China’s JCHX Expands Lonshi Copper Mine in DRC with $751.3M Investment

JCHX Mining

Strategic Expansion Aims to Boost Copper Concentrate Output

Chinese mining company JCHX Mining Management plans to expand copper concentrate production at its Lonshi Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This development includes the exploration of the east mining area, with a new copper ore processing capacity of 3.5 million tonnes per year (t/yr) and an estimated $751.3 million investment. The construction timeline spans 4.5 years, though the official start date remains undisclosed. Once fully operational, the east mining area is expected to reach full capacity within four years of commissioning.

Increasing Copper Production Capacity

JCHX launched the west mining area of the Lonshi mine in Q4 2023, achieving an annual copper concentrate production capacity of 40,000 t/yr. With the east mining expansion, the entire Lonshi mine is projected to produce 100,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. In the first half of 2024, JCHX reported a fourfold increase in copper concentrate production compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 13,213 tonnes.

JCHX’s Growing Presence in Africa and Beyond

In addition to Lonshi, JCHX operates the Dikulushi copper mine in the DRC and the Lubambe copper mine in Zambia. The company is also awaiting mining approval for its San Matias mine in Colombia. This expansion aligns with China’s broader strategy of securing copper supply for its growing smelting capacities.

China’s Expanding Global Copper Footprint

China produced 12.451 million tonnes of refined copper between January and November 2024, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Chinese mining firms, including Zijin Mining, have accelerated overseas copper acquisitions, with Zijin currently pursuing the La Arena copper-gold mine in Peru to bolster its global copper and gold output.

Market analysts anticipate a tight copper concentrate supply in 2025, as smelting capacity expansion is projected to outpace new mining projects. This dynamic reinforces China’s aggressive push into international copper mining investments.

Lundin Mining Copper Production Holds Steady as Chilean Assets Drive Record Year

Lundin Mining

Lundin Mining copper production held broadly steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, helping the Canadian miner deliver record full-year copper output. The performance reinforces the strategic importance of Chilean assets in Lundin’s portfolio as global copper producers compete to secure growth in a tightening long-term supply market.

The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, placing Lundin Mining copper production in the upper half of its revised guidance range of 319,000-337,000t. The result was supported mainly by strong performance at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile, where higher throughput, better recoveries, and increased cathode production strengthened the group’s operating base.

Lundin Mining copper production also remained stable into the end of the year. Fourth-quarter output reached 87,032t, compared with 84,999t in the third quarter. That stability matters because copper buyers are watching not only new project pipelines, but also the ability of established producers to deliver reliable tonnes from existing assets.

Chilean Operations Strengthen Lundin’s Copper Platform

Candelaria remained Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset in 2025, delivering 145,471t of copper. The operation continues to anchor the company’s near-term supply profile and gives Lundin a strong position in one of the world’s most important copper mining jurisdictions.

Caserones also played a central role in the record year, contributing 132,881t of copper. The asset benefited from higher throughput, improved recoveries, and increased cathode output. It also achieved its highest quarterly production since Lundin acquired the operation in mid-2023, showing that the asset is becoming a more productive part of the group.

Chapada in Brazil added 43,974t of copper during the year, giving Lundin a broader South American production base beyond Chile. Gold production reached 141,859oz in 2025, while nickel production totalled 9,907t. Both were within or above guidance, supporting the company’s wider metals portfolio even as copper remains the core strategic focus.

Stable 2026 Guidance Keeps Focus on Efficiency and Growth

Lundin expects copper production to remain broadly stable at 310,000-335,000t in 2026. This suggests the company is entering the year with a focus on cost optimisation, operating discipline, and asset efficiency rather than a sharp near-term volume expansion.

Nickel output fell to 2,174t in the fourth quarter from 2,724t in the third quarter, but the result remained aligned with operational expectations. Rehabilitation work at Eagle East in the United States helped restore mining and processing rates earlier in the year, supporting a more stable operating base.

Longer term, Lundin’s growth strategy depends on asset optimisation and new project development. Further improvements at Caserones could support incremental copper gains, while the Vicuna project with BHP represents a larger strategic growth pathway. If advanced successfully, these initiatives could strengthen Lundin’s position as a more important copper producer in the global energy transition supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s 2025 performance shows why operational reliability is becoming as valuable as headline growth in copper mining. In a market increasingly defined by permitting delays and project scarcity, stable output from Chilean and Brazilian assets can carry real strategic weight.

Royal Gold Ecuador Copper Investment of $200 Million Targets Warintza Project

Royal Gold Ecuador copper

Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment reached $200 million as the US metals investment firm's subsidiary RGLD Gold partnered with Canadian miner Solaris Resources for the Warintza copper-gold-molybdenum project. The substantial Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment secures net smelter royalty agreements and gold purchase arrangements for a project containing 1.1 billion tonnes of measured and indicated resources at 0.48% copper equivalent grade, positioning Royal Gold strategically within Ecuador's emerging copper mining sector.

Structured Payment Schedule Aligns with Project Milestones

Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment follows a phased approach with $200 million distributed across three installments tied to development milestones. RGLD Gold will pay $100 million upon closing, $50 million after environmental impact assessment approval and pre-feasibility study publication, and the final $50 million one year after initial closing. This milestone-based structure reduces investment risk while ensuring adequate project funding for critical development phases.

Meanwhile, the investment secures comprehensive royalty agreements covering all metals produced from the Warintza project including copper, gold, and molybdenum. The gold purchase agreement provides Royal Gold additional revenue streams beyond traditional royalty structures. These arrangements create diversified income sources while maintaining exposure to multiple commodity price cycles across the project's operational lifespan.

Royal Gold Ecuador Copper Project

Warintza Project Resources Support Long-Term Production Potential

However, the Warintza project's substantial resource base of 1.1 billion tonnes at 0.48% copper equivalent grade demonstrates significant scale for potential mining operations. The multi-metal deposit includes copper, gold, and molybdenum mineralization that enhances project economics through commodity diversification. Ecuador's copper mining sector attracts increasing international investment as global copper demand accelerates through energy transition requirements.

Therefore, Royal Gold's investment follows China's Zijin Mining $130 million investment for a 15% stake in Solaris completed in January 2024. The sequential major investments validate Warintza's commercial potential while providing Solaris adequate funding for project advancement. International investor interest demonstrates confidence in Ecuador's mining jurisdiction and the project's technical merits.

Strategic Positioning in Growing South American Copper Market

Furthermore, the Warintza investment positions Royal Gold advantageously within South America's expanding copper production base as global demand accelerates. Ecuador represents an emerging copper jurisdiction with substantial unexplored potential and improving regulatory frameworks for mining development. The country's strategic location provides efficient access to Asian and North American copper markets.

As a result, Royal Gold's streaming and royalty model creates exposure to Warintza's production potential without direct operational responsibilities or capital expenditure requirements beyond the initial investment. This approach enables participation in copper market growth while maintaining diversified portfolio exposure across multiple projects and jurisdictions. The investment strategy aligns with Royal Gold's established business model of financing mining development through royalty arrangements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Royal Gold's $200 million Warintza investment exemplifies how precious metals streaming companies expand into base metals opportunities, leveraging their financing capabilities to secure royalty positions in high-quality copper projects amid accelerating global demand. The milestone-based payment structure demonstrates sophisticated risk management while Ecuador's emergence as a copper jurisdiction attracts major international investors seeking exposure to South American copper resources essential for global energy transition requirements.

Ecuador to Resume Large-Scale Copper Mining Concessions by 2026

Ecuador Mining

Government Prepares to Reopen Mining Concession System

Ecuador will restart medium- and large-scale copper mining concessions by March 2026, according to energy minister Ines Manzano. The country has not granted new concessions since January 2018, marking a major policy shift under President Daniel Noboa’s administration.

The mining cadaster, a public register managed by regulatory agency Arcom, reopened on 16 June for small non-metallic concessions such as limestone and cement. Authorities will extend the process to small-scale metallic concessions in September 2025, before moving to large-scale copper and other metals.

Copper Sector Central to Ecuador’s Growth Plan

Ecuador is building a new digital system to consolidate data on mining concessions, including dormant licenses since 2021. By March 2026, these areas will be reassigned to the ministry of energy, creating opportunities for new investors.

The government aims to double concession areas from 1.6mn to 3.2mn hectares, equal to 6pc of Ecuador’s territory. This expansion underscores the country’s plan to boost copper mining output, with recent data showing 188,920t of copper concentrate exports from January-April 2025, a 9pc increase year-on-year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador’s decision to relaunch copper mining concessions highlights its intent to attract foreign investment and strengthen exports. However, regulatory consistency and political stability will be critical for investor confidence. The success of this reopening will depend on how effectively Ecuador balances environmental, community, and economic priorities.

Lundin 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Candelaria Slows Underground Mining

Lundin Mining

Lundin 2026 copper guidance has moved lower after weaker expectations at Candelaria in Chile. The company cut its 2026 copper target to 310,000-335,000t. That compares with earlier guidance of 320,000-348,000t. As a result, Lundin 2026 copper guidance now reflects a more cautious view of underground mining rates.

The revision matters because Candelaria remains Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset. The company expects lower underground mining rates in the first half of 2026. That change directly reduced expected output from the site. Therefore, Candelaria copper production is now the main reason for the group downgrade.

However, Lundin’s overall operating picture is not weak across the board. The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, beating its initial guidance. It also raised copper expectations at Caserones and Chapada for 2026. Meanwhile, Lundin has sharpened its portfolio around copper after selling its Eagle nickel-copper asset.

Candelaria Copper Production Weighs on the 2026 Outlook

Candelaria copper production is carrying more operational risk than Lundin’s other core assets. The company lowered 2026 guidance for the mine to 135,000-145,000t. Its previous estimate stood at 140,000-150,000t. That reduction may look modest, but it matters because of the asset’s size inside the portfolio.

The mine also underperformed in 2025 compared with the previous year. Copper production at Candelaria fell by 10pc to 145,471t. That decline suggests the new guidance cut did not emerge in isolation. Instead, it reflects an operating trend investors should watch closely in 2026.

For copper markets, this type of downgrade remains important. Global supply growth still depends heavily on stable performance from established mines. When a large Chilean asset slows, even slightly, confidence in near-term supply weakens. Therefore, Lundin 2026 copper guidance reinforces how sensitive the market remains to mine-specific disruption.

Caserones Copper Output and Chapada Recovery Support Lundin Copper Strategy

Caserones copper output is now providing the strongest counterweight inside Lundin’s portfolio. The company lifted 2026 guidance for the Chilean operation by 13pc to 130,000-140,000t. It also said production will be modestly weighted toward the first half. That reflects a more favourable grade profile in the coming year.

Caserones already showed stronger momentum in 2025. Copper production there rose 7pc year on year to 132,881t. That improvement helped Lundin raise its 2025 copper guidance during the third quarter. As a result, Caserones copper output has become a more important stabiliser for group performance.

Chapada is also moving in the right direction. Lundin raised 2026 guidance for the Brazilian mine by 12pc to 45,000-50,000t. The company expects better recovery as stockpile material falls from about 25pc to 10pc of mill feed. Consequently, Chapada may contribute more meaningful quality improvement than headline tonnage alone suggests.

Lundin’s broader copper strategy is becoming clearer. The company has raised 2027 guidance across its three copper projects by an average of 4pc. It also sold Eagle, its only nickel-producing asset, in order to focus on larger copper operations. Therefore, Lundin is positioning itself as a more concentrated copper producer, even as Lundin 2026 copper guidance moves lower.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This guidance cut is not a company-wide setback. It is a reminder that copper portfolios still depend on a few large mines performing well. Lundin’s strategy remains constructive, but Candelaria now deserves far more attention than the headline guidance change suggests.

54% of the World's Copper Mines Face 'Drought Shock'

Anglo American Copper Mining

More than half of the world’s copper mines are exposed to 'drought risk'. Other major metal raw materials such as iron ore, lithium, and cobalt are also facing potential supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.

Metalnomist stated in a report published on the 24th, “Climate anomalies caused by global warming will adversely affect the supply and demand of international raw materials.” The center cited data from the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), predicting that by 2050, 54% of the world's copper mines and 74% of lithium and cobalt mines will experience reduced production due to drought. Water is essential for crushing mineral ores, separating impurities, and cleaning equipment. McKinsey highlighted that “copper, gold, iron ore, and zinc are particularly vulnerable to drought, as 30-50% of these mines are located in areas with insufficient water resources.”

Chile, which produced over 30% of the world's copper in 2020, is already suffering from severe drought. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco produced only 1,325,000 tons of copper last year, the lowest in 25 years, due to water shortages and other impacts.

15 Years of Water Shortage in the World’s Largest Copper Reserve: "If Mining Halts, Prices Could Quadruple"

Metalnomist warned on the 24th, “Mining items heavily dependent on production from specific countries are at risk of global supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.”

According to Metalnomist, 47% of the world's copper reserves are concentrated in three countries : Chile, Peru, and the Congo. 74% of iron ore is concentrated in China, Australia, and Brazil, while 80.8% of bauxite is concentrated in Guinea, China, and Brazil. Copper demand has recently surged due to the AI boom, raising concerns that any supply disruption could significantly impact the industry. Global infrastructure asset manager Macquarie Group predicts that the annual copper demand could increase by 2 million tons by 2030 due to the surge in AI data centers. Copper is crucial for the construction of both data centers and power grids.

Northern Antofagasta, Chile's largest copper and lithium deposit, is a prime example of a region unable to increase production due to water shortages. Reuters recently reported that local mining company Antofagasta PLC has been struggling to secure water supply as reservoirs have dried up due to a 15-year-long drought. In the first quarter of this year, Antofagasta PLC’s copper production decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Limited water resources are also causing conflicts with local communities. Antofagasta PLC and Australian mining company BHP were sued by Chile’s National Defense Commission (CDE) in 2022 for environmental pollution. The CDE claimed that mining companies extracted water volumes exceeding regulations, causing severe damage to the local ecosystem and indigenous communities.

Seawater desalination plants are being considered as a solution to these issues. However, the high investment costs and long construction periods limit their ability to solve water problems immediately.

Due to structural constraints on copper supply, it is predicted that copper prices could skyrocket in the coming years. Goldman Sachs projected that the average copper price next year would be $15,000 per ton. Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, analyzed that the global copper supply shortage could drive prices up to $40,000 per ton by 2028. Copper traded at a record high of $10,857 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 21st of last month, before falling to $9,563 on the 21st of this month.

The increasing demand for electricity for cooling due to heatwaves is also expected to raise the demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Metalnomist noted, “Europe is in a situation where it is inevitable to expand thermal power generation to meet the increasing electricity demand in summer,” and added, “In Asian countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, the demand for natural gas for power generation has increased.”

Oman Copper Concentrate Plant Secures $270 Million Financing for 115,000 t/yr Capacity

Oman Copper Mining

Oman's state-owned Minerals Development Oman (MDO) has successfully secured $270 million in financing for its ambitious copper concentrate plant project. The financing agreements, signed with regional and local banks, will fund the construction of Oman's largest integrated copper concentrate plant through MDO subsidiary Mazoon Mining.

Strategic Location and Production Capacity Drive Regional Copper Supply

The copper concentrate plant will be strategically positioned in the Wilayat of Yanqul in Al Dhahirah Governorate, near Oman's border with the United Arab Emirates. This location provides excellent access to regional markets and transportation networks. The facility will process approximately 2.5 million tonnes of ore annually, producing 115,000 tonnes of copper concentrate with 21.5% copper content.

Meanwhile, the project's ore reserves total approximately 22.9 million tonnes of copper ore, which will be extracted from five open-pit mining operations. This substantial reserve base ensures long-term production sustainability for the copper concentrate plant operations.

Local Partnerships Strengthen Oman's Mining Infrastructure

MDO has strategically partnered with local contractors for construction and service agreements, supporting domestic economic development. These partnerships demonstrate Oman's commitment to building local capacity in the mining sector. As a result, the project will create significant employment opportunities and knowledge transfer within the country's mining industry.

The copper concentrate plant represents a major milestone in Oman's diversification strategy away from oil dependence. Therefore, this investment strengthens the country's position in the global copper supply chain while developing critical mineral processing capabilities.

However, the project's success will depend on global copper market conditions and operational efficiency. The facility's 115,000 tonnes annual capacity positions it as a significant regional copper concentrate producer, contributing to Middle East mining development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This $270 million investment signals Oman's serious commitment to becoming a major player in the regional copper market, particularly as global demand for copper continues rising due to renewable energy and electric vehicle transitions. The strategic location near the UAE border positions the facility to serve both domestic and export markets effectively.

Chile Copper Mining Power Demand to Surge by 2034

Chile Copper

Rising Energy Needs Driven by Processing Shifts

Chile’s copper mining sector will face a sharp rise in power demand over the next decade. According to Cochilco, the state copper commission, the industry will require 32.5TWh of electricity in 2034, up 21% from 26.9TWh in 2024. In contrast, copper production will only expand by 5.6% to reach 5.7mn tonnes in the same period. The mismatch highlights the growing energy intensity of mining operations as ore grades decline.

A higher proportion of copper concentrate production and the increased use of desalinated seawater will drive demand. Cochilco estimates copper concentration will consume 18.7TWh in 2034, or 58% of the sector’s total power. Meanwhile, desalination and pumping water to arid northern mines will account for 5.4TWh, representing 17% of consumption.

Transition to Renewables Amid Rising Costs

Chile’s copper industry has already shifted much of its energy base toward renewables. By 2024, renewables represented 74% of the sector’s electricity use, with contracts steadily renegotiated away from fossil fuels. Cochilco forecasts this share will rise to 78% by 2026. Despite this progress, the overall growth in electricity demand underscores potential cost pressures and supply security challenges for producers.

Copper mining already accounts for one-third of Chile’s total power consumption, and the anticipated rise may stress the country’s grid capacity. Therefore, balancing sustainable energy supply with rising industrial needs will be central to maintaining Chile’s global copper dominance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper sector is entering an era where energy demand grows faster than metal output. The transition to cleaner power sources is vital, but rising electricity costs and desalination needs will weigh on margins. Global buyers of copper should expect long-term pricing influenced not only by supply-demand balances but also by the escalating energy footprint of mining operations.

Policy change in Argentina may boost Copper mining by revising glacier protections

Argentina Copper Mining

Policy change in Argentina may boost Copper mining as the government reviews glacier protection rules. Javier Milei says unclear glacier boundaries block investment and resource development. The review targets the Glaciers Law and the perimeter criteria set by IANIGLA. Meanwhile, miners seek legal certainty near the Andes where deposits meet protected zones.

Glacier boundary authority could shift to provinces

The proposal would let provinces define glacier perimeters instead of federal technical mapping. Supporters say clearer zones could unlock projects while protecting core ice. However, critics warn looser definitions could expand mining into sensitive watersheds. Meltwater from glacier systems supports rivers and agriculture across the country.

Copper projects and incentives drive investor interest

Large copper projects in San Juan Province could benefit if permitted areas expand. The list includes BHP and Lundin Mining’s Vicuña Project, plus Glencore’s El Pachón.

The RIGI program offers tax breaks and 40-year legal stability for large projects. Therefore, policy clarity plus RIGI could narrow the gap with Chile’s export scale. Rio Tinto cites stability guarantees as a key reason it entered the country, said Jakob Stausholm. Policy change in Argentina may boost Copper mining if congress rewrites the boundary framework. However, lawmakers must weigh investment gains against water-security and social-license risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s copper upside is real, but the reform must survive court and community scrutiny. Meanwhile, investors will price permitting risk until provinces publish transparent glacier maps. Therefore, the best outcome couples faster approvals with verified safeguards for meltwater.

Chengtun DRC Copper-Cobalt Project Stake Expands China’s Overseas Resource Push

Chengtun Mining

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project investment will give the Chinese mining company an indirect 30% interest in a designated mining asset in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal strengthens China’s overseas copper resource strategy as domestic smelting demand continues to rise.

Chengtun Mining’s wholly owned subsidiaries Hongsheng International Resources and Preeminence Holdings signed the agreement with Abu Dhabi-based Novel Mining and Services and its subsidiary Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment. Under the deal, Preeminence will acquire 50% of Nkoyi for $300mn.

Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project exposure is strategically important because the DRC remains one of the world’s key copper and cobalt supply regions. The project’s technical assessment indicates an average copper grade of 1.66% and an associated cobalt grade of 0.67%.

DRC Asset Adds Copper and Cobalt Feedstock Optionality

The acquisition gives Chengtun access to a copper-cobalt asset at a time when Chinese firms are increasing control over upstream mineral resources. This reflects a wider push to secure feedstock for China’s expanding smelting, refining and battery materials sectors.

The companies plan to negotiate binding agreements covering mineral processing and product sales after the initial transaction documents are completed. These future agreements will determine how project output moves into downstream supply chains.

Chengtun expects mine and processing construction to take around 18 months, followed by a 24-month ramp-up period to full capacity. The company has not disclosed expected annual copper output, leaving the project’s full market impact unclear.

China’s Smelting Demand Drives Overseas Copper Ownership

China copper resource ownership is becoming more important as domestic refined copper output continues to grow. China’s refined copper production rose by 9% on the year in January-February, increasing pressure on companies to secure stable concentrate and mine supply.

The DRC has become a central region for Chinese copper and cobalt investment. Its high-grade copper resources and cobalt by-product value make it strategically attractive for companies exposed to both electrification and battery material demand.

The Chengtun DRC copper-cobalt project deal shows that Chinese companies are still willing to deploy capital into African mining assets despite infrastructure, political and execution risks. For China, the priority remains long-term feedstock security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chengtun’s DRC investment shows that China’s copper strategy is moving further upstream. As smelting capacity expands, control over mine supply will become just as important as processing scale.

China's Copper Discoveries Surge on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: 20 Million Tonnes Added Since 2021

China Copper mining

Major Mining Projects Expand as China Bolsters Domestic Copper Reserves

China has significantly expanded its copper resources, discovering over 20 million tonnes (mn t) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau between 2021 and 2024. This discovery doubles the total amount found in the preceding five years (2016-2020), marking a substantial increase in China's domestic copper reserves.

Key Mining Projects and Resource Potential

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region rich in mineral deposits, hosts several major copper mines, including Yulong, Duolong, Julong-Jiama, and Xiongcun-Zhunuo. According to a China Geological Survey report released on January 7th, these mines have a projected resource potential of 150 mn t.

Zijin Mining's Expansion

Zijin Mining, a prominent Chinese diversified metals mining company, commenced operations at the Yulong copper mine, China's second-largest single copper deposit, in November 2023. The company also began commercial production at its Julong copper mine in Tibet in December 2021. Zijin plans to launch the second phase of the Julong mine in the first quarter of 2026, increasing its copper production from 154,000 t in 2023 to 300,000-350,000 t/yr. A third phase is also planned, aiming to expand output to 600,000 t/yr, although the construction timeline is yet to be announced.

Furthermore, Zijin is set to launch the 76,000 t/yr Zhunuo copper mine in Tibet in June 2026. The company also holds a 45% stake in the Xiongcun mine, with the remaining 55% owned by Jinchuan Group.

Other Mining Developments

China Gold International Resources, a Canada-based mining firm, anticipates copper output at its Jiama copper mine in Tibet to rise to 63,000-67,000 t in 2025, up from 43,200-44,500 t in the previous year, following the resumption of operations in 2024. The company confirmed that the January 7th earthquake in Tibet did not impact operations at the Jiama mine.

Additionally, copper resources at the Duobaoshan mine in Heilongjiang province were revised upwards by 3.65 mn t following an exploration in June 2024.

Ecuador Increases Power Tariffs for Copper Mines Amid Energy Crisis

Ecuacorriente S.A

In a move to address Ecuador's ongoing energy crisis, the country’s electricity regulatory agency, Arconel, has raised power tariffs for large-scale industries, including the copper mining sector. This change, which took effect on October 30, has significant implications for major mines in the country, notably Mirador, operated by China's Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, and Fruta del Norte, operated by Canadian company Lundin. The revised tariffs will impact electricity consumption during peak hours, further exacerbating the financial pressure on mining operations already grappling with soaring costs.

Key Changes to Power Tariffs

The new electricity tariffs target industries that consume the most power, with particular emphasis on mining operations. The most notable increases are:

• Peak Hours (6-10 pm): Increased from 8.10¢/kWh to 9.86¢/kWh.
• Daytime (8 am-6 pm): Raised from 6.8¢/kWh to 8.5¢/kWh.
• Off-Peak (10 pm-8 am): Increased from 5.4¢/kWh to 7.5¢/kWh.

These price hikes will affect two major mines in Ecuador: the Mirador copper mine, which is one of the country’s largest, and the Fruta del Norte gold mine. The tariff increases are a direct response to the national energy shortage caused by a harsh drought, which has significantly reduced the output from Ecuador’s primary hydroelectric plants.

Impact of Ecuador's Energy Crisis on Mining

Ecuador is currently facing a severe energy crisis, exacerbated by a lack of rainfall, which has hindered the operation of hydroelectric plants. As a result, the country has had to rely heavily on thermoelectric power generation, leading to a 77% increase in thermoelectric fuel consumption in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to Petroecuador, the state-owned oil and energy company.

Despite the increase in energy costs, the Ecuadorian mining chamber, which represents companies like Ecsa-Ecuacorriente and Lundin, has acknowledged that the tariff hike is necessary due to the energy crisis. The increased electricity tariffs are expected to affect the operational costs of these mines, making them less competitive in the global market.

Ecuador's Mining Exports and the Role of Copper

Ecuador's mining sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy. In the first half of 2024, Ecuador exported $688.8 million in copper concentrate, accounting for 42% of the country's total income from metal exports, which amounted to $1.6 billion. Copper export revenues saw a 12% increase from the previous year, highlighting the growing importance of copper as a key driver of the national economy.

The rise in power tariffs, however, may put the profitability of copper mining operations under strain, particularly for Mirador, one of Ecuador’s largest copper producers. While the mining chamber has voiced support for the tariff increase, it remains to be seen how these changes will affect long-term investment and growth in Ecuador's mining sector.

Chinese Firms Intensify Investments in Cu-Co Mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo

In a strategic maneuver to secure a steady supply of crucial resources, Chinese enterprises are significantly amplifying their investments in the copper-cobalt reserves of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This initiative addresses China's limited cobalt resources and the enduringly strong copper market.

Leading the charge are prominent entities such as diversified metals producer CMOC, China Railways Resources, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Norin Mining, Excellent Mining, and Huayou Cobalt. According to data compiled by Metalnomist, the DRC produced approximately 167,000 metric tons of cobalt feedstock in 2023, with Chinese mining companies contributing around 59% of this total output. Presently, Chinese investments account for over 62% of the DRC’s total cobalt reserves, a remarkable increase from roughly 25% in 2016. This proportion is anticipated to expand further following Norin Mining's acquisition of Dubai-based Chemaf Resources (CRL).

China’s dependency on imported cobalt, which constitutes nearly 99% of its primary feedstock, has propelled these extensive investments. The DRC remains the foremost supplier of cobalt feedstock to China, accounting for 84% of China's total imports in 2023, trailed by Indonesia (10%), Papua New Guinea (1.6%), and New Caledonia (1.5%).

This domestic resource shortfall has driven Chinese mining firms to intensify their investments in the DRC’s copper and cobalt assets over recent years. CMOC, a global titan in mining cobalt, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and niobium with operations spanning China, the DRC, Australia, and Brazil, acquired a 56% stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine (TFM) from US-based Freeport-McMoRan in 2016, later increasing its stake to 80% in 2017. Additionally, CMOC finalized its acquisition of the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine (KFM) in December 2020.

With copper prices maintaining an upward trajectory since early this year, achieving new heights on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and London Metals Exchange (LME) in mid-May, mining firms have been further incentivized to augment their investments in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines.

Norin Mining's acquisition of CRL, which controls two copper-cobalt mines in the DRC, underscores this trend. Norin Mining Kingco, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Norin Mining, has entered into a share purchase agreement with CRL’s parent company Chemaf to acquire all of Chemaf's shares in CRL. The financial details of the transaction remain undisclosed, yet CRL anticipates completing the deal in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nevertheless, the state mining company Gecamines has expressed opposition to the sale of Chemaf Resources, potentially delaying the acquisition process. A source familiar with the matter noted, "The acquisition is expected to be delayed for a while because of Gecamines' opposition, but it will probably be resolved later without significantly impacting the acquisition."

Chemaf SA is progressing with the expansion of the Etoile mine (Etoile phase 2) to process mixed and sulphide ore, alongside developing a new Mutoshi mine. Both projects, in advanced stages of development, have the potential to collectively produce over 75,000 metric tons of copper and 20,000 metric tons of cobalt hydroxide annually. These new ventures are expected to commence production in 2025, post-acquisition.

Copper Supply Chain Fragility Is Underpriced Despite Price Rally

Ivanhoe

Copper supply chain risk is still being underpriced even after London Metal Exchange prices rallied above $13,000/t, according to Ivanhoe Mines chairman Robert Friedland. He warned that higher prices alone will not quickly unlock new mine investment or solve the operational bottlenecks now shaping copper supply.

The copper supply chain is facing a more complex problem than headline market balances suggest. Friedland pointed to sulphur, sulphuric acid, diesel and other critical inputs as increasingly important constraints for mining operations, especially in Africa.

The copper supply chain is particularly exposed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a large share of production depends on acid leaching. If sulphuric acid availability tightens further, Friedland said about half of the DRC’s low-grade leached copper could be at risk unless higher copper prices offset sharply higher acid costs.

This warning comes as the Middle East conflict affects copper markets indirectly. The immediate threat is not concentrate supply, but sulphur-linked cost inflation that can raise operating costs for solvent extraction and leaching operations.

Sulphuric Acid and Diesel Risks Expose Mining Cost Vulnerability

Sulphuric acid has become a central issue for copper supply because much of the DRC’s production relies on acid leaching. A prolonged disruption in sulphur flows could affect roughly 3mn t/yr of DRC copper output, making the country one of the most exposed parts of the global copper market.

The DRC’s vulnerability is different from that of traditional concentrate producers. Concentrate supply depends on mining, milling, logistics and smelter demand. Leached copper also depends on steady sulphur or sulphuric acid access, which creates another layer of supply-chain risk.

Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula complex is unusually positioned because it produces sulphuric acid as a by-product rather than relying only on external supply. The operation produced more than 100,000t of sulphuric acid in the first quarter of 2026, with annual output expected to reach 600,000-700,000 t/yr once the new smelter is fully ramped up.

That acid production gives Ivanhoe a strategic advantage. It can reduce exposure to imported acid costs while supporting copper output in a market where other DRC producers may face tighter reagent availability.

Diesel is another operational risk. Remote mines depend on diesel for haulage, power generation and logistics, especially where grid access is weak or transport routes are long.

Friedland said highly exposed mining firms should consider securing up to a year of diesel supply. He also argued that the DRC may be less vulnerable than some expect because refined products can arrive through India, Nigeria and southern Africa.

Still, the full operational impact may not yet be visible. Supply-chain shocks often appear first through higher costs, longer lead times and working-capital pressure before they become production losses.

This is why the copper market may be misreading risk. Visible inventories and annual balances can suggest moderate surplus, while the physical supply chain becomes more fragile beneath the surface.

A copper price above $13,000/t helps margins, but it does not immediately create acid, diesel, spare parts, qualified labour or new mine capacity. Mine investment still depends on permitting, capital cost, political risk and long development timelines.

AI, Data Centres and Critical Metals Raise Copper’s Strategic Value

Friedland linked copper’s long-term importance directly to electrification, cooling systems, data centres and artificial intelligence. These sectors are turning copper from a conventional industrial metal into a strategic infrastructure material.

AI data centres need large amounts of power infrastructure. That means more copper for grids, substations, transformers, cooling systems, cabling, backup power and electrical distribution.

The growth of AI also reinforces demand for metals beyond copper. Friedland highlighted gallium, scandium, dysprosium, rhenium and tantalum as thinly traded materials with low liquidity but high industrial dependence.

This is an important market signal. The next phase of industrial competition will not depend only on bulk metals. It will also depend on access to small-volume strategic materials that support semiconductors, aerospace, defence, magnets and high-performance alloys.

Copper remains the anchor metal because it connects electrification, grid expansion, industrial automation and data infrastructure. Friedland described copper as the “king of metals” because no large-scale energy transition can move without it.

However, copper’s strategic value also exposes the market to policy pressure. The US is beginning to understand mining’s national security role more clearly, especially as domestic supply concentration and import dependence become more visible.

Market participants expect moderate global copper surpluses this year, helped by last year’s supply windfall. But US physical balances are expected to remain tight, with the CME-LME arbitrage reopening to encourage flows into the country.

That regional tightness matters. Copper may look balanced globally, while specific markets face procurement pressure because of tariffs, logistics, exchange spreads, domestic manufacturing needs or strategic stockpiling.

The broader lesson is that copper pricing must account for supply-chain resilience, not only mine output. A mine that lacks acid, fuel or logistics capacity cannot deliver metal reliably, even if ore is available.

For investors, this strengthens the value of hard assets with low obsolescence. Mines, smelters, acid plants, power infrastructure and logistics corridors are becoming more valuable as supply chains become less predictable.

For manufacturers, copper procurement is becoming a strategic function. Buyers linked to grids, data centres, defence, cooling systems and energy infrastructure will need more secure supply agreements, not only exposure to exchange prices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Friedland’s warning cuts through the headline copper rally: the market is pricing metal, but not enough supply-chain fragility. Copper’s next constraint may come less from ore availability and more from acid, diesel, logistics and the minor metals needed to build the electrified economy.

Taseko Florence Copper Project Starts Cathode Ramp-Up in Arizona

Taseko

Taseko Florence copper project has started producing copper cathode in Arizona, giving Canadian producer Taseko Mines its first commercial metal from the US in-situ copper development. The project’s solvent extraction and electrowinning plant started operations in mid-February and produced 1.5mn lb, or about 680t, of copper cathode in the first quarter.

The Taseko Florence copper project is important because it uses in-situ copper recovery rather than conventional open-pit mining. The process leaches copper underground and recovers it through solution flows before producing cathode through solvent extraction and electrowinning.

The Taseko Florence copper project offers a different supply model for the US copper market. It can reduce upfront capital intensity compared with traditional mining, but it depends on careful control of underground leaching, solution movement, grades and environmental performance.

Taseko previously targeted 40mn-50mn lb of copper output from Florence in 2026. The company expects production to rise to 80mn lb in 2027 as the project moves through ramp-up.

Florence Adds US Cathode Capacity With Lower Mining Intensity

Florence’s first cathode production marks a key operational step for Taseko. The project is now moving from construction and commissioning into the early stage of commercial production.

The in-situ recovery model gives Florence strategic relevance. It avoids large-scale excavation and instead relies on controlled leaching below ground, which can reduce surface disturbance and capital needs.

However, the method also requires disciplined technical execution. Operators must manage solution chemistry, wellfield performance, recovery rates and environmental controls to ensure the process remains stable.

Florence’s output will come as refined copper demand becomes increasingly tied to electrification, grid investment, data centres, electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing. US cathode supply is strategically important because refined copper availability affects wire, cable, power equipment and industrial users.

The project’s cost exposure also looks partly protected in the near term. Taseko said Florence will not face the sharp recent rise in sulphuric acid prices because its acid supply is locked under a fixed-price contract for this year.

That protection matters. Sulphuric acid has become a more sensitive cost input for copper leaching operations because Middle East disruption and tighter sulphur flows have lifted market concerns. A fixed-price contract gives Florence more cost visibility during its early ramp-up.

Gibraltar Output Jumps as Diesel Costs Add Pressure

Taseko’s established Gibraltar mine in British Columbia also delivered a stronger first quarter. Copper output rose to 30mn lb, or about 13,600t, up 50% from a year earlier.

The increase was supported by steadier grades and better recoveries. This suggests Gibraltar benefited from improved operating performance rather than only stronger throughput.

Molybdenum output also rose sharply. Gibraltar produced 717,000 lb, or about 325t, of molybdenum in the first quarter, up 113% from a year earlier.

Molybdenum by-product output can improve mine economics because it adds revenue beyond copper. It also links Gibraltar to special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-strength alloy demand.

Sales lagged production slightly because of shipping timing. This means some of the production benefit may flow through later, depending on shipment schedules and realized prices.

Cost pressure remains a risk. Taseko said higher diesel prices could add 10-15¢/lb to Gibraltar costs this year, equivalent to about $220-330/t.

Diesel exposure is important for open-pit mines because haulage, mobile equipment and site logistics rely heavily on fuel. If energy prices remain elevated, Gibraltar’s operating costs could rise even as production performance improves.

Taseko’s first-quarter update therefore shows two different copper stories. Florence is entering ramp-up as a new US cathode asset with fixed acid pricing, while Gibraltar is producing more copper and molybdenum but faces higher fuel-cost risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s update shows how copper supply growth is increasingly tied to project type and cost exposure. Florence offers a lower-mining-intensity US cathode route, while Gibraltar highlights the continuing importance of grade, recovery and diesel costs in conventional copper mining.

Vale Copper Investment Strengthens Brazil’s Carajas Copper Growth Strategy

VALE Copper

Vale copper investment in Brazil is set to accelerate as the mining group commits $3.5bn to develop its copper assets in the Carajas region from 2026 to 2030. The plan reinforces northern Brazil’s role as the company’s core copper growth platform and strengthens Brazil’s position in critical minerals supply.

The investment schedule shows a clear ramp-up over five years. Vale plans to invest $300mn in 2026, $400mn in 2027, $800mn in 2028, $900mn in 2029, and $1.1bn in 2030. This rising capital profile suggests the company is preparing for larger development work later in the decade.

Vale copper investment will focus on the Carajas mineral province, which includes the flagship Salobo mine, the smaller Sossego operation, and the Bacaba project. Bacaba is undergoing environmental licensing and could become an important future copper mine within Vale’s Brazilian portfolio.

Carajas Remains the Core of Vale’s Copper Portfolio

Carajas remains Vale’s most important copper-producing region. The province produced 293,100t of copper in 2025, representing 77pc of Vale’s global copper production. That concentration makes Carajas central to the company’s plan to expand copper output over the next decade.

Salobo remains the anchor asset in this strategy. As Vale’s flagship copper mine in Brazil, it gives the company scale, infrastructure, and a strong operating base in a world-class mineral province. Sossego adds additional production, while Bacaba could support the next phase of growth once permitting and development advance.

The investment also fits the wider global copper cycle. Demand from power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, data centres, and industrial electrification continues to support long-term copper fundamentals. As a result, large miners are prioritising assets that can deliver reliable tonnes from established jurisdictions and known geological districts.

Brazil’s Critical Minerals Investment Pipeline Gains Momentum

Vale copper investment also aligns with Brazil’s broader critical minerals agenda. The Brazilian mining institute has estimated that copper will attract the largest share of critical minerals investment in the period, with projected investment of $8.6bn. Vale’s Carajas plan therefore represents a major part of the country’s copper development pipeline.

The investment is strategically significant because copper supply growth remains difficult globally. New mines face longer permitting timelines, rising capital costs, environmental scrutiny, and infrastructure constraints. Brownfield expansions and established mining districts such as Carajas can therefore become more attractive than high-risk greenfield projects.

Vale plans to nearly double its copper production by 2035, supported by an 80,000 t/yr expansion expected to come online in 2029. If delivered on schedule, the expansion would strengthen Vale’s role in the global copper market and give Brazil a larger position in energy transition supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s Carajas investment shows that copper growth is increasingly concentrated around proven mining districts with existing infrastructure. Brazil’s opportunity is to convert geological strength into reliable supply while managing permitting, environmental standards, and long-term capital discipline.

Barminco to Exit Khoemacau Copper Mine as MMG Plans Major Expansion

Perenti Mining

Australian mining contractor Barminco will exit operations at the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana on 30 June 2025. The withdrawal follows a strategic decision by parent company Perenti based on financial performance shortfalls. Despite playing a critical role since the mine’s 2019 startup, Barminco did not meet internal performance targets to justify its continued involvement in the project.

Barminco’s exit marks a turning point for the Khoemacau project, now fully controlled by Chinese mining company MMG, which acquired the asset in March 2024. Under the exit terms, Barminco will sell all of its mining equipment on site to MMG, signaling a full operational handover. This development aligns with MMG’s broader ambitions to scale copper production in Botswana, a region gaining importance for global copper supply diversification.

MMG Sets Aggressive Growth Targets for Copper Output

Khoemacau’s output reached 30,961 tonnes in 2024, contributing $34 million EBITDA to MMG during its first quarter of ownership. MMG now plans to raise output to 43,000–53,000 tonnes in 2025. More notably, the company has announced an expansion project scheduled for 2026, targeting an annual copper output of 130,000 tonnes by 2028.

This aggressive production roadmap underlines MMG’s strategy to secure long-term copper supply amid global energy transition demands. Botswana’s political stability and proximity to southern African transport routes offer favorable conditions for scaling copper exports. With Barminco's departure, MMG gains full operational control and flexibility to execute its long-term plans.

Strategic Implications for African Copper Projects

The Barminco Khoemacau copper mine exit reflects broader trends in mining services consolidation and risk-based contracting strategies. While Barminco exits due to profitability issues, MMG's rapid operational expansion underscores the increasing value of tier-two copper jurisdictions like Botswana. As copper remains central to renewable energy infrastructure, the industry's focus on Africa will likely intensify.

Other Chinese mining firms may follow MMG's lead in acquiring and scaling African copper assets, particularly as supply concerns grow across traditional producers. The Khoemacau expansion could also attract infrastructure investment and regional supply chain development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Barminco’s exit signals a shift in risk appetite among mining contractors, while MMG’s expansion bets on rising long-term copper demand. As Botswana positions itself as a rising copper player, operational control and investment from majors like MMG will shape the region’s strategic metal output.

Argentina Glacier-Protection Reform Opens New Path for Copper Mining

Argentina glacier

Argentina glacier-protection reform has cleared the lower house, creating a major legal shift for the country’s copper industry. The reform allows provinces to decide which glaciers are functionally important to water resources and which areas may be opened to mining.

The approval followed senate backing on 27 February and passed the lower house late on 8 April by 137 votes to 111. President Javier Milei strongly supported the bill, making official promulgation likely.

Argentina glacier-protection reform could unlock copper resources located along the Andes, where many advanced projects overlap with glaciated areas. Supporters argue the change will reduce legal uncertainty and allow provinces to regulate their own natural resources.

Copper Projects Gain New Resource Expansion Potential

Argentina’s copper industry has remained underdeveloped despite a large resource base. The country holds 116mn t of copper resources, but exported only $4bn of the metal last year, far below Chile’s $50bn in copper sales.

The reform could materially change that outlook. Argentina’s 20 most advanced copper projects represent a combined $21.9bn in investment and may now be able to expand resource bases inside previously restricted glacier perimeters.

The mining secretary has forecast that Argentina could produce more than 1.5mn t/yr of copper by 2035, equal to 6.1% of global output. That target now looks more plausible if legal access improves and the government strengthens its large-investment incentive regime.

Argentina glacier-protection reform therefore comes at a critical moment for copper markets. Global demand from grids, electrification, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure needs large new projects, and Argentina is one of the few jurisdictions with major undeveloped copper potential.

Water Security Backlash Raises Political Risk

The reform has triggered strong opposition from environmental groups, lawmakers and parts of the public. Critics argue that easing glacier protections could threaten Argentina’s water security, especially because glacier meltwater supports rivers and agricultural systems.

Greenpeace activists protested outside the lower house in Buenos Aires and warned that the reform could open the way to damaging much of Argentina’s glacial environment. Opponents say drinking water reserves should not be exposed to mining risk.

Supporters of the reform insist that provinces will not permit mining on glaciers that are vital to water resources. However, implementation will depend on how provinces define “functional” and “non-functional” glaciers in practice.

This creates a new layer of project risk. Copper developers may gain legal opportunity, but they will still need political acceptance, environmental credibility and clear provincial rules to move projects into construction.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina glacier-protection reform could become one of the most important copper policy changes in Latin America. The opportunity is large, but the social licence risk is equally serious if water security concerns are not managed with transparency and science.

Ecuador Copper Concentrate Exports Rise as Mirador Recovers From Power Crisis

Ecuador Copper mining

Ecuador copper concentrate exports rose strongly in 2025 as mining output recovered from the country’s severe 2024 energy crisis. The rebound shows how power reliability has become a direct supply-chain issue for copper producers, especially in hydro-dependent mining jurisdictions.

Ecuador exported about 670,740t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 28pc from 523,660t in 2024. Export revenue increased even faster, rising 48pc to about $1.73bn as average export prices climbed 16pc to $2,572/t. The recovery helped Ecuador copper concentrate exports regain momentum after blackouts severely disrupted mine operations a year earlier.

The country shipped its highest monthly volume in November, when copper concentrate exports reached almost 80,630t. That was far above the same month in 2024, when power shortages had sharply reduced industrial activity. However, the 2025 increase partly reflects the unusually weak comparison base created by Ecuador’s previous electricity crisis.

Mirador Remains Central to Ecuador’s Copper Export Growth

Mirador remains the dominant driver of Ecuador copper concentrate exports because it produces about 90pc of the country’s exported concentrate. The mine, operated by Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, was heavily affected in 2024 when the government disconnected large industrial users from the national grid to protect residential power supply.

The disruption exposed a structural risk in Ecuador’s mining model. The country faced 88 days of scheduled blackouts between September and December 2024 after a severe dry season reduced output from major hydroelectric plants. Large mines were forced to rely on limited thermoelectric capacity, which was not enough to fully cover operating requirements.

China remained by far the main destination for Ecuador’s copper concentrate in 2025, receiving around 96.5pc of exports. Peru received 3.5pc, while South Korea accounted for only 0.1pc. This concentration highlights Ecuador’s role as a China-facing copper concentrate supplier, but it also shows limited customer diversification.

Energy Security Becomes the Key Condition for Expansion

Ecuador’s 2026 copper export outlook will depend heavily on negotiations with Ecsa over development of the Mirador Norte deposit. The new pit could double Ecsa’s current copper production by 2028, making it one of the most important near-term growth levers for Ecuador’s mining sector.

The government is seeking additional power security before allowing expansion to proceed. Ecsa is being required to install 90MW of additional thermoelectric generation so Mirador Norte can operate without relying on the national grid during another energy crisis. The company currently has 40MW installed to meet its power needs.

This requirement reflects a broader shift in copper project development. Governments and investors are no longer looking only at ore bodies, grades, and processing capacity. They are also testing whether mines can withstand power stress, water risk, and infrastructure shocks. For Ecuador, solving that energy constraint will be essential if the country wants to become a more reliable copper supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador’s copper rebound is less about new supply and more about restored operating continuity. The Mirador Norte decision will show whether the country can convert geological potential into dependable copper growth under tougher energy-security conditions.

KoBold Mingomba Copper Project Advances as Zambia Targets Major Supply Growth

KoBold Metals

KoBold Mingomba copper project has broken ground in Zambia, moving one of Africa’s largest planned copper mines closer to development. The project is expected to cost more than $2.3bn and produce more than 300,000 t/yr of copper once fully ramped up.

KoBold Mingomba copper project is strategically important because Zambia wants to lift national copper production to about 3mn t/yr by the early 2030s. A project of this scale could become one of the country’s most important new supply sources.

KoBold Mingomba copper project also highlights the growing role of AI-led exploration in critical minerals. KoBold has used proprietary artificial intelligence and machine-learning tools to define a high-grade copper resource deep underground.

The company acquired Mingomba in December 2022. It is now beginning early construction work before completing all engineering studies, with a final cost estimate expected by early next year.

Zambia Copper Investment Gains Momentum

Mingomba could become one of Zambia’s largest copper investments. At more than 300,000 t/yr of planned output, it would rank with some of the largest single copper assets globally.

The project supports Zambia’s wider copper growth strategy. The country is trying to attract large-scale mining investment after years of operational, tax and policy uncertainty.

Other producers are also expanding in Zambia. Barrick and First Quantum are pursuing projects that could help rebuild national output growth.

This matters because copper demand is rising from grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and AI data centres. But new mine supply remains difficult to deliver.

Permitting delays, declining grades and higher capital costs continue to slow global copper development. This gives high-grade, large-scale African projects greater strategic value.

Zambia has a natural advantage because it already has mining infrastructure, workforce experience and established copper export channels. However, execution still depends on policy stability, power supply, transport and downstream processing capacity.

AI Exploration Adds New Dimension to Copper Supply

KoBold’s approach makes Mingomba more than a conventional copper project. The company has built its strategy around using AI and machine learning to analyse geological data and accelerate discovery.

Technology-led exploration is becoming more important as the mining industry searches for deeper, harder-to-find deposits. Many easy copper discoveries have already been developed.

Mingomba’s deep underground resource shows why new exploration methods matter. Future copper supply will increasingly depend on better data, faster targeting and more efficient drilling.

KoBold is backed by major technology and energy-transition investors, including Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman. That investor base reflects copper’s growing role in electrification and strategic materials policy.

The company is still assessing smelting and refining options for Mingomba’s output. This will be important because mine production alone does not guarantee secure copper supply.

Processing, logistics and offtake structures will determine how Mingomba’s copper enters global markets. Zambia’s ability to capture more value domestically may also shape the project’s long-term impact.

KoBold is also expanding its African critical minerals strategy. It has outlined plans for lithium exploration in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 2027 and is reviewing lithium and nickel opportunities in Namibia. It has also begun early-stage copper exploration in Botswana.

The broader signal is clear. Africa is becoming central to the next phase of copper and critical minerals supply, while technology-led exploration is changing how new deposits are found and financed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mingomba is important because it combines scale, grade and timing in a copper market short of credible new supply. If KoBold can convert AI-led discovery into mine execution, Zambia could gain one of the most strategically important copper assets of the next decade.