Mt Marion Lithium Expansion Advances as MinRes and Ganfeng Lift Spodumene Supply

Mineral Resources

Mt Marion lithium expansion is moving ahead after Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium reached a final investment decision on a A$490mn upgrade at the Western Australian mine. The project will raise 6% spodumene concentrate output from 500,000 t/yr to 600,000 t/yr.

Mt Marion lithium expansion reflects renewed confidence in spodumene markets after a period of stronger pricing, Chinese demand and supply disruption from Zimbabwean export controls. The decision also reinforces Australia’s role as a core lithium feedstock supplier to global battery material chains.

Mt Marion lithium expansion includes A$220mn for underground mine development, A$240mn for a flotation plant and A$30mn for non-processing infrastructure. Construction is scheduled to begin in July-September.

The partners expect to commission the mine within 12 months of construction starting, with production ramp-up over the following six months. That timeline makes Mt Marion an important near-term growth project in the Australian hard-rock lithium sector.

Underground Mining Extends Mine Life and Feed Flexibility

The underground mine will supplement ore from the existing open pit and contribute up to 40% of processing feed. This will extend Mt Marion’s remaining mine life by six years beyond the previous estimate of 10 years.

That is strategically important because mine life extension improves supply visibility for customers and investors. Battery chemical producers need stable spodumene feedstock to support long-term lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate production.

The underground development also gives MinRes and Ganfeng more operational flexibility. Combining open-pit and underground ore can support feed blending, grade control and continuity as the mine matures.

The project will cause minimal disruption to existing operations, according to the company. That matters because the mine is already a major producing asset and any downtime could affect near-term shipments.

Mt Marion is also backed by a strong downstream partner. Ganfeng is one of China’s leading lithium companies, giving the project a direct link to one of the world’s largest battery materials markets.

Flotation Plant Targets Higher-Grade Product Mix

The new flotation plant will remove SC3.5 product from MinRes’ mix and deliver a minimum SC5 grade product. This is a key upgrade because higher-grade concentrate can improve processing efficiency for downstream converters.

SC6 remains the benchmark product for hard-rock lithium supply. Increasing SC6 output to 600,000 t/yr gives Mt Marion stronger exposure to higher-value concentrate markets.

The investment economics are highly sensitive to price. At an assumed SC6 price of $2,700/t, MinRes expects the expansion payback period to be less than one year.

Spodumene prices have risen in recent months, supported by Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate export controls and strong Chinese demand. The latest Australian SC6 assessment was $2,661/t on 19 May, down from $2,811/t a week earlier but still elevated enough to support renewed investment.

MinRes also cited higher lithium prices as a reason for restarting operations at its Bald Hill mine in Western Australia. Together, these moves suggest producers are again positioning for stronger lithium feedstock demand.

The broader lithium market remains volatile, but the Mt Marion decision shows that high-quality Australian assets can still attract capital when pricing, partners and mine-life extension align.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mt Marion’s expansion shows that lithium investment is returning first to established, scalable assets with strong downstream links. The key lesson is that the next lithium cycle will reward producers that can improve grade, extend mine life and secure reliable routes into China’s battery supply chain.

AMG Lithium Hydroxide Sales Lift First-Quarter Profit as German Refinery Starts Output

AMG Lithium

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales drove a sharp first-quarter turnaround as AMG Lithium began selling unqualified battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its new German refinery. The subsidiary of AMG Critical Minerals sold $21mn of lithium hydroxide in January-March, helping revenue rise by 89%.

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales marked the first commercial contribution from the German refinery. The plant produced its first commercial batches during the quarter, giving AMG a new downstream revenue stream beyond spodumene concentrate.

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales remain at an early stage because the material has not yet completed customer qualification and approval processes for long-term supply contracts. The “unqualified” label does not mean the product lacks battery-grade characteristics. It means customers have not yet fully approved it for routine contracted supply.

The result shows how lithium producers are trying to move further down the battery materials chain. Spodumene mining remains important, but lithium hydroxide refining offers higher-value exposure if qualification, consistency and customer approvals are achieved.

German Refinery Adds Downstream Lithium Exposure

AMG Lithium’s first-quarter performance shows the strategic value of adding refining capacity in Europe. The German refinery allows the company to convert lithium feedstock into lithium hydroxide closer to European battery and cathode customers.

Battery-grade lithium hydroxide is a key input for nickel-rich cathode chemistries used in electric vehicles and high-performance batteries. European supply remains strategically important as the region seeks to reduce dependence on imported battery chemicals.

The refinery’s first commercial batches therefore carry industrial significance beyond the initial sales value. AMG is building a position in the midstream lithium chain, where qualification, product quality and customer trust determine long-term value.

However, qualification remains the key hurdle. Battery customers require strict consistency, impurity control and process reliability before committing to long-term supply agreements.

The company’s current sales are therefore an early commercial step, not a fully mature refinery ramp-up. The next stage will depend on customer approvals, stable production volumes and the ability to secure higher-value contracts.

Brazil Spodumene Recovery Supports Integrated Model

AMG’s Brazil lithium mine also improved during the quarter. Spodumene production rose by 11% on the year to 13,454t, recovering after ore grade and equipment issues affected output last year.

The mine is back operating in line with AMG’s 2026 target guidance of 130,000 t/yr. Current capacity is around 100,000-110,000 t/yr, according to the company.

Spodumene pricing also strengthened. AMG’s average realised cif China spodumene sales price rose to $916/t in the first quarter, up 43% from $640/t a year earlier.

Higher lithium prices supported the lithium segment’s profitability. AMG Lithium swung to a $15.4mn profit from a $13.9mn loss a year earlier, helped partly by the upward valuation of existing inventory.

But the group’s overall profit still fell by 25% because AMG excludes inventory mark-ups from its final figures. This shows that headline lithium segment improvement partly reflects accounting treatment rather than only operating cash generation.

Shipping delays also capped first-quarter performance. More than 12,000t of spodumene shipments were delayed into April-June, pushing related revenue into the second quarter.

For AMG, the strategic direction is clear. The company is combining Brazilian spodumene production with European lithium hydroxide refining to capture more value across the lithium chain. The model will become stronger if refinery qualification progresses and delayed shipments translate into second-quarter revenue.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG Lithium’s first-quarter profit shows how quickly downstream refining can change the earnings profile of a lithium producer. The real test is not the first $21mn of hydroxide sales, but whether AMG can qualify the product, scale output and turn European refining into a durable margin advantage.

Appalachian Lithium Reserves Could Strengthen US Domestic Supply Security

USGS

Appalachian lithium reserves could give the US a much larger domestic resource base than previously recognised, according to a new assessment from the US Geological Survey. The agency said the eastern US Appalachian region may contain enough undiscovered, economically recoverable lithium to replace 328 years of US imports at 2025 levels.

Appalachian lithium reserves are hosted in pegmatites, large-grained rocks similar to granite. The southern Appalachian region is estimated to contain 1.43mn t of lithium oxide, while the northern Appalachian region holds another 0.90mn t.

Appalachian lithium reserves matter because the US still depends heavily on imported lithium. The country has only one current lithium producer and relied on imports for more than half of its supply in 2025.

The assessment adds another possible domestic supply route alongside lithium brine projects in the Smackover formation. Together, these resources could reshape US lithium strategy if they can be converted into permitted, economic and commercially scalable projects.

Pegmatite Resources Add a Hard-Rock Lithium Option

The Appalachian assessment points to hard-rock lithium potential in the eastern US. Pegmatite-hosted lithium is different from brine-based production because it usually requires mining, concentration and chemical conversion.

This gives the US another possible supply pathway. Hard-rock projects can produce spodumene concentrate, which can then be converted into lithium chemicals for batteries, energy storage and industrial uses.

Albemarle is already planning a lithium concentrator facility at Kings Mountain, North Carolina. The project is designed to produce 420,000 t/yr of lithium concentrate from spodumene.

That project is important because it could help rebuild a US hard-rock lithium supply chain. Domestic spodumene production would reduce reliance on foreign raw material and support future US conversion capacity.

However, resource estimates alone do not guarantee supply. Appalachian lithium projects would still need exploration, permitting, mine development, processing investment, environmental approvals and downstream customer qualification.

The strategic significance is still clear. The US lithium conversation is expanding beyond Nevada brines and western projects into eastern hard-rock resources with long-term supply potential.

Smackover Brines and Appalachian Pegmatites Broaden US Lithium Strategy

The Appalachian estimate follows earlier USGS work on the Smackover formation in southwest Arkansas. In 2024, the agency assessed that Smackover brines contain 5mn-19mn t of lithium, although it did not define economically recoverable volumes.

Several companies, including Equinor, ExxonMobil, EnergyX and Standard Lithium, are developing lithium projects in the Smackover region. Some are targeting commercial output around 2027.

The Smackover and Appalachian resource bases are strategically different but complementary. Smackover projects depend on brine extraction and processing technologies, while Appalachian projects would likely depend on hard-rock mining and spodumene concentration.

This diversification matters for US supply security. A lithium strategy based on multiple geological sources is more resilient than one dependent on a single basin, technology or company.

The US will still need processing capacity. Mining lithium ore or extracting lithium from brine does not automatically create battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide.

That midstream gap remains the critical issue. Domestic resources must be connected to refining, chemical conversion, permitting, infrastructure and offtake agreements before they can reduce import dependence.

For battery manufacturers, the Appalachian assessment offers a long-term signal. More domestic resource potential could support future supply chains for electric vehicles, grid storage and defence-related battery applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Appalachian lithium assessment is a resource-security signal, not an immediate supply solution. The US has the geology, but the decisive bottleneck will be converting resources into permitted mines, concentrators and battery-grade lithium chemicals.

PLS Lithium Phosphate Offtake Signals Shift Toward Midstream Battery Materials

PLS Lithium

PLS lithium phosphate offtake with China’s Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology marks a strategic step by the Australian lithium producer into higher-value battery materials. The agreement covers lithium phosphate from PLS’ midstream lithium refining demonstration plant.

PLS lithium phosphate offtake gives the company an early customer pathway as it tests whether spodumene can be converted into an intermediate chemical product with broader downstream appeal. The plant is scheduled to deliver first product in the third quarter of 2026.

PLS lithium phosphate offtake also links the company directly with Ronbay, one of the world’s largest lithium iron phosphate cathode material producers. Ronbay will provide technical support as PLS works to optimise product quality and specification.

The agreement’s price and volume details were not disclosed. But the pricing structure will broadly reference lithium chemical prices, with a proportional mechanism similar to spodumene pricing.

Lithium Phosphate Could Shorten the LFP Supply Chain

PLS’ demonstration plant is designed to produce more than 3,000 t/yr of lithium phosphate. It will consume about 27,000 t/yr of spodumene.

The company took full ownership of the plant from former joint-venture partner Calix in February. That gives PLS more control over the development route as it moves beyond conventional lithium concentrate sales.

The strategic importance lies in the possible use of lithium phosphate as a direct feedstock for LFP cathode production. Some LFP cathode producers are testing lithium phosphate instead of lithium carbonate because it could shorten processing steps and reduce total production costs.

This matters because LFP batteries are gaining share in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Cathode producers want lower-cost, reliable and scalable lithium inputs that can support high-volume manufacturing.

If lithium phosphate can meet strict cathode specifications, PLS could access a new customer base. Instead of selling only to lithium hydroxide or carbonate converters, it could sell directly into cathode material supply chains.

That would move PLS closer to battery manufacturers and allow it to capture more margin inside the lithium value chain.

Quality Testing Will Determine Commercial Potential

The opportunity remains at an early stage. PLS has warned that lithium phosphate must meet demanding quality requirements before it can become a commercial cathode feedstock.

Battery material customers require tight control over impurities, consistency, particle characteristics and chemical performance. A product that works technically at small scale must still prove reliability across repeated production.

Ronbay’s role is therefore important. As a major LFP cathode producer, it can provide practical feedback on product suitability, processing performance and downstream qualification needs.

The agreement also reflects a broader trend in lithium markets. Producers are no longer focused only on mining and concentrate production. They are looking for midstream products that can reduce processing complexity and improve customer access.

For PLS, lithium phosphate could serve multiple markets. It may supply existing lithium chemical producers, while also opening a direct route to cathode manufacturers.

The demonstration plant will test whether that strategy can move from concept to commercial scale. If successful, it could give spodumene producers a new pathway into battery materials without fully entering carbonate or hydroxide production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PLS’ lithium phosphate strategy is a clear attempt to move higher in the battery value chain without jumping directly into full chemical conversion. The key test will be whether cathode makers accept lithium phosphate as a reliable feedstock at scale, not just as a technical possibility.

Nickel Deficit Forecast Emerges as Indonesia Tightens Ore Supply

Nickel manufacturing

Nickel deficit conditions are expected to return in 2026 as Indonesia tightens ore supply controls and stainless steel demand continues to grow. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts global primary nickel production of 3.715mn t against usage of 3.747mn t, implying a deficit of 32,000t.

The nickel deficit would mark a sharp change after three consecutive years of surplus. The market recorded surpluses of 175,000t in 2023, 116,000t in 2024 and 283,000t in 2025.

The nickel deficit forecast remains modest, but it carries strategic significance because it depends heavily on Indonesian policy. Indonesia has been the main driver of global nickel supply growth, and tighter controls on ore mining could slow the expansion that previously pushed the market into surplus.

The Middle East conflict is adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy prices, inflation pressure and disrupted sulphur flows could affect nickel production costs, especially for high-pressure acid leach operations in Indonesia.

Indonesia Ore Controls Reshape Nickel Supply Growth

Indonesia’s approved nickel ore mining quota for 2026 has been set significantly lower than in 2025. The quota can still be revised, but the initial reduction has already changed market expectations.

The country’s revised mineral benchmark pricing mechanism also took effect on 15 April. The new HPM formula raises base prices for all nickel ore grades and includes cobalt, iron and chromium in the valuation for the first time.

This matters because Indonesian nickel supply is no longer expanding under the same low-cost conditions that drove rapid output growth. Ore access, ore pricing, royalties and contained metal values are all becoming more tightly managed.

The policy impact is not evenly distributed. Eramet’s PT Weda Bay Nickel mine is preparing to enter care and maintenance in May after receiving an initial ore quota of just 12mn wet metric tonnes. This is far below last year’s final permit of up to 42mn wmt.

In contrast, Nickel Industries received quota approvals of 14.3mn wmt, up from 10.5mn wmt in 2025. This shows that Indonesia’s controls are not simply cutting all supply. They are also reshaping which operators receive ore access.

The quota system could therefore become a major competitive factor. Producers with larger approved volumes may gain stronger operating flexibility, while others face lower utilisation, higher costs or temporary shutdowns.

HPAL producers are especially exposed. These plants require steady limonite ore supply and large volumes of sulphuric acid or sulphur-linked feedstock. Tighter ore availability and higher reagent costs can quickly pressure margins.

Disrupted sulphur flows from the Middle East conflict have raised concern over HPAL feedstock availability. This is important because Indonesian HPAL projects have become key suppliers of mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery material production.

If sulphur costs remain elevated and ore prices rise under the new HPM formula, HPAL production costs could increase materially. That would weaken the low-cost supply advantage that helped Indonesia dominate battery-linked nickel intermediates.

Stainless Steel Supports Demand as Batteries Disappoint

Stainless steel remains the main support for nickel demand. INSG said the stainless steel sector grew in 2025 and is expected to expand further in 2026.

This is important because stainless steel still consumes far more nickel than the battery sector. Demand from stainless steel, alloys and industrial uses continues to anchor the primary nickel market.

Battery demand has grown more slowly than earlier expectations. Lithium iron phosphate chemistries have gained market share, reducing nickel intensity in parts of the electric vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle demand has also outpaced fully battery-electric vehicle demand in some markets. This has limited the speed at which nickel-rich battery chemistries absorb new supply.

The result is a market caught between two forces. Supply growth is slowing because of Indonesian ore controls and higher input costs. However, battery demand is not rising fast enough to create a large structural shortage.

This makes the 2026 nickel deficit highly sensitive to policy and disruption. If Indonesia raises quotas, supply could recover. If sulphur, energy or ore costs worsen, the deficit could deepen.

The forecast also changes the market narrative. Nickel has spent recent years under pressure from surplus supply and rising inventories. A move into deficit, even a small one, could stabilise sentiment and support prices.

Still, the deficit is not yet a sign of broad scarcity. It is a warning that Indonesia’s supply discipline, not battery demand alone, is now determining the market balance.

For producers, cost control and ore access will become more important. For buyers, the focus will shift toward supplier reliability, feedstock route and exposure to Indonesian policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The nickel market is not tightening because batteries suddenly absorbed the surplus. It is tightening because Indonesia is putting discipline into ore supply while HPAL costs rise. That makes the nickel deficit more policy-driven than demand-driven.

Vulcan Lithium Hydroxide Project Advances as German Construction Begins

Vulcan Lithium

Vulcan lithium hydroxide project development has moved into major construction in Germany, marking a key step for Europe’s domestic battery materials supply chain. Australian-listed Vulcan Energy has started building its 24,000 t/yr Lionheart lithium hydroxide project in the German state of Hesse.

The Vulcan lithium hydroxide project is scheduled to produce first output in 2028. The construction start follows Vulcan’s receipt of a six-year commercial production licence for the facility in March.

The Vulcan lithium hydroxide project is strategically important because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported lithium chemicals for battery manufacturing. Local lithium hydroxide production could support electric vehicle, battery cell and cathode supply chains across the region.

Vulcan plans to produce battery-quality lithium from low-impurity geothermal subsurface brines. The company will use direct lithium extraction technology, linking lithium production with geothermal resource development in the Upper Rhine Valley.

Geothermal Brines Support Europe’s Local Lithium Strategy

The Lionheart project is part of Europe’s broader effort to build domestic critical minerals capacity. Lithium hydroxide is a key input for high-nickel cathode chemistries used in electric vehicle batteries.

Vulcan’s route is different from conventional hard-rock lithium mining or evaporation pond production. The company plans to extract lithium from geothermal brines, then process it into battery-quality lithium hydroxide.

This matters because direct lithium extraction can reduce land use and accelerate processing compared with traditional evaporation routes. However, DLE projects still face technical and commercial execution risk because each brine system has different chemistry and operating requirements.

Construction of the surface extraction plant at Landau in the Upper Rhine Valley began in February. This upstream extraction work is critical because the lithium hydroxide plant depends on reliable brine supply and stable lithium recovery.

The project’s low-impurity geothermal brine base could give Vulcan a useful advantage if it can scale the process reliably. Battery customers require consistent quality, traceability and long-term supply security.

Public Funding Highlights Strategic Battery Materials Push

The Lionheart project received around €104mn in funding from Germany’s federal government and the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse last year. This public support shows how lithium processing has become an industrial policy priority in Europe.

Germany has a major automotive industry and is expanding battery manufacturing capacity. Domestic lithium hydroxide production could reduce exposure to overseas conversion hubs and strengthen regional supply resilience.

The project also fits Europe’s push to localise more of the battery value chain. Mining or extraction alone is not enough. Europe needs lithium chemicals, cathode materials, battery cells, recycling and downstream qualification with automakers.

Vulcan’s 24,000 t/yr planned capacity would not satisfy Europe’s full lithium demand. However, it could become a meaningful regional source if production starts as planned in 2028.

The next challenge is execution. Vulcan must complete construction, prove DLE performance, operate the geothermal brine system and qualify lithium hydroxide with battery customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vulcan’s construction start shows that Europe’s battery supply-chain strategy is moving from policy ambition to industrial buildout. The project’s success will depend on whether geothermal brine extraction and lithium hydroxide conversion can scale reliably enough to meet automotive-grade standards.

SHFE Indonesian Nickel Cathode Brands Strengthen Indonesia’s Class I Nickel Role

The Shanghai Futures Exchange

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands have gained a major credibility boost after the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved two Indonesian-produced nickel cathode brands for delivery against SHFE contracts. The approvals cover PTENICO from Eternal Nickel Industry and DX zwdx from CNGR Dingxing New Energy.

The approvals mark an important step in Indonesia’s move from nickel ore and intermediate products toward exchange-deliverable Class I nickel. Indonesia has already become the world’s dominant nickel processing hub, but exchange approval gives its refined metal greater financial-market recognition.

SHFE Indonesian nickel cathode brands also reinforce the role of Chinese-backed industrial parks in building Indonesia’s downstream nickel value chain. Both approved producers are linked to major Chinese groups with strong positions in stainless steel or battery materials.

The development matters because exchange-deliverable nickel sits at the intersection of physical supply, futures market liquidity and industrial procurement. Approval by SHFE gives the brands wider acceptance among Chinese market participants and strengthens Indonesia’s role in Class I nickel trade.

Tsingshan and CNGR Extend Indonesia’s Refined Nickel Platform

Eternal Nickel Industry’s PTENICO brand was approved by SHFE after previously being listed on the London Metal Exchange on 16 December 2025. The company is a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group.

The plant is located in the Weda Bay Industrial Park in Halmahera, North Maluku. It uses an electrolytic process and has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

Tsingshan’s involvement is strategically important. The group transformed global nickel markets through Indonesian nickel pig iron and stainless steel expansion, and it is now extending that influence into refined Class I nickel.

CNGR Dingxing New Energy’s DX zwdx brand was also approved by SHFE. The plant is located at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and also uses an electrolytic process. It has 50,000 t/yr of nickel cathode capacity, with nickel content of 99.96%.

CNGR Dingxing is a subsidiary of CNGR, a major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material precursor producer. This gives the brand a direct connection to battery materials supply chains, not only stainless steel demand.

The LME accepted CNGR Dingxing’s Indonesian nickel cathode brand in May 2024. It also approved cobalt cathode produced by CNGR in Qinzhou, Guangxi, in March, showing the company’s expanding exchange-approved metals footprint.

Together, PTENICO and DX zwdx represent 100,000 t/yr of Indonesian nickel cathode capacity. Their SHFE approval gives Indonesia a stronger position in futures-linked refined nickel supply.

Exchange Approval Changes Nickel Market Positioning

The two brands are the first Indonesian-produced nickel cathodes approved by SHFE for delivery. That is significant because Indonesia’s nickel rise was initially built around ore, nickel pig iron, ferronickel, matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate.

Exchange-deliverable cathode is a different market category. It requires tighter quality control, brand recognition and acceptance by financial and physical market users.

SHFE has approved Chinese-produced nickel cathode brands totalling 121,000 t since 2024. Adding Indonesian brands expands the pool of deliverable material and shows how Indonesia is being integrated into China’s nickel pricing and delivery system.

This could gradually influence nickel market structure. More deliverable Indonesian metal may improve flexibility for Chinese buyers, increase acceptable supply for futures settlement and strengthen the link between Indonesian production and Chinese exchange pricing.

The approvals also come during a period of Class I nickel oversupply. LME and SHFE inventories have risen as new refined nickel capacity has entered the market faster than demand growth from batteries and alloys.

Against that backdrop, brand approval can become a competitive advantage. Producers with exchange-deliverable status may have better access to financing, trade channels and customers that require recognised specifications.

For Indonesia, the approval supports a broader industrial policy objective. The country wants to capture more value from its nickel resources by moving beyond raw ore and intermediate exports into higher-value metal and battery materials.

For China, the approvals deepen supply-chain integration with Indonesian assets. Chinese companies are not only investing in Indonesian mines and smelters; they are building exchange-recognised refined metal capacity that can serve Chinese industrial and financial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SHFE approval of Indonesian nickel cathode brands confirms that Indonesia is moving deeper into Class I nickel, not only bulk stainless and battery intermediates. The strategic issue now is whether this new exchange-deliverable capacity strengthens market liquidity or adds further pressure to an already oversupplied refined nickel market.

Argentina Lithium Production Push Strengthens Critical Minerals Growth Strategy

Daniel Gonzalez

Argentina lithium production is accelerating as the country seeks to become one of the world’s leading suppliers of battery materials. Vice-minister of energy and mining Daniel Gonzalez said Argentina is now the fastest-growing lithium producer and expects the country to become the largest soon.

The government has raised Argentina’s estimated lithium reserves to 23mn t of lithium carbonate equivalent. It has also increased its copper reserve estimate by 3mn t since last September, strengthening the country’s position across two key energy transition metals.

Argentina lithium production is being expanded by companies including Rio Tinto, Ganfeng, Lithium Argentina and Posco. At the same time, the country is working to develop four greenfield copper projects that could create a new large-scale copper industry.

Lithium Growth Positions Argentina as a Battery Materials Powerhouse

Argentina’s lithium growth reflects the strategic importance of its brine resources in the global battery supply chain. Demand from electric vehicles, energy storage and battery manufacturing continues to support long-term interest in secure lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide supply.

The country’s larger reserve estimate improves its investment case. It gives developers, battery manufacturers and downstream customers more confidence that Argentina can support long-term production growth.

However, reserve scale alone will not guarantee success. Argentina must convert projects into reliable production, build infrastructure, manage water and permitting risks, and maintain stable rules for foreign investors.

Copper Ambition Adds Depth to Argentina’s Mining Strategy

Argentina is also targeting major copper growth. Gonzalez said the country aims to produce 1.5mn-2mn t of copper over the next five to seven years, supported by four greenfield projects now under development.

This copper ambition is significant because copper is central to grids, electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles and industrial infrastructure. If Argentina can deliver new copper output, it could become a more important supplier to global energy transition supply chains.

The government is using tax incentives to attract investment. These include a lower income tax rate, no tariffs on imports, no export duties, and 30 years of regulatory and tax stability.

Still, investor confidence remains the key challenge. Argentina is trying to recover from years of policy volatility and economic mismanagement, while the cost of capital remains high. Lower financing costs will be essential if the country wants to move large lithium and copper projects from ambition to production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina has the mineral base to become a major lithium and copper supplier, but geology is only the starting point. The real test will be whether tax stability, investor trust and project execution can overcome the country’s long history of policy risk.

Battery Metal Demand Faces Pressure From Rising Consumer Electronics Prices

Consumer Electronic

Battery metal demand could face new pressure if rising consumer electronics prices slow replacement cycles for smartphones and other portable devices. Higher handset prices are already emerging in China, where major smartphone brands have lifted prices by 200-1,000 yuan per unit.

Battery metal demand remains closely tied to consumer electronics, especially for cobalt. Mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and other portable devices are a major downstream market, accounting for around 35pc of global cobalt consumption and about 3pc of lithium demand.

Battery metal demand has not yet shown an immediate spot-market reaction. However, the risk is becoming more visible as semiconductor supply chains face energy, helium, and logistics pressure linked to the Middle East conflict.

Smartphone Price Increases Threaten Replacement Demand

Consumer electronics demand is highly sensitive to price and upgrade cycles. If smartphone prices rise further, consumers may delay replacing older devices, reducing near-term battery demand from the electronics sector.

Major Chinese smartphone manufacturers including OPPO, vivo, and Honor have already raised prices. Some flagship models are now about 10pc more expensive, reflecting pressure from tighter memory-chip supply and higher input costs.

The main risk comes from the semiconductor supply chain. South Korea and Taiwan host some of the world’s most advanced chipmaking capacity, and both rely heavily on Middle East crude imports that transit the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could increase chip production costs and further lift electronics prices.

Cobalt and Lithium Markets Still Face Strong Supply-Side Offsets

Battery metal demand weakness from electronics may be partly offset by supply-side disruptions. The cobalt market remains under pressure after the Democratic Republic of Congo effectively paused exports following concerns over mismatched assay results for cobalt hydroxide.

This matters because the DRC is the world’s largest cobalt feedstock producer. Any delay in hydroxide exports can tighten supply to refiners and support prices, even if electronics demand softens.

Lithium markets are also watching Zimbabwe’s export ban. Market participants are assessing whether the restriction will offset slower buying and whether concentrate exports could resume soon.

The helium shortage adds another layer of risk. Qatar supplies about a third of global helium output, and disruption has pushed inventories at some memory-chip producers toward warning levels. Since helium is essential for semiconductor manufacturing, continued tightness could keep pressure on chip prices and consumer electronics costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Battery metal demand is now exposed to a new kind of risk: not only EV sales or energy storage growth, but also semiconductor-linked consumer inflation. If electronics demand weakens while cobalt and lithium supply disruptions persist, price direction will depend on which force moves faster.

Vulcan Energy German Lithium Licence Advances Lionheart Supply Plan

Vulcan Energy

Vulcan Energy German lithium licence approval strengthens the company’s plan to bring its Lionheart lithium hydroxide project in Germany into commercial production in 2028. The Australian developer has secured a six-year commercial production licence for its Insheim production area, a key part of the planned 24,000 t/yr lithium hydroxide project.

The licence supports Vulcan Energy’s integrated geothermal lithium model. At Insheim, the company extracts lithium-rich geothermal brine while generating renewable energy, linking battery materials production with low-carbon power generation.

The Vulcan Energy German lithium licence also improves project credibility at a critical stage. The company began construction at Lionheart in February 2026 and secured a mix of grant, equity, and debt funding in December 2025. Further production licences will still be needed as Vulcan expands the project footprint.

German Geothermal Lithium Gains Industrial Relevance

Germany’s battery supply chain needs domestic and regional lithium sources to reduce dependence on imported raw materials. Vulcan’s Lionheart project targets that gap by producing lithium hydroxide from geothermal brine in Europe’s largest automotive market.

The Insheim licence gives Vulcan a regulated path to commercial production in one of its core operating areas. The initial term runs for six years, but the company plans to apply for an extension of at least 30 years. That longer horizon matters because battery material customers need supply security beyond short contract cycles.

The Vulcan Energy German lithium licence also supports Europe’s broader industrial policy goals. Lithium hydroxide remains essential for high-nickel cathode chemistries used in electric vehicles. A domestic German source could help automakers and cathode producers reduce supply chain risk.

Offtake Commitments Support Lionheart Financing

Vulcan has already placed most of its initial Lionheart output under offtake arrangements. The company expects to sell 94-99pc of early production to four customers, including Glencore and Stellantis.

Glencore will receive around 20pc of Lionheart output over eight years. This commitment gives Vulcan a major commodity partner while providing Glencore with exposure to European lithium hydroxide supply.

The project still faces execution risk. Vulcan must secure additional licences, complete construction, prove commercial-scale brine processing, and deliver consistent battery-grade lithium hydroxide. However, permitting progress, customer commitments, and financing support make Lionheart one of Europe’s more advanced lithium supply projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vulcan’s progress matters because Europe needs lithium projects that are both local and commercially bankable. The licence does not remove technical risk, but it moves geothermal lithium closer to becoming a real part of Germany’s battery materials supply chain.

Nth Cycle Trafigura Battery Materials Deal Signals Scale-Up in Black Mass Refining

Nth Cycle

Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal marks a significant step for recycled battery metals supply as the US critical metals refiner prepares to expand its refining footprint. Nth Cycle has signed a 10-year binding offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with battery materials valued at $1.1bn.

The agreement covers 2,000 metric tonnes of contained nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate and 1,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate. These materials will be refined from 12,000 tonnes of black mass, reinforcing the growing commercial role of recycled feedstock in the battery supply chain.

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal also gives Trafigura long-term exposure to recycled nickel and lithium units. That matters as battery manufacturers, automakers, and trading houses seek lower-carbon and more traceable alternatives to mined raw materials.

Modular Refining Model Targets Faster Battery Materials Capacity

Nth Cycle plans to establish new operations in South Carolina and the Netherlands, with production scheduled to begin in 2028. The dual-location strategy gives the company access to both North American and European battery supply chains.

The company’s modular refinery system is designed to reduce build time and capital intensity. This model could become important because conventional refining projects often face long development timelines, high upfront costs, and permitting delays.

Black mass refining is becoming a strategic bridge between battery recycling and primary raw material supply. By converting battery waste into mixed hydroxide precipitate and lithium carbonate, refiners can return critical metals into the battery value chain with less dependence on new mining projects.

Trafigura Offtake Strengthens Commercial Validation

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal provides commercial validation for Nth Cycle’s refining technology and expansion plan. A 10-year offtake agreement with a major global trading house can support financing, customer confidence, and project execution.

Nth Cycle has also received a €7.5mn grant from the Netherlands’ National Growth Fund under the Critical Raw Materials Lion initiative. This support highlights Europe’s policy focus on domestic and regional critical raw materials capacity.

The agreement reflects a broader shift in battery materials markets. Recycled nickel and lithium are moving from pilot-scale sustainability claims toward bankable supply contracts. As a result, black mass is increasingly becoming an industrial feedstock rather than a waste stream.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows that battery recycling is entering a more serious commercial phase. The key challenge for Nth Cycle will be execution, because long-term offtake value only matters if modular refining can deliver consistent volume, quality, and cost performance.

Lithium Market Growth Could Reach 25pc in 2026 as Battery Storage Demand Surges

SQM BESS

Lithium market growth could reach 25pc in 2026 as stronger battery energy storage demand combines with steady electric vehicle consumption, according to Chilean producer SQM. The outlook suggests that the lithium market is entering a new demand phase led not only by EVs, but also by large-scale stationary storage.

SQM raised its 2026 production guidance to 260,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent, up from 230,000t in 2025. The company also expects sales to rise by 10pc this year, supported by strong Asia-Pacific demand and full-capacity operations at its Atacama assets.

Lithium market growth is also improving short-term pricing expectations. SQM expects first-quarter sales to rise by more than 15pc from the same period in 2025, which would set a record for January-March sales. The company also expects prices to be substantially higher than the $10/kg level recorded in the fourth quarter.

Battery Storage Demand Changes the Lithium Growth Model

Battery energy storage is becoming a stronger driver of lithium demand. This matters because Bess demand can grow independently of passenger EV cycles, especially as grids add more renewable power and require storage for stability.

SQM’s outlook shows that lithium producers are increasingly watching storage demand alongside EV sales. EV consumption remains steady, but storage growth can absorb additional lithium carbonate equivalent volumes and tighten the market faster than expected.

The company has already secured contracts covering 80pc of its 2026 LCE volumes. That leaves 20pc, or around 52,000t, available for spot market sales. This structure gives SQM exposure to higher prices if demand remains strong, while also protecting much of its volume through contract coverage.

SQM Output Expansion Strengthens Chile’s Lithium Position

SQM produced 233,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025, up 14pc from the previous year. A record fourth quarter drove the result, with NovaAndino Litio producing 66,000t LCE, up 52pc from the same period in 2024.

NovaAndino Litio is the new name of SQM’s Chilean lithium subsidiary following its merger with Codelco. The rebrand signals the growing importance of Chile’s state-linked lithium strategy and the central role of the Atacama operations in global supply.

SQM’s Australian operations also continued to progress. Its attributable production from the Mt. Holland extraction site reached 156,400t of lithium concentrate in 2025, while the Kwinana hydroxide refinery produced 1,600t LCE during its ramp-up phase. These assets give SQM a broader lithium platform across both brine and hard-rock supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SQM’s forecast shows that lithium demand is becoming more diversified and less dependent on EVs alone. If battery storage continues to outperform expectations, producers with flexible sales exposure and reliable capacity could regain pricing power faster than the market expected.

Altmin CBL Lithium Refinery Expansion Strengthens Brazil’s Battery Materials Ambition

Altmin

Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion marks an important step in Brazil lithium refining. Indian cathode producer Altmin will invest $40mn in Brazilian lithium company CBL to expand its Divisa Alegre refinery. The project will raise capacity to 6,000 t/yr from 2,000 t/yr. As a result, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion gives Brazil a stronger position in battery materials processing.

This investment matters because the product mix will change sharply toward battery use. Most of the current output is technical grade lithium carbonate. After the upgrade, 5,000 t/yr will be battery-grade lithium carbonate. Therefore, Brazil lithium refining is moving closer to higher-value chemical production.

The commercial structure is also significant. Altmin will receive a 33pc stake in CBL’s refinery through the investment. It also secured a 15-year offtake agreement for all battery-grade output from the upgraded plant. Consequently, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion links refining capacity directly to long-term cathode demand.

Brazil Lithium Refining Gains a Stronger Industrial Model

Brazil lithium refining gains more credibility because this is not a brand-new relationship. Altmin has been a client of CBL since 2019. The Indian firm already uses CBL lithium chemicals to produce lithium-ion battery cathodes. As a result, the expansion builds on an existing industrial partnership rather than a speculative deal.

The refinery will still keep a domestic role after the upgrade. Around 1,000 t/yr of output, including lithium hydroxide, will remain in Brazil. That material will continue serving pharmaceuticals, lubricants, ceramics, and glass. Therefore, the project supports both export-oriented battery supply and local industrial demand.

CBL also brings long operating history to the deal. Its refinery has been operating since 1991. That gives the company a more established refining base than many newer lithium projects. Meanwhile, the upgrade shows how older industrial assets can be repositioned for the battery economy.

Brazil Critical Minerals Processing Moves Further Up the Value Chain

Brazil critical minerals processing is the wider story behind this investment. CBL’s core business remains spodumene extraction at 50,000 t/yr, with an expansion under way to 115,000 t/yr. That means the company is strengthening both upstream mining and downstream refining. As a result, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion supports a more complete lithium value chain.

This matters for Brazil’s national industrial ambition. The country wants to become more than a raw materials exporter. It wants more local processing, more chemical upgrading, and stronger downstream industry. Therefore, Brazil lithium refining is becoming a strategic policy goal as much as a mining opportunity.

The deal also shows that foreign partners are willing to support that direction when supply and refining can be linked clearly. Altmin gets secure battery-grade lithium carbonate. Brazil gains more refining scale and a stronger role in global battery materials. Consequently, Brazil critical minerals processing is becoming more investable and more commercially relevant.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it moves Brazil closer to real battery chemicals production, not just spodumene supply. The most important point is not the $40mn alone. It is that Brazil is starting to attract capital tied to long-term downstream offtake, which is exactly how a stronger lithium value chain gets built.

Elevra Mangrove Lithium Offtake Could Strengthen Eastern Canada’s Battery Supply Chain

Elevra Lithium

Elevra Mangrove lithium offtake could become an important building block in Canada’s battery materials chain. Elevra has agreed to supply Mangrove Lithium with up to 144,000 t/yr of spodumene concentrate. The material would come from Elevra’s North American Lithium operation in Quebec. As a result, Elevra Mangrove lithium offtake points to a more integrated regional lithium model.

This deal matters because it links upstream mining with planned downstream conversion in eastern Canada. Mangrove intends to process the concentrate into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or carbonate. That would keep more value inside North America instead of exporting raw material only. Therefore, Elevra Mangrove lithium offtake supports the broader push for localized battery supply chains.

The commercial structure also deserves attention. Pricing will follow a market marker with both a floor and a ceiling. That approach can reduce downside risk while also limiting extreme upside exposure. Consequently, the deal structure appears designed for stability rather than pure spot-market volatility.

Quebec Spodumene Supply Gains a New Domestic Processing Route

Quebec spodumene supply is becoming more strategically important as downstream conversion capacity develops nearby. Elevra plans to begin supplying Mangrove in 2028 and ramp up deliveries to 144,000 t/yr by 2030. That timeline gives both companies room to align mine output with conversion buildout. As a result, Quebec spodumene supply could gain a stronger domestic destination.

The agreement is still conditional, which is important. The parties may sign a binding deal later, but only if Mangrove commits before June 2027 to build its conversion facility. That means project execution remains the real next test. Meanwhile, the announcement still signals serious intent from both sides.

Eastern Canada Lithium Conversion Could Broaden Elevra’s Offtake Portfolio

Eastern Canada lithium conversion could give Elevra a more diversified commercial base. The company already has offtake agreements with LG Chem and Tesla. Those contracts use different pricing formulas linked to spodumene and lithium hydroxide. Therefore, Elevra Mangrove lithium offtake would add another channel with a more regional conversion focus.

For Mangrove, the agreement is equally strategic. Securing future spodumene supply is essential if the company wants to build a viable conversion business. Without feedstock certainty, downstream lithium projects often struggle to gain credibility. Consequently, this proposed deal helps strengthen the case for an eastern Canada lithium conversion platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement matters because it connects mine output with regional chemical conversion, which is where North America still needs more depth. The bigger issue now is not whether the idea makes sense. It is whether Mangrove can commit to the plant and turn this framework into a binding supply chain.

Critical Mineral Stockpiles Need an Oil-Style Security Framework

IEA map

Critical mineral stockpiles are moving closer to the center of industrial security policy. The IEA says governments should apply an oil-style security framework to critical minerals. The goal is to reduce exposure to supply disruptions caused by wars, trade controls, and geopolitical shocks. As a result, critical mineral stockpiles are becoming a more urgent policy priority.

The comparison with oil is important. After the 1973 oil crisis, IEA members built coordinated emergency stock systems. That framework helped countries respond to severe supply shocks over decades. Therefore, the IEA now argues that strategic mineral reserves should serve a similar role in critical materials.

However, critical minerals are more complex than oil. These materials vary widely in physical form, storage requirements, market size, and end-use exposure. That means governments cannot simply copy the oil model without major adaptation. Consequently, critical mineral stockpiles will need more tailored design and coordination.

Critical Mineral Stockpiles Must Match Real Industrial Use

Critical mineral stockpiles will only work if countries store the right materials in usable forms. The IEA says governments should hold the forms actually consumed by industry in their regions. That means stockpiling oxides, magnets, salts, or refined products rather than only raw ores. As a result, stockpile design becomes an industrial strategy issue, not just a reserve policy issue.

The most urgent materials are already becoming clear. Rare earths, gallium, germanium, graphite, tungsten, and manganese sit near the top of the risk list. Many of these materials already face export controls or high supply concentration. Therefore, stockpiling policy is increasingly tied to real trade vulnerability.

The IEA also warns against focusing only on today’s restricted materials. Governments should prepare for future disruptions in markets with high volatility or fragile new supply. Lithium, vanadium, cobalt, and rare earths all fit that profile. Consequently, critical mineral stockpiles must look forward, not only backward.

Storage Costs and Governance Will Decide Whether the Model Works

Storage complexity is one of the biggest differences between oil and minerals. Lithium hydroxide degrades quickly in air and reacts badly to humidity. Gallium needs temperature control because of its low melting point. Therefore, stockpiling policy must account for chemistry, warehousing, and shelf life.

Costs also vary sharply by material. Minor metals such as gallium and germanium require relatively small tonnages. That makes stockholding more affordable in absolute terms. However, bulkier materials such as lithium hydroxide, synthetic graphite, and nickel sulphate become much more expensive to store at scale. As a result, stockpile strategy must balance urgency with economic practicality.

Governance may matter even more than storage. The IEA supports a public-private hybrid system with international cooperation. Countries should coordinate purchasing, release principles, and emergency deployment to avoid market distortion. Meanwhile, they can support diversification, aggregate demand, and reserve capacity for crises.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA is right to frame critical mineral stockpiles as a security issue, not just a trade issue. But the real challenge will be execution. Oil can be stored in barrels, while critical minerals require far more selective, technical, and coordinated stock strategies.

Liontown Lithium Sales Jump as Kathleen Valley Ramp-Up Gains Momentum

Liontown

Liontown lithium sales rose strongly in the fourth quarter of 2025 as Kathleen Valley continued its ramp-up. The company sold 112,000 dry metric tonnes of lithium concentrate during the quarter. That was 38pc higher than a year earlier. As a result, Liontown lithium sales now show stronger operating momentum from one of Australia’s most watched new lithium mines.

The performance matters because Kathleen Valley is still in a scale-up phase. Liontown is mining both open pit and underground ore at the operation. That gives the company more flexibility as it lifts production. Therefore, Liontown lithium sales are becoming a clearer indicator of how well the mine is moving toward steadier commercial output.

Pricing also remained supportive during the quarter. Liontown sold six parcels at an average realized price of $900 per dry metric tonne on a 6pc Li2O basis. Meanwhile, its all-in sustaining cost stood at $695 per dry metric tonne. Consequently, the gap between selling price and cost suggests improving commercial quality as volumes rise.

Kathleen Valley Lithium Mine Is Moving From Commissioning to Commercial Scale

The Kathleen Valley lithium mine is now shifting from early ramp-up toward more meaningful market participation. Liontown said it continues to increase production, which supports the stronger quarterly sales result. That matters because volume growth is often the hardest stage for new hard-rock lithium projects. However, Kathleen Valley now appears to be moving through that phase with growing confidence.

Product quality remains another key factor. The company sold concentrate at an average grade of 5.1pc lithium oxide during the quarter. While that sits below the 6pc reference basis used for pricing, it still shows the mine is delivering saleable material at rising volumes. Therefore, the Kathleen Valley lithium mine is strengthening both operational credibility and commercial visibility.

The company’s pricing strategy also adds flexibility. Liontown uses a mix of spodumene, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide indexes with different quotation periods. That approach can help it respond to changing market conditions. As a result, Liontown lithium sales are not tied to a single pricing formula in a volatile market.

Spodumene Auction Pricing Adds a High-Value Option to Liontown’s Sales Mix

Spodumene auction pricing is becoming one of the most interesting parts of Liontown’s strategy. The company plans to retain 10-20pc of production for auction. It sold 10,000 dry metric tonnes in its first auction in November at $1,254 per dry metric tonne. That result was well above the quarter’s average realized price.

This matters because auctions can capture faster price movements than longer-term formula contracts. Liontown also said spodumene prices rose faster than lithium chemical prices during the quarter. That created an opportunity to extract more value from spot-facing sales. Consequently, spodumene auction pricing could become an important earnings lever as production expands.

The customer base also strengthens the company’s market position. Liontown has offtake agreements with LG Energy Solution, Chengxin, Tesla, and Ford. Meanwhile, LG Energy Solution now owns 8pc of the company after converting its convertible note into equity. Therefore, Liontown enters the next phase of ramp-up with both industrial backing and diversified commercial relationships.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Liontown is no longer just a development story. It is becoming a live test of how new spodumene producers balance contracted sales with auction upside. If Kathleen Valley keeps ramping smoothly, Liontown could become one of the more commercially agile lithium names in the market.

AMG Lithium Processing Strategy Targets a Fully Western Supply Chain

AMG Critical Materials (lithium)

AMG lithium processing strategy is moving toward a more fully Western supply chain. The company is exploring new lithium processing investments in both Brazil and Portugal. Its goal is to reduce dependence on China in the spodumene midstream. As a result, AMG lithium processing strategy now centers on regional integration and logistics control.

This matters because AMG already operates one of the few Western lithium refining platforms. The company runs a lithium hydroxide refinery in Germany using spodumene from Brazil. However, the concentrate still needs processing in China before final refining in Europe. Therefore, AMG lithium processing strategy is aimed at removing one of the biggest inefficiencies in its current chain.

The commercial logic is straightforward. Processing closer to extraction sites would cut transport complexity and reduce costs. It would also improve supply visibility for European refining operations. Consequently, the company is trying to build a more resilient and politically aligned lithium system.

Lithium Processing in Brazil Could Deepen Upstream Integration

Lithium processing in Brazil could become the first major pillar of this strategy. AMG is already the second-largest spodumene producer in the country. That gives it a strong upstream position from which to expand into midstream conversion. Therefore, Brazil offers both feedstock security and industrial logic.

Brazil’s policy environment also supports that direction. Authorities have repeatedly encouraged more value-added critical minerals processing inside the country. That policy push aligns with AMG’s stated aim of building an integrated upstream chain in phases. As a result, lithium processing in Brazil could fit both national strategy and company economics.

The country also offers broader structural advantages. Brazil combines legal stability, resource strength, and growing industrial interest in critical minerals. Those conditions make it an attractive location for longer-term investment. Meanwhile, local processing would reduce the need for back-and-forth shipments through China.

Lithium Processing in Portugal Could Strengthen Europe’s Refining Base

Lithium processing in Portugal offers a different but equally strategic advantage. Portugal sits much closer to AMG’s German refinery, which could simplify logistics and shorten transport routes. That would help reduce cost and improve coordination across the European chain. Consequently, lithium processing in Portugal could become a natural extension of AMG’s existing refining base.

The Barroso project adds further importance to that option. AMG is the top shareholder in Savannah Resources, which is developing what is expected to be Europe’s largest lithium mine. Barroso is scheduled to come online in 2028. Therefore, Portugal could eventually provide both local mine supply and closer midstream support for Europe.

AMG has not yet decided the timing, sequencing, or capacity of any new plants. A midstream project could emerge first in Europe or in Brazil. That uncertainty keeps the strategy flexible, but it also shows the company is still in evaluation mode. Meanwhile, its German refinery is expected to complete ramp-up to 20,000 t/yr by the end of this year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG is addressing one of the biggest weaknesses in the Western lithium chain: the missing midstream. Mining and refining alone do not create supply security if China still dominates the upgrade step. If AMG executes well in Brazil or Portugal, it could become one of the more credible builders of a truly Western lithium supply route.

Elevra Lithium Production Guidance Cut Signals Short-Term Pressure at North American Lithium

Elevra

Elevra lithium production guidance now points to a softer short-term operating outlook. The company lowered its forecast for spodumene concentrate production and sales for the fiscal year ending 30 June. It now expects production of 180,000-190,000 dry metric tonnes, below its earlier range. As a result, Elevra lithium production guidance reflects mining optimization challenges rather than a change in long-term strategy.

The revision matters because the North American Lithium mine remains a key hard-rock lithium asset in Quebec. Elevra also holds broader lithium exposure in the US, Australia, and Ghana. However, current performance at its main operating site is now the market’s main focus. Therefore, Elevra lithium production guidance will shape near-term confidence in its broader growth story.

Lower Lithium Recovery Rates Are Driving the Guidance Reset

Lower lithium recovery rates are the clearest reason behind the downgrade. Recovery in the December quarter fell to 62pc, down seven percentage points from the previous quarter. The company linked this decline to lower ore grades and higher iron content. Consequently, plant performance weakened even as market prices improved.

The company said the downgrade is temporary and tied to ongoing operating adjustments. It is using increased grade-control drilling and ore blending to improve mine performance. Those steps should help stabilize feed quality over time. However, until those benefits appear, production and sales will remain under pressure.

Cost guidance also moved in the wrong direction. Unit operating costs increased to $860-880 per dry metric tonne from the prior outlook of $765-830. Lower sales volumes drove much of that increase. As a result, weaker production is now affecting both output and margin performance.

Rising Spodumene Prices Offer Partial Support to Elevra

Rising spodumene prices are providing some relief despite weaker operating performance. In the December quarter, Elevra sold 66,016 dry metric tonnes in line with guidance. Its realized selling price rose by 27pc from the previous quarter to $998 per dry metric tonne fob. Therefore, stronger market pricing is helping offset part of the operating setback.

This pricing support matters because Elevra has important commercial relationships in place. The company holds multi-year offtake agreements with Tesla and LG Chem. Its pricing also references international market levels and a forward sales structure linked to lithium hydroxide futures. Meanwhile, frequent contango in that futures market can support better commercial positioning.

The broader message is mixed rather than negative. Elevated spot prices show demand support remains present in the lithium chain. However, pricing alone cannot solve mine performance issues. Therefore, the real test for Elevra lithium production guidance will be whether operational improvements restore recovery and volume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This downgrade is important because it highlights a familiar hard-rock lithium problem. Good pricing can support revenue, but recovery and ore quality still determine real performance. If Elevra improves blending and grade control, this may look like a temporary setback rather than a structural weakness.

Finland lithium refinery ramp-up: SBSW moves Keliber into staged start-up

Sibanye-Stillwater

The Finland lithium refinery ramp-up is moving into its final construction phase at Sibanye-Stillwater’s Keliber project. SBSW expects to finish the build in the first quarter and then start a staged ramp-up. The company will align the Finland lithium refinery ramp-up with mining, concentrator, and refinery readiness.

Capital spending remains heavy, with €783mn required to complete construction. SBSW plans 15,000t per year of battery-grade lithium hydroxide for about 18 years. That output supports European battery supply chains and reduces exposure to imported chemicals.

Keliber’s integrated mine-to-refinery build in Finland

Keliber brings an integrated footprint that links deposits, a concentrator, and a refinery in Finland. The project includes seven spodumene exploration or mining properties, plus processing assets. Central Ostrobothnia provides the spodumene feedstock for the refinery circuit.

A staged start reduces technical risk, but it can stretch timelines if commissioning surprises appear. Therefore, investors will track early recoveries, reagent use, and lithium hydroxide quality. Operators often tune crushing, flotation, and conversion steps before they reach nameplate performance.

EU strategic status and price-linked ramp decisions

EU strategic status adds policy support for the Finland lithium refinery ramp-up. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act classifies Keliber as a strategic project. Meanwhile, strategic labels can speed permitting, financing access, and downstream partnership talks.

Lithium prices will shape how fast SBSW funds refinery ramp-up costs. The company plans to defer some ramp spending when market pricing weakens. As a result, the project can preserve cash while keeping long-term capacity optionality.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Keliber can become a benchmark EU lithium hydroxide asset if it executes the ramp cleanly. However, deferring ramp costs creates a trade-off between balance-sheet discipline and market-share timing. The winners will secure offtakes before the next European battery expansion wave.