USAC Antimony Expansion Targets July Start for US Defense Stockpile Supply

USAC Antimony

USAC antimony expansion at Thompson Falls in Montana is expected to be fully online by mid-July, strengthening US domestic supply of a critical defense metal. The company has started commissioning the smelter expansion and plans to bring operations online in phases.

USAC antimony expansion will add capacity at a time when Washington is trying to secure antimony ingots for the national defense stockpile. Antimony is used in ammunition, flame retardants, alloys and other defense-related applications.

USAC antimony expansion depends on the arrival of furnace parts expected in the last week of May. The company plans to start one to two furnaces each week until all nine furnaces are operating around mid-July.

By the end of July, US Antimony expects the expansion to produce at nearly 80% of its 230 t/month capacity. The company then plans to temporarily shut its older 75 t/month plant for four to eight weeks for maintenance and emissions upgrades.

Montana Capacity Supports Fixed-Price DLA Contract

The Thompson Falls expansion is directly tied to US Antimony’s five-year fixed-price contract with the Defense Logistics Agency. The contract covers 6.7mn lb, or 3,039t, of antimony ingots for the national defense stockpile and is worth up to $245mn.

USAC has received $12mn in DLA sales orders to date. It has also received the first two delivery notices for finished antimony ingots to the Department of Defense.

The federal contract will become a major revenue driver. USAC expects $75mn-95mn of its estimated $125mn revenue in 2026 to come from shipments to the US government.

That structure makes the Montana expansion strategically important. The project is not only a capacity increase; it is part of a government-backed supply chain for a material with limited domestic production.

USAC’s antimony inventories also increased sharply. Inventories reached $21.7mn at the end of the first quarter, up from $12mn at the end of 2025.

However, execution has not been smooth. The expansion was initially expected to be completed in January but was delayed by supplier and third-party issues involving concrete pads, building construction and heat exchangers.

Federal Funding Pushes US Antimony Beyond Thompson Falls

The Department of Defense awarded USAC $27mn in Defense Production Act Title III funds in February to expand antimony production and refining capacity in Montana and Alaska. The company received $12.8mn of that grant in April.

This funding shows that US antimony supply is now a defense industrial priority. China’s dominant role in antimony processing has made domestic and allied capacity more strategically valuable.

USAC is also pursuing a larger hydrometallurgical processing project in Idaho with Canadian miner Americas Gold and Silver. The joint venture was established in February.

The partners expect to complete construction of the Idaho facility in 2028. The project is targeting capacity of up to 1,000 t/month of 99.9% pure antimony.

USAC has applied for more than $274mn in federal grants across several projects. These include the hydromet facility and tungsten exploration at the Fostung site in Canada.

The company’s financial results still show the strain of expansion. USAC reported an $11.3mn first-quarter loss, compared with a $0.5mn profit a year earlier, while revenue fell by 3% to $6.8mn.

The near-term challenge is therefore operational execution. USAC must bring the Montana furnaces online, meet emissions requirements, deliver to the DLA and convert federal support into reliable production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

USAC’s Montana expansion shows how the US is trying to rebuild antimony capacity through defense contracts, stockpiles and public funding. The strategic risk is execution: domestic supply security depends on furnaces actually running, not only grants and offtake contracts.

Outokumpu Stainless Steel Deliveries Rise as EU CBAM Supports Local Demand

Outokumpu

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries rose sharply from the previous quarter after the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism began applying to imports at the start of the year. The Finnish stainless steel producer shipped 465,000t in January-March, up 27% from the previous quarter.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries were still down 1% from a year earlier, showing that the recovery remains uneven. But the quarterly increase suggests CBAM is starting to shift some demand toward local European production.

Outokumpu stainless steel deliveries are expected to rise by up to 10% in the second quarter. The company is benefiting from European buyers reassessing imports as carbon-related costs begin to affect non-EU supply.

The result highlights the industrial importance of scrap-based stainless steel production. CBAM could improve the competitiveness of lower-carbon European producers if importers face higher carbon costs.

CBAM Gives European Stainless Producers a Demand Tailwind

CBAM imposes a carbon levy on imports from outside the EU. This changes the cost comparison between imported stainless steel and local European material.

For Outokumpu, the mechanism supports demand for European scrap-based stainless production. Scrap-based production generally carries a lower carbon footprint than more emissions-intensive routes.

European stainless shipments reached 324,000t in the first quarter, up 2% from a year earlier. This suggests regional demand held up better than some other markets.

Shipments to the Americas fell by 5% to 148,000t. However, the Americas business still delivered much stronger earnings because of higher average selling prices.

The commercial message is clear. Volume growth is beginning to appear in Europe, but pricing power remains stronger in the Americas.

Ferro-Chrome Volumes Rise but European Margins Weaken

Outokumpu’s ferro-chrome shipments rose by 15.8% year on year to 110,000t. Strong demand in Europe and the US supported the increase.

Ferro-chrome remains essential for stainless steel production because chromium provides corrosion resistance. Higher ferro-chrome shipments therefore show stronger activity across stainless and alloy supply chains.

Group adjusted Ebitda rose by 33% on the year to €65mn. The improvement was driven mainly by the Americas business, where Ebitda climbed to €52mn from €11mn.

But the earnings mix was uneven. Ferro-chrome Ebitda fell by nearly 30% to €30mn, while the European stainless segment posted negative Ebitda of €13mn, down from positive €5mn a year earlier.

Outokumpu attributed weaker European profitability to lower average selling prices and lower fixed-cost absorption. This shows that CBAM may support volumes before it fully restores margins.

The first-quarter result therefore sends a mixed signal. European demand is improving, but pricing and cost absorption still need to recover for the regional stainless business to regain strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s quarter shows that CBAM is beginning to change stainless steel trade behaviour. But the policy’s real test is whether it can improve European producer margins, not only redirect demand toward local supply.

 

Lundin Copper Output Rises as Caserones Grades Lift First-Quarter Production

Lundin Mining

Lundin copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Caserones mine in Chile offset lower grades at Candelaria. The Canadian miner produced 79,934t of copper during the quarter, up 7% from a year earlier.

Lundin copper output was led by Caserones, where production rose by 34.3% to 38,552t. The increase was driven by unexpectedly higher copper concentrate grades, making Caserones the largest contributor to the company’s quarterly copper production.

Lundin copper output remains on track with the company’s 2026 guidance of 310,000-335,000t. The result reinforces Lundin’s increasingly copper-focused strategy after recent asset sales reduced its exposure to zinc and nickel.

The company now generates 85% of quarterly revenue from copper. That shift gives Lundin more direct exposure to long-term demand from grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure.

Caserones Strength Offsets Candelaria Grade Pressure

Caserones was the clear operating driver in the first quarter. Higher grades lifted copper output and helped offset weaker performance elsewhere in Chile.

The mine also produced 589t of molybdenum in the quarter, down 2.2% from a year earlier. Molybdenum remains a valuable by-product because of its role in special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-temperature industrial applications.

Candelaria produced 30,808t of copper, down 16.9% from a year earlier because of lower grades. The decline shows how sensitive copper output remains to ore quality, even at established assets.

Brazil’s Chapada mine produced 10,574t of copper. This gave Lundin additional geographic diversity across its copper portfolio, although Chile remained the dominant contributor.

The mixed mine performance highlights a common copper industry pattern. Higher grades at one asset can offset weakness at another, but sustained production growth still depends on grade control, mill performance and operational reliability.

Vicuna Project Anchors Lundin’s Long-Term Copper Growth

Lundin’s longer-term growth story is increasingly tied to the Vicuna copper project on the Argentina-Chile border. The company published a technical study for the project in the first quarter.

Vicuna is planned to produce more than 500,000 t/yr of copper once fully operational. If developed successfully, it could become one of the more important new copper growth projects in the Americas.

The project matters because new large-scale copper supply remains difficult to bring to market. Permitting, capital intensity, infrastructure, water access and cross-border complexity will all shape Vicuna’s development path.

Lundin has also simplified its portfolio. It completed the sale of the US-based Eagle mine to Talon Metals at the start of the quarter, further concentrating the business around copper.

The company previously sold its Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal and Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden to Boliden. Those assets were Lundin’s only zinc-producing mines, leaving the company with a much clearer copper-led structure.

For investors and industrial buyers, that portfolio shift is important. Lundin is positioning itself more directly around copper’s strategic demand growth rather than maintaining a broader base metals mix.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s first quarter shows the value of becoming a focused copper producer at a time when copper is becoming a strategic industrial material. The next question is whether Vicuna can move from technical promise to bankable supply in a market that needs large, reliable copper projects.

First Quantum Copper Output Falls But Cobre Panama Stockpile Lifts 2026 Guidance

First Quantum

First Quantum copper output declined in the first quarter as lower production from the company’s Zambian mines offset a sharp increase in nickel output. The Canadian miner produced 96,469t of copper in January-March, down 3.2% from a year earlier.

First Quantum copper output was weaker at both Kansanshi and Sentinel, the company’s two main operating copper assets in Zambia. Copper sales also fell by 11.7% to 90,049t because of shipment timing and inventory replenishment at Kansanshi after stronger sales in the previous quarter.

First Quantum copper output guidance for 2026 was raised despite the weaker first-quarter result. The company increased its full-year copper production outlook to 405,000-475,000t after Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at the closed Cobre Panama mine.

The approval changes the near-term production picture, but it does not reopen Cobre Panama. The mine remains closed after protests and a court ruling in 2023 found its operating contract unconstitutional.

Zambian Mines Weaken as Grades and Recoveries Pressure Output

Kansanshi produced 45,345t of copper in the first quarter, down 2.6% from a year earlier. The decline reflects the challenge of maintaining output from mature large-scale copper operations.

Sentinel produced 45,252t of copper, down 2.4% on the year. Lower feed grades and weaker recoveries reduced output at the mine.

These results show how copper supply can weaken even when operating assets remain active. Mine grades, recovery rates, mill performance and shipment timing all influence quarterly supply.

The weaker sales figure also matters. First Quantum sold 90,049t of copper in the quarter, below production, because of shipment timing and the need to rebuild Kansanshi inventories.

For copper markets, Zambia remains important because it is one of Africa’s key producing regions. Stable output from Kansanshi and Sentinel supports global supply at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on secure copper sources outside more politically sensitive routes.

First Quantum’s nickel production moved in the opposite direction. Output rose by 165.4% on the year to 12,340t, supported by higher grades and recoveries.

The nickel increase improves the company’s diversified metals profile. But copper remains the strategic core of First Quantum’s business and the main driver of market attention.

Cobre Panama Stockpile Approval Adds Near-Term Copper Supply

First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production guidance after Panama approved the removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. The site will process around 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing about 70,000t of recoverable copper.

This approval gives First Quantum a short-term supply and cash-flow opportunity from material already mined before the shutdown. It does not involve new mining, drilling or blasting.

Cobre Panama was one of the largest copper mines in the Americas before its closure. It produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply.

The mine’s shutdown removed a major source of copper supply and had a severe impact on First Quantum’s revenue base. The stockpile processing approval partly eases that impact, but only for material already on site.

The long-term future of Cobre Panama remains unresolved. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement with Panama.

This distinction is important for copper markets. Stockpile processing can add near-term units, but it does not restore the full mine or solve the broader supply loss from the 2023 closure.

First Quantum kept its 2026 nickel production guidance unchanged at 30,000-40,000t. That suggests the main guidance change is tied directly to Cobre Panama’s approved stockpile treatment.

For investors and copper buyers, the company’s outlook now depends on two tracks. Zambia must stabilise operating performance, while Panama determines how much value can be recovered from Cobre Panama without reopening the mine.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s guidance increase is a stockpile story, not a full Cobre Panama recovery story. The approval adds useful copper units, but the real strategic question remains whether Panama and First Quantum can ever rebuild a legal framework for long-term mining.

Aclara Rare Earth Oxides Plan Links Brazil Mining to US Separation

aclara

Aclara rare earth oxides production plans have been reaffirmed for the Carina project in Brazil, strengthening the company’s role in the emerging Americas rare earth supply chain. The Brazilian rare earth producer expects to produce more than 4,300 t/yr of rare earth oxides from 2028.

Aclara rare earth oxides output is expected to average 4,378 t/yr contained in mixed rare earth concentrate. The planned product mix includes 1,191 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium, 156 t/yr of dysprosium and 27 t/yr of terbium.

Aclara rare earth oxides are strategically important because NdPr, dysprosium and terbium are key inputs for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced industrial motors.

The Carina project is expected to have an 18-year mine life. Production costs are estimated at $29.20/kg of rare earth oxide produced, giving investors and customers a clearer basis for assessing the project’s long-term competitiveness.

Carina Project Adds Heavy Rare Earths to the Americas Supply Base

The Carina project’s value is not limited to light rare earths. Its mixed rare earth concentrate also contains several heavy rare earth elements that are difficult to secure outside China-linked supply chains.

Aclara expects annual output to include 173 t of samarium, 176 t of gadolinium, 10 t of lutetium and 1,160 t of yttrium. These materials add strategic depth to the project because heavy rare earth supply remains highly concentrated and increasingly sensitive to export controls.

Dysprosium and terbium are especially important for magnet performance. They improve heat resistance and magnetic stability in demanding applications such as EV traction motors, wind turbine generators and defence electronics.

The project therefore fits a wider western effort to build alternative rare earth supply chains. Brazil offers mineral potential, while the US provides downstream policy support and processing infrastructure incentives.

Construction at Carina is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026. Initial output is expected in the second half of 2028, followed by ramp-up in 2029.

Louisiana Separation Plan Builds Downstream Magnet Chain

Aclara plans to send material from Carina to Louisiana for separation and processing. The US site will produce rare earth metals and alloys, moving the project beyond mine supply into downstream magnet material preparation.

This structure matters because rare earth security depends on more than mining. Mixed rare earth concentrate must be separated, refined, converted into metals and alloyed before it can support permanent magnet production.

The Louisiana processing route could therefore create a more integrated Brazil-US rare earth chain. It links Brazilian ionic clay-style rare earth resources with US separation, metal and alloy capacity.

Public-sector support strengthens the project’s strategic profile. The US International Development Finance Corporation provided $5mn for Carina’s development, while Louisiana granted $46mn in tax incentives to accelerate the separation project.

For western magnet manufacturers, Aclara’s model offers potential supply diversification. The company could provide NdPr, dysprosium and terbium units into a market where downstream users are actively seeking non-China material.

However, execution remains critical. The project must move through construction, commissioning, ramp-up and qualification before it can become a reliable supply source for magnet makers and strategic customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aclara’s plan shows that rare earth competitiveness now depends on linking mine output with separation and metal conversion. The Brazil-Louisiana route could become strategically important if it delivers heavy rare earth volumes into the Americas magnet supply chain.

Kibar Americas Fairmont Facility Acquisition Gives Assan Its First US Aluminum Plant

Kibar Americas

Kibar Americas Fairmont facility acquisition gave Turkey-based Assan Aluminyum its first manufacturing footprint in the US. Kibar Americas, a subsidiary of Assan, bought Novelis’ former aluminum rolling facility in Fairmont, West Virginia.

The deal gives Kibar Americas an established industrial site with cold-rolling and finishing capabilities. The 380,000ft² facility is expected to support production of aluminum foil products, although the company is still evaluating future use options.

Kibar Americas Fairmont facility plans matter because aluminum foil demand remains tied to packaging, industrial applications, energy systems, electronics, and flexible materials supply chains. A US manufacturing base also gives Assan a closer position to North American customers.

Fairmont Site Offers Ready Aluminum Rolling Infrastructure

The former Novelis site gives Kibar Americas an existing production platform rather than a greenfield project. Its cold-rolling mill and finishing capabilities could shorten the path toward US-based aluminum foil output.

Novelis announced in March 2025 that it would close the Fairmont facility by 30 June 2025 as part of a portfolio consolidation plan. Kibar’s acquisition keeps the site inside the aluminum value chain and could preserve industrial optionality in West Virginia.

The transaction details were not disclosed. However, the strategic meaning is clear: Kibar Americas Fairmont facility acquisition allows Assan to expand beyond its Turkish production base and enter the US market with physical manufacturing capacity.

Assan Aluminyum Extends Its Foil Strategy Into the US

Assan Aluminyum currently has 360,000 t/yr of flat-rolled aluminum capacity across its Istanbul and Kocaeli facilities. Of that total, 130,000 t/yr is dedicated to aluminum foil output.

The Fairmont acquisition could complement that existing foil platform. It may help Assan reduce logistics distance, improve customer responsiveness, and manage trade or tariff exposure in the North American market.

For the US aluminum sector, the deal shows continuing interest in downstream rolling and foil capacity. While primary aluminum production faces power-cost pressure, downstream aluminum processing remains strategically relevant for packaging, manufacturing, automotive, and industrial supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kibar’s move shows that established US rolling assets still carry strategic value, even after major producers consolidate capacity. For Assan, the Fairmont site could become a foothold for building a North American aluminum foil platform rather than only an overseas acquisition.

Panama Canal Ports Takeover Raises New Geopolitical Risk for Global Supply Chains

Panama Canal Ports

Panama canal ports have entered a new phase of geopolitical scrutiny after Panama formally took over the Cristobal and Balboa terminals. The move follows a supreme court ruling that cancelled concessions held by a Hong Kong-based operator and reshaped control at both entrances to the canal.

The Panama canal ports are strategically important because they sit on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of one of the world’s most critical trade corridors. For metals, mining, energy, and manufacturing supply chains, the canal remains a key logistics route linking the Americas, Asia, and Europe.

Panama’s government said the takeover will allow uninterrupted operations while it prepares a tender within 18 months for a long-term operator. APM Terminals will operate Balboa on the Pacific side, while MSC will run Cristobal on the Atlantic side.

Port Control Becomes a Strategic Trade Issue

The Panama port takeover reflects how infrastructure ownership has become a core industrial policy issue. Ports, canals, shipping terminals, and logistics hubs are no longer viewed as neutral assets. They are increasingly tied to national security, supply chain resilience, and geopolitical alignment.

CK Hutchison’s subsidiary PPC had managed the Cristobal and Balboa terminals under a 25-year contract renewed in 2021. However, Panama’s supreme court ruled that the operating terms violated the constitution and were no longer valid. CK Hutchison called the takeover unlawful.

The dispute also carries a wider geopolitical dimension. The US has repeatedly argued that CK Hutchison’s role at the ports created Chinese influence over canal logistics. Panama rejected claims that the canal had fallen under Beijing’s control, while stressing that the Panama Canal Authority operates as an autonomous agency.

Canal Logistics Remain Critical for Metals and Industrial Trade

Canal logistics are essential for global commodity flows because many industrial supply chains depend on predictable maritime routing. Copper concentrates, aluminum products, energy materials, steel inputs, manufactured goods, and mining equipment all rely on stable port and shipping networks.

The immediate operational risk appears contained because Panama has appointed APM Terminals and MSC to keep the ports running. However, the longer-term tender process will be closely watched by shipping groups, traders, manufacturers, and governments. Future operators will influence cost, reliability, and strategic confidence around the canal corridor.

The dispute also shows how global infrastructure transactions face stronger political review. BlackRock’s planned purchase of Cristobal, Balboa, and other terminals from CK Hutchison had already been delayed amid objections from China. That delay underlines how ports are now contested assets in the wider competition for supply chain control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Panama canal ports dispute shows that logistics infrastructure is becoming as strategic as raw materials themselves. For industrial companies, the lesson is clear: supply chain risk now includes port ownership, political alignment, and maritime chokepoint governance.

US-Ecuador Trade Deal Could Open a New Path for Ecuadorian Copper Exports

US-Ecuador

The US-Ecuador trade deal could reshape trade flows for metals and other industrial goods. Ecuador and the US completed negotiations on a reciprocal agreement that will allow about half of Ecuadorian exports to enter the US tariff-free. That group includes copper, lead, and gold. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could create a new opening for Ecuadorian copper exports.

This matters because copper concentrate from Ecuador currently faces tariffs in the US. Those duties raise the cost of entry and reduce Ecuador’s competitiveness in the American market. Removing that barrier could improve the commercial case for future shipments. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal may become more important for copper trade than current export patterns suggest.

At present, Ecuadorian copper exports are heavily concentrated elsewhere. Most copper concentrate shipments go to China, with smaller volumes going to Peru and South Korea. Ecuador exported no copper to the US in 2025 despite strong overall copper concentrate growth. Consequently, the US-Ecuador trade deal could diversify export destinations even if change is gradual at first.

Ecuadorian Copper Exports Could Become Less China-Centric

Ecuadorian copper exports have grown strongly, but they remain concentrated in one market. From January to November 2025, Ecuador exported more than 605,000t of copper concentrate globally. Revenue reached about $1.5bn over that period. However, 96.5pc of that volume went to China.

That concentration creates both scale and risk. China offers strong demand, but overdependence on one destination can limit bargaining power and trade flexibility. A tariff-free path into the US would give Ecuador another strategic outlet. As a result, Ecuadorian copper exports could become more balanced over time.

The shift will not happen automatically. Trade agreements can open doors, but actual volumes depend on commercial relationships, treatment terms, logistics, and buyer interest. Even so, tariff-free copper trade would improve Ecuador’s position in future negotiations. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal gives Ecuador more optionality in a critical export sector.

Ecuador Non-Oil Exports Gain a Broader Strategic Boost

Ecuador non-oil exports could also benefit far beyond copper. The agreement covers dozens of products, including metals, agricultural goods, and fisheries products. Ecuador expects the deal to lift non-oil exports to the US by about 15pc each year. That would support a broader diversification strategy across the economy.

This wider context matters for metals as well. A stronger trade framework can improve investor confidence in export-oriented mining and processing. It can also encourage companies to think more seriously about the US as a destination market. Meanwhile, tariff-free copper trade would fit neatly into a broader non-oil export expansion plan.

The agreement also arrives at a time when the US wants more secure and diversified supply chains across the Americas. That creates a favorable backdrop for Ecuadorian producers seeking new buyers. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could gain strategic value beyond its immediate tariff effects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it gives Ecuador a chance to reduce export concentration without abandoning its strongest market. The biggest opportunity is not instant copper volume to the US. It is the creation of a second serious commercial path for Ecuador’s growing metals sector.

Brazil Critical Minerals Processing Moves Closer to a US-Backed Expansion

US, critical minerals in Brazil

Brazil critical minerals processing is moving closer to a new strategic phase. The United States is now openly discussing financing and technical support for Brazil critical minerals processing. Washington sees Brazil as an essential partner in a more resilient Western supply chain. As a result, Brazil critical minerals processing is becoming a serious geopolitical and industrial priority.

This shift matters because Brazil has large reserves but limited downstream scale. The country holds major positions in niobium, rare earths, graphite, nickel, and lithium. Yet Brazil still contributes only a small share of global rare earth production. Therefore, the next stage of the market will depend less on geology and more on industrial buildout.

The US focus appears especially clear in heavy rare earths. Projects such as Serra Verde and Aclara already show where this strategy may go. Both are tied to mixed rare earth products with higher dysprosium and terbium content. Consequently, heavy rare earth processing in Brazil is becoming more central to future magnet supply chains.

US-Brazil Critical Minerals Partnership Is Moving Beyond Mining

US-Brazil critical minerals partnership is now shifting from resource interest toward processing ambition. US officials said financing from the Development Finance Corporation and technical cooperation could support that next step. That matters because processing is where more value stays inside the supply chain. As a result, Brazil is being positioned as more than a raw materials source.

This approach also fits wider US strategy in Latin America. Washington has already signed critical minerals agreements with several regional partners. Brazil stands out because of its resource scale and industrial sophistication. Therefore, it offers stronger conditions for building midstream capacity than many other jurisdictions.

However, the political structure will matter. Brazil would still need to allow foreign-backed processing development on its territory. That means any real progress will require policy alignment as well as financing. Meanwhile, both governments appear to understand that strong partnerships will decide whether this vision becomes real.

Brazil Rare Earth Value Chain Depends on Industrialization, Not Exports Alone

Brazil rare earth value chain expansion is also a domestic political priority. President Lula has made it clear that Brazil does not want to remain a simple exporter of critical minerals. He wants foreign companies to build downstream industry inside the country. That message aligns closely with demands from Brazilian market participants.

The same logic applies beyond rare earths. Lithium producers and industry groups also want policies that support a full end-to-end value chain. They argue Brazil has the resource base to become a global critical minerals leader. However, the country still lacks stronger fiscal incentives for midstream and downstream investment. Therefore, Brazil critical minerals processing may advance only if industrial policy becomes more competitive.

That is why current US interest matters so much. External financing can help, but it cannot replace local policy support. If Brazil combines foreign capital with domestic industrial incentives, it could move far higher in the global value chain. As a result, Brazil rare earth value chain development may become one of the most important critical minerals stories in the Americas.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil now faces a clear strategic choice. It can stay rich in reserves but light in processing, or it can push deeper into value-added industry. If US backing and Brazilian industrial policy move together, Brazil could become one of the West’s most important critical minerals processing hubs.

Outokumpu Europe Loss Highlights the Pressure on Stainless Steel Margins

Outokumpu

Outokumpu Europe loss became the defining feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The Finnish stainless steel producer reported weaker deliveries, lower sales, and softer earnings for the year. Europe remained the main drag, while the Americas and ferro-chrome divisions provided support. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss shows how difficult the regional stainless market remains.

The company’s full-year stainless steel deliveries fell 2.3pc to 1.751mn t. Group sales dropped nearly 8pc to €5.47bn as realized prices weakened in both Europe and the Americas. Adjusted Ebitda slipped to €167mn from €177mn in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu Europe loss reflects both weaker pricing and a more challenging operating environment.

Fourth-quarter performance was even weaker. Stainless steel deliveries sank 13.5pc to 365,000t, hurt by soft demand and temporary disruption from a new ERP rollout. That rollout affected supply-chain planning in Europe during the quarter. Consequently, operational execution added to already fragile market conditions.

European Stainless Steel Demand Remains the Core Problem

European stainless steel demand remains the biggest weakness in Outokumpu’s portfolio. The company’s European business swung to an adjusted Ebitda loss of €46mn in 2025, compared with a €58mn profit in 2024. Deliveries in Europe fell 6pc to 1.148mn t, while realized prices dropped sharply. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss was driven by both lower volumes and thinner margins.

The fourth quarter showed even deeper stress. Adjusted Ebitda in Europe deteriorated to negative €56mn, worse than the negative €32mn recorded a year earlier. Deliveries in the region dropped 23pc year on year to 223,000t. Therefore, European stainless steel demand remains too weak to support profitable utilization.

Outokumpu is responding with restructuring. The company is targeting €100mn of structural annual cost savings by the end of 2027, mainly in Europe. It also booked €34mn of restructuring costs in the fourth quarter tied to personnel reductions. Meanwhile, pricing and capacity utilization continue to weigh on margins across the region.

Ferro-Chrome Earnings and the Americas Help Offset the Weakness

Ferro-chrome earnings and the Americas business helped prevent an even weaker group result. In the Americas, adjusted Ebitda rose to €102mn from €59mn in 2024. Deliveries increased 4.36pc to 622,000t as some customers shifted toward domestic suppliers during tariff changes. As a result, the Americas became the clearest positive area in the group.

The ferro-chrome division also delivered another solid year. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €138mn from €106mn, marking a third consecutive annual improvement. Deliveries increased 6pc to 395,000t, supported by stronger external demand and lower variable costs. Therefore, ferro-chrome earnings remain one of the company’s most reliable profit supports.

Outokumpu also continues to position itself for a lower-carbon future. The company confirmed a $45mn investment in a US pilot plant for low-CO₂ chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome technology. Management also believes CBAM could improve its relative competitiveness because of its lower carbon footprint. However, management still says demand in Europe and North America remains subdued and recovery evidence is limited.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s results show a familiar European steel problem: cost actions and regulation can help, but weak demand and price pressure still dominate the near term. The stronger Americas and ferro-chrome divisions give the company breathing room, yet Europe remains the business that will decide whether recovery becomes real in 2026.

US Antimony Processing Plant in Idaho Strengthens North American Sb Supply Chain

Americas Gold and Silver

The US antimony processing plant planned in Idaho marks a significant step for North American critical minerals security. US Antimony and Americas Gold and Silver formed a joint venture to develop a hydrometallurgical antimony facility at the Galena complex in Idaho. The project links local feedstock, processing capacity, and downstream marketing. As a result, the US antimony processing plant could strengthen domestic supply for both industry and defense.

This matters because antimony remains a strategically sensitive metal with limited western processing capacity. Americas will sell antimony feedstock from Galena to the joint venture for processing. US Antimony will then purchase the antimony produced at the plant. Therefore, the US antimony processing plant creates a more integrated domestic flow from mine to refined product.

The structure of the partnership also looks deliberate. Americas will own 51pc of the venture, while USAC will hold 49pc. Feed from the Galena site will receive priority, although the facility may also accept other sources later. Consequently, Idaho antimony processing could become a flexible platform rather than a single-mine solution.

Idaho Antimony Processing Builds on Existing USAC Expertise

Idaho antimony processing gains credibility because USAC already has operating experience in this market. The company runs the only two antimony smelters in North America, including the Thompson Falls facility in Montana. It also said earlier this year that it helped develop a hydrometallurgical antimony facility in Bolivia. As a result, the joint venture starts with more technical depth than a typical greenfield concept.

That expertise matters because hydrometallurgical processing is not just a construction task. It requires operating knowledge, feed handling discipline, and product quality control. USAC said it will contribute knowledge and technical expertise to the venture. Therefore, the project has a stronger chance of moving from concept to workable industrial asset.

North American Antimony Supply Gains a Stronger Defense Link

North American antimony supply also gains a clear defense connection through this project. USAC said it can provide the joint venture access to its marketing network, including the US government. That creates a direct link between new processing capacity and strategic buyers. Consequently, the Idaho project could matter well beyond commercial metals trade.

That defense angle is already real. USAC secured a five-year fixed-price contract worth up to $245mn to supply antimony ingots to the US Defense Logistics Agency. The new joint venture has also prepared paperwork to pursue government funding. Therefore, the US antimony processing plant fits directly into a larger effort to rebuild critical mineral capacity in North America.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project matters because it connects mine feed, processing, and defense demand in one structure. Antimony supply security will not improve through mining alone. It needs real domestic processing, and Idaho now looks like one of the more serious new steps in that direction.

North Sea Dated benchmark hits highest since mid-2022 as Europe feels Mideast supply shock

North Sea Dated

North Sea Dated benchmark hits highest since mid-2022 as the Mideast war tightens Atlantic Basin supply. North Sea Dated surged to $112.83/bl on 18 March. North Sea Dated benchmark hits highest since mid-2022 after a $10/bl day-on-day jump.

Europe faces a delayed but widening supply squeeze. Longer shipping times slowed the initial impact versus Asia. However, the disruption now reaches European refiners and traders.

Why North Sea Dated is spiking despite some flows still moving

North Sea Dated benchmark hits highest since mid-2022 because it anchors light sweet crude pricing. The benchmark influences physical grades from Europe, Africa, the Caspian, and the Americas. It also underpins ICE Brent futures pricing.

Some regional barrels still arrive, but the cushion looks thin. Europe still receives some Basrah cargoes that sailed before Hormuz disruptions. Meanwhile, Saudi crude to Europe avoids Hormuz, which limits immediate flow losses.

Backwardation, prompt cargo pressure, and refinery margins set the next move

North Sea Dated benchmark hits highest since mid-2022 even as prompt cargo dynamics briefly capped gains. Traders moved unwanted prompt benchmark barrels at discounts versus later deliveries. Once the market cleared those prompt cargos, Dated resumed its climb.

Refinery economics now shape demand resilience. Wide backwardation makes storage unattractive and punishes inventory builds. Therefore, refiners may cut runs if forward cracks weaken and crude stays elevated.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This price spike signals physical tightness, not only futures momentum. However, refiners will push back if margins compress into May. The next inflection likely comes from run cuts or a stabilization in Gulf shipping risk.

EV demand low into early 2026 forces GM to reset its EV roadmap

GM

EV demand low into early 2026 is forcing GM to reset its electrification roadmap. The company now expects a sharp slowdown in US EV demand from October, with weakness extending into early 2026. As a result, GM EV strategy will focus less on volume and more on profitability, cost reduction and flexible product planning while EV demand low into early 2026 reshapes investment priorities.

EV demand low into early 2026 shifts focus from growth to profitability

GM is refocusing its EV portfolio on returns as EV demand low into early 2026 erodes earlier growth assumptions. Management will target lower material costs through larger battery modules and new chemistries, seeking better pack economics across upcoming models. This shift shows how GM EV strategy is moving from pure scale to margin protection in a cooling market.

However, the company still holds a meaningful EV position despite the slowdown. GM delivered more than 66,000 EVs in the US during the third quarter, capturing a 16.5pc market share. Even so, the $1.6bn charge tied to converting the Orion, Michigan plant back to internal combustion output signals a decisive retreat from some earlier EV capacity bets. GM will also end production of its BrightDrop electric delivery van after weaker than expected fleet demand.

Tariff exposure falls as GM doubles down on North American supply chains

Tariff relief and localisation are cushioning GM as EV demand low into early 2026 complicates planning. The company cut its 2025 tariff exposure by $500mn, now guiding to $3.5bn-4.5bn in potential duties. Recent tariff measures on some vehicle imports have had limited impact on GM because of years spent strengthening North American supply chains.

As a result, sourcing strategies have become a core pillar of GM EV strategy. Management highlighted investments in magnet supply and its stake in Lithium Americas as examples of upstream de-risking. These moves help secure critical materials for both EV and hybrid programs while limiting exposure to geopolitical shocks. Still, quarterly profit fell to $1.3bn from $3bn a year earlier, underlining how a softer EV ramp and restructuring costs weigh on near-term earnings.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GM’s reset shows that profitability is now the dominant theme in Western EV markets. For metals producers, slower EV growth into 2026 could delay some demand, but localisation of magnets, batteries and power electronics remains structurally bullish. Suppliers that can offer both competitive pricing and North American footprint will be best positioned as GM and peers rebalance their EV roadmaps.

Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project reshaped by US equity move

Lithium Americas

The Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project has entered a new phase as the US government links financing to direct equity. The Department of Energy (DOE) will take a 5pc stake in Lithium Americas and another 5pc in its joint venture with General Motors. This move reshapes risk sharing on the Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project and signals stronger US commitment to domestic lithium supply. As a result, the Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project now sits at the intersection of industrial policy, EV demand and capital markets.

US equity stake deepens support for Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project

The DOE has restructured its $2.26bn loan by adding equity warrants in Lithium Americas and its GM joint venture. This makes the US government not only a lender but also a partial owner of the Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project. LAC will draw an initial $435mn before the end of 2025, which will fund early construction and infrastructure. The joint venture structure remains intact, with Lithium Americas holding 62pc and operatorship and GM holding 38pc. This equity-linked design aligns incentives across government, miner and automaker, while anchoring long-term US battery material security.

The Thacker Pass development targets 160,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate across five phases. Each phase is planned at 40,000 t/yr, providing staged capacity that can track market demand. This phased approach reduces execution risk and gives lenders more confidence in the project ramp-up. It also lets the partners adjust capex timing if pricing or EV demand changes. For the DOE, the structure supports a scalable North American supply chain that can feed US gigafactories and reduce reliance on foreign lithium.

GM will also amend its offtake agreement to allow additional buyers into the portfolio. Under the existing terms, GM can take up to 100pc of Phase 1 and 38pc of total production for 20 years. The updated agreement will free some Phase 1 volumes for third-party offtake contracts. That shift reflects slower US EV adoption than previously expected and uncertainty after the expiry of key tax credits at the end of September. It also allows Lithium Americas to diversify its customer base and reduce single-buyer exposure.

Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project balances market risk and supply security

The Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project is now a test case for how policy-backed critical mineral projects manage demand cycles. On one hand, government equity and cheap debt lower financing costs and signal strong policy support. On the other, the partners must adapt to a softer EV sales trajectory and evolving battery chemistries. Allowing third-party offtake from early phases helps ensure plant utilisation and broader market participation. It also widens the strategic impact of Thacker Pass beyond a single OEM.

At the same time, the project remains central to US ambitions for a resilient battery supply chain. Domestic lithium carbonate output can reduce exposure to price spikes, export controls and shipping disruptions. The phased build-out allows careful monitoring of market conditions while keeping long-term capacity targets intact. If EV adoption reaccelerates later in the decade, Thacker Pass will already have a built foundation for further expansion.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DOE’s equity stake turns Thacker Pass into a flagship example of industrial policy meeting market reality. The Lithium Americas Thacker Pass project gains financial strength and strategic backing, but must now prove it can thrive in a slower, more competitive EV landscape. For battery and automaker supply chains, the real story is optionality: diversified offtake and phased growth give this project room to adjust without losing strategic relevance.

REA Heavy Rare Earths Exploration Expands in the US and Brazil

Rare Earths Americas

REA heavy rare earths exploration accelerates after a $16mn funding round. The company will develop high-grade assets in the US and Brazil. REA heavy rare earths exploration targets dysprosium and terbium supply growth. Grades at Georgia’s Foothills reach 41.3% TREO with rich monazite sands. Therefore, REA heavy rare earths exploration strengthens non-China supply optionality for magnets.

Portfolio spans US monazite and Brazil ionic clays

REA controls four projects across two countries. Foothills in Georgia hosts surface monazite with Dy and Tb. Brazil adds Alpha and Constellation ionic clays in Bahia and Minas Gerais. These clays total about 1bn tonnes of mineralization. All projects also contain neodymium and praseodymium. Homer in Goiás targets carbonatites with REE and niobium potential. As a result, REA balances near-surface sands with scalable clay resources.

Strategic value for dysprosium, terbium and NdPr supply chains

Heavy rare earths enable high-coercivity NdFeB magnets. Therefore, Dy and Tb access remains strategically critical. Ionic clays can enable simpler leaching routes at scale. Meanwhile, Foothills offers high grades and quick sampling cycles. NdPr credits improve project economics. Additionally, Homer’s niobium upside diversifies revenue. Offtake, permitting, and processing partners will define timelines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

REA’s mix of monazite sands and ionic clays hedges geology and processing risk. Success will hinge on low-impurity circuits and responsible leach management. Watch pilot metallurgy and early offtake signals through 2026.

Outokumpu’s deliveries, revenues rise in 2Q: what drove the beat

Outokumpu

Outokumpu’s deliveries, revenues rise in 2Q as volumes improved across regions. Europe posted modest growth from a low base. Meanwhile, the Americas sustained steady shipments despite softer stainless prices and fragile end-market demand.

Regional performance and product mix

Outokumpu’s deliveries, revenues rise in 2Q on higher stainless shipments. Group volumes reached 483,000t, up 3.2pc year on year. Europe shipped 324,000t, up 2pc, while the Americas hit 166,000t, up 3.1pc. First-half deliveries rose 4.5pc to 953,000t, mirroring second-quarter momentum. Lower raw material costs and savings supported margins despite weaker realized prices.

Outlook and profitability signals

Outokumpu’s deliveries, revenues rise in 2Q alongside stronger first-half ebitda. Adjusted ebitda climbed to €124mn, nearly one-third higher. Ferrochrome shipments slipped 3pc in Q2 to 101,000t, though H1 reached 197,000t. However, management flagged softer Q3 seasonality and European weakness. The firm guides a 5–15pc delivery drop versus Q2. Asian imports keep price pressure elevated, limiting spot upside. Planned maintenance in Europe may trim Q3 ebitda by up to €10mn.

Market context and risk factors

Service centers in Europe continue delaying restocking amid demand uncertainty. As a result, realized prices face further pressure into Q3. Distributor inventories in the US remain stable, helping the Americas cadence. Still, macro sentiment and trade flows could sway spreads and surcharges. Execution on cost control and mix will remain critical for margins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s disciplined cost base cushioned price softness, but pricing headwinds persist into Q3. Watch European import intensity and restocking timing for any margin relief. A faster inventory draw in Europe could catalyze a firmer Q4 price floor.

Crown warns aluminum can supply will tighten through 2025

Crown Holdings

Crown says aluminum can supply will tighten through late 2025 as demand outpaces capacity. The aluminum can supply outlook reflects stronger North American and European orders despite Asian tariff headwinds. As a result, Crown will boost efficiency and expand plants to protect aluminum can supply.

Demand growth offsets Asia weakness

Crown reports second-quarter growth across key end markets. North American beverage can shipments rose 1pc from the first quarter. European beverage can volumes increased 7pc, while North American food cans gained 5pc. However, Asia-Pacific volumes declined on tariff-driven weakness. Crown notes tariffs did not hit its Americas or European markets.

Capacity additions in Brazil and southern Europe

Crown will add a third line at Ponta Grossa, Brazil. The project lifts capacity to 3.6bn cans a year from 2.4bn. Commercial production is targeted for the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Crown is modernizing Korinthos, Greece. It will also add a new line at a southern Europe site to be named. These moves aim to relieve regional tightness and cut logistics bottlenecks.

Stronger can demand supports upstream aluminum coil and coating suppliers. Therefore, brand owners should secure 2025-2026 volumes early. Crown’s efficiency push and brownfield upgrades should help balance regional imbalances over time.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Crown’s expansion signals sustained beverage packaging growth despite Asian softness. Expect contract pricing to favor reliable converters until new lines start. Watch Brazil and Greece timelines closely; any slippage could amplify near-term tightness.

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to deepen copper exposure

Horizon Copper

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper for $196 million, advancing its copper growth strategy. The streaming and royalty company will buy all Horizon shares except Sandstorm’s. The cash offer is C$2 per share, or $1.46 per share. Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to consolidate high-quality copper interests.

Deal terms and portfolio exposure

The transaction values Horizon’s 86.49 million outstanding shares at the stated cash price. Horizon owns a 1.66% net profit interest in Peru’s Antamina mine. The open-pit operation ranks among the world’s largest copper producers. Horizon also holds 30% of the Hod Maden copper-gold project in Turkey.

Horizon owns 24% of Entrée Resources, providing exposure to Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. In a parallel move, Royal Gold agreed to acquire Sandstorm for $3.5 billion. Each deal depends on the other’s completion to close. Therefore, execution will follow coordinated regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Strategic rationale and copper market implications

Royal Gold acquires Horizon Copper to expand long-life, low-cost copper optionality. The portfolio adds tier-one assets across the Americas and Eurasia. As a result, cash flow diversity and duration should improve. Streaming economics also limit operating cost exposure and inflation risk.

This combination tightens alignment with global copper fundamentals. Antamina, Hod Maden, and Oyu Tolgoi anchor growth into the next cycle. Meanwhile, the Sandstorm acquisition scales platform reach and deal flow. Therefore, portfolio depth supports disciplined capital allocation through price volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a scale play into copper with premier asset linkages. Integration discipline and royalty contract terms will determine value capture. Watch closing timelines, Antamina profitability, and Hod Maden development milestones.

Fagor Ederlan Expands with Majority Stake in US Aluminum Producer

Fagor Ederlan

Strategic Move into Secondary Aluminum

Spanish automotive component producer Fagor Ederlan has acquired 51pc of US-based Regen Aluminum, strengthening its presence in North America. The acquisition aligns with Fagor’s sustainability strategy while boosting service capabilities for automotive and industrial customers across the region. As part of the deal, Regen Aluminum will be renamed Fagor Regen Aluminum, reflecting its integration into the parent group.

Regen Aluminum specializes in producing recycled aluminum ingots for automotive, aerospace, and electrical applications. The company has an annual production capacity of 5mn ingots, offering a reliable supply of low-carbon materials to customers. By leveraging Regen’s expertise, Fagor Ederlan enhances its ability to deliver sustainable solutions within the global aluminum supply chain.

Secondary Aluminum’s Role in Sustainability

The production of secondary aluminum significantly reduces carbon emissions, cutting the footprint by more than 90pc compared with primary aluminum. Therefore, this acquisition positions Fagor Ederlan as a stronger player in sustainable metals, a key priority for industries navigating decarbonization goals.

Fagor already operates facilities in Europe, China, and the Americas, and this move reinforces its global strategy. While financial details were not disclosed, the deal highlights the increasing strategic importance of secondary aluminum in global supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fagor’s acquisition of Regen Aluminum underscores a growing trend: automakers and component producers are moving upstream into recycling to secure sustainable supply. As secondary aluminum gains traction, this deal signals how European firms are positioning to meet both regulatory and market-driven decarbonization demands in North America.

Alpayana Raises Takeover Bid for Sierra Metals Amid Improved Earnings

Alpayana

Peruvian Miner Pursues Full Acquisition of Canadian Base Metals Producer

Alpayana has increased its takeover bid for Sierra Metals, offering C$1.15 per share in an all-cash proposal to acquire 100% of the company. The Focus Keyphrase "Alpayana takeover bid" highlights growing consolidation moves in the Americas' base metals sector.

The latest bid follows the expiration of a previous C$1.11 offer on May 12, which Sierra deemed unfeasible due to unrealistic conditions. While Sierra has not endorsed or rejected the new offer, it cautioned shareholders that a change in control could strain liquidity, especially if loan obligations are triggered before the deal closes.

The acquisition would give Alpayana access to Sierra’s operating mines in Peru and Mexico, which produce copper, zinc, lead, and silver—assets increasingly valuable amid tightening global supply of critical base metals.

Sierra Posts Profit as Metal Prices Support Recovery

Sierra Metals posted a Q1 2025 net profit of $10.3 million, reversing a loss of $783,000 in the same period last year. The improvement was driven by higher revenue across copper, zinc, and lead operations, even as mining costs saw a marginal increase.

This financial turnaround may strengthen Sierra’s position in negotiating better terms or considering alternative strategic options. Investors are watching closely as Alpayana’s renewed bid coincides with Sierra’s improving fundamentals.

However, any acquisition deal could complicate Sierra’s financial structure, especially with potential early loan repayments tied to change-of-control clauses.

M&A Momentum Grows in Latin America’s Mining Sector

Alpayana’s renewed interest in Sierra Metals reflects growing M&A momentum across Latin American mining, particularly among mid-tier producers seeking scale, asset diversification, and operating synergies.

Sierra’s footprint in Peru and Mexico is seen as strategically valuable, offering exposure to multiple high-demand metals amid supply disruptions and global reindustrialization trends. Alpayana’s move could also signal rising confidence in commodity prices and future cash flow visibility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The raised Alpayana takeover bid underscores a shifting dynamic in base metals, where mid-tier consolidation is gaining pace. Sierra’s recent earnings rebound complicates the acquisition calculus, highlighting how operational performance can influence deal-making leverage and shareholder sentiment.