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ATI Nickel Superalloy Capacity Expansion Targets Jet Engine Growth

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ATI Nickel Superalloy Capacity Expansion Targets Jet Engine Growth
VIM(Vacuum Induction Furnace)

ATI nickel superalloy capacity expansion is moving into a new phase with another melting investment in North Carolina. ATI plans to add a new VIM furnace at its Bakers South facility in Monroe. The company expects the unit to start in the second half of 2027. As a result, ATI nickel superalloy capacity expansion is becoming more directly tied to engine OEM growth plans.

The new furnace will be the fifth VIM asset in ATI’s nickel portfolio. The company said customer qualification should follow within six to nine months after start-up. ATI also indicated the furnace could lift capacity by roughly 8-10pc, or about 9,000 tonnes per year. Therefore, ATI nickel superalloy capacity expansion could add meaningful new supply to a tight aerospace materials chain.

This investment matters because nickel-based superalloys remain critical to modern jet engines. These materials are used in compressor discs and turbine blades in the hot section. They are valued for maintaining strength and corrosion resistance under extreme temperatures. Consequently, a new VIM furnace for nickel superalloys is more than a plant upgrade. It is a strategic aerospace capacity addition.

VIM Furnace for Nickel Superalloys Supports OEM and Aftermarket Demand

The VIM furnace for nickel superalloys is designed to support rising demand from both original equipment and the aftermarket. Major engine makers have already signaled higher delivery plans for 2026. At the same time, spare parts and overhaul demand remain strong across global fleets. Therefore, ATI is expanding into a market where both new-build and service demand are pulling at the same time.

ATI’s product mix strengthens the value of this capacity. The company produces six of the seven nickel-based superalloys used in latest- and next-generation jet engines. That includes proprietary grades such as 718+ and 720. As a result, the new furnace will support materials that sit deep inside high-value aerospace programs.

The contract structure also reduces some commercial risk. ATI said 80pc of the added capacity has already been secured under long-term agreements. Part of the expansion will also be funded by customers. Meanwhile, customer funding should help accelerate qualification and approval timelines. That means the project is entering service with stronger commercial visibility than a typical speculative capacity build.

Aerospace Materials Supply Chain Still Needs More Melt Capacity

Aerospace materials supply chain pressure helps explain why ATI is investing now. Aircraft production rates are rising at Boeing and Airbus across both narrowbody and widebody programs. Engine suppliers such as GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney must support those ramp-ups with more parts and more materials. Therefore, melt capacity for superalloys is becoming a real bottleneck layer in the broader aerospace chain.

ATI also noted that exact run rates remain difficult to define. Melt speeds and lead times vary depending on the superalloy grade being produced. That makes generalized capacity estimates less precise than in commodity metals. However, the broader direction is clear. ATI nickel superalloy capacity expansion is aimed at supporting a market where availability matters as much as metallurgy.

This is also part of a wider Monroe campus buildout. ATI previously announced additional remelting equipment at the same site. The new VIM furnace adds another layer of upstream capability to that strategy. As a result, the company is building a more complete production base rather than adding one isolated unit.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project matters because aerospace growth now depends on specialty melt capacity, not just final assembly rates. ATI is expanding where the bottleneck is hardest to replace quickly. If engine demand stays strong, this furnace could become one of the more important quiet additions in the nickel superalloy market.

ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal

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ARM Nkomati Nickel Mine Restart Moves Closer With Boliden Concentrate Deal
African Rainbow Minerals

ARM Nkomati nickel mine restart prospects have strengthened after African Rainbow Minerals signed a multi-year nickel concentrate sales agreement with Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden. The agreement could support the return of one of South Africa’s important multi-metal nickel assets.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine has been on care and maintenance since 2020. ARM and Norilsk Nickel placed the operation into suspension after profitability weakened because of lower output.

The ARM Nkomati nickel mine produced nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome and platinum group metals. Its potential restart would therefore add more than nickel units to the market, supporting several metals linked to batteries, stainless steel, alloys and industrial supply chains.

The deal with Boliden remains conditional. It depends on approval to recommence open-pit mining of nickel-bearing ore at Nkomati, responsible sourcing due diligence by Boliden and other regulatory clearances.

Boliden Agreement Gives Nkomati a Processing Route

The sales agreement gives ARM a potential outlet for Nkomati nickel concentrate if mining restarts. Boliden expects the concentrate to be shipped to its Harjavalta smelter in Finland.

Harjavalta produces nickel matte, making it a logical destination for nickel-bearing concentrate. The route would connect South African mine supply with European smelting capacity.

This matters because nickel concentrate needs secure processing access before a restart can become commercially meaningful. A mine can have geological potential, but it still needs offtake, logistics, smelting capacity and customer qualification.

Boliden’s responsible sourcing due diligence is also important. European smelters and customers increasingly require stronger documentation around mine origin, ESG standards and supply-chain integrity.

The agreement therefore does more than provide a buyer. It gives the Nkomati restart a possible downstream pathway into a European refining and smelting system.

For ARM, the deal could improve the commercial case for reopening the mine. For Boliden, it could provide another concentrate source for its nickel operations at a time when secure non-Indonesian nickel supply remains strategically relevant.

South African Nickel Supply Could Regain Strategic Relevance

Nkomati’s ownership structure has changed since the mine entered care and maintenance. Nornickel’s South African subsidiary agreed in November 2023 to transfer its 50% stake to ARM, and the transaction was finalised in July 2025.

Full ARM control gives the South African company more direct strategic flexibility. It can evaluate restart options without the same joint-venture complexity that previously shaped the asset.

The potential restart comes at a time when nickel markets remain divided. Indonesia dominates new supply growth, but European and western buyers are increasingly interested in diversified, traceable and geopolitically balanced feedstock.

Nkomati’s multi-metal profile adds to its relevance. Nickel remains important for stainless steel, batteries and superalloys. Cobalt supports batteries and high-performance alloys. Platinum group metals serve automotive catalysts, hydrogen technologies and industrial applications.

However, restart economics will be the decisive issue. The mine was suspended because lower output weakened profitability. Any recommencement will need a stronger operating plan, stable grades, reliable processing economics and clear market support.

The Boliden agreement is an important step, but not the final decision. The project still needs operational approval, regulatory clearance and successful due diligence before concentrate flows can resume.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ARM-Boliden agreement shows that idled nickel assets can regain value when buyers prioritise diversified and traceable supply. Nkomati’s restart will depend less on headline nickel prices alone and more on whether ARM can rebuild a reliable mine-to-smelter route.

ATI Aerospace Machining Expansion Targets Jet Engine Supply Bottlenecks

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ATI Aerospace Machining Expansion Targets Jet Engine Supply Bottlenecks
ATI Alloys

ATI aerospace machining expansion has moved downstream with a new 200,000ft² facility in Chihuahua, Mexico, focused on machining, inspection and qualification of critical jet engine components. The site has been operational since April and marks ATI’s first manufacturing location in Mexico.

ATI aerospace machining expansion strengthens the US specialty alloys producer’s position beyond raw material and forging supply. Nearly half of the new plant is dedicated to machining forged components used in high-pressure engine sections, where nickel-based superalloys are essential because of extreme heat and mechanical loads.

ATI aerospace machining expansion also addresses a persistent aerospace constraint: qualified downstream capacity. Strong demand for new engines and spare parts has increased pressure not only on alloy and forging supply, but also on machining, nondestructive testing and final quality verification.

The Chihuahua location gives ATI access to an established aerospace manufacturing cluster, trained workers and nearby suppliers. Customer qualification is already under way for components serving both existing and next-generation engine platforms.

Nickel Superalloy Machining Becomes a Critical Engine Bottleneck

High-pressure sections of jet engines operate under some of the most demanding conditions in industrial manufacturing. Components must withstand high temperatures, rotational stress, fatigue and repeated thermal cycling.

Nickel-based superalloys are therefore widely used in these engine sections because they retain strength and oxidation resistance at elevated temperatures. But producing the alloy is only one part of the supply chain.

Forged engine components require extensive precision machining before installation. Nickel superalloys are difficult to machine because of their high strength, work hardening and heat resistance, which increase tool wear and processing time.

That makes qualified machining capacity strategically important. Aerospace manufacturers cannot simply move parts to an unapproved supplier when capacity becomes tight because every process must meet strict customer and regulatory requirements.

ATI’s new facility therefore extends the company further into value-added processing. Instead of supplying only specialty alloy or forged material, it can provide more finished components closer to engine assembly.

The remainder of the Chihuahua plant is dedicated to inspection, including nondestructive testing and quality verification. These processes are critical because internal cracks, surface defects or dimensional deviations can make high-value engine components unusable.

Customer Qualification Could Deepen ATI’s Aerospace Integration

ATI said engine manufacturers and other customers are working aggressively to qualify the new facility. That suggests customers are actively looking for additional approved capacity to relieve bottlenecks.

The facility will process components for both legacy and next-generation engine models. This gives ATI exposure to two important demand streams: new aircraft production and the aftermarket replacement cycle.

Legacy engines generate recurring demand for spare components as fleets remain in service. At the same time, newer engine platforms require higher-performance materials and increasingly complex manufacturing routes.

This combination supports long-term demand for nickel superalloys, titanium and other specialty aerospace materials. But supply-chain performance increasingly depends on how quickly those materials can move through forging, machining, heat treatment, inspection and qualification.

ATI’s Mexico investment reflects this shift. Aerospace suppliers are moving closer to integrated component production as customers seek fewer bottlenecks between raw material and finished part.

Financial details and production capacity were not disclosed, so the immediate earnings impact remains unclear. But strategically, the site gives ATI a larger role in one of the highest-value sections of the aerospace materials chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ATI’s Chihuahua plant shows that aerospace shortages are moving downstream from alloy supply into machining and qualification. In jet engines, the competitive advantage increasingly belongs to suppliers that can control more of the path from superalloy to finished, approved component.

Sumitomo Ambatovy Nickel-Cobalt Exit Marks Costly Retreat From Madagascar Laterite Project

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Sumitomo Ambatovy Nickel-Cobalt Exit Marks Costly Retreat From Madagascar Laterite Project
Sumitomo

Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit marks a major strategic retreat from one of the world’s largest laterite nickel operations. The Japanese trading and mining group will divest its 54.17% stake in Madagascar’s Ambatovy project to Ambatovy Mineral Resources Investment.

The Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit is unusually costly. The transaction value is negative $418mn, meaning Sumitomo will pay to leave the asset after more than two decades of involvement.

The Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit reflects years of operational instability, high costs and weak profitability. Sumitomo joined Ambatovy in 2005 and invested around $3bn, but the project generated cumulative losses of about ¥400bn.

The sale is expected to close in the first half of Sumitomo’s financial year ending 31 March 2027. Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources will retain its 45.82% stake.

Operational Instability Undermines a Strategic Nickel Asset

Ambatovy remains strategically important because it produces refined nickel and cobalt. These materials serve stainless steel, battery raw materials, superalloys and industrial supply chains.

However, the project has struggled to operate consistently. Ambatovy combines laterite mining, slurry transport and refining, making it a complex integrated operation with high technical and maintenance demands.

The project was suspended in February before Cyclone Gezani struck eastern Madagascar. It has not yet fully restarted, although market participants expect operations to resume during the current quarter.

Recovery efforts are still continuing. The project has also faced slurry pipeline damage and other processing issues in previous years, which affected output and reliability.

Ambatovy produced about 30,000t of refined nickel in 2025. Cobalt output was estimated at roughly 10% of nickel production.

That production profile gives the asset continuing supply-chain relevance. But strategic metal exposure alone cannot offset weak operating economics if reliability, costs and weather-related risks remain unresolved.

New Ownership Faces Production Reliability Test

AMRI, the buyer, is a UK-based consortium led by mining investment firm Essenwood and South African private equity firm Zungu Investments. The transaction gives the new group control of Sumitomo’s stake in a difficult but potentially valuable nickel-cobalt platform.

For Sumitomo, the divestment removes a long-running drag on earnings. The company expects to record a loss of about ¥70bn in its consolidated April-June results and a non-consolidated loss of about ¥85bn for the full financial year.

Sumitomo said tax effects should limit the net consolidated impact, and the transfer has already been included in its full-year earnings forecast.

For the nickel market, the key issue is not ownership alone. The immediate question is whether the new structure can stabilise output, repair operating weaknesses and restore confidence in Ambatovy’s supply.

Madagascar nickel-cobalt supply remains strategically relevant as buyers look beyond Indonesia-dominated nickel growth. But Ambatovy must prove that it can deliver refined nickel and cobalt reliably before it can regain stronger market importance.

The sale also highlights a broader industry lesson. Large laterite nickel projects can offer scale and battery-metal exposure, but they often carry high capital intensity, technical risk and sensitivity to market cycles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sumitomo’s exit shows that nickel-cobalt scale is not enough when operating reliability and cost control fail. Ambatovy’s next phase will depend on whether new owners can turn a strategically valuable asset into a commercially stable supplier.


Supply Cuts to Rebalance Nickel Market, Says Nornickel

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Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) has projected a long-term rebalancing of the global nickel market, driven by price-induced closures of nickel operations, particularly in Australia and New Caledonia. These supply cuts, combined with a steady rise in demand, are expected to increase the floor price of nickel from its current range of $16,000-17,000 per ton.

Short-Term Nickel Market Outlook

In the short term, Nornickel holds a neutral stance on nickel prices. While supply cuts from loss-making operations are underway, the growing supply of Chinese Class 1 nickel—most of which is being delivered to the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Asia—has kept prices in check. The nickel market experienced a surplus of 75,000 tons in the first half of 2024, with exchange stocks rising by 40,000 tons during the same period. Nornickel estimates the global surplus will remain at 100,000 tons annually for both 2024 and 2025.

Impact of Falling Prices on Nickel Production

The sharp decline in nickel prices this year, which saw the metal dip below $16,000 per ton, has put significant pressure on producers. Nornickel estimates that over half of the world’s nickel production is currently generating only marginal positive cash flow. Approximately 400,000 tons of global nickel capacity is either idle or at risk of closure. However, the company expects a steady rise in nickel demand, driven by stainless steel production in China, a recovery in Indonesia, and continued growth in the aerospace, oil and gas, and military sectors, which require specialized alloys and superalloys.

Palladium Market Outlook and Financial Challenges

In addition to its outlook on nickel, Nornickel anticipates easing in the palladium market’s destocking by the end of the year. The company expects palladium to remain in deficit, with a shortfall of 400,000 ounces and a 2% year-on-year drop in demand to 9.6 million ounces.

Nornickel’s financial results for the first half of 2024 reflect the challenges faced by the nickel and palladium markets. Revenue dropped by 22% to $5.606 billion, while EBITDA declined by 30% to $2.35 billion. Net profit fell by 23% to $829 million. The group attributed these declines to logistical disruptions, including issues in the Red Sea, and complications arising from Western sanctions on Russia.

Copper Market Outlook

Nornickel remains cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, although near-term signals are bearish due to persistent inflation in Europe and the U.S., and deflationary concerns in China, the world's top copper consumer.

High-temperature metals and nickel rally reshape global superalloy cost structure

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High-temperature metals and nickel rally reshape global superalloy cost structure
High-temperature metals

Surging demand and constrained supply mean the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is fundamentally reshaping superalloy cost structures. Aircraft engine and industrial gas turbine manufacturers are ordering at record levels just as key refractory metals move sharply higher. As a result, the high-temperature metals and nickel rally is squeezing melters that sit between volatile raw material markets and long-dated OEM contracts.

Rhenium-led cost shock hits second-generation superalloys

Rhenium has become the epicentre of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally despite representing only a small share of alloy weight. Intrinsic values for benchmark single-crystal alloys such as Rene N5 and CMSX-4 have jumped by more than 80pc in a year. This surge reflects rhenium’s critical role in creep strength and fatigue resistance in high-pressure turbine blades. However, rhenium remains a by-product of molybdenum from copper operations, which severely limits flexible supply. Other key elements such as tantalum and hafnium have also rallied, yet their relative contribution to alloy cost is still overshadowed by rhenium in second-generation chemistries.

Producers now face a difficult trade-off between performance and affordability as the high-temperature metals and nickel rally reopens the debate over alloy design. Second-generation alloys with roughly 3pc rhenium, including Rene N5 and CMSX-4, remain the market workhorses because they balance durability with cost. Meanwhile, third-generation alloys with higher rhenium contents remain less widely adopted, as OEMs hesitate to qualify materials whose economics depend on extreme minor-metal prices.

Tight turbine capacity, nickel rally and scrap strategy

Industrial gas turbine demand is amplifying the impact of the high-temperature metals and nickel rally on alloy buyers. MAR-M 247, a key alloy for IGT blisk castings, has seen calculated costs climb alongside hafnium and other minor metals. Lead times for major OEMs such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reportedly stretch to around seven years. Commercial aircraft backlogs exceed a decade of production, leaving melt shops reluctant to miss their place in already strained queues.

Nickel’s rally adds a second layer of inflation even in lower rhenium or rhenium-free alloys. Benchmark nickel prices have jumped around 25pc since mid-December, supported by investor flows and policy risk premiums despite an oversupplied refined market. Nickel-based alloys only account for roughly 6pc of nickel demand, yet the price spike is clearly visible in less temperature-critical grades such as Inconel 718. Intrinsic values for Inconel 718 have risen on the back of nickel and niobium, lifting input costs for rings, casings and sheet parts across aerospace and energy applications.

To defend margins, melters are pushing scrap-based strategies as far as OEM specifications allow. High revert utilisation, sometimes up to 70pc of a melt, can partially shield producers from spot price volatility in primary metals. However, strict quality standards often restrict the use of externally sourced scrap, with some OEMs mandating internal revert only. Many melt shops therefore work “hand-to-mouth”, hesitant to lock in long-term tonnages at record prices while suppliers worry about replacing committed units in tightening markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The high-temperature metals and nickel rally is exposing how concentrated and opaque minor-metal supply chains remain, particularly for rhenium and tungsten. For investors and OEMs, the key strategic levers will be higher scrap utilisation, deeper recycling partnerships and more flexible alloy qualification pathways. Those who move fastest on revert, substitution and long-term offtakes will be best placed to secure turbine-grade material through the next decade of aerospace and power-generation growth.

Sherritt Nickel-Cobalt Refinery Shutdown Exposes Cuba Feedstock Risk

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Sherritt Nickel-Cobalt Refinery Shutdown Exposes Cuba Feedstock Risk
Sherritt

Sherritt nickel cobalt refinery operations at Fort Saskatchewan in Alberta will enter a shutdown state after feedstock from the company’s Moa joint venture in Cuba became unavailable.

Sherritt nickel cobalt refinery production depends on mixed sulfide precipitate shipped from the Moa mine, where nickel and cobalt ore is mined and processed before final refining in Canada.

Sherritt nickel cobalt refinery shutdown highlights the vulnerability of processing facilities that rely on a single international feed source. The company has not provided a timeline for restarting nickel and cobalt refining.

The shutdown follows fuel-related disruptions at Moa and increased US sanctions on Cuba, which led Sherritt to suspend its direct participation in the joint venture.

Cuba Disruption Breaks the Mine-to-Refinery Supply Chain

The Moa joint venture is owned equally by Sherritt and Cuba’s General Nickel Company. Its operating model links Cuban mining and intermediate processing directly with Canadian refining.

Ore from Moa is processed into mixed sulfide precipitate before shipment to Fort Saskatchewan for conversion into finished nickel and cobalt products.

That structure becomes vulnerable when upstream operations stop. Sherritt had already warned that existing refinery feed inventories would last only until around mid-June.

Fuel shortages initially forced the Moa operation to suspend mining activity in February. Additional uncertainty followed after the US expanded sanctions on Cuba, prompting Sherritt to suspend its direct participation in the joint venture in May.

The refinery will remain shut until Moa mining and processing resume and enough intermediate material is available to rebuild feed supply.

This shows that refining capacity alone does not guarantee critical mineral security. A plant can remain technically capable of producing metal while geopolitical or logistical problems interrupt the upstream feed required to operate it.

Nickel and Cobalt Output Stops While Byproduct Production Continues

Sherritt will use the shutdown period to carry out maintenance at Fort Saskatchewan.

The company will continue producing fertilizer and sulfuric acid, showing that some parts of the industrial complex can remain operational even while nickel and cobalt refining is suspended.

However, the loss of finished nickel and cobalt output reduces North American availability of two important materials used across stainless steel, superalloys, batteries and other industrial applications.

Cobalt is particularly relevant to aerospace, defence and battery supply chains, while refined nickel remains important for both conventional metallurgy and selected battery chemistries.

The disruption also underlines the strategic importance of diversified feedstock. Refiners that can process material from multiple mines or jurisdictions have greater resilience when one supply route fails.

For Sherritt, the key issue is therefore not refinery maintenance but restoration of a stable Cuban feed stream.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fort Saskatchewan shows that midstream capacity is only as secure as its upstream feed. North American critical minerals policy must address concentrate and intermediate supply alongside domestic refining capacity.

Sherritt Moa Nickel-Cobalt Suspension Deepens Cuba Supply Chain Risk

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Sherritt Moa Nickel-Cobalt Suspension Deepens Cuba Supply Chain Risk
Sherritt

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt suspension has moved from sanctions review to direct operational action after the Canadian miner and refiner halted its participation in activities tied to the Moa joint venture in Cuba. The decision follows new US sanctions authority that could target entities operating in Cuba’s metals and mining sector.

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt suspension is significant because the Moa joint venture links Cuban mine and intermediate processing operations with Sherritt’s refining capacity in Alberta. Ore is mined and processed in Cuba into mixed sulfide precipitate containing nickel and cobalt, then shipped to Canada for refining.

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt suspension adds another layer of disruption to an already fragile supply route. The company had temporarily suspended mining operations at Moa in February because of fuel supply problems in Cuba.

Although Sherritt was not directly named in the new US sanctions, the company said the executive order is expected to create conditions that make operating in Cuba more difficult. That risk was enough for Sherritt to suspend direct participation in Moa-related activities.

Sanctions Risk Hits a Cross-Border Nickel and Cobalt Chain

The new US executive order expands sanctions authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It allows Washington to sanction entities operating in Cuba’s metals and mining sector, along with several other industries.

That broad language creates uncertainty for companies with Cuban exposure. Even without direct designation, counterparties may become more cautious around shipping, banking, insurance, payments, logistics and commercial contracts.

For Sherritt, the issue is not only legal exposure. It is the practical ability to keep a cross-border supply chain functioning when sanctions risk rises around the Cuban mining sector.

The Moa joint venture is co-owned by Sherritt and the General Nickel Company of Cuba. Its structure depends on Cuban ore mining, local MSP production and shipment to Canada for refining.

Mixed sulfide precipitate is a critical intermediate product because it carries both nickel and cobalt units into downstream refining. Any interruption in MSP flows can affect feed availability at the refinery level.

Nickel and cobalt remain important to batteries, stainless steel, superalloys, industrial chemicals and advanced manufacturing. That makes Moa strategically relevant despite its political and logistical complexity.

Alberta Refinery Continues but Feedstock Window Narrows

Sherritt said its Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Alberta has not been affected by the suspension and will continue producing finished nickel and cobalt. Existing feed at the site is expected to last until mid-June.

That timeline is now critical. If Cuban MSP flows do not resume or alternative feedstock is not secured, refinery operations could face greater pressure once inventories are depleted.

The situation shows how refining capacity can still be vulnerable when upstream feedstock depends on a politically exposed jurisdiction. A refinery may remain operational, but its production outlook depends on the continuity of intermediate material supply.

The February fuel-related suspension at Moa already showed that physical operating conditions in Cuba were difficult. The latest sanctions-driven action compounds that problem by adding policy risk to fuel and logistics constraints.

For customers, the key question is whether Sherritt can maintain finished nickel and cobalt output after mid-June. Buyers will also watch for any change in shipment schedules, inventory levels and alternative feed strategies.

For the wider market, Sherritt’s case highlights a broader critical minerals reality. Western supply security cannot be measured only by refining location. It must include mine jurisdiction, intermediate processing, sanctions exposure, energy availability and shipping routes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt’s Moa suspension shows that critical minerals supply chains can be disrupted by policy risk even before a company is directly sanctioned. The lesson for nickel and cobalt buyers is clear: feedstock origin and political exposure now matter as much as refining capacity.

Vale Labor Deal Reduces Strike Risk at Ontario Copper and Nickel Operations

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Vale Labor Deal Reduces Strike Risk at Ontario Copper and Nickel Operations
Vale

Vale labor deal discussions have produced a tentative collective agreement with United Steelworkers locals representing production and maintenance workers at Vale Base Metals operations in Ontario. The agreement could reduce strike risk at a key Canadian copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals production base.

Vale labor deal terms still require union ratification. USW Local 6500 will hold information sessions on 27-28 May, followed by online voting from Thursday morning to Friday evening.

Vale labor deal approval would come just before the current five-year collective agreement expires on 31 May. The timing is important because union members had already voted strongly in favour of a strike mandate earlier this month.

The tentative agreement therefore matters for supply continuity. Vale’s Ontario operations remain an important source of finished nickel and copper for North American industrial and critical minerals supply chains.

Sudbury Operations Remain Strategically Important

Vale’s Sudbury operations include several mines, a mill, smelter and refinery. The complex produces copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals, making it one of the most important integrated base metals operations in Canada.

The site’s role is especially important because nickel and cobalt remain critical to batteries, superalloys, stainless steel, defence applications and advanced manufacturing. Copper supports electrification, grids, data centres and industrial equipment.

Vale produced 59,400t of finished nickel at Sudbury in 2025. That accounted for about 34% of the company’s total finished nickel output that year.

Sudbury also produced 63,800t of finished copper in 2025, equal to about 17% of Vale’s total finished copper production. Any labour disruption would therefore carry company-level and regional supply-chain significance.

The Port Colborne refinery adds another downstream dimension. It produces electro-cobalt, processes precious metals and distributes finished nickel products.

Ratification Will Decide Supply Continuity

The tentative agreement is not yet final. Union members must approve the deal before it becomes the new labour contract.

That vote will be closely watched because Local 6500 members voted 97.64% in support of a strike mandate earlier this month. Such a strong mandate gave the union significant leverage during negotiations.

A ratified agreement would provide operational stability for Vale Base Metals in Ontario. It would also reduce uncertainty for customers that depend on Canadian nickel, copper, cobalt and refined products.

For North American critical minerals policy, labour stability matters. Governments and manufacturers are trying to build secure supply chains, but mine and refinery output still depends on workforce agreements, site reliability and downstream processing capacity.

The broader market impact depends on the vote. If workers approve the deal, Vale can avoid immediate disruption at a strategically important metals complex. If not, strike risk could quickly return as the current agreement expires.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Vale agreement shows that critical minerals security is not only about geology, capital or policy. Labour stability at integrated mining, smelting and refining assets is just as important to reliable nickel, copper and cobalt supply.

Sherritt Refinery Shutdown Exposes Canada’s Dependence on Cuban Nickel Feed

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Sherritt Refinery Shutdown Exposes Canada’s Dependence on Cuban Nickel Feed
Sherritt International

Sherritt refinery shutdown plans will halt nickel and cobalt production at the company’s Fort Saskatchewan facility in Alberta after feedstock from Cuba’s Moa joint venture ran out. The move highlights how upstream disruption can strand downstream refining capacity even in a politically secure jurisdiction.

Sherritt refinery shutdown operations will remain in place until mining and processing at Moa can resume and mixed sulfide precipitate shipments to Canada are restored. The company has not given a restart timeline.

Sherritt refinery shutdown is strategically important because Fort Saskatchewan converts Cuban mixed sulfide precipitate into finished nickel and cobalt. The refinery therefore depends on continuity across mining, processing, shipping and sanctions-sensitive trade routes.

Sherritt will use the shutdown period to complete maintenance work. Fertilizer and sulfuric acid production will continue, preserving part of the site’s industrial activity while nickel and cobalt refining is suspended.

Moa Feed Disruption Strands Canadian Refining Capacity

The Fort Saskatchewan refinery relies on the Moa joint venture in Cuba for its nickel and cobalt feed. Ore is mined and processed at Moa into mixed sulfide precipitate before being shipped to Alberta for refining.

That supply chain began to weaken in February when fuel shortages forced the joint venture to suspend mining operations. Feed inventories in Canada subsequently declined, with Sherritt previously expecting available material to last only until mid-June.

The problem then became more complex in May. Sherritt suspended direct participation in the Moa joint venture after the US expanded sanctions on Cuba under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The company has maintained that suspension, leaving the future of Cuban production uncertain. Without fresh MSP shipments, Fort Saskatchewan cannot continue normal nickel and cobalt refining.

This illustrates a critical supply-chain weakness. Refining assets may sit inside Canada, but their security still depends on where upstream feed originates.

For North American critical minerals policy, that distinction matters. Domestic refining capacity does not create supply independence if raw materials remain tied to politically exposed jurisdictions.

Nickel and Cobalt Supply Security Shifts Toward Feedstock Control

Nickel and cobalt remain important to batteries, superalloys, aerospace, industrial chemicals and defence-related manufacturing. Reliable refining capacity is therefore strategically valuable.

But Sherritt’s shutdown shows that feedstock security must be treated as part of refinery security. A plant without dependable concentrate or intermediate supply becomes an idle asset regardless of its technical capability.

The Fort Saskatchewan site still has value because its processing infrastructure and operating expertise remain in place. Maintenance during the shutdown may help preserve restart readiness if Moa supply resumes.

However, the absence of a clear restart timeline increases uncertainty. Sherritt must either restore the Cuban supply chain or eventually secure another viable feed route if the disruption becomes prolonged.

The situation also raises a broader question for western critical minerals strategies. Governments are investing heavily in domestic processing, but those projects need diversified and compliant raw material sources to remain resilient.

Sherritt’s experience shows why mining, intermediate processing and refining must be planned as one integrated supply chain rather than separate assets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fort Saskatchewan is a reminder that secure refining capacity is only as strong as its feedstock chain. Canada can host the refinery, but without reliable upstream material, geopolitical risk still determines whether nickel and cobalt actually reach the market.

Brazil Flight Demand Hits New May Record as Domestic and International Traffic Grow

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Brazil Flight Demand Hits New May Record as Domestic and International Traffic Grow
Brazil's flight

Brazil flight demand continued to expand in May, with domestic and international airlines carrying a combined 10.6mn passengers. The result marked Brazil’s fifth monthly passenger record this year and reinforced the strength of one of Latin America’s largest aviation markets.

Brazil flight demand rose across both domestic and international routes. Domestic airlines transported 8.3mn passengers, up 1.9% from May 2025 and the highest May volume in Brazilian aviation history.

Brazil flight demand measured by revenue passenger kilometres also increased by 2.5% year on year, while available seat kilometres rose by 2.8%. The figures show airlines are adding capacity broadly in line with passenger growth.

The trend is relevant beyond airlines. Sustained traffic growth supports aircraft utilisation, fleet expansion, maintenance demand and longer-term consumption of aerospace materials including aluminium, titanium and nickel-based alloys.

Domestic Traffic Supports Fleet and Maintenance Demand

Latam’s Brazilian subsidiary carried 3.3mn domestic passengers in May, up 5.3% from a year earlier. Its domestic market share increased to almost 40% from 38.5% in May 2025.

Gol held 31.5% of the domestic market, up from 30.4%, while Azul’s share declined to 28.7% from 31%. This shift shows that passenger growth is also reshaping competition among Brazil’s leading carriers.

Rising passenger volumes increase aircraft utilisation, which supports demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services. Higher utilisation also accelerates component replacement cycles across engines, landing gear, structures and cabin systems.

For aerospace materials suppliers, this matters because growing flight activity supports recurring demand beyond new aircraft production. Titanium, aluminium, specialty steels and nickel superalloys are consumed through both original equipment manufacturing and aftermarket maintenance.

Brazil also has strategic significance because of Embraer’s domestic manufacturing base. Strong local aviation demand can support a broader aerospace ecosystem across aircraft production, components, maintenance and engineering services.

International Growth Adds to Brazil’s Aviation Momentum

International passenger traffic reached 2.2mn in May, up 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest volume recorded for the month.

International flight demand rose by 4.4% year on year, while capacity increased by 3.5%. Demand therefore grew faster than supply, suggesting firm utilisation of international routes.

Latam accounted for 21.8% of Brazil’s international flight demand and increased its international traffic by 15.7%. Tap followed with a 9.5% share, while Azul held 4.8%.

The expansion of international traffic strengthens Brazil’s role as a regional aviation hub. It also supports widebody aircraft utilisation, international maintenance networks and airport infrastructure investment.

For metals markets, aviation growth is important because aircraft manufacturing remains one of the highest-value demand sectors for titanium and nickel superalloys. Strong passenger traffic ultimately supports fleet replacement and expansion when airlines maintain confidence in future demand.

Brazil’s repeated passenger records therefore offer a positive signal for the wider aerospace supply chain. The immediate effect is stronger aircraft utilisation, while the longer-term implication is greater pressure for fleet capacity, maintenance and new aircraft deliveries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s aviation growth is becoming an industrial signal as well as a transport story. Sustained passenger demand should support aircraft utilisation, MRO activity and longer-term aerospace metals consumption across Latin America.

Safran Forging Press Expansion Strengthens France’s Jet Engine Supply Chain

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Safran Forging Press Expansion Strengthens France’s Jet Engine Supply Chain
Safran, Forging

Safran forging press investment in Gennevilliers will expand the French engine manufacturer’s capacity to produce large, high-performance aerospace components. The company plans to install a 30,000t hydraulic press that is expected to become operational in 2029.

The €150mn press will be able to produce 14,000 parts a year at full capacity. It will support higher output of the CFM International LEAP engine, which Safran jointly manufactures with GE Aerospace.

Safran forging press expansion also supports military engine supply chains. The new equipment will help produce parts for engines used in the Rafale, Mirage and A400M aircraft, as well as high-thrust GE engines where Safran supplies high-pressure and low-pressure compressors.

The investment shows how aerospace manufacturers are preparing for sustained engine demand. Airbus and Boeing are both trying to raise production rates for the A320neo Family and 737 MAX, increasing pressure on qualified forging, casting, machining and superalloy supply chains.

High-Tonnage Forging Capacity Targets Future Engine Programmes

The new Safran forging press will give the company more capability to manufacture large engine parts. This is important because next-generation civil aircraft engines are expected to require larger, more complex and more demanding forged components.

Large hydraulic presses are strategic assets in aerospace manufacturing. They allow producers to shape high-strength alloys under controlled conditions, improving structural integrity, fatigue performance and reliability in critical rotating and static engine parts.

The press will also reduce dependence on constrained external forging capacity. Aerospace supply chains have faced recurring bottlenecks in qualified forgings, castings, titanium products, nickel alloy parts and precision-machined components.

For Safran, adding high-tonnage forging capacity supports both current programmes and future engine platforms. The investment strengthens control over key manufacturing steps at a time when engine makers are trying to improve delivery reliability.

Nickel Superalloys and Titanium Remain Critical Engine Materials

Safran’s investment has direct implications for high-performance metals. Nickel-based superalloys are essential for turbine forgings because they retain strength, creep resistance and oxidation resistance at extreme temperatures.

These materials are used in the hottest sections of jet engines, where ordinary alloys cannot survive. As engine efficiency targets rise, demand for advanced nickel superalloy processing remains strategically important.

Titanium is also critical in lower-temperature engine sections, including low-pressure compressors. Its high strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance make it essential for aerospace systems where weight reduction and mechanical performance matter together.

The Gennevilliers project follows Safran’s broader capacity buildout. The company is investing in a new turbine casting facility in La Janais, Rennes, scheduled for commissioning in 2027, and has committed €70mn to expand complex rotating part capacity at Le Creusot by 2029.

Together, these investments point to a coordinated engine materials strategy. Safran is strengthening forging, casting and rotating component capacity to support civil and military aerospace demand through the next production cycle.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s 30,000t press shows that aerospace competitiveness increasingly depends on control of qualified materials processing capacity. Nickel superalloy and titanium supply will remain critical as engine makers race to meet higher build rates without sacrificing reliability.

Nornickel Reports Increase in Nickel Output for Q2 2024

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Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the Russian multi-metals mining giant, has reported a significant year-on-year increase in its nickel production for the second quarter of 2024. This rise is primarily attributed to increased ore output from its mining assets and higher production volumes of premium-grade nickel, which is crucial for the electroplating and superalloys sectors.

From April to June, Nornickel's nickel production surged by 8.16% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 48,304 tonnes. This marks a 15% increase from the first quarter, a growth driven by the company's implementation of an operational efficiency program.


First Half of 2024 Sees Slight Decline

Despite the robust performance in the second quarter, the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in nickel production. The total output for the first six months fell by 1% year-on-year to 90,236 tonnes. This decrease was largely due to the scheduled repairs of the flash smelting furnace No. 2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant.


Shifting Market Focus

In response to the declining demand for its traditional cathode products, Nornickel is exploring integration opportunities with the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in Asia. The company is also increasing its focus on high-purity nickel segments. However, nickel products from its Harjavalta refinery face a potential suspension from the London Metal Exchange (LME) in October due to ESG compliance issues, complicating the market landscape.


Copper and PGM Production

Nornickel's copper production also saw a sharp increase in the second quarter. Through a process optimization program at its Norilsk Division copper plant, the company produced 108,812 tonnes of copper, marking a 14.7% rise from the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 showed a 7% increase, reaching 218,575 tonnes.

Conversely, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced a downturn. Changes in the PGM ratio of processed raw materials led to a 3.42% drop in palladium output, totaling 735,000 ounces, and a 5.06% decline in platinum output, totaling 178,000 ounces in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, palladium production fell by 0.1% to 1.48 million ounces, while platinum output decreased by 3% to 356,000 ounces.


Future Projections

Nornickel has maintained its annual production guidance for 2024, expecting to produce between 184,000 and 194,000 tonnes of finished nickel. The company’s guidance for copper remains unchanged at 334,000 to 354,000 tonnes, and for platinum and palladium at 567,000 to 605,000 ounces and 2.30 to 2.45 million ounces, respectively.

Sherritt Cuba Sanctions Risk Clouds Moa Nickel-Cobalt Supply Chain

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Sherritt Cuba Sanctions Risk Clouds Moa Nickel-Cobalt Supply Chain
Sherritt

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk has become a new uncertainty for Canadian metals miner and refiner Sherritt International after the US expanded its sanctions framework targeting Cuba. The company is consulting advisers and stakeholders to assess possible implications for its Cuban mining and refining exposure.

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk centres on the company’s Moa joint venture with the General Nickel Company of Cuba. The operation mines and processes nickel and cobalt ore in Cuba before shipping mixed sulphide precipitate to Sherritt’s refinery in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta.

Sherritt Cuba sanctions risk has increased after US president Donald Trump issued an executive order on 1 May broadening existing Cuba-related restrictions. The order allows the US to sanction entities operating in Cuba’s metals and mining sector, as well as energy, defence, financial services, security and other parts of the Cuban economy.

The development matters because Moa is not only a Cuban mining asset. It is part of a cross-border nickel and cobalt processing chain that links Cuban ore production with Canadian refining capacity.

Moa Joint Venture Faces Sanctions and Fuel Supply Pressure

The Moa joint venture produces mixed sulphide precipitate containing nickel and cobalt. Ore is mined and processed at the Moa site in Cuba, then shipped to Alberta for refining.

This structure gives Sherritt exposure to two different risks. The first is sanctions policy. The second is physical supply continuity from Cuba.

The company had already suspended mining operations at Moa in February because of fuel supply problems in Cuba. That disruption reduced upstream feed availability and raised concerns over refinery inventory in Canada.

Sherritt said in February that its Fort Saskatchewan refinery feed inventory was expected to last until mid-April. The new sanctions uncertainty adds another layer of pressure to an already fragile supply chain.

Nickel and cobalt remain important materials for batteries, stainless steel, superalloys, industrial chemicals and defence-related supply chains. Any disruption to feedstock or refining routes can affect customers that rely on qualified supply.

The Moa operation is therefore strategically important despite its geopolitical complexity. It supplies intermediate material that can be refined into products serving North American industrial demand.

US Policy Adds Complexity to Critical Minerals Trade

The executive order broadens the list of possible sanctions targets linked to Cuba. Metals and mining are now explicitly included, raising compliance risk for companies with Cuban operations or Cuban-linked material flows.

For Sherritt, the immediate issue is clarity. The company must determine whether its ownership structure, product flows, financing relationships, logistics providers or customers could be affected by the expanded sanctions framework.

This matters because sanctions risk can affect more than direct operations. It can influence shipping, banking, insurance, payment processing, customer contracts and counterparty willingness to handle material.

The case also highlights a difficult reality in critical minerals policy. Western governments want secure nickel and cobalt supply, but some existing supply chains run through politically sensitive jurisdictions.

Canada’s refining capacity at Fort Saskatchewan is valuable, but its feedstock connection to Cuba creates exposure to US policy decisions. That makes Sherritt’s position more complicated than a conventional mining or refining business.

The outcome will depend on how broadly Washington applies the new order and whether Sherritt’s activities become directly targeted. Until then, customers and investors are likely to watch for guidance on operational continuity, legal exposure and feedstock availability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt’s situation shows that critical minerals security is not only about mine reserves or refining capacity. Political jurisdiction, sanctions exposure and feedstock logistics can determine whether a nickel-cobalt supply chain remains bankable.

Sherritt Stake Sale Plan Follows Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Exit

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Sherritt Stake Sale Plan Follows Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Exit
Sherritt

Sherritt stake sale plans have emerged as the Canadian metals firm faces a major strategic reset after moving to dissolve its Moa nickel-cobalt joint venture in Cuba. The company has entered into a non-binding agreement that could allow US investment firm Gillon Capital to acquire 55% of its shares.

Sherritt stake sale terms have not yet been finalised. The company expects the purchase price to be set at a discount to the current share price, with Gillon able to complete the acquisition no later than nine months from closing.

Sherritt stake sale discussions come directly after the company chose to dissolve the Moa joint venture with the General Nickel Company of Cuba. That decision followed new US sanctions authority targeting Cuban entities and sectors, including metals and mining.

The transaction would mark a major ownership shift for Sherritt at a time when its core nickel and cobalt supply chain is under sanctions, fuel and feedstock pressure.

Cuba Sanctions Push Sherritt Toward Strategic Restructuring

Sherritt’s Moa joint venture has been central to its nickel and cobalt business. Ore is mined and processed into mixed sulfide precipitate at Moa in Cuba, then shipped to Canada for refining at Fort Saskatchewan in Alberta.

That cross-border structure has become increasingly difficult. The Moa operation was already affected by fuel supply problems in Cuba, forcing a temporary mining suspension in February.

The situation worsened after the US issued an executive order on 1 May expanding sanctions powers against Cuban entities. Although Sherritt was not directly named, the order allows sanctions on companies operating in Cuba’s metals and mining sector.

Sherritt suspended direct participation in Moa joint venture activities on 7 May. It then announced plans to send a dissolution notice to its Cuban partner on 15 May.

The decision shows how sanctions risk can disrupt critical minerals supply chains even without a direct designation. Shipping, banking, insurance, financing and counterparty confidence can all be affected when operating exposure becomes politically sensitive.

Fort Saskatchewan Refinery Faces Feedstock Uncertainty

Sherritt’s Fort Saskatchewan refinery remains strategically valuable because it can produce finished nickel and cobalt in Canada. However, its feedstock link to Cuba is now the central weakness.

The Moa joint venture supplied mixed sulfide precipitate to the Alberta refinery. If that feedstock route remains disrupted or is dissolved permanently, Sherritt will need alternative material sources to keep refining operations stable.

This matters for North American supply chains. Nickel and cobalt are important for batteries, superalloys, industrial chemicals and defence-linked manufacturing.

The possible Gillon Capital transaction could give Sherritt a new ownership and financing path, but it will still require regulatory approval. The US Departments of State and Treasury do not oppose Gillon’s participation in negotiations, but any later transaction would need their approval.

That condition underlines the political sensitivity of Sherritt’s restructuring. The company’s future will depend not only on investor appetite, but also on sanctions compliance, government approval and feedstock strategy.

For the wider nickel and cobalt market, Sherritt’s situation is a warning. Refining capacity in a secure jurisdiction is not enough if upstream feedstock remains tied to a politically exposed source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt is becoming a case study in how sanctions can force a critical minerals company into ownership and supply-chain restructuring. The key issue is whether a new investor can help rebuild the business around secure feedstock for Fort Saskatchewan.

GE Aerospace European Manufacturing Investment Expands Engine Production Capacity

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GE Aerospace European Manufacturing Investment Expands Engine Production Capacity
GE Aerospace

GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will strengthen the company’s engine production footprint across key European sites in 2026. The US aerospace manufacturer plans to invest €113 million, or about $130 million, to expand capacity and accelerate advanced manufacturing capabilities across the region.

The GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will be concentrated mainly in Italy, which will receive €77 million. Poland will receive €15 million, the UK €10 million, the Czech Republic €8 million, and Romania €3 million.

The investment also reflects a wider aerospace supply chain challenge. GE plans to hire more than 1,000 workers across Europe this year as engine manufacturers compete for skilled labor, machining capacity, testing capability, and advanced production expertise.

Engine Test Cells and Machining Capacity Target Aerospace Bottlenecks

GE Aerospace will direct a large share of the spending toward state-of-the-art engine test cells, advanced machining equipment, additive manufacturing expansion, and facility upgrades. These areas are critical because modern aircraft engines depend on high-precision components, tight process control, and reliable testing capacity.

The GE Aerospace European manufacturing investment will support commercial narrowbody and widebody engine programs. It will also strengthen military engine programs, giving the company more flexibility across civil and defense aerospace demand.

This matters for metals and advanced materials supply chains because jet engine production relies on nickel superalloys, titanium alloys, precision castings, forged parts, coatings, and heat-resistant components. More machining and additive manufacturing capacity can increase demand for certified aerospace-grade feedstock and high-performance alloy parts.

European Expansion Aligns With Wider US Production Push

GE Aerospace’s European plan follows a larger investment program in the US. The company recently announced another €1 billion-equivalent spending plan for production plants and its supplier base this year, covering new equipment, infrastructure upgrades, expanded testing capacity, and retooling across 29 facilities in 17 US states.

A key part of the US investment will support upgraded high-pressure turbine blade capacity for LEAP engines. GE Aerospace produces LEAP engines through CFM International, its joint venture with France-based Safran Aircraft Engines.

Together, the US and European investments show that GE Aerospace is preparing for sustained engine demand and tighter aerospace supply chains. The strategy points to more capital spending on bottleneck processes such as turbine blades, machining, testing, additive manufacturing, and high-temperature engine components.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GE Aerospace’s investment is not just a capacity expansion. It is a signal that aerospace manufacturing competitiveness now depends on advanced equipment, skilled labor, and secure high-performance materials supply. For specialty metals suppliers, this reinforces the long-term opportunity in titanium, nickel superalloys, precision castings, and additive manufacturing feedstock.

Nornickel Nickel Surplus Narrows but Persists into 2026

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Nornickel Nickel Surplus Narrows but Persists into 2026
Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus will remain in place through 2026, though it narrows from 2024 levels. The Nornickel nickel surplus forecast sits at 120,000-130,000t for 2025-26. As a result, the Nornickel nickel surplus still weighs on class 1 prices and investment plans.

Demand grows while supply still outpaces

Global nickel demand rises strongly into 2026. Nornickel projects 5% growth this year to 3.62mn t. It expects another 6% rise next year to 3.82mn t. Stainless steel expansion in China remains the main driver. However, non-stainless uses like superalloys also strengthen. Meanwhile, EV trends shift toward non-nickel chemistries, trimming chemicals demand.

Indonesia risks and price pressure shape supply

Supply still expands enough to keep a surplus. Nornickel sees primary supply up 4% in 2025 to 3.74mn t. It expects 6% growth in 2026 to 3.95mn t. However, Indonesia faces ore tightness and grade decline risks. Higher royalties could also curb output. Therefore, marginal producers outside Indonesia face losses at $15,000-16,000/t LME. Closures later this year look increasingly likely.

Global balance trends favor gradual tightening. The surplus eases from 170,000-180,000t in 2024. Yet inventories and cheaper class 2 units cap rallies. Price spreads between class 1 and intermediates remain narrow. Investment decisions will hinge on sustained deficits, not brief squeezes.

Corporate performance supports cautious optimism. Nornickel reported first-half Ebitda of $2.6bn, up 12% year on year. Cost control and mix helped offset price headwinds. Even so, capital discipline remains essential until surpluses clear.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel fundamentals improve, but not fast enough to flip the balance by 2026. Watch Indonesian ore policy, class 2 to class 1 conversions, and EV chemistry choices. A durable bull case likely needs project delays plus stronger Western alloy demand.

Norsk Titanium RPD Technology Targets US Submarine Applications

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Norsk Titanium RPD Technology Targets US Submarine Applications
Norsk Titanium

Norsk Titanium RPD technology is moving deeper into US defense applications after the company secured a $4.2mn contract to develop rapid plasma deposition for maritime and submarine use.

Norsk Titanium RPD technology will be developed over an 18-month period under the Defense Industrial Base Expansion, Development, and Growth Enterprise initiative. The work will focus on qualifying additive-manufactured products for highly critical naval applications.

Norsk Titanium RPD technology is already established around titanium alloys, but the new programme will also expand the process into nickel-based alloys. That broadens the potential market from corrosion-resistant structural components into higher-temperature and more demanding applications.

The programme is strategically important because submarine supply chains require highly qualified materials, long service lives and strict control over metallurgy and manufacturing consistency.

Titanium Additive Manufacturing Fits Maritime Corrosion Requirements

Titanium is especially valuable in marine environments because of its strong corrosion resistance in seawater.

Commercially pure titanium and alloys such as Grade 5 and Grade 7 can provide long-term durability where conventional steels would require greater corrosion protection or maintenance.

This makes titanium attractive for submarine and maritime components exposed to saltwater, pressure and difficult operating conditions.

Additive manufacturing can add another advantage. Near-net-shape production can reduce the amount of expensive titanium that must be machined away from forged or wrought stock.

That can improve material utilisation and shorten lead times for complex components, particularly where conventional manufacturing requires large forgings or extensive machining.

For defense programmes, reducing dependence on long-lead forgings can be strategically valuable. Qualified additive processes could provide an alternative route for components where supply capacity is constrained.

However, qualification remains the critical barrier. Submarine components operate in safety-critical environments, so mechanical properties, fatigue behaviour, defect control and repeatability must be demonstrated before widespread adoption.

Nickel Alloys Could Expand RPD Beyond Structural Titanium

The move into nickel-based alloys could significantly broaden Norsk Titanium's addressable market.

Nickel superalloys are widely used where components must retain strength, corrosion resistance and thermal stability under demanding conditions.

For naval applications, this could create opportunities in propulsion, high-temperature systems and specialised mechanical components alongside titanium structures.

The combination of titanium and nickel alloy capability would also strengthen Norsk Titanium's position as a broader defense manufacturing supplier rather than a single-material additive producer.

The US defense industrial base is increasingly focused on manufacturing resilience, particularly for components dependent on limited forging, casting or machining capacity.

RPD technology could support that objective if it can reduce lead times while meeting military qualification standards.

The longer-term significance therefore lies in process substitution. Norsk is not simply selling additive manufacturing equipment; it is trying to qualify a new production route for materials and components traditionally supplied through conventional metallurgical processes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Norsk Titanium's submarine programme shows that additive manufacturing is moving into increasingly critical defense applications. If RPD qualifies successfully in both titanium and nickel alloys, the technology could reduce dependence on long-lead forgings and expand flexibility across the naval supply chain.

RTC Aerospace Acquisition Expands US Titanium and Superalloy Machining Capacity

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RTC Aerospace Acquisition Expands US Titanium and Superalloy Machining Capacity
RTC Aerospace

RTC Aerospace acquisition of Automatic Products expands the US manufacturer’s machining capacity for complex aerospace and defence components. The deal adds a fifth production facility and strengthens RTCA’s position in precision manufacturing for high-value aircraft applications.

RTC Aerospace acquisition includes Automatic Products’ 120,000ft² facility in Sumner, Washington. The site adds capabilities across milling, turning, deburring, grinding and honing.

RTC Aerospace acquisition is strategically important because the plant processes high-temperature metals and superalloys including titanium, stainless steel and Inconel. These materials are widely used in aerospace structures, engines and defence systems where machining capability is highly specialised.

Financial terms were not disclosed, but the transaction broadens RTCA’s manufacturing footprint and gives the company more capacity to serve commercial and military aerospace customers.

Titanium and Inconel Machining Add Strategic Capacity

Aerospace machining requires more than conventional metalworking. Titanium and nickel-based superalloys are difficult to process because of their strength, heat resistance and tendency to generate high tool wear.

Automatic Products brings established capability in these materials. That matters as aerospace production rises and manufacturers seek qualified suppliers able to machine complex components at consistent quality.

Titanium remains important for aircraft structures, landing systems and engine-related applications because of its strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance. Inconel and other nickel superalloys are essential for components exposed to high temperatures and mechanical stress.

The Sumner facility therefore adds capacity in precisely the materials where aerospace supply chains can face bottlenecks. Increasing machining capability can help convert more forged, cast or wrought metal into finished aerospace parts.

The acquisition also provides RTCA with additional production flexibility. Multiple facilities allow manufacturers to distribute workloads, manage customer programmes and reduce dependency on individual sites.

Aerospace Growth Supports Precision Manufacturing Consolidation

The deal reflects broader consolidation across the aerospace supply chain. Aircraft manufacturers and defence contractors increasingly need suppliers with enough scale to support higher production volumes while maintaining strict quality and traceability.

Machining businesses can benefit from this trend because qualified aerospace components often require extensive processing after primary metal production. That gives specialised manufacturers an important role between mills, forgers and final aircraft assemblers.

RTCA’s expanded footprint could also improve its ability to manage larger programmes and more complex assemblies. The addition of grinding, honing and finishing capabilities strengthens the company’s position beyond basic machining.

For metals suppliers, the deal reinforces the importance of downstream processing capacity. More titanium or superalloy production does not automatically translate into aircraft output unless qualified machining capacity is also available.

As commercial and defence aerospace demand grows, companies that control both capacity and specialised process knowledge will have a stronger position in the supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

RTCA’s acquisition shows that aerospace bottlenecks increasingly sit in qualified machining, not only raw metal supply. Titanium and Inconel capacity becomes more valuable when manufacturers can reliably convert those materials into flight-ready components.