Rio Tinto Hydropower Investment of $1.2 Billion Secures Low-Carbon Aluminum Future

Rio tinto Aluminium

Rio Tinto hydropower investment reaches $1.2 billion for modernizing the Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Quebec, Canada. The massive Rio Tinto hydropower upgrade represents the mining giant's largest investment in hydroelectric assets since the 1950s, targeting sustainable aluminum production at its Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations through 2032.

Comprehensive Modernization Enhances Production Capacity

Rio Tinto hydropower modernization encompasses extensive infrastructure improvements across multiple facility components. The project will replace electrical and mechanical equipment throughout the Isle-Maligne plant while constructing facility extensions and new mechanical workshops. Additionally, engineers will improve water intake systems and hydraulic passages to optimize power generation efficiency.

Meanwhile, the upgrade includes critical spillway modifications enabling year-round operations during Canadian winter conditions. These enhancements ensure continuous power supply for aluminum smelting operations regardless of seasonal weather challenges. The comprehensive scope demonstrates Rio Tinto's commitment to long-term operational reliability in Quebec's challenging climate.

Strategic Investment Supports Integrated Aluminum Operations

However, the Isle-Maligne facility serves as a cornerstone for Rio Tinto's extensive Quebec aluminum infrastructure. The Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations include one alumina refinery, five wholly owned aluminum smelters, and six hydropower plants. These integrated facilities account for nearly half of Rio Tinto's global aluminum output, making reliable power generation essential.

Therefore, the modernization project directly impacts Rio Tinto's competitive position in North American aluminum markets. Sebastien Ross, Rio Tinto Aluminium's managing director for Atlantic operations, emphasized that the investment ensures long-term competitiveness for Canadian and American customers. The low-carbon aluminum production capability provides significant marketing advantages in environmentally conscious markets.

Decades-Long Commitment to Sustainable Metal Production

Furthermore, the $1.2 billion investment timeline extends through 2032, demonstrating Rio Tinto's long-term commitment to Quebec operations. The hydroelectric power source enables low-carbon aluminum production, aligning with global sustainability trends and regulatory requirements. This positioning strengthens Rio Tinto's market differentiation in premium aluminum segments.

As a result, the modernization project reinforces Quebec's role as a strategic aluminum production hub for North American markets. The combination of abundant hydroelectric resources, existing infrastructure, and skilled workforce creates competitive advantages that justify substantial capital investment in facility upgrades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto's $1.2 billion hydropower investment exemplifies how integrated mining companies leverage renewable energy assets to maintain competitive advantages in commodity markets. The project's scale and timeline demonstrate the capital intensity required to modernize aging industrial infrastructure while positioning aluminum operations for decades of low-carbon production in increasingly sustainability-focused markets.

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender secures world’s biggest hydropower project

Baogang rare earth

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender underscores China’s push into strategic infrastructure. The steelmaker will supply 62,000t for the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dam. As a result, Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender signals rising demand for special steels and rare earth inputs.

Scope and investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo dam

China began constructing the world’s biggest hydropower dam on 19 July. The project sits in Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The investment totals Yn1.2 trillion, the tender announcement said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect 4–6mn t of special steel demand. That far exceeds prior hydropower builds in China.

Baogang rare earth alloy steel tender aligns with upstream strengths

Baogang United Steel will ship rare earth alloy steels for core structures. The company leads plate supply across northwest China. It targets 2025 output of 15.64mn t of crude steel. It also plans 390,000t of rare earth concentrate and 650,000t of fluorite concentrate. Baogang owns the Bayan Obo rare earth mine in Inner Mongolia. Northern Rare Earth purchases all of Baogang’s concentrate. Baogang holds 37% of NRE, while Baotou Steel is the largest shareholder in both firms.

Pipeline of national projects reinforces demand

Baogang has supplied steel to major national projects in Tibet. These included the Qinghai-Xizang and Lhasa-Nyingchi railways. It also delivered to the Lalo water conservancy hub. Therefore, the new hydropower award should lift sales and earnings. The firm reported Yn15.433bn in first-quarter revenue, down 13% year on year. Net profit fell 29.33% in the same period. However, the tender adds volume visibility as construction ramps.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This award tightens the link between rare earth mining and advanced steel demand. Expect stronger pricing power for alloy plate with rare earth additions as project steel calls peak. Watch Northern Rare Earth flows from Bayan Obo for signals on alloying element availability and costs.

May sets a new monthly high for global aluminum production

aluminum

In May, global aluminum production reached a new monthly record, driven largely by continued increases in China, where recent heavy rains in Yunnan province restored hydropower capacities, allowing the lifting of previous power restrictions.

According to International Aluminium, the worldwide production of aluminum surged to 6.13 million tons in May, marking a 3.44 percent increase year-over-year. Daily production also saw a rise to 197,900 tons per day, up from the 196,900 tons per day reported in April.

In China, aluminum production jumped nearly 5 percent from last year to 3.65 million tons, approaching the record levels seen in October. Yunnan’s aluminum facilities, previously offline, are now operational again.

Hydropower generation in China has increased by 8.4 percent in the first four months of the year, spurred by heavy and record-breaking rainfall in Guangdong province, enhancing the water supply for hydropower in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.

Production gains were also noted in other parts of the world. North America’s output rose nearly 3 percent to 338,000 tons, while Western Europe experienced a more than 3 percent increase to 236,000 tons, driven by increased activity at Trimet’s aluminum smelting operations in Germany and France.

Elsewhere in Asia (excluding China), aluminum production rose nearly 3 percent to 407,000 tons in April. South American output saw a significant increase of nearly 6 percent to 129,000 tons.

Production in Russia and Eastern Europe grew by approximately 2.35 percent to 348,000 tons, and output in Australasia was up nearly 2 percent to 163,000 tons.

However, production dipped slightly in the Middle East by less than 1 percent to 525,000 tons, and in Africa, it fell by over 5 percent to 129,000 tons.

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange were notably volatile throughout May, fluctuating between a low of $2,530 per ton on May 8 and a high of $2,741 per ton on May 29, with prices moving erratically between those dates. Prices have trended downward in June, settling around $2,500 per ton so far.

Kuntian Anode Plant Phase Two Targets December Start Amid Yunnan Capacity Boom

Kuntian

Kuntian anode plant phase two strengthens silicon-carbon supply

Kuntian anode plant phase two will start production by late December. The project adds 40,000 t/yr of silicon-carbon anodes. Kuntian anode plant phase two follows a first phase launched in January 2023. The first phase also holds 40,000 t/yr of capacity. Kuntian anode plant phase two slipped from 2023 because funding fell short. However, the company has revived timelines and execution.

Yunnan’s hydropower hub draws major anode producers

Yunnan offers cheap hydropower and stable power access. Therefore, producers cluster in Dali, Kunming, Qujing, and Yuxi. BTR started a 50,000 t/yr line in June 2025. Shanshan began 200,000 t/yr in January 2024. Zhongke launched 50,000 t/yr in June 2024. Its second 50,000 t/yr line starts this December. Yunnan’s total anode capacity has reached 510,000 t/yr.

Strong NEV demand supports rapid anode expansion. China produced 8.23mn NEVs in January–July, up 39% year on year. CAAM expects domestic sales near 16mn in 2025. Meanwhile, Kuntian produced 30,800t of anodes in 2024. That share equaled roughly 2% of national output. The firm also plans a third phase of 50,000 t/yr. However, it has not disclosed construction dates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan’s hydropower arbitrage underpins cost and carbon advantages. Kuntian’s timed ramp aligns with peak NEV seasonality and new model launches. Watch third-phase timing and silicon-carbon adoption rates across premium cells.

Baogang wins rare earth alloy steel tender

Baogang

Baogang wins rare earth alloy steel tender for the world’s biggest hydropower dam. The contract covers 62,000t of rare earth alloy steels for the Yarlung Tsangpo project. As a result, demand signals strengthen for special steels and rare earth inputs.

Tender underscores China’s megaproject steel needs

Baogang wins rare earth alloy steel tender as construction started on 19 July. The Tibet project targets record hydropower capacity and unprecedented steel intensity. Industry estimates suggest 4–6mn t of special steel will be required. Meanwhile, Baogang’s plate capacity and alloy know-how position it well for execution.

Vertical integration links alloy steels and rare earths

Baogang wins rare earth alloy steel tender while leveraging Bayan Obo resources. The group controls one of the largest rare earth mines with 35mn t REO reserves. It sells all concentrate to Northern Rare Earth, where it holds a 37pc stake. This integration supports alloying elements and process stability for long-lead deliveries.

Baogang expands volumes across core products in 2025. Targets include 14.62mn t iron, 15.64mn t crude steel, and 14.76mn t billets. Plans also include 390,000t of rare earth concentrate and 650,000t of fluorite concentrate. Therefore, the dam award should lift utilization and product mix quality.

Project momentum could aid Baogang’s financials after a softer first quarter. January–March revenue reached Yn15.433bn, down 13pc year on year. Net profits fell by 29.33pc, highlighting price and cost pressures. However, the tender should boost steel sales and margins as deliveries ramp.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This award tightens the link between China’s infrastructure push and rare earth alloy steel demand. Expect knock-on effects for special steel pricing and magnet-grade rare earth flows. Suppliers should align production schedules with the project’s backloaded steel demand curve.

IEA Membership Expansion Brings India and Brazil Closer to the Center of Global Energy Governance

IEA Membership

IEA membership expansion is entering a new phase with India and Brazil moving toward full membership. Colombia will also upgrade to full membership, while Vietnam will join as an associate member. This shift matters because IEA membership expansion broadens the agency far beyond its traditional western base.

The move reflects a longer strategic effort by the IEA. Fatih Birol said the agency adopted this expansion approach 10 years ago. That effort has steadily increased the organisation’s global reach and relevance. As a result, IEA membership expansion now looks like a structural change in global energy governance.

This matters because the new members bring major energy and resource weight. Brazil and Colombia add crude production and hydropower importance. Colombia also brings significant copper reserves. Therefore, IEA membership expansion connects energy policy more closely with critical minerals and industrial supply chains.

India IEA Membership and Brazil IEA Membership Strengthen the Agency’s Global Reach

India IEA membership is especially important because India is one of the world’s most important energy growth markets. Bringing India into full membership gives the IEA stronger credibility in the global south. It also gives the agency deeper relevance in future demand and transition debates. Consequently, India IEA membership strengthens the organisation’s long-term strategic position.

Brazil IEA membership is equally meaningful for different reasons. Brazil combines major natural resource strength with energy diversity, including hydropower and crude production. That gives the IEA another influential voice from a resource-rich economy with growing geopolitical importance. As a result, Brazil IEA membership adds both energy weight and broader regional influence.

Colombia and Vietnam also matter in this expansion. Colombia’s move to full membership deepens Latin American representation. Vietnam’s associate membership gives the IEA stronger access to one of Asia’s most dynamic industrial economies. Meanwhile, the combined shift makes the organisation more representative of real global energy demand.

Global Energy Governance Is Becoming Less Western and More Strategic

Global energy governance is changing because energy systems are no longer shaped only by a narrow group of advanced economies. The IEA said its members now account for 80pc of global energy usage, up from 38pc in 2015. That is a major shift in institutional reach. Therefore, IEA membership expansion is also a story about relevance and legitimacy.

The broader implication is clear. Energy security, industrial policy, and critical minerals now overlap more than before. An agency that wants to shape those debates needs broader participation from large producers, consumers, and emerging powers. As a result, global energy governance is becoming more strategic and more geographically diverse.

This expansion also matters for industrial supply chains. Countries such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia sit closer to future growth in manufacturing, raw materials, and energy demand. Their stronger presence inside the IEA could influence how the agency addresses transition, affordability, and supply security. Consequently, IEA membership expansion may shape not only energy policy, but also wider industrial strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is more than a membership update. It is a sign that global energy institutions must now reflect a wider set of producers, consumers, and resource holders. If the IEA wants to remain central in energy and critical minerals policy, this broader membership base is not optional. It is necessary.

China Sets Monthly Record for Aluminum Production in June

China's aluminum production reached a new high in June, driven by capacity expansions in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of production in Yunnan province following heavy summer rainfall. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced 3.67 million tons of aluminum in June, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, setting a new monthly record. In the first half of the year, production rose 6.9% from the same period in 2023, totaling 21.55 million tons.

The restart of previously curtailed production in Yunnan was facilitated by improved hydropower conditions, following significant rainfall over the past few months. China's hydropower generation increased by 8.4% from January to April, benefiting provinces like Sichuan and Yunnan due to record rains in Guangdong.

Additionally, capacity expansions in Inner Mongolia contributed to the increased output, encouraged by higher aluminum prices. In late May, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum prices peaked at around 21,530 yuan ($2,970/ton), up from below 19,000 yuan in the first quarter. However, prices have since settled to around 20,000 yuan.

Despite the production surge, demand in China has not kept pace, leading to a rise in stock levels. Deliverable aluminum stocks in SHFE warehouses hit a 15-month high at the end of last week.

Rusal Begins Commercial Production of Low-Carbon Foundry Alloys

Rusal

Post-Consumer Scrap Boosts Low-Carbon Aluminium Output

Russian aluminium producer Rusal has commenced commercial production of low-carbon foundry alloys at its Irkutsk aluminium smelter. The new production line integrates post-consumer scrap into Rusal’s Allow brand, which is manufactured using renewable hydropower. This move strengthens the company’s position in the growing low-carbon aluminium market.

Rusal began trial production in early 2023 with scrap accounting for around 20% of feedstock. The proportion has now increased to approximately 40% for commercial output. According to the company, the process involves adding consumer scrap to molten low-carbon aluminium, ensuring both emissions reduction and efficient resource use.

Targeting the Automotive Industry’s Sustainability Demands

The adoption of low-carbon foundry alloys is driven by rising demand from industries prioritizing sustainability, particularly automotive manufacturing. Rusal aims to supply customers seeking environmentally responsible aluminium units for casting components. By combining recycled materials with hydropower-based aluminium production, the company aligns with global carbon reduction goals and offers a competitive advantage in markets with strict sustainability standards.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rusal’s integration of post-consumer scrap into low-carbon aluminium reflects a critical industry trend toward circular production models. The ability to meet both environmental targets and performance standards will be key in capturing market share in sectors like automotive, where sustainability is becoming a procurement requirement. This approach also demonstrates how aluminium producers can reduce emissions without compromising product quality.

Record Temperatures 2026-30 Forecast Raises Climate Risk for Industry

WMO

Record temperatures 2026-30 are likely to keep global heat at or near historic highs, according to a report produced by the UK’s Met Office for the World Meteorological Organization. The forecast points to average annual global near-surface temperatures of 1.3°C-1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

Record temperatures 2026-30 would extend a period of exceptional heat after 2023-25 became the three hottest years on record. The report also gives an 86% chance that at least one year in 2026-30 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Record temperatures 2026-30 carry direct implications for energy, mining, agriculture, logistics and industrial manufacturing. Higher heat levels can increase power demand, strain grids, disrupt water availability and raise operating risk for resource industries.

The outlook also reinforces the gap between climate targets and current warming trends. The Paris Agreement seeks to keep temperature rises well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Temporary Threshold Breaches Increase Policy Pressure

The report found a 91% chance that global average near-surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also found a 75% likelihood that the five-year mean will breach the same threshold.

That does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal has formally failed. The agreement’s thresholds refer to sustained warming over an extended period, typically measured over about 20 years.

However, temporary breaches still matter. They increase pressure on governments to accelerate emissions cuts, expand renewable power, improve energy efficiency and strengthen climate adaptation policies.

For metals and mining, this creates a two-sided market effect. Stronger climate action supports demand for copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, rare earths and electrical steel used in grids, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy.

At the same time, higher temperatures increase operational risk. Mines, smelters, refineries and transport corridors can face more heat stress, water constraints, power reliability problems and weather-related disruption.

El Nino Risk Adds Volatility to Industrial Planning

The past 11 years have been the warmest on record, mainly because of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The report said anomalous warmth was widespread in 2021-25, even though La Nina conditions prevailed in four of those five years.

The forecast now points to a tendency toward El Nino conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028. El Nino typically raises global temperatures, while La Nina usually has a cooling effect.

This matters because El Nino can intensify weather volatility. Heat, drought, floods and shifting rainfall patterns can affect hydropower, crop output, transport, mine operations and energy markets.

Industrial companies will need to treat climate risk as an operating variable, not only a sustainability issue. Power security, water management, site resilience and supply-chain redundancy will become more important in capital planning.

The report’s use of predictions from 13 institutes adds weight to the outlook. The central message is that high-temperature years are becoming more frequent as underlying global warming approaches key climate thresholds.

For resource markets, that means climate policy and physical climate risk will increasingly shape demand, costs and investment decisions at the same time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The WMO outlook shows that climate risk is moving from long-term scenario planning into near-term industrial reality. Metals demand will benefit from decarbonisation, but producers must also prepare for hotter, more volatile operating conditions.

Low-Carbon Aluminum Data Center Cables Advance Through Rio Tinto and Prysmian Trial

Prysmian low carbon aluminum

Low-carbon aluminum data center cables are moving from concept toward industrial validation as Rio Tinto and Prysmian complete a trial using cleaner aluminum feedstock. The partnership links primary aluminum production, cable manufacturing, and fast-growing electricity demand from digital infrastructure.

Rio Tinto produced aluminum rod for the trial using a blend of hydro-powered aluminum from its Alma smelter in Quebec and aluminum made through Elysis technology. Prysmian then used the material pathway to test low-carbon aluminum cable production for data center applications.

The trial forms part of a five-year supply agreement signed in 2023 between Rio Tinto and Prysmian. That deal focuses on low-carbon aluminum made with renewable hydropower from Rio Tinto’s Canadian operations.

Data Center Growth Raises Demand for Cleaner Conductors

Low-carbon aluminum data center cables matter because power infrastructure is becoming a larger part of the data center supply chain. Data centers require large volumes of cable, busbar, grid equipment, and electrical distribution systems as operators expand capacity for cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

Aluminum offers a strategic balance between conductivity, weight, cost, and availability. For cable manufacturers, lower-carbon aluminum can help reduce the embedded emissions of electrical infrastructure without changing the core role of aluminum as a conductor material.

Prysmian’s involvement is important because cable producers sit close to the final customer. If data center owners increasingly ask for lower-carbon materials, cable manufacturers will need stable access to verified low-carbon aluminum supply.

Elysis Technology Remains Strategic but Not Yet Scaled

Elysis aluminum gives the trial a deeper industrial meaning. The Rio Tinto and Alcoa joint venture is developing an emissions-neutral smelting process that could reduce the carbon footprint of primary aluminum production.

However, Elysis aluminum remains in development and is not yet available in large production quantities. This limits near-term commercial impact but supports longer-term qualification work with downstream users such as Prysmian.

Rio Tinto’s hydro-powered Canadian aluminum provides the scalable base for the current supply relationship. Elysis material adds a future-facing technology layer that could become more important if industrial buyers push harder for lower-emission metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Low-carbon aluminum data center cables show how digital infrastructure is reshaping metals demand beyond chips and servers. The next competitive advantage may come from verified low-carbon supply chains for the electrical backbone behind data centers.

Energy Security Investment Rises as IEA Sees $3.4 Trillion Global Spend

IEA

Energy security investment is accelerating as the war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz push governments and companies to diversify supply. The IEA expects global energy investment to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026.

Energy security investment is now shifting strongly toward electricity, grids, storage, renewables, nuclear, low-emissions fuels and efficiency. The IEA expects around $2.2 trillion to flow into these areas, compared with about $1.2 trillion for fossil fuels.

Energy security investment also carries direct metals implications. More spending on grids, storage, solar, wind, nuclear and electrification will support demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical materials.

The IEA described the current crisis as the largest energy security crisis the world has faced. It expects decision-makers to prioritise resilience, diversification and trusted energy partners.

Electricity Spending Becomes the Core Security Response

Electricity-related investment is becoming the dominant theme in global energy spending. The IEA expects investment in electricity supply and infrastructure to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026.

That figure rises to about $2 trillion when end-use electrification is included. This shows that energy security is no longer only about oil and gas supply. It is increasingly about reliable power systems.

Power grids will be central to this shift. Grid expansion, storage deployment and electrification require large volumes of copper, aluminium and electrical equipment.

Renewables will also remain a major investment channel. The IEA expects renewables spending to reach around $665bn in 2026, including $365bn for solar, $200bn for wind and $75bn for hydropower.

Annual renewables spending growth has moderated because of lower technology costs and policy changes in China and the US. However, low-emissions sources still account for more than 70% of global power investment.

The metals signal is clear. Energy security policy is reinforcing the same material demand base already supported by decarbonisation. Grid metals, battery materials and renewable energy inputs remain structurally important.

Fuel Supply Shock Keeps Fossil Investment Alive

Fossil fuel investment is also rising in selected areas. Total fossil fuel supply investment is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, returning to 2024 levels.

Oil investment is expected to fall for a third consecutive year to below $500bn. Long project lead times, supply-chain limits, offshore rig tightness and uncertainty over the duration of the price spike are limiting near-term spending outside the Middle East.

Natural gas investment is moving in the opposite direction. The IEA expects gas investment to reach $330bn, the highest level in a decade, supported by LNG export projects and demand from data centres.

Coal investment is also expected to rise to $180bn, the highest level since 2012. Around 70% of that spending is expected in China, while some Asian countries may keep existing coal-fired power plants running longer to protect energy security.

The IEA said past investments in renewables, nuclear, efficiency and electrification have already improved energy security in major fuel-importing regions. It estimated that China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia and India avoided around $260bn in fossil fuel imports in 2025.

The conflict is also forcing a search for new energy export routes to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Repair costs for damaged energy infrastructure are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars.

For industrial markets, the result is a more complex energy outlook. Electricity investment is rising fast, but gas and coal remain part of short-term security planning. That mix will shape metals demand, energy costs and industrial competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s outlook shows that energy security and electrification are now the same investment story. The winners will be supply chains that can deliver grids, storage, renewables and critical minerals at scale while reducing exposure to fragile fuel routes.

Ecuador Aims to Boost Copper Exports by 10–14% in 2025

Ecuador Copper Mining

Power Stability Set to Restore Ecuador's Copper Output

Ecuador plans to increase copper exports by 10–14% in 2025, targeting a return to 2023 shipment levels. Vice Minister of Mining Rebeca Illescas confirmed the outlook, following a 14% export decline in 2024 due to power outages.

The Mirador mine, operated by Chinese-owned Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, contributes over 90% of Ecuador's copper concentrate output. Severe drought in late 2024 slashed hydropower supply and triggered 88 days of scheduled electricity cuts, impacting mining productivity. Now, the mine has restored full power and is importing thermoelectric systems to ensure stability by May.

Infrastructure and Weather Challenges Still Linger

Ecuador rented 1GW of thermoelectric capacity to prevent further blackouts, said Vice Minister of Electricity Fabian Calero. This improved stability has already helped copper exports rebound in early 2025, with January shipments up 38% from December.

However, copper export volumes in January were still 37% lower than the same month in 2024. Heavy rains in early 2025 damaged transportation infrastructure, further limiting copper movement to export terminals. Despite lower volumes, improved pricing led to a 40% month-on-month increase in export value, reaching $110 million in January.

Ecsa contributed $53 million in royalties for 2023–2024 copper exports, marking a 29% increase over the prior period.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador's strategy to stabilize copper exports underscores the growing linkage between energy resilience and mineral trade flows. With Chinese investment entrenched in Ecuador's copper mining and export network, the success of thermoelectric backup systems will shape the country's ability to compete as a regional copper supplier—especially as Peru and Chile face their own bottlenecks. Prices remain strong, but risks from climate and logistics persist.

Uganda’s Kilembe Copper and Cobalt Mine Targets 2027 Restart

Sarrai group

Uganda’s Kilembe copper and cobalt mine is set to resume production by 2027 following a new redevelopment initiative led by the Africa-based Sarrai Group. The mine, which contains over 4 million tonnes of copper and an undisclosed quantity of cobalt, has been inactive since 1982 due to outdated infrastructure and economic pressures. Its restart is part of Uganda’s broader strategy to harness critical mineral assets for industrial growth and export competitiveness. The Kilembe copper and cobalt mine is strategically located in western Uganda and is connected by rail to a smelter in Jinja, enhancing its logistical potential once operations begin.

Sarrai Group Steps In After Failed Chinese Bid

The Ugandan government recently signed a production-sharing agreement with the Sarrai Group and local firm Nile Fibreboard to redevelop the mine after the previous operator, China’s Tibet Hima Mining, failed to deliver on its concession. The former operator’s delays, including an unsuccessful attempt to export 30,000 tonnes of copper to China for testing, led to the termination of their contract in 2023. In contrast, Sarrai Group has pledged to complete the project by 2027 and has already begun preliminary activities, including site assessment, asset rehabilitation, and community engagement. The full 2,800-acre site—much of it still unexplored—has been reclaimed by the government and allocated to Sarrai to expand the resource base of the Kilembe copper and cobalt mine.

A New Chapter for Uganda’s Critical Mineral Strategy

Although the exact investment amount has not been disclosed, previous plans by Tibet Hima included a $135 million commitment, a smelter construction, and a hydropower upgrade at Mubuku I from 5MW to 12MW—targets that may still shape Sarrai’s approach. As global demand for copper and cobalt accelerates in response to the clean energy transition, Kilembe’s redevelopment could position Uganda as a regional supplier of essential battery metals. The revival of the Kilembe copper and cobalt mine also reflects a growing trend among African governments to reclaim and reactivate dormant but strategic mineral assets in alignment with national industrial goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kilembe’s restart signals Uganda’s entry into the global race for battery minerals. If Sarrai Group delivers on its timeline and investment, the site could emerge as a crucial copper and cobalt source in East Africa’s mining ecosystem.

Global Aluminium Production Hits Record Daily Output in June

Global aluminium production achieved a record-high daily output last month, driven by capacity expansions in China’s Inner Mongolia and restarts in Yunnan province following robust summer rainfall.

According to data from International Aluminium, global production reached 5.94 million tonnes in June, up by 3.18% year-on-year. Although total production fell below the revised May figure of 6.14 million tonnes due to June being a shorter month, daily output increased to 198,000 tonnes in June from 197,900 tonnes in May.

Chinese production rose by 4.22% year-on-year to 3.53 million tonnes. However, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that June output reached 3.67 million tonnes.

The output boost was attributed to the restart of previously curbed production capacity in Yunnan province. Power restrictions had been implemented earlier this year due to limited hydropower availability, but these restrictions were lifted following heavy rainfall in recent months. Additionally, capacity expansions in Inner Mongolia contributed to increased production, spurred by higher aluminium prices.

Production also grew across most other regions. North American output rose by 1.25% year-on-year to 325,000 tonnes in June, while Western Europe saw a 4.93% increase to 234,000 tonnes.

In Asia, excluding China, output grew by 2.87% to 394,000 tonnes. South American production increased by 3.31% to 125,000 tonnes.

Russian and Eastern European production rose by nearly 4% to 340,000 tonnes, and production in Australasia edged up by 0.65% to 154,000 tonnes.

Output slightly decreased in the Middle East by 0.59% to 507,000 tonnes and in Africa by 0.76% to 130,000 tonnes.

Adani Nuclear Power Capacity Plan Targets 10GW by 2035

Adani

Adani nuclear power capacity could reach 10GW by 2035 as the Indian conglomerate expands into atomic energy alongside thermal, renewable, hydroelectric and gas-based generation. The plan would make Adani one of the most ambitious private entrants into India’s nuclear power sector.

Adani nuclear power capacity development comes as India seeks to widen private participation in nuclear generation. The country needs significantly more reliable baseload power to support industrialisation, electrification and rising digital infrastructure demand.

Adani nuclear power capacity will be developed through Adani Atomic Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary incorporated by Adani Power in February. The business is authorised to generate, transmit and distribute electricity from nuclear and atomic energy.

The group has not disclosed potential sites, reactor configurations or grid integration plans. However, the 10GW target would represent around one-tenth of India’s planned 100GW nuclear fleet by 2047.

Nuclear Adds Baseload Power to Adani’s Integrated Energy Strategy

Adani plans to invest more than Rs2 trillion over the next five years to expand its overall power generation portfolio to 45GW. The programme covers thermal power, renewables, hydroelectricity, pumped storage and supporting transmission infrastructure.

Nuclear adds a different capability to that portfolio. It can provide large-scale, low-carbon baseload electricity while renewable generation expands.

India currently has around 8.8GW of installed nuclear capacity, with nuclear supplying about 3% of national electricity generation in the 2024-25 financial year. Reaching 100GW by 2047 would therefore require a major acceleration in construction.

Private-sector participation could help provide capital, engineering capacity and project execution. However, nuclear projects require long development periods, strict regulation, specialised supply chains and large upfront investment.

For Adani, nuclear could complement its existing thermal and renewable assets. A diversified generation mix gives the group more flexibility as India’s power demand rises.

The company also remains heavily invested in coal generation. Adani Power operates 18.33GW and has 23.72GW of locked-in capacity, giving it a target of 42.05GW by the 2031-32 financial year.

Data Centres and Grid Growth Strengthen Power Demand Outlook

Adani’s nuclear target also fits rising electricity demand from digital infrastructure. The group’s data centre business aims to reach 3GW of capacity by 2030, supported by growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

Data centres require continuous, high-quality power. This increases the value of generation sources that can provide round-the-clock electricity alongside renewable power and storage.

Adani is also expanding hydroelectric and pumped-storage capacity. Through its partnership with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power, the group plans to jointly develop up to 5GW of hydropower and pumped storage.

The portfolio increasingly resembles a full energy system rather than a collection of individual generation assets. Thermal power provides dispatchability, renewables lower emissions, storage balances variability and nuclear could add low-carbon baseload.

This strategy also carries metals implications. Nuclear, grids, data centres and transmission infrastructure require large volumes of copper, aluminium, specialty steels, zirconium alloys and other engineered materials.

If Adani executes even part of the 10GW nuclear target, India’s nuclear supply chain will need more qualified equipment, materials, engineering and fuel-cycle capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adani’s nuclear plan shows that India’s power strategy is moving toward a broader mix rather than a renewables-only model. The industrial opportunity will extend beyond generation into grids, specialty metals, nuclear-grade materials and long-term power infrastructure.

Mercedes bets on green aluminium from Norway's Hydro for next-gen CLA

Mercedes aluminium body

Mercedes is turning to green aluminium from Norway's Hydro to cut embedded emissions in its new CLA model. The green aluminium from Norway's Hydro is certified at just 3kg of CO₂ per kilogram of metal across mining, refining, smelting and casting. This compares with a global average of 16.7kg, giving Mercedes a meaningful reduction in material-related emissions. The alloy also contains 25pc post-consumer scrap, which further lowers its lifecycle footprint and supports circular-economy targets.

However, the company’s claim that CLA production is “net carbon-neutral” still depends on offsets. Mercedes powers the plant with 100pc renewable electricity, mainly externally sourced hydropower, which materially cuts scope 2 emissions. But scope 1 emissions from on-site processes and logistics, as well as upstream emissions from suppliers, remain. Therefore, the move to green aluminium from Norway's Hydro is a genuine step forward, even if the overall net-zero claim rests partly on controversial offset mechanisms that investors often scrutinise.

Green aluminium supports low-carbon steel and battery initiatives

The CLA’s use of green aluminium from Norway's Hydro forms part of a broader materials decarbonisation strategy. Mercedes says its latest battery cell design cuts emissions by about 30pc per cell through renewable energy in anode and cathode production. The company also relies on “net carbon-neutral” cell manufacturing at suppliers, since it does not produce cells in-house. As a result, the true impact depends on supplier practices and verification of their renewable power usage.

Meanwhile, Mercedes is layering in low-carbon steel to tackle emissions in chassis and body-in-white applications. The CLA incorporates steel from US producer Nucor’s Econiq-RE range, made using 100pc renewable energy. Mercedes also has a deal with Steel Dynamics for more than 50,000 t/yr of CO₂-reduced steel for its Tuscaloosa plant. Together with green aluminium from Norway's Hydro, these supply contracts show how OEMs are weaponising procurement to reduce embodied carbon ahead of incoming carbon border measures.

Demand for certified green aluminium rises faster than headline prices

Demand for certified low-carbon aluminium is rising as automakers prepare for tighter climate regulations and potential carbon border charges. Carmakers want to cut embedded emissions at the material level, especially for high-intensity metals such as aluminium and steel. This is likely to support growing premiums for Hydro’s Reduxa-style green aluminium grades and similar products from competitors. As a result, upstream smelters with renewable power and high scrap usage gain a strategic pricing advantage.

However, headline aluminium prices on global exchanges remain relatively stable despite bullish long-term forecasts. London Metal Exchange cash aluminium has traded in a narrow range over the past year, even as demand for differentiated “green” material accelerates. This suggests that the value is migrating into contract premiums and long-term offtake deals instead of the base price. Over time, producers unable to demonstrate low-carbon credentials may find themselves pushed into a discounted “grey” segment of the market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercedes’ partnership around green aluminium from Norway's Hydro shows how decarbonisation is increasingly driven by procurement, not just tailpipe regulation. For metals producers, the message is clear: access to cheap renewable power and high-quality scrap streams will shape competitiveness more than pure tonnage growth. As carbon accounting tightens, the premium for verifiable low-carbon tonnes is likely to widen, rewarding early movers across the aluminium value chain.

La Nina Conditions Set to Fade as El Nino Risk Adds Climate Uncertainty

the World Meteorological Organisation

La Nina conditions are expected to fade into neutral weather patterns in the coming months, but the possibility of El Nino developing by May-July adds fresh uncertainty for global commodity and industrial supply chains. The World Meteorological Organisation said the current weak La Nina episode is likely to weaken, with neutral conditions becoming the most probable outcome.

The WMO forecasts a 60pc chance of neutral conditions in March-May and a 70pc chance in April-June. It also sees a 60pc chance of neutral conditions in May-July, while assigning a 40pc probability to an El Nino episode during that period.

La Nina conditions typically reduce global temperatures, while El Nino usually has a warming effect. However, climate change is increasingly overpowering the historical temperature effects of both patterns, making weather-related risk harder for industries to manage.

Weather Volatility Matters for Mining and Commodity Flows

Weather patterns are becoming an important supply-chain variable for mining, metals, energy, and agriculture-linked industrial markets. Heavy rainfall, drought, heat stress, cyclones, and power disruptions can affect mine output, transport corridors, hydropower availability, smelting costs, and port operations.

La Nina conditions often influence rainfall patterns across major resource regions. A shift toward neutral conditions may reduce some weather extremes, but it does not remove risk. The WMO cautioned that forecast uncertainty increases over longer timeframes.

An El Nino event would create a different set of risks. It can intensify heat, reduce rainfall in some regions, and disrupt water-dependent industries. For metals producers, this matters because water, electricity, and logistics reliability are central to mine and smelter performance.

Above-Normal Temperatures Keep Industrial Risk Elevated

The WMO also expects a widespread global signal for above-normal land surface temperatures in March-May. This is important because 2025 was still one of the hottest years on record, even though it began and ended with La Nina conditions.

Higher temperatures can affect industrial operations through power demand, grid stress, worker safety, water availability, and cooling requirements. Energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium smelting, copper processing, steelmaking, and battery materials production are especially exposed when weather volatility affects electricity supply or costs.

For commodity markets, the key issue is not only whether La Nina conditions fade or El Nino develops. The larger issue is that climate volatility is becoming a structural operating risk across upstream extraction, refining, and global transportation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Weather risk is now part of industrial risk management, not a background variable. Metals and mining companies must treat climate volatility as a factor in production planning, logistics resilience, and long-term supply security.

India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis reshapes regional supply

Ferro-Silicon

India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis is forcing cutbacks and shutdowns. India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis stems from soaring power and charcoal costs. India ferro-silicon power tariff crisis threatens margins as tariffs stay elevated into 2026.

Cost shock and shutdowns in Meghalaya

Producers face a fixed tariff of Rs5.92/kWh in Meghalaya until March 2026. The state’s FeSi hub has 5,000–6,000 t per month capacity. However, many plants cut output by 20–30 percent. Three to four furnaces reportedly shut in recent weeks. Meanwhile, operators warn permanent closures may follow mounting losses.

Demand slump and competitive pressure

Domestic demand from stainless steel remains weak. As a result, FeSi offtake and pricing stay under pressure. Some manufacturers substitute with 98 percent silicon metal. Therefore, FeSi loses share in certain applications. Producers also battle higher charcoal prices, further eroding viability.

Producers urge policy relief to avert deeper cuts. Government action on power costs could stabilize operations. Otherwise, traders expect more closures in the coming months.

Bhutan strengthens its foothold with cheap hydropower. Consequently, Bhutanese FeSi offers near Rs85,000 per tonne ex-works. New plants and expansions are lifting Bhutan’s regional supply. India’s FeSi sector must adapt or cede long-term share.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s FeSi outlook hinges on power economics, not just demand. Relief on tariffs and input costs could slow attrition. Watch substitution trends and Bhutan’s capacity ramp through 2026.

China’s Sunway Set to Launch Sichuan Anode Material Plant

Conch Venture Sunway

Conch Venture Sunway, a prominent Chinese producer of anode materials, is set to begin production at its newly constructed facility in Leshan city, Sichuan province. This facility marks a significant milestone for the company in the rapidly growing lithium-ion battery supply chain.

The first phase of the plant, designed with a production capacity of 40,000 tons per year, began construction in September 2022 and was completed by June 2023. Trial production commenced in October, and full-scale operations are slated to launch in December. Once fully operational, the plant will contribute to Sichuan's reputation as a major hub for lithium-ion battery manufacturing.

The Leshan facility is part of a larger plan, with the second phase expected to add another 60,000 tons per year of capacity. However, details regarding the timeline and execution of the second phase remain undisclosed.

Conch Venture Sunway is a joint venture between Conch Venture, a provider of energy conservation and environmental protection solutions, and Sunway, a leading special cable manufacturer. This collaboration leverages Sichuan’s abundant hydropower resources, which allow producers to benefit from low electricity prices of 0.30-0.35 yuan/kWh ($0.04-0.05/kWh).

Producing 1 ton of synthetic anode material requires substantial energy, consuming 11,000-15,000 kWh, with over 60% allocated to the graphitisation process. Sichuan’s competitive energy rates provide a distinct advantage for companies like Conch Venture Sunway in scaling their operations sustainably.

As global demand for lithium-ion batteries continues to rise, fueled by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions, Conch Venture Sunway’s new facility positions the company at the forefront of anode material production.

Tajikistan Seeks Western Mining Partners to Unlock Critical Mineral Reserves

Tajikistan

The Central Asian nation aims to attract global investors for copper, lithium, and rare earth exploration.

Emerging Frontier for Critical Minerals

Tajikistan seeks western mining partners to unlock critical mineral reserves, including antimony, copper, and lithium. The country ranks third globally in antimony reserves and is expanding its interest to rare earths, cobalt, and bismuth. While Chinese firms have established a strong presence, Tajikistan now actively courts western junior miners and strategic partners. Vast Resources, a UK-based firm, is among the first European mining companies to sign agreements with the Tajik government. Officials emphasize low production costs, tax incentives, and abundant clean energy from hydropower as key advantages.

Geological and ESG Challenges Remain

However, Tajikistan faces major hurdles in developing its mining sector despite its mineral potential. Thousands of mineral occurrences remain unexplored, and much of the country’s geological mapping is outdated. Terrain obstacles and limited accessibility also complicate operations. Infrastructure upgrades are underway, supported by over $1bn in funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Yet transparency remains an issue, with Tajikistan ranked 164 out of 180 in the 2024 International Transparency Index. The U.S. has expressed interest in assisting, emphasizing the need for a transparent and stable investment environment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tajikistan's call for western mining partnerships comes at a time of intense competition for secure, diversified critical mineral supply chains. If infrastructure and ESG reforms advance, the country could emerge as a strategic node in the global non-ferrous metals landscape.