. However, building that capacity will take time, capital and customer qualification.

Japan’s exposure is especially important because the country has deep magnet, electronics, automotive and precision manufacturing industries. Reduced access to yttrium, dysprosium, terbium and lutetium could force buyers to accelerate inventory strategies and non-China sourcing.

The market should therefore treat May’s export data as more than a trade statistic. It is another signal that heavy rare earth supply is becoming a managed geopolitical channel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s May export data show that rare earth risk is now concentrated in licensing, not only price. For Japan, the US and other advanced manufacturing economies, heavy rare earth security will depend on building supply routes that can survive political friction.

Japan's Growing Reliance on China for Rare Earths

Japan's efforts to diversify its rare earth supply have faced significant setbacks, leading to an increased dependence on China during the first half of this year. Data from Japanese customs shows that Japan imported 9,898 tonnes of rare earth metal equivalents from January to June, a 21% rise compared to the same period last year. China's share of these imports surged to 79.6%, a 6.5 percentage point increase from the previous year.

China's dominance is particularly striking in the import of cerium compounds, with its share rising by 14.8 percentage points to 50.6%, overtaking France as the leading supplier. Additionally, China's share of Japan's cerium oxide and yttrium oxide imports reached 83.5% and 98.7%, respectively, marking increases of 10.6 and 6.6 percentage points from the previous year.

Japan, entirely reliant on foreign sources for rare earths, has struggled to diversify its supply chains. Delays in rare earth projects outside China and low prices have hindered the development of new sources. The Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (Jogmec) reports that despite a global surge in mining and smelting projects, progress remains slow.

A market participant from Metalnomist indicated that weak demand for permanent magnets in Japan might be a factor in the increased reliance on China. The slower growth in electric vehicle production and continued weak demand in sectors like industrial robots have affected overall magnet demand.

Japan's diversification strategy has seen some success with magnet-related rare earths like neodymium. However, lower domestic demand and potentially reduced imports of these materials have resulted in a relatively higher share of imports from China. While Japanese customs data does not detail the breakdown of "other compounds" including neodymium, Chinese customs data shows that China's global exports of neodymium oxide and neodymium metal decreased to 158 tonnes and 69 tonnes respectively from January to May, down by 15.9% and 78.9%.

Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant boosts PrNd supply and prices

Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth

The Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant marks another expansion in China's strategic magnet materials capacity. The Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant will add 10,000 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium metal capacity in Baotou. As a result, the Inner Mongolia Luneng rare earth metal plant will further tighten China’s grip on the global rare earth magnet supply chain.

Baotou strengthens its role as China’s rare earth capital

Inner Mongolia Luneng has secured government approval to build a high-purity rare earth metal line in Baotou. The project will sit inside the rare earth new materials industrial complex at Bayan Obo industrial park. This location links the plant directly to upstream rare earth resources and downstream alloy and magnet makers.

The company will invest Yn265.93mn ($37.35mn) to construct the 10,000 t/yr PrNd metal facility. Construction is expected to take 24 months, although no firm start-up date has been disclosed. However, the project clearly targets surging demand from new energy vehicles, wind turbines, robotics and electronics.

Praseodymium-neodymium metal is the core raw material for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets power traction motors in EVs and generators in modern wind turbines. Therefore, any new PrNd metal capacity in Baotou has direct implications for the global energy transition supply chain.

Praseodymium-neodymium prices climb on tighter spot supply

Spot prices for praseodymium-neodymium metal have risen sharply since late October. Higher oxide feedstock costs, tighter spot availability and stronger magnet sector purchases all support the uptrend. Futures trading on the Zhonglianjin platform has also pushed oxide prices higher, feeding through to metal.

Prices for 99.9pc PrNd metal increased to Yn680-685/kg ex-works by 10 November. That mid-point represents an 11pc gain from late October levels. Meanwhile, 99pc PrNd oxide prices climbed nearly 10pc to Yn557-562/kg over the same period. These moves highlight how quickly sentiment can shift in a relatively concentrated market.

Magnet producers are responding to firm orders from EV, wind and consumer electronics customers. As a result, they are willing to pay higher prices to secure PrNd metal and oxide supplies. In this context, Baotou’s new high-purity capacity could ease domestic tightness while reinforcing China’s pricing influence worldwide.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Luneng’s new PrNd metal project underlines how China continues to invest aggressively along the rare earth magnet value chain. Additional high-purity capacity in Baotou will support local magnet makers but may deepen import dependence for overseas OEMs. Global EV and wind players will closely watch whether new non-Chinese PrNd projects can meaningfully diversify supply before this plant comes online.

Solvay Starts Rare Earth Oxide Refining for Magnet Production

Solvay

La Rochelle Plant Begins Neodymium and Praseodymium Oxide Output

Belgian chemical company Solvay has officially begun refining neodymium and praseodymium oxides for permanent magnets at its La Rochelle facility in France. This expansion marks the company's first step into magnet-grade rare earth oxide production, positioning it as a key player in the European supply chain for critical magnet materials.

The La Rochelle plant, operational since 1948 and owned by Solvay since 2011, previously focused on refining cerium and supplying sectors such as automotive catalysts and healthcare. The new line now enables production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxides, with potential for separating dysprosium and terbium in the future, according to a Solvay spokesperson.

Europe Strengthens Rare Earth Independence

This development comes amid growing urgency in the West to reduce dependency on Chinese rare earths. China’s recent export restrictions on heavy rare earths and magnet materials—announced in response to new U.S. tariffs—have underscored the fragility of global supply chains. These restrictions follow similar export limits on gallium and tungsten, which led to global supply disruptions and price surges.

Solvay’s La Rochelle initiative aligns with Europe’s strategic goal of securing a domestic rare earth supply chain. The company aims to meet 30% of Europe’s demand for magnet-focused rare earth oxides by 2030. Solvay also emphasized the significance of this production line as a major milestone in its contribution to Europe's energy and industrial independence.

Securing Supply Through Recycling and Strategic Partnerships

To ensure consistent feedstock, Solvay has partnered with Canadian firm Cyclic Materials to source recycled mixed rare earth oxide. Additionally, Solvay has a strategic alliance with rare earths services company Carester, which is developing the Caremag refining plant in Lacq, France. These partnerships help diversify sourcing and reduce reliance on virgin materials or imports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Solvay’s magnet-focused rare earth production is a timely and strategic response to rising geopolitical tensions and critical mineral nationalism. As Western economies scramble to localize high-tech material supply chains, Solvay’s effort not only bridges a crucial gap in refining capacity but also sets a precedent for integrating recycling and partnerships into Europe’s rare earth future.

Lynas Rare Earth Revenue Nears Four-Year High as NdPr Output Rises

Lynas Rare Earth

Lynas rare earth revenue reached its highest quarterly level in nearly four years in January-March, supported by stronger rare earth oxide production, higher sales volumes and firmer year-on-year pricing. The Australian producer reported total sales revenue of A$265mn, more than double a year earlier and almost one-third higher than the previous quarter.

Lynas rare earth revenue was underpinned by continued ramp-up across the company’s facilities. The result marks its strongest quarterly sales performance since April-June 2022, showing that operational recovery and strategic offtake demand are beginning to translate into stronger commercial performance.

Lynas produced 3,233t of rare earth oxide during the quarter, up 69% from a year earlier and 36% from the previous quarter. Neodymium-praseodymium oxide output rose to 1,996t, up 32% on the year and 42% on the quarter.

The company also produced its first batch of samarium oxide in March, ahead of its original April target. This matters because samarium supports specialised magnet, defence and high-temperature applications, giving Lynas another product line beyond core NdPr supply.

NdPr Volumes and Price Floors Strengthen Revenue Visibility

Lynas’ sales volumes rose to 3,131t in January-March, up 29% from a year earlier and 33% from the previous quarter. Its average selling price was broadly steady quarter on quarter, but increased by 68% on the year to A$84.60/kg.

The stronger pricing environment supported Lynas rare earth revenue at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on non-China supply. NdPr remains the core feedstock for rare earth permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, industrial motors and defence systems.

The company also secured several major offtake agreements during the quarter. On 16 March, Lynas signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defence covering a $96mn light and heavy rare earth oxide supply deal over more than four years.

That agreement includes a price floor of $110/kg for NdPr. Price floors are strategically important because they protect non-China suppliers from price downturns that could otherwise undermine project economics.

Lynas also expanded its rare earth supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths on 10 March. Under the deal, Jare will buy at least 5,000 t/yr of NdPr oxide at a price floor of $110/kg and 50% of Lynas’ heavy rare earth output until 2038.

Lynas will supply Japanese producers with up to 7,200 t/yr of NdPr oxide and 75% of its heavy rare earth oxide output over the agreement period. This gives Japan a stronger long-term supply channel while giving Lynas more predictable demand.

Heavy Rare Earths and Metal Production Define the Next Growth Phase

Lynas’ stronger quarter comes as western governments and industrial buyers try to build rare earth supply chains outside China. The company already has a strategic position because it combines upstream mining with rare earth processing capability.

The next growth phase will depend on heavy rare earths and downstream metal production. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and samarium are critical for high-performance magnets operating under heat, stress and demanding industrial conditions.

The expanded Japanese agreement gives Lynas a commercial route for future heavy rare earth output. This could strengthen supply security for automotive, electronics, robotics and clean-energy manufacturers seeking alternatives to China-dominated rare earth flows.

Lynas is also exploring rare earth metal production outside China, including a potential project in Vietnam with South Korea’s LS Eco Energy. This step is strategically important because rare earth oxides alone do not complete the magnet supply chain.

Oxides must be converted into metals and alloys before magnet makers can produce finished permanent magnets. Building metal-making capability outside China would move Lynas further downstream and improve its role in the ex-China magnet ecosystem.

The company’s quarterly performance therefore reflects more than a revenue rebound. It shows a shift toward long-term offtake, price protection, heavy rare earth supply and downstream integration.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas rare earth revenue shows that non-China rare earth suppliers are gaining stronger commercial support from governments and strategic buyers. The key test now is whether Lynas can convert higher oxide output into deeper metal and magnet supply-chain capability outside China.

MP Materials NdPr Production Rises as US Magnet Supply Chain Expands

MP Materials

MP Materials NdPr production rose sharply in the first quarter as the US rare earth producer increased output of the key magnet feedstock used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced manufacturing.

MP Materials NdPr production reached 917t of neodymium-praseodymium oxide in January-March, up 63% from a year earlier. The company also sold 1,006t of NdPr oxides during the quarter, including initial shipments to its newest US customer.

MP Materials NdPr production is strategically important because NdPr oxide remains the most important input for rare earth permanent magnet production. The company believes NdPr access will remain the main constraint on economically viable magnet production outside China for at least the next five years.

The company produced just under 13,000t of rare earth oxides in the first quarter. Its loss narrowed to $8mn on revenue of $91mn, compared with a loss of $23mn on revenue of $61mn a year earlier.

NdPr Price Floor Supports US Supply Chain Economics

MP expects its realised NdPr price in the second quarter to be in the low-to-mid $90/kg range. However, its public-private partnership with the US Department of Defense provides a $110/kg price floor.

That structure is commercially important. If MP sells below the floor, the partnership offsets the difference between the realised price and $110/kg.

The price floor gives MP stronger revenue visibility while it expands downstream rare earth capacity. It also shows how the US government is using market-support tools to build domestic supply chains for strategic materials.

This is critical because rare earth magnet supply outside China still faces weak economics, limited scale and high qualification barriers. A price floor can help bridge the gap between strategic supply security and market pricing.

MP is also advancing its magnet business. The company expects initial magnet revenue in the second half of 2026 as it develops new magnet grades and customer specifications.

The magnet strategy includes improved chemistry and materially lower heavy rare earth content. This matters because dysprosium and terbium are expensive, supply-constrained and heavily exposed to Chinese processing dominance.

If MP can reduce heavy rare earth intensity while maintaining magnet performance, it could improve cost competitiveness and reduce supply-chain risk.

Heavy Rare Earth Separation Adds Strategic Optionality

MP is commissioning its heavy rare earth separation circuit before July and expects to produce dysprosium and terbium later this year. It also plans to produce high-purity samarium oxide, with potential gadolinium oxide and other heavy rare earth products depending on market attractiveness.

The company’s position on heavy rare earths is selective. MP does not want upstream project ownership in heavy rare earths and is instead focused on diversifying its feedstock supply chain.

That strategy reflects a practical view of the rare earth market. Heavy rare earths are strategically important, but MP sees NdPr oxide as the binding constraint for non-China magnet production.

MP expects dysprosium and terbium prices to decline substantially because it believes they are secondary to the larger NdPr bottleneck. This view suggests that the company sees heavy rare earth scarcity as important, but not as decisive as securing sufficient NdPr oxide.

Midstream metalization remains another challenge. MP currently uses toll processors and is discussing options with domestic and international partners.

The company expects to continue using toll processing while exploring low-cost metalization routes globally. This shows that the US rare earth chain still has gaps between oxide production, metal conversion, alloying and final magnet manufacturing.

For the wider market, MP’s first-quarter performance is an important signal. The US is gradually moving from rare earth mining and oxide output toward a more integrated magnet supply chain, but every step requires qualification, processing capacity, customer acceptance and policy support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MP’s stronger NdPr output shows that the US rare earth strategy is moving from resource ownership toward usable magnet feedstock. The price floor is the key industrial signal: Washington is now willing to support market economics where strategic supply chains cannot yet compete with China on price alone.

IonicRE Rare Earth Recycling Deal Targets Ex-China Magnet Supply Gap

Ionic rare earths

IonicRE rare earth recycling plans have gained a technology boost after the Australian rare earths miner, refiner and recycler signed a licensing agreement with US refiner Nth Cycle. The deal gives Ionic Rare Earths access to electro-extraction technology for its US and global recycling operations.

IonicRE rare earth recycling will focus on recovering rare earth oxides from neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet dust. These oxides can then be reused in the production of new rare earth magnets.

IonicRE rare earth recycling is strategically important because magnet supply chains outside China remain weak in midstream processing and recycling. The agreement helps address that gap by adding technology that can convert magnet waste into reusable rare earth oxide products.

Nth Cycle’s technology can break down NdFeB magnet dust into rare earth oxides. This supports circular supply chains for materials used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced electronics.

NdFeB Magnet Dust Becomes a Strategic Feedstock

NdFeB magnet recycling is becoming more important as demand for rare earth permanent magnets grows. Magnet production generates upstream and downstream dust, and that material contains valuable neodymium, praseodymium and heavy rare earth elements.

IonicRE already has proprietary technology for recycling REPM metal dust. Nth Cycle’s electro-extraction process adds another capability and fills a specific midstream gap in the ex-China recycling chain.

The technology could be used at IonicRE’s Belfast recycling facility in Northern Ireland. It may also support the company’s 50:50 joint venture with Viridis at a planned recycling facility in Brazil.

The US is another important target. IonicRE already supplies technology to US Strategic Metals’ Missouri recycling facility, which is expected to recover neodymium-praseodymium oxide and heavy rare earths including dysprosium, terbium, samarium, gadolinium and holmium.

This matters because recycling can reduce dependence on mined supply and improve traceability. It can also create shorter, more secure material loops for magnet makers and industrial users.

Recycling Adds Depth to Ex-China Rare Earth Supply

IonicRE remains a small player in the global rare earth chain, but its strategy connects mining, refining and recycling. The company owns 60% of the Makuutu rare earth project in Uganda, which contains 617mn t of ore grading 630ppm total rare earth oxide.

The recycling technology agreement adds another route to supply. Rather than relying only on new mined material, IonicRE can target waste streams from magnet production and end-use supply chains.

This is important because China still dominates rare earth refining. China accounted for 91% of global rare earth refining in 2024, leaving western and allied supply chains exposed to processing concentration.

Recycling will not replace primary rare earth mining. But it can provide incremental supply, improve resilience and help build processing expertise outside China.

The real value lies in integration. Recovered rare earth oxides must be refined, qualified, converted into metals or alloys, and returned to magnet production.

IonicRE’s agreement with Nth Cycle therefore supports a wider strategic goal. It helps build the technical infrastructure needed for a circular rare earth magnet supply chain outside China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IonicRE’s licensing deal shows that rare earth recycling is moving from sustainability language into supply-chain strategy. The key opportunity is not only recovering magnet waste, but turning it into qualified oxide feedstock that can support non-China magnet production.

REalloys Rare Earth Offtake Strengthens US Magnet Supply Chain

REalloys Rare Earth

REalloys rare earth offtake plans have advanced after the US rare earth producer agreed to secure up to 10% of output from US Critical Materials’ Sheep Creek project in Montana. The agreement gives REalloys a potential domestic feedstock route for its midstream and downstream rare earth operations.

The REalloys rare earth offtake framework covers material from Sheep Creek, a rare earth deposit in Ravalli County with a reported total rare earth grade near 9%. US Critical Materials said the project includes 2.4% neodymium and praseodymium, which are essential inputs for high-performance permanent magnets.

REalloys rare earth offtake volumes were not disclosed. However, the agreement is strategically relevant because the material is intended to support US defense stockpiles and rare earth processing capacity inside North America.

Sheep Creek Adds Domestic Feedstock to Rare Earth Strategy

The Sheep Creek project could become an important domestic source of rare earth material if permitting and development proceed as planned. The project is listed under the Fast-41 transparency process, with environmental review and permitting expected to be completed in May 2027.

The project’s neodymium-praseodymium content gives it direct relevance to the magnet supply chain. NdPr is used in neodymium-iron-boron magnets that support electric motors, defense systems, robotics, wind turbines, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

The agreement also highlights a wider US strategy. Washington is trying to reduce reliance on imported rare earth materials by connecting domestic deposits with separation, metallization, magnet production and strategic stockpile demand.

Metallization Capacity Becomes the Next Bottleneck

REalloys is building a rare earth metallization facility in Ohio to convert rare earth oxides into 3,000 t/yr of high-purity metals. That output is intended to support 10,000 t/yr of neodymium-iron-boron magnet production.

This matters because rare earth supply security does not end at mining or oxide production. Oxides must be converted into metals and alloys before they can become finished magnets for defense, automotive and industrial customers.

REalloys also has a partnership with Canada’s Saskatchewan Research Council to acquire 80% of SRC’s rare earth oxide and metals output. The Sheep Creek agreement adds another upstream supply option, strengthening the company’s attempt to build a more integrated North American rare earth chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The REalloys-USCM agreement shows that the US rare earth race is moving toward integrated supply chains, not isolated mine projects. The decisive bottleneck will be whether domestic ore, oxide supply, metallization and magnet manufacturing can scale together before strategic demand outpaces capacity.