EU Silico-Manganese Prices Unlikely to Rally Despite Filled Quotas

Silico-Manganese

EU silico-manganese prices are unlikely to rise sharply despite the rapid exhaustion of tariff-free import quotas for Indian material and supply from other developing countries. Weak end-user demand, existing stock coverage and summer maintenance at steel mills are limiting the price impact.

EU silico-manganese prices did move higher after the third safeguard quota period opened on 18 May. Importers tried to pass duty costs through to consumers, lifting prices by €30/t on 21 May.

EU silico-manganese prices still face resistance from buyers. Many large steel consumers already secured annual contracts or imported material before the safeguards took effect, leaving limited spot demand in the market.

The result is a tighter import structure without a strong demand shock. Quota exhaustion is raising costs for importers, but it has not yet created the kind of physical shortage needed to force a major price rally.

Filled TRQs Raise Import Costs but Demand Remains Covered

Importers submitted 41,993t of Indian silico-manganese for clearance on the first day of the new quota period. That exceeded the available Indian quota of 31,959t by 10,034t.

Only 76% of the submitted Indian material was allocated inside the quota. The rest had to clear as out-of-quota material, exposing importers to higher costs under the EU safeguard mechanism.

The safeguard system combines country-specific tariff-rate quotas with a variable duty on excess imports. The duty is calculated against a price threshold, effectively creating a minimum import price.

For silico-manganese, that minimum import price is €1,392/t. This is well above the recent European delivered market assessment of €1,080-1,130/t.

That gap creates immediate pressure on traders holding out-of-quota material. One trader said the duty impact on part of his cargo would raise his average import cost by about €120/t across the full shipment.

Some suppliers have increased offers by around €50/t and are holding material while they assess market direction. But buyers are not accepting higher prices quickly because cheaper unsold units remain available in smaller volumes.

The timing also weakens the price case. European mills typically reduce activity during the summer maintenance period, lowering near-term consumption of manganese alloys.

Safeguards Shift Trade Flows While CBAM Alters Alloy Choices

The EU introduced safeguards on silico-manganese, ferro-manganese, ferro-silicon and silico-magnesium in November to protect European alloy producers from lower-cost third-country imports.

Silico-manganese has attracted more import activity than some other alloys. The quota for “other countries” was exhausted in both the second and third periods, while the current 18,956t quota was filled by 21 May.

Norway’s quota has also been closely watched. Its second-period quota was exhausted in April, but the third-period quota still had a large remaining balance as of 22 May.

Zambian material also remains available within quota. This gives importers some alternative supply routes, even as India and other-country quotas fill quickly.

Ferro-silicon and ferro-manganese quotas have not been filled. This shows that the safeguard impact is uneven across the ferro-alloy market.

CBAM is also changing trading behaviour. Silico-manganese is not subject to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, while high-carbon ferro-manganese carries additional administrative and compliance burdens.

That has made some traders more comfortable importing silico-manganese than ferro-manganese. Even when prices are close, lower bureaucracy can make silico-manganese more attractive from a trading perspective.

Ferro-manganese prices are receiving some support from CBAM-related caution, but liquidity and demand appear stronger in silico-manganese. This could keep trade flows focused on silico-manganese until buyers’ inventories fall.

The main market impact may therefore arrive in autumn. By then, end-user stocks could be lower, summer maintenance will have passed and importers may face tighter replacement costs under the safeguard regime.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU safeguard system is already raising import costs, but weak steel demand is preventing a sharp silico-manganese rally. The real test will come after summer, when mills return and buyers need to replace stocks under a more expensive import structure.

India Manganese Alloy Prices Fall as Supply Glut Meets Weak Demand

Manganese alloy

India manganese alloy prices declined as muted demand, excess supply and cautious buying weighed on the bulk alloys market. Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese both moved lower, while ferro-chrome and ferro-silicon prices remained broadly stable.

India manganese alloy prices are under pressure from a widening mismatch between production and consumption. Weak stainless steel demand, limited export bookings and inventory overhangs have reduced market momentum.

India manganese alloy prices are also being affected by liquidity pressure among producers. Some suppliers lowered offers toward the end of the month to generate cash flow, adding further downside pressure.

The broader market remains uneven. Ferro-chrome is supported by long-term export commitments, while ferro-silicon is supported by limited availability. Manganese alloys, however, face weaker domestic and overseas demand.

Ferro-Manganese and Silico-Manganese Weaken on Inventory Pressure

Ferro-manganese prices fell as domestic demand remained insufficient to absorb available supply. The 70% ferro-manganese price declined to Rs83,000-85,000/t ex-works, while 75% material fell to Rs90,000-92,000/t.

Higher manganese ore costs continue to provide some support. This is why ferro-manganese prices are expected to remain above silico-manganese, despite weak buying and limited spot activity.

However, the domestic market is still struggling with excess supply. Producers are competing for limited orders, and some have cut prices to maintain liquidity.

Silico-manganese prices also moved lower. Indian 60% silico-manganese fell to Rs82,500-83,500/t ex-works, with market activity described as extremely limited.

Price recovery will be difficult until inventories are absorbed. Buyers remain cautious and are delaying purchases because they expect further corrections.

Export prices also weakened. The 60% silico-manganese export price fell to $890-900/t fob east coast, while 65% material declined to $960-980/t fob.

Overseas buying slowed as higher offer levels discouraged bookings. Middle East enquiries halted because of geopolitical tensions, while European demand weakened under quota restrictions.

CBAM certification is adding another pressure point. European buyers are increasingly demanding carbon documentation for high-carbon manganese alloys, raising compliance costs and complicating Indian export sales.

Ferro-Chrome and Ferro-Silicon Hold Steady Despite Weak Sentiment

Ferro-chrome prices remained stable even as downstream demand stayed subdued. High-carbon 60% ferro-chrome held at Rs117,000-119,000/t ex-works.

Domestic producers continued fulfilling long-term export commitments. This helped keep the market steady despite weaker bids in OMC’s chrome ore auction.

The fall in auction bids reflected softer consumer demand. However, ferro-chrome did not face the same immediate inventory and liquidity pressure seen in manganese alloys.

Ferro-silicon prices also held steady. The 70% ferro-silicon price remained at Rs108,000-110,000/t ex-works, supported by limited availability and firm demand.

The difference between ferro-silicon and manganese alloys shows how supply balance is driving price direction. Ferro-silicon has tighter availability, while manganese alloys face surplus material and weaker offtake.

For Indian bulk alloys, export conditions remain critical. Domestic demand alone may not be enough to absorb production if overseas buying stays weak.

The European market will also become more difficult for high-carbon alloys. CBAM compliance, quota restrictions and weak steel consumption could keep Indian exporters under pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s manganese alloy market is not facing a raw material problem alone; it is facing a demand absorption problem. Until excess inventories clear and export demand improves, ore cost support will only slow the decline rather than reverse it.

NBVL Ferro-Silicon Output Surges 480% on Strong Export Demand

NBVL

NBVL ferro-silicon output achieved remarkable growth with production reaching 13,490 tonnes in FY2025, compared to just 2,380 tonnes the previous year. The Indian ferro-alloy producer's NBVL ferro-silicon production increase of nearly six times reflects strong international orders, particularly from the US market, amid challenging domestic conditions and oversupply pressures.

Strategic Furnace Conversion Drives Production Expansion

NBVL ferro-silicon production capacity expanded through strategic infrastructure investments beginning in January 2024. The company launched its first ferro-silicon furnace with 11,000 tonnes annual capacity, followed by a second furnace in December 2024. However, the second furnace switched back to silico-manganese production on May 1, 2025, following the US imposition of additional 10% tariffs on ferro-silicon imports.

Meanwhile, the furnace conversion strategy impacted silico-manganese production at NBVL's Paloncha operations. Silico-manganese output decreased 4.4% to 25,617 tonnes in Q4 FY2025 as two furnaces were temporarily converted to ferro-silicon production. Total silico-manganese production fell slightly to just under 104,200 tonnes for the full financial year.

Export Focus Delivers Revenue Growth Despite Market Challenges

However, NBVL's export-oriented strategy proved successful despite domestic market headwinds and international trade tensions. Export sales constituted 40% of total sales during FY2025, with the majority of ferro-silicon shipments destined for US markets. Combined silico-manganese and ferro-silicon sales reached 42,327 tonnes in Q4, significantly higher than 20,068 tonnes in the previous quarter.

Therefore, the company's strategic pivot toward international markets generated improved revenue and profitability metrics. NBVL management indicated expectations for better performance in FY2026 while targeting Japanese markets rather than domestic or other international destinations. This geographic diversification strategy aims to reduce dependence on tariff-affected US ferro-silicon trade.

Market Conditions Shape Future Investment Strategy

Furthermore, NBVL management expressed caution about domestic expansion plans citing existing oversupply conditions in India's ferro-alloy market. The company indicated it would consider expansion only after securing dedicated raw material sources to ensure competitive cost structures. This conservative approach reflects broader industry challenges including volatile raw material prices and intense competition.

As a result, the US tariff implementation on ferro-silicon products demonstrates how trade policies directly influence production decisions and market strategies. NBVL's quick response in switching the second furnace back to silico-manganese production illustrates operational flexibility in navigating changing trade conditions while maintaining export competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

NBVL's dramatic ferro-silicon output expansion exemplifies how Indian ferro-alloy producers leverage export opportunities to offset domestic market weakness, though trade policy changes require rapid operational adjustments. The company's strategic furnace switching capabilities demonstrate the importance of production flexibility in navigating volatile international trade conditions that increasingly characterize global ferro-alloy markets.

US Bulk Alloy Imports Decline in 4Q 2024 Amid Global Supply Challenges

Silico-Manganese

Reduced shipments of ferro-alloys contribute to a 13% drop in bulk alloy imports.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, US imports of bulk alloys, including high-carbon ferro-chrome, silico-manganese, high-carbon ferro-manganese, and ferro-silicon, saw a notable decline. According to data from the US Commerce Department, total shipments dropped by 13% year-over-year, reaching 227,614 metric tonnes. This decrease reflects various challenges in global supply chains, including weather-related disruptions and production constraints in key export countries.

Surge in High-Carbon Ferro-Chrome Imports

Despite the overall decline, some specific alloys experienced significant shifts. High-carbon ferro-chrome shipments from Albania and Brazil saw substantial increases in the quarter. From just 25 tonnes last year, Albania's shipments surged to 14,948 tonnes, while Brazil's exports grew from zero to 8,997 tonnes. These gains helped partially offset the drops seen from other regions.

India’s Role in Silico-Manganese Imports

India played a critical role in boosting silico-manganese imports, with shipments to the US increasing by 15%, reaching 11,160 tonnes in the quarter. This rise in Indian exports helped balance declines from major suppliers like Georgia, Mexico, Australia, and South Africa. India's contribution to the overall import total for silico-manganese is a key development for the US alloy market.

Weather and Trade Issues Impact Other Imports

The drop in high-carbon ferro-manganese imports was particularly significant, falling by 45% due to weather-related events and production challenges in Malaysia and Australia. Additionally, the absence of Russian ferro-silicon from the US market further contributed to the year-over-year decline. The ongoing trade case targeting imports from Malaysia and Brazil also led to sharp decreases, with shipments from Malaysia dropping to zero and those from Brazil falling to 3,117 tonnes, down from 7,400 tonnes the previous year.

Full-Year Bulk Alloy Imports See Growth

Looking at the full year, total bulk alloy imports increased by 14% to 1.1 million tonnes, driven primarily by higher imports of high-carbon ferro-chrome and silico-manganese. Despite the quarterly decline, 2024 showed overall growth in bulk alloy imports compared to the previous year.

Moil Manganese Ore Prices Rise Sharply as Indian Supply Tightens

Moil

Moil manganese ore prices rose sharply for April as tight domestic availability and restricted imports pushed Indian buyers into a firmer market. State-owned Manganese Ore India increased prices across ferro-grade, silico-grade and fines material, reflecting stronger supply pressure across the domestic manganese chain.

Moil manganese ore prices for ferro-grade material with manganese content of 44% and above increased by 15% from March. Material below 44% manganese rose even more sharply, with prices up 17.5% for April.

Moil manganese ore prices also increased for 25% and 30% silico-grade ore and fines, both rising by 17.5% from March. The broad-based increase shows that tightness is affecting multiple ore grades rather than only high-grade ferro-alloy feedstock.

Domestic Ore Tightness Supports Ferro-Alloy Feedstock Prices

India manganese ore supply has become tighter as local availability remains constrained and imports face pressure from geopolitical disruptions. This has strengthened Moil’s pricing power at a time when ferro-alloy producers need reliable manganese feedstock.

Ferro-grade manganese ore is essential for ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are key inputs in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, toughness and deoxidation performance.

The price increase is therefore important for Indian steel and alloy producers. Higher manganese ore costs can feed into ferro-alloy margins and eventually influence steelmaking input costs if producers cannot fully absorb the increase.

Moil Output Rose but Sales Stayed Largely Stable

Moil produced around 1.9mn t of manganese ore during the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year, up 5.6% from the previous year. Sales volumes remained broadly stable at 1.58mn t over the same period.

The company produced around 164,000t and sold around 202,000t in March, despite supply chain constraints. This suggests that Moil maintained shipments, but broader market availability remained tight enough to support a strong April price increase.

For the Indian manganese market, the key issue is whether import constraints ease or domestic production can respond quickly. If supply remains tight, ferro-alloy producers may face continued cost pressure into the next pricing cycle.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moil’s April price increase shows how quickly manganese ore pricing can react when domestic supply and import flows tighten together. For India’s steel value chain, manganese security is becoming more important as ferro-alloy costs remain exposed to both local mining output and global logistics risk.

Georgian Manganese Halts Silico-Manganese Production Amid Market Decline and Protests

Georgian Manganese

Georgian Manganese, a leading producer of silico-manganese based in Georgia, has announced a suspension of its silico-manganese production for four months. This decision follows a prolonged decline in global demand for ferro-alloys and the resulting fall in prices. The suspension, which began on October 2, will continue through March 1, 2024, at the company's processing plant in Zestafoni, Georgia. The company confirmed the shutdown through a post on social media, citing market conditions and ongoing operational challenges.

Market Conditions and Operational Challenges

Georgian Manganese has faced a steady downturn in the silico-manganese market for the past two years, with prices continuing to soften. As a result, the company ceased sales to its primary market, the United States, in September. The market slump, coupled with protests at the company’s mining operations in Chiatura, Georgia, has made it increasingly difficult to maintain production levels.

Protests at the Chiatura mine, which accounts for a significant portion of Georgian Manganese's manganese ore supply, have worsened since March. Local picketing activities have caused a 70% decrease in production at the mine, further compounding supply issues. As a result, Chiatura Management, the contractor responsible for the mine, has been unable to ensure a consistent feedstock supply to the Zestafoni plant, prompting the decision to halt production.

Despite these setbacks, Georgian Manganese remains hopeful that market conditions will improve and the company can resume operations ahead of schedule. A crisis management plan is being developed to address the ongoing issues at the mine, with an emphasis on stabilizing the supply of manganese ore and improving overall operational efficiency.

The Importance of Georgian Manganese in the US Market

Historically, Georgia has been a significant supplier of silico-manganese to the United States. In the period from 2019 to 2023, Georgia accounted for 24% of the US’s silico-manganese imports, amounting to 415,182 metric tonnes. This year, the country has already shipped 60,253 tonnes of the 254,771 tonnes of silico-manganese imported by the US up until the end of August.

Georgian Manganese is owned by Florida-based Georgian American Alloys, which also owns Feldman Trading. Through this subsidiary, Georgian American Alloys markets its products in the US. The company also owns CC Metals and Alloys, previously a ferro-silicon producer in Kentucky, and Feldman Production, which manufactures silico-manganese and high-carbon ferro-manganese in West Virginia.

Moil Manganese Ore Prices Fall as Indian Steel Demand Weakens

Moil, Manganese Ore

Moil manganese ore prices have been cut by 4% for May as weak downstream steel demand and sluggish export bookings pressure India’s manganese market. The state-owned producer reduced prices across ferro-grade ore, silico-grade ore and fines.

Moil manganese ore prices for ferro-grade material with manganese content of 44% and above, as well as below-44% material, were lowered by 4% from April levels. The cut follows a sharp 17.5% increase in April for ore below 44% manganese content.

Moil manganese ore prices for 25% and 30% silico-grade ore and fines were also reduced by 4% for May. The move reflects a softer market environment in which domestic buyers are cautious and export opportunities remain limited.

The price cut highlights a wider imbalance in India’s manganese ore chain. Lower export demand has pushed more material into the domestic market, creating surplus supply across major trading hubs.

Weak Steel Demand Pressures Ferro-Grade Ore

Ferro-grade manganese ore demand remains tied closely to steel and ferro-alloy production. When steel demand weakens, alloy producers reduce feedstock buying and ore prices come under pressure.

India’s downstream steel market has been sluggish, limiting demand for manganese alloys and the ore used to produce them. This has made buyers more cautious about restocking, especially after the April price increase.

The 4% reduction is therefore a market-clearing move. Moil is adjusting prices to reflect weaker consumer appetite and rising domestic availability.

Export weakness has added further pressure. Reduced overseas bookings mean more ore is staying inside India, increasing competition among suppliers and traders.

This domestic oversupply is especially important for ferro-grade ore. Alloy producers can delay purchases when they expect further weakness, which slows market activity and reinforces downward pressure.

Higher Output Adds to Domestic Supply Overhang

Moil’s production has continued to rise despite weaker demand. The company produced around 164,000t of manganese ore in March 2026, up from 159,000t a year earlier.

Full-year output for April 2025-March 2026 reached 1.9mn t, compared with 1.8mn t in the previous fiscal year. This higher supply has entered a market already facing softer domestic and export demand.

The result is a supply overhang across key trading hubs. Even if production growth is modest, weaker buying can quickly create surplus conditions in the manganese ore market.

For alloy producers, lower ore prices may ease cost pressure. But the benefit depends on whether ferro-manganese and silico-manganese demand recovers enough to support production margins.

For Moil, the challenge is balancing output growth with market absorption. Higher production supports volume targets, but weak demand forces price adjustments when inventories rise.

The May price cut therefore sends a clear signal. India’s manganese ore market needs stronger steel and alloy demand before pricing power can return.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moil’s price cut shows that India’s manganese market is being driven by demand weakness, not raw material scarcity. Until steel and export bookings improve, higher mine output will continue to weigh on ore pricing.

Ukraine Reboots Silico-Manganese Exports in Q2 2024

Resumption After Halt

Ukraine resumed its silico-manganese exports in the second quarter of 2024, following a significant halt in the first quarter due to the closure of the Ukrainian ferro-alloy supply chain caused by ongoing conflict. This halt at the end of 2023 led to zero exports during the initial months of 2024.

Gradual Increase in Export Volumes

According to Ukrainian export data, the country’s silico-manganese exports surged from zero in Q1 to 22,081 tons in Q2. The rise was gradual, with April exports at 206 tons, May at 4,877 tons, and June seeing a substantial increase to 16,998 tons. Despite this rebound, exports remain significantly lower compared to previous operational levels, with Q2 exports down 83% year-on-year.

Challenges Ahead

Ukraine’s ferro-alloy industry, traditionally a significant European producer, is dominated by five major companies, including two manganese ore producers and three ferro-alloy plants. By the end of 2023, all five had ceased operations, leading to a sharp drop in exports. The Nikopol Ferro-alloy Plant and Zaporizhzhia Ferro-alloy Plant, part of the Privat Group, have capacities of 1.2 million tons per year and 400,000 tons per year, respectively. Although exports are resuming, traders do not expect a significant short-term impact on silico-manganese prices due to the limited quantities involved. The industry will continue to face pressure from high energy costs and a shortage of skilled labor due to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

EU Launches Safeguard Investigation into Manganese, Silicon Alloys Imports

The European Commission

The European Commission has initiated a safeguard investigation into the import of manganese and silicon-based alloys and silicon metal, following concerns about the erosion of market share for EU producers. The probe, launched on December 19, focuses on a range of materials, including silicon metal, ferro-manganese, ferro-silicon, ferro-silico-manganese, ferro-silico-magnesium, and calcium-silicon.

The investigation, driven by industry body Euroalliages and certain member states, comes in response to a surge in global production capacity and rising imports, particularly from China, which has significantly impacted EU producers. Euroalliages Secretary-General Bob Lambrechts highlighted that China's excess production capacity could meet the EU’s demand multiple times over, raising alarm over increasing import shares.

Global spare production capacity for these materials exceeds 21 million tons per year, with another 13 million tons per year expected to be added. Meanwhile, declining demand in the EU’s steel and aluminium industries leaves the region unable to absorb these volumes.

Timeline and Possible Measures

The commission will accept comments, evidence, and information from stakeholders within 21 days of the announcement. If safeguard measures are deemed necessary, they could be implemented within nine months, with an optional two-month extension for exceptional circumstances.

In cases of urgent harm, the commission may impose provisional measures for up to 200 days while continuing its analysis. These actions are critical for stabilizing the market and protecting EU producers from potential dumping and unsustainable competition.

Strategic Materials and Trade Policies

Euroalliages emphasized the strategic importance of manganese, silicon alloys, and related materials to the EU’s industrial base. Lambrechts noted, “Times have changed, and you cannot primarily rely on countries that you cannot be sure will continue to supply.”

The investigation is part of a broader effort to strengthen the EU’s industrial value chain against external pressures and ensure long-term competitiveness. Lambrechts also underscored that this effort goes beyond traditional anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures, signaling a more comprehensive approach to trade policy.

The Risk of Import Surges

The commission warned of potential imminent increases in imports due to trade protectionism measures in external countries, which could divert more volumes to the EU. Addressing these risks is crucial to preserving the EU’s industrial capacity and reducing reliance on unstable supply chains.

Bulk Alloy Shipments to U.S. Surge in Second Quarter

Imports of bulk alloys to the United States surged in the second quarter, driven by weakened demand in China and increasing regulatory pressures domestically. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department, consolidated bulk alloy shipments—comprising high carbon ferro-chrome, silico-manganese, ferro-silicon, and high carbon ferro-manganese—rose by 47% to 345,970 metric tonnes compared to the same period last year.

The volume of ferro-chrome with over 4% carbon content saw a significant increase, with shipments from South Africa rising fivefold to 100,520 tonnes. However, this figure may be inflated due to the potential inclusion of charge chrome, sources cautioned.

Silico-manganese imports grew across the board, with South Africa leading the way at 25,868 tonnes, followed by Australia with 22,015 tonnes, and Georgia with 17,673 tonnes. In May and June, a federal probe and the possibility of retroactive tariffs sparked a rush in ferro-silicon imports, with shipments from Brazil and Malaysia more than doubling to 14,142 tonnes and 13,658 tonnes, respectively.

Meanwhile, increased shipments of high carbon ferro-manganese from Australia and South Africa partially offset a 52% drop in shipments from Malaysia, which totaled 15,645 tonnes.

India's Manganese Alloy Imports Surge, Prompting EU Trade Protection Measures

Manganese Alloy

Rising Indian Imports Disrupt European Manganese Market

India's manganese alloy exports to Europe have surged, reshaping market dynamics and triggering a safeguard investigation by the European Commission. In January-November 2020, India accounted for only 3% of EU ferro-manganese imports, but by 2024, this share skyrocketed to 28%, totaling 104,376 metric tons.

The silico-manganese market also saw a dramatic shift. India’s share of EU silico-manganese imports grew from 10% in 2020 to 29% in 2024, reaching 164,722 metric tons. Other countries, including Georgia and Zambia, also expanded their presence, filling gaps left by Ukraine’s production collapse due to conflict with Russia.

European Producers Struggle to Compete

European manganese alloy producers have faced declining exports amid India's rising market share. France, Slovakia, and Spain saw major drops in silico-manganese exports between 2020 and 2024. France’s exports fell 64%, while Slovakia and Spain recorded declines of 35% and 11%, respectively.

Similarly, EU ferro-manganese exports have weakened. France's shipments fell 28%, while Slovakia’s exports dropped 47%. These declines stem not only from rising Indian competition but also from weaker demand in the EU stainless steel industry.

EU Commission Launches Safeguard Investigation

To protect European manganese and silicon-alloy producers, the European Commission initiated a safeguard investigation on December 19, 2024. Possible outcomes include higher customs duties or import quotas.

European buyers have increased their purchases of Indian manganese alloys in anticipation of potential restrictions, driving Indian manganese alloy prices higher in January. Meanwhile, Norwegian producers, who supply 40% of ferro-manganese and 35% of silico-manganese to Europe, are expected to receive exemptions from trade measures.

Liberty Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Sale Aims to Preserve Australia’s Alloy Capacity

Liberty

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter assets in Tasmania are set to be sold to a consortium led by investment firm Adroit Capital, giving Australia’s only manganese alloy producer a potential path out of administration. The 290,000 t/yr smelter is a strategic asset for steelmaking, defence and construction supply chains.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter operations have been under pressure since the site was shut in May 2025 by its former owner, GFG Alliance, because of feedstock shortages and maintenance requirements. The smelter produces ferro-manganese and silico-manganese, both essential alloying materials for steel production.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter continuity is important because Australia has limited domestic ferro-alloy capacity. Losing the site permanently would increase dependence on imported manganese alloys for steelmakers and industrial users.

The Australian federal and Tasmanian state governments have now committed A$5mn to cover staff salaries until early August while administrator Ernst & Young finalises the sale with Adroit. That follows A$4.6mn in earlier support during April-May, bringing total recent government support to A$9.6mn.

Government Support Buys Time for a Strategic Smelter

The government funding gives the administrator more time to complete the transaction while preserving workforce continuity. This is critical because skilled labour, furnace knowledge and site readiness can be difficult to rebuild after a prolonged shutdown.

Tasmania’s government had already tried to support a restart under GFG. It provided a A$20mn bridging loan after the smelter was suspended in May 2025, helping operations resume in August.

However, GFG defaulted on that loan in January 2026, leading to the smelter entering administration. The sale process now shifts responsibility to a new investor group that must address the site’s core operating problems.

The key challenge remains feedstock security. Manganese alloy smelting depends on reliable ore supply, power costs, furnace availability and customer demand from steelmakers.

If Adroit can secure ore and stabilise operations, the smelter could again support domestic steel supply chains. If not, the asset risks remaining a strategic facility without a sustainable operating model.

Manganese Alloy Security Matters for Steelmaking

Manganese alloys are essential in steelmaking because they improve strength, toughness and deoxidation performance. Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are widely used across construction steel, infrastructure, machinery and defence-related steel applications.

Australia’s reliance on a single domestic manganese alloy producer makes Liberty Bell Bay more important than its nameplate capacity alone suggests. The smelter represents industrial optionality in a market where supply security is becoming more politically relevant.

The sale also comes as global ferro-alloy markets face volatility from weak steel demand, feedstock constraints and trade measures. Domestic production can reduce exposure to import disruptions, but only if operating costs remain competitive.

For Tasmania, the site also carries regional employment and industrial policy importance. Keeping the workforce funded through the sale process reduces the risk of losing technical capability before a new owner takes control.

The Adroit-led consortium will need more than financial interest. It must prove that the smelter can operate with stable raw material supply, disciplined maintenance and a credible sales strategy.

The broader lesson is clear. Strategic metals capacity cannot survive on government support alone. It needs a bankable operating model that links feedstock, power, customers and long-term demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Liberty Bell Bay sale is a test of whether Australia can preserve critical ferro-alloy capacity before it disappears. Manganese alloy supply may not attract the same attention as lithium or rare earths, but steelmaking security depends on assets like this.

Elkem Silicon Products Weaken as Low Ferro-Silicon Prices Hit Earnings

Elkem Silicon

Elkem silicon products came under pressure in 2025 as weak demand and low prices for silicon and ferro-silicon reduced group earnings despite higher sales volumes. The Norwegian metals group reported EBITDA of Nkr3.44 billion, or about $360 million, down 18% from the previous year.

Elkem silicon products remained a central part of the business, contributing 42% of group sales. Sales volumes in the division rose 3% to 434,000 tonnes, but weaker pricing outweighed the benefit of higher volumes.

The division’s EBITDA fell 47% to Nkr1.52 billion. This shows how exposed silicon producers remain to oversupply, soft industrial demand, and trade measures that are reshaping global alloy flows.

Silicon and Carbon Divisions Reflect Metallurgical Market Weakness

Elkem silicon products faced difficult conditions across silicon metal, ferro-silicon, and foundry alloy markets. The company described the environment as marked by weak demand and low sales prices, reflecting a prolonged downturn in metallurgical value chains.

The carbon solutions division also weakened. The unit, which supplies specialty carbon products to metallurgical smelting and primary aluminium producers, recorded sales of 261,000 tonnes, down 5% from 2024.

Carbon solutions EBITDA declined 20% to Nkr908 million. Elkem linked the decline to difficult conditions in metallurgical industries, where customers cut production and reduced demand for carbon inputs.

Silicones Recovery Contrasts With Trade Pressure on Alloys

Elkem’s silicones division performed strongly despite weakness in its metallurgical units. Silicones sales volumes rose 14% to 443,000 tonnes, while EBITDA more than doubled to Nkr1.10 billion after expansion projects in China and France were completed.

The stronger silicones result comes as Elkem reshapes its portfolio. The company launched a strategic review of the division last year and recently agreed to sell a majority stake to China-based Bluestar.

Trade fragmentation remains a major issue for Elkem. The company cited EU safeguard measures on ferro-silicon, ferro-manganese, and silico-manganese imports from countries including Norway and Iceland, along with US countervailing duties on Norwegian silicon metal. These measures add complexity to sales channels, pricing, and long-term competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Elkem’s results show that higher volumes cannot protect silicon producers when prices and trade flows turn against them. The company’s restructuring and silicones sale suggest a sharper focus on surviving a fragmented, low-margin alloy market.

EU GOES Safeguard Investigation Targets Electrical Steel Import Pressure

GOES

EU GOES safeguard investigation activity has moved into focus as Brussels examines imports of grain-oriented electrical steel and steel laminations and cores. The probe reflects growing concern that low-priced imports are undermining Europe’s electrical steel production base.

The EU GOES safeguard investigation comes as Thyssenkrupp prepares to fully close its Gelsenkirchen and Isbergues sites between June and September. The company had already been operating the sites at only 50% capacity since January because of intense import pressure.

The investigation matters because grain-oriented electrical steel is essential for transformers, grid equipment, renewable power infrastructure, and electrification. If Europe loses more domestic GOES capacity, its energy transition supply chain becomes more exposed to foreign steel and component suppliers.

Thyssenkrupp Closures Raise Industrial Security Concerns

Thyssenkrupp’s planned closures put around 1,200 jobs at risk and highlight the pressure on European electrical steel producers. The company’s warning of a “ruinous flood of imports” shows how trade flows are affecting not only steel margins, but also strategic industrial capacity.

The EU already applies anti-dumping measures on GOES imports from China, Russia, the US, Japan, and South Korea when prices fall below the minimum import price. These measures can trigger duties of 21.5-39%.

However, steel laminations and cores are not currently covered by anti-dumping duties. That gap matters because SLC products sit closer to downstream transformer and electrical equipment manufacturing, where import competition can affect both steelmakers and component suppliers.

Safeguard Probe Could Support Ferro-Silicon Demand

The EU GOES safeguard investigation must be concluded by December, with a possible extension to February 2027. The probe covers flat-rolled GOES and electrical laminations and cores under the relevant EU customs classifications.

The investigation follows the European Commission’s earlier safeguard measures on ferro-silicon, silico-manganese, and ferro-manganese. This sequence suggests Brussels is becoming more willing to intervene where import pressure threatens strategic metals and alloy value chains.

GOES production depends on high-purity ferro-silicon to deliver the magnetic properties required for transformer-grade electrical steel. Any safeguard measure that supports European GOES production could also improve demand conditions for EU ferro-silicon producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s GOES probe is not only a steel trade case. It is a test of whether the EU can protect the materials base behind transformers, grids, electrification, and energy security before more capacity exits the region.

China’s HBIS Raises October Manganese Alloy Tender Prices Amid Rising Steel Demand and Production Costs

HBIS

Hebei Iron and Steel (HBIS), one of China’s largest state-owned steel producers, has increased its October tender prices for manganese alloys, responding to higher steel output and rising production costs. The price hike reflects intensified demand for steel and growing costs of alloy feedstock.

HBIS’s initial October tender price for 12,000 tonnes of silico-manganese (65/17 grade) is set at 6,200 yuan per tonne (approximately $871/t) for delivery and acceptance bill payment, marking a 220 yuan/t increase from September. HBIS has also raised its purchase volume by 1,500 tonnes compared to the previous month. Industry negotiations with long-term alloy suppliers are ongoing.

Several alloy producers anticipate further price increases, projecting the silico-manganese bulk alloy price could reach 6,300 yuan/t as production costs have surged to 6,100-6,200 yuan/t due to more expensive ore feedstock.

Additionally, HBIS raised its October tender price for high-carbon ferro-manganese (65% grade) by 200 yuan/t to 5,900 yuan/t, with a purchase volume of 7,297 tonnes, up by 147 tonnes from September.

The surge in steel prices and demand—fueled by seaborne buyers—has led many mills to boost production since September, further supporting an uptrend in alloy feedstock prices. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) show that crude steel output from member mills rose by 1.3% in late September, averaging 2.01 million tonnes per day between 21-30 September. CISA’s data encompasses over 100 of China’s largest steel mills.

Steel prices soared at the end of September, boosted by the Chinese government’s economic stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a lowered reserve requirement ratio for banks. China’s steel exports also climbed significantly, rising 26% year-on-year to 10.15 million tonnes in September, driven by strong overseas demand and favorable export prices.

Recent assessments show the 65/17 silico-manganese alloy grade priced higher by 200 yuan/t, reaching 5,800-5,900 yuan/t ex-works as of mid-October. Despite spot deals at these elevated prices, some alloy producers offered between 6,000-6,200 yuan/t ex-works. Meanwhile, the high-carbon ferro-manganese 65% grade held steady at 6,500-6,700 yuan/t ex-works, though many buyers were reluctant to engage in spot purchases at these levels.

China Expands Copper and Aluminium Duty Exemptions for 2025

Recycled Copper

In a bid to promote sustainable growth, China has announced expanded import duty exemptions on recycled copper and aluminium feedstocks for 2025. This change is part of the country’s broader strategy to bolster green and low-carbon development in its metal industries. The move reflects China’s ongoing efforts to ease restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium imports, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets.

Expansion of Duty Exemptions

Under the new policy, China will expand the HS code 74040000 to include “recycled copper and alloy feedstock” for 2025, up from just "recycled brass copper feedstock" and "recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. Similarly, the HS code 76020000 will also broaden to cover “recycled aluminium and alloy feedstock” from the previous scope of "recycled cast aluminum alloy feedstock" in 2024. The import duties for both categories will remain at zero for 2025, continuing the exemptions in place for 2024.

This expansion is intended to enhance the country’s circular economy and support the shift toward greener practices in the recycling and processing of metals. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the adjustments will help promote low-carbon development, driving demand for sustainable production methods.

The move follows an increase in China’s copper scrap imports, which saw a 14% rise from January to November in 2024 compared to the previous year, signaling a positive trend for the country's metal recycling sector.

Continued Duties on Other Base Metals

While China is easing import duties on certain recycled metals, the government has decided to keep export duties on various base metals, minor metals, ferro-alloys, and rare earths in place for 2025. This includes maintaining the 40% export duty on ferro-chrome, a 25% duty on silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, and a 20% export duty on ferro-manganese. These duties align with China’s broader objective of controlling the export of energy-intensive and pollution-heavy products.

The country will also continue with export duties on a variety of concentrates, such as lead, zinc, tantalum, and niobium, as well as a 20% duty on tin, tungsten, and antimony concentrates, which are less frequently exported due to China’s limited domestic resources of these metals. Additionally, China will maintain duties on several metals, including a 5-15% export duty on copper, nickel, and zinc alloys and products.

China's new policy also includes a zero import duty on spodumene for 2025, marking another significant move in its strategic approach to securing key raw materials for its growing battery and electronics industries.

India's Smiore to Boost Manganese Ore Production in Karnataka

India's Smiore

India's Sandur Manganese and Iron Ore (Smiore) has received environmental clearance to increase its manganese ore production capacity in Bellary, Karnataka. The company's plan, which has been approved by both the Environment Ministry and the Karnataka State Pollution Control Board (KSPCB), will raise its manganese ore output from 430,000 tonnes per year to 550,000 tonnes per year under the Air and Water Act.

This expansion is expected to lead to increased production of ferro-manganese and silico-manganese, crucial alloys in steel manufacturing. However, the company has not yet specified a timeline for completing this project.

Expanding Production Amid Growing Demand

Smiore operates two mines with reserves estimated at 17 million tonnes of manganese ore and 117 million tonnes of iron ore. In the April-June quarter, the company sold 9,396 tonnes of ferro-alloy, marking a 35% year-on-year increase. This production boost positions Smiore to meet the rising demand for ferro-alloys in India and globally.

SMEL Wagon Production Plan Marks Downstream Shift for Indian Long Steel

SMEL

SMEL wagon production will begin in September as Shyam Metalics and Energy prepares to commission a greenfield railway wagon manufacturing plant at Kharagpur, West Bengal. The move marks the Indian integrated steelmaker’s first entry into rolling stock and a rare downstream step by an Indian long steel producer.

SMEL wagon production is strategically important because it connects steelmaking more directly with railway infrastructure, logistics equipment and government-backed transport demand. The project gives the company a route to capture more value beyond commodity steel products.

SMEL wagon production will be developed through Ramsarup Industries, a step-down subsidiary in which Shyam Metalics holds 60% and Super Smelters owns 40%. The plant will initially produce 2,400 wagons per year under phase one, with a second phase planned to add the same capacity.

The facility will manufacture flat, open, box, hopper-covered, tank and specialised wagons. Capital expenditure is budgeted at 2bn rupees, with Rs220mn spent by March 2026.

Railway Wagons Deepen SMEL’s Steel Value Chain

The wagon project gives SMEL a higher-value outlet for steel products at a time when Indian infrastructure and freight transport demand remain important growth channels. Railway wagons require steel, fabrication capability, engineering control and customer qualification, making the business more complex than ordinary long steel sales.

The move also gives SMEL exposure to transport equipment manufacturing. This can improve margins if the company integrates steel supply, fabrication and finished wagon production effectively.

Ramsarup’s industrial platform is also expanding upstream and downstream. Phase one of its blast furnace, sinter and oxygen units has already been commissioned.

Planned phase two additions include an 85,000 t/yr steel wire-drawing line, a 100,000 t/yr blast furnace, 40MW of captive power and an 800,000 t/yr special bar quality mill.

The special bar quality mill is particularly relevant. SBQ products serve automotive, engineering, machinery, fasteners, rail and industrial components, giving SMEL another path toward higher-specification steel markets.

This strategy suggests that SMEL is not only adding capacity. It is trying to move into more engineered and application-specific products where customer relationships, product quality and downstream integration carry greater value.

Stainless and Aluminium Foil Strengthen Higher-Margin Portfolio

SMEL is also expanding in stainless steel and aluminium foil, giving the group a broader non-carbon steel platform. These segments provide exposure to higher-value materials used in consumer goods, industrial equipment, packaging and precision applications.

At Sambalpur in Odisha, SMEL plans to increase stainless steel capacity from 0.5mn t/yr to 0.6mn t/yr. The expansion will include a cold-rolling mill, precision cold-rolling mill, hot-rolling annealing and pickling line, and bright annealing line.

All units are targeted for commissioning by March 2029 at a cost of Rs18bn. The investment will help SMEL move further into value-added stainless products rather than relying only on melting or basic output.

Stainless steel delivered the strongest performance among SMEL’s non-carbon segments in the 2026 financial year. Realisations rose by 6.7% to Rs140,443/t, while volumes increased by 11.5% to 94,102t.

Aluminium foil achieved the highest per-tonne realisation in SMEL’s portfolio. Realisations rose by 10.4% to Rs379,805/t, while volumes were broadly flat at 21,620t because of capacity constraints ahead of expansion.

Speciality alloys were weaker. Full-year realisations slipped by 2.2% to Rs93,837/t despite volumes rising by 11.9% to 223,494t, reflecting softer ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese and silico-manganese markets through much of the year.

The overall direction is clear. SMEL is building a more diversified materials platform across railway wagons, stainless steel, aluminium foil, specialty alloys, wire drawing and SBQ products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s wagon project shows how Indian steelmakers are moving downstream to protect margins and capture infrastructure-linked demand. The real opportunity lies in combining steel production with engineered products, stainless processing and high-realisation aluminium foil.

SMEL Wagon Production Plan Marks Downstream Shift for Indian Long Steel

SMEL

SMEL wagon production will begin in September as Shyam Metalics and Energy prepares to commission a greenfield railway wagon manufacturing plant at Kharagpur, West Bengal. The move marks the Indian integrated steelmaker’s first entry into rolling stock and a rare downstream step by an Indian long steel producer.

SMEL wagon production is strategically important because it connects steelmaking more directly with railway infrastructure, logistics equipment and government-backed transport demand. The project gives the company a route to capture more value beyond commodity steel products.

SMEL wagon production will be developed through Ramsarup Industries, a step-down subsidiary in which Shyam Metalics holds 60% and Super Smelters owns 40%. The plant will initially produce 2,400 wagons per year under phase one, with a second phase planned to add the same capacity.

The facility will manufacture flat, open, box, hopper-covered, tank and specialised wagons. Capital expenditure is budgeted at 2bn rupees, with Rs220mn spent by March 2026.

Railway Wagons Deepen SMEL’s Steel Value Chain

The wagon project gives SMEL a higher-value outlet for steel products at a time when Indian infrastructure and freight transport demand remain important growth channels. Railway wagons require steel, fabrication capability, engineering control and customer qualification, making the business more complex than ordinary long steel sales.

The move also gives SMEL exposure to transport equipment manufacturing. This can improve margins if the company integrates steel supply, fabrication and finished wagon production effectively.

Ramsarup’s industrial platform is also expanding upstream and downstream. Phase one of its blast furnace, sinter and oxygen units has already been commissioned.

Planned phase two additions include an 85,000 t/yr steel wire-drawing line, a 100,000 t/yr blast furnace, 40MW of captive power and an 800,000 t/yr special bar quality mill.

The special bar quality mill is particularly relevant. SBQ products serve automotive, engineering, machinery, fasteners, rail and industrial components, giving SMEL another path toward higher-specification steel markets.

This strategy suggests that SMEL is not only adding capacity. It is trying to move into more engineered and application-specific products where customer relationships, product quality and downstream integration carry greater value.

Stainless and Aluminium Foil Strengthen Higher-Margin Portfolio

SMEL is also expanding in stainless steel and aluminium foil, giving the group a broader non-carbon steel platform. These segments provide exposure to higher-value materials used in consumer goods, industrial equipment, packaging and precision applications.

At Sambalpur in Odisha, SMEL plans to increase stainless steel capacity from 0.5mn t/yr to 0.6mn t/yr. The expansion will include a cold-rolling mill, precision cold-rolling mill, hot-rolling annealing and pickling line, and bright annealing line.

All units are targeted for commissioning by March 2029 at a cost of Rs18bn. The investment will help SMEL move further into value-added stainless products rather than relying only on melting or basic output.

Stainless steel delivered the strongest performance among SMEL’s non-carbon segments in the 2026 financial year. Realisations rose by 6.7% to Rs140,443/t, while volumes increased by 11.5% to 94,102t.

Aluminium foil achieved the highest per-tonne realisation in SMEL’s portfolio. Realisations rose by 10.4% to Rs379,805/t, while volumes were broadly flat at 21,620t because of capacity constraints ahead of expansion.

Speciality alloys were weaker. Full-year realisations slipped by 2.2% to Rs93,837/t despite volumes rising by 11.9% to 223,494t, reflecting softer ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese and silico-manganese markets through much of the year.

The overall direction is clear. SMEL is building a more diversified materials platform across railway wagons, stainless steel, aluminium foil, specialty alloys, wire drawing and SBQ products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s wagon project shows how Indian steelmakers are moving downstream to protect margins and capture infrastructure-linked demand. The real opportunity lies in combining steel production with engineered products, stainless processing and high-realisation aluminium foil.

South32 Gemco Manganese Operations Face Cyclone Narelle Supply Risk

South32, Gemco Manganese

South32 Gemco manganese operations are facing renewed weather-related disruption risk as Cyclone Narelle approaches Groote Eylandt in Australia’s Northern Territory. The company is moving non-essential personnel offsite while monitoring the incoming system with local emergency authorities.

The precautionary move comes as Cyclone Narelle is forecast to pass Groote Eylandt on Saturday afternoon. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to reach category three strength by that time, bringing stronger wind and rain conditions to the island.

South32 Gemco manganese operations are important to the seaborne manganese ore market because Gemco is a major source of high-grade Australian ore. Any operational disruption could affect supply flows into China, where manganese ore demand is closely tied to steel and alloy production.

Groote Eylandt Weather Risk Returns After Cyclone Megan Disruption

Groote Eylandt has already shown how severe weather can affect manganese supply. South32 paused mining operations at Gemco for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan, and manganese exports from the site only resumed in May 2025.

That history makes the latest cyclone warning more significant for the market. Even if the current action is only precautionary, buyers and traders will watch closely for any damage to mining, haulage, port infrastructure, or export schedules.

South32 plans to produce 3.2 million tonnes of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026. Maintaining that output will be important for stabilizing supply after the previous weather-related disruption.

Manganese Ore Market Watches China Demand and Australian Supply

South32 Gemco manganese operations also sit at an important point in the pricing cycle. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/mtu to $5.20/mtu in late January, citing expectations for stronger Chinese demand after the lunar new year holidays.

Cyclone-related uncertainty could add another layer of support if the market sees a risk to Australian export availability. Manganese ore is essential for steelmaking through ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production, so supply interruptions can quickly influence alloy raw material sentiment.

For now, the key issue is whether Cyclone Narelle causes only a short safety response or a broader operational setback. The market will focus on site access, port conditions, and South32’s ability to maintain shipment schedules after the weather system passes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s latest move shows that manganese supply risk is increasingly shaped by weather resilience as much as mine capacity. For steel-linked raw materials, reliable logistics from vulnerable export hubs can become a pricing factor overnight.