Brazil Critical Minerals Bill Moves Country Toward Domestic Processing Strategy

Critical Minerals

Brazil critical minerals bill approval by the lower house marks a major step toward turning the country’s mineral reserves into a domestic industrial development strategy. The bill establishes the national policy of critical and strategic minerals and creates incentives for companies to process and transform those materials inside Brazil.

Brazil critical minerals bill measures include a new mineral activity guarantee fund backed by R2bn in federal money. The fund will support projects linked to the production of critical and strategic minerals.

Brazil critical minerals bill incentives also include R5bn in tax credits over five years to encourage processing and transformation. This shows that Brazil does not want to remain only an exporter of raw materials.

The bill will now move to the senate. Mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said he will work directly with senators to accelerate approval, framing critical minerals as a matter of economic modernisation and national sovereignty.

Processing Incentives Target Value Creation Inside Brazil

The bill creates the national council for the industrialisation of critical and strategic minerals. The council will decide which minerals qualify as critical and strategic and will update the list every four years.

This structure is important because Brazil has large resource potential but still needs stronger domestic processing capacity. Without refining, separation, transformation and recycling, mineral wealth can leave the country as low-value raw material.

The proposed guarantee fund and tax credits are designed to change that pattern. They will support projects considered strategic under the national policy, with a focus on minerals that can strengthen Brazil’s industrial base.

Congress member Arnaldo Jardim, the bill’s rapporteur, said critical minerals represent a development opportunity for Brazil. He argued that the country should become a major rare earths producer, stimulate recycling through urban mining and make its processing industry more competitive.

That message reflects a broader shift in resource policy. Brazil is trying to position critical minerals as a tool for industrial development, not only export revenue.

Rare earths are especially important. Brazil has significant rare earth potential, and global buyers are searching for alternatives to China-dominated supply chains. If Brazil can move beyond mining into separation and processing, it could become more relevant to magnet, defence, electronics and clean energy markets.

Urban mining also deserves attention. Recycling can strengthen domestic supply, reduce waste and create secondary sources of critical materials from electronics, batteries, industrial scrap and end-of-life equipment.

US Interest Raises Brazil’s Strategic Importance

The bill comes as Brazil and the US are discussing critical minerals more actively. Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump are expected to meet this week, and critical minerals are likely to be part of the agenda.

The US has long sought a critical minerals agreement with Brazil. Goias state has already signed a cooperation agreement with the US, although Brazil’s federal government has challenged its legal validity.

That dispute shows how politically sensitive critical minerals have become. Foreign partnerships can bring investment and market access, but the federal government wants to ensure that strategic minerals serve national interests.

Brazil holds about 10% of global critical minerals reserves, according to domestic research and mining institutions. The sector is expected to attract $21.3bn in investment by 2030.

This gives Brazil strong leverage. The country has rare earths, niobium, graphite, nickel, lithium and other minerals that are increasingly important to batteries, magnets, aerospace, electronics and energy transition technologies.

However, reserves alone will not determine Brazil’s role. The country must build processing capacity, permitting efficiency, infrastructure, financing tools and reliable industrial partnerships.

The new policy could help unlock that pathway. If approved by the senate and implemented effectively, it could shift Brazil from a raw material supplier toward a more integrated critical minerals economy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil is making the right strategic move by linking critical minerals to processing, tax incentives and industrial policy. The real test will be execution: Brazil must convert resource potential into refining, separation, recycling and customer-ready supply before global competitors secure the next wave of investment.

Heavy Rare Earth Supply Push Gains US Defense Backing Through REalloys

REalloys

Heavy rare earth supply has moved further into the US defense priority list after REalloys received a memorandum from the Department of Defense highlighting the need to secure domestic production of critical heavy rare earth elements. The document specifically identified dysprosium and terbium as the most critical and high-value materials.

The signal is important because heavy rare earth supply remains one of the weakest points in western permanent magnet value chains. Dysprosium and terbium are essential for high-performance magnets that must operate under heat, stress and demanding defense conditions.

REalloys said the Department of Defense is treating heavy rare earths as a national security priority. The company also said Washington is renewing support through financial investment, strategic policy and public-private partnerships.

The company is now expanding its North American metallisation platform to produce defense-grade dysprosium and terbium at commercial scale. That step targets one of the most important bottlenecks between rare earth separation and magnet manufacturing.

Dysprosium and Terbium Become Defense-Critical Materials

Dysprosium and terbium are not large-volume rare earths, but their industrial importance is high. They help improve the thermal stability and performance of neodymium-iron-boron magnets used in advanced motors, actuators, sensors and defense systems.

This makes them strategically different from ordinary raw materials. Even small shortages can affect high-value manufacturing programmes if qualified metal, alloy or magnet feedstock is unavailable.

The US defense focus reflects a wider shift in rare earth policy. Governments are no longer concerned only with mining rare earth ore. They are increasingly focused on separated oxides, metals, alloys and magnet-ready materials.

That is where heavy rare earth supply becomes difficult. China remains dominant across heavy rare earth processing and magnet material production, leaving western defense and industrial users exposed to export controls and licensing risk.

REalloys’ focus on defense-grade dysprosium and terbium is therefore strategically relevant. It addresses the material form that downstream manufacturers need, not only the upstream resource question.

Metallisation Capacity Is the Midstream Bottleneck

REalloys is expanding its North American metallisation platform with support from a long-term offtake agreement with the Saskatchewan Research Council facility in Canada. The agreement can provide feedstock sufficient to produce up to 530 t/yr of rare earth metals.

This feedstock link is important because rare earth metal production requires reliable separated material, technical process control and customer qualification. Without metallisation, separated rare earth oxides cannot fully support magnet and defense supply chains.

The North American rare earth supply chain still has several missing links. Mining and separation projects are advancing, but metal-making, alloy production and magnet manufacturing capacity remain limited.

REalloys’ platform could help close part of that gap. Producing dysprosium and terbium metal at commercial scale would give defense and magnet customers a more secure regional source of high-value heavy rare earth inputs.

The larger implication is clear. Western rare earth resilience will depend on building each stage of the chain, from feedstock to separated oxides, metals, alloys and final magnets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The REalloys announcement shows that heavy rare earth strategy is moving beyond resource ownership into usable metal production. For defense supply chains, dysprosium and terbium security will depend on metallisation capacity, not only rare earth mining.

Ferroglobe Silicon Shipments Fall as European Plants Face Import Pressure

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon shipments fell in the first quarter after the company suspended production across its European silicon metal plants in October. The decline shows how weak demand and low-priced imports are reshaping Europe’s silicon metal market.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments dropped by 15.9% year on year to 30,533t in January-March. The company later restarted one of two furnaces at its Anglefort plant in France to maintain an EU operating presence.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments remain under pressure because European production costs are still struggling to compete against lower-cost third-country imports. The company warned that the current market structure is no longer viable during a prolonged period of depressed demand.

The issue is strategically important because silicon metal supports aluminium alloys, silicones, solar materials, semiconductors and industrial chemicals. If European smelting capacity continues to close, the region’s downstream industries will become more dependent on imported feedstock.

European Silicon Metal Faces Low-Cost Import Pressure

Ferroglobe said the European silicon metal market remains under pressure from China and Angola. Angola has emerged as a faster-growing supplier into the EU, increasing its market share during the first two months of 2026.

Angola supplied 993t of silicon metal to the EU in February, up by around two-thirds from a year earlier. Its EU market share more than doubled to 3.3% in January-February from 1.5% a year earlier.

This matters because even modest import share gains can influence pricing when demand is weak. European producers with higher energy and operating costs have limited room to absorb lower selling prices.

Ferroglobe has called for the EU to introduce anti-dumping duties on certain third-country suppliers selling at low prices into the bloc. The company made the request after the European Commission excluded silicon metal from last year’s safeguard investigation.

The policy question is now becoming more urgent. Europe wants strategic materials security, but it also needs trade tools that keep domestic production viable when imports undercut regional cost structures.

Without stronger protection or demand recovery, European silicon metal output could remain constrained. That would weaken the region’s ability to support aluminium, chemicals, solar and advanced manufacturing supply chains from local feedstock.

Ferro-Alloy Sales Offset Silicon Weakness

Ferroglobe’s broader first-quarter performance was supported by stronger silicon-based and manganese-based alloy shipments. This helped offset weaker silicon metal volumes.

Shipments of silicon-based alloys rose by 41.6% year on year to 60,674t. The increase was driven by stronger US demand for ferro-silicon.

However, average selling prices for silicon-based alloys fell by 4.9% to $2,016/t. Competitive conditions in the US and South Africa limited pricing power despite stronger volumes.

Manganese-based alloy sales also improved sharply. Shipments rose by 27.5% to 85,743t, supported by recently implemented safeguard measures.

The average selling price for manganese-based alloys increased by 12.8% to $1,250/t because of higher European prices. This shows how trade measures can directly support pricing when regional supply protection is in place.

Ferroglobe’s total sales rose by 13.2% year on year to $347.7mn. The increase came from higher silicon-based and manganese-based alloy volumes, along with stronger manganese alloy pricing.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 112.5% to $3.3mn. The improvement was meaningful, but margins remain thin for a company operating in volatile alloy and silicon markets.

The company is also considering reopening operations in Venezuela. Those assets are close to the US market and could benefit from low-cost energy, raw materials and favourable logistics.

That strategy reflects the changing economics of ferro-alloy and silicon production. Energy cost, trade access, import protection and proximity to customers are becoming more important than legacy European capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s results show that Europe’s silicon metal problem is not only weak demand; it is structural cost exposure against lower-priced imports. If the EU wants domestic critical industrial material capacity, silicon metal may need the same policy seriousness now being applied to batteries, magnets and semiconductors.

Trafigura Egyptalum Aluminium Smelter Plan Expands Egypt’s Primary Aluminium Ambition

Trafigura

Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter plans could add a major new primary aluminium production base in Egypt, as commodity trader Trafigura enters exclusive negotiations with Egyptalum and Metallurgical Industries Holding. The proposed project would produce 300,000 t/yr of primary aluminium at Egyptalum’s Nag Hammadi complex.

The Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter project is expected to cost $750mn-900mn. It would also include a 150,000 t/yr anode plant, giving the new facility a more integrated raw material and consumables base.

The Trafigura Egyptalum aluminium smelter plan shows how commodity traders are moving deeper into asset-backed metals supply. Trafigura would act as a minority equity investor, debt provider, raw material supplier and long-term offtake partner.

The agreement also reflects a broader shift in aluminium. Trading houses are no longer only moving metal through global markets. They are helping finance new production capacity, secure offtake and shape where future aluminium units will flow.

Nag Hammadi Project Could Strengthen Egypt’s Aluminium Chain

The proposed smelter would be built at Egyptalum’s existing Nag Hammadi complex. This gives the project an industrial base rather than starting from a completely new site.

A 300,000 t/yr primary aluminium smelter would materially expand Egypt’s aluminium production capability. It would also support local value creation if linked to downstream manufacturing, construction, packaging, transport and electrical applications.

The planned 150,000 t/yr anode plant is strategically important. Carbon anodes are essential consumables in aluminium smelting, and supply reliability can affect operating continuity, production cost and quality.

Primary aluminium is highly power-intensive. This means the project’s competitiveness will depend on electricity pricing, energy reliability, carbon intensity, alumina supply, anode quality and logistics.

Trafigura’s role could help reduce commercial risk. By providing debt, raw materials and long-term offtake, the trader can give the project stronger financing and market access support.

This structure also benefits Trafigura. Long-term offtake gives the company access to physical aluminium units in a market where regional supply disruptions, tariffs and energy costs are increasingly shaping trade flows.

Trading Houses Move Further Into Aluminium Capacity

The Egypt agreement follows Trafigura’s recent investment alongside Glencore and Mercuria in an 800,000 t/yr aluminium smelter in Indonesia being developed by Tsingshan. Together, these moves point to a more aggressive strategy by major traders in aluminium supply.

The logic is clear. Aluminium is becoming more strategic because it supports transport, packaging, power grids, construction, renewable energy and defence-linked manufacturing.

At the same time, primary aluminium supply is constrained by power availability, high capital costs and limited restart options in several western markets. New capacity in energy-competitive regions is therefore gaining more commercial importance.

Egypt offers a potentially strategic location between Europe, the Middle East and Africa. If the project advances, it could serve both regional demand and export markets, depending on cost structure and product mix.

For Egyptalum and MIH, the partnership could bring capital, raw material access and international marketing capability. For Trafigura, it creates another long-term aluminium flow linked to financing and offtake control.

The project remains at the negotiation stage. Its final impact will depend on shareholder structure, financing terms, power arrangements, construction timing and operating economics.

Still, the industrial message is significant. Aluminium investment is increasingly being driven by integrated finance, raw material supply and offtake strategy rather than simple capacity announcements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trafigura’s Egyptalum talks show that aluminium capacity is becoming a strategic financing business. The next winners in aluminium will be those that can combine energy access, raw material control, anode supply and long-term offtake.

EGA Guinea Bauxite Supply Deal Restores Route to UAE Alumina Operations

Bauxite

EGA Guinea bauxite supply has moved closer to normalisation after Emirates Global Aluminium reached an amicable settlement with Guinea over the revocation of its bauxite mining licence. The agreement will allow Guinean producer CBG to resume bauxite shipments to EGA’s operations in the UAE.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply had been disrupted since Guinean customs suspended shipments from EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina in October 2024. The suspension followed delays in EGA’s plan to build an alumina refinery in Guinea.

EGA Guinea bauxite supply became more uncertain in 2025 when Guinea revoked EGA’s bauxite mining licence and reassigned it to newly created state-owned firm Nimba Mining. GAC continued to seek redress through legal action before the latest settlement.

The agreement includes a lump-sum payment by Guinea to GAC for the transfer of assets to Nimba Mining. It also renews EGA’s bauxite supply agreements with CBG under mutually beneficial commercial terms.

Guinea Settlement Reopens a Strategic Bauxite Channel

The settlement is important because Guinea is one of the world’s most important bauxite supply sources. Its high-volume export role makes it central to alumina refineries and integrated aluminium producers.

For EGA, access to Guinean bauxite supports feedstock security for its Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE. Stable bauxite supply is essential because alumina production depends on consistent ore quality, logistics and long-term commercial arrangements.

The dispute also shows how resource nationalism is reshaping aluminium raw material supply. Guinea has been pushing for more domestic value creation and stronger state control over mining assets.

The revocation of EGA’s licence formed part of a broader review of more than 50 mining licences granted over the past two decades. Those licences covered bauxite, iron ore, gold, diamonds and graphite.

By transferring assets to Nimba Mining while renewing supply through CBG, Guinea preserves more state influence while allowing trade with EGA to resume. This gives both sides a practical route out of a prolonged dispute.

For the wider aluminium market, the settlement reduces one layer of uncertainty around bauxite flows. However, it also reinforces the need for producers to manage political risk in key mining jurisdictions.

Hormuz Disruption and Smelter Damage Still Cloud Recovery

The bauxite agreement does not immediately remove all operational risk for EGA. The resumption of shipments to Al Taweelah depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been disrupted by the US-Israel and Iran war.

This adds a logistics risk to the feedstock recovery. Even with commercial terms resolved, bauxite and alumina supply chains still depend on safe shipping routes through one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.

EGA is also dealing with damage at its Al Taweelah aluminium smelter after a missile attack on 28 March. Operations there could take a year to resume, creating a separate challenge for the company’s primary aluminium output.

The situation highlights the dual exposure of integrated aluminium producers. They need secure upstream bauxite and alumina supply, but they also need reliable power, smelter operations and shipping routes.

For EGA, the Guinea settlement is a major positive for raw material continuity. But the company’s near-term recovery will still depend on geopolitical stability, shipping access and the pace of repairs at Al Taweelah.

The broader industrial message is clear. Aluminium supply security now depends on more than ore availability. It requires political settlement, maritime access, energy security and resilient smelting infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA’s settlement with Guinea shows that bauxite supply is becoming a political asset, not just a mining contract. The deal restores an important feedstock route, but Hormuz disruption and Al Taweelah damage show how fragile integrated aluminium supply chains have become.

Mercuria Venezuela Offtake Agreements Signal Push to Reopen Mineral Exports

Mercuria

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements mark a significant attempt to reconnect Venezuelan mineral supply with international markets. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group has signed strategic offtake agreements with investment firm Heeney Capital covering Venezuelan bulk commodities and gold projects.

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements are expected to support initial mineral exports worth about $2.2bn/yr. The partners are also advancing possible transactions in aluminium, nickel and ferrous products that could represent another $3bn/yr in export value, subject to regulatory approvals.

The agreements come as US government officials and industry participants visited Caracas to support new investment frameworks and supply agreements in oil and mining. The timing shows how raw materials trade is becoming more closely tied to diplomacy, sanctions policy and western supply-chain security.

Mercuria Venezuela offtake agreements also fit the trader’s broader expansion into metals and minerals. The company is using offtake structures to secure future supply while positioning itself in markets where conventional financing remains difficult.

Venezuela’s Aluminium and Nickel Revival Will Require Capital

Venezuela has historically been an important producer and exporter of aluminium, iron ore and other bulk commodities. However, its industrial base has weakened after years of underinvestment, power shortages, sanctions constraints and operational deterioration.

The aluminium sector is a clear example. Restarting or expanding output will require reliable electricity, working capital, plant rehabilitation, spare parts, logistics and customer confidence.

Nickel and ferrous products offer additional potential, but they face similar execution challenges. Resource availability alone will not be enough. Venezuela must rebuild industrial reliability and prove that export flows can operate consistently.

This makes Mercuria’s role important. A trading group can provide offtake, financing support, logistics expertise and market access without taking the same full risk as a mine owner or plant operator.

For Venezuela, the agreements could help generate export revenues and attract additional foreign capital. For western buyers, they could create another source of raw materials outside more concentrated supply chains.

Still, regulatory approval remains critical. Sanctions, compliance requirements and political risk will determine how quickly these agreements can move from announcement to physical trade.

Offtake Deals Reflect a New Metals Geopolitics

The structure of the agreements shows how metals trading is changing. Offtake deals are no longer just commercial purchase contracts. They are becoming tools for supply security, project restart and geopolitical alignment.

Commodity traders can secure future material while helping producers revive exports. This model is especially useful in jurisdictions where banks may hesitate, governments want fast results and buyers need alternative supply.

Mercuria’s Venezuela strategy also reflects the wider shift in western raw materials policy. The US and its allies are looking for new sources of industrial materials as supply chains become more fragmented and politically exposed.

This does not mean Venezuela can quickly return to full historical production levels. The country’s mining and metals infrastructure needs investment, operational discipline and credible long-term governance.

However, the strategic logic is clear. If Venezuela can reopen parts of its extractive industry under workable investment frameworks, it could become a useful supplementary source for aluminium, nickel, ferrous products and gold.

For Mercuria, the opportunity is to move early. By securing offtake and building relationships before assets fully recover, the trader can gain access to material flows that may become more valuable as western supply chains diversify.

The broader metals market should watch whether these agreements lead to actual export volumes. The first test will be regulatory clearance, followed by financing, rehabilitation and shipment execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mercuria’s Venezuela agreements show that metals offtake is becoming a geopolitical instrument. The opportunity is large, but the real test will be whether Venezuela can rebuild reliable production and export systems after years of industrial decline.

 

Moil Manganese Ore Prices Fall as Indian Steel Demand Weakens

Moil, Manganese Ore

Moil manganese ore prices have been cut by 4% for May as weak downstream steel demand and sluggish export bookings pressure India’s manganese market. The state-owned producer reduced prices across ferro-grade ore, silico-grade ore and fines.

Moil manganese ore prices for ferro-grade material with manganese content of 44% and above, as well as below-44% material, were lowered by 4% from April levels. The cut follows a sharp 17.5% increase in April for ore below 44% manganese content.

Moil manganese ore prices for 25% and 30% silico-grade ore and fines were also reduced by 4% for May. The move reflects a softer market environment in which domestic buyers are cautious and export opportunities remain limited.

The price cut highlights a wider imbalance in India’s manganese ore chain. Lower export demand has pushed more material into the domestic market, creating surplus supply across major trading hubs.

Weak Steel Demand Pressures Ferro-Grade Ore

Ferro-grade manganese ore demand remains tied closely to steel and ferro-alloy production. When steel demand weakens, alloy producers reduce feedstock buying and ore prices come under pressure.

India’s downstream steel market has been sluggish, limiting demand for manganese alloys and the ore used to produce them. This has made buyers more cautious about restocking, especially after the April price increase.

The 4% reduction is therefore a market-clearing move. Moil is adjusting prices to reflect weaker consumer appetite and rising domestic availability.

Export weakness has added further pressure. Reduced overseas bookings mean more ore is staying inside India, increasing competition among suppliers and traders.

This domestic oversupply is especially important for ferro-grade ore. Alloy producers can delay purchases when they expect further weakness, which slows market activity and reinforces downward pressure.

Higher Output Adds to Domestic Supply Overhang

Moil’s production has continued to rise despite weaker demand. The company produced around 164,000t of manganese ore in March 2026, up from 159,000t a year earlier.

Full-year output for April 2025-March 2026 reached 1.9mn t, compared with 1.8mn t in the previous fiscal year. This higher supply has entered a market already facing softer domestic and export demand.

The result is a supply overhang across key trading hubs. Even if production growth is modest, weaker buying can quickly create surplus conditions in the manganese ore market.

For alloy producers, lower ore prices may ease cost pressure. But the benefit depends on whether ferro-manganese and silico-manganese demand recovers enough to support production margins.

For Moil, the challenge is balancing output growth with market absorption. Higher production supports volume targets, but weak demand forces price adjustments when inventories rise.

The May price cut therefore sends a clear signal. India’s manganese ore market needs stronger steel and alloy demand before pricing power can return.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moil’s price cut shows that India’s manganese market is being driven by demand weakness, not raw material scarcity. Until steel and export bookings improve, higher mine output will continue to weigh on ore pricing.

ATI Aerospace and Defense Demand Lifts 2026 Guidance

ATI

ATI aerospace and defense demand strengthened in the first quarter, prompting the specialty alloys manufacturer to raise its full-year earnings outlook. The Texas-based company lifted its 2026 adjusted profit guidance by $35mn to $1.01bn-1.06bn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand was strongest in jet engine materials, defence alloys and missile-related products. The company exceeded the high end of its first-quarter forecast by nearly $7mn, reporting adjusted profit of $232mn.

ATI aerospace and defense demand shows that high-performance metals remain central to the aircraft production ramp and defence replenishment cycle. Titanium, nickel-based alloys, isothermal forgings, zirconium and hafnium are all tied to programmes where qualification, lead times and supply reliability matter.

Quarterly profit rose by 20% on the year to nearly $120mn, while revenue increased by 6.2% to almost $1.2bn.

Jet Engine Materials Keep Specialty Alloy Lead Times Tight

Commercial jet engine sales rose by 12% on the year to $472mn, making the segment ATI’s largest product category. The company expects mid-teens growth in jet engine sales this year.

Demand is being driven by original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket service providers. Both need reliable access to specialty alloys and isothermal forgings as engine production and repair activity expand.

This is strategically important because jet engines consume some of the most demanding materials in the aerospace supply chain. Nickel-based superalloys, titanium alloys and premium-quality forgings must meet strict performance standards under heat, stress and fatigue conditions.

ATI is also working to qualify its new electron-beam furnace for premium-quality titanium at its Richland, Washington facility. This material is used in rotor-grade engine parts.

Approval of the furnace would help reduce pressure on ATI’s other premium-quality titanium melting operations. Some lead times for this material are now close to two years.

That lead-time signal matters. Aerospace buyers are not only chasing capacity. They are trying to secure qualified melt routes for materials that cannot be easily substituted.

Commercial airframe sales moved lower in the first quarter, falling by 9.3% to nearly $187mn. Airframers and OEMs continued drawing down internal stocks of raw materials and components.

However, ATI expects full-year airframe sales to grow by mid-to-upper single digits, with demand backloaded into the second half as inventories normalise. This should support stronger sales of standard-quality titanium used in structural aircraft components.

The company also expects much stronger titanium sales growth in 2027, based on long-term order patterns and customer production plans.

Defence Orders Strengthen Zirconium, Hafnium and Missile Materials

Defence sales rose by 9.3% on the year to $139mn in the first quarter. ATI expects full-year defence revenue to rise by low-to-mid teens from 2025 levels.

The company renewed a five-year, $1bn contract supporting the US Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This will drive continued demand for specialty alloys containing zirconium and hafnium.

Zirconium and hafnium are strategically important in nuclear and defence supply chains. Their use requires tight quality control, reliable processing and long-term customer qualification.

Missile-related demand also strengthened. ATI said first-quarter missile revenue doubled from a year earlier as contractors increased production and replenished munitions inventories.

The company supplies titanium and nickel products used in structural and propulsion applications for missile programmes, including Tomahawk, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.

Nickel-based and specialty alloys remained ATI’s largest revenue source, accounting for 49% of total sales in the quarter. Precision forgings, castings and components accounted for 20%, while titanium and titanium-based alloys represented 17%.

The mix shows ATI’s strategic position. The company is exposed to aerospace engine growth, defence replenishment, naval nuclear programmes and missile production, all of which depend on hard-to-qualify specialty metals.

ATI’s raised guidance therefore reflects more than a cyclical recovery. It points to structural demand for advanced materials across aerospace, defence and energy-security-related programmes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ATI’s guidance increase confirms that aerospace and defence demand is pushing pressure upstream into qualified melt capacity and specialty alloys. The real bottleneck is not generic metal supply, but premium titanium, nickel alloys, zirconium, hafnium and forgings that meet mission-critical specifications.

Nalco Record Profit Highlights India’s Aluminium Market Strength

Nalco

Nalco record profit in FY2025/26 shows how stronger production volumes, higher aluminium prices and improved operating efficiency lifted India’s state-owned aluminium producer to a new earnings high. The company reported profit of 58.16bn rupees for the year to March, up 9.2% from a year earlier.

Nalco record profit was supported by revenue growth of 6.3% to Rs178.43bn. In the final quarter of the financial year, profit rose by 7% to Rs17.18bn, while revenue increased by 7.9% to Rs51.03bn.

Nalco record profit also reflects stronger market realisations. Three-month aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange averaged $2,780/t through the financial year, up from $2,553/t in the previous year.

The result reinforces the importance of India’s aluminium value chain. Higher domestic metal sales and stable alumina output strengthen Nalco’s position as India expands infrastructure, power, transport, packaging and industrial manufacturing.

Record Aluminium Output Supports Domestic Demand

Nalco set new records for aluminium production and sales during the year. Cast aluminium production reached 472,000t, while aluminium sales totalled 474,000t.

Domestic sales reached a record 461,000t. This is strategically important because it shows that India’s internal aluminium demand remains strong enough to absorb most of Nalco’s output.

Aluminium consumption in India is tied to several structural growth sectors. Power transmission, construction, transport, packaging, electrical products and manufacturing all require more aluminium as industrial activity expands.

Higher domestic sales also reduce exposure to export volatility. For Nalco, a larger Indian customer base can improve sales stability when global trade flows are affected by tariffs, premiums or regional demand swings.

The production record also points to better operating execution. Higher volumes matter only when supported by plant reliability, cost discipline and stable raw material flows.

Nalco said stronger production, improved realisations and operating efficiency across business units drove the performance. That combination allowed the company to capture better market pricing while expanding output.

Alumina and Price Realisations Strengthen Earnings Base

Nalco also produced 2.3mn t of alumina hydrate and recorded 1.4mn t of alumina sales. Alumina remains central to the company’s integrated aluminium model.

Integrated alumina supply gives aluminium producers stronger cost control. It can also protect margins when external alumina markets tighten or when smelters face higher raw material costs.

The increase in LME aluminium prices was another major earnings driver. Higher benchmark prices improved realisations and helped lift profits even as cost pressures remained a risk across energy-intensive metal production.

For India’s aluminium sector, Nalco’s results show the value of scale and integration. Producers with bauxite, alumina and smelting capacity can benefit more directly when aluminium prices rise and domestic demand expands.

The company’s record performance also supports India’s broader industrial policy goals. Aluminium is essential for electrification, infrastructure, transport lightweighting, renewable energy equipment and downstream manufacturing.

Nalco’s challenge now is to sustain output discipline and margin strength if aluminium prices become more volatile. The market remains exposed to energy costs, global trade measures and supply disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nalco’s record profit shows that India’s aluminium market is gaining strength from domestic consumption, not only export opportunity. The strategic advantage will belong to producers that combine integrated alumina supply, reliable smelting operations and exposure to India’s expanding industrial base.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

Yunnan Germanium Recycling Project Targets Feedstock Security for Strategic Metal Supply

Germanium Scrap

Yunnan Germanium recycling project plans will strengthen China’s largest germanium producer’s control over feedstock as demand from downstream high-end manufacturing remains strategically important. The company plans to invest 200.66mn yuan in a fully automated facility to process germanium-bearing waste slag.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project will have capacity to process 150,000 t/yr of germanium-bearing waste slag. The company has not disclosed the construction timetable or launch date.

The Yunnan Germanium recycling project is designed to improve germanium resource utilisation and support raw material supply for downstream deep-processing products. This matters because germanium is a strategic minor metal used in defence, infrared optics, fibre optics, semiconductors and high-performance electronics.

The project also reflects a broader industry shift. Producers of critical and minor metals are increasingly trying to secure secondary feedstock as primary supply becomes more politically controlled and price volatility rises.

Recycling Capacity Reduces Dependence on External Raw Materials

Yunnan Germanium said partial reliance on externally sourced raw materials exposes it to germanium price volatility. Prices are influenced by global supply-demand conditions and demand from high-end manufacturing sectors.

The new recycling line should help reduce that exposure. By processing waste slag, the company can recover more germanium units from secondary material and support its downstream production chain.

This is strategically important because Yunnan Germanium already consumes significant germanium internally. In 2025, the company produced 29.7t of raw-material-grade germanium metal equivalent for external sales, excluding 68.95t used for internal consumption and third-party processing.

That internal use shows how the company is moving more material into higher-value products rather than selling all output into the merchant market. Recycling can strengthen that model by expanding available feedstock.

Yunnan Germanium also plans to diversify external suppliers of germanium-bearing waste slag. It will seek medium- to long-term supply agreements with quality provisions and emergency replenishment clauses.

The company also plans to build a raw material inventory reserve and a price-alert mechanism. It will adjust production and inventory strategies when germanium prices move by more than 10%.

These measures show a more disciplined approach to minor-metal procurement. In markets such as germanium, small disruptions can produce large price movements because supply is concentrated and liquidity is limited.

Export Controls Increase Strategic Value of Germanium Recovery

Germanium has become more strategically sensitive since China placed the metal under strict dual-use export controls in September 2023. China accounts for an estimated 60-70% of global germanium capacity.

This gives Chinese producers significant influence over global availability. It also makes domestic resource recovery more valuable, especially when export controls, defence demand and semiconductor-related applications increase policy attention.

Yunnan Germanium’s revenue rose to 1.07bn yuan in 2025 from 767mn yuan in 2024. Higher prices for key products, including raw-material-grade germanium, supported the increase despite lower external raw metal output.

The company’s recycling investment therefore supports both security and profitability. More stable feedstock access can improve operating flexibility when prices rise or external raw material supply tightens.

For downstream customers, the project may improve Yunnan Germanium’s ability to supply deeper-processed products. These include materials linked to optics, fibre communication, photovoltaics, infrared systems and compound semiconductors.

The broader market implication is clear. Germanium supply security will depend not only on mine output or primary production, but also on recycling, waste recovery, inventory control and long-term feedstock agreements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunnan Germanium’s recycling plan shows that strategic minor metals are moving toward closed-loop resource control. In germanium, the advantage will belong to producers that can combine primary supply, secondary recovery and downstream processing under one feedstock strategy.

Appalachian Lithium Reserves Could Strengthen US Domestic Supply Security

USGS

Appalachian lithium reserves could give the US a much larger domestic resource base than previously recognised, according to a new assessment from the US Geological Survey. The agency said the eastern US Appalachian region may contain enough undiscovered, economically recoverable lithium to replace 328 years of US imports at 2025 levels.

Appalachian lithium reserves are hosted in pegmatites, large-grained rocks similar to granite. The southern Appalachian region is estimated to contain 1.43mn t of lithium oxide, while the northern Appalachian region holds another 0.90mn t.

Appalachian lithium reserves matter because the US still depends heavily on imported lithium. The country has only one current lithium producer and relied on imports for more than half of its supply in 2025.

The assessment adds another possible domestic supply route alongside lithium brine projects in the Smackover formation. Together, these resources could reshape US lithium strategy if they can be converted into permitted, economic and commercially scalable projects.

Pegmatite Resources Add a Hard-Rock Lithium Option

The Appalachian assessment points to hard-rock lithium potential in the eastern US. Pegmatite-hosted lithium is different from brine-based production because it usually requires mining, concentration and chemical conversion.

This gives the US another possible supply pathway. Hard-rock projects can produce spodumene concentrate, which can then be converted into lithium chemicals for batteries, energy storage and industrial uses.

Albemarle is already planning a lithium concentrator facility at Kings Mountain, North Carolina. The project is designed to produce 420,000 t/yr of lithium concentrate from spodumene.

That project is important because it could help rebuild a US hard-rock lithium supply chain. Domestic spodumene production would reduce reliance on foreign raw material and support future US conversion capacity.

However, resource estimates alone do not guarantee supply. Appalachian lithium projects would still need exploration, permitting, mine development, processing investment, environmental approvals and downstream customer qualification.

The strategic significance is still clear. The US lithium conversation is expanding beyond Nevada brines and western projects into eastern hard-rock resources with long-term supply potential.

Smackover Brines and Appalachian Pegmatites Broaden US Lithium Strategy

The Appalachian estimate follows earlier USGS work on the Smackover formation in southwest Arkansas. In 2024, the agency assessed that Smackover brines contain 5mn-19mn t of lithium, although it did not define economically recoverable volumes.

Several companies, including Equinor, ExxonMobil, EnergyX and Standard Lithium, are developing lithium projects in the Smackover region. Some are targeting commercial output around 2027.

The Smackover and Appalachian resource bases are strategically different but complementary. Smackover projects depend on brine extraction and processing technologies, while Appalachian projects would likely depend on hard-rock mining and spodumene concentration.

This diversification matters for US supply security. A lithium strategy based on multiple geological sources is more resilient than one dependent on a single basin, technology or company.

The US will still need processing capacity. Mining lithium ore or extracting lithium from brine does not automatically create battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide.

That midstream gap remains the critical issue. Domestic resources must be connected to refining, chemical conversion, permitting, infrastructure and offtake agreements before they can reduce import dependence.

For battery manufacturers, the Appalachian assessment offers a long-term signal. More domestic resource potential could support future supply chains for electric vehicles, grid storage and defence-related battery applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Appalachian lithium assessment is a resource-security signal, not an immediate supply solution. The US has the geology, but the decisive bottleneck will be converting resources into permitted mines, concentrators and battery-grade lithium chemicals.

France Fossil Fuel Roadmap Sets Clear Timetable for Energy Transition

Fossil fuel roadmap

France fossil fuel roadmap marks an important step in turning climate targets into a structured energy transition plan. The roadmap does not introduce new targets, but it brings France’s energy policies, electrification strategy and climate goals into one document.

France fossil fuel roadmap is significant because it gives a clear schedule for reducing fossil fuel dependence. France aims to cut fossil fuels from around 60% of final energy consumption in 2023 to 40% in 2030 and 30% in 2035.

France fossil fuel roadmap also sets long-term phase-out dates for coal, oil and natural gas. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, while targeting net zero emissions by mid-century.

The roadmap matters beyond France. It gives other governments a practical example of how fossil fuel transition planning can connect emissions targets, energy security, electrification and industrial strategy.

Electrification Becomes the Core of Fossil Fuel Reduction

France’s roadmap links fossil fuel reduction directly to electrification. The country’s new electrification plan, released in April, now sits alongside its national low-carbon strategy and wider climate targets.

This connection is important because fossil fuel phase-out cannot happen only through policy declarations. It requires more electricity, cleaner generation, stronger grids, electric heating, electric transport, industrial efficiency and lower-carbon manufacturing.

France also has an energy security reason to move faster. More than 95% of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported, exposing households and industry to external price shocks, shipping risks and geopolitical disruption.

Reducing imported fossil fuel use therefore serves two goals. It lowers emissions and reduces exposure to volatile global energy markets.

The roadmap reiterates France’s target to cut gross greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. It also supports the longer-term objective of net zero emissions in 2050.

France’s remaining two coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. This makes coal the easiest part of the transition, while oil and natural gas will require deeper changes across transport, buildings and industry.

For metals and materials markets, the roadmap points to rising demand for the physical infrastructure behind electrification. Copper, aluminium, electrical steel, transformers, batteries, rare earth magnets, grid equipment and power electronics will all become more important as France cuts fossil fuel use.

The policy also strengthens the case for clean energy investment. A clearer timetable can help utilities, manufacturers, grid operators and industrial users plan capital spending around future energy demand.

Fossil Fuel Transition Planning Gains Global Momentum

Think tanks welcomed the French roadmap because few countries address coal, oil and gas together under one transition framework. They noted that France did not raise ambition, but still provided a useful model by setting timelines and aligning policies.

This matters because global climate diplomacy is moving from broad pledges toward implementation. The first global stocktake agreed at Cop 28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, but many countries still lack detailed national plans.

France’s roadmap gives that commitment a national structure. It shows how governments can translate climate summit language into domestic policy sequencing.

The document also creates pressure on fossil fuel-producing countries. If demand for fossil fuels declines over the coming decades, producer economies will need diversification plans, new industries and alternative sources of public revenue.

Colombia’s draft fossil fuel transition roadmap shows that this discussion is widening. The country aims to cut primary fossil fuel demand by 90% over 2026-50 while expanding energy access and managing dependence on oil and coal exports.

The EU is also moving in the same direction, even if its language focuses more on emissions reduction than explicit fossil fuel phase-out. The bloc targets net zero emissions by 2050, a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and a 90% reduction by 2040 compared with 1990 levels.

The practical effect is similar. Deep emissions cuts cannot happen without a major reduction in fossil fuel use.

For industry, this creates a long-term signal. Companies should expect more electrification, stronger carbon rules, higher clean-energy investment and greater pressure to reduce fossil fuel exposure in operations and supply chains.

The strategic issue is execution. Roadmaps help, but governments still need permitting reform, grid investment, clean power capacity, financing, industrial incentives and raw material supply security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

France’s roadmap shows that fossil fuel transition is becoming an infrastructure plan, not just a climate slogan. The industrial winners will be countries that connect phase-out timelines with grids, clean power, critical minerals and manufacturing capacity.

HyProMag Rare Earth Magnet Recycling Plant Opens in Germany

HyProMag

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling has moved into commercial-scale production in Germany after the company opened a new recycling and manufacturing plant in Pforzheim. The facility strengthens Europe’s effort to build a circular rare earth magnet supply chain outside China.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling will focus on neodymium-iron-boron magnets and alloys. The plant will start with 100 t/yr of production capacity, with plans to increase output to 350 t/yr.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling is strategically important because NdFeB magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, electronics, defence systems and industrial motors. Europe needs more local magnet capacity as China continues to dominate rare earth processing and magnet production.

The plant is permitted for production of up to 750 t/yr. HyProMag and parent company Mkango Resources are evaluating a scale-up to that level over the next three years.

HPMS Technology Targets Magnet Scrap Recovery

The Pforzheim plant will use Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap technology, known as HPMS. The process was developed at the University of Birmingham and is designed to recover rare earth magnets from scrap streams more efficiently.

This technology matters because magnet recycling can reduce dependence on mined rare earth feedstock and conventional separation routes. It can also shorten supply chains by recovering material already embedded in end-of-life products and industrial scrap.

Recycled NdFeB magnets can support European manufacturers that need secure and traceable supply. Automotive, wind power, electronics and defence customers increasingly want material with clearer origin and lower supply-chain risk.

The initial 100 t/yr capacity is modest compared with China’s magnet industry. However, the strategic value lies in proving that commercial-scale recycling and magnet manufacturing can operate inside Europe.

The planned expansion to 350 t/yr, and potentially 750 t/yr, would make the site more meaningful for regional supply. It would also help Europe develop technical expertise in magnet scrap collection, processing, alloying and remanufacturing.

EU Critical Raw Materials Strategy Gains Recycling Base

HyProMag’s German plant fits directly into Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The EU wants to reduce dependence on imported rare earth materials by supporting domestic mining, separation, recycling and manufacturing capacity.

Mkango Resources adds another layer to this strategy. The Canadian company owns a rare earths project in Malawi and a proposed rare earths separation plant in Poland.

Both projects have been selected as strategic projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. This gives Mkango a broader position across upstream rare earth resources, midstream separation and downstream magnet recycling.

The German plant therefore is not just a standalone recycling facility. It could become part of a wider European rare earth value chain connecting African feedstock, European separation and recycled magnet production.

For Europe, this model is important. Mining alone will not solve rare earth dependence if separation, metal making, alloying and magnet manufacturing remain concentrated elsewhere.

HyProMag’s Pforzheim facility helps address one of the most difficult parts of the chain: turning rare earth scrap into usable magnet products. If the company scales successfully, it could support a more resilient European magnet ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HyProMag’s plant shows that Europe’s rare earth strategy is moving from policy ambition into industrial execution. The key test will be whether recycling capacity can scale fast enough to supply real magnet demand in EVs, wind power and defence.

South32 Manganese Ore Export Prices Fall as China Demand Weakens

South32 Manganese Ore

South32 manganese ore export prices to China have fallen for June shipments as weak alloy demand, ample port inventories and cautious buying pressure the import market. The Australian diversified metals producer lowered offers for both Australian and South African manganese ore, according to Chinese importers.

South32 manganese ore export prices for Australian 42% lumpy ore fell to $5.40/mtu cif China for June delivery. This was down by $0.50/mtu from May.

South32 also reduced its offer for South African 37% manganese ore to $5/mtu cif China. This was down by $0.40/mtu from the previous month.

South32 manganese ore export prices are an important signal for the wider manganese chain because China remains the largest global buyer of seaborne ore. When Chinese alloy plants slow purchases, overseas miners often need to adjust export offers to maintain sales momentum.

Chinese Alloy Weakness Cuts Restocking Appetite

Chinese importers have shown limited interest in restocking manganese ore because inventories remain sufficient and alloy prices are weakening. This has reduced spot buying urgency before the Labour Day holiday on 1-5 May.

Many alloy plants postponed ore feedstock purchases while waiting for clearer market direction after the holiday. This cautious behaviour has weakened the negotiating position of overseas ore suppliers.

The pressure is also visible in Chinese port prices. Australian 44-46% lumpy manganese ore fell to 43-47 yuan/mtu delivery ex quay on 28 April, down from 47-50 yuan/mtu on 31 March.

The decline shows that domestic buyers are not only resisting new import offers. They are also repricing available port material lower as downstream demand fails to improve.

Manganese ore demand is closely linked to ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are used in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, deoxidation and performance.

When steel consumption slows, alloy plants reduce purchasing activity. This immediately affects ore demand because manganese alloy producers are the main consumers of imported ore.

Steel Demand Remains the Main Constraint

The deeper issue is weak steel demand in China. Slower economic growth and subdued construction activity have limited recovery in steel consumption, leaving alloy producers cautious about raw material buying.

Without a stronger steel recovery, manganese alloy prices are likely to remain under pressure. This limits the ability of alloy plants to pay higher ore prices, even when miners try to defend margins.

South32’s price cut also reflects wider seaborne competition. Mining firms outside China need to respond when Chinese buyers have enough stock and are unwilling to chase cargoes.

Australian high-grade lumpy ore usually commands stronger interest because of its quality and processing value. However, even higher-grade material can weaken when alloy margins are poor and port inventories are sufficient.

South African ore also remains exposed to Chinese demand swings. Lower-grade material can face sharper price pressure when buyers reduce procurement and focus only on immediate needs.

For the manganese market, the June price cut suggests that miners are prioritising volume discipline and customer access over holding elevated offers. The next price direction will depend on whether Chinese alloy plants return after the holiday with real restocking demand.

If steel demand remains weak, manganese ore prices could face further downside pressure. If alloy prices stabilise and inventories fall, importers may resume buying, but recovery is likely to be gradual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s price cut shows that the manganese market is being driven by demand absorption, not supply shortage. Until Chinese steel and alloy demand improves, seaborne manganese ore suppliers will remain exposed to cautious restocking and lower port prices.

Yongshan Lithium Molybdenum Output Falls as Concentrate Supply Tightens

Yongshan Lithium

Yongshan Lithium molybdenum output declined in 2025 as tight molybdenum concentrate supply reduced production of ferro-molybdenum alloy and roasted concentrate. The Jilin-based metals producer reported lower output and sales across its molybdenum business.

Yongshan Lithium molybdenum output fell despite firmer molybdenum prices and continued demand from high-quality special steel. Feedstock availability became the main constraint, limiting the company’s ability to maintain production volumes.

Yongshan Lithium molybdenum output reflects a wider pressure point in China’s molybdenum market. Alloy producers need concentrate feedstock, but tight supply and higher unroasted concentrate prices increased procurement pressure during the year.

The company, also known as Jixiang Molybdenum or New China Dragon Molybdenum, produced 17,631t of ferro-molybdenum alloy in 2025, down 22% from a year earlier. Sales fell by 23% to 18,018t.

Concentrate Tightness Hits Ferro-Molybdenum Production

Yongshan’s ferro-molybdenum alloy production was directly affected by constrained concentrate supply. The company purchased concentrate and alloy from other plants during the year to support regular production and sales.

This shows how dependent ferro-molybdenum producers remain on reliable upstream feedstock. Even when downstream demand is firm, alloy plants cannot maintain output without stable concentrate availability.

Roasted molybdenum concentrate output fell more sharply. Yongshan produced 29,679t in 2025, down 34% from a year earlier, because unroasted concentrate feedstock prices trended higher.

Sales of roasted concentrate dropped by 55% to 6,894t. The steep fall suggests that more material was needed internally or that market conditions made external sales less attractive.

Molybdenum concentrate is the key input for ferro-molybdenum, which is used in special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment, chemical processing, aerospace and defence-related applications. Tight concentrate supply therefore affects the entire alloy value chain.

Higher Prices Support Market but Not Volumes

China’s ferro-molybdenum market remained supported by tight feedstock and stronger consumption from high-quality special steel producers. Average domestic prices for 60% ferro-molybdenum alloy rose by 5.2% in 2025 to 246,307 yuan/t ex-works.

Roasted concentrate prices also increased. Average prices for 57% grade roasted concentrate rose by 6.1% year on year to 3,939 yuan/mtu.

The price gains show that molybdenum demand remained resilient in higher-value steel applications. However, Yongshan’s results also show that higher prices do not automatically translate into higher output when feedstock supply is constrained.

The company plans to optimise its molybdenum product structure in 2026. It aims to phase out low-margin and low-value-added products while advancing energy-saving and cost-reduction initiatives.

This is a logical response to a tighter raw material environment. When concentrate is expensive and difficult to secure, producers must prioritise higher-margin products and improve operating efficiency.

Yongshan formally changed its name from Jixiang Molybdenum in July 2024, reflecting a stronger focus on the lithium industry. Even so, molybdenum remains an important part of its industrial metals base.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yongshan’s weaker molybdenum output shows that China’s alloy chain is being constrained upstream, not only by end-use demand. In a tight concentrate market, the competitive advantage will shift toward producers with secure feedstock, higher-value alloy products and stronger cost control.

Lithium-Ion Battery Copper Foil Shipments Surge as Ultra-Thin Products Gain Share

Copper Foil

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments rose sharply in 2025 as global battery production expanded and manufacturers shifted toward thinner materials to reduce copper costs. Global shipments reached 1.302mn t, up 41.7% from 2024, according to Chinese research institute EV Tank.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil demand remains closely tied to electric vehicle and energy storage growth. Copper foil is a key current collector in lithium-ion batteries, making it essential to cell performance, energy density and manufacturing cost.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments were dominated by China, which accounted for 82.9% of global deliveries in 2025. EV Tank expects global shipments to reach 2.615mn t by 2030, implying continued expansion as battery output scales.

The product mix changed quickly during the year. The share of 8μm foil declined, while 6μm remained the mainstream product and accounted for more than 70% of total shipments.

Ultra-Thin Foil Gains Momentum on Copper Cost Pressure

Ultra-thin copper foil gained share as battery producers looked for ways to reduce copper input costs. Persistently high global copper prices pushed cell manufacturers to use thinner foil while maintaining battery performance.

The combined share of 5μm and 4.5μm ultra-thin foil rose to 24% in 2025. This is a major shift for a material category that requires tighter production control, better surface quality and stronger consistency.

Thinner copper foil can help reduce battery weight and improve energy density. It also lowers the amount of copper used per cell, which becomes increasingly important when copper prices remain elevated.

EV Tank expects 5μm and thinner foil to become a key material for high-end batteries. This reflects the industry’s move toward lighter, higher-energy-density cell designs.

However, thinner foil also raises manufacturing difficulty. Producers must control pinholes, tensile strength, elongation, surface roughness and coating compatibility more precisely.

That technical barrier could separate higher-end suppliers from lower-cost producers. As battery customers shift toward thinner grades, qualification and process reliability will become more important than simple capacity.

China Leads Supply as Competition Intensifies

China’s 82.9% share of global shipments shows its dominant role in battery copper foil supply. The country has built large-scale capacity around its lithium-ion battery ecosystem, supported by domestic EV, energy storage and cell manufacturing growth.

Competition intensified in 2025 as the market recovered and producers brought earlier-built capacity on line. This created a more fluid ranking among suppliers.

Longdian Wason ranked first with a 12.2% market share. Huachuang New Material followed after capacity ramp-ups lifted output and sales.

Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology ranked third and fourth, respectively. Seven companies in the top 10 changed positions during the year, showing how quickly capacity, customer access and product mix are reshaping the sector.

Battery makers also increased procurement from second-tier suppliers to improve supply stability. This suggests buyers are trying to diversify supplier bases rather than rely only on leading producers.

For copper markets, the trend is strategically important. Battery copper foil growth creates a direct link between copper demand and battery technology. But the move toward ultra-thin foil also means battery growth will not translate into copper demand on a simple one-to-one basis.

The sector is therefore entering a more technical phase. Volume growth remains strong, but material intensity, foil thickness, supplier qualification and copper price pressure will all shape future demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper foil market shows how battery growth can lift copper demand while also forcing material thrift. High copper prices are pushing battery makers toward thinner foil, making technology and process control as important as raw capacity.