China Titanium Sponge Capacity Surge Deepens Oversupply Pressure

Titanium Sponge

China titanium sponge capacity is set to expand sharply through 2026, intensifying oversupply, margin pressure and competition across the domestic titanium industry. Operating capacity is expected to reach 411,000 t/yr by year-end, with more than 130,000 t/yr of new capacity planned.

China titanium sponge capacity could exceed 550,000 t/yr within three to five years, far outpacing recent growth in downstream titanium ingot and mill product output.

China titanium sponge capacity growth is becoming increasingly difficult to absorb because demand from major end-use sectors remains weak. Chemical, aerospace and consumer electronics consumption all declined in 2025.

The mismatch is pushing Chinese producers toward exports, but trade barriers, carbon costs and weaker Japanese demand could limit how much excess sponge can be absorbed overseas.

Sponge Supply Is Growing Faster Than Downstream Titanium Demand

China’s nine operating sponge producers produced 281,000t in 2025, up 9.8% from a year earlier.

Downstream growth was slower. Titanium ingot production increased by 6.2% to around 169,900t, while mill product output rose by 6.4% to 183,000t.

This widening gap is increasing inventory and pricing pressure across the titanium chain.

The chemical industry remained China’s largest titanium-consuming sector in 2025, accounting for 73,172t of mill product demand. Consumption nevertheless declined slightly from the previous year.

Aerospace demand fell to 30,796t, down by 1,396t, while computer, communications and consumer electronics demand dropped by 2,266t to 7,933t.

Weak demand in these sectors is particularly problematic because much of China’s sponge production remains concentrated in lower-end grades.

Domestic producers therefore face increasingly homogeneous competition, where multiple suppliers compete for the same chemical and industrial applications.

Revenue and margins are already under pressure, and additional capacity expected in 2026 could make operating conditions even more difficult.

Exports Face Carbon, Quality and Geopolitical Barriers

Chinese producers are increasingly looking overseas to absorb excess titanium sponge supply, but export markets present their own challenges.

Europe’s carbon border policies could weaken Chinese price competitiveness because domestic sponge production is highly electricity intensive.

Chinese producers typically consume around 24,000 kWh of electricity per tonne of titanium sponge, compared with around 10,000 kWh/t in Japan.

That difference could become increasingly important as customers and regulators place greater value on embedded carbon.

Japan is another difficult market. Deteriorating China-Japan relations have already reduced orders, limiting one of the more logical outlets for Chinese surplus production.

Quality is also a structural constraint.

Chinese producers still lag established Japanese suppliers such as Toho Titanium and Osaka Titanium in high-purity sponge used in demanding aerospace and premium alloy applications.

This means additional capacity does not automatically translate into access to higher-value markets.

The industry therefore faces a strategic choice. Producers can continue competing on volume and price in lower-end markets, or invest in purity, consistency, carbon efficiency and downstream integration.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s titanium problem is shifting from insufficient capacity to excessive low-end capacity. Without stronger aerospace demand or major upgrades in purity and energy efficiency, new sponge projects risk intensifying price competition rather than creating higher-value growth.

LB Titanium Dioxide Output Falls as Sponge and Battery Materials Expand

LB Titanium

LB titanium dioxide output fell in 2025 as weaker prices, slower demand and rising trade barriers pressured the global pigment market. China’s largest titanium producer reported titanium dioxide production of 1.28mn t, down 1.5% from a year earlier.

LB titanium dioxide output declined even as sales edged higher to 1.26mn t. Domestic sales accounted for 45% of volumes, while international sales made up 55%, showing that overseas markets remain critical to the company’s TiO2 business.

LB titanium dioxide output came under pressure from structural oversupply. New capacity entered the market, prices weakened and several domestic producers cut operating rates to protect margins.

The company also pointed to anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and the Eurasian Economic Union, along with higher US tariffs on Chinese material. These measures have fragmented trade flows and made the global titanium dioxide market more difficult for Chinese exporters.

Titanium Sponge Offers a Stronger Counterweight

LB’s titanium sponge business moved in the opposite direction. Titanium sponge output rose by 2.3% on the year to 71,300t, while sales increased by 0.9% to 67,500t.

The stronger sponge result matters because titanium sponge sits closer to aerospace, industrial titanium mill products and high-performance alloy supply chains. It gives LB a more diversified titanium platform beyond pigment markets.

Titanium sponge prices were also firmer. Domestic 99.7% grade sponge prices averaged 49,665 yuan/t ex-works in 2025, up from 48,270 yuan/t a year earlier.

LB has 80,000 t/yr of titanium sponge capacity, the largest globally. That scale gives the company a major position in a market where feedstock security, product quality and downstream demand from titanium processors remain strategically important.

Titanium concentrate output fell by 3% to 1.45mn t, but LB did not sell concentrate externally. All concentrate was consumed internally to produce titanium dioxide and titanium sponge.

This internal use highlights the company’s integrated titanium value chain. LB can direct feedstock toward different downstream products depending on market conditions, although weak TiO2 demand still affects overall profitability.

Iron ore concentrate output fell more sharply, dropping by 18% to 3.04mn t. Sales decreased by 2.1% to 2.94mn t, showing softer performance in another mineral by-product stream.

Iron Phosphate Growth Signals Battery Materials Diversification

LB’s battery materials business showed much stronger momentum. Iron phosphate output jumped by 72% to 97,600t, while sales rose by 59% to 96,000t.

The growth was driven by firm demand from the lithium-ion battery sector. Iron phosphate is a key precursor for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, which are widely used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

This diversification is strategically important. Titanium dioxide remains LB’s largest product line, but the pigment market is facing oversupply, trade restrictions and weaker pricing. Battery materials offer a different growth channel tied to China’s expanding LFP ecosystem.

LB has 100,000 t/yr of iron phosphate capacity and 50,000 t/yr of LFP capacity. It also has 25,000 t/yr of graphite anode capacity and 50,000 t/yr of graphitisation capacity.

That product base positions LB across titanium, zirconium and battery materials. The company is no longer only a titanium dioxide producer, even though it remains the world’s largest TiO2 producer with 1.51mn t/yr of capacity.

The 2025 results show a clear split in the business. Titanium dioxide is under pressure from oversupply and trade action. Titanium sponge is holding stronger. Iron phosphate is growing with battery demand.

For LB, the industrial challenge is to manage a mature pigment business while expanding higher-growth materials platforms. Its integrated mineral base gives it flexibility, but market conditions across TiO2, sponge and battery materials are moving in different directions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

LB’s results show how Chinese titanium producers are moving beyond pigment exposure into sponge and battery materials. The strategic value lies in feedstock integration, because companies that can shift internal mineral flows between TiO2, titanium sponge and battery precursors will be better positioned in volatile markets.

China Titanium Sponge Exports Rise in March as Asian Buyers Support Demand

China Titanium Sponge

China titanium sponge exports rose year on year in March, supported by stronger buying interest from South Korea, India, Vietnam and Slovenia. Chinese customs data showed exports reached 453t during the month, up 8.6% from 417t a year earlier.

China titanium sponge exports still declined by 7.4% from February’s 489t, showing that overseas buying remained selective. Some buyers were not under immediate pressure to purchase Chinese material because spot supply was sufficient.

China titanium sponge exports totalled 1,535t in January-March, down 5.7% from a year earlier. The decline reflected weaker buying from major consumers including Japan, South Korea and the US.

The data show a titanium sponge export market that is recovering unevenly. Asian demand helped March shipments, but inventory drawdowns, delayed purchasing and weaker aerospace-linked orders continued to limit broader export momentum.

Japan, South Korea and US Demand Weaken in First Quarter

Japan remained the largest destination for Chinese titanium sponge in January-March, receiving 347t. However, shipments fell by 37% from 548t a year earlier.

The decline was mainly caused by delayed purchasing from a major Japanese consumer. Purchases are expected to resume in May, which could support later-quarter export flows.

South Korean imports from China also fell. Shipments dropped by 33% to 172t as some buyers slowed procurement after failing to secure downstream aerospace original equipment manufacturer orders.

This matters because aerospace demand remains one of the most important drivers of higher-grade titanium sponge consumption. When downstream aerospace orders are delayed, sponge buyers often reduce spot intake and work through inventories.

US demand was almost absent in the first quarter. China exported only 0.2t of titanium sponge to the US, down 99.8% from a year earlier, as US consumers continued drawing down inventories.

The US result highlights the effect of inventory cycles and trade uncertainty. Even when Chinese material remains available, buyers may delay purchases if they have sufficient stock or face qualification, tariff and policy risk.

Export Prices Track Higher Domestic Sponge Market

Chinese 99.7% grade titanium sponge export prices averaged $6.70/kg fob China in January-March. This was up 1.5% from $6.60/kg a year earlier.

The increase tracked higher domestic titanium sponge prices. Export pricing therefore reflected cost support in China rather than a broad surge in overseas demand.

The modest price rise also shows that the market remains balanced. Chinese suppliers have support from domestic costs, but overseas buyers are still cautious and selective.

For global titanium supply chains, the key issue is not only volume. The quality, qualification status and end-use requirements of sponge matter, especially for aerospace and high-performance industrial applications.

China’s titanium sponge exports remain important for regional buyers in Asia and Europe. However, demand from aerospace-linked customers will depend on downstream order visibility, inventory levels and qualification confidence.

If Japanese buying resumes in May and South Korean aerospace-related demand improves, Chinese exports could recover further. But weak US flows suggest that trade and inventory factors will continue to limit upside in some markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China titanium sponge exports show a market supported by regional buying but still constrained by aerospace order timing and inventory drawdowns. The next signal will come from whether Japanese and South Korean buyers return with stronger qualified-material demand in the second quarter.

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge Exports Set to Rise as OEMs Diversify Supply

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge exports are expected to rise over the next five years as western aerospace supply chains look for additional qualified raw material sources. Chinese producer Chaoyang Jinda Titanium expects international shipments of qualified aerospace-grade sponge to increase from around 1,000t this year to 10,000t by 2030.

The shift reflects a deeper change in the aerospace titanium supply chain. Western aircraft manufacturers and ingot melters are trying to reduce exposure to Russian supply, while aircraft build rates are expected to rise from 2027.

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge is therefore moving from a limited export niche into a potential supply-chain balancing tool. However, tariffs, qualification risk and geopolitical uncertainty will limit how quickly US and European buyers adopt Chinese material.

The opportunity is strongest in standard-quality structural titanium grades. Premium-quality sponge for engine, landing-gear and other critical applications is likely to remain controlled by established suppliers with long qualification histories.

Western Aerospace Buyers Face a Supply-Diversification Challenge

Aerospace-grade sponge demand is expected to recover from 2027 after a weaker 2026 caused by inventory normalisation. Mills have been reducing stocks of semi-finished titanium parts and raw materials, but aircraft production plans point to higher requirements later in the decade.

The timing is important. Airbus and Boeing both carry long aircraft backlogs, creating a decade of production visibility. This forces mills and original equipment manufacturers to look beyond short-term demand swings and secure raw material sources for future build-rate increases.

Western OEMs also continue to reassess Russian titanium exposure. If procurement from Russia declines, the market will need alternative aerospace-qualified sponge to fill the gap. Japan’s Toho Titanium and Osaka Titanium are expanding, while China is preparing to supply more qualified material.

Global approved aerospace-grade sponge supply excluding Russian products is expected to rise from about 74,000t this year to around 91,000t by 2030. Demand is expected to grow at a similar pace, leaving the market sensitive to which suppliers are included in purchasing programmes.

The supply-demand picture changes significantly depending on China and Russia. Excluding both suppliers creates a tighter market. Including them creates more apparent supply availability. This makes qualification and geopolitical acceptability just as important as physical capacity.

Some US ingot producers began qualifying Chinese titanium sponge in 2024. US imports from China rose to a 10-year high of 1,069t that year, showing that buyers were willing to test Chinese material when diversification pressure increased.

However, imports fell to 155t last year and no Chinese sponge imports were reported in January-February 2026. Tariff volatility, high mill inventories and policy uncertainty discouraged further purchasing.

This shows the main barrier for China aerospace-grade titanium sponge. Aerospace qualification requires multi-year commitments, stable documentation, repeatable quality and customer confidence. Buyers will not qualify a new source quickly if they fear trade rules could change again.

Titanium is exempt from the latest 10% US tariff, and overall duties have fallen back to 40% from 60%. But the rate itself is not the only issue. For aerospace buyers, volatility can be more damaging than the actual tariff level.

A mill can absorb or price a known tariff. It cannot easily build a long-term qualification strategy around unpredictable policy. This is why US buyers may limit Chinese sponge procurement to 15-20% of requirements, even if the material is technically acceptable.

Europe and Asia-Pacific may offer more immediate export channels. China already supplies aerospace-grade sponge to buyers in those regions, supporting shipments even when US demand is limited.

Capacity Expansion Could Change the Titanium Sponge Balance

China is preparing a large wave of aerospace-grade sponge capacity additions. Several major projects are scheduled to come on line soon, with combined new capacity of around 110,000 t/yr.

The scale is unprecedented. The planned additions exceed the combined existing capacity of Japan’s Toho and Osaka Titanium, Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant, and Saudi Arabia’s ATTM.

China’s expansion is driven by two demand streams. Domestic aerospace demand is rising from the Comac C919 programme and military aircraft production. At the same time, producers expect higher export demand as western OEMs diversify away from Russia.

China’s titanium mill product demand already has a meaningful aerospace base. Aerospace applications accounted for about 20% of China’s titanium mill product demand in 2025, or roughly 31,280t. The chemicals industry remained the largest segment at 48%.

The domestic base gives Chinese sponge producers a stronger platform for quality improvement. Aerospace production experience matters because sponge qualification depends on consistency over time, not only nameplate capacity.

Still, some market participants question whether all new capacity can secure international aerospace qualification. New lines may need years of operating history before western melters and OEMs accept material for aircraft applications.

This is a critical distinction. China may have large physical capacity, but aerospace supply depends on approved, audited and repeatable production. Capacity alone does not guarantee market access.

Price competitiveness may support adoption. Domestic China aerospace-grade sponge prices have recently held firm at 55,000-57,000 yuan/t ex-works because of cost pressure. That remains competitive against some western supply routes, especially if buyers need alternative non-Russian material.

However, qualification is likely to split the market by application. Standard structural titanium grades are more likely to accept Chinese sponge over time. These grades support airframes and less critical structural components where qualification remains strict but less restrictive than engine-grade applications.

Premium-quality sponge will be harder to penetrate. Engine, landing-gear and other demanding aerospace uses require deeper qualification, tighter chemistry control and stronger confidence from prime contractors and tier suppliers.

Airbus’ titanium demand outlook adds another layer. The A350 is a high titanium-bearing platform, with titanium representing around 15% of aircraft weight. As A350 production rises toward 2027 and 2028, titanium demand visibility should improve across the supply chain.

That demand pull could make Chinese material more attractive if western supply tightens. But buyers will still balance cost, qualification, geopolitics and supply security.

For Chinese producers, the path is clear but difficult. They must prove consistent aerospace-grade quality, build long-term customer trust, manage export documentation and navigate trade policy risk.

For western OEMs, the decision is strategic. China aerospace-grade titanium sponge could reduce Russia exposure and improve supply flexibility. But it also introduces another geopolitical dependency at a time when aerospace and defence supply chains are under closer scrutiny.

The most likely outcome is partial adoption. Chinese sponge may become a growing supplement for standard-quality structural grades, while established Japanese, Kazakh, Saudi and other qualified suppliers remain central to premium aerospace applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge will become harder for western aerospace supply chains to ignore as aircraft build rates rise and Russian exposure narrows. The decisive issue is not capacity, but whether Chinese producers can convert new output into trusted, qualified and politically acceptable supply.

Titanium Prices Hold as Inventory Drawdown Limits Spot Buying

Titanium

Titanium prices held steady in Europe and the US over the past month as mills, forgers and OEMs continued to rely on inventories instead of placing larger new orders. The market remained under pressure from surplus melt capacity and slower demand for standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures.

US 6Al 4V ingot prices stayed at $10-10.75/lb fob domestic producer, with some spot purchases still taking place near $10/lb. Mills kept offers broadly stable below $11/lb, although at least one producer quoted above that level for larger orders.

Titanium prices also remained flat in Europe, with 6Al 4V ingot assessed at $19.50-21.50/kg du Rotterdam. Forgers continued to work through high inventories of mill products before committing to new intermediate material purchases.

Aerospace Inventory Drawdown Keeps Pressure on Standard Titanium

Aerospace demand remained uneven as Boeing and Airbus continued inventory drawdowns. This primarily affected standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures, where consumption has been slower than in higher-specification applications.

Surplus melt capacity kept pressure on ingot prices. Market participants said lead times for basic Grade 5 ingot were around eight to 10 weeks, while some producers could likely deliver within six weeks if pushed.

Demand was stronger in premium-quality ingot for engine applications. Defence and medical markets also showed pockets of resilience, giving titanium producers some support outside standard aerospace structures.

Sponge and Commercially Pure Titanium Markets Stay Stable

Titanium sponge contract prices also remained stable. TG100 grade sponge long-term contract prices were assessed at $11-12/kg du Rotterdam in March, in line with standing 2026 contracts.

Saudi Arabian producer ATTM continued to operate normally, despite wider Middle East conflict risks and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has affected regional freight routes and disrupted some metals supply chains, but no direct titanium sponge impact was reported.

Commercially pure titanium ingot prices were also unchanged. CP Grade 1 ingot held at $12-14/kg cif main port, while CP Grade 2 ingot stayed at $11.10-12/kg cif main port.

Buyers avoided finalising new contracts as they focused on reducing stocks. However, inventory clearing remains difficult because lower-cost Chinese material continues to compete aggressively in downstream industrial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium prices are stable, but the market is not yet strong. The real divide is between standard aerospace titanium, where inventories still weigh on demand, and premium-quality, defence and medical applications, where strategic consumption remains firmer.

ATTM Titanium Sponge Operations Continue Despite Middle East Freight Risk

ATTM

ATTM titanium sponge operations remain normal despite rising logistics pressure from the war in the Middle East. The Saudi Arabian titanium sponge producer has reported no direct operational impact and does not expect material disruption to exports at this stage.

The company is a joint venture between Saudi group AMIC and Japan’s Toho Titanium. Its plant is located in Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, giving the facility strategic access to international titanium feedstock and export routes.

ATTM titanium sponge operations matter because the company supplies aerospace-grade titanium sponge to major Western markets, including the US, UK, France, and Italy. It also supplies ferro-titanium grades to Estonia, with smaller volumes shipped elsewhere.

Titanium Supply Chain Faces Freight and Feedstock Exposure

Regional freight markets have become more volatile as conflict disrupts shipping routes and energy-linked supply chains across the Middle East. Several aluminium production facilities have already faced production pressure because they could not secure imported feedstocks, energy supplies, or export access.

ATTM said it is actively managing logistics and does not anticipate material export disruption. This is important because Saudi Arabia imports most of its titanium ore and concentrate feedstocks from Mozambique and Australia.

ATTM titanium sponge operations therefore depend not only on plant performance, but also on inbound ore logistics and outbound sponge shipment routes. Any sustained disruption in freight availability, insurance costs, or port access could still affect titanium supply timing even if production remains stable.

Aerospace Sponge Output Remains Strategically Important

ATTM produced 12,000t of titanium sponge in 2025, compared with a nameplate capacity of 15,600 t/yr. That makes the company a meaningful non-Russian and non-Chinese titanium sponge source for aerospace and industrial customers.

The company’s relationship with Toho Titanium also strengthens its technical position. Aerospace-grade sponge requires strict control over chemistry, trace elements, and production consistency, making qualification and supplier reliability more important than spot-market availability.

For Western aerospace supply chains, stable ATTM titanium sponge operations provide reassurance during a period of geopolitical stress. However, the situation also highlights a broader vulnerability: titanium sponge supply remains concentrated in a small number of qualified producers, while feedstock logistics depend on long-distance maritime routes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ATTM’s stability is positive for aerospace titanium buyers, but the real risk sits in logistics rather than furnace operations. Titanium sponge customers should treat Middle East freight disruption as a supply-chain risk that can emerge before production itself is affected.

US titanium scrap-sponge ratio set to shift as melters chase margins

Titanium Scrap

The US titanium scrap-sponge ratio is poised to shift as melters chase cheaper inputs in 2026. Premium titanium sponge prices and weak downstream demand are squeezing margins and forcing producers to reconsider melt mixes. As a result, the US titanium scrap-sponge ratio could move decisively toward higher scrap utilization across many grades.

Furnace expansions support higher scrap utilization

Capacity expansions at ATI, Perryman and Timet will give melters more room to adjust the US titanium scrap-sponge ratio. Their projects are expected to add nearly 30,000 t/yr of ingot production capacity once fully ramped, according to Metalnomist estimates. Consequently, scrap utilization capacity could rise by 22pc to 111,215t in 2026 compared with 2024, ELG Utica Alloys’ Nick Corby told the International Titanium Association conference.

However, not every alloy can fully pivot away from sponge, because certain grades still require premium sponge for purity. Grade 5 (6Al-4V) ingot can be melted from 100pc scrap, which encourages a higher US titanium scrap-sponge ratio when prices favor recycled inputs. Importantly, melters can alter the scrap and sponge ratio without major downtime, allowing them to track raw material prices and supply conditions in real time.

Meanwhile, destocking in commercial aerospace could cap the practical impact of these technical options. Boeing and Airbus are signalling another year of subdued orders for ingot and milled products as they normalise inventory. This means melters already grappling with weaker demand may push deliveries out or no-quote dealers on certain grades, even as the US titanium scrap-sponge ratio tilts structurally toward scrap.

Global scrap flows deepen market distortions

Scrap sourcing dynamics will play a critical role in how far the US titanium scrap-sponge ratio can shift. The US accounts for around 95pc of global consumption of aerospace-grade titanium scrap, making it the natural sink for high-grade revert. Imports are crucial, covering more than half of US raw material needs and bridging gaps in domestic generation.

Historically, Europe supplied much of this scrap, reflecting its strong base of forging and machining operations. Long-standing supply agreements and buy-back schemes cemented a circular flow of titanium between the two regions. However, shifts in downstream processing toward Asia are eroding Europe’s share, even as titanium activity in countries like China accelerates.

China is on track to increase global titanium scrap exports by 64pc in 2025 to 5,874t, with most of that likely moving into the US. Officially, the US has only imported 434t of titanium scrap from China this year, US Commerce Department data show. Yet market participants say Chinese-origin scrap often reaches the US via other Asian countries to circumvent 25pc tariffs, complicating visibility.

As a result, the supply chain looks “inconsistent”, with scrap availability not matching lower generation rates caused by delayed aircraft build schedules and OEM stockpiles. Corby noted that imports are expected to exceed exports by 19,460t this year, the widest gap since records began. At the same time, European ferro-titanium consumers face weak steel demand and index-driven price pressure, cutting their appetite for scrap and pushing more material toward US buyers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The evolving US titanium scrap-sponge ratio highlights how price signals, furnace investments and trade flows interact across the titanium ecosystem. For melters, flexibility in melt mixes is becoming a strategic hedge against stubborn sponge prices and volatile aerospace demand. For scrap generators and intermediaries, rising US dependence and opaque routing via Asia could keep differentials wide — and margins attractive — well into the next aerospace upcycle.

China’s Titanium Sponge Exports Double as Global Supply Tightens

China Titanium Sponge

China's titanium sponge exports surged 104% in 1H 2025 to 3,586t. China's titanium sponge exports filled supply gaps from Russia and Ukraine disruptions. China's titanium sponge exports now anchor aerospace-grade feedstock for global mills.

Drivers and supply displacement

War halted Zaporozhe operations and cut output at VSMPO-Avisma and Solikamsk. Consequently, international buyers pivoted to Chinese sponge to secure critical inputs. Demand came from aerospace, medical devices, and mill products manufacturers. Tighter supply outside China supported new contracts and spot lifting.

June slowdown and shifting destinations

However, June exports fell to 446t, down 33% year on year. Shipments also fell 32% from May amid absent US buying. Taiwan received 120t; South Korea 100t; the Netherlands 60t. India took 40t, and Japan purchased 25t during the month.

Meanwhile, US demand remained weak under higher tariffs and softer mill activity. First-half US receipts dropped 80% to 123t. As a result, Chinese supply rebalanced toward Asian and European customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

We expect contract buyers to hedge with multi-source sponge as tariffs evolve. Watch aerospace backlogs, Russian repairs, and US policy for price direction. Sustained US absence could deepen Asia-centric trade flows into 2026.

BTI titanium production start in 2026 reshapes Gulf titanium supply

Bahrain Titanium Factory Contract

Bahrain Titanium(BTI) titanium production start in 2026 moves closer as construction begins in Bahrain. The Interlink Metals unit reset the timeline from mid-2025 to early 2026. Stage one will produce 4,000 t/yr of CP slabs and 1,500 t/yr of 6Al-4V ingots. The BTI titanium production start in 2026 aims to supply industrial customers across the Gulf.

Stage one scope and target markets

BTI designed stage one to serve hard-wearing industrial systems. The mix covers chemical processing, desalination, marine, and power generation. As a result, CP slabs and grade-5 ingots should anchor reliable regional supply. Downstream users expect shorter lead times and reduced import risk.

Stage two, offtake, and feedstock strategy

BTI plans stage two to add billets and forgings with up to 10,000 t/yr capacity. Therefore, the company can target aerospace, medical, and defence demand. Letters of intent support early volumes from Interlink’s legacy Ukrainian customers. Meanwhile, the AMIC–Toho Titanium sponge LOI in Saudi Arabia remains active. BTI may also use Chinese sponge for non-critical industrial applications.

BTI is test-melting on a ferro-titanium furnace to widen its product slate. It is installing processing and crushing lines to feed that unit. Consequently, ferro-titanium production is slated to begin later this year. Bahrain’s US free-trade agreement further supports market access amid trade uncertainty.

BTI titanium production start in 2026 could rebalance Middle East titanium flows. The program introduces new slab and ingot capacity near end-markets. Moreover, the staged plan de-risks ramp-up while broadening alloy forms.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BTI’s sequencing is pragmatic: industrial first, certification-heavy segments later. Feedstock optionality across Saudi and China reduces sponge risk. Execution now hinges on qualifying forgings for aerospace and medical end-use.

China Titanium Consumption 2025 Rises as Export Challenges Persist

China Titanium, Xinnuo Titanium

China titanium consumption 2025 is expected to rise slightly, driven by demand from aerospace, electronics, and power industries. However, Chinese titanium producers continue to face significant export barriers in Western markets, especially the U.S. and EU, due to tariffs and certification hurdles.

Aerospace and 3C Sectors Lead Titanium Demand Growth

China consumed 151,000 tonnes of titanium mill products in 2024, up 1.6% year-on-year, according to CNIA-Ti. The aerospace sector recorded the largest growth, consuming 32,193 tonnes—an increase of 2,816 tonnes from 2023. The power industry followed, supported by growth in renewable energy, while 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) demand rose by 10% to 11,000 tonnes, with Apple, Samsung, and Huawei sourcing parts from local suppliers.

Chemical applications remained the largest titanium-consuming sector at 48.5% of total demand, but usage in chemicals, ocean engineering, and salt manufacturing declined. Shipbuilding also saw steady growth, increasing consumption by 1,191 tonnes to 4,933 tonnes.

Titanium Sponge Output Rises, Led by China and Saudi Arabia

Global titanium sponge production increased by 12% in 2024 to 380,300 tonnes. China led with 256,000 tonnes, up 36%, accounting for 67% of global output. Saudi Arabia followed with a 17% rise to 15,000 tonnes. Japan’s sponge output declined 3.5% to 55,000 tonnes, while Ukrainian production remained at zero.

Russia's VSMPO-Avisma and Solikamsk produced between 20,000 and 26,500 tonnes, while Western buyers continue sourcing from Russia due to limited alternatives, despite sanctions and restrictions.

Export Market Access Remains a Major Hurdle

Chinese titanium exporters are eager to enter Western aerospace markets, but qualification requirements for sponge and semi-finished products like billets and bars remain a key challenge. In the U.S., a 20% tariff on titanium products imposed in early 2024 has stalled contract negotiations. Although titanium is exempt from reciprocal tariff increases, the uncertainty has added risk for long-term buyers.

In contrast, the EU and UK have suspended some titanium tariffs for aerospace, but supply chains remain locked into existing agreements with qualified Western producers. Market penetration remains difficult despite strong output growth in China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The China titanium consumption 2025 forecast reflects steady domestic growth, led by aerospace and electronics. However, real global competitiveness hinges on overcoming certification and tariff-related export hurdles, particularly in Western aerospace markets still reliant on legacy Russian supply chains.

Titanium Exempt from New US Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Broader Aerospace Uncertainty

Titanium Ingot

Titanium Scrap and Alloys Dodge Latest Tariff Wave, but Market Unease Persists

Titanium and its derivatives, including scrap and ferro-titanium, were notably exempted from the latest round of US reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. Annex II of President Donald Trump’s executive order outlined the list of exemptions, sparing various nonferrous metals, including titanium, from additional duties.

However, existing tariffs on titanium products remain unchanged. These include a 60% duty on Chinese titanium sponge and a 15% duty on unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia. While titanium scrap imports from the EU and UK are also exempt, pre-existing duties—such as the 20% tariff on Chinese titanium added in March—still apply.

Meanwhile, concerns linger about supply disruptions, particularly in vacuum-grade titanium scrap. The US depends heavily on EU and UK sources to meet demand for ingot melting in aerospace-grade production.

Aerospace Industry Caught in the Crossfire of Uncertain Trade Measures

The aerospace supply chain could still face ripple effects, especially concerning finished parts, components, and jet engines. Major OEMs such as Airbus, Boeing, and Rolls-Royce remain cautious, stating that they are assessing the impact of the new tariffs.

Jet engines like CFM’s Leap-1A and 1B, which power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max, span a US-French supply chain, raising questions about the impact of cross-border tariffs on subcomponents. Landing gear systems produced by Safran for the Boeing 787 and turbine modules from GE in the US to France further complicate the situation.

While titanium producers currently report no impact on OEMs for titanium-based parts, the ambiguity surrounding composite materials and mixed-alloy components could lead to future disruptions.

China's Tariff Retaliation Raises Stakes for US Aerospace Exports

In response, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, with no exemptions, escalating the trade conflict. This will impact US titanium exports to China—totaling 1,300t in 2024—mainly in bars, rods, and wire, as well as aerospace components vital to Comac’s C919 jet program.

China’s C919 relies on US-sourced Leap-1C engines, avionics from Honeywell Aerospace, GE Aerospace, and Collins Aerospace, making it vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

Although China sources the majority of its titanium domestically, these duties highlight the fragile interdependence of global aerospace production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium’s tariff exemption provides momentary relief to US aerospace and scrap processors, but the real uncertainty lies in composite supply chains. As the US and China entrench their trade defenses, aerospace firms must prepare for further regulatory fragmentation. Strategic stockpiling, diversified sourcing, and diplomatic engagement will define resilience in the next phase of industrial policy shifts.

China Raises Overseas Titanium Sponge Supply Amid Oversupply Pressure

China Titanium Sponge

Chinese Titanium Sponge Exports Surge in Response to Oversupply

Chinese titanium sponge producers are rapidly increasing exports to manage growing domestic oversupply. China has dominated global titanium sponge production since 2020, driven by aggressive capacity expansion and high revenues. In 2023, China’s top nine producers delivered 247,400t, a 13.5pc rise year-on-year, marking the ninth straight annual increase.

Export Volumes Climb as Global Buyers Shift from Ukraine and Japan

China exported 1,079t of titanium sponge in January–February 2025, up 29pc year-on-year, customs data shows. Demand rose sharply after Ukraine’s Zaporozhe plant shut down and Japanese suppliers diverted output to Europe and the U.S. South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. became China’s top three buyers in 2024, collectively absorbing over 3,800t.

Tariffs and Caution Temper U.S. and Japanese Import Growth

U.S. imports dropped 35pc in early 2025 due to new Trump-era tariffs, despite 2024 volumes surging nearly 8-fold. Japan doubled its imports to 1,162t last year, likely for quality testing and low-cost applications, not aerospace-grade use. Meanwhile, Japanese producers remain dominant domestically with a 65,000 t/yr capacity and cautious optimism about competition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s titanium sponge industry now walks a fine line between growing export momentum and long-term structural oversupply. While quality improvements have opened doors to Japan and the U.S., geopolitical barriers like tariffs and technical certification hurdles will continue to shape the pace of China's global expansion. Still, the supply shift signals a major realignment in the global titanium value chain.

Global Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge Supply Expands Despite Japanese Slowdown

Titanium Sponge

Higher utilization in Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia offsets Japan’s decline as China eyes industrial market growth

Global Titanium Sponge Output Rises in 2024

Titanium sponge production from aerospace-approved suppliers grew in 2024, reaching 89,000 metric tons — a 6% increase from 2023. This rise came despite a production decline in Japan, which was balanced by higher capacity utilization in Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and industry data confirm this upward trend, driven primarily by strategic expansion in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Japan's production fell to 55,000t in 2024, down from 57,000t in 2023. Inventory adjustments by domestic aerospace consumers were the primary cause. In contrast, Saudi Arabia's AMIC-Toho Titanium Metal ramped up output to 15,000t, nearing its 15,600 t/year capacity. Kazakhstan also maintained high utilization levels, strengthening its role as a stable sponge supplier for critical aerospace applications.

China Expands Industrial Market Footprint

While China’s titanium sponge remains unqualified for aerospace, its influence in industrial markets surged in 2024. Chinese production held steady at 220,000t, but capacity climbed to as much as 320,000 t/year, according to market participants. Japan’s imports of unwrought titanium from China rose sharply — from 451t in 2023 to 1,198t in 2024 — suggesting increased acceptance of Chinese sponge and ingot in industrial-grade production.

China’s growing presence is reshaping competition, particularly in Japan, where CP-grade metal demand dominates. Although Chinese sponge lacks aerospace certification, Metalnomist understands that select U.S. buyers are testing small volumes for future qualification — despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. The U.S. imported 1,068t of sponge from China in 2024, up from 154t the year before.

U.S. Aerospace Demand Softens Amid Boeing Constraints

U.S. titanium sponge imports from Japan declined in 2024 to 27,692t, down from 31,387t in 2023. This contraction reflects softer demand from American ingot melters due to lower-than-expected build rates for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and 737 Max programs. Persistent supply chain challenges further impacted intake, signaling a temporary slowdown in titanium conversion activity for aerospace.

Despite this, global titanium sponge markets remain dynamic. Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia continue to play a vital role in balancing supply, while China's push into the industrial sector could eventually redefine global sourcing strategies.

Titanium Exempted from US Tariffs: Aerospace Industry Impact Remains Unclear

Titanium

New US Tariff Exemptions for Titanium Could Affect the Aerospace Supply Chain

On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on several foreign imports, including an exemption for titanium, titanium scrap, and ferro-titanium. While the exemption helps protect titanium trade, the broader implications for the aerospace industry remain uncertain.

Titanium Exemption and Its Effects

The US tariffs announced include a list of exemptions, with titanium in its various forms being spared. However, other metals like hafnium, molybdenum, vanadium, nickel scrap, and aluminum scrap were not exempted. The new tariff scheme does not affect pre-existing duties on Chinese titanium products, including a 20% duty on titanium products from China, which has been in place since March 4, 2025. Despite the exemption for certain forms of titanium, Chinese titanium sponge imports will still be subject to a 60% duty, which remains unchanged.

Additionally, imports of unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia will still face a 15% tariff, though efforts to remove this tariff for sponge imports are underway. For US titanium scrap imports, particularly from the EU and UK, which make up over half of the US intake, the tariff exemption is crucial. Without it, US scrap dealers, processors, and consumers would face substantial challenges, as the US does not produce enough vacuum-grade titanium scrap domestically to meet demand.

Aerospace Industry and Supply Chain Impact

While the titanium exemption provides relief for many manufacturers, the broader impact of the tariffs on the aerospace industry is still unclear. Aerospace manufacturers are uncertain about the tariff's effects on finished parts, components, and engines, particularly regarding supply chains that involve cross-border production of engine parts like the Leap-1A and Leap-1B engines for the A320neo and Boeing 737 Max.

Canada and Mexico were excluded from the new US tariffs, alleviating concerns for companies like Bombardier, Airbus, RTX, and Heroux-Devtek, which operate in those regions. Still, some titanium producers believe the situation could change rapidly, as it is difficult to define the boundaries between parts made from titanium and assembled components that use other materials, such as nickel-based alloys or aluminum.

China’s 34% Tariff on US Exports

In response to US tariffs, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, which will affect titanium imports from the US. Despite importing limited amounts of titanium from the US, China still relies on US imports for critical aerospace components, including parts for its C919 aircraft. The C919 uses the CFM Leap-1C engine, which is assembled in both the US and France.

Overcoming High Tariffs through Titanium Recycling Materials

DongA Special Metal (DASM) Homepage

Reducing Costs by Using Titanium Scrap in the Age of High Tariffs

Since Donald Trump's election, the world has entered an era of high tariffs. In response to recent U.S. tariff policies, global companies have faced significant challenges in sourcing raw materials. This is especially true in the steel industry, which is struggling due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products. Companies in this sector are working tirelessly to secure materials and reduce costs in various ways.

The tariffs on Chinese materials have further diminished the competitiveness of U.S. companies in the domestic market. In addition, a predicted global industrial slowdown adds to the challenges. To remain competitive, companies must prioritize cost reduction. However, finding viable alternatives in this high-tariff era remains a struggle.

The situation is different in the specialty steel sector. Unlike common materials such as iron, stainless steel, and copper, which are largely controlled by China, the use of scrap offers limited cost savings in these areas. However, specialty alloys like nickel and titanium provide a significant opportunity for cost reduction. By using scrap materials in the production of these alloys, companies can achieve a 15-20% reduction in costs, making it a highly effective strategy for cutting expenses.

Scrap → Feedstock

Global Companies and the Shift Toward Scrap Use

Despite these benefits, the use of scrap in the specialty alloys sector remains relatively low, with only a few companies with advanced technology utilizing it. The main reason for this is a lack of understanding of its practical benefits. Integrating scrap into the production process can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency and simplification of operations, which naturally reduces costs. However, many companies fail to recognize these advantages, often due to a lack of experience.

To truly cut costs, increasing scrap usage is crucial. Additionally, the tariff situation has so far spared scrap materials from high taxes, making their use even more attractive. The growing need for scrap is becoming increasingly apparent as industries look for ways to cut costs and avoid tariff impacts. This raises the question: where can companies source specialty metal scrap?

South Korea Sees the Rise of a Scrap Specialization Recycling Company

To address these challenges, a specialty metal recycling company based in South Korea(DongA Special Metal) has developed technology to enhance scrap usage. This company has been recycling specialty alloys such as nickel, titanium, and zirconium for years, producing titanium sponge substitutes and feedstock for export to global markets. They offer a comprehensive service that includes advising on scrap alloy usage and ensuring that the final product meets industry standards.

Ti Sponge VS Ti Cobble

The company has particularly focused on titanium, a material known for its strength and elasticity. They break down titanium and process it into titanium sponge substitutes. This method not only makes titanium more affordable but also reduces the carbon emissions associated with titanium sponge production, which has become a significant concern in the metals industry. This innovation addresses both cost reduction and environmental challenges, making it an ideal solution for companies aiming to enter the U.S. market in the high-tariff era.

In recent years, the U.S. has increasingly turned to scrap use in the metals industry. In 2021, all U.S. titanium sponge plants were shut down due to environmental concerns, and the country now relies entirely on imports. As the use of scrap and alloys continues to grow, it’s clear that companies looking to stay competitive must address material sourcing challenges to succeed in the future.

DongA Special Metal Scrap Recycling Process

China's Titanium Sponge Exports Rise While Imports Decline in 2024

Titanium Sponge

Increased Demand from Key Markets Drives Export Growth

China's titanium sponge exports rose in 2024 due to increased demand from South Korea, the US, and Japan. According to customs data, exports reached 5,993 tonnes, marking a 2.7% increase from 2023 levels. In December alone, exports surged to 752 tonnes, more than doubling from 359 tonnes a year earlier. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan emerged as the primary buyers, importing 191 tonnes, 290 tonnes, and 80 tonnes, respectively.

South Korea’s imports of Chinese titanium sponge tripled in 2024, reaching 1,565 tonnes compared to 515 tonnes in 2023. Japan’s purchases more than doubled to 1,162 tonnes, while the US saw an almost eight-fold increase, acquiring 1,098 tonnes.

Declining Imports Due to Domestic Supply and Price Differentials

China’s titanium sponge imports fell by 24% in 2024, dropping to 101.9 tonnes from 133.8 tonnes in 2023. The decrease was attributed to sufficient domestic supply and high international prices. In December, China imported only 0.3 tonnes, contrasting with zero imports recorded in November 2024 and December 2023.

The average price for 99.7% grade titanium sponge in China stood at 49,666 yuan ($6,841) per tonne in 2024, or $6.86 per kilogram. In comparison, European titanium sponge prices averaged $11.50 per kilogram, making imports less economically viable for Chinese buyers.

China's Titanium Sponge Production to See Significant Expansion Amid Demand Growth

China's Titanium Sponge

China's titanium sponge production capacity is set to experience a major boost, potentially reaching between 300,000 and 500,000 tonnes per year over the next three to five years, according to An Zhongsheng, secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's titanium zirconium and hafnium branch (CNIA-Ti). This expansion is expected to be driven by increased demand across various sectors including aerospace, marine engineering, chemical production, computer, communication and consumer electronics (3C), daily necessities, and air conditioning, as reported at the China and CIS Titanium Industry Development Forum held in Xi'an, Shaanxi province.

Global civil aviation demand, recovering from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, has put strain on aviation-grade titanium sponge supplies. An emphasized that while the aerospace industry is recovering, industrial sectors are propelling China's titanium market with consistent growth in recent years.

Currently, China's titanium sponge production capacity hovers around 300,000 tonnes per year. In the broader market, titanium's growing use in civilian products is anticipated to be a significant growth catalyst for the Chinese titanium industry.

Although global demand for titanium in the medical industry has surged, Chinese demand in this sector has been hampered by healthcare reforms promoting the use of cost-effective materials. Despite this, prices for titanium sponge are projected to remain relatively stable, enhancing its appeal across a range of applications. An Zhongsheng reassured industry stakeholders that China’s domestic supply of titanium sponge will meet future demands due to planned capacity expansions.

The anticipated rapid growth in titanium sponge production marks a transition for titanium from a rare metal to a more commonly used material, according to An. In the first half of this year, China produced 123,500 tonnes of titanium sponge, according to CNIA-Ti data.

Nevertheless, China continues to rely on imports for approximately 35-40% of its titanium ores and concentrates, reflecting its position in the global supply chain. Last year, global production of titanium ore and concentrate amounted to 8.75 million tonnes (t) of titanium dioxide equivalent, with China contributing 37%, followed by Mozambique (18%), South Africa (11%), and Canada (6%).

In the realm of titanium dioxide production, China led with 55% of global output in 2023, maintaining growth through domestic capacity expansions. Additionally, the world's titanium sponge production rose by 29% to 347,000 tonnes in 2023, with China’s output surging from a 25% share in 2022 to a dominant 63%. Russia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia also witnessed increases in their titanium sponge output, while Ukraine reported zero production.

For titanium mill products, global production in 2023 reached 248,000 tonnes, with China accounting for a commanding 64%, trailed by the United States (14%), Russia (13%), Japan (6%), and Europe (3%).

China's Rising Titanium Sponge Export and the Future of Aerospace Supply Chains

China's Titanium Sponge

A Surplus That Could Fill a Global Gap

With certified titanium sponge supplies projected to hit a deficit in the next four years, China’s output capabilities become increasingly relevant. While traditional producers like Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan near full capacity, major aerospace companies such as Airbus and Safran are considering alternatives to mitigate supply risks. China produced 218,000 tons of titanium sponge in 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of production growth, largely due to domestic oversupply, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

However, introducing Chinese sponge to critical applications is no simple task. Certification timelines for standard quality (SQ) and premium quality (PQ) sponge can extend from three to over five years. The long lead time is essential for parts such as disks and blades in commercial aero engines, where safety standards demand rigorous checks for oxygen and nitrogen contamination. “China’s significant production capabilities are promising, but certification processes and qualification timelines are a major barrier,” said Marty Pike, vice president of global commercial strategy at U.S. metals producer ATI, at a recent titanium industry event in Texas.

Geopolitical Concerns and Legislative Guardrails

While Airbus has signaled openness to exploring Chinese titanium sponge, the decision ultimately lies with engine manufacturers. Other industry leaders, however, cite concerns over potential sanctions that may result from China’s involvement, given rising Asia-Pacific tensions. Any U.S. or EU industries reliant on Chinese titanium sponge could face supply chain vulnerabilities if diplomatic relations falter.

U.S. imports of Chinese titanium sponge are rising despite tariffs, driven by cost pressures. The average price for Chinese imports to the U.S. is notably lower than that from Japan, even after duties, offering an attractive price point. A recent bill, the Securing America’s Titanium Act, seeks to balance this by waiving the standard 15% tariff on titanium sponge but maintaining a 25% tariff on Chinese imports. The proposed legislation also aims to monitor foreign influence over the U.S. supply chain, underscoring the careful stance lawmakers are taking toward titanium imports.

EU and Future Outlook

Europe's titanium sponge import dynamics are less transparent due to limited reporting and autonomous tariff suspensions. Unlike the U.S., EU markets face no duty on imports, making it an attractive market for Chinese exporters. While the aerospace sector remains cautious, other industries such as medical and industrial may more readily accept Chinese sponge as they seek cost-effective solutions.

As the titanium market evolves, balancing supply demands, certification processes, and geopolitical risks will shape the future of titanium sponge in aerospace, with China poised as a powerful, if complex, player in the unfolding narrative.

Chinese Titanium Sponge Prices Plummet Amid Surging Production and Weak Demand

China titanium sponge exports 2020-24 (t)

Chinese titanium sponge prices have dropped to their lowest levels in eight years as the market faces a combination of increased production and waning demand. As of August 1, prices for 99.7% grade titanium sponge were assessed at 49,000-50,000 yuan per ton ($6.89-7.03 per kilogram), marking the lowest point since November 2016 and a decline of 4.8% from late May.

The fall in prices is largely attributed to a surge in output from China's 12 major titanium sponge producers, whose combined production reached 141,600 tons between January and July, a 15% increase from the same period last year. This increase follows the expansion of production capacities, with overall sponge output capacity rising by 23% in 2023 to 320,000 tons per year.

Notably, state-controlled Pangang Titanium Industry and LB Group, the world's largest titanium dioxide producer, have been key players in this expansion. Pangang increased capacity at its Sichuan province facility by adding a 35,000 tons per year production line in September 2023, while LB Group’s subsidiary, Yunnan National Titanium Metal (Guotai), reached its design capacity of 80,000 tons per year at its Xinli plant, making it China's largest sponge producer.

Despite these production increases, the market remains oversupplied, with downstream sectors such as the chemical, military, and civil industries showing sluggish demand. A major titanium mill in Baoji reportedly purchased sponge at 48,000 yuan per ton in late July, anticipating further price drops due to continued weak demand and excessive supply.

Producers have attempted to cut prices to stimulate sales but have struggled to secure large orders. Many buyers are holding off on restocking, expecting prices to decline further in the near term. Analysts suggest that if spot prices fall to 46,000-47,000 yuan per ton, major producers may be forced to cut output.

Exports have provided little relief to the domestic market. China's titanium sponge exports reached 2,426 tons during the first half of 2024, accounting for just 2% of domestic production. While exports nearly doubled year-on-year in June, the overall volume remains insufficient to balance the oversupplied domestic market.

Imports of Russian FeTi Redirect from EU to Asia

Russian ferro-titanium is increasingly being directed toward Asia as EU importers — whether steel mills or intermediaries — have tightened their purchasing strategies in compliance with EU sanctions against Russian ferro-alloys.

EU sanctions against Russian ferro-alloys came into force last December but permitted contracts that pre-dated sanctions to be fulfilled until December 20th this year. After this date, all purchases, imports, or transfers, directly or indirectly, of Russian ferro-alloys will be prohibited. While EU imports are dwindling but have not yet ceased, Asian importers are capitalizing on the surplus of Russian ferro-titanium that is no longer flowing to Europe.

EU imports in January and February were broadly consistent with the fourth quarter of last year, although the number of importing nations narrowed. Imports in March dipped, rebounded in April, and in May, reached their lowest level since September 2022 at 576t.

Non-EU imports increased by a third to 235t in the first quarter and then spiked to 492t in May alone, primarily driven by higher flows to China, alongside regular importers Turkey and South Korea. China imported 100t in April, 260t in May, and 100t in June from Russia. China is no stranger to importing Russian ferro-titanium, having received several thousand tonnes in 2018-21, but it imported only incremental volumes in 2022 and none last year.

China's re-emergence as an importer from Russia both highlights and offsets, as far as Russian sellers are concerned, the EU's gradual withdrawal from the Russian market. This demonstrates a fundamental shift in flows, yet Russia's overall exports are unaffected and even reached a nine-month high in May.

Market participants are unsure why China is importing these volumes from Russia, considering its own ample production capacity and domestic cost structures. Some have posited that these imports are being re-exported, but the cost of doing so to Europe is not profitable.

Chinese ferro-titanium exports in the second quarter hit their highest level in two years at 811t, coinciding with the spike in intake from Russia, underpinning speculation about re-exports of Russian ferro-titanium. Top recipients from China included Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, and the UAE.

Turkish imports from Russia have been sporadic this year, with some market participants linked to banks refusing to clear payments on Russian material transiting through Turkey.

Supply Gap in EU Market Offset by Low Demand

European producers have sufficient capacity to fill any void of Russian units, Metalnomist understands, but they will require more raw materials in the form of sponge or scrap. Scrap availability is still tight in Europe, due to either lower generation or merchants holding on to inventories, and lower machining rates in July and August may compound this issue.

Stretched raw material access and lower imports from Russia initially drove bullish attitudes among producers that prices in the EU market would increase as steel mills would be able to purchase only from certain non-Russian sources.

But these expectations have been undermined in the past month by several third-quarter tenders that have demonstrated persistent availability at lower prices from sellers keen to secure sales in a weak demand environment.

The market, therefore, is caught between supply fundamentals pointing to higher prices, due to tightness in raw materials and a pending loss of Russian supplies, and demand being insufficient to provide impetus for stronger prices.