Metlen Aluminium Production Fell in 2025 as Power Costs Hit Metals Profits

Metlen

Metlen aluminium production declined in 2025 as higher European electricity costs squeezed margins across the Greek group’s metals business. The company produced 232,000t of aluminium during the year, down 2% from 2024.

Primary aluminium output fell by 4% to 176,000t, outweighing a 2% increase in recycled aluminium production to 57,000t. Alumina output also slipped by 1% to 855,000t.

Metlen aluminium production weakness shows how European smelters remain exposed to energy costs even when aluminium prices are firmer. Higher power prices reduced operating profits and weakened the earnings contribution from the metals segment.

Aluminium Revenue Rose but EBITDA Fell Sharply

Metlen’s metals revenue increased in 2025, but profitability fell because margins weakened. Aluminium revenue rose by 4% to €646mn, while EBITDA from aluminium dropped by 40% to €127mn.

Alumina showed a similar pattern. Revenue from alumina production increased by 4% to €206mn, but product-linked EBITDA fell by 9% to €79mn.

The result highlights the margin pressure facing European aluminium producers. Stronger aluminium prices, supported by trade tensions and US import tariffs, were not enough to offset higher electricity costs across the region.

Metlen’s metals unit contributed 13% of group revenue. However, weaker metals earnings weighed on the company’s broader industrial performance.

Gallium Project Adds Strategic Value Beyond Aluminium

Metlen’s group EBITDA fell by 30% to €753mn in 2025, despite a 25% increase in revenue to €7.1bn. The decline reflected project execution-related losses, mainly tied to the Protos strategic energy and resource project in the UK.

Revenue growth was supported by stronger performance in renewables, infrastructure, and concessions. This helped offset some weakness from metals, but did not prevent the group-wide earnings decline.

Metlen is also moving into critical materials. The company plans to produce up to 50 t/yr of gallium by 2028 after reaching full capacity, supported by a €90mn investment from the European Investment Bank.

This gallium project could give Metlen a more strategic role in Europe’s critical minerals supply chain. Gallium is important for semiconductors, power electronics, optics, defense systems, and advanced communications technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Metlen’s results show that Europe’s aluminium industry still faces a structural energy-cost problem. The gallium project gives the company a higher-value strategic materials angle, but its aluminium margins will remain tied to power competitiveness.

Global Average Temperature Rise Reinforces Urgency of Industrial Decarbonisation

WMO(the World Meteorological Organisation)

Global average temperature in 2025 reached 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels, reinforcing the urgency of industrial decarbonisation and faster deployment of low-carbon energy systems. The World Meteorological Organisation said 2025 was either the second- or third-hottest year in the 176-year observational record.

The finding keeps the world close to the 1.5°C threshold pursued under the Paris climate agreement. The WMO’s estimate includes a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C, meaning 2025 may have temporarily exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.

Global average temperature data also show a clear long-term trend. The past 11 years were the 11 warmest on record, while 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three hottest years across all nine datasets reviewed by the WMO.

Greenhouse Gas Levels Keep Pressure on Energy and Industrial Policy

Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing pressure on governments and heavy industry to accelerate emissions reduction. CO2 reached 423.9 parts per million in 2024, its highest level in at least two million years.

The annual rise in CO2 concentration in 2024 was the largest since modern measurements began in 1957. The WMO linked the increase to continued fossil fuel emissions and weaker absorption by land and ocean carbon sinks.

Methane and nitrous oxide also reached record levels in 2024, standing at 1,942 parts per billion and 338 parts per billion, respectively. These gases add further pressure on agriculture, energy, chemicals, mining, and industrial sectors to reduce emissions across supply chains.

Climate Targets Depend on Metals, Grids, and Clean Manufacturing

Global average temperature trends have direct implications for metals and mining. Faster decarbonisation will require larger volumes of copper, aluminium, nickel, lithium, rare earths, silicon, electrical steel, and other materials used in renewable power, grids, storage, electric vehicles, and efficient industrial systems.

The transition also increases pressure on producers to cut the carbon intensity of mining, smelting, refining, and manufacturing. Low-carbon aluminium, recycled metals, renewable-powered refining, green hydrogen, and electrified process heat will become more important as customers and regulators tighten emissions standards.

At the same time, climate stress raises operational risk for the materials sector. Extreme weather can disrupt mines, ports, power supply, shipping routes, and water availability, making resilience a core part of future industrial competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The climate data confirm that decarbonisation is no longer a distant policy theme. It is becoming a materials, infrastructure, and supply chain challenge that will define the next investment cycle in energy and industry.

CBA Aluminium Sale Clears Brazil Antitrust Review as Chalco and Rio Tinto Gain Control

CBA

CBA aluminium sale has cleared Brazil’s antitrust review after Cade approved the transaction with no restrictions. The decision allows China’s Aluminum Corporation, Chalco, and Rio Tinto to move closer to closing their acquisition of a 68.6% controlling stake in Brazilian aluminium producer CBA.

The CBA aluminium sale is strategically important because CBA is Brazil’s last remaining domestic aluminium producer. The company became especially significant after Vale sold its aluminium assets to Hydro in 2016, leaving CBA as the country’s main integrated aluminium platform.

The deal is valued at R4.69 billion, or about $900 million. Chalco and Rio Tinto also plan a tender offer to jointly acquire the remaining shares. Cade’s approval removes the last major regulatory hurdle before closing.

Integrated Aluminium Assets Give the Deal Industrial Weight

CBA operates across the full aluminium value chain. Its platform includes bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminium smelting, downstream processing, recycled aluminium production, and associated power supply.

This integrated structure gives the transaction more strategic value than a simple equity acquisition. Chalco and Rio Tinto are gaining exposure to upstream raw materials, refining capacity, smelting assets, fabrication capability, and recycling operations in one company.

CBA currently operates three producing bauxite mines with combined output of about 2mn t/yr. It also has 800,000 t/yr of alumina capacity, 430,000 t/yr of primary aluminium smelting capacity, and 215,000 t/yr of downstream processing capacity.

Brazil’s Aluminium Chain Enters a New Ownership Phase

The CBA aluminium sale could reshape Brazil’s aluminium industry by bringing two major global players deeper into the country’s industrial base. Chalco adds Chinese aluminium scale and market reach, while Rio Tinto brings global mining and aluminium experience.

Brazil’s development bank Bndes has also approved R715.9mn in funding to upgrade an aluminium production unit in São Paulo. That support suggests Brazil still sees aluminium as an industrial priority, even as ownership becomes more international.

For Brazil, the key issue will be whether the new ownership structure strengthens local production, investment, and downstream competitiveness. For global aluminium markets, the transaction reinforces the value of integrated assets at a time when bauxite, alumina, power, recycling, and low-carbon production routes are becoming increasingly strategic.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The CBA transaction shows that integrated aluminium assets remain highly valuable in a fragmented global supply chain. Brazil keeps the industrial base, but future competitiveness will depend on whether new ownership turns scale into investment, modernization, and stronger downstream capacity.

Germany Aluminium Industry Decline Deepens as Energy Costs and CBAM Pressure Competitiveness

Germany Aluminium

Germany aluminium industry decline is becoming harder to reverse as production, recycling, and capacity utilization remain well below 2021 levels. Aluminium Deutschland said the sector showed no growth since 2021. Fourth-quarter output stayed only 76-88pc of 2021 levels. As a result, Germany aluminium industry decline now looks more structural than cyclical.

This matters because the sector is losing strength across several product categories at once. Rolled products rose slightly in 2025, but still remained 12pc below 2021 levels. Extruded products fell 1pc last year and stayed 24pc below 2021. Therefore, German aluminium competitiveness is weakening across both primary and semi-finished segments.

The association blames policy and cost pressure for the downturn. High energy prices, weak relief measures, and regulations such as CBAM are central concerns. The wider economy also remains soft. Consequently, Germany aluminium industry decline is being driven by both weak demand and a more difficult operating environment.

German Aluminium Competitiveness Is Under Pressure From Energy and Policy

German aluminium competitiveness is under direct pressure from high power costs and ineffective industrial support. Aluminium Deutschland said current policy frameworks no longer support recovery. It also warned that traditional policy thinking is failing domestic industry. As a result, the sector sees competitiveness risk as a core threat, not a temporary obstacle.

CBAM impact on aluminium is also becoming more controversial inside the industry. The association argues that CBAM may add burdens instead of meaningful protection. That concern is especially serious in a sector already facing cost disadvantages. Therefore, German aluminium competitiveness may weaken further if policy tools fail to deliver real relief.

This issue matters because aluminium is deeply tied to industrial employment and manufacturing resilience. If producers continue losing ground, Germany may become more dependent on imported metal and products. Meanwhile, the country could lose more industrial capacity in areas that support broader supply chains.

Aluminium Recycling in Germany Also Shows Industrial Weakness

Aluminium recycling in Germany is also moving in the wrong direction. German companies produced 2.7mn t of recycled aluminium in 2025. That was down 1pc on the year and 16pc below 2021 levels. As a result, the decline is not limited to primary production or semi-finished products.

Weak downstream demand is a major reason. Automotive, construction, and plant engineering all remained soft. Tight scrap availability and high scrap prices also hurt recycling economics. Therefore, aluminium recycling in Germany now reflects both industrial slowdown and raw material stress.

This matters because recycling should be one of Europe’s stronger advantages in aluminium. When recycling weakens alongside broader production, it signals a much deeper industrial problem. Consequently, Germany aluminium industry decline now extends across the full value chain rather than one isolated segment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s aluminium sector is no longer describing a normal downturn. It is describing a competitiveness crisis. If energy costs, policy burdens, and weak demand continue together, Germany risks losing more than output. It risks losing strategic industrial capability.

EGA Aluminium Recycling Plant Moves Closer to Commissioning at Al Taweelah

EGA Aluminium Recycling Plant

The EGA aluminium recycling plant has reached a major construction milestone at Al Taweelah. Emirates Global Aluminium charged the melting furnace for the first time at its new recycling site. That step moves the project closer to final completion and commercial start-up. As a result, the EGA aluminium recycling plant is becoming a more important part of the UAE’s aluminium value chain.

This development matters because the facility will expand domestic recycling capacity at industrial scale. EGA expects the plant to be completed by the end of this quarter. Scrap sorting equipment commissioning already began in December last year. Meanwhile, work continues on the casting and homogenisation stations. Therefore, the Al Taweelah recycling facility is shifting from construction into final execution.

The project also supports a broader market trend toward lower-carbon aluminium supply. The plant will blend recycled and primary aluminium into low-carbon billets and T-bars. These products will be sold under the RevivAL brand. Consequently, EGA is positioning recycled content as a commercial and strategic advantage.

UAE Aluminium Recycling Capacity Is Entering a New Phase

UAE aluminium recycling is moving into a much larger industrial phase with this project. The new melting furnace has a capacity of 90,000 t/yr. The wider plant will produce 185,000 t/yr of billets and T-bars. That makes the project much more than a niche sustainability initiative.

Scale matters because regional scrap processing capacity remains limited compared with primary aluminium strength. EGA has long been associated with primary metal production. However, the new plant adds a downstream recycling layer that can improve raw material flexibility. As a result, the company can strengthen its position across both primary and secondary aluminium flows.

The project also has national significance. EGA said the facility will become the largest aluminium recycling plant in the UAE. It will also make the company the country’s largest scrap processor. Therefore, the plant may help create a more integrated domestic aluminium ecosystem with stronger circularity.

Low-Carbon Aluminium Billets Could Strengthen EGA’s Market Position

Low-carbon aluminium billets are becoming more important as buyers demand lower-emission metal solutions. Customers in construction, transport, and industrial manufacturing increasingly want products with stronger carbon credentials. EGA’s recycling project responds directly to that shift. Meanwhile, the inclusion of primary aluminium gives the company more control over consistency and specification.

This blended production model may also offer commercial flexibility. Pure scrap-based output can face limits in chemistry control and product range. By combining recycled and primary metal, EGA can target both sustainability and performance. Consequently, the plant could appeal to customers that want lower-carbon material without sacrificing technical requirements.

The timing is also notable for the wider aluminium market. Producers are under pressure to show credible decarbonisation pathways, not only long-term targets. New recycling assets offer one of the fastest ways to improve emissions intensity. Therefore, the EGA aluminium recycling plant could become a visible example of how Gulf aluminium producers adapt to changing market expectations.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project matters because it connects scale, recycling, and low-carbon product strategy in one asset. EGA is not just adding a furnace. It is building a stronger position in the future aluminium market, where recycled content and product quality will increasingly move together.

Novelis commissions bag houses at UK plant to double UBC recycling capacity

Novelis

Novelis commissions bag houses at UK plant to unlock its next recycling expansion step. Novelis commissions bag houses at UK plant in Latchford, England, as it prepares to double used beverage can processing. The move strengthens emissions control while the site upgrades core recycling equipment.

Novelis commissioned three new bag houses as part of a wider $90mn investment program. The project also adds a new dross house and technology upgrades across shredding and sorting. Meanwhile, the site improves de-coating and melting to lift throughput and metal recovery.

Novelis commissions bag houses at UK plant ahead of a tighter UK circularity policy cycle. The country will enforce a deposit return scheme for single-use drink containers from October 2027. As a result, UBC collection volumes should become more predictable for domestic recyclers.

What the $90mn Latchford expansion adds to recycling capacity

The Latchford facility already runs at 195,000 t/yr and handles both UBC and automotive-grade scrap. The expansion adds 85,000 t/yr of additional recycling capacity once fully ramped. Therefore, the plant can raise output without relying on primary aluminium growth.

Bag houses matter because they support cleaner, more stable operations at higher load. Better dust capture reduces downtime risk during shredding and melting. However, the real value comes from pairing emissions control with higher-capacity front-end processing.

Why the UK deposit return scheme changes the UBC economics

Deposit systems typically improve can return rates and cut contamination. Cleaner UBC feed reduces sorting loss and improves melt yield. As a result, recyclers can produce tighter spec recycled aluminium for rolling mills.

DRS timing also shapes investment sequencing for Novelis and its peers. The company moved early versus its original December 2026 commissioning target. Meanwhile, early readiness can help secure supply contracts as competition for UBC tightens.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This expansion signals a shift from “capacity announcements” to operational readiness. However, the margin upside depends on UBC quality and energy costs through 2027. The best-positioned rollers will lock in feedstock and optimize melt yield.

EGA Leichtmetall Recycling Expansion Signals a Bigger Bet on European Secondary Aluminium

EGA, Recycling Plant

EGA Leichtmetall recycling expansion will lift the Hanover site into a new scale tier. The project will multiply capacity and deepen access to post-consumer aluminium scrap. EGA Leichtmetall recycling expansion also reflects a strategic shift toward recycling-led growth. Therefore, EGA positions itself closer to end markets and circular supply chains.

The Hanover facility currently melts and casts about 30,000 tonnes per year. The new plan adds 110,000 tonnes per year of scrap sorting capacity. It also adds 153,000 tonnes per year of melting and casting capacity. As a result, the plant can upgrade feedstock flexibility and expand secondary aluminium output.

X-ray and laser sorting targets higher-quality recycled aluminium

Advanced scrap sorting matters when recyclers chase tighter chemistry limits. X-ray and laser systems can separate alloys with higher precision. However, post-consumer aluminium scrap arrives with mixed grades and contaminants. Therefore, better sorting protects metal yields and finished product consistency.

The expansion aims to produce high-quality aluminium from post-consumer streams. That capability can support automotive, packaging, and general engineering customers. Meanwhile, EU policy pressure continues to favor recycled content and lower embedded carbon. As a result, premium secondary metal can win share over primary in selected applications.

EGA’s global recycling footprint expands alongside US growth plans

This move fits EGA’s acquisitive strategy in foreign markets. EGA acquired Leichtmetall last year as an entry point into European recycling. Meanwhile, EGA also increased its exposure to US secondary aluminium after buying into Spectro Alloys. Therefore, EGA can balance regional scrap markets and customer demand cycles.

EGA has already announced expansions at Spectro Alloys to lift total capacity above 200,000 tonnes per year. The group also signaled long-term interest in US primary capacity and broader upstream options. However, recycling assets deliver faster carbon and market proximity benefits. As a result, projects like Hanover can become the core growth engine through 2028.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA is building a two-speed aluminium strategy that pairs scale with circularity. However, execution will hinge on scrap sourcing and product qualification with demanding customers. The winners will be the recyclers who convert mixed scrap into consistent alloys at industrial scale.

Trimet Aluminium Recycling Capacity Rises as Essen Expands Scrap Handling

Trimet aluminium

Trimet aluminium recycling capacity will rise after the company completed a new scrap storage hall in Essen. The project upgrades how Trimet handles aluminium scrap grades and primary inputs. Trimet aluminium recycling capacity will increase by about 16,000 tonnes per year. Therefore, the site can push higher recycled output with tighter quality control.

The new hall supports segregated storage for multiple aluminium scrap grades. The design also separates aluminium pieces and primary metal inputs. Meanwhile, new outdoor storage areas extend sorting flexibility. As a result, Trimet can reduce cross-contamination and improve melt planning.

Better scrap segregation targets yield, quality, and throughput

Aluminium scrap storage hall investments often deliver fast operational gains. Better separation improves furnace charge consistency and reduces dross losses. However, recyclers still face volatility in scrap availability and pricing. Therefore, storage infrastructure becomes a strategic tool, not just a logistics upgrade.

The Essen upgrade also supports faster internal workflows. Material moves with clearer identification and fewer handling steps. Meanwhile, quality teams can enforce tighter inbound controls. As a result, Trimet can offer more predictable recycled aluminium specifications to customers.

EU scrap export restrictions could reset regional scrap flows

EU scrap export restrictions may reshape the European aluminium scrap market next year. European recyclers have struggled as export buyers outbid domestic processors. However, policy measures that keep more scrap in Europe could increase feedstock availability. Therefore, recycling economics can improve for plants like Essen.

The policy shift could also influence contracting behavior. Buyers may seek longer supply agreements to secure volumes. Meanwhile, recyclers will compete on conversion efficiency and compliance. As a result, operational excellence will matter as much as scrap access.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This investment signals a disciplined push toward higher recycled content and better process control. However, Trimet’s upside will depend on how quickly scrap flows normalize in Europe. The strongest recyclers will pair feedstock security with consistent alloy quality.

EU end-of-life vehicles regulation sets recycled content targets for cars

Recycled content for cars

The EU end-of-life vehicles regulation will set recycled content targets for cars across the bloc. The deal phases in recycled plastics content in new vehicles over the next decade. Therefore, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation reshapes how automakers source plastics, steel, and aluminium.

The European Parliament and EU states reached a provisional agreement on the rules. The plan sets 15% recycled plastics in six years. It then rises to 25% in ten years. Meanwhile, 20% of those plastics must come from end-of-life vehicles or reused components.

Recycled steel and aluminium targets move to a feasibility phase

Targets for recycled steel and aluminium will follow later. The European Commission will run feasibility studies first. As a result, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation creates a staged pathway for metal recycling mandates.

This approach gives industry time to validate scrap availability and quality. However, it still signals future demand for low-carbon secondary aluminium and recycled steel. Therefore, suppliers should prepare for tighter traceability and mass-balance scrutiny.

Producer responsibility and export rules tighten material retention

The agreement expands collection and depollution rules to more vehicle categories. It will cover heavy-duty vehicles, motorcycles, and special purpose vehicles. Meanwhile, the regulation will introduce a cross-border extended producer responsibility scheme three years after entry.

Manufacturers will carry financial and organisational responsibility across the vehicle lifecycle. The rules also aim to distinguish used vehicles from end-of-life vehicles more clearly. Five years after entry, the EU will ban exports of non-roadworthy used vehicles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy pushes the auto supply chain toward circular materials at scale. However, recycled aluminium and steel targets will hinge on scrap sorting and clean-stream capacity. Therefore, early movers in certified recycling and traceable alloys gain leverage.

Hubei STR anode recycling plant will start in March 2026 as China’s battery scrap accelerates

Lithium-Ion Battery

Hubei STR will start the Hubei STR anode recycling plant in March 2026. The project targets 50,000 t/yr of recycled anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. The company began site construction in January 2022. As a result, the facility enters the market as battery recycling volumes rise sharply.

Battery scrap volumes will surge as China’s first NEV wave reaches end-of-life. Lithium-ion batteries usually retire when capacity falls to 80%. The US Advanced Battery Consortium links this threshold to an 8–12 year service life. Therefore, post-2025 retirements should expand the available feedstock for anode material recycling.

China’s EV scale is turning recycling into a supply chain priority

China’s EV scale is making the Hubei STR anode recycling plant strategically timed. China pushed NEV output above one million units in 2018. NEVs reached 40.9% of total auto sales in 2024. Meanwhile, October NEV sales hit 1.72mn units and took 51.6% market share.

Recycling capacity must follow that growth curve. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers forecasts NEV sales near 16mn units in 2025, up from 12.86mn in 2024. China Automotive Engineering Society estimates retired power batteries exceeded 580,000t in 2023. It expects retirements to reach 6mn t by 2030. Consequently, anode recycling becomes a cost, ESG, and security lever for battery makers.

Graphite recovery and copper foil separation define the value capture

Graphite recovery drives much of the anode recycling economics. The lithium-ion battery recycling process starts with dismantling and material separation. Recyclers can recover plastics and the diaphragm from anode-side components. They can also extract aluminium foil from cathode materials.

Graphite recovery then becomes the key upgrade step. Recyclers separate graphite from copper foil in spent anodes. They purify the graphite and sell it back into the battery materials chain. Therefore, the Hubei STR anode recycling plant can support a more circular anode supply. It can also reduce exposure to price swings in battery-grade inputs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s recycling race is shifting from metals recovery to materials performance. Therefore, graphite purity and consistent output will decide who wins long-term contracts. However, recyclers must prove traceability and ESG compliance to unlock premium pricing.

Global aluminium deficit to widen as EV and renewable demand surges

Global aluminium

Global aluminium deficit is set to widen from 2025 as demand outruns constrained supply. Forecasts show global primary aluminium supply rising to 74.3mn t in 2025, 75.8mn t in 2026 and 76.5mn t in 2027, driven mainly by new smelter projects outside China. However, parallel demand growth from electric vehicles and renewable energy will push consumption to 74.5mn t in 2025, 76.1mn t in 2026 and 76.8mn t in 2027, creating annual deficits. These figures translate into a global aluminium deficit of 166,000t in 2025, 281,000t in 2026 and 291,000t in 2027, underscoring a steadily tightening balance.

EV and regional supply dynamics reshape global aluminium deficit

The global aluminium deficit emerges despite incremental regional capacity growth and relatively stable legacy production. Australian primary aluminium output is expected to remain flat at 1.6mn t/yr across 2025-27, highlighting limited upside from a key exporter. Meanwhile, Chinese production is expected to remain below its formal 45mn t/yr cap, reinforcing structural constraints in the world’s largest market. Additional tonnes will therefore come from newer producers, with Indonesia forecast to lift output to 700,000t in 2025 and then double to 1.4mn t by 2027.

India also plays an important role in narrowing, but not eliminating, the global aluminium deficit. Indian primary production is expected to reach 4.2mn t in 2025 and 4.7mn t in 2027, supported by recent smelter investments and captive power integration. However, growth in EV and renewable segments is highly aluminium-intensive, especially for body sheet, castings and extrusions. As a result, structural demand from auto light-weighting, power transmission, solar frames and battery casings will likely sustain the global aluminium deficit even if some projects underperform. Rising primary prices and strong interest in low-carbon metal will deepen the premium gap between conventional and certified low-carbon material.

Recycling, alumina and bauxite respond to shifting aluminium fundamentals

Recycled metal is set to play a larger role in balancing the global aluminium deficit. Global demand for recycled aluminium is expected to increase from 27mn t in 2025 to 29mn t in 2027, reflecting OEM and policy pressure to cut embedded emissions. Total recycled output is forecast to reach 40mn t in 2025 and 44mn t in 2027, driven by higher utilisation of scrap in China, the US and Europe. This shift will partly cushion primary tightness, but scrap quality, collection systems and sorting capacity will limit how far recycling alone can offset the global aluminium deficit.

Midstream markets show a different pattern, with alumina entering a cyclical surplus even as primary metal tightens. Global alumina output is expected to increase to 148mn t in 2025 and 164mn t by 2027, while demand rises more slowly to 145mn t in 2025 and 151mn t in 2027. This surplus suggests downward pressure on alumina prices as global production recovers. Australian alumina output is forecast to rise from under 17.4mn t in 2024–25 to over 18.5mn t in 2026–27, supported by higher production at the Worsley refinery. In turn, global bauxite supply is projected to reach 422mn t in 2025 and 443mn t in 2027, against demand of 373mn t and 414mn t, highlighting a modest buffer at the ore stage even as the global aluminium deficit tightens the finished metal market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The projected global aluminium deficit through 2027 underscores how quickly EV and renewable investment can tighten a previously balanced market. For producers, stable alumina and ample bauxite create a favourable cost backdrop, but power prices and carbon policies will still define margins. For buyers, competition for low-carbon and recycled units will intensify, making long-term contracts, scrap strategy and regional diversification critical to securing supply.

Hydro Alumetal integration positions Hydro as recycled aluminium leader

Hydro

Hydro Alumetal integration marks a decisive shift in Europe’s recycled aluminium market. Norway’s Hydro will fully integrate Alumetal and rebrand its four recycling plants under the Hydro name. The move aims to create one unified supplier brand for automotive foundry alloys across Europe.

Hydro Alumetal integration builds scale in European foundry alloys

Hydro Alumetal integration brings 280,000 t/yr of recycled aluminium capacity under a single industrial platform. The three Polish sites will operate as Hydro Kety, Hydro Gorzyce and Hydro Nowa Sol, while Hungary’s plant becomes Hydro Komarom. These locations primarily serve the automotive industry, which demands consistent, certifiable foundry alloys.

Hydro already invested in modernising and expanding the Kety plant to upgrade productivity and product quality. As a result, the integrated footprint can support more complex alloy portfolios and tighter customer specifications. The company also gains better logistics coordination across central Europe, which helps large original equipment manufacturers manage just-in-time deliveries.

By presenting “one face to the market”, Hydro Alumetal integration is designed to lift its share in European foundry alloys. A unified commercial strategy should also strengthen pricing power in a segment under pressure from energy costs and import competition. Over time, integration can unlock further synergies in scrap sourcing, melting efficiency and low-carbon product development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hydro Alumetal integration underlines how recycled aluminium is becoming a core strategic pillar for European metals groups. The move tightens Hydro’s grip on automotive foundry alloys just as carmakers intensify their focus on circularity and embedded CO₂. The key watchpoint will be how quickly Hydro converts brand integration and past investments into higher margins and premium low-carbon alloy offerings.

Amag aluminium earnings fall in 2Q as US tariffs squeeze margins

Amag aluminium

Amag aluminium earnings fell in the second quarter as US tariffs and higher costs hit profitability. EBITDA dropped 34.7% to €34.6mn while revenue rose 3.5% to €384.8mn. Shipments edged up 0.4% to 110,800t, yet pricing pressure intensified. Meanwhile, the 50% US tariff effective 4 June will weigh more on the second half. As a result, Amag aluminium earnings remain under strain despite stable volumes.

Tariffs and costs pressure all divisions

Tariffs and input inflation affected metals, casting, and rolling. The metals division absorbed higher alumina prices and US import duties. The casting unit faced sharper price pressure for recycled cast alloys. Therefore, the rolling division endured tariff-driven trade flow shifts and market price declines. Elevated energy and labour costs compounded the squeeze on margins and Amag aluminium earnings.

Half-year results and H2 setup

First-half EBITDA fell 15.4% to €80.6mn on revenue up 11.1% to €786.2mn. Shipments increased 2.9% to 220,400t, but profitability lagged volume. The company expects the 50% US tariff to bite harder in H2 2025. Management maintained stable capacity utilisation, yet near-term losses from tariffs and costs cannot be offset. The CEO urged a viable US trade agreement and improved domestic conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tariff escalation is amplifying European downstream aluminium margin risk just as power and wage bills stay high. Amag’s levers are mix, energy efficiency, and sales re-routing while advocating predictable US-EU trade terms. Watch H2 for the full tariff impact and any relief from alumina and energy costs.

European Aluminium Calls for Unified CO2 Calculation Standards

European Aluminium

Industry Push for Harmonised Emissions Methodology

European Aluminium has urged the EU to establish a universal methodology for calculating carbon emissions across aluminium value chains. The industry body warned that fragmented national approaches create compliance burdens and hinder the EU’s decarbonisation targets. Member states are currently using varied methods that include renewable energy credits, recycled inputs, and innovative processes, but lack of alignment reduces comparability and efficiency.

The association addressed its concerns directly to European Commission leaders, stressing that inconsistent emissions reporting undermines transparency. It highlighted the need for alignment to support the EU’s broader climate strategy, particularly as aluminium plays a critical role in low-carbon industries such as automotive, construction, and packaging.

Regulatory Landscape and Policy Recommendations

European Aluminium pointed to ongoing regulatory frameworks such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) standards for EV batteries. These regulations demonstrate momentum toward emissions accountability but also expose gaps caused by inconsistent calculation methods.

The group expressed support for the European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID), which aims to streamline reporting across EU institutions. However, it warned that achieving a single emissions calculation framework might require adjusting legislative deadlines to allow industry and regulators sufficient time for harmonisation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A harmonised carbon calculation system would significantly reduce compliance costs for aluminium producers and ensure fair competition across the EU market. Without it, fragmented rules risk weakening Europe’s industrial base at a time when decarbonisation and strategic autonomy are top priorities. The call from European Aluminium underscores the urgency for the EU to deliver clarity and consistency.

Rusal Begins Commercial Production of Low-Carbon Foundry Alloys

Rusal

Post-Consumer Scrap Boosts Low-Carbon Aluminium Output

Russian aluminium producer Rusal has commenced commercial production of low-carbon foundry alloys at its Irkutsk aluminium smelter. The new production line integrates post-consumer scrap into Rusal’s Allow brand, which is manufactured using renewable hydropower. This move strengthens the company’s position in the growing low-carbon aluminium market.

Rusal began trial production in early 2023 with scrap accounting for around 20% of feedstock. The proportion has now increased to approximately 40% for commercial output. According to the company, the process involves adding consumer scrap to molten low-carbon aluminium, ensuring both emissions reduction and efficient resource use.

Targeting the Automotive Industry’s Sustainability Demands

The adoption of low-carbon foundry alloys is driven by rising demand from industries prioritizing sustainability, particularly automotive manufacturing. Rusal aims to supply customers seeking environmentally responsible aluminium units for casting components. By combining recycled materials with hydropower-based aluminium production, the company aligns with global carbon reduction goals and offers a competitive advantage in markets with strict sustainability standards.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rusal’s integration of post-consumer scrap into low-carbon aluminium reflects a critical industry trend toward circular production models. The ability to meet both environmental targets and performance standards will be key in capturing market share in sectors like automotive, where sustainability is becoming a procurement requirement. This approach also demonstrates how aluminium producers can reduce emissions without compromising product quality.

German Aluminium Output Rises Slightly, but Industry Urges Policy Support

German Aluminium Industry

Weak Demand and High Energy Prices Threaten Recovery

German aluminium output rises slightly in Q1 2025, marking the first production uptick after nearly three years of decline. According to industry association Aluminium Deutschland, recycled aluminium production increased 3% year-on-year to 703,000 tonnes, while semi-finished products edged up 1% to 576,000 tonnes. However, this growth appears fragile, with no underlying increase in demand and restocking cited as the main driver.

Rolled aluminium product output rose 2% to 456,000 tonnes, while extruded products fell 2% to 121,000 tonnes. This divergence indicates ongoing weakness in value-added segments. In 2024, Germany's aluminium sector had posted a 2% drop in recycled aluminium and a 3% decline in semi-finished products, underscoring the prolonged pressure on producers. Therefore, although German aluminium output rises slightly, the sector remains far from full recovery.

Aluminium Deutschland president Rob van Gils warned that the rebound is not demand-driven and emphasized the need for lower energy prices and clear investment frameworks. The call comes as Germany transitions to a new coalition government following political instability earlier this year. Without structural policy support, Germany risks entering 2025 as a stagnant industrial economy. The aluminium sector is demanding urgent reforms to avoid becoming Europe’s next manufacturing casualty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s modest aluminium output growth reflects restocking activity, not industrial recovery. Without energy price reform and investor confidence, the nation’s aluminium sector could slide further—despite its technological strength and recycling capacity.

Novelis Achieves Breakthrough Hydrogen Test for Aluminium Recycling at Latchford Plant

Novelis

Hydrogen Melting Furnace Cuts Carbon Emissions by Up to 90%

Net Zero Innovation Portfolio and HyNet Project Drive Industry Decarbonisation

Novelis, a leading US-based aluminium rolling and recycling company, has successfully tested hydrogen as a fuel for a recycling furnace at its Latchford, UK facility. The company reported that using hydrogen in the melting process can reduce carbon emissions by up to 90% compared to conventional methods.

Hydrogen Technology Supports Major UK Decarbonisation Initiatives

These tests were conducted under the UK’s Net Zero Innovation Portfolio and the regional HyNet project, both of which focus on low-carbon hydrogen production and industrial CO₂ capture. Novelis has participated in HyNet since 2017, supporting the shift to greener metals manufacturing across northwest England and north Wales.

The firm will now expand hydrogen-based, recycled alloy production processes at multiple European plants. Novelis also plans to publish results as part of the UK Industrial Fuel Switching programme later in 2024, sharing key findings with industry partners.

Latchford Expansion Doubles UBC Recycling and Cuts Emissions

In July 2023, Novelis announced a $90 million investment to more than double the Latchford plant’s used beverage can (UBC) recycling capacity. New equipment—including a dross house, shredding and melting systems—will boost recycling capacity by 85,000 t/year and lower annual carbon emissions by over 350,000 tonnes.

This hydrogen breakthrough supports Novelis’ broader push for sustainability and could drive innovation across global recycling operations. Latchford plant manager Allan Sweeney emphasized that these results will inspire further hydrogen research and deployment company-wide.

New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

China Expands Copper and Aluminium Duty Exemptions for 2025

Recycled Copper

In a bid to promote sustainable growth, China has announced expanded import duty exemptions on recycled copper and aluminium feedstocks for 2025. This change is part of the country’s broader strategy to bolster green and low-carbon development in its metal industries. The move reflects China’s ongoing efforts to ease restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium imports, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets.

Expansion of Duty Exemptions

Under the new policy, China will expand the HS code 74040000 to include “recycled copper and alloy feedstock” for 2025, up from just "recycled brass copper feedstock" and "recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. Similarly, the HS code 76020000 will also broaden to cover “recycled aluminium and alloy feedstock” from the previous scope of "recycled cast aluminum alloy feedstock" in 2024. The import duties for both categories will remain at zero for 2025, continuing the exemptions in place for 2024.

This expansion is intended to enhance the country’s circular economy and support the shift toward greener practices in the recycling and processing of metals. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the adjustments will help promote low-carbon development, driving demand for sustainable production methods.

The move follows an increase in China’s copper scrap imports, which saw a 14% rise from January to November in 2024 compared to the previous year, signaling a positive trend for the country's metal recycling sector.

Continued Duties on Other Base Metals

While China is easing import duties on certain recycled metals, the government has decided to keep export duties on various base metals, minor metals, ferro-alloys, and rare earths in place for 2025. This includes maintaining the 40% export duty on ferro-chrome, a 25% duty on silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, and a 20% export duty on ferro-manganese. These duties align with China’s broader objective of controlling the export of energy-intensive and pollution-heavy products.

The country will also continue with export duties on a variety of concentrates, such as lead, zinc, tantalum, and niobium, as well as a 20% duty on tin, tungsten, and antimony concentrates, which are less frequently exported due to China’s limited domestic resources of these metals. Additionally, China will maintain duties on several metals, including a 5-15% export duty on copper, nickel, and zinc alloys and products.

China's new policy also includes a zero import duty on spodumene for 2025, marking another significant move in its strategic approach to securing key raw materials for its growing battery and electronics industries.

NATO Prioritizes Critical Metals for Strengthening Defense Supply Chains

NATO

NATO has unveiled a list of 12 critical raw materials deemed essential for the production of advanced defense systems and military equipment, underscoring the need for secure and resilient supply chains in the face of growing geopolitical tensions. This initiative is part of NATO’s broader strategy to safeguard its technological edge and ensure the operational readiness of its member nations.

Key Critical Metals for Defense Applications

The metals identified by NATO include aluminium, beryllium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, lithium, manganese, platinum, rare earth elements, titanium, and tungsten. These materials play a pivotal role in the development of military aircraft, missiles, tanks, and submarines, among other defense technologies. For example:

• Aluminium: Used in military aircraft and missiles for its lightweight and high-strength properties.

• Graphite: Integral to the production of tanks and corvettes, known for its thermal stability and strength.

• Cobalt: Essential for creating superalloys used in jet engines and submarines to withstand extreme temperatures.

NATO's secretary-general Mark Rutte emphasized the need to ramp up defense production and spending during a recent address in Brussels, calling it a “top priority” amid escalating security challenges.

Building Resilient Supply Chains: NATO's Strategic Focus

NATO's roadmap for securing critical materials encompasses five strategic lines of action, including:

1. Strategic Stockpiling: Ensuring reserves of key materials to mitigate supply disruptions.
2. Recycling: Harnessing recycled materials to reduce dependency on new mining operations.
3. Substitution: Researching alternative materials to replace scarce or geopolitically sensitive metals.

This comprehensive approach reflects NATO’s commitment to reducing vulnerabilities in defense-critical supply chains. Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding rare earth elements and other critical metals, have heightened the complexity of defense manufacturing. For instance, trade disputes involving key suppliers like China and Russia have underscored the need for diversified sourcing and secure logistics.

Geopolitical Implications and Defense Strategy

The move aligns with broader global concerns about critical materials. Several NATO member states rely heavily on imports for materials like rare earth elements, predominantly sourced from China, which controls over 60% of global rare earth production. NATO’s strategy highlights the importance of mitigating this dependency through alliances, domestic production, and innovative technologies.

The roadmap also acknowledges the role of emerging economies in supplying materials like lithium and cobalt, critical for both defense applications and the burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market. Collaborations with these nations may be essential in ensuring a steady supply of critical metals.