Kety Aluminium Extrusion Volumes Rise as Feedstock Volatility Clouds Outlook

Kety Aluminium

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes rose in the first quarter as the Polish aluminium extruder benefited from stronger sales, high plant utilisation and improved margins. Grupa Kety sold 27,200t of extruded products in January-March, up 7% from a year earlier.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes were supported by 85% capacity utilisation at the company’s extrusion plant. The result showed solid demand for extruded products despite rising aluminium prices and growing uncertainty across European supply chains.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes also helped lift profitability. Net profit rose by 20% on the year to 145mn zlotys, supported by stronger margins across its business divisions, including extruded products and aluminium construction systems.

However, the company is cautious about the rest of 2026. The US-Israel and Iran war has driven aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs higher, creating longer-term margin and demand risks.

Rising Billet Premiums Support Short-Term Margins

Kety has benefited in the short term from rising feedstock prices. The company was able to pass higher aluminium costs to customers while processing material from its own inventories.

This timing supported margins in the first quarter. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen by around 15% since the start of the Middle East war, while European aluminium billet premiums have more than doubled.

For an extruder holding inventory, a rising feedstock market can create temporary earnings support. Material purchased earlier at lower prices can be processed and sold into a higher-price environment.

Kety expects its extrusion plant utilisation to remain strong in the second quarter. This suggests that order flows have not yet weakened sharply despite higher input costs.

However, the benefit is unlikely to last indefinitely. If aluminium prices and billet premiums remain elevated, customers may resist further increases or delay orders.

This is the key risk for European extruders. Higher input prices can lift revenues in the short term, but they can also weaken downstream demand if construction, transport, industrial and consumer goods customers face margin pressure.

Feedstock Security and Cost Inflation Shape 2026 Risk

Kety said its feedstock supplies have been only slightly affected since the start of the Iran war. The company needed to diversify sources for small quantities, but it has not reported major supply disruption.

The company maintains around four to six weeks of feedstock needs in inventory. It also contracts new supplies within a two-month horizon, giving it some flexibility but not full insulation from market volatility.

Kety produces about half of the billet it needs for its extrusion operations. Its own scrap accounts for about 75% of the feedstock used in billet production.

This partial integration gives Kety a useful buffer. Internal billet production and scrap use reduce dependence on external billet markets, where premiums have surged.

Still, the company warned that continued increases in aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs could weigh on performance later in 2026.

Chief executive Roman Przybylski said a short-term aluminium price surge may help earnings, but longer-term increases are worrying. He warned that higher costs could contribute to prolonged stagflation when governments have limited room to stimulate markets after heavy Covid-19 spending.

For European aluminium processors, the issue is becoming structural. Supply disruption, higher energy-linked costs, billet premium inflation and weaker macroeconomic conditions can all squeeze margins at the same time.

Kety’s first-quarter performance was strong, but its outlook shows how quickly favourable inventory timing can turn into cost pressure if feedstock inflation persists.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kety’s results show how aluminium processors can benefit briefly from rising feedstock prices when inventories are well managed. The strategic risk is that sustained billet premium inflation could weaken downstream demand and turn short-term margin support into a longer-term volume problem.