Aclara HREE Separation Plant Gains $21mn Louisiana Tax Incentive

Aclara

Aclara HREE separation plant plans in Louisiana have gained a significant boost after the state approved an estimated $21mn property tax exemption for the Canadian rare earth developer. The incentive supports Aclara’s effort to build US separation capacity for strategically important heavy rare earth elements.

Aclara HREE separation plant development is aimed at converting mixed rare earth carbonates from Chile and Brazil into separated oxides. Planned products include dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, gadolinium and samarium, alongside neodymium-praseodymium.

Aclara HREE separation plant capacity is particularly important because heavy rare earth separation remains one of the most concentrated parts of the global supply chain. Dysprosium and terbium are critical for high-performance permanent magnets used in defence, aerospace, electric vehicles and industrial motors.

The company aims to break ground in the fourth quarter of 2026 while continuing engineering, permitting and financing work.

Tax Relief Strengthens Louisiana Project Economics

Louisiana approved an 80% exemption from ad valorem property taxes under the state's Industrial Tax Exemption Program. The initial benefit will run for five years.

Aclara expects the exemption to reduce property tax costs by around $4.2mn annually, equivalent to $20.8mn over the initial period. The incentive can also be renewed for another five years.

This support improves the economics of a project that must compete with established Chinese rare earth separation capacity. Heavy rare earth processing requires complex chemistry, specialised equipment and tight product quality control.

The planned facility will have annual production targets of 1,131t of neodymium-praseodymium, 148t of dysprosium and 25t of terbium.

Those heavy rare earth volumes are small compared with bulk commodities but strategically meaningful. Dysprosium and terbium are used in relatively small quantities to improve permanent magnet performance at elevated temperatures.

This makes even modest new western capacity important for defence, automotive and advanced manufacturing customers seeking diversified supply.

Chile and Brazil Feedstocks Link to US Processing

Aclara plans to feed the Louisiana plant with mixed rare earth carbonates produced from its ionic clay resources in South America.

The company’s upstream portfolio includes the Carina project in Brazil and the Penco project in Chile. This creates a potential supply chain linking Latin American mineral resources with downstream separation in the US.

That structure is strategically important. The US needs more rare earth separation capacity, but domestic processing facilities also need reliable feedstock sources outside China.

Aclara’s model addresses both sides by combining South American ionic clay resources with a US-based refining platform.

However, the company still faces execution risk. Engineering, permitting, financing and construction must all advance before the planned plant can move into production.

If successful, the Louisiana facility could become an important source of separated heavy rare earth oxides and strengthen the emerging non-China magnet materials supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aclara’s tax incentive shows that US rare earth policy is increasingly moving from mine support toward midstream separation. The real strategic value lies in connecting South American HREE resources with US processing capacity for dysprosium and terbium.

Los Bronces Andina Joint Mine Plan Targets Major Chile Copper Growth

Codelco

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan has cleared another major milestone after Anglo American and Chilean state-owned Codelco completed their agreement to coordinate development of the neighbouring copper operations.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is expected to unlock an additional 2.7mn t of copper over 21 years from 2030. The companies expect the arrangement to lift combined production by around 120,000 t/yr.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is strategically significant because it creates additional copper supply without relying entirely on a new greenfield mine. Instead, Anglo and Codelco will optimise adjacent resources, infrastructure and mine planning across two established operations.

The agreement is also expected to generate at least $5bn in cost savings. Its implementation remains subject to environmental permitting and other customary conditions, with the joint plan expected to begin around 2030.

Adjacent Mines Create Lower-Cost Copper Growth

Los Bronces and Andina sit next to each other in one of Chile’s most important copper districts. Coordinating development allows the companies to optimise resources that would be less efficiently exploited under separate mine plans.

This type of brownfield growth is increasingly valuable for the copper market. New mines face long permitting periods, rising capital costs and infrastructure challenges, while existing districts can often add production faster through operational integration.

The projected additional 2.7mn t of copper is therefore meaningful for long-term global supply. Copper demand continues to rise across power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification.

Anglo’s Los Bronces operation has already shown improving performance. First-quarter output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second processing plant.

The joint plan could build on that recovery by improving access to ore and creating a more efficient long-term mining configuration across the wider district.

Chile Looks to Joint Development to Lift National Output

The agreement supports Chile’s goal of raising national copper production to 6mn t/yr by 2030. Maintaining that position will require new projects, mine-life extensions and better productivity from existing assets.

Anglo and Codelco expect the joint plan to save at least $5bn while maintaining existing environmental and sustainability commitments. That combination of higher output and lower unit development cost is increasingly important as copper projects become more expensive.

The agreement also allows both companies to continue pursuing standalone projects. For Anglo American, that includes its planned merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group, with a portfolio focused on copper, iron ore and zinc.

Environmental approval remains the key outstanding condition. That means the projected additional copper will not reach the market immediately, but the project strengthens Chile’s long-term supply pipeline.

For the global copper industry, the deal highlights an important growth model. Future supply may increasingly come from cooperation between neighbouring mines, shared infrastructure and more efficient use of existing mineral districts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo-Codelco agreement shows that the next wave of copper growth may come from optimising existing mining districts rather than building entirely new mines. In a market facing long permitting cycles and higher capital costs, adjacent-resource integration can unlock meaningful supply at lower risk.

Mantos Blancos Labor Agreement Reduces Supply Risk as Capstone Eyes Expansion

Capstone Copper

Mantos Blancos labor agreement has reduced near-term operating risk at Capstone Copper’s Chilean mine after both unions representing workers ratified new three-year collective deals. The agreement provides workforce stability as the company studies a meaningful expansion in sulfide milling capacity.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement is strategically important because the site produces copper cathode and remains part of Chile’s broader contribution to global refined copper supply. Labour stability supports production continuity at a time when copper markets remain sensitive to disruptions.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement covers a workforce of 2,928 people, including 1,106 employees and 1,822 contractors. The new deals give Capstone greater operating visibility over the next three years.

The mine has copper cathode production capacity of 60,000 t/yr. First-quarter production reached 10,501t, down 14% from 12,272t a year earlier.

Expansion Could Lift Mantos Blancos Throughput

Capstone is evaluating an increase in sulfide milling capacity at Mantos Blancos from 20,000 t/d to 27,000 t/d. The company filed an environmental permit application for the potential expansion last week.

The proposed increase would strengthen the mine’s ability to process sulfide ore and could improve longer-term copper output if approved and implemented successfully.

This matters because copper supply growth increasingly depends on expansions at existing mines rather than only new greenfield projects. Brownfield projects often have lower execution risk because infrastructure, workforce and operating systems are already in place.

However, the first-quarter production decline shows that current performance still needs attention. Output fell 14% year on year, leaving the mine below the pace implied by its nameplate cathode capacity.

The labour agreement removes one source of uncertainty, allowing management to focus on operational improvement, permitting and expansion planning.

Chile Labor Stability Supports Capstone’s Copper Strategy

Capstone has also secured labour stability at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Earlier this year, the company reached a three-year collective bargaining agreement with a union representing about half of the workforce there.

Together, the agreements reduce labour-related supply risk across Capstone’s Chilean portfolio. That is important because prolonged strikes in Chile can have meaningful effects on mine output and concentrate availability.

Chile remains one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries, so workforce stability at individual mines has wider market relevance.

For Capstone, the next challenge is to convert that stability into production growth. Mantos Blancos needs stronger output, while the proposed milling expansion must move through environmental approval and capital execution.

The combination of labour certainty and expansion potential gives the company a stronger platform. But the market will still watch operating performance closely after the weaker first quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Capstone has removed a key operating risk at Mantos Blancos just as it considers a larger sulfide milling footprint. The bigger question now is whether labour stability can translate into higher throughput and more reliable copper output.

Chile Copper Production Falls as Mature Mines and Acid Costs Pressure Supply

Chile Copper minnig

Chile copper production fell sharply in the first quarter, deepening concerns over near-term supply from the world’s largest copper-producing country. Output declined by 5.8% year on year to 1.217mn t.

Chile copper production weakness was driven by lower output from mature mines, softer grades and weaker refined cathode production. March was especially weak, with national copper output down 9% from a year earlier.

Chile copper production matters because the global copper market is already facing tight concentrate availability, fragile refined flows and stronger demand from grids, electrification and data centres.

The decline reinforces a core market concern. Higher copper prices are not quickly translating into higher mine output, especially in countries where ageing assets and delayed projects continue to limit supply response.

Concentrate Output Falls as Major Mines Underperform

Chile’s copper concentrate output fell by 6% year on year to around 947,000t in the first quarter. Concentrates accounted for almost 78% of the country’s total mine output.

The weakness was visible across both state-owned and private producers. Escondida remained Chile’s largest copper mine with 311,600t in the quarter, followed by Codelco at 299,600t, including stakes in El Abra and Anglo American Sur.

Codelco’s own divisions produced around 271,600t. The company is targeting 1.344mn t this year after producing about 1.33mn t in 2025.

The first-quarter result keeps pressure on Codelco to stabilise output after several years of structural underperformance. Ageing mines, delayed projects and higher operating costs remain key constraints.

March data showed broad weakness at the largest mines. Codelco output fell by nearly 10% year on year to 110,900t, while Escondida declined by almost 16% to 101,600t.

Collahuasi, jointly owned by Glencore and Anglo American, produced 31,400t in March, down 10.8% from a year earlier. Its first-quarter output totalled 88,200t.

Other major producers also faced pressure. Los Pelambres produced 69,600t, Anglo American Sur 58,200t, Quebrada Blanca 55,500t and Spence 44,600t during the quarter.

Antofagasta produced 143,000t of copper in the quarter. The company cited lower processing rates and weaker grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela concentrates.

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca was one of the more stable performers. The mine produced 55,500t despite planned maintenance and a shorter February, supported by stronger March throughput and recoveries.

SX-EW Cathode Weakness Exposes Chile to Acid and Fuel Costs

Chile’s refined SX-EW cathode output reached 269,300t in the first quarter. January output increased, but February and March both fell from a year earlier.

Refined electrolytic cathode output was weaker at 107,000t. March production fell by 38.7% year on year, pulling total refined cathode output to about 376,300t.

This matters because Chile’s oxide and SX-EW operations are increasingly exposed to sulphuric acid availability and pricing. Acid is a reagent cost for leaching operations.

Smelters can benefit from higher sulphuric acid prices when they sell acid as a by-product. SX-EW producers face the opposite exposure, as higher acid costs directly pressure operating margins.

Higher diesel prices are adding to the problem. Codelco said Middle East-related cost increases lifted its cash cost by at least 10¢/lb.

Antucoya also showed the cost pressure. Output weakened, while costs rose by 23% year on year to $3.03/lb on higher sulphuric acid and diesel prices.

Chile’s investment pipeline remains significant but long-dated. Freeport-McMoRan has started environmental permitting for a $7.5bn expansion of El Abra.

The project aims to lift production to around 300,000 t/yr from 91,400t in 2025. But it requires a new concentrator and desalination plant and is not expected to start until the next decade.

That timing is critical for the market. Chile has projects, but they will not solve immediate supply tightness.

The first-quarter decline therefore strengthens copper’s structural bull case. Global demand is rising, while Chile’s mature mine base is struggling to deliver stable growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper problem is no longer only grade decline; it is now a combined issue of mine maturity, acid exposure, fuel costs and delayed expansion. The market should treat Chilean supply recovery as a slow process, not a quick response to record copper prices.

Copper Record High Signals Deeper Supply Stress Across Global Market

Copper

Copper record high prices on the London Metal Exchange show how quickly supply risks, regional stockbuilding and stronger Chinese demand signals are reshaping the market. Three-month LME copper settled at $14,140/t, setting a new official high and reinforcing the metal’s structural bull case.

Copper record high momentum has not come from one isolated event. It reflects a convergence of mine disruption, weak Chilean output, tight concentrate availability, sulphuric acid constraints and US tariff-related stockbuilding.

Copper record high pricing is also being supported by stronger Chinese import signals. The Yangshan copper premium rose to around $72/t, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen by 58% since 13 March to 181,333t.

Comex copper also traded at record levels at $6.485/lb, with the US contract holding a premium of nearly $700/t over LME copper. That spread shows how US tariff risk continues to pull refined metal into the American market.

Supply Risks Now Dominate Copper Pricing

Supply pressure remains the strongest driver behind the rally. Chile’s three largest copper producers all reported lower March output, with Codelco down by around 10%, Escondida down by nearly 16% and Collahuasi down by almost 11%.

Chile’s national copper output fell by around 9% over the same period. That decline matters because the market has limited spare mine capacity to absorb losses from the world’s largest copper-producing country.

Lower ore grades remain a structural problem. Ageing infrastructure, operational interruptions and delayed modernisation projects are also reducing the ability of major mines to respond quickly to higher prices.

Copper concentrate treatment charges are deeply negative in China, confirming the pressure on concentrate availability. Smelters are competing for feedstock while mine supply remains constrained.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have also become more important market variables. Middle East disruption and Chinese restrictions on sulphuric acid exports are raising risks for leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning operations.

This is especially relevant to the African copperbelt, where sulphuric acid is a critical reagent. If acid availability tightens further, production costs could rise or output could be affected in one of the world’s key copper growth regions.

Peru adds another risk point. Open-pit copper mines there depend heavily on diesel for haulage and mine movement, making sustained fuel disruption a potential operational threat.

China Demand and US Stockbuilding Split Refined Flows

China is returning as a stronger buyer of imported cathode. Falling SHFE inventories and a higher Yangshan premium suggest that domestic availability has tightened enough to revive seaborne buying interest.

China’s stronger export data also support the demand picture. April exports rose by 14.1% year on year to a record $359.44bn, beating expectations and pointing to more resilient industrial activity.

That matters for copper because electric vehicles, grid equipment, renewable energy components and battery storage all require significant copper input. Stronger industrial exports can therefore reinforce physical demand.

At the same time, US policy risk is pulling refined copper west. Tariff-related stockbuilding has created a strong Comex premium, encouraging traders to move metal into the US system.

This split is tightening ex-US availability. The US is absorbing refined units for policy protection, while China is pulling cathode back into its import market.

Fund activity has amplified the move. Trend-following money has re-entered Comex as copper broke through technical levels, making prices more sensitive to momentum flows.

The current rally may still face corrections. However, the price floor remains supported by slow mine response, fragile processing inputs and competing regional demand centres.

Copper is no longer trading only as an industrial cycle indicator. It is becoming a strategic material shaped by policy, infrastructure demand, energy transition, AI-linked power systems and supply-chain security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s record is not just a price event; it is a signal that the supply chain is losing flexibility. The strongest warning is that mine output, processing inputs and refined metal location are all tightening at the same time.

India Critical Minerals Supply Chain Faces Funding Gap Despite Policy Push

Indonesia nickel mining

India critical minerals supply chain ambitions face a major financing test as the country tries to reduce dependence on imported lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth materials. A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis warns that funding gaps, slow policy execution and raw material import dependence could delay India’s strategy.

India critical minerals supply chain development is becoming urgent because the country imports 100% of the lithium, cobalt and nickel used in clean energy manufacturing. Demand is expected to rise as India targets 30% electric vehicle penetration by 2030, along with 230GW of solar capacity and 140GW of wind capacity.

India critical minerals supply chain policy has moved quickly on paper. The government launched the National Critical Mineral Mission in January 2025 with a seven-year budget of 343bn rupees to support exploration and auctions.

However, the mission still lacks enough direct capital expenditure support for large-scale mining, refining and processing. That is the central weakness in India’s current critical minerals push.

Exploration Targets Need Processing Capital

The National Critical Mineral Mission targets 1,200 exploration projects and more than 100 critical mineral block auctions by 2030-31. This can improve domestic resource visibility, but exploration alone will not create battery, magnet or semiconductor supply chains.

Critical minerals projects require large upfront capital, long permitting timelines and technical processing capability. Mining projects can take 10-15 years to move from exploration to commercial production, creating long periods of uncertainty for investors.

India has identified major resource potential. The country reported 5.9mn t of inferred lithium resources in Jammu and Kashmir as of 2023. It also holds 13.15mn t of monazite deposits containing an estimated 7.23mn t of rare earth oxides.

The Geological Survey of India also identified 482.6mn t of rare earth ore resources through exploration projects in February. These figures suggest significant geological potential, but they do not solve the refining and separation challenge.

Rare earths are a clear example. Monazite and rare earth ore must be separated, purified, converted into metals or alloys, and qualified by downstream users before they can support magnets, defence systems, electronics or clean energy applications.

India’s midstream sector also faces pressure from Chinese overcapacity. China controls around 60-70% of global refining and processing capacity for key minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, and about 90% of rare earth refining.

That dominance suppresses margins and makes new Indian refining projects harder to finance. Without price support, offtake contracts or direct capital backing, investors may hesitate to fund projects that compete against established Chinese capacity.

Import Dependence Extends Beyond Battery Metals

India’s critical minerals strategy now reaches beyond battery materials. The government classified coking coal as a critical and strategic mineral in January to reduce import dependence and support steel expansion.

This widens the funding challenge. India aims to increase crude steel production capacity to 300mn t/yr by 2030 and 500mn t/yr by 2047. Its Mission Coking Coal targets domestic output of 140mn t/yr by 2030, up from 66.49mn t/yr in fiscal 2025-26.

These goals will require long-term investment in mining, washing, transport, processing and related infrastructure. That makes critical minerals policy a broader industrial financing issue, not only an energy transition issue.

India is also seeking overseas supply partnerships. It is working with Australia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and Côte d’Ivoire to secure access to critical minerals.

State-backed Khanij Bidesh India is also pursuing overseas lithium and cobalt assets. These efforts can reduce raw material risk, but they still need downstream processing and domestic industrial integration.

The global funding requirement is enormous. The International Energy Agency estimates that mining and refining will need $915bn in new investment during 2026-35 under its Announced Pledges Scenario.

For India, the strategic question is how to convert policy ambition into bankable projects. Auctions and exploration can identify resources, but refining plants, processing hubs, offtake agreements and financing tools will decide whether domestic supply chains actually emerge.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India has recognised the critical minerals problem, but recognition is not the same as industrial capacity. The next stage must focus on project finance, refining economics and guaranteed demand, or India will remain dependent on imported materials despite its resource potential.

Barrick Copper Output Rises as Lumwana Expansion Anchors Growth Outlook

Barrick

Barrick copper output rose in the first quarter as stronger production from the Lumwana mine in Zambia supported the company’s wider copper growth strategy. The Canadian miner produced 49,000t of copper during the quarter, up 11% from 44,000t a year earlier.

Barrick copper output increased in line with expectations, although copper sales fell by 12% to 45,000t. The production gain reinforces Barrick’s focus on copper as a long-term growth metal alongside its gold business.

Barrick copper output remains guided at 190,000-220,000t for the full year. The company expects production to be stronger in the second half.

The copper business generated revenue of $556mn in the first quarter, up 17% from $474mn a year earlier. Group revenue rose to $5.2bn, while profit increased to $1.6bn.

Lumwana Drives Near-Term Copper Momentum

Lumwana was the main driver of Barrick’s first-quarter copper increase. The Zambian mine produced 32,000t during the quarter, up 19% from 27,000t a year earlier.

The operation has not faced concentrate shipment problems because all of its concentrate is smelted locally. This gives Lumwana a logistical advantage at a time when copper supply chains are increasingly exposed to transport, smelting and regional infrastructure constraints.

Barrick is now working on a major expansion at Lumwana. Once the mill expansion is completed, throughput is expected to rise to 52mn t/yr from 27mn t/yr.

The expansion is expected to lift copper production at the site to 240,000 t/yr, more than double current annual output. First copper from the expansion is expected in the first quarter of 2028.

This makes Lumwana one of Barrick’s most important copper growth assets. It also strengthens Zambia’s role in global copper supply as governments and manufacturers seek more secure sources of the metal for electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure.

Jabal Sayid Improves as Zaldivar and Reko Diq Face Pressure

Barrick’s Jabal Sayid joint venture with Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia produced 18,000t of copper in the first quarter, up from 17,000t a year earlier. Barrick owns half of the project.

The Zaldivar joint venture in Chile with Antofagasta produced 16,000t, down 11% from a year earlier. Barrick also owns half of that operation.

The mixed project performance shows how Barrick’s copper portfolio remains dependent on mine-specific operating conditions. Zambia provided the upside, while Chile reduced the overall gain.

Barrick’s longer-term copper pipeline also includes Reko Diq in Pakistan. However, the company said in March that it plans to slow development activity there because of security risks in Pakistan and the Middle East.

Several contractors at Reko Diq have sent force majeure notices to Barrick. This underlines the political and security challenges facing large copper growth projects in higher-risk jurisdictions.

The broader supply-chain message is clear. Copper demand is rising, but new production depends on execution, security, local smelting, infrastructure and permitting. Barrick’s Lumwana expansion is advancing, while Reko Diq shows how geopolitical risk can slow even major resource projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Barrick’s copper growth story is increasingly centred on Lumwana because it combines scale, expansion potential and local smelting access. The company’s challenge is to convert copper optionality into reliable supply while security risks delay larger frontier projects such as Reko Diq.

Novandino Lithium Investment Targets $3.5bn Expansion in Chile’s Atacama

Novandino

Novandino lithium investment plans could reshape Chile’s lithium supply outlook as the producer prepares to spend more than $3.5bn to expand output and extend operations at the Atacama salt lake until 2060.

Novandino lithium investment will focus on the Salar Futuro project, which is designed to take production, sustainability and community engagement to a higher level. The company is close to submitting the project’s environmental impact study.

Novandino lithium investment remains subject to environmental approval. That approval is essential because the company needs authorisation for its Atacama operations in northern Chile’s Antofagasta region to continue beyond 2030.

The company is a joint venture between Chile’s state copper miner Codelco and SQM. Its expansion is strategically important because Chile remains one of the world’s most important lithium producers, but new project approvals have moved slowly.

Salar Futuro Could Extend Atacama Output to 2060

Salar Futuro is central to Novandino’s long-term growth strategy. The project would support continued operations at the Atacama salt lake while lifting production and improving environmental performance.

The company expects to produce 270,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026. Output is then expected to rise to 300,000t in 2027-2028, compared with 233,000t last year.

That growth would strengthen Chile’s position in global lithium supply at a time when Argentina is expanding rapidly and challenging Chile’s regional leadership.

The environmental impact study will be the key near-term milestone. Without approval, the company cannot secure the long operating extension needed to justify the investment.

Chile’s lithium sector has enormous resource strength, but regulatory complexity has slowed new supply. Novandino’s ability to advance Salar Futuro will therefore be closely watched by battery makers, automakers and lithium chemical buyers.

Technology Mix Targets Higher Efficiency and Lower Water Use

Novandino plans to use a combination of next-generation technologies to improve production efficiency and sustainability. The company is considering membrane filtration, mechanical evaporation and direct lithium extraction.

This technology mix matters because Chile’s lithium expansion is increasingly tied to environmental and community expectations. Brine operations must show better water performance, lower ecological impact and stronger local engagement.

The company said its water intensity per unit of production has fallen by 75% since 2016. That improvement is strategically important in the Atacama, where water use remains one of the most sensitive issues for lithium development.

Direct lithium extraction could also become an important part of Chile’s future production model. However, DLE must be adapted to each brine chemistry, making execution, cost control and scale-up critical.

For Chile, the project is more than a company-level expansion. It is a test of whether the country can grow lithium supply while meeting stricter sustainability standards and maintaining state participation through Codelco.

For the battery supply chain, higher Atacama output would provide more lithium carbonate equivalent from an established producing region. But timing will depend on environmental approval, technology deployment and project execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Novandino’s $3.5bn plan shows that Chile still has the resource base to defend its lithium position. The real challenge is whether regulatory approval and new extraction technologies can move fast enough to keep pace with Argentina’s accelerating project pipeline.

Lundin Copper Output Rises as Caserones Grades Lift First-Quarter Production

Lundin Mining

Lundin copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Caserones mine in Chile offset lower grades at Candelaria. The Canadian miner produced 79,934t of copper during the quarter, up 7% from a year earlier.

Lundin copper output was led by Caserones, where production rose by 34.3% to 38,552t. The increase was driven by unexpectedly higher copper concentrate grades, making Caserones the largest contributor to the company’s quarterly copper production.

Lundin copper output remains on track with the company’s 2026 guidance of 310,000-335,000t. The result reinforces Lundin’s increasingly copper-focused strategy after recent asset sales reduced its exposure to zinc and nickel.

The company now generates 85% of quarterly revenue from copper. That shift gives Lundin more direct exposure to long-term demand from grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure.

Caserones Strength Offsets Candelaria Grade Pressure

Caserones was the clear operating driver in the first quarter. Higher grades lifted copper output and helped offset weaker performance elsewhere in Chile.

The mine also produced 589t of molybdenum in the quarter, down 2.2% from a year earlier. Molybdenum remains a valuable by-product because of its role in special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-temperature industrial applications.

Candelaria produced 30,808t of copper, down 16.9% from a year earlier because of lower grades. The decline shows how sensitive copper output remains to ore quality, even at established assets.

Brazil’s Chapada mine produced 10,574t of copper. This gave Lundin additional geographic diversity across its copper portfolio, although Chile remained the dominant contributor.

The mixed mine performance highlights a common copper industry pattern. Higher grades at one asset can offset weakness at another, but sustained production growth still depends on grade control, mill performance and operational reliability.

Vicuna Project Anchors Lundin’s Long-Term Copper Growth

Lundin’s longer-term growth story is increasingly tied to the Vicuna copper project on the Argentina-Chile border. The company published a technical study for the project in the first quarter.

Vicuna is planned to produce more than 500,000 t/yr of copper once fully operational. If developed successfully, it could become one of the more important new copper growth projects in the Americas.

The project matters because new large-scale copper supply remains difficult to bring to market. Permitting, capital intensity, infrastructure, water access and cross-border complexity will all shape Vicuna’s development path.

Lundin has also simplified its portfolio. It completed the sale of the US-based Eagle mine to Talon Metals at the start of the quarter, further concentrating the business around copper.

The company previously sold its Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal and Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden to Boliden. Those assets were Lundin’s only zinc-producing mines, leaving the company with a much clearer copper-led structure.

For investors and industrial buyers, that portfolio shift is important. Lundin is positioning itself more directly around copper’s strategic demand growth rather than maintaining a broader base metals mix.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s first quarter shows the value of becoming a focused copper producer at a time when copper is becoming a strategic industrial material. The next question is whether Vicuna can move from technical promise to bankable supply in a market that needs large, reliable copper projects.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Argentina Lithium Growth Could Challenge Chile’s Regional Lead

Argentina Lithium

Argentina lithium growth could reshape Latin America’s lithium map over the next decade as new projects advance under more investor-friendly rules. Argentina is expected to match Chile’s lithium output by 2035, with some industry participants arguing it could overtake Chile even earlier.

Argentina lithium growth is being supported by faster permitting, large brine resources and stronger investment incentives. By contrast, Chile’s lithium expansion remains constrained by restrictive legislation, lengthy approval processes and uncertainty around new project development.

Argentina lithium growth is strategically important because lithium remains central to electric vehicles, energy storage and battery supply chains. Global buyers want large-scale, politically stable and western hemisphere supply outside more exposed jurisdictions.

Chile remains the region’s largest producer today. However, its future output growth depends heavily on existing producers and slow-moving new projects, while Argentina has a deeper pipeline of advanced developments.

Chile’s Lithium Policy Slows New Supply

Chile has long been Latin America’s dominant lithium producer, but its regulatory system is limiting new investment. Lithium remains non-concessionable and is still treated under legislation linked to nuclear materials.

Companies seeking to extract lithium in Chile must apply for special mining contracts. These contracts are granted through public bidding processes that can be lengthy, bureaucratic and uncertain.

This creates a major exploration problem. Companies may be reluctant to explore land if they cannot be confident of later securing extraction rights.

Chile’s national lithium strategy also requires all new projects to use direct lithium extraction. DLE is viewed as more environmentally friendly than traditional evaporation ponds, but it creates technical and cost challenges.

Each DLE process must be designed around the specific chemistry of each brine resource. That means technology used at one salar cannot simply be copied at another.

This raises development costs and lengthens project timelines. Industry participants estimate that DLE projects may require investment of up to $44,000 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent, compared with about $26,000/t for evaporation projects.

Chile’s new supply pipeline is therefore moving slowly. The first major new project, Rio Tinto’s Maricunga, is expected only by the end of 2030, with another new project expected in 2032.

Until then, Chile may rely mainly on capacity increases from existing producers. That could limit its ability to respond to rising lithium demand if Argentina’s project pipeline accelerates.

Argentina’s Rigi Regime Attracts Lithium Capital

Argentina is moving in the opposite direction. Its government has streamlined licensing and introduced the Rigi incentive regime for large investments.

Rigi provides tax exemptions, import-export benefits and legal protections for approved projects. It also allows companies to settle certain disputes in courts outside Argentina, improving investor confidence.

Ten lithium projects have already applied to Rigi, with three approved. The programme has become a major signal to international investors seeking policy stability and faster project execution.

Argentina now has more than 60 active lithium projects and seven producing assets, the most in Latin America. Two new developments are expected to come on line this year, lifting projected output to 159,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

That remains below Chile’s 305,000t in 2024. However, Argentina has more than 20 projects in advanced stages, including eight close to production.

Argentina’s mining ministry expects output to reach 583,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. That would put the country in position to match or overtake Chile if Chile’s permitting regime does not change.

The investment logic is clear. Argentina offers large brine resources, a more open policy framework and exposure to western hemisphere supply chains. That combination is increasingly attractive to battery makers, automakers and mining companies.

Chile still has enormous lithium potential. But potential alone does not create supply. Without faster approvals and clearer rules, Chile risks losing regional leadership to Argentina.

For the lithium market, this shift matters. Argentina’s rise could increase competition, diversify supply and give buyers more options in South America. It could also make Latin America’s lithium growth less dependent on Chile’s policy choices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium advantage is not only geological; it is regulatory. Chile still has world-class resources, but Argentina is turning policy speed into supply-chain momentum.

Grasberg Copper Mine Recovery Delay Tightens Indonesia Supply Outlook

Grasberg Copper Mine

Grasberg copper mine recovery has been delayed after Freeport-McMoRan reported slower progress at its Indonesian operation following last year’s fatal mud rush accident. The company now expects the Grasberg Block Cave to recover more gradually than previously planned.

The Grasberg copper mine recovery delay is important because Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper assets. Any slower restart affects global mine supply at a time when copper demand remains tied to grids, data centres, electrification and industrial policy.

The Grasberg copper mine recovery outlook has been cut because wet drawpoints increased inside the mine after the incident and subsequent suspension of mining activity. Freeport said it must upgrade ore loading infrastructure before production can recover more fully.

Freeport now expects Grasberg to reach only 65% of production capacity by the second half of this year. It previously expected the mine to reach 85% in that period.

Grasberg Restart Slows After Underground Infrastructure Issues

The progressive restart of Grasberg Block Cave has been slower than expected. The increase in wet drawpoints has limited mining activity and created a need for infrastructure upgrades.

Freeport now expects Grasberg to reach about 85% of capacity by mid-2027. The company expects the mine to approach full capacity by the end of 2027.

That marks a clear delay from the previous plan. Freeport had earlier expected Grasberg to return to full production capacity by the end of 2027.

The production impact was visible in the first quarter. Freeport’s Indonesian copper output fell by 68% on the year to 95mn lbs because of the Grasberg disruption.

Across Freeport’s global operations, copper output fell by 24% on the year to 662mn lbs. The decline shows how heavily the company’s production profile depends on a stable Grasberg recovery.

US operations partly offset the Indonesian weakness. Copper production from Freeport’s seven mines in the southwest US rose by 3% on the year to 309mn lbs.

Output from the company’s mines in Peru and Chile fell by 4.8% to 258mn lbs. Lower leach placements weighed on production across those assets.

Higher Copper Prices Offset Lower Production

Freeport’s first-quarter financial results were supported by stronger copper prices. Average copper prices rose by 30.1% on the year to $5.78/lb.

Unit production costs also improved. Freeport’s per-unit costs fell by 7.7% to $1.91/lb.

This helped offset lower production and sales volumes. Copper sales volumes fell by 25% from a year earlier, although they were 3% above Freeport’s January estimate.

Freeport’s profit more than doubled to $881mn in the first quarter. Revenue rose by 8.8% to $6.2bn.

The result shows the current copper market tension. Operational supply is weaker, but higher prices are protecting margins for major producers.

Molybdenum performance was mixed. Consolidated molybdenum production fell by 4% to 22mn lbs, while sales volumes rose by 20% to 24mn lbs.

For the copper market, the delayed Grasberg recovery adds another supply-side risk. Indonesia has been expected to support global copper growth, but mine-level disruptions continue to limit output.

The issue also reinforces a broader industry problem. Large underground copper mines can take years to stabilise after major incidents, and infrastructure bottlenecks can delay recovery even when restart work has begun.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Grasberg delay shows why copper supply cannot be judged only by long-term resource size. A single underground disruption at a world-class mine can reshape near-term supply and strengthen copper’s strategic premium.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant Reaches 80% Capacity as Ramp-Up Recovers

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant

Eramet Argentina lithium plant performance improved sharply in March as the Centenario-Ratones project reached around 80% of its designed capacity. The French mining group said the plant operated near 80% of its 24,000 t/yr nameplate capacity after recovering from February production setbacks.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant is strategically important because Argentina is becoming one of the fastest-growing lithium supply regions globally. Stronger output from Centenario-Ratones supports the country’s push to challenge Chile’s long-standing lithium leadership.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant produced 3,720t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter. Output was limited by downstream equipment shutdowns and natural gas supply constraints, but operations normalised in March.

Centenario-Ratones Recovers After February Disruptions

Eramet temporarily shut part of its downstream equipment in February for an extended period. The work was designed to implement improvements and support the ramp-up process.

Natural gas supply constraints also limited production during the quarter. These disruptions show that lithium brine projects depend not only on resource quality, but also on reliable processing equipment and energy supply.

Centenario-Ratones achieved its highest production rate to date in March. This suggests the project is moving closer to stable commercial performance after early ramp-up challenges.

The ramp-up is expected to be completed by July at the latest. If achieved, this would strengthen Eramet’s position in Argentina’s lithium supply chain and improve near-term lithium carbonate availability.

Lithium Sales Highlight Stronger Price Environment

Eramet sold 3,920t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter, generating €57mn in revenue. That implies an average realised price of roughly $16,986/t.

The first-quarter lithium revenue already exceeded Eramet’s lithium revenue for all of 2025. This highlights the impact of stronger lithium carbonate prices and improving sales volumes.

The result matters for project economics. Higher lithium prices can support ramp-up costs, equipment improvements and working capital needs during the early production phase.

For Argentina, Centenario-Ratones adds to a growing pipeline of lithium projects backed by more investor-friendly policies. Successful ramp-up would reinforce Argentina’s role as a major future source of lithium carbonate for battery supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Centenario-Ratones shows both the opportunity and execution risk in Argentina’s lithium growth story. Strong prices improve project economics, but stable energy supply and processing reliability will decide whether ramp-up targets become sustained production.

Argentina Lithium Growth Could Challenge Chile’s Regional Lead

Argentina Lithium

Argentina lithium growth could reshape Latin America’s lithium map over the next decade as new projects advance under more investor-friendly rules. Argentina is expected to match Chile’s lithium output by 2035, with some industry participants arguing it could overtake Chile even earlier.

Argentina lithium growth is being supported by faster permitting, large brine resources and stronger investment incentives. By contrast, Chile’s lithium expansion remains constrained by restrictive legislation, lengthy approval processes and uncertainty around new project development.

Argentina lithium growth is strategically important because lithium remains central to electric vehicles, energy storage and battery supply chains. Global buyers want large-scale, politically stable and western hemisphere supply outside more exposed jurisdictions.

Chile remains the region’s largest producer today. However, its future output growth depends heavily on existing producers and slow-moving new projects, while Argentina has a deeper pipeline of advanced developments.

Chile’s Lithium Policy Slows New Supply

Chile has long been Latin America’s dominant lithium producer, but its regulatory system is limiting new investment. Lithium remains non-concessionable and is still treated under legislation linked to nuclear materials.

Companies seeking to extract lithium in Chile must apply for special mining contracts. These contracts are granted through public bidding processes that can be lengthy, bureaucratic and uncertain.

This creates a major exploration problem. Companies may be reluctant to explore land if they cannot be confident of later securing extraction rights.

Chile’s national lithium strategy also requires all new projects to use direct lithium extraction. DLE is viewed as more environmentally friendly than traditional evaporation ponds, but it creates technical and cost challenges.

Each DLE process must be designed around the specific chemistry of each brine resource. That means technology used at one salar cannot simply be copied at another.

This raises development costs and lengthens project timelines. Industry participants estimate that DLE projects may require investment of up to $44,000 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent, compared with about $26,000/t for evaporation projects.

Chile’s new supply pipeline is therefore moving slowly. The first major new project, Rio Tinto’s Maricunga, is expected only by the end of 2030, with another new project expected in 2032.

Until then, Chile may rely mainly on capacity increases from existing producers. That could limit its ability to respond to rising lithium demand if Argentina’s project pipeline accelerates.

Argentina’s Rigi Regime Attracts Lithium Capital

Argentina is moving in the opposite direction. Its government has streamlined licensing and introduced the Rigi incentive regime for large investments.

Rigi provides tax exemptions, import-export benefits and legal protections for approved projects. It also allows companies to settle certain disputes in courts outside Argentina, improving investor confidence.

Ten lithium projects have already applied to Rigi, with three approved. The programme has become a major signal to international investors seeking policy stability and faster project execution.

Argentina now has more than 60 active lithium projects and seven producing assets, the most in Latin America. Two new developments are expected to come on line this year, lifting projected output to 159,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

That remains below Chile’s 305,000t in 2024. However, Argentina has more than 20 projects in advanced stages, including eight close to production.

Argentina’s mining ministry expects output to reach 583,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. That would put the country in position to match or overtake Chile if Chile’s permitting regime does not change.

The investment logic is clear. Argentina offers large brine resources, a more open policy framework and exposure to western hemisphere supply chains. That combination is increasingly attractive to battery makers, automakers and mining companies.

Chile still has enormous lithium potential. But potential alone does not create supply. Without faster approvals and clearer rules, Chile risks losing regional leadership to Argentina.

For the lithium market, this shift matters. Argentina’s rise could increase competition, diversify supply and give buyers more options in South America. It could also make Latin America’s lithium growth less dependent on Chile’s policy choices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium advantage is not only geological; it is regulatory. Chile still has world-class resources, but Argentina is turning policy speed into supply-chain momentum.

Teck Copper Production Rises as All Four Mines Lift First-Quarter Output

Teck

Teck copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as all four of the Canadian miner’s copper operations delivered higher output. The company produced 140,000t of copper in January-March, up 32% from a year earlier.

Teck copper production growth was broad-based, with gains from Quebrada Blanca, Highland Valley, Antamina and Carmen de Andacollo. The result strengthens Teck’s position in a market increasingly focused on copper supply security for grids, electrification and industrial infrastructure.

Teck copper production remains on track with the company’s 2026 guidance of 455,000-530,000t. The first-quarter performance gives Teck a strong start to the year, despite planned maintenance at Quebrada Blanca and mixed recovery performance at some assets.

The stronger copper result also supported earnings. Teck reported first-quarter profit of C$809mn, up from C$313mn a year earlier.

Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley Drive Copper Growth

Quebrada Blanca produced 55,500t of copper in the first quarter, up 31% from a year earlier. The increase came despite a planned maintenance shutdown early in the period.

Teck is implementing an action plan at Quebrada Blanca this year to improve production. The mine remains central to the company’s copper growth profile in Chile.

Highland Valley in Canada also delivered a strong quarter. Copper output rose by 36% to 40,200t, mainly because of higher grades and stronger mill throughput.

Lower recovery rates partly offset the improvement at Highland Valley. Still, the mine’s performance shows how grade and throughput improvements can quickly lift output when processing capacity is available.

Antamina in Peru also contributed to the copper increase. The mine, jointly owned by Teck, BHP, Glencore and Mitsubishi, produced 135,000t of copper, up 42%.

Carmen de Andacollo in Chile produced 13,900t, up 7% from a year earlier. Higher copper grades and stronger recovery rates supported the increase.

The result highlights the value of portfolio diversification. Teck’s copper growth did not depend on one asset alone, reducing the operational risk of isolated maintenance or recovery issues.

Zinc Weakness Offsets Some Base Metals Strength

Teck’s zinc performance was weaker than copper. Total zinc-in-concentrate production fell by 12% to 120,300t, reflecting planned activity at Red Dog and Antamina.

Zinc sales fell more sharply, dropping by 35% to 69,700t. This reduced the contribution from Teck’s zinc concentrate business during the quarter.

However, refined zinc output at Trail in British Columbia rose by 27% to 73,800t. The Trail operation remains important because it connects Teck’s mining output with downstream refined metal and by-product production.

By-product output at Trail, including silver and germanium, was steady on the year. Germanium remains strategically important because of its use in fibre optics, infrared systems, semiconductors and defence-related applications.

Teck is working with the Canadian government to explore options to increase germanium production. This could strengthen Canada’s role in critical minerals supply, especially as western buyers seek more non-Chinese sources of minor metals.

The Middle East conflict is not expected to significantly disrupt Teck’s fuel supply. However, the company warned that higher diesel costs could affect its Chilean operations, where fuel must be imported.

This cost risk matters for copper miners. Even when production is strong, fuel, reagents, logistics and power costs can influence margins and project economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s first-quarter copper growth shows the strategic value of diversified mine exposure across Canada, Chile and Peru. The next focus will be whether Quebrada Blanca’s action plan can convert early momentum into sustained copper growth while zinc and diesel cost pressures remain manageable.