Alumina Market Faces Supply Challenges: What’s Next for 2025?

Aluminium

As alumina prices soared to record highs in late 2024, global markets are bracing for more supply disruptions in the coming year. Alumina, the key raw material for aluminium production, faced significant supply shortages due to a combination of environmental regulations, production stoppages, and logistical challenges across major supplying countries. While new projects are expected to alleviate the pressure in 2025, the alumina market remains vulnerable to supply shocks that could impact aluminium prices in the near future.

Supply Disruptions Drive Alumina Prices to Record Levels

Alumina prices surged by over 70% in 2024, with prices peaking above $780 per ton in both China and Australia by November. This price spike was driven by multiple disruptions across the globe, including lower exports from Australia, logistical bottlenecks in Brazil, and production suspensions in Guinea.

In Australia, the tightening of environmental regulations and a fire-related disruption in Queensland affected alumina production, leading to force majeure declarations from major suppliers like Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Alcoa also declared force majeure in November due to the closure of the Santarem harbor, which blocked access to one of the country’s main bauxite export terminals.

In Guinea, seasonal rains and infrastructure issues led to a nearly 40% reduction in bauxite shipments. Despite these challenges, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) indicated that the suspension would not immediately impact its operations, although concerns about long-term supply remained.

Demand and Supply Outlook for 2025

The global aluminium production continued to rise in 2024, particularly in China, where new production capacities came online. Despite this, China’s alumina production has failed to keep pace with aluminium output, leading to a sharp rise in alumina imports. By the end of September, China had imported over 123 million tons of alumina, a 33% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

However, relief may be on the horizon. In 2025, China is set to add more than 13 million tons of new alumina capacity, while other key players, including India’s Vedanta Resources and Guinea’s EGA, are planning significant new alumina refining projects that could ease the global supply squeeze by 2026. UBS forecasts a surplus of 960,000 tons of alumina in China next year, a dramatic turnaround from the deficit observed in 2024.

Despite these optimistic forecasts, challenges remain. The tightness in bauxite supply—especially from Guinea, which supplies 72% of China’s alumina imports—could continue to limit alumina production in China. Environmental regulations in China’s key bauxite-producing provinces, coupled with logistical issues in Guinea, mean that alumina markets will likely remain susceptible to disruptions throughout 2025.

Conclusion

While new alumina production capacities are expected to ease supply pressures in the coming years, the market remains highly vulnerable to supply shocks. Stakeholders in the alumina and aluminium industries will need to closely monitor the situation in major producing regions, particularly in Guinea and China, as these could have significant implications for aluminium prices in 2025. With alumina supply still concentrated in a few key regions, the risk of further disruptions remains high, and the industry must prepare for potential volatility.

Hydro 4Q 2025 Earnings Fall as Alumina Weakness Offsets Aluminum Strength

Hydro

Hydro 4Q 2025 earnings fell sharply in the quarter as weaker alumina prices and currency effects hit profitability. The Norwegian producer reported quarterly Ebitda of NKr5.59bn, down 27.5pc from a year earlier. Lower realized alumina prices and a stronger Norwegian krone drove much of the decline. As a result, Hydro 4Q 2025 earnings showed how uneven the aluminum value chain remains.

The contrast inside the portfolio was clear. Hydro’s alumina business weakened significantly, while its aluminum metal segment delivered strong gains. Lower raw material costs and firmer aluminum prices supported primary metal earnings. However, weak downstream demand and poorer trading results offset much of that benefit. Therefore, Hydro 4Q 2025 earnings reflected strong upstream metal pricing but softer performance elsewhere.

Full-year performance looked more resilient than the quarter alone suggests. Hydro’s full-year Ebitda reached NKr28.9bn, up 9.87pc from 2024. That shows the company still benefited from stronger aluminum market conditions across the year. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter exposed growing pressure in alumina and downstream operations.

Hydro Alumina Business and Metal Markets Moved in Opposite Directions

Hydro alumina business was the weakest part of the quarter. Ebitda in bauxite and alumina fell 72pc year on year to NKr1.39bn. Lower alumina prices and a stronger Brazilian real weighed heavily on results. Rising Indonesian refining output and Chinese oversupply also pressured alumina pricing. Consequently, Hydro alumina business became the main drag on quarterly earnings.

The aluminum metal division told a different story. That segment posted Ebitda of NKr3.71bn, up 90.2pc from a year earlier. Lower alumina costs and higher all-in aluminum prices drove the improvement. LME three-month aluminum averaged $2,847/t in the quarter, above the prior-year level. As a result, aluminum metal earnings helped cushion weaker results elsewhere.

Metal markets were much less supportive. The division posted a negative Ebitda of NKr56mn, compared with a positive NKr318mn a year earlier. Lower sourcing and trading performance, negative inventory valuation, and currency effects all hurt results. However, recycling operations provided some partial support.

European Extrusion Demand Remains Soft Despite Restructuring Efforts

European extrusion demand remained weak and margins stayed under pressure. Hydro’s extrusion division reported a negative Ebitda of NKr62mn, down from positive earnings of NKr319mn a year earlier. Lower sales margins and lower volumes drove the decline. Therefore, downstream demand remains a serious concern for Hydro.

Demand trends offered only limited comfort. European extrusion demand was flat year on year, though it rose 3pc from the previous quarter. US demand was also flat year on year, but fell 8pc quarter on quarter. That suggests end markets are still not delivering a strong recovery. Consequently, Hydro continues facing a slow and fragile downstream environment.

The company is responding with restructuring. Hydro said it will close five extrusion plants in Europe this year. It also completed a strategic workforce reduction, with around 850 employees having left or expected to leave by the first half of 2026. As a result, Hydro is trying to protect long-term competitiveness while market conditions stay difficult.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hydro’s quarter shows that strong aluminum prices alone cannot carry the full business when alumina and downstream segments weaken. The company still benefits from primary metal strength, but its earnings mix is becoming more dependent on that support. If downstream demand stays soft, restructuring and cost control will matter as much as market pricing in 2026.

Ma'aden aluminium earnings rise on stronger alumina and FRP sales

Ma'aden aluminium

Ma'aden aluminium earnings improved in the third quarter as higher alumina sales volumes outweighed weaker benchmark prices. The Ma'aden aluminium earnings uplift came mainly from alumina and flat-rolled products, even with softer alumina pricing. As a result, Ma'aden aluminium earnings underline the resilience of Saudi downstream metals against a volatile global market.

Alumina sales volumes drive EBITDA growth

Ma'aden reported third-quarter aluminium segment EBITDA of SR755mn, up 16.7pc year on year on solid revenue growth. Sales rose 12.5pc to SR2.8bn, helped by a sharp increase in third-party alumina sales volumes. Alumina production was broadly steady at 486,000t, just 2,000t lower than a year earlier.

However, alumina sales volumes jumped 141pc to 135,000t, signalling a deliberate shift toward monetising surplus material. Alumina prices averaged $385/t in the quarter, down 14.6pc year on year, which capped margin upside. Even so, higher volumes and integrated smelting helped protect profitability along the value chain.

For the first nine months, alumina output held near 1.43mn t, while alumina sales rose 25pc to 266,000t. Prices averaged $431/t, up 5pc, supporting cumulative EBITDA, which still rose 3pc despite a weaker second quarter.

Flat-rolled products underpin premium pricing strategy

Refined aluminium output was flat at 246,000t in the third quarter, highlighting stable smelter operations. Primary aluminium sales volumes increased 4pc to 156,000t, even as average prices dipped 1.1pc to $2,734/t. Over nine months, aluminium output edged up 1pc to 741,000t, while sales slipped 4pc to 435,000t, reflecting some inventory and mix effects.

Flat-rolled product (FRP) performance continued to strengthen Ma'aden aluminium earnings through premium pricing. FRP output reached 76,000t in the quarter, only slightly above last year, but nine-month production climbed 20pc to 231,000t. FRP sales rose to 75,000t in the third quarter and 226,000t year to date, up 15pc. Average FRP prices increased 5.6pc in the quarter to $3,435/t, and 8pc to $3,677/t over nine months.

Therefore, the growing FRP share supports margin resilience versus pure primary metal exposure. Ma'aden has kept full-year production guidance unchanged, signalling operational confidence across alumina, smelting and downstream rolling. This integrated model positions the company well as regional demand for automotive, packaging and industrial aluminium continues to expand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ma'aden’s third-quarter numbers confirm that value-added products now anchor profitability more than headline aluminium prices. The combination of integrated alumina, primary metal and FRP capacity provides a structural buffer against market volatility. Investors should watch how Ma'aden balances export volumes, domestic demand and future FRP upgrades as GCC industrialisation accelerates.

Hydro’s Q4 2024 Earnings Surge on Alumina Price Rally

Hydro

Record Alumina Prices Drive Bauxite Division Profits as Hydro Navigates Mixed Performance Across Segments

Norwegian aluminium producer Hydro posted a significant year-on-year increase in Q4 2024 earnings, driven primarily by record alumina prices and strong performance in its bauxite and alumina division. Supply disruptions in key producing regions and robust demand in China helped push alumina to new highs, directly benefiting Hydro's upstream operations.

In Q4, Hydro’s EBITDA more than doubled to NOK 7.7 billion ($686 million), compared to a weak fourth quarter in 2023. The bauxite and alumina division led the charge, with EBITDA skyrocketing to NOK 4.97 billion from NOK 481 million a year earlier. This unprecedented growth highlights how alumina price volatility can significantly impact upstream aluminium players.

Aluminium Metal Gains Offset by Costs and Tax

While upstream earnings soared, the aluminium metal division reported modest growth. EBITDA rose by just 0.5% year-on-year to NOK 1.95 billion. Although higher all-in metal prices and lower carbon costs provided support, these gains were offset by elevated alumina prices and a NOK 600 million tax settlement in Brazil.

The metal markets division swung to profitability, delivering NOK 319 million in Q4 EBITDA, compared to a loss of NOK 38 million a year prior. This rebound stemmed from improved trading and sourcing, although performance in recycling remained subdued.

Extrusion Division Hit by Auto Sector Weakness

In contrast, Hydro’s extrusion division faced a 60% drop in Q4 earnings to NOK 371 million. The decline was due to weak electric vehicle production, especially in Germany, and declining recycling margins. Despite current challenges, Hydro expects gradual improvement in construction and industrial demand later in 2025, spurred by easing interest rates and consumer spending recovery.

Hydro’s full-year EBITDA for 2024 reached NOK 26.3 billion, up 18% from 2023, reinforcing the company’s diversified strength amid market headwinds. As alumina markets remain volatile, Hydro’s exposure across the aluminium value chain continues to balance risks and rewards.

Shift in China's Alumina Market Dynamics: Reduced Imports and Increased Exports in 2024

China's Alumina

Navigating the Impact of Closed Arbitrage Opportunities

In 2024, China's alumina imports saw a significant decline, dropping by 22% from the previous year, as per customs data. This reduction was primarily attributed to the closure of import arbitrage opportunities starting in May, when rising global prices, due to tight supply, made imports financially unfeasible. The effect was stark in December, with imports plummeting by 94% year-over-year and 85% from November, directly linked to the continued closure of arbitrage.

China Emerges as a Net Alumina Exporter Amid Global Price Fluctuations

Simultaneously, China experienced a 43% increase in alumina exports in 2024, positioning the nation as a net exporter for the first time in years. This shift was driven by higher alumina prices outside of China during the third quarter, which encouraged producers to capitalize on more lucrative overseas markets.

Domestic Market Trends and Production Increases

Despite high domestic prices peaking in December, they began to decrease mid-month as aluminum producers initiated care and maintenance to cope with negative profit margins caused by high feedstock prices. In Shanxi province, a key production hub, alumina prices slightly fell by 2% month-over-month to 5,700 yuan per ton ($780/t) by the end of December. Nonetheless, the overall domestic output in December surged by 10.1% year-over-year, reaching 7.51 million tons. Throughout 2024, total production rose by 3.9% to 85.5 million tons, reflecting robust domestic production amidst global economic pressures.

Alcoa Maintains 2024 Guidance as Third-Quarter Production and Revenue Climb

Alcoa

Alcoa Corporation, a leading U.S.-based integrated aluminum producer, upheld its 2024 production guidance for alumina and aluminum despite achieving increased quarterly production and revenue in Q3. The company continues to project aluminum production at 2.2-2.3 million metric tonnes (t) and alumina output at 9.8-10 million t, unchanged from prior estimates.

Third-Quarter Highlights

Aluminum production grew 5% year-over-year, reaching 559,000 t in Q3 2024 compared to 532,000 t in the same period last year. Aluminum shipments also rose slightly to 638,000 t from 630,000 t. Meanwhile, bauxite production declined to 9.4 million dry metric tonnes (dmt) from 10.7 million dmt a year ago. Alumina output decreased to 2.435 million t, down from 2.805 million t, with shipments falling to 2.052 million t.

Revenue and Market Dynamics

Alcoa’s Q3 revenue rose nearly 12% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina prices, which averaged $485/t compared to $354/t in Q3 2023. Aluminum prices also increased to $2,877/t, up from $2,647/t a year earlier. Third-party aluminum sales rose approximately 10% to $1.8 billion. Improved alumina pricing and lower raw material costs helped narrow segment losses to $11 million from $15 million in the same period last year.

The company posted $90 million in profits, a significant improvement from the $168 million loss reported in Q3 2023.

Strategic Developments

Alcoa raised its annual shipment forecast by 200,000 t to 12.9-13.1 million t, reflecting increased trading volumes. However, a wider spread between production and shipments emerged due to external sourcing of alumina amid the ongoing curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in Australia.

Alcoa is advancing a strategic partnership with IGNIS, a Spanish renewable energy investment firm. The agreement includes selling 25% of Alcoa's operations in Spain and a potential €175 million ($189 million) investment by Alcoa if required. The deal is contingent on government and employee support.

On 15 October, Alcoa signed a long-term supply agreement with Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) to deliver 1.5 million t of smelter-grade alumina over 10 years beginning in 2026, bolstering its position as a global alumina supplier.

Outlook

With strong alumina prices and strategic partnerships, Alcoa expects its alumina segment performance to improve by $30 million, driven by increased shipments and reduced production costs. As global aluminum demand remains steady, Alcoa’s ability to adapt through cost efficiency and partnerships positions it favorably for future growth.

China's Alumina Capacity Expansions to Slow Down Under New Policy

China Alumina

Government Plan Signals Shift in Alumina Market Strategy

China's alumina capacity growth is set to decelerate following a new industrial development plan released in March 2025. The Aluminium Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2025–2027) requires new alumina projects to include bauxite mining operations and avoid high-pollution zones.

This move aims to control overheated investments, reduce redundant competition, and enhance domestic resource utilization, according to speakers at a recent CNIA conference. Market participants believe this policy shift will suppress further rapid expansions, especially amid growing signs of alumina oversupply.

Oversupply Risks and Price Volatility Emerging in 2025

China became a net alumina exporter in 2024, with exports rising by 43pc, driven by tight overseas supply and rising global prices. Domestic alumina prices surged to a record Yn5,800/t ($793.49/t) in December, but have since plummeted below Yn4,000/t, leading to negative profit margins.

In the first two months of 2025, output rose 13pc year-on-year to 15.13mn t, as new projects in Guangxi and Shandong added 3mn t/yr of capacity. Industry estimates now forecast a 10mn t/yr rise in total capacity for the year, while aluminium output is expected to grow only 1.2pc, creating a projected 1.3mn t surplus.

CNIA expects alumina production to hit 91mn t in 2025, with exports at 1.5mn t and consumption reaching 88.2mn t. This imbalance highlights the risk of prolonged low prices and margin compression in the sector.

China to Boost Domestic Bauxite and Recycling Capabilities

To support its alumina sector, China plans to expand domestic bauxite resources by 3–5pc by 2027. This includes exploration of coal-bed bauxite and development of low-grade, high-sulphur reserves, traditionally seen as challenging due to environmental concerns.

Shanxi province is likely to be a key site for new bauxite mining under coal beds, as noted by CNIA expert Meng Jie. In 2024, domestic bauxite output dropped 12pc to 73.9mn t, while imports rose 13pc to 159mn t, making up 68pc of total supply.

China will also promote aluminium recycling, aiming to produce 15mn t of secondary aluminium by 2027. This includes industry park development and relaxed import rules for aluminium scrap, supporting the transition to a circular economy in aluminium production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s new alumina policy marks a clear pivot toward sustainability, supply security, and rational investment. While the action plan may cause short-term market disruption, it paves the way for a more integrated and resilient aluminium value chain—anchored in controlled expansion, domestic bauxite development, and circular material flows.

Chalco Reports Increased Aluminium and Alumina Output in January-September

Chalco

Chalco, China's state-owned aluminium producer, has reported notable increases in both its primary aluminium and alumina production for the January-September period, compared to the same period last year. The rise in output is reflective of strong domestic demand for these materials, which have supported price growth across the industry.

During the first nine months of 2024, Chalco’s primary aluminium output, including aluminium alloys, rose by 14% year-on-year, reaching 5.62 million tons (mn t). This increase in production aligns with a 13% rise in primary aluminium sales, which also reached 5.6 million tons over the same period. This performance underscores Chalco's strong market position in the aluminium sector, with solid sales and production figures helping to bolster its standing in an increasingly competitive market.

Chalco also saw a slight increase in its metallurgical alumina output, a crucial feedstock used in primary aluminium production. The company produced 12.57 million tons of alumina in January-September, marking a 0.9% rise over the previous year. However, the company reported a decline in alumina sales, which fell by 4.8% to 4.77 million tons during the same period.

In terms of product segmentation, Chalco’s fine alumina production grew by 15% year-on-year, reaching 3.25 million tons, up from 5.01 million tons in 2023. Fine alumina is used in the production of higher-value products, and this increase reflects Chalco's shift towards higher-quality, more profitable outputs.

The increase in both aluminium and alumina production was supported by strong domestic demand, which helped push prices higher during the reporting period. Chalco noted that higher profitability within the aluminium and alumina production sectors encouraged manufacturers to maximize their production run rates, further driving output.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s total aluminium production grew by 4.6% year-on-year to 32.56 million tons in the January-September period, while alumina output rose by 2.4% to 63.13 million tons.

Strong Demand Supports Price Growth in Aluminium and Alumina

The performance of Chalco and other domestic producers is being driven by persistent domestic demand in China, one of the world’s largest consumers of both aluminium and alumina. Rising prices for both materials have contributed to improved profitability across the industry. Despite a decline in alumina sales, Chalco’s overall production and sales growth in aluminium highlights a promising outlook for the company in the remainder of the year.

As Chalco continues to ramp up production, it is expected that the market will remain focused on the ongoing balance between domestic demand, production capabilities, and price fluctuations, particularly as global economic conditions continue to evolve.

Metlen and Rio Tinto Sign Strategic Bauxite and Alumina Supply Deal

Metlen

Long-Term Agreement Strengthens Supply Chains and Expands Alumina Trade

Metlen Targets Alumina Growth with €295.5mn Investment in Greece

Greek aluminium and energy conglomerate Metlen, formerly known as Mytilineos, has signed a long-term supply agreement with Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian mining giant. The deal ensures mutual access to critical raw materials, reinforcing both firms' strategic positions in the aluminium value chain.

Rio Tinto to Deliver Bauxite from Guinea Starting 2027

Under the agreement, Rio Tinto will supply Metlen with 14.9 million tonnes of bauxite over 11 years, sourced from the CBG mine in Guinea. This move secures a steady bauxite flow for Metlen, aligning with its downstream processing plans. Simultaneously, Metlen will provide Rio Tinto with 3.9 million tonnes of alumina across eight years, with a potential three-year extension.

Both supply streams are scheduled to begin in 2027, positioning both companies for long-term operational synergy.

Greek Expansion to Boost Alumina Capacity by 400,000t/yr

Metlen also confirmed a €295.5 million investment to expand its alumina production at Agios Nikolaos, Greece. This will add 400,000 tonnes/year to its current capacity of 865,000 tonnes, solidifying Metlen’s presence in the global alumina market.

The investment package includes upgrades to energy and transport infrastructure and new gallium production facilities. These developments will bolster Metlen's vertical integration and export potential, particularly as global alumina demand rises.

Record Financials Back Strategic Growth Plan

In 2024, Metlen achieved a record EBITDA of €1.08 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Although net profits dipped slightly to €615 million, the metals division surged, posting €297 million in EBITDA, driven by a 46% rise in alumina prices and a 7% increase in aluminium prices.

While the energy segment saw a 1.7% decline in EBITDA to €753 million, the overall performance reinforces Metlen’s financial strength ahead of its expansion and supply commitments with Rio Tinto.

The company stated the deal will deliver dual benefits: securing upstream bauxite supply and maximizing profit through expanded alumina exports under competitive global terms.

China’s IMDTECL Launches $1bn Alumina Plant Project in Guinea

China Alumina

New alumina facility marks China’s deepening investment in bauxite-rich West Africa

IMDTECL Begins Construction of 1.2mn t/yr Alumina Plant

China’s Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy (IMDTECL) began building a $1 billion alumina plant in Tougnifilidy, Guinea, on 26 March 2025. The integrated facility will produce 1.2 million tonnes per year of alumina and include bauxite mining and associated infrastructure.

This development reinforces China’s strategic grip on Guinea’s bauxite reserves, which are vital for the global aluminum supply chain. The new plant aligns with Guinea’s national requirement that major miners invest in in-country refining capacity to enhance local value addition.

Guinea Rises as a Strategic Alumina Hub

Guinea remains China’s largest bauxite supplier, with shipments hitting 110 million tonnes in 2024, up 12% year-on-year. This accounted for nearly 70% of China’s total bauxite imports, underscoring the West African country’s importance in the aluminum value chain.

In response to this dependency, Guinean regulators are enforcing stricter policies, including mandating domestic alumina processing. These measures are designed to capture more downstream value and stimulate industrial development in Guinea.

Outlook: Strong Growth in West African Alumina Capacity

Market analysts expect a significant rise in Guinea’s alumina production over the next five years due to multiple plant investments. As a result, China’s reliance on raw ore imports could be partly replaced by alumina shipments, easing pressure on domestic refiners.

Meanwhile, projects like IMDTECL’s could redefine global bauxite trade flows, encouraging other nations to localize resource processing. The IMDTECL project may also influence global alumina prices and trade logistics, especially within the China–Africa supply corridor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's vertical integration in Guinea reflects a new era of resource diplomacy and industrial policy enforcement. As refining moves closer to the mine, emerging economies like Guinea could gain more influence over global metals markets.

Global aluminium deficit to widen as EV and renewable demand surges

Global aluminium

Global aluminium deficit is set to widen from 2025 as demand outruns constrained supply. Forecasts show global primary aluminium supply rising to 74.3mn t in 2025, 75.8mn t in 2026 and 76.5mn t in 2027, driven mainly by new smelter projects outside China. However, parallel demand growth from electric vehicles and renewable energy will push consumption to 74.5mn t in 2025, 76.1mn t in 2026 and 76.8mn t in 2027, creating annual deficits. These figures translate into a global aluminium deficit of 166,000t in 2025, 281,000t in 2026 and 291,000t in 2027, underscoring a steadily tightening balance.

EV and regional supply dynamics reshape global aluminium deficit

The global aluminium deficit emerges despite incremental regional capacity growth and relatively stable legacy production. Australian primary aluminium output is expected to remain flat at 1.6mn t/yr across 2025-27, highlighting limited upside from a key exporter. Meanwhile, Chinese production is expected to remain below its formal 45mn t/yr cap, reinforcing structural constraints in the world’s largest market. Additional tonnes will therefore come from newer producers, with Indonesia forecast to lift output to 700,000t in 2025 and then double to 1.4mn t by 2027.

India also plays an important role in narrowing, but not eliminating, the global aluminium deficit. Indian primary production is expected to reach 4.2mn t in 2025 and 4.7mn t in 2027, supported by recent smelter investments and captive power integration. However, growth in EV and renewable segments is highly aluminium-intensive, especially for body sheet, castings and extrusions. As a result, structural demand from auto light-weighting, power transmission, solar frames and battery casings will likely sustain the global aluminium deficit even if some projects underperform. Rising primary prices and strong interest in low-carbon metal will deepen the premium gap between conventional and certified low-carbon material.

Recycling, alumina and bauxite respond to shifting aluminium fundamentals

Recycled metal is set to play a larger role in balancing the global aluminium deficit. Global demand for recycled aluminium is expected to increase from 27mn t in 2025 to 29mn t in 2027, reflecting OEM and policy pressure to cut embedded emissions. Total recycled output is forecast to reach 40mn t in 2025 and 44mn t in 2027, driven by higher utilisation of scrap in China, the US and Europe. This shift will partly cushion primary tightness, but scrap quality, collection systems and sorting capacity will limit how far recycling alone can offset the global aluminium deficit.

Midstream markets show a different pattern, with alumina entering a cyclical surplus even as primary metal tightens. Global alumina output is expected to increase to 148mn t in 2025 and 164mn t by 2027, while demand rises more slowly to 145mn t in 2025 and 151mn t in 2027. This surplus suggests downward pressure on alumina prices as global production recovers. Australian alumina output is forecast to rise from under 17.4mn t in 2024–25 to over 18.5mn t in 2026–27, supported by higher production at the Worsley refinery. In turn, global bauxite supply is projected to reach 422mn t in 2025 and 443mn t in 2027, against demand of 373mn t and 414mn t, highlighting a modest buffer at the ore stage even as the global aluminium deficit tightens the finished metal market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The projected global aluminium deficit through 2027 underscores how quickly EV and renewable investment can tighten a previously balanced market. For producers, stable alumina and ample bauxite create a favourable cost backdrop, but power prices and carbon policies will still define margins. For buyers, competition for low-carbon and recycled units will intensify, making long-term contracts, scrap strategy and regional diversification critical to securing supply.

Norsk Hydro Reports Alumina Output Decline, but Strong Earnings in Third Quarter of 2024

Norsk Hydro

Alumina Production Declines, Sales Surge

Norwegian aluminum producer Norsk Hydro has released its third-quarter results for 2024, revealing a drop in alumina production but an increase in alumina sales. Despite producing only 1.46 million metric tonnes of alumina in the third quarter, down from 1.52 million tonnes the previous year, Hydro sold 2.7 million tonnes of alumina, an increase of 508,000 tonnes from the same period in 2023. To make up for the shortfall in production, Hydro sourced an additional 555,000 tonnes of alumina.

Strong Performance in Other Production Segments

While alumina production declined, other production segments remained stable. Primary aluminum production saw only a minor decrease of 1,000 tonnes, totaling 511,000 tonnes. Hydro's aluminum metal segment sold 71% of its expected primary aluminum production for the fourth quarter of 2024, at an average London Metal Exchange (LME) price of $2,445 per tonne, slightly below the current LME settlement of $2,600 per tonne.

In addition, Hydro experienced a decline in extrusion sales volumes, which dropped by 20,000 tonnes to 240,000 tonnes. Despite this, demand for extrusion products is expected to rebound in 2025, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates. Recycling production also saw a decline of 6,000 tonnes, reaching 170,000 tonnes for the quarter.

Significant Increase in Alumina Earnings

Hydro's bauxite and alumina sector reported a remarkable increase in earnings before financial items, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), reaching 3.5 billion Norwegian Krone ($318 million). This impressive performance was primarily driven by the rise in the realized alumina price from $349 per tonne to $494 per tonne. Additionally, lower raw material costs and favorable currency effects contributed to the substantial 25-fold increase in EBITDA compared to the same period in 2023.

Robust Overall Profit for the Quarter

Norsk Hydro reported a strong overall profit of 3.506 billion NKr for the third quarter of 2024, marking a significant increase from the 345 million NKr profit in Q3 2023. This surge in profitability reflects Hydro's ability to capitalize on rising alumina prices and its strategic management across various production sectors.

Alcoa Shifts Focus to Aluminium Production with Alumina Cuts in 2025

Alcoa

US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to cut alumina output and ramp up aluminium production in 2025. In its annual report, released on January 22, Alcoa revealed it had met its production targets for 2024, producing 10 million tons of alumina and 2.2 million tons of aluminium. While aluminium production grew by 4.8% from 2023, alumina output fell by 2.9%. This strategic move highlights Alcoa's ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions and operational challenges.

Alumina Production Cuts Continue into 2025

For 2025, Alcoa expects alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons, marking the second consecutive year of output reductions. The company had previously halted operations at its Kwinana plant in Western Australia, which had a capacity of 2.2 million tons per year. This decision followed a combination of high operating costs, the plant's age, and soaring bauxite prices. As a result, Alcoa plans to continue sourcing alumina externally, a strategy it began in 2024 to fulfill customer orders and maintain supply chain efficiency.

Aluminium Production Growth Driven by Plant Resumptions

On the aluminium front, Alcoa saw significant growth, increasing its output by 4.8% in 2024. This increase was driven in part by the resumption of operations at its Warrick and Alumar joint venture smelters in the US and Brazil, which had been inactive for years. In 2025, Alcoa forecasts aluminium production to rise further to between 2.6 million and 2.8 million tons, as these plants continue to scale up operations. The company’s aluminium output is expected to remain steady through 2024, with quarterly production gradually increasing.

Alcoa Looks Ahead with Positive Aluminium Price Outlook

Alcoa's financial outlook for 2025 is further supported by the positive trend in aluminium prices. The London Metal Exchange's aluminium cash price rose from $2,110 per ton to $2,611 per ton over the past year, reflecting growing demand. Additionally, the removal of the tax rebate on commodities, including aluminium, by China in December 2024 is expected to further elevate prices, benefiting Alcoa's bottom line.

UAE’s EGA Faces Bauxite Shipment Suspension from Guinea Amid Global Aluminium Market Disruptions

EGA

The global aluminium industry is facing renewed uncertainty as Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), a UAE-based company, confirmed the suspension of bauxite shipments from its Guinea Alumina subsidiary. The halt was enacted by Guinean customs officials, who have yet to provide an explanation or a timeline for the resumption of exports. EGA has stated that, for now, the stoppage will not impact operations at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE, a key link in the supply chain for aluminium production.

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) responded swiftly to the news, surging 3.73% to reach $2,653.50 per tonne, marking a significant movement in the day’s trading session. This price increase adds to a year of volatility in the alumina market, driven by repeated supply interruptions. "We are seeking clarity from customs on the reason for this action and are working to resolve this as quickly as possible," said an EGA representative.

Rising Aluminium Prices and Global Supply Chain Concerns

The bauxite shipment suspension from Guinea follows a series of disruptions in alumina production worldwide, which have collectively placed pressure on the aluminium market. In Australia, US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to fully halt alumina production at its Kwinana refinery, which has an annual capacity of 2.2 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China has seen its own limitations on alumina production this year, further tightening global supply.

These restrictions come as the aluminium industry navigates increasing demand for lightweight metals in various sectors, from construction to electronics, adding to price pressures. Market analysts suggest that such supply chain interruptions could lead to sustained high prices for aluminium if production does not stabilize soon.

Press Metal Reports 40% Profit Surge in 2024 Amid Strong Aluminium Demand and Vertical Integration Push

Press Metal Holdings

Higher Value-Added Sales and New Indonesian Alumina JV Offset Raw Material Pressures

Press Metal Delivers Record Earnings in 2024 Despite Raw Material Challenges

Malaysia’s largest aluminium producer, Press Metal Holdings, posted a 39.82% increase in pre-tax profit in 2024, reaching 2.3 billion ringgit ($519.3 million). This growth came on the back of rising aluminium prices and strong demand for value-added products, although higher alumina costs dampened some of the gains.

Annual revenue rose by 8% year-on-year to 14.91 billion ringgit, with fourth-quarter profits up 24% to 542.5 million ringgit, as reported by the company. Q4 revenue inched up 0.73% to 3.56 billion ringgit, signaling steady market demand despite input cost volatility.

Strategic JV in Indonesia Strengthens Upstream Position

To manage raw material price swings, Press Metal launched a strategic joint venture in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, in September 2024. The project involves the development of an integrated alumina refinery and supporting infrastructure, aimed at enhancing upstream control and reducing exposure to global bauxite and alumina supply risks.

CEO Koon Poh Keong noted that although alumina prices have begun to ease, policy uncertainties around bauxite sourcing continue to pose risks. The company’s vertical integration strategy is designed to boost operational resilience and protect margins against market fluctuations.

Aluminium Demand Remains Strong Across Traditional and Green Sectors

Looking ahead, Press Metal remains optimistic, citing a balanced aluminium market supported by robust investment across sectors. Demand continues to grow in clean energy, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure, and battery storage, in addition to traditional industrial uses.

By reinforcing its supply chain integration, Press Metal is positioning itself to sustain profitability while adapting to raw material cost dynamics and evolving end-market trends.

Rusal's 2024 Earnings Surge Despite Sanctions and Market Headwinds

Rusal

Aluminium giant increases EBITDA by 90% amid sanctions, falling costs, and domestic market pivot

Russia’s top aluminium producer Rusal reported a dramatic earnings increase in 2024, despite facing international sanctions and weak global demand. The company’s EBITDA soared to $1.49 billion, a 90% jump year-on-year, thanks to lower production costs and a strategic pivot to domestic markets.

Rusal’s revenues dipped slightly by 1.1% to $12.08 billion, but net profits surged to $803 million, up from $282 million in 2023. The producer boosted aluminium output to 3.99 million tonnes, up 3.7%, and alumina production by 25% to 6.43 million tonnes.

Notably, Rusal acquired a 30% stake in Hebei Wenfeng New Materials in late 2023, securing access to 1.4 million tonnes per year of alumina in China’s Hebei province. The company also lifted bauxite output by 18.8% to 15.89 million tonnes.

Sanctions Drive Market Realignment

In April 2024, the US and UK banned exchange-traded Russian aluminium, copper, and nickel, barring imports and services tied to these metals. The London Metal Exchange (LME) subsequently banned Russian-origin metals from its warehouses, intensifying pressure on Rusal.

Despite these barriers, Rusal successfully reorganized its export channels and expanded domestic sales, minimizing disruption. The company also lowered its overall cost of sales by 11.3%, aided by falling raw material and energy costs.

Aluminium prices rose 3.3% on average in 2024, while alumina prices surged nearly 47% due to global supply constraints.

Outlook Remains Cautious

Rusal noted that the global aluminium industry remained under pressure from volatile input prices, sluggish demand, and high interest rates. Yet, by shifting to local markets and improving operational efficiency, the company weathered macroeconomic turbulence and reinforced its production base.

Century Aluminum Sees Q2 Shipment Decline, Anticipates Q3 Recovery Boost

Century Aluminum, a leading producer of primary aluminum, reported a decrease in shipments for the second quarter, though it remains optimistic about a rebound in the third quarter. The company expects that higher aluminum prices and increased demand for domestic billet products will drive recovery, despite a drop in overall production.

In the second quarter, Century Aluminum's shipments fell to 167,908 metric tonnes (t), down from 173,649t during the same period last year. The decline was felt across all operations, including its key U.S. facilities in Sebree, Kentucky, and Mt. Holly, South Carolina. Combined, these facilities shipped 93,805t in the quarter, a decrease from 97,224t in the previous year. The company's Icelandic smelter at Grundartangi also saw a drop in primary aluminum shipments, falling to 74,103t from 76,425t a year ago.

Despite the downturn, Century Aluminum's Sebree facility operated at full capacity, producing at 100% of its 220,000t annual capacity. Mt. Holly operated at 75% of its 230,000t annual capacity, while the Grundartangi plant maintained 100% of its 320,000t annual capacity.

During the quarter, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on billet imports from 14 countries, which Century Aluminum believes will spur domestic demand. The company’s Sebree and Mt. Holly plants have a combined billet and slab capacity of 295,000t annually, and the decision is expected to provide significant support to these operations.

In addition to market dynamics, Century Aluminum noted that alumina prices are currently at a two-year high, driven by supply disruptions in Australia and increased regulation in China. These factors have pushed the cost of alumina, a key input for aluminum production, to account for a higher percentage of production costs than usual.

In the third quarter, Century’s Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica faced disruptions due to Hurricane Beryl, though operations have since stabilized at 80% of the refinery’s 1.2 million lbs/year capacity. However, damage to the main export port in Clarendon Parish forced the company to reroute shipments and declare force majeure on alumina deliveries.

Financially, Century Aluminum reported a 2.5% drop in second-quarter revenue to $561 million, with a loss of $6.7 million, a sharp contrast to the $6.6 million profit recorded in the same period last year.

Hydro Reports Strong 3Q Earnings Boosted by Aluminium Price Gains

Hydro

Norwegian aluminium producer Hydro recorded a sharp increase in third-quarter earnings, driven by robust performance in its upstream operations and aluminium metal division. Higher aluminium and alumina prices offset weak demand in downstream markets, contributing to strong results for the company.

Financial Highlights

• Ebitda: Reached NKr 7.37 billion ($672 million), up 89% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter.
• Revenues: Increased by 12% year-on-year to NKr 50.09 billion.
• Year-to-Date Results: January-September Ebitda rose slightly to NKr 18.62 billion, while revenues climbed 1.17% to NKr 148.58 billion.

Upstream Strength Drives Growth

Hydro’s upstream operations outperformed significantly:

• Bauxite and Alumina Division: Ebitda surged to NKr 3.41 billion from NKr 93 million in the same quarter last year. This improvement was fueled by tightening global alumina supplies caused by disruptions in Australia and bauxite constraints in China.
• Aluminium Metal Division: Ebitda more than doubled to NKr 3.23 billion from NKr 1.38 billion a year earlier, supported by higher aluminium prices, lower carbon costs, favorable CO2 compensation, and positive currency effects.

Downstream Challenges

Hydro’s downstream businesses faced pressure due to weak market conditions:

• Extrusions Division: Ebitda dropped 33% to NKr 879 million as demand from the automotive extrusion sector remained sluggish, particularly in Europe. Low sales of electric vehicles in Germany compounded the downturn.
• Metal Markets Division: Ebitda fell 51% year-on-year to NKr 277 million, with squeezed recycling margins and reduced remelt production from limited aluminium scrap availability.

Hydro noted that building, construction, and industrial demand remained moderate but could see a recovery in 2025 if interest rates decline.

Outlook

Hydro's strong performance in upstream operations highlights its resilience amidst market volatility. However, downstream challenges reflect broader demand issues, particularly in Europe’s automotive and construction sectors. Continued alumina price strength and strategic cost management could help Hydro maintain its competitive edge in the aluminium market.

EGA posts loss on Guinea write-down as feedstock strategy shifts

Guinea Alumina

EGA posts loss on Guinea write-down after the expropriation of its GAC subsidiary. The EGA posts loss on Guinea write-down despite higher realised aluminium prices and strong value-added sales. However, the EGA posts loss on Guinea write-down also masks operational tweaks to secure alumina and bauxite.

What drove the headline loss

EGA reported Dh3.82bn in EBITDA on Dh15.08bn revenue, up 7.86pc. Before adjustments, net profit reached Dh1.63bn. However, the GAC expropriation pushed the company to a Dh890mn net loss. Guinea suspended GAC shipments in October and revoked the mining licence in May. Authorities reassigned the licence in August to state-owned Nimba Mining. As a result, EGA faced higher bauxite procurement costs and refinery inefficiencies. The company also relied more on third-party alumina.

Operations, output, and pricing signals

EGA produced no bauxite in the first half, versus 7.19mn t a year earlier. Alumina output at Al Taweelah fell 6.56pc to 1.14mn t. Meanwhile, EGA finished a debottlenecking project adding up to 50,000 t/yr of alumina capacity. Primary aluminium output was 1.34mn t, broadly flat year on year. Cast metal production rose 2.92pc to 1.41mn t, with sales up 4.58pc to 1.37mn t. Value-added products increased to 84pc of sales from 82pc. LME aluminium averaged $2,538/t in the period, up from $2,303/t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Guinea shock exposed EGA’s feedstock concentration risk but also accelerated diversification. If alternative bauxite and alumina offtakes bed in while Al Taweelah’s debottlenecking delivers, margin drag should ease. Execution now hinges on supply optionality, residue management, and stable energy logistics.

Metlen's Strategic Expansion: A New Era in Alumina and Gallium Production

Metlen

Greek conglomerate Metlen, previously known as Mytilineos, is set to revolutionize its production capabilities with a significant investment that marks its entry as one of the EU's first gallium producers while simultaneously enhancing its alumina output.

Enhancing Alumina Production and Introducing Gallium

Metlen has announced a massive €295.5 million investment in Agios Nikolaos, central Greece. This funding will drive the development of new bauxite mines, modernization of existing alumina production facilities, and the establishment of new gallium production units. The project is a strategic move to increase Metlen's alumina production from 865,000 tonnes to 1.27 million tonnes annually and initiate gallium production at a rate of 50 tonnes per year.

Boosting European Supply Chains and Reducing Dependency

This investment comes at a crucial time as European gallium prices have surged due to recent restrictions on Chinese exports to the US. Metlen's initiative aims to position Greece as a leading supplier of gallium outside China, enhancing the EU's strategic autonomy in critical raw materials. The new facilities will not only diversify the supply sources but also reduce Europe's dependency on external suppliers, addressing the vulnerability exposed by China's export controls.

Timeline and Future Outlook

Metlen plans to kick off bauxite production next year, with the expanded alumina and new gallium facilities expected to be operational by 2027. Full-scale production is projected to commence by 2028, significantly boosting Greece’s role in the global metals market.