Derichebourg Recycling Results Rise on Non-Ferrous Strength and Scrap Policy Support

Chhattisgarh, Ferro‑alloy

Derichebourg recycling results improved in the first half of the company’s 2025-26 financial year as stronger non-ferrous demand, higher prices and increased metal volumes lifted earnings. The French recycling group reported Ebitda of €177.8mn for October-March, up almost 10% from a year earlier.

Derichebourg recycling results show how metal recyclers are benefiting from two linked forces. Non-ferrous scrap demand remains firm, while European steel policy is encouraging mills to source more feedstock from within the region.

Derichebourg recycling results also point to continued momentum in the second half. The company expects April-September performance to be comparable to the first half and forecasts full-year Ebitda of €350mn-370mn.

The market responded positively to the filing, with Derichebourg’s share price rising above €10 from €9.50 after the results were released.

Non-Ferrous Metals Drive Earnings Growth

Non-ferrous metals were the main earnings driver. Derichebourg sold 357,100t of non-ferrous metals in the first half, up 4.4% from a year earlier.

Revenue from the non-ferrous segment rose by nearly 20% to €1bn. The average non-ferrous price was almost 15% higher than in the same period last year.

Copper sales were especially strong, rising by 17%. Aluminium sales, excluding ingots, increased by 10%, supported by firm industrial demand.

However, the picture was not uniformly positive. Aluminium ingot sales fell by 15%, while lead sales dropped by 4%, mainly because of weaker demand from the automotive industry.

This split matters for recyclers. Copper and aluminium scrap remain exposed to electrification, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing, while automotive weakness can still pressure selected downstream products.

Derichebourg’s non-ferrous performance shows that scrap is becoming a strategic raw material, not only a waste recovery business. Buyers increasingly need reliable recycled metal flows for cost control, carbon reduction and supply security.

CBAM and Steel Quotas Support Ferrous Scrap Outlook

Ferrous scrap revenue fell by 5% to €649.9mn because lower average prices offset higher volumes. Derichebourg sold 2.13mn t of ferrous scrap, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

European mills increased scrap purchases ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism coming into force in January. CBAM has added complexity to imported steel and raw material calculations, pushing some steelmakers toward European suppliers.

The company also expects ferrous scrap demand to strengthen after the EU introduces new steel quotas and customs duties in July. These measures could support regional scrap flows by making local feedstock more attractive.

Turkey also contributed to stronger scrap demand as steel production increased. That remains important because Turkish mills are major seaborne scrap buyers and can influence European collection and export markets.

Derichebourg is also expanding geographically. The company agreed to acquire Germany’s Scholz Recycling, which operates 180 sites including joint ventures across Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Austria and Romania.

The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026. It will strengthen Derichebourg’s recycling network in eastern Europe, where its presence has been smaller.

The acquisition fits the wider market direction. European recyclers are scaling up as policy, carbon rules and industrial demand make scrap supply more valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Derichebourg’s results show that recycling is becoming a policy-supported industrial supply chain. CBAM, steel trade measures and non-ferrous demand are turning scrap networks into strategic assets for European metals security.

Energy Security Investment Rises as IEA Sees $3.4 Trillion Global Spend

IEA

Energy security investment is accelerating as the war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz push governments and companies to diversify supply. The IEA expects global energy investment to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026.

Energy security investment is now shifting strongly toward electricity, grids, storage, renewables, nuclear, low-emissions fuels and efficiency. The IEA expects around $2.2 trillion to flow into these areas, compared with about $1.2 trillion for fossil fuels.

Energy security investment also carries direct metals implications. More spending on grids, storage, solar, wind, nuclear and electrification will support demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical materials.

The IEA described the current crisis as the largest energy security crisis the world has faced. It expects decision-makers to prioritise resilience, diversification and trusted energy partners.

Electricity Spending Becomes the Core Security Response

Electricity-related investment is becoming the dominant theme in global energy spending. The IEA expects investment in electricity supply and infrastructure to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026.

That figure rises to about $2 trillion when end-use electrification is included. This shows that energy security is no longer only about oil and gas supply. It is increasingly about reliable power systems.

Power grids will be central to this shift. Grid expansion, storage deployment and electrification require large volumes of copper, aluminium and electrical equipment.

Renewables will also remain a major investment channel. The IEA expects renewables spending to reach around $665bn in 2026, including $365bn for solar, $200bn for wind and $75bn for hydropower.

Annual renewables spending growth has moderated because of lower technology costs and policy changes in China and the US. However, low-emissions sources still account for more than 70% of global power investment.

The metals signal is clear. Energy security policy is reinforcing the same material demand base already supported by decarbonisation. Grid metals, battery materials and renewable energy inputs remain structurally important.

Fuel Supply Shock Keeps Fossil Investment Alive

Fossil fuel investment is also rising in selected areas. Total fossil fuel supply investment is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, returning to 2024 levels.

Oil investment is expected to fall for a third consecutive year to below $500bn. Long project lead times, supply-chain limits, offshore rig tightness and uncertainty over the duration of the price spike are limiting near-term spending outside the Middle East.

Natural gas investment is moving in the opposite direction. The IEA expects gas investment to reach $330bn, the highest level in a decade, supported by LNG export projects and demand from data centres.

Coal investment is also expected to rise to $180bn, the highest level since 2012. Around 70% of that spending is expected in China, while some Asian countries may keep existing coal-fired power plants running longer to protect energy security.

The IEA said past investments in renewables, nuclear, efficiency and electrification have already improved energy security in major fuel-importing regions. It estimated that China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia and India avoided around $260bn in fossil fuel imports in 2025.

The conflict is also forcing a search for new energy export routes to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Repair costs for damaged energy infrastructure are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars.

For industrial markets, the result is a more complex energy outlook. Electricity investment is rising fast, but gas and coal remain part of short-term security planning. That mix will shape metals demand, energy costs and industrial competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s outlook shows that energy security and electrification are now the same investment story. The winners will be supply chains that can deliver grids, storage, renewables and critical minerals at scale while reducing exposure to fragile fuel routes.

European Ferro-Molybdenum Prices Hit Three-Year High on Concentrate Squeeze

Ferro-Molybdenum

European ferro-molybdenum prices have climbed to a three-year high as tight molybdenum concentrate supply, stronger Chinese steel demand and logistical constraints push the market higher. The rally has lifted prices sharply since the start of the year.

European ferro-molybdenum prices were last assessed at $70.90-71.50/kg in-warehouse Rotterdam on 19 May, up by about 25% from the start of the year. Molybdenum oxide prices also rose to $30.50-30.80/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up by 28% over the same period.

European ferro-molybdenum prices are being driven mainly by raw material tightness rather than a broad recovery in European steel demand. Molybdenum concentrate availability has tightened structurally, limiting oxide and ferro-molybdenum production flexibility.

The key problem is that molybdenum is mostly produced as a by-product of copper mining. That means supply cannot quickly respond to higher prices, leaving the market exposed when concentrate availability tightens or downstream demand rises.

Concentrate Tightness Drives the Molybdenum Chain Higher

Molybdenum concentrate is the starting point for the supply chain. It is converted into molybdenum oxide, which then feeds ferro-molybdenum production for alloy steel and stainless steel applications.

Concentrate prices in China have risen by about 29% since January, peaking at 5,235 yuan/mtu on 13 May. That cost increase has moved through the value chain and supported higher oxide and ferro-molybdenum prices.

Chinese steel demand has intensified the squeeze. Mills purchased around 30,000t of ferro-molybdenum in March-April, up 10% from a year earlier.

This buying absorbed much of China’s available spot concentrate and oxide supply. As a result, less material has been available for export to other consuming regions.

Market participants initially expected demand to slow after pre-holiday buying ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday. Instead, sustained steel mill demand kept buyers active and tightened availability further.

The Centerra Gold Langeloth outage in the US also supported the rally. An explosion near the facility’s acid unit on 29 January led to a suspension of operations, removing an important source of molybdenum oxide and ferro-molybdenum from the prompt market.

The facility’s direct global supply share is limited. However, its outage tightened nearby availability and strengthened bullish sentiment, allowing traders and producers to raise offers more aggressively.

Supply Constraints Outweigh European Demand Recovery

The current rally is largely supply-led. European steel demand has not recovered strongly enough to explain the scale of the price increase on its own.

Logistical constraints have made the situation worse. Financing, freight and inventory bottlenecks have reduced spot availability among trading firms.

Some sellers have also withheld material in expectation of further price gains. At the same time, buyers have resisted higher offers, reducing spot liquidity and creating sharper price movements.

Truckload enquiries have remained limited in recent weeks. This suggests that physical tightness and cautious seller behaviour are driving prices more than a surge in end-user consumption.

For alloy producers and steelmakers, the rally raises cost pressure. Ferro-molybdenum is used to improve strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance in steels used across energy, chemicals, engineering, defence and industrial equipment.

The market’s vulnerability reflects molybdenum’s by-product nature. Even if prices rise sharply, copper mines cannot quickly increase molybdenum output just to meet alloy demand.

That makes the molybdenum chain highly sensitive to disruptions. Concentrate shortages, converter outages, Chinese buying and trading bottlenecks can all create price moves that exceed the underlying change in steel consumption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The molybdenum rally shows how by-product metals can move violently when small supply disruptions meet concentrated demand. European buyers are not facing a simple steel-demand story; they are facing a raw material chain where concentrate availability now controls ferro-alloy pricing.

Sinomine Lithium and Copper Expansion Targets Zimbabwe and Zambia Growth

Sinomine Resources

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion is accelerating as the Chinese miner prepares to raise up to 5.2bn yuan to fund new battery metals, copper and specialty metals projects. The targeted share placement will support projects in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Jiangxi province.

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion reflects the company’s move from a lithium-focused growth story into a broader multi-metal platform. The company entered lithium through the Bikita mine in Zimbabwe in 2021 and added copper exposure through its 65% stake in Zambia’s Kitumba project in 2024.

Sinomine lithium and copper expansion also shows how Chinese mining companies are securing upstream resources while building processing capacity closer to mine sites. That strategy is becoming more important as resource-rich countries push for more domestic value addition.

The fundraising plan will support a 100,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant in Zimbabwe, the Kitumba copper project in Zambia, and a 2,000 t/yr caesium and rubidium products project in Jiangxi.

Kitumba Copper Project Strengthens Sinomine’s Diversification

The Kitumba copper project is central to Sinomine’s move into copper. Development is advancing through equipment procurement, civil works and installation, with trial concentrator production targeted by the third quarter of 2026.

Full concentrator commissioning is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Smelter trial production is also targeted for the fourth quarter, with full operations expected from the first quarter of 2027.

Kitumba’s mining and processing design capacity remains 3.5mn t/yr of ore. However, smelting design capacity has been revised down to 35,000 t/yr of copper cathode from the previous 60,000 t/yr.

At full capacity, the project is expected to average 33,000 t/yr of copper cathode and 55,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. This gives Sinomine exposure to both refined copper and concentrate flows.

The project matters because copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electric vehicles, data centres, renewable energy and industrial electrification. Chinese miners are therefore looking beyond lithium to secure copper assets that can support long-term energy transition demand.

Zambia also gives Sinomine a strategic position in the African copper belt. The region remains one of the most important sources of copper growth, but project execution will depend on infrastructure, power, permitting and smelting economics.

Zimbabwe Lithium Sulphate Plan Moves Processing Downstream

Sinomine’s Bikita lithium operations in Zimbabwe have already ramped up after commissioning 2mn t/yr and 1.2mn t/yr expansion projects in July 2023. The projects reached designed capacity and product specifications by November 2023.

Lithium concentrate shipments to China have continued, but Zimbabwe’s policy environment is pushing Chinese lithium firms to process more material locally. The country imposed a ban on concentrate exports in February, accelerating interest in lithium sulphate production.

Sinomine’s planned 100,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant fits that shift. Details on construction timing and commissioning have not yet been disclosed, but the strategic direction is clear.

Lithium sulphate gives producers a way to move further downstream before exporting material to China or other battery chemical markets. It also helps satisfy local value-addition requirements while preserving access to Zimbabwe’s lithium resource base.

Other Chinese battery materials companies are moving in the same direction. Huayou Cobalt shipped its first lithium sulphate cargo from Zimbabwe to China on 25 April, showing that the processing route is already becoming commercially active.

Sinomine’s specialty metals platform adds another layer. The company is a leading producer of caesium and rubidium salts, with integrated mining, processing and advanced materials capabilities.

The planned 2,000 t/yr caesium and rubidium products project in Jiangxi supports higher-value specialty materials growth. These metals serve specialised industrial, electronic and advanced technology applications.

Sinomine’s latest fundraising plan therefore points to a more integrated strategy. The company is securing lithium, adding copper, and expanding specialty metals processing while responding to changing export rules and downstream demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinomine’s strategy shows how Chinese miners are adapting to a world where resource ownership alone is no longer enough. The next advantage will come from controlling mine supply, local processing and downstream product routes across lithium, copper and specialty metals.

Terrafame Scandium Recovery Study Could Create Europe’s First Domestic Supply

Terrafame

Terrafame scandium recovery plans could give Europe its only domestic scandium production source if a new project at the company’s Sotkamo operations in eastern Finland advances. The Finnish metals producer has launched a pre-feasibility study to assess scandium recovery from existing nickel and zinc production streams.

Terrafame scandium recovery would use the company’s current hydrometallurgical circuits, rather than requiring a standalone scandium mine. That gives the project a potentially lower-risk route because Terrafame already processes polymetallic ore and recovers multiple valuable metals.

Terrafame scandium recovery is strategically important because scandium supply remains extremely limited and heavily concentrated in China. Beijing controls around 85% of global supply and tightened export controls on the metal last year.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the project moves forward, Terrafame could target production in 2029.

Existing Circuits Could Lower Development Risk

Terrafame already produces battery-grade nickel, cobalt and copper. It also recovers uranium as a by-product from the same polymetallic ore system.

Adding scandium recovery to existing process streams could improve the value of Terrafame’s hydrometallurgical platform. It would also show how critical minerals can be extracted from established operations without developing entirely new mines.

This matters because scandium is usually produced in very small volumes as a by-product. Reliable recovery depends on chemistry, process control, impurity management and market qualification.

If successful, Terrafame could become a strategic supplier to European customers seeking non-China scandium. That would support supply-chain resilience for aerospace, aluminium alloys, solid oxide fuel cells and advanced materials.

The project also fits Europe’s wider critical raw materials agenda. The EU needs more domestic and allied sources of small-volume metals that support high-value industrial applications.

China Dominance Keeps Scandium Strategically Sensitive

Global scandium production remains limited at around 40-45 t/yr, while consumption reached about 60t in 2025. That small market size makes the supply chain highly sensitive to export controls and project delays.

China’s dominant position has increased interest in alternative sources. Export restrictions have made scandium more relevant to buyers that need secure material for advanced alloy and energy applications.

Several projects globally could increase supply over the next decade, including developments by NioCorp, Rio Tinto and Sunrise. Combined, these projects could lift global supply to 150-250 t/yr if they reach production.

That potential increase has raised some oversupply concerns. However, scandium demand may grow once buyers have more confidence in long-term availability.

This is a common problem for small critical materials markets. Customers hesitate to design around a material if supply is scarce, but producers struggle to invest before demand is proven.

Terrafame’s project could help break part of that cycle in Europe. A Finnish scandium source would not transform the market alone, but it could give manufacturers a more secure regional option.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Terrafame’s scandium study shows how Europe can extract more critical value from existing polymetallic operations. The opportunity is not only new mining, but smarter recovery of strategic by-products already moving through industrial circuits.

Asian Investor Climate Policy Advocacy Rises as Transition Finance Needs Clearer Rules

AIGCC

Asian investor climate policy advocacy is accelerating as more asset owners and managers push governments for clearer frameworks to support climate investment. The Asia Investor Group on Climate Change said investors across the region are moving beyond broad net zero pledges toward more direct engagement on policy.

Asian investor climate policy advocacy is becoming more important because Asia’s energy transition depends heavily on regulation, project approvals and national transition roadmaps. Markets across the region differ widely in policy maturity, carbon rules, disclosure standards and grid planning.

Asian investor climate policy advocacy now extends beyond emissions targets. Investors are calling for stronger sector transition plans, technology support, physical climate risk frameworks, nature-related disclosures and just transition policies.

The shift matters for metals and industrial supply chains. More investible climate policy can unlock capital for energy storage, renewable power, transmission, low-carbon transport and green infrastructure, all of which require large volumes of copper, aluminium, battery materials, electrical steel and critical minerals.

Energy Storage and Grid Investment Draw More Capital

Energy storage has become one of the clearest winners from stronger climate policy interest. The share of surveyed investors interested in energy storage doubled to 82% in 2025 from 40% in 2023.

This is an important signal for battery metals. Storage growth can support demand for lithium, iron phosphate, graphite, copper, aluminium and power electronics materials, even when electric vehicle growth becomes uneven.

Renewable power generation and transmission are also attracting investor attention. These sectors require long-term policy certainty because projects depend on grid access, permitting, tariff structures and reliable revenue models.

Green infrastructure, low-carbon transport and nature-based solutions are also gaining interest. But capital will move fastest where governments provide clear investment rules, predictable transition pathways and credible national targets.

The report shows that investors are becoming more practical. They are no longer only setting portfolio-level climate targets. They are asking governments to create the conditions needed for real projects to be financed.

Transition Plans Remain the Missing Link

Investor climate commitments are rising, but implementation remains uneven. The share of investors with net zero portfolio pledges increased to 45% in 2025 from 40% in 2024, while 33% have set interim targets.

However, only 22% of investors published a climate transition plan in 2025, unchanged from the previous year. This gap matters because transition plans connect targets with capital allocation, engagement priorities and risk management.

Just transition strategies are even less developed. Only 11% of investors have adopted one, showing that social and regional impacts remain under-integrated in climate finance.

Asia’s transition will require place-based planning. Coal-heavy markets, export-driven manufacturing hubs, emerging economies and advanced financial centres all need different pathways.

For metals producers and industrial companies, this creates both opportunity and scrutiny. Investors will increasingly prefer companies with credible decarbonisation strategies, resilient supply chains and exposure to climate-enabling materials.

The broader message is clear. Climate finance in Asia is moving from ambition toward execution, but policy certainty and transition planning must improve before capital can scale at the speed required.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Asian investors are telling governments that climate capital needs bankable rules, not slogans. For metals markets, the strongest signal is energy storage: policy clarity could turn climate finance into real demand for copper, aluminium, lithium and grid materials.

Copper Record High Signals Deeper Supply Stress Across Global Market

Copper

Copper record high prices on the London Metal Exchange show how quickly supply risks, regional stockbuilding and stronger Chinese demand signals are reshaping the market. Three-month LME copper settled at $14,140/t, setting a new official high and reinforcing the metal’s structural bull case.

Copper record high momentum has not come from one isolated event. It reflects a convergence of mine disruption, weak Chilean output, tight concentrate availability, sulphuric acid constraints and US tariff-related stockbuilding.

Copper record high pricing is also being supported by stronger Chinese import signals. The Yangshan copper premium rose to around $72/t, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen by 58% since 13 March to 181,333t.

Comex copper also traded at record levels at $6.485/lb, with the US contract holding a premium of nearly $700/t over LME copper. That spread shows how US tariff risk continues to pull refined metal into the American market.

Supply Risks Now Dominate Copper Pricing

Supply pressure remains the strongest driver behind the rally. Chile’s three largest copper producers all reported lower March output, with Codelco down by around 10%, Escondida down by nearly 16% and Collahuasi down by almost 11%.

Chile’s national copper output fell by around 9% over the same period. That decline matters because the market has limited spare mine capacity to absorb losses from the world’s largest copper-producing country.

Lower ore grades remain a structural problem. Ageing infrastructure, operational interruptions and delayed modernisation projects are also reducing the ability of major mines to respond quickly to higher prices.

Copper concentrate treatment charges are deeply negative in China, confirming the pressure on concentrate availability. Smelters are competing for feedstock while mine supply remains constrained.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have also become more important market variables. Middle East disruption and Chinese restrictions on sulphuric acid exports are raising risks for leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning operations.

This is especially relevant to the African copperbelt, where sulphuric acid is a critical reagent. If acid availability tightens further, production costs could rise or output could be affected in one of the world’s key copper growth regions.

Peru adds another risk point. Open-pit copper mines there depend heavily on diesel for haulage and mine movement, making sustained fuel disruption a potential operational threat.

China Demand and US Stockbuilding Split Refined Flows

China is returning as a stronger buyer of imported cathode. Falling SHFE inventories and a higher Yangshan premium suggest that domestic availability has tightened enough to revive seaborne buying interest.

China’s stronger export data also support the demand picture. April exports rose by 14.1% year on year to a record $359.44bn, beating expectations and pointing to more resilient industrial activity.

That matters for copper because electric vehicles, grid equipment, renewable energy components and battery storage all require significant copper input. Stronger industrial exports can therefore reinforce physical demand.

At the same time, US policy risk is pulling refined copper west. Tariff-related stockbuilding has created a strong Comex premium, encouraging traders to move metal into the US system.

This split is tightening ex-US availability. The US is absorbing refined units for policy protection, while China is pulling cathode back into its import market.

Fund activity has amplified the move. Trend-following money has re-entered Comex as copper broke through technical levels, making prices more sensitive to momentum flows.

The current rally may still face corrections. However, the price floor remains supported by slow mine response, fragile processing inputs and competing regional demand centres.

Copper is no longer trading only as an industrial cycle indicator. It is becoming a strategic material shaped by policy, infrastructure demand, energy transition, AI-linked power systems and supply-chain security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s record is not just a price event; it is a signal that the supply chain is losing flexibility. The strongest warning is that mine output, processing inputs and refined metal location are all tightening at the same time.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

Automotive Raw Material Supply Chains Hit Localisation Limits

Automotive

Automotive raw material supply chains are becoming the main constraint on electric vehicle localisation as carmakers seek more control over strategic components. Automakers want regional supply chains, but battery metals, rare earths and processed inputs still depend on global mining and refining networks.

Automotive raw material supply chains have shifted from pure efficiency toward resilience, security and geopolitical risk management. The industry is no longer trying only to minimise cost. It is trying to protect production from export controls, licensing delays, trade restrictions and raw material shortages.

Automotive raw material supply chains therefore cannot be fully localised by assembling batteries, motors or electronics closer to vehicle plants. The deeper constraint sits upstream, where lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and rare earth materials remain tied to global extraction and processing capacity.

The result is a more selective supply-chain model. Automakers will regionalise the components they can control, while still relying on global raw materials for the minerals and refined products they cannot replace quickly.

EV Localisation Still Depends on Global Critical Minerals

Jaguar Land Rover has decided to control three critical parts of electric propulsion: battery assembly, electric drive units and energy management systems. This gives the company more control over the final systems that define EV performance.

However, vertical integration has limits. Even if an automaker controls battery assembly or electric drive units, it may not control the lithium chemicals, nickel sulphate, cobalt, manganese, graphite or rare earth magnets inside those systems.

Permanent magnet motors remain one of the clearest pressure points. Electric drive units depend on rare earth materials that are still heavily exposed to Chinese processing, magnet production and export licensing.

Obtaining magnet raw materials from China has become more difficult from a licensing perspective. This shows how export controls can affect vehicle production even when the final assembly line is located in Europe or the US.

Battery supply chains face the same structural problem. Automakers can localise pack assembly, module production and software integration, but raw material exposure remains global.

Lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese supply depends on mine locations, refining capacity, chemical conversion and government policy. These inputs cannot be made local simply by building a battery plant near an auto factory.

This changes the meaning of automotive localisation. The next phase will be less about full independence and more about reducing exposure to single-country bottlenecks.

Recycling and Traceability Become Strategic Tools

Critical minerals recycling is becoming a strategic issue for automakers, not only an environmental goal. Black mass recovery can eventually return lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and other materials into the supply chain.

Recycling can reduce raw material exposure over time. But it depends on enough end-of-life batteries, reliable collection systems, safe transport, processing capacity and customer acceptance of recovered materials.

The UK’s critical minerals strategy reflects this reality. Domestic production, partner-country supply agreements and recycling can improve resilience, but full self-sufficiency is not realistic.

That point matters for manufacturers. Supply security will depend on diversified sourcing, trusted partners, recycling loops and traceable material flows rather than a complete break from global markets.

The shift will also affect pricing. Materials may increasingly carry value based on origin, regulatory acceptability, sustainability documentation and licensing risk.

A battery metal or rare earth input from a secure and traceable source may command a premium over lower-cost material with higher geopolitical or compliance risk.

For automakers, the strategic challenge is clear. They must control more of the EV system while accepting that critical mineral supply will remain globally contested.

For metals suppliers, the opportunity is also clear. Producers that can offer traceable, compliant and secure supply will become more valuable to automotive customers than suppliers competing only on price.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Automakers are learning that EV localisation stops where raw material dependence begins. The winners in automotive supply security will be those that connect local manufacturing with diversified minerals, recycling capacity and credible traceability.

Indonesia Nickel Royalty Changes Delayed as Jakarta Balances State Revenue and Producer Costs

Indonesia Nickel

Indonesia nickel royalty changes have been delayed as the government reviews planned royalty increases and export taxes for nickel products. Jakarta is trying to balance higher state revenue with the cost pressure already facing miners, smelters and battery-material producers.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes were initially expected to take effect in June. But the energy and mineral resources ministry will now reassess the policy after industry consultations.

Indonesia nickel royalty changes are part of a wider policy reset covering nickel, copper, tin, gold, silver and other minerals. The government wants a formula that captures more value for the state without damaging investment in downstream processing.

The delay also applies to planned export duties on nickel products. Indonesia will continue finalising the pricing mechanism for the duty, but implementation has been pushed back.

Downstreaming Policy Meets Rising Cost Pressure

Indonesia’s nickel export duty plan is tied to its downstreaming strategy. The policy aims to push mining and metals companies to build more domestic value-added capacity instead of exporting lower-value materials.

The country has already become the world’s most important nickel processing hub. However, officials say the sector has developed only about 40% of its potential, leaving room for more investment in battery materials, stainless steel and other downstream products.

The royalty delay shows that Indonesia understands the risk of overloading producers with too many cost increases at once. Miners and processors are already dealing with tighter RKAB quotas, higher ore costs and rising input risks.

Indonesia updated its nickel ore pricing formula on 15 April. The new mechanism includes cobalt, iron and chromium in ore valuation, increasing raw material costs for downstream users.

This change is especially important for high-pressure acid leach projects, which consume limonite ore and produce mixed hydroxide precipitate for battery supply chains. Higher ore prices can raise costs for nickel intermediates and reduce margins.

Sulphur supply risk is another pressure point. Middle East disruption has raised concerns over sulphur availability, a key input for nickel processing. This has supported nickel prices but also increased uncertainty for producers.

Nickel Prices Supported by Policy and Supply Risk

Indonesia’s recent policy shifts have generally supported nickel prices. LME nickel rose to around $19,450/t on 6 May from $18,075/t on 15 April, supported by the revised ore pricing formula, sulphur supply concerns and lower 2026 RKAB quota expectations.

The delayed royalty and export tax changes may ease immediate producer pressure. But they do not reverse the broader direction of Indonesian policy.

Jakarta still wants to capture more value from its mineral resources. It also wants companies to keep investing in domestic processing and a more complete nickel supply chain.

For the nickel market, this creates a more policy-sensitive pricing environment. Ore quotas, benchmark formulas, export taxes, royalties and downstream investment rules can all influence costs and trade flows.

The delay gives producers time, but not certainty. Companies will still need to plan for higher government take, stricter ore valuation and stronger pressure to invest in domestic value-added products.

Indonesia’s nickel strategy is therefore entering a more complex phase. The country wants to remain the dominant global nickel hub, but it must avoid weakening the economics that attracted downstream investment in the first place.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s delay is not a retreat from resource nationalism; it is a recalibration. Jakarta wants more value from nickel, but it also knows that excessive cost pressure could slow the downstreaming model that made Indonesia central to global battery and stainless steel supply.

Kamoa-Kakula Sulphuric Acid Output Turns Copperbelt Squeeze Into Margin Support

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid production has become a major earnings support for Ivanhoe Mines as tight acid availability across the African Copperbelt lifts by-product revenue. The company’s new direct-to-blister smelter in the Democratic Republic of Congo is turning a regional supply constraint into a margin advantage.

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid output reached 117,871t in the first quarter. Ivanhoe sold 107,700t to six offtakers at an average realised price of $467/t.

Kamoa-Kakula sulphuric acid pricing is now moving higher. Ivanhoe recently signed a June delivery contract at $725/t and plans to re-tender and reprice remaining contracts by the end of the quarter.

The shift is strategically important because many copper producers in the DRC and Zambia consume sulphuric acid for leaching. Kamoa-Kakula, by contrast, produces acid as a by-product, giving Ivanhoe a natural hedge against the same squeeze hurting regional competitors.

Acid Credits Change the Kamoa-Kakula Cost Structure

Sulphuric acid has become one of the hidden drivers of Copperbelt copper economics. The DRC and Zambia rely heavily on acid for solvent extraction and leaching operations, and supply has tightened because of Middle East sulphur disruption, Zambian acid export controls and smelter maintenance in the region.

Ivanhoe said around 80% of sulphur imported into Africa moves through the Strait of Hormuz. That makes the Copperbelt highly exposed to disruption in Middle Eastern sulphur flows.

The Kamoa-Kakula smelter changes Ivanhoe’s exposure. Instead of paying higher acid costs, the operation is selling acid into a tight regional market.

Smelter operating costs averaged $0.27/lb in the first quarter. Sulphuric acid by-product credits more than offset that cost at $0.32/lb.

This cost structure helped lower Kamoa-Kakula’s cash cost to $2.58/lb from $2.99/lb in the previous quarter. The result was slightly below the lower end of Ivanhoe’s 2026 guidance range of $2.60-3.00/lb.

The smelter also reduced logistics costs. Kamoa-Kakula exported 99.7% pure copper anodes instead of 35-40% copper concentrate, cutting logistics costs to $0.22/lb from $0.70/lb in the fourth quarter.

That shift matters because the smelter moves Ivanhoe further down the value chain. Higher-grade exported material reduces transport intensity, lowers logistics exposure and improves revenue capture.

Kamoa-Kakula generated revenue of $862mn, operating profit of $221mn and Ebitda of $397mn in the quarter. That represented an Ebitda margin of 46%.

However, Ivanhoe’s group results were still weaker. Adjusted Ebitda fell to $191mn from $226mn a year earlier, while the company reported a $2mn quarterly loss compared with a $122mn profit a year earlier.

The loss mainly reflected Ivanhoe’s $42mn share of loss from Kamoa Holding after Kamoa-Kakula booked a $183mn tax adjustment to settle DRC tax claims from previous years. This means the headline loss should be separated from the operational value of the smelter and acid credits.

Smelter Ramp-Up Links Copper Recovery to Regional Supply Strategy

Kamoa-Kakula’s copper output remains affected by disruption from last year’s seismic activity. The operation produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate in the first quarter, down from 133,120t a year earlier.

Contained copper in blister and anode totalled 71,417t. This included 63,671t from the on-site smelter and 7,746t from the Lualaba Copper Smelter in Kolwezi.

Ivanhoe maintained Kamoa-Kakula’s 2026 guidance at 290,000-330,000t of contained copper in anode or blister. Its 2027 guidance remains at 380,000-420,000t.

The company still expects production to return to more than 500,000 t/yr from 2028, with a target cash cost below $2/lb. Reaching that level will depend on mine recovery, smelter utilisation, power stability and logistics performance.

The smelter is currently operating at around 60% of design capacity. It is producing acid at about 1,350 t/d, but further ramp-up is constrained by concentrate availability.

Ivanhoe is assessing purchases and toll treatment of local third-party copper concentrates to raise smelter utilisation and improve margins. This could make Kamoa-Kakula more important to the regional concentrate market.

That point matters globally. Chinese smelters continue to face negative treatment charges, showing how tight copper concentrate supply has become. If Kamoa-Kakula becomes a larger third-party treatment option, it could offer an alternative regional route for selected Copperbelt concentrates.

Logistics are also changing. The first shipment of Kamoa-Kakula anodes moved through the Lobito railway corridor during the quarter and reached the Atlantic port of Lobito before shipment to Europe for refining.

Ivanhoe said the Lobito rail route takes around seven days from the DRC Copperbelt to the port. That compares with more than three weeks by truck to Durban or Dar es Salaam.

Flood damage in Angola temporarily halted Lobito shipments, but movements are expected to resume later this month. If reliable, the corridor could become a major strategic route for Central African copper exports.

Energy remains another critical variable. Ivanhoe has secured five months of diesel supply to protect operations from global supply-chain disruption.

The company is also developing a 60MW solar and battery storage project expected to deliver baseload power to Kamoa-Kakula from early in the third quarter. It plans to double on-site solar capacity to 120MW by the end of 2027.

These steps show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer only a copper mine story. The asset now combines mining, smelting, acid supply, anode exports, rail logistics and on-site power strategy.

That integrated model gives Ivanhoe a stronger position in a region where other copper producers are exposed to acid shortages, sulphur disruption, diesel risk and long trucking routes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s smelter has turned Kamoa-Kakula into a more strategic Copperbelt asset, not just a high-grade copper producer. In a market where acid, logistics and power can decide margins, the operation’s by-product and infrastructure advantages may become as important as its copper grade.

Nowa Sol Copper Concentrate Talks Could Link Lumina Metals to KGHM Smelters

Lumina Metals

Nowa Sol copper concentrate could become a new feed source for Poland’s dominant copper producer after Lumina Metals entered talks with KGHM over a potential supply agreement. The companies have signed a preliminary agreement to discuss concentrate supply from Lumina’s Nowa Sol project to KGHM’s copper smelters.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate discussions remain at an early stage. The agreement is not legally binding, but it gives both companies a formal framework to assess volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate is strategically important because the project sits inside Poland’s northern copper belt, close to KGHM’s existing copper-silver operations. That location could reduce logistical complexity if the project advances and concentrate proves suitable for KGHM’s smelting system.

The talks also show how European copper producers are looking more closely at regional feedstock options. Copper concentrate availability remains tight globally, and smelters increasingly value nearby, compatible and traceable supply.

KGHM Compatibility Will Decide Commercial Potential

KGHM’s interest will depend on whether Nowa Sol concentrate fits its smelter requirements. Copper concentrate supply is not interchangeable because each smelter has limits around grade, impurities, mineralogy and blending needs.

The preliminary agreement focuses directly on those issues. Lumina and KGHM will evaluate potential volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility before any binding offtake structure can emerge.

This matters because smelter feed security is becoming more valuable. Global copper concentrate treatment charges have remained under pressure, reflecting tight mine supply and strong competition among smelters for suitable feed.

For KGHM, a nearby Polish concentrate source could offer strategic advantages if the material meets technical requirements. It could support domestic smelter utilisation and reduce dependence on longer-distance concentrate flows.

For Lumina, a potential supply route to KGHM would strengthen the Nowa Sol project’s commercial pathway. A project located near an established copper producer has a clearer route to market than one that must rely entirely on distant export channels.

Poland’s Copper Belt Gains Strategic Attention

Nowa Sol is Lumina’s flagship underground copper project. It covers a 120km² concession area in Poland’s northern copper belt, a region already associated with copper and silver production.

The project’s location near KGHM’s operations gives it industrial relevance beyond resource potential. Proximity to mining infrastructure, smelting expertise and an established copper workforce can improve development logic if technical and economic studies support the project.

Lumina listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in April to raise capital for Nowa Sol. The KGHM discussions could help strengthen investor confidence by showing that the project has potential domestic offtake interest.

Poland is already a meaningful copper jurisdiction because of KGHM’s role as the country’s main producer. Any new copper concentrate source inside the same industrial region could support national and European supply security.

The broader market context is also supportive. Copper demand is rising from grids, electrification, renewable energy, data centres and industrial manufacturing, while new mine supply remains difficult to develop.

That makes regional copper projects more strategically valuable. Europe needs not only refined copper, but also mine supply and concentrate flows that can support existing smelting capacity.

The Lumina-KGHM talks are therefore modest in legal status but meaningful in direction. They show how copper supply chains are becoming more regional, technical and security-focused.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The potential Lumina-KGHM deal shows that copper value is increasingly tied to location and smelter fit, not only resource size. If Nowa Sol can deliver compatible concentrate near KGHM’s system, it could become a useful European copper supply asset.

KoBold Mingomba Copper Project Advances as Zambia Targets Major Supply Growth

KoBold Metals

KoBold Mingomba copper project has broken ground in Zambia, moving one of Africa’s largest planned copper mines closer to development. The project is expected to cost more than $2.3bn and produce more than 300,000 t/yr of copper once fully ramped up.

KoBold Mingomba copper project is strategically important because Zambia wants to lift national copper production to about 3mn t/yr by the early 2030s. A project of this scale could become one of the country’s most important new supply sources.

KoBold Mingomba copper project also highlights the growing role of AI-led exploration in critical minerals. KoBold has used proprietary artificial intelligence and machine-learning tools to define a high-grade copper resource deep underground.

The company acquired Mingomba in December 2022. It is now beginning early construction work before completing all engineering studies, with a final cost estimate expected by early next year.

Zambia Copper Investment Gains Momentum

Mingomba could become one of Zambia’s largest copper investments. At more than 300,000 t/yr of planned output, it would rank with some of the largest single copper assets globally.

The project supports Zambia’s wider copper growth strategy. The country is trying to attract large-scale mining investment after years of operational, tax and policy uncertainty.

Other producers are also expanding in Zambia. Barrick and First Quantum are pursuing projects that could help rebuild national output growth.

This matters because copper demand is rising from grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and AI data centres. But new mine supply remains difficult to deliver.

Permitting delays, declining grades and higher capital costs continue to slow global copper development. This gives high-grade, large-scale African projects greater strategic value.

Zambia has a natural advantage because it already has mining infrastructure, workforce experience and established copper export channels. However, execution still depends on policy stability, power supply, transport and downstream processing capacity.

AI Exploration Adds New Dimension to Copper Supply

KoBold’s approach makes Mingomba more than a conventional copper project. The company has built its strategy around using AI and machine learning to analyse geological data and accelerate discovery.

Technology-led exploration is becoming more important as the mining industry searches for deeper, harder-to-find deposits. Many easy copper discoveries have already been developed.

Mingomba’s deep underground resource shows why new exploration methods matter. Future copper supply will increasingly depend on better data, faster targeting and more efficient drilling.

KoBold is backed by major technology and energy-transition investors, including Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman. That investor base reflects copper’s growing role in electrification and strategic materials policy.

The company is still assessing smelting and refining options for Mingomba’s output. This will be important because mine production alone does not guarantee secure copper supply.

Processing, logistics and offtake structures will determine how Mingomba’s copper enters global markets. Zambia’s ability to capture more value domestically may also shape the project’s long-term impact.

KoBold is also expanding its African critical minerals strategy. It has outlined plans for lithium exploration in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 2027 and is reviewing lithium and nickel opportunities in Namibia. It has also begun early-stage copper exploration in Botswana.

The broader signal is clear. Africa is becoming central to the next phase of copper and critical minerals supply, while technology-led exploration is changing how new deposits are found and financed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mingomba is important because it combines scale, grade and timing in a copper market short of credible new supply. If KoBold can convert AI-led discovery into mine execution, Zambia could gain one of the most strategically important copper assets of the next decade.

Glencore Copper Production Rises as DRC Cobalt Quota Reshapes Output Priorities

Glencore

Glencore copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as higher grades at its African copper mines and stronger throughput at Antamina lifted output. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group produced 199,600t of copper, up 19% from a year earlier.

Glencore copper production growth contrasts with a steep fall in cobalt output. Own-sourced cobalt production dropped by 39% to 5,800t, mainly because the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system has changed how producers manage shipments and mine planning.

Glencore copper production is now becoming more important inside its DRC asset base because cobalt export limits have made copper the clearer operating priority. This shift shows how state policy can directly reshape output behaviour in multi-metal mining systems.

The company maintained full-year production guidance for copper, nickel and zinc, despite weaker output in several other metals. Copper guidance remains at 810,000-870,000t for the year.

DRC Quota System Pushes Cobalt Lower

The sharp fall in cobalt output reflects the DRC’s quota system, introduced after the country moved away from its earlier export ban framework. The system capped shipments and set annual limits for 2026-27, with an additional strategic pool.

For Glencore, the practical effect is clear. Its DRC assets are now prioritising copper production because copper can move through the market with fewer quota-related constraints.

This matters for battery and superalloy supply chains. The DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, so export policy can quickly affect availability, pricing and producer behaviour.

Cobalt is not produced in isolation at many Congolese operations. It is often linked to copper mining, which means policy limits on cobalt can influence mine sequencing, processing priorities and inventory decisions.

The first-quarter numbers therefore point to a more managed cobalt market. Supply is not only a function of ore grades and plant capacity. It is increasingly controlled by export approvals, quotas and state strategy.

Copper benefited from stronger grades at African operations and higher throughput at Antamina in Peru. That performance reinforces copper’s stronger strategic position at a time when demand from grids, electrification, industrial policy and data centres continues to attract market attention.

Nickel, Zinc and Ferro-Chrome Show Operational Pressure

Glencore’s nickel output fell by 9% to 17,200t. The decline was caused by a furnace disruption at the Sudbury complex in Canada, which affected matte shipment timing to Norway.

Nickel guidance remained unchanged at 70,000-80,000t. This suggests Glencore sees the first-quarter weakness as manageable rather than a full-year supply reset.

Zinc output fell by 17% to 176,900t. The decline was mainly linked to the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in Australia and lower output from Kazzinc in Kazakhstan.

Zinc guidance also remained unchanged at 700,000-740,000t. However, the first-quarter result shows how mine closures and regional production issues can still weigh on quarterly availability.

Ferro-chrome output collapsed by 95% to 13,000t because of continued care and maintenance at Glencore’s chrome smelting operations and the phased restart of the Lion Smelter in South Africa.

South African ferro-chrome remains under pressure from high energy prices and competition from lower-cost Chinese material. This has forced output cuts at major producers and weakened South Africa’s position in global ferro-alloy supply.

Glencore’s vanadium pentoxide production rose by 5% to 2,300t, offering a small positive signal in another strategic alloy material.

Overall, the quarter shows a company benefiting from copper strength while managing policy and cost pressures across cobalt, nickel, zinc and ferro-chrome. The most important signal is that copper and cobalt are now being shaped by very different forces: copper by grade and throughput, cobalt by DRC export control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s results show how government policy can be as powerful as geology in multi-metal supply chains. The DRC cobalt quota is not only reducing cobalt output; it is pushing producers to prioritise copper in one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

First Quantum Copper Output Falls But Cobre Panama Stockpile Lifts 2026 Guidance

First Quantum

First Quantum copper output declined in the first quarter as lower production from the company’s Zambian mines offset a sharp increase in nickel output. The Canadian miner produced 96,469t of copper in January-March, down 3.2% from a year earlier.

First Quantum copper output was weaker at both Kansanshi and Sentinel, the company’s two main operating copper assets in Zambia. Copper sales also fell by 11.7% to 90,049t because of shipment timing and inventory replenishment at Kansanshi after stronger sales in the previous quarter.

First Quantum copper output guidance for 2026 was raised despite the weaker first-quarter result. The company increased its full-year copper production outlook to 405,000-475,000t after Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at the closed Cobre Panama mine.

The approval changes the near-term production picture, but it does not reopen Cobre Panama. The mine remains closed after protests and a court ruling in 2023 found its operating contract unconstitutional.

Zambian Mines Weaken as Grades and Recoveries Pressure Output

Kansanshi produced 45,345t of copper in the first quarter, down 2.6% from a year earlier. The decline reflects the challenge of maintaining output from mature large-scale copper operations.

Sentinel produced 45,252t of copper, down 2.4% on the year. Lower feed grades and weaker recoveries reduced output at the mine.

These results show how copper supply can weaken even when operating assets remain active. Mine grades, recovery rates, mill performance and shipment timing all influence quarterly supply.

The weaker sales figure also matters. First Quantum sold 90,049t of copper in the quarter, below production, because of shipment timing and the need to rebuild Kansanshi inventories.

For copper markets, Zambia remains important because it is one of Africa’s key producing regions. Stable output from Kansanshi and Sentinel supports global supply at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on secure copper sources outside more politically sensitive routes.

First Quantum’s nickel production moved in the opposite direction. Output rose by 165.4% on the year to 12,340t, supported by higher grades and recoveries.

The nickel increase improves the company’s diversified metals profile. But copper remains the strategic core of First Quantum’s business and the main driver of market attention.

Cobre Panama Stockpile Approval Adds Near-Term Copper Supply

First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production guidance after Panama approved the removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. The site will process around 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing about 70,000t of recoverable copper.

This approval gives First Quantum a short-term supply and cash-flow opportunity from material already mined before the shutdown. It does not involve new mining, drilling or blasting.

Cobre Panama was one of the largest copper mines in the Americas before its closure. It produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply.

The mine’s shutdown removed a major source of copper supply and had a severe impact on First Quantum’s revenue base. The stockpile processing approval partly eases that impact, but only for material already on site.

The long-term future of Cobre Panama remains unresolved. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement with Panama.

This distinction is important for copper markets. Stockpile processing can add near-term units, but it does not restore the full mine or solve the broader supply loss from the 2023 closure.

First Quantum kept its 2026 nickel production guidance unchanged at 30,000-40,000t. That suggests the main guidance change is tied directly to Cobre Panama’s approved stockpile treatment.

For investors and copper buyers, the company’s outlook now depends on two tracks. Zambia must stabilise operating performance, while Panama determines how much value can be recovered from Cobre Panama without reopening the mine.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s guidance increase is a stockpile story, not a full Cobre Panama recovery story. The approval adds useful copper units, but the real strategic question remains whether Panama and First Quantum can ever rebuild a legal framework for long-term mining.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.