EU Car Emissions Policy Divides States as 2035 and ETS 2 Battles Intensify

EU, ETS

EU car emissions policy is becoming a major fault line between member states as governments debate how much flexibility automakers should receive after 2035 and how quickly carbon pricing should expand into road transport and buildings.

France, Spain and Sweden defended continued electrification, while Poland called for greater flexibility in vehicle CO2 rules and further changes to ETS 2. The European Commission’s current proposal would replace the existing 100% tailpipe-emissions reduction requirement for new cars and vans from 2035 with a 90% reduction, with the remaining emissions compensated through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels. 

EU car emissions policy increasingly matters for metals markets because the regulatory outcome will influence the pace of EV adoption, internal-combustion vehicle production and material demand across batteries, copper, aluminium and automotive steels.

At the same time, disagreements over ETS 2 show that Europe is still negotiating how quickly consumers and transport markets should absorb the cost of decarbonisation.

2035 Flexibility Could Reshape Automotive Metals Demand

The Commission’s proposed flexibility would allow plug-in hybrids, range extenders, mild hybrids and some internal-combustion vehicles to remain in the market beyond 2035, provided manufacturers meet the wider emissions framework. 

That matters because the automotive material mix changes significantly depending on powertrain.

Battery electric vehicles typically require larger battery packs and more copper-intensive electrical systems. They directly support demand for lithium, graphite and selected nickel and manganese products depending on battery chemistry.

Hybrids require much smaller batteries, reducing battery mineral intensity per vehicle. However, they still consume more copper and electrical components than conventional combustion vehicles.

Continued ICE production would also sustain demand for metals and components linked to traditional powertrains, including speciality steels, aluminium castings and exhaust-system materials.

Low-carbon steel is becoming another strategic element. Under the Commission proposal, EU-made low-carbon steel could contribute to compensating the remaining emissions permitted after 2035. 

This could create a new commercial advantage for European steelmakers investing in lower-carbon production. Automotive decarbonisation would then depend not only on the vehicle powertrain but also on the embedded emissions of its materials.

The industrial argument is therefore becoming more complex than EV versus ICE. Europe is increasingly debating whether decarbonisation should be measured through tailpipe emissions alone or through a broader combination of powertrain, fuels and lower-carbon materials.

ETS 2 Debate Highlights Cost of Europe’s Transition

The political divide extends beyond cars to carbon pricing.

ETS 2 is designed to expand emissions trading to fuels used in buildings, road transport and additional sectors. Its full launch is currently scheduled for 2028, while EU institutions have also been strengthening its market stability reserve to reduce excessive price volatility. 

Poland is pushing for stronger mechanisms to control carbon prices and has argued for further flexibility around implementation.

The issue is important because ETS 2 could eventually increase the carbon cost associated with road fuels and heating. Governments are therefore balancing emissions objectives against household costs, inflation and industrial competitiveness.

For metals and manufacturing, carbon market design has indirect but significant consequences. Faster electrification supports grids, charging infrastructure and electrical metals demand. Slower implementation could extend fossil fuel consumption and delay part of that investment cycle.

Germany has meanwhile focused on the longer-term availability of allowances under the existing ETS, highlighting concern over how rapidly the emissions cap declines as Europe approaches its 2040 climate targets.

These debates show that Europe has broadly agreed on the direction of travel but not on the speed or industrial structure of the transition.

The eventual policy mix will influence where manufacturers invest, which automotive technologies survive and how quickly European material supply chains need to adapt.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s automotive debate is shifting from a simple ICE-versus-EV argument toward a contest over technology, carbon pricing and material origin. For metals markets, the final policy balance will determine how quickly demand moves toward batteries, copper and low-carbon steel.

EU Mexico Trade Agreement Opens Clean Tech and Critical Materials Opportunities

EU, Mexico

EU Mexico trade agreement signing marks a major update to a commercial relationship already worth around €100bn/yr in goods and services. The revised deal aims to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers while creating new opportunities in clean technology, critical raw materials and agri-food trade.

EU Mexico trade agreement provisions will eliminate almost all high Mexican tariffs on EU imports. The affected sectors include machinery, mineral fuels, cars, car parts and a wide range of agri-food products.

EU Mexico trade agreement rules also include legally binding commitments on environmental protection and climate change. This gives the deal a strategic industrial angle beyond conventional tariff reduction.

The interim trade agreement is expected to move faster than the wider modernised global agreement. It needs European Parliament approval and qualified-majority approval from EU member states, rather than ratification by all 27 countries.

Clean Technology and Raw Materials Gain Strategic Relevance

The agreement could strengthen EU-Mexico cooperation in clean technology and critical raw materials. This matters as Europe seeks more diversified supply chains for energy transition equipment, electric vehicles, industrial machinery and advanced manufacturing.

Mexico is already a major manufacturing base linked to North American automotive and industrial supply chains. Better EU access could support machinery, components and clean technology exports into a market positioned between Europe and the US.

The deal also includes strict rules of origin, including for electric vehicles. EU officials said these rules are designed to prevent circumvention and avoid the agreement becoming a backdoor for Chinese production.

That detail is important. As tariffs, subsidies and local-content rules reshape global EV trade, rules of origin are becoming a core tool of industrial policy.

For European manufacturers, clearer access to Mexico may support exports of vehicles, parts, machinery and clean technology systems. For Mexican producers, greater access to the EU could strengthen trade in food, consumer products and selected industrial goods.

Tariff Cuts Combine With Climate and Circular Economy Commitments

Mexico will remove tariffs on key European exports including pork, dairy, cereals, fruit and pasta. Sensitive products will receive limited access through tariff-rate quotas.

The agreement also gives EU exporters broader quota access for dairy, beef, poultry and pork products. In return, Mexican producers will gain more liberalised access to the EU for products including coffee, fruit, chocolate and agave syrup.

Alongside the trade deal, both sides signed a circular economy declaration covering climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, including plastics. This adds sustainability language to the commercial framework.

The agreement requires both parties to uphold international climate treaties, including the Paris Agreement. It also includes a dedicated dispute settlement procedure.

For metals and industrial supply chains, the wider message is clear. Trade agreements are increasingly combining market access, climate obligations, origin rules and supply-chain security.

The EU is using trade policy to support clean technology, critical raw materials cooperation and industrial competitiveness. Mexico gains deeper access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets while strengthening its role in global manufacturing networks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU-Mexico deal shows how trade policy is becoming a supply-chain security instrument. The rules of origin for electric vehicles may prove as important as the tariff cuts, especially as Europe tries to protect clean technology markets from indirect Chinese competition.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

HyProMag Rare Earth Magnet Recycling Plant Opens in Germany

HyProMag

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling has moved into commercial-scale production in Germany after the company opened a new recycling and manufacturing plant in Pforzheim. The facility strengthens Europe’s effort to build a circular rare earth magnet supply chain outside China.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling will focus on neodymium-iron-boron magnets and alloys. The plant will start with 100 t/yr of production capacity, with plans to increase output to 350 t/yr.

HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling is strategically important because NdFeB magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, electronics, defence systems and industrial motors. Europe needs more local magnet capacity as China continues to dominate rare earth processing and magnet production.

The plant is permitted for production of up to 750 t/yr. HyProMag and parent company Mkango Resources are evaluating a scale-up to that level over the next three years.

HPMS Technology Targets Magnet Scrap Recovery

The Pforzheim plant will use Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap technology, known as HPMS. The process was developed at the University of Birmingham and is designed to recover rare earth magnets from scrap streams more efficiently.

This technology matters because magnet recycling can reduce dependence on mined rare earth feedstock and conventional separation routes. It can also shorten supply chains by recovering material already embedded in end-of-life products and industrial scrap.

Recycled NdFeB magnets can support European manufacturers that need secure and traceable supply. Automotive, wind power, electronics and defence customers increasingly want material with clearer origin and lower supply-chain risk.

The initial 100 t/yr capacity is modest compared with China’s magnet industry. However, the strategic value lies in proving that commercial-scale recycling and magnet manufacturing can operate inside Europe.

The planned expansion to 350 t/yr, and potentially 750 t/yr, would make the site more meaningful for regional supply. It would also help Europe develop technical expertise in magnet scrap collection, processing, alloying and remanufacturing.

EU Critical Raw Materials Strategy Gains Recycling Base

HyProMag’s German plant fits directly into Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The EU wants to reduce dependence on imported rare earth materials by supporting domestic mining, separation, recycling and manufacturing capacity.

Mkango Resources adds another layer to this strategy. The Canadian company owns a rare earths project in Malawi and a proposed rare earths separation plant in Poland.

Both projects have been selected as strategic projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. This gives Mkango a broader position across upstream rare earth resources, midstream separation and downstream magnet recycling.

The German plant therefore is not just a standalone recycling facility. It could become part of a wider European rare earth value chain connecting African feedstock, European separation and recycled magnet production.

For Europe, this model is important. Mining alone will not solve rare earth dependence if separation, metal making, alloying and magnet manufacturing remain concentrated elsewhere.

HyProMag’s Pforzheim facility helps address one of the most difficult parts of the chain: turning rare earth scrap into usable magnet products. If the company scales successfully, it could support a more resilient European magnet ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

HyProMag’s plant shows that Europe’s rare earth strategy is moving from policy ambition into industrial execution. The key test will be whether recycling capacity can scale fast enough to supply real magnet demand in EVs, wind power and defence.

Zhongke Anode Material Sales Surge as Energy Storage Demand Accelerates

Zhongke

Zhongke anode material sales rose sharply in 2025 as China’s lithium-ion battery sector expanded across new energy vehicles and power storage. Hunan Zhongke Electric sold 363,253t of anode materials during the year, up 62% from 2024.

Zhongke anode material sales were supported by strong downstream demand and higher operating rates. The company’s output increased by 66% to 378,469t, reflecting a rapid scale-up in response to battery market growth.

Zhongke anode material sales also lifted revenue. Revenue from anode materials rose by 60% to 7.99bn yuan, broadly in line with the increase in shipment volumes.

The result shows how anode materials remain one of the key beneficiaries of battery expansion. Demand is no longer driven only by electric vehicles. Grid storage, industrial storage and AI-related power demand are becoming increasingly important.

Capacity Utilisation Tightens as China Battery Demand Expands

Zhongke’s anode material capacity reached 348,683 t/yr in 2025, up 46% from a year earlier. The increase followed equipment and technology upgrades across its production base.

Capacity utilisation rose to 108.6% from 95.7% in 2024. This shows that Zhongke was operating above nameplate capacity as demand outpaced available production capability.

The company is now expanding further. A third-phase project at its Zhaotong site in Yunnan province is under construction and will add 100,000 t/yr of anode material capacity by the end of 2026.

Zhaotong has become a key growth platform. The first phase, with 15,000 t/yr of capacity, started production in April 2020. The second phase, with 100,000 t/yr of capacity, began operations in March 2024.

Zhongke is also planning a 300,000 t/yr anode material complex in Luzhou, Sichuan province. This would further strengthen its position in China’s graphite anode supply chain.

The expansion reflects a broader industry trend. Anode producers are adding capacity to serve battery makers that need reliable supply, stable quality and lower-cost materials for high-volume cell production.

Overseas Expansion Targets Storage and Non-China Customers

Zhongke is also building a 100,000 t/yr anode material plant in Tangier, Morocco. The project targets customers outside China and reflects the growing need for regionalised battery material supply chains.

Morocco offers strategic value because it is close to European markets and has become more attractive for battery-related investment. For Chinese anode producers, overseas capacity can help serve customers facing localisation, trade and supply-chain security requirements.

Energy storage is becoming a major long-term demand driver. Global energy storage battery shipments reached 651.5GWh in 2025, up 76.2% from a year earlier. Chinese companies accounted for 614.7GWh, or 94.4% of global shipments.

EV Tank expects global energy storage battery shipments to exceed 2TWh by 2030. If this forecast materialises, anode material demand will continue rising across China and overseas markets.

Policy is also supporting growth. China is moving new energy storage from mandatory allocation toward a more market-oriented system, including capacity pricing support for independent grid-side storage.

AI data centres are adding another demand layer. Rapid growth in electricity consumption from AI infrastructure is increasing the need for power storage, grid stability and backup capacity.

Europe is also expanding storage under energy security strategies. EU member states installed 27.1GWh of new battery energy storage systems in 2025, up 45% from the previous year.

For Zhongke, this demand mix supports a larger and more international anode strategy. The company is positioning itself to serve China’s dominant battery ecosystem while preparing for overseas demand linked to storage, EVs and grid resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zhongke’s growth shows that anode materials are moving from an EV-driven market into a broader energy infrastructure market. The next competitive phase will depend on overseas localisation, graphite supply security and the ability to serve storage demand outside China.

LB Titanium Dioxide Output Falls as Sponge and Battery Materials Expand

LB Titanium

LB titanium dioxide output fell in 2025 as weaker prices, slower demand and rising trade barriers pressured the global pigment market. China’s largest titanium producer reported titanium dioxide production of 1.28mn t, down 1.5% from a year earlier.

LB titanium dioxide output declined even as sales edged higher to 1.26mn t. Domestic sales accounted for 45% of volumes, while international sales made up 55%, showing that overseas markets remain critical to the company’s TiO2 business.

LB titanium dioxide output came under pressure from structural oversupply. New capacity entered the market, prices weakened and several domestic producers cut operating rates to protect margins.

The company also pointed to anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and the Eurasian Economic Union, along with higher US tariffs on Chinese material. These measures have fragmented trade flows and made the global titanium dioxide market more difficult for Chinese exporters.

Titanium Sponge Offers a Stronger Counterweight

LB’s titanium sponge business moved in the opposite direction. Titanium sponge output rose by 2.3% on the year to 71,300t, while sales increased by 0.9% to 67,500t.

The stronger sponge result matters because titanium sponge sits closer to aerospace, industrial titanium mill products and high-performance alloy supply chains. It gives LB a more diversified titanium platform beyond pigment markets.

Titanium sponge prices were also firmer. Domestic 99.7% grade sponge prices averaged 49,665 yuan/t ex-works in 2025, up from 48,270 yuan/t a year earlier.

LB has 80,000 t/yr of titanium sponge capacity, the largest globally. That scale gives the company a major position in a market where feedstock security, product quality and downstream demand from titanium processors remain strategically important.

Titanium concentrate output fell by 3% to 1.45mn t, but LB did not sell concentrate externally. All concentrate was consumed internally to produce titanium dioxide and titanium sponge.

This internal use highlights the company’s integrated titanium value chain. LB can direct feedstock toward different downstream products depending on market conditions, although weak TiO2 demand still affects overall profitability.

Iron ore concentrate output fell more sharply, dropping by 18% to 3.04mn t. Sales decreased by 2.1% to 2.94mn t, showing softer performance in another mineral by-product stream.

Iron Phosphate Growth Signals Battery Materials Diversification

LB’s battery materials business showed much stronger momentum. Iron phosphate output jumped by 72% to 97,600t, while sales rose by 59% to 96,000t.

The growth was driven by firm demand from the lithium-ion battery sector. Iron phosphate is a key precursor for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, which are widely used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

This diversification is strategically important. Titanium dioxide remains LB’s largest product line, but the pigment market is facing oversupply, trade restrictions and weaker pricing. Battery materials offer a different growth channel tied to China’s expanding LFP ecosystem.

LB has 100,000 t/yr of iron phosphate capacity and 50,000 t/yr of LFP capacity. It also has 25,000 t/yr of graphite anode capacity and 50,000 t/yr of graphitisation capacity.

That product base positions LB across titanium, zirconium and battery materials. The company is no longer only a titanium dioxide producer, even though it remains the world’s largest TiO2 producer with 1.51mn t/yr of capacity.

The 2025 results show a clear split in the business. Titanium dioxide is under pressure from oversupply and trade action. Titanium sponge is holding stronger. Iron phosphate is growing with battery demand.

For LB, the industrial challenge is to manage a mature pigment business while expanding higher-growth materials platforms. Its integrated mineral base gives it flexibility, but market conditions across TiO2, sponge and battery materials are moving in different directions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LB’s results show how Chinese titanium producers are moving beyond pigment exposure into sponge and battery materials. The strategic value lies in feedstock integration, because companies that can shift internal mineral flows between TiO2, titanium sponge and battery precursors will be better positioned in volatile markets.

Europe EV Growth Rises as Incentives Mask Fragile Demand Signals

Europe EV

Europe EV growth accelerated last month as battery electric vehicle sales rose by 41%, supported by tax incentives, fleet buying and carmakers’ efforts to meet emissions targets. The increase looks strong on paper, but the drivers of demand remain uneven across markets.

Battery electric vehicle sales outpaced plug-in hybrid sales, which rose by 32% across the EU, EFTA and UK. Regular hybrid vehicle sales increased by 15%, while petrol and diesel sales continued to decline across major European markets.

Europe EV growth was strongest in large markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Spain again stood out for plug-in hybrid growth, showing that national policy, consumer economics and model availability continue to shape adoption differently.

The headline growth is important for battery metals and automotive supply chains. Higher BEV sales support long-term demand for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets.

Incentives and Fleet Orders Drive the Near-Term Recovery

Tax policy remains one of the main engines behind Europe EV growth. Several member states entered the year with revised company car rules, income-linked subsidies or accelerated depreciation schemes for electric vehicles.

These measures have favoured fleet buyers more than private consumers. Corporate fleets can respond faster to tax incentives, depreciation benefits and emissions rules because they buy vehicles in larger volumes and plan replacements more systematically.

France has tightened the link between EV support and income. Germany’s recovery has been supported by targeted incentives reintroduced in January after earlier policy volatility disrupted demand.

This matters because fleet-led growth can be less stable than broad consumer adoption. Fleet orders can lift sales quickly, but private demand is still sensitive to price, charging access, financing costs and residual value concerns.

Carmakers are also working to meet CO₂ limits. This creates another demand driver that is not purely consumer-led. Automakers may use pricing, leasing and fleet channels to push EV registrations when regulatory targets tighten.

For metals markets, the distinction matters. Stable private adoption creates more predictable battery material demand. Incentive-driven fleet demand can be more volatile if policy changes or budget support weakens.

Oil Shock Adds Uncertainty to EV Demand Outlook

Higher oil prices after the US-Iran war have revived the question of whether fuel costs are pushing consumers toward electric vehicles. However, the evidence is not yet clear.

EV demand was already rising in key markets before the oil shock. Early-year growth appears to reflect incentives, fleet orders and emissions compliance more than a direct consumer shift caused by higher fuel costs.

There is also a timing lag. Vehicle orders usually appear in sales data several weeks later, and delivery times vary by model and country. Any clear oil-price effect may not appear until June or July.

This caution is important because monthly EV data can be distorted by local registration patterns. The UK, for example, often sees a March registration spike because of its plate change system.

The broader strategic message remains clear. If Europe wants to reduce exposure to oil shocks, it needs consistent carbon rules, pollution-based taxation, charging infrastructure and long-term industrial policy.

Stop-start subsidies can create temporary sales jumps, but they can also damage market confidence. Stable rules are more useful for automakers, battery producers, charging companies and metals suppliers.

Europe EV growth therefore remains real but fragile. The region is moving away from petrol and diesel, yet the pace still depends heavily on policy design and fleet purchasing behaviour.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe EV growth is not yet a clean demand signal for battery metals because incentives and fleet buying are doing much of the work. The stronger long-term signal will come when private buyers adopt EVs without policy volatility or fuel-price panic.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

Australia EU Trade Deal Secures Critical Raw Materials Supply

Australia, EU trade

Australia EU trade deal negotiations have concluded after eight years, giving the EU a new framework to secure stable access to critical raw materials. The agreement targets minerals including lithium, bauxite, manganese, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth oxides.

The Australia EU trade deal will cut or remove bilateral tariffs on critical raw materials and value-added mineral products. This gives European manufacturers a more reliable supply route at a time when tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical pressure are reshaping global materials trade.

The agreement also strengthens Australia’s position as a preferred critical minerals partner for Europe. Australia produces around a third of global lithium and remains a major supplier of bauxite, iron ore, zirconium, and rare earth elements.

Critical Minerals Access Becomes Central to EU Trade Policy

The EU is using the Australia EU trade deal to reduce exposure to China-dominated supply chains and rising US tariff risks. The agreement reflects Brussels’ shift from traditional trade liberalisation toward strategic supply chain security.

Critical raw materials are now central to European industrial policy because they support batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence systems, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Stable access to lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and rare earths will determine how quickly Europe can scale clean-energy manufacturing.

The deal also includes deeper co-operation on critical raw materials, including possible co-financing of key projects. This matters because Europe needs not only raw mineral access, but also investment in processing, refining, and value-added material production.

Australia Gains Strategic Value as Europe Diversifies Supply

Australia stands to gain economically and strategically from the agreement. The deal is expected to add about $7 billion per year to the Australian economy, while European producers could save more than $1.1 billion in tariffs over the next decade.

The timing is important because Europe is rapidly diversifying its strategic trade partnerships. The EU recently moved forward with trade agreements involving Mercosur and India, showing that Brussels is building a wider network of reliable raw material and manufacturing partners.

The Australia agreement still requires approval by a majority of EU member states and consent from the European Parliament before ratification is complete. However, the strategic direction is already clear: Europe wants critical minerals supply from partners with stable governance, developed mining capacity, and lower geopolitical risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Australia EU trade deal shows that critical minerals have moved from procurement strategy to trade architecture. Europe is no longer simply buying raw materials; it is building alliances to secure the minerals, processing capacity, and industrial resilience needed for the energy transition.

China Rare Earth Resources Expand as Maoniuping REO Estimate Nearly Doubles

China Natural Resources

China rare earth resources have received another major boost after the natural resources ministry confirmed 9.67 million tonnes of rare earth oxide resources at the Maoniuping mining area in Sichuan province. The updated estimate nearly doubles the 4.96 million tonnes of REO previously reported by China Rare Earth Group in September 2024.

The Maoniuping mine is operated by China Rare Earth Group, the country’s largest state-owned rare earth producer. The new resource verification strengthens China’s upstream position in a sector where it already dominates separation, refining, magnet materials, and downstream industrial applications.

China rare earth resources remain central to global supply chains for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, robotics, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. The larger Maoniuping resource base gives Beijing more long-term optionality as rare earth demand rises and geopolitical competition intensifies.

Maoniuping Reinforces China’s Rare Earth Industrial Advantage

The Maoniuping update is strategically important because China’s rare earth strength is not limited to mining. The country controls the most advanced and integrated rare earth processing system, from ore extraction to separated oxides, metals, alloys, and permanent magnets.

A larger confirmed REO resource base supports that industrial chain. It gives China Rare Earth Group a stronger reserve platform and reinforces Beijing’s ability to manage supply, pricing, and export policy across rare earth markets.

The timing also matters. China has pledged to launch a new round of mineral exploration actions over the next five years, aiming for breakthroughs in strategic resources. The Maoniuping result shows how exploration and state-backed consolidation are working together to protect China rare earth resources and industrial competitiveness.

Antimony Discovery Adds Weight to Strategic Mineral Policy

China also confirmed antimony resources equivalent to 51,455 tonnes of metal at the Waxigou mine in Gansu province. The project is held by Gansu Sanchang Mining and adds another resource point in a market already affected by tight supply and export controls.

Antimony has become more strategically visible because it is used in flame retardants, alloys, semiconductors, ammunition, and defense-related applications. China accounts for a dominant share of global refining capacity, making any new domestic resource confirmation important for both supply security and policy leverage.

Beijing has already placed antimony and rare earths under stricter dual-use export licensing controls. As a result, ex-China supply has tightened, prices have surged, and overseas buyers are reassessing dependence on Chinese-controlled critical mineral chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s latest rare earth and antimony confirmations show that Beijing is strengthening both the upstream and regulatory sides of critical mineral control. For the US, EU, Japan, and Korea, the message is clear: diversification must include mining, refining, recycling, and advanced material production, not just alternative offtake contracts.

India EV Funding Gap Threatens 2030 Electrification Targets

India EV, TOYOTA

India EV funding remains far behind the level needed to meet the country’s 2030 electrification targets. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimates that India invested $25.6bn across EV manufacturing, public subsidies, and charging infrastructure between 2020 and 2025, equal to only 18pc of required capital.

India now needs to mobilise another $117.82bn by 2030. That means around 82pc of the total investment requirement remains unfunded. The scale of the India EV funding gap is significant because the country’s targets require EVs to reach 30pc of private car sales, 70pc of commercial vehicle sales, 40pc of buses, and 80pc of two- and three-wheelers by 2030.

The funding shortfall has direct implications for battery materials, grid investment, charging equipment, automotive supply chains, and domestic manufacturing competitiveness. Without faster capital deployment, India may struggle to turn policy ambition into large-scale electrification.

EV Manufacturing Investment Remains Uneven Across Segments

India’s EV manufacturing investment has been concentrated heavily in electric three-wheelers. This segment represented around 78pc of total OEM investment between 2020 and 2025, reflecting early commercial adoption and a highly fragmented producer base.

IEEFA noted that more than 800 electric three-wheeler OEMs are registered on the government’s Vahan dashboard. This fragmentation has led to duplicate fixed investments across many small and mid-sized firms, which may reduce capital efficiency as the market matures.

Other EV segments have attracted much less manufacturing capital. Electric two-wheelers accounted for around 8pc of total OEM investment, electric four-wheelers also represented about 8pc, and electric buses contributed roughly 6pc. Electric four-wheeler investment remained limited because of high upfront costs, fewer models, and slower adoption.

OEM investment also declined from $4.3bn in 2020 to $2.1bn in 2025. This slowdown reflects earlier capacity expansion and a later shift toward better use of existing resources. However, it also shows that India EV funding momentum must strengthen if the country wants to meet its 2030 targets.

Charging and Financing Bottlenecks Could Slow EV Adoption

Public charging infrastructure has expanded quickly but remains underfunded. India’s public charger count rose from 5,151 in 2020 to 39,485 in 2025. However, estimated investment reached only around $230mn including installation and set-up costs, equal to just 9.6pc of the $2.36bn needed by 2030.

This charging gap creates a major adoption barrier. India’s charger-to-EV ratio remains well behind China, the EU, and the US. Without faster charging deployment, EV adoption could remain concentrated in certain vehicle segments and urban markets rather than scaling across the wider transport system.

High financing costs add another structural constraint. Commercial EV borrowers face interest rates of 15-33pc, which can weaken the total cost-of-ownership advantage that normally supports EV adoption. This is especially important for buses, delivery fleets, commercial vehicles, and small operators.

IEEFA proposes an integrated financing platform using partial credit guarantees, residual value protection, battery-as-a-service models, and co-lending structures. Such mechanisms could reduce lender risk and lower borrowing costs, helping India move from subsidy-led growth toward market-led EV scaling.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s EV challenge is no longer only about demand creation; it is about capital architecture. The country needs financing models, charging investment, and supply-chain depth that can support electrification at industrial scale.

Trafigura Critical Minerals Loan Strengthens Germany’s Raw Materials Security

Trafigura

Trafigura critical minerals loan support from the German government marks another major step in Europe’s effort to secure strategic raw materials. The $2.1bn, five-year agreement is designed to support supplies for Germany’s industrial, energy, and technology sectors at a time when critical minerals are becoming central to economic security.

The loan is guaranteed through Germany’s export credit agency Euler Hermes and co-arranged by Commerzbank. A consortium of eight lenders financed the package. This structure shows how governments are increasingly using credit guarantees to support supply access, not only domestic production.

Trafigura critical minerals loan financing also reflects Germany’s growing reliance on public-private supply frameworks. The company previously secured an $800mn Germany-backed loan in 2022 to supply refined non-ferrous metals and a $3bn loan the same year to support gas supply. The latest agreement shifts the focus toward minerals needed for the green transition, defence, and advanced manufacturing.

Germany Deepens State-Backed Support for Critical Minerals Supply

Germany is treating critical minerals supply as an industrial resilience issue. The new loan does not identify specific minerals or projects, but the EU’s critical raw materials list includes rare earths, gallium, germanium, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. These materials are essential for batteries, semiconductors, power systems, defence applications, and high-performance manufacturing.

The financing also shows how Europe is responding to supply concentration risk. Many critical minerals are mined, refined, or processed in limited jurisdictions. As a result, industrial buyers are exposed not only to price volatility, but also to export controls, geopolitical disruption, and refining bottlenecks.

Trafigura critical minerals loan support gives Germany a mechanism to strengthen access through one of the world’s largest commodity trading networks. For German manufacturers, this matters because access to raw materials can determine competitiveness in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, electronics, aerospace, and industrial technology.

Processing Capacity Becomes the Strategic Battleground

Trafigura has repeatedly argued that governments must support smelting and refining capacity if they want resilient critical minerals supply chains. This is a key point because supply security does not end at mining. Many strategic materials become usable only after complex refining, by-product recovery, and metallurgical processing.

Nyrstar, Trafigura’s metals subsidiary, is becoming an important part of that strategy. The company is expanding processing capacity for by-products such as antimony, germanium, indium, and bismuth. These materials often come from existing metallurgical circuits, making legacy smelters strategically valuable in the critical minerals economy.

Nyrstar’s first shipments of Australian-produced antimony metal from its Port Pirie plant highlight this approach. Instead of waiting for entirely new mines and refineries, Trafigura is using existing infrastructure to scale output of materials with high strategic value. That model could become increasingly important as Europe and allied economies race to reduce exposure to concentrated supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This loan shows that critical minerals security is moving from policy language into balance-sheet-backed industrial action. The winners will be companies that control logistics, refining knowledge, and by-product recovery capacity, not only mine ownership.

EU end-of-life vehicles regulation sets recycled content targets for cars

Recycled content for cars

The EU end-of-life vehicles regulation will set recycled content targets for cars across the bloc. The deal phases in recycled plastics content in new vehicles over the next decade. Therefore, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation reshapes how automakers source plastics, steel, and aluminium.

The European Parliament and EU states reached a provisional agreement on the rules. The plan sets 15% recycled plastics in six years. It then rises to 25% in ten years. Meanwhile, 20% of those plastics must come from end-of-life vehicles or reused components.

Recycled steel and aluminium targets move to a feasibility phase

Targets for recycled steel and aluminium will follow later. The European Commission will run feasibility studies first. As a result, the EU end-of-life vehicles regulation creates a staged pathway for metal recycling mandates.

This approach gives industry time to validate scrap availability and quality. However, it still signals future demand for low-carbon secondary aluminium and recycled steel. Therefore, suppliers should prepare for tighter traceability and mass-balance scrutiny.

Producer responsibility and export rules tighten material retention

The agreement expands collection and depollution rules to more vehicle categories. It will cover heavy-duty vehicles, motorcycles, and special purpose vehicles. Meanwhile, the regulation will introduce a cross-border extended producer responsibility scheme three years after entry.

Manufacturers will carry financial and organisational responsibility across the vehicle lifecycle. The rules also aim to distinguish used vehicles from end-of-life vehicles more clearly. Five years after entry, the EU will ban exports of non-roadworthy used vehicles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy pushes the auto supply chain toward circular materials at scale. However, recycled aluminium and steel targets will hinge on scrap sorting and clean-stream capacity. Therefore, early movers in certified recycling and traceable alloys gain leverage.

EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles face fresh pressure from Berlin

German

EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles face new pressure from Berlin. Friedrich Merz urged European Union policymakers to keep multiple drivetrains on sale after 2035. However, he wants technology-neutral EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles that protect competitiveness.

The European Commission plans to revise car and van CO2 standards on 10 December. It already offered more compliance flexibility for 2025–2027. Therefore, Berlin sees a window to reshape the 2035 pathway.

Technology-neutral compliance expands beyond tailpipe metrics

Merz signaled flexibility in a letter to Ursula von der Leyen. He asked for continued acceptance of efficient combustion engines after 2035. Meanwhile, he also backed plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs beyond 2035.

Berlin also wants rules to recognize value-chain reductions. It wants regulators to credit sustainable inputs like green steel. As a result, automakers could offset vehicle emissions with cleaner materials and processes.

Fleet rules, e-fuels, and industry pressure shape the 2026 debate

Merz wants more flexible interim fleet targets to cut penalty risk. He also supports higher blending quotas for synthetic and biogenic fuels. However, he rejects mandatory EV quotas for corporate fleets. Instead, he prefers incentives that accelerate adoption without mandates.

Industry lobbying has intensified after Stellantis dropped its 2030 all-electric sales goal. Campaigners warn that weaker rules could raise exposure to imported EV competition. Meanwhile, BYD growth adds urgency to Europe’s industrial strategy. Therefore, EU 2035 CO2 targets for vehicles now sit at the center of policy and market risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Technology-neutral rules can protect jobs and investment during a messy transition. However, Europe must avoid locking in slow decarbonisation pathways. Therefore, policymakers should pair flexibility with clear, enforceable emissions outcomes.

Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan strengthens Europe’s critical copper supply

Aurubis

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan marks a major step in Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The €200mn investment loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) will fund capacity growth at Aurubis sites in Bulgaria and Germany. As a result, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan directly targets higher refined copper output and more recycled copper flows into EU industry.

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is also the first EIB metals-sector financing under the bank’s new raw materials strategy. In March, the EIB committed to lend around €2bn a year to critical raw materials projects. These include extraction, processing, recycling and substitution technologies across the energy transition value chain. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan serves as an early flagship for this new mandate.

EIB backs primary and secondary copper growth at Pirdop and Hamburg

Aurubis will use the EIB loan to expand both primary and secondary copper capacity. At Pirdop in Bulgaria, the company is investing €120mn to enlarge its tank-house. This expansion will lift refined copper cathode capacity by 50pc to 340,000 t/yr. Commissioning is planned for fiscal year 2025-26, adding meaningful volumes to Europe’s copper pool.

At the same time, Aurubis will invest €190mn in its Hamburg smelter and refinery complex. The project will enable an extra 30,000 t/yr of recycled copper scrap processing, alongside more internal smelting intermediates. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan supports both mined copper and circular copper streams. This dual focus directly aligns with EU priorities on recycling, resource efficiency and lower embedded emissions.

These expansions will further cement Aurubis’ position as Europe’s largest copper producer. Increased output from Pirdop and Hamburg should improve regional security of supply. That security is critical as copper demand rises for grid upgrades, renewables, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure.

Copper market vulnerability drives EU support for Aurubis

Recent market dynamics underline why the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan matters for Europe. Earlier this year, a huge influx of global copper flowed into the US. End-users and traders stockpiled metal ahead of expected US copper import tariffs that never materialised. However, the diversion exposed how quickly European copper availability can tighten when trade flows shift.

Europe’s vulnerability stems from its heavy dependence on imported copper concentrates and refined metal. Any tariff scare, logistics disruption or geopolitical shock can pull units away from the Atlantic basin. Therefore, building more regional smelting, refining and recycling capacity has become a strategic priority. The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is a concrete step toward that goal.

By boosting both primary cathode output and recycled copper processing, Aurubis supports a more resilient supply base. Meanwhile, EIB-backed capital lowers financing costs and signals strong policy alignment. Over time, this combination could help stabilise European copper premia and reduce exposure to external shocks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ deal with the EIB shows how copper is moving to the centre of Europe’s industrial and energy transition policy. The mix of primary capacity growth and scrap-based expansion reflects a realistic view of future copper constraints. Market participants should watch how quickly the new tank-house and Hamburg upgrades translate into additional cathode and scrap-processing volumes, especially if trade tensions divert metal again.

Envision AESC Launches Battery Plant in France to Boost Global EV Supply

Envision AESC

Strategic Expansion into Europe

Chinese battery manufacturer Envision AESC has inaugurated a 10GWh per year battery plant in Douai, northern France. The facility’s initial phase will produce enough cells to power 200,000 electric vehicles annually, supporting Europe’s growing demand for clean transportation. While the company has not disclosed timelines for subsequent phases, the project represents a significant step in its global manufacturing strategy.

Envision AESC’s goal is to achieve a total global battery capacity of 400GWh per year by 2026, with operations spanning 13 battery manufacturing bases across China, Japan, the US, the UK, France, and Spain. This broad geographic footprint is designed to meet the surging needs of the rapidly developing EV sector and strengthen resilience against supply disruptions.

Scaling Capacity Amid Geopolitical Shifts

The company is simultaneously doubling its production in Cangzhou, China, to 20GWh per year by 2026 and constructing a gigafactory for lithium iron phosphate batteries in Navalmoral de la Mata, Spain, scheduled to start output in 2026. These moves align with a wider trend among Chinese battery firms expanding overseas in response to geopolitical pressures, including higher US import tariffs and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act.

Envision AESC is a joint venture between Chinese-owned Envision and Japanese-owned AESC, itself a collaboration between automaker Nissan and component maker Tokin. By strategically positioning manufacturing assets within key markets, the company aims to enhance customer proximity, reduce logistics risks, and align with local regulatory requirements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Envision AESC’s French facility marks another decisive step in the localization of battery supply for Europe’s EV market. By combining European production with a global expansion strategy, the company is hedging against trade tensions while capturing market share in high-growth regions. The challenge ahead will be scaling production efficiently while adapting to evolving environmental and trade policies in multiple jurisdictions.

Stellantis Invests in Italy Electric Motor Plant to Advance EV Strategy

Stellantis

Stellantis invests €38mn in Italian plant to expand EV motor component production and strengthen European electric vehicle supply chain.

New Investment to Expand Stellantis Electric Motor Production in Italy

Stellantis will invest €38 million ($41.1 million) in its Verrone, Italy plant to build electric motor components. The funding will support the installation of 56 new machine tools, enabling an output of 400,000 components per year. Stellantis may expand this capacity to 600,000 units in the future. Production is scheduled to start by 2027.

The move represents another strategic step in Stellantis' transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs). This investment also aligns with the company’s plan to boost local manufacturing and maintain its industrial base in Italy. In January, Stellantis announced plans to produce electrified dual-clutch transmissions for hybrid cars in Italy.

EV Sales Decline But Stellantis Doubles Down on Electrification

Stellantis' global sales dropped to 5.7 million units in 2024, down from 6.2 million in 2023. Full electric vehicle sales also declined to 314,500 units, compared with 369,000 units in the previous year. Despite this, the company is increasing investment in long-term EV infrastructure to future-proof its European operations.

Meanwhile, Stellantis’ push to localize EV production aligns with broader EU goals to reindustrialize the clean tech sector. With supply chain risks growing, building electric motor parts domestically offers greater security and cost stability. This investment could also stimulate supplier ecosystems in northern Italy and contribute to job preservation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

While EV sales have slowed, Stellantis is thinking long-term. Strategic investments like this suggest a pivot toward in-house component production and regional manufacturing resilience. This move also signals confidence in the EU’s clean mobility future, despite current market volatility.