Rivian Second-Life Battery Storage Project Links EV Packs to Grid Reliability

Rivian, Redwood

Rivian second-life battery storage is moving into commercial use after the US electric-vehicle maker agreed to deploy repurposed battery packs through Redwood Materials at its Normal manufacturing plant in Illinois. The project will use more than 100 used Rivian battery packs to provide 10 MWh of dispatchable battery energy storage.

The Rivian second-life battery storage project gives retired EV packs a second use before recycling. Redwood Materials will integrate the packs into a Redwood Energy system for on-site use at Rivian’s manufacturing facility.

Rivian second-life battery storage also reflects a wider shift in the battery value chain. Automakers and recyclers are looking for ways to extract more value from battery packs before recovering lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminium and other materials.

Redwood Turns Used EV Packs Into Stationary Storage

Redwood will receive EV battery packs from Rivian and convert them into a battery energy storage system for the Normal plant. The system will help reduce energy costs and support local grid reliability.

Second-life batteries are useful because EV packs can still retain meaningful capacity after vehicle use. They may no longer meet automotive performance requirements, but they can still serve stationary storage applications.

This creates a bridge between mobility and grid infrastructure. A battery pack can first support vehicle electrification, then provide stationary power, and later enter recycling for critical material recovery.

Redwood receives more than 20 GWh/yr of batteries, giving it a large feedstock base for both reuse and recycling. The company said it can deploy BESS projects in as little as six months, which matters as power demand rises quickly.

Data Center Power Demand Raises Storage Value

Rivian has attracted investors such as Google, which are seeking faster access to power solutions for artificial intelligence data center growth. This connection shows why second-life batteries are becoming more strategically relevant.

AI data centers need reliable, flexible and rapidly deployable power. Battery energy storage systems can help manage peak demand, improve resilience and reduce pressure on grids facing new large-load connections.

Repurposed EV batteries could become a lower-cost option where speed matters more than maximum energy density. They may also reduce waste and delay the need for immediate material recycling.

For the metals supply chain, this creates a more circular model. Battery materials stay in productive use longer, while recyclers build stronger long-term access to end-of-life packs and future recovered metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rivian and Redwood are showing how EV batteries can become grid assets before they become recycling feedstock. The strategic value lies in extending battery life, lowering storage costs and securing future material recovery in one integrated loop.

US Gallium Recovery Projects Target Domestic Supply Chain for Defense and Semiconductors

DOE(The US Department of Energy)

US gallium recovery projects will receive $5.4mn in funding from the Department of Energy as Washington tries to rebuild domestic supply for a metal critical to defense systems, semiconductors and advanced electronics. The funding will support five US-based projects under the Technology for Recovery and Advanced Critical-material Extraction – Gallium initiative.

The TRACE-Ga initiative is designed to prototype technologies that can recover gallium from US metal-processing feedstocks. This is important because the US is fully import-reliant for gallium and has not produced the metal domestically since 1987.

US gallium recovery projects are gaining urgency because gallium is essential for compound semiconductor materials, including gallium nitride. These materials support power electronics, radio-frequency devices, radar systems, satellite communications, fast chargers, LEDs and other high-performance technologies.

The funding is modest in scale, but strategically important. It signals that the US is no longer focusing only on mining new critical minerals. It is also trying to recover strategic metals from industrial by-products, waste streams and existing processing networks.

TRACE-Ga Funding Targets Recovery From Existing Feedstocks

The DOE award will support five companies working on gallium recovery technologies. Participants include PHNX Materials, Atlantic Alumina Company, Found Energy, Kunin Technologies and Indium Corporation.

The selection of companies shows how broad the recovery opportunity could become. Gallium is not usually mined as a primary product. It is commonly recovered as a by-product from other industrial processes, especially alumina and zinc-related supply chains.

This makes gallium recovery different from conventional mining. The key challenge is not only finding deposits, but identifying feedstocks where gallium exists in recoverable concentrations and developing technologies that can extract it economically.

Industrial waste refiner PHNX Materials could support recovery from complex waste streams. Atlantic Alumina Company brings relevance to alumina-linked feedstock. Found Energy adds an aluminum-related industrial angle, while Kunin Technologies focuses on mineral by-product recovery. Indium Corporation brings downstream metals refining and manufacturing expertise.

The TRACE-Ga initiative therefore targets the middle of the supply chain. It seeks to bridge the gap between laboratory recovery methods and scalable domestic production.

That gap matters because gallium supply is highly concentrated. China dominates primary gallium production and has used export controls to increase pressure on global buyers. For US defense and semiconductor supply chains, reliance on foreign gallium has become a clear strategic risk.

Domestic recovery could help reduce that exposure. Even if early projects produce limited volumes, they can prove process routes, identify feedstock partners and create the technical base for larger recovery systems.

The use of US metal-processing feedstocks also fits a wider circular materials strategy. Instead of waiting for new mines, the US can extract critical materials from industrial streams already moving through domestic facilities.

This could make recovery faster than new primary production. However, it still requires technical success, feedstock security, refining capability and customer qualification.

Gallium Nitride Demand Raises Strategic Pressure

Gallium’s strategic value has increased because of its role in gallium nitride and other compound semiconductor materials. Gallium nitride is widely used where high power, high frequency, efficiency and heat performance matter.

These applications are highly relevant to defense and advanced electronics. Radar, communications systems, satellite technologies, power conversion equipment and semiconductor devices all rely on materials where gallium can be difficult to substitute.

The DOE’s TRACE-Ga funding also sits alongside a larger notice of funding opportunity of up to $69mn. That programme targets technologies and processes that advance domestic production and refining of critical materials, including gallium and gallium nitride for semiconductor applications.

This shows that Washington is building a layered funding strategy. TRACE-Ga supports recovery prototypes, while broader DOE programmes aim to scale refining, alloying and advanced material production.

For the semiconductor industry, domestic gallium supply is not only a raw material issue. It is connected to wafer production, epitaxy, device manufacturing, packaging and defense procurement. A shortage or export disruption at the gallium stage can move through the entire compound semiconductor chain.

This is why gallium recovery matters even if volumes are small at first. Strategic materials often have low tonnage but high consequence. A reliable domestic supply stream can reduce procurement risk for critical systems.

The challenge will be commercialisation. Recovery from waste and by-products can be technically complex because gallium concentrations may be low and feedstock chemistry can vary. Companies must prove that their processes can recover gallium consistently, meet purity requirements and operate at competitive cost.

The US also needs downstream refining capacity. Recovering gallium-bearing material is not enough if the material cannot be refined into forms suitable for semiconductor and defense applications.

The DOE funding is therefore best understood as an early-stage industrial rebuilding tool. It does not immediately solve US gallium dependence, but it helps create the technologies and partnerships needed to rebuild supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US gallium recovery projects show that critical mineral security increasingly depends on recovering by-products from existing industrial systems. The strategic test will be whether TRACE-Ga can move beyond prototypes and create reliable domestic feedstock for gallium nitride, defense electronics and semiconductor manufacturing.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Aclara Rare Earth Oxides Plan Links Brazil Mining to US Separation

aclara

Aclara rare earth oxides production plans have been reaffirmed for the Carina project in Brazil, strengthening the company’s role in the emerging Americas rare earth supply chain. The Brazilian rare earth producer expects to produce more than 4,300 t/yr of rare earth oxides from 2028.

Aclara rare earth oxides output is expected to average 4,378 t/yr contained in mixed rare earth concentrate. The planned product mix includes 1,191 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium, 156 t/yr of dysprosium and 27 t/yr of terbium.

Aclara rare earth oxides are strategically important because NdPr, dysprosium and terbium are key inputs for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced industrial motors.

The Carina project is expected to have an 18-year mine life. Production costs are estimated at $29.20/kg of rare earth oxide produced, giving investors and customers a clearer basis for assessing the project’s long-term competitiveness.

Carina Project Adds Heavy Rare Earths to the Americas Supply Base

The Carina project’s value is not limited to light rare earths. Its mixed rare earth concentrate also contains several heavy rare earth elements that are difficult to secure outside China-linked supply chains.

Aclara expects annual output to include 173 t of samarium, 176 t of gadolinium, 10 t of lutetium and 1,160 t of yttrium. These materials add strategic depth to the project because heavy rare earth supply remains highly concentrated and increasingly sensitive to export controls.

Dysprosium and terbium are especially important for magnet performance. They improve heat resistance and magnetic stability in demanding applications such as EV traction motors, wind turbine generators and defence electronics.

The project therefore fits a wider western effort to build alternative rare earth supply chains. Brazil offers mineral potential, while the US provides downstream policy support and processing infrastructure incentives.

Construction at Carina is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026. Initial output is expected in the second half of 2028, followed by ramp-up in 2029.

Louisiana Separation Plan Builds Downstream Magnet Chain

Aclara plans to send material from Carina to Louisiana for separation and processing. The US site will produce rare earth metals and alloys, moving the project beyond mine supply into downstream magnet material preparation.

This structure matters because rare earth security depends on more than mining. Mixed rare earth concentrate must be separated, refined, converted into metals and alloyed before it can support permanent magnet production.

The Louisiana processing route could therefore create a more integrated Brazil-US rare earth chain. It links Brazilian ionic clay-style rare earth resources with US separation, metal and alloy capacity.

Public-sector support strengthens the project’s strategic profile. The US International Development Finance Corporation provided $5mn for Carina’s development, while Louisiana granted $46mn in tax incentives to accelerate the separation project.

For western magnet manufacturers, Aclara’s model offers potential supply diversification. The company could provide NdPr, dysprosium and terbium units into a market where downstream users are actively seeking non-China material.

However, execution remains critical. The project must move through construction, commissioning, ramp-up and qualification before it can become a reliable supply source for magnet makers and strategic customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aclara’s plan shows that rare earth competitiveness now depends on linking mine output with separation and metal conversion. The Brazil-Louisiana route could become strategically important if it delivers heavy rare earth volumes into the Americas magnet supply chain.

Stardust Lithium Chloride Feedstock Agreement Supports Oklahoma Refinery Plan

Stardust Power

Stardust lithium chloride feedstock agreement has strengthened the company’s plan to supply its Muskogee, Oklahoma refinery with domestic lithium brine material for battery-grade lithium carbonate production. The deal covers lithium chloride feedstock from a California brine project, with initial deliveries scheduled for the first half of 2028.

The agreement could provide up to 15,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent. Stardust Power has not yet disclosed the specific project name or location, saying those details will follow after a definitive agreement is signed.

Stardust lithium chloride feedstock agreement is strategically important because the company’s Muskogee refinery is planned for up to 50,000 t/yr of LCE capacity. Securing feedstock is one of the most important requirements for any lithium conversion project, especially as the US tries to build more domestic battery materials capacity.

California Brine Supply Adds Domestic Feedstock Option

The feedstock will come from a lithium brine project in California, making the agreement part of a wider US push to connect brine resources with domestic refining. California’s Salton Sea region has become one of the most closely watched lithium extraction zones in North America.

Companies active in the region include Berkshire Hathaway Energy Renewables, EnergySource and Controlled Thermal Resources. Based on expected integration and potential volume, Controlled Thermal Resources is considered the most likely supplier.

This matters because lithium chloride from brine projects can become an important input for downstream lithium carbonate production. If direct lithium extraction and brine processing projects scale successfully, they could reduce US dependence on imported lithium chemicals.

The timing remains important. Deliveries are not expected until 2028, which means Stardust still needs to manage project development, financing, permitting, customer qualification and feedstock conversion before commercial output can be secured.

Muskogee Refinery Builds a Broader Lithium Supply Network

Stardust’s Muskogee refinery is planned to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, a key material for cathode production and lithium-ion batteries. The project is designed for up to 50,000 t/yr of LCE capacity, making feedstock diversification essential.

The California agreement adds to Stardust’s existing feedstock network. Other partners include Prairie Lithium in Canada and Mandrake Resources in Utah, giving the company multiple potential raw material streams.

The company also has a non-binding offtake agreement with Sumitomo for up to 25,000 t/yr of LCE over 10 years. That agreement gives Stardust a potential downstream sales channel, but commercial execution will depend on turning feedstock agreements into qualified battery-grade production.

For the US lithium supply chain, the project reflects a broader challenge. Domestic refinery announcements are increasing, but long-term success depends on reliable brine supply, conversion technology, customer qualification and competitive production costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Stardust’s agreement shows that lithium refining projects are only as strong as their feedstock base. The Muskogee refinery could become a meaningful US lithium carbonate platform, but its real test will be converting domestic brine supply into bankable, battery-grade output.

Indonesia HPM Formula Raises Nickel Ore Cost Risk for HPAL Producers

ESDM

Indonesia HPM formula changes will reshape nickel ore pricing from 15 April, adding new cost pressure across the country’s nickel processing chain. The energy and mineral resources ministry revised the mineral benchmark price mechanism for nickel and aluminium ore, with nickel valuation now expanded beyond nickel content alone.

The Indonesia HPM formula raises the correction factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, compared with the previous 20% correction factor for 1.9% ore. Under the new framework, the correction factor rises or falls by one percentage point for every 0.1% change in nickel content.

This means the correction factor for 1.9% nickel ore will rise to 33%. The change increases the official value of nickel ore and could raise taxes, royalties and feedstock costs for processors that rely on HPM-linked transactions.

The Indonesia HPM formula also adds cobalt, iron and chromium into ore valuation. This is a major policy shift because these contained elements were not previously priced in the same way. Indonesia is now moving toward a more complete ore-value model, especially for laterite ores used in battery and stainless steel supply chains.

Cobalt, Iron and Chromium Inclusion Changes Nickel Ore Valuation

Indonesia’s new nickel HPM framework gives cobalt a correction factor of 30% when ore contains at least 0.05% cobalt. This is particularly important for high-pressure acid leach producers because cobalt-bearing ore can generate additional value through mixed hydroxide precipitate.

The ministry also introduced a 10% correction factor for iron when ore contains 35% or less iron. Chromium content also carries a 10% correction factor. These additions make ore valuation more complex and link pricing more closely to the full chemistry of laterite deposits.

The inclusion of cobalt is the most strategically important change. Indonesia’s HPAL projects produce nickel-cobalt intermediates for battery supply chains, and cobalt content can materially affect project economics. By taxing cobalt-bearing value inside ore, Jakarta is capturing more upstream rent from battery-linked mineral flows.

The Indonesia HPM formula therefore moves beyond a simple nickel-grade benchmark. It pushes the country toward a broader mineral-value system that recognises by-product metals and secondary contained value.

The ministry kept the Harga Mineral Acuan reference price unchanged. This means the immediate policy impact comes from correction factors and added contained elements, rather than a change in the headline reference price.

Market participants are now assessing how the new rules will pass through to actual transactions. For nickel ore used in rotary kiln-electric furnace production, spot prices remain nearly double the HPM level. This limits the immediate impact on some stainless-linked ore trades because market prices already sit well above the official benchmark.

The impact is likely to be much stronger for HPAL ore. Ore used in HPAL processing often trades without the same premium seen in RKEF feedstock. As a result, the revised HPM formula could lift transacted HPAL ore prices by more than a third.

That cost increase would move directly into battery-grade nickel economics. Market participants estimate that higher ore prices and taxes could raise mixed hydroxide precipitate production costs by more than $1,000/t in nickel metal equivalent.

This matters because Indonesia has become the centre of global MHP supply growth. Chinese-backed HPAL projects rely on Indonesian ore, sulphuric acid, energy and logistics to supply nickel and cobalt intermediates to global battery chains. Higher ore costs could narrow margins across MHP, nickel sulphate and cathode material supply.

The change also arrives during a period of wider nickel policy uncertainty. Indonesia has been tightening mining quotas, reviewing export taxes and seeking greater value capture from its mineral resources. The revised HPM formula fits that direction by increasing government control over pricing and taxable value.

Nickel Policy Shift Extends to Bauxite and Signals Broader Resource Control

Indonesia’s pricing reform did not stop at nickel. The ministry also revised the HPM formula for bauxite, changing the price basis to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne.

The bauxite change adds a silica discount and raises the correction factor to $1.40/wmt for each one percentage point increase in aluminium oxide content. The previous formula used $1/dmt. This changes how moisture and ore quality are reflected in benchmark pricing.

The ministry also changed the price basis for lead ore to dollars per wet metric tonne from dollars per dry metric tonne. This effectively removes moisture content from the pricing formula and simplifies the benchmark around wet material values.

These changes suggest a broader policy direction. Indonesia is refining benchmark pricing across mineral commodities to improve tax collection, capture more contained value and align official pricing with ore quality.

For nickel, the change has immediate market significance because Indonesia dominates global laterite supply. Nickel ore pricing affects stainless steel, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, MHP, nickel sulphate and battery cathode supply chains.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel price response showed that traders are treating the policy as price-supportive. Nickel closed at Yn136,900/t after rising from Yn133,010/t on 3 April, with participants citing support from the revised HMA-linked pricing framework.

However, the real market impact will depend on how producers, smelters and government agencies implement the rules. If HPM-based taxes rise sharply while spot ore prices remain high, margin pressure could build across processors with weaker cost positions.

HPAL producers are the most exposed because their feedstock pricing may move more directly with the revised benchmark. RKEF operators may see less immediate change because their ore costs already reflect strong market premiums.

For battery materials buyers, the risk is that Indonesia’s cost base becomes more expensive even as global nickel markets remain oversupplied. Higher ore valuation may not tighten physical supply immediately, but it can raise the floor for production costs in one of the world’s most important nickel processing hubs.

For Indonesia, the policy strengthens resource sovereignty. The government is using pricing formulas, mining quotas, export controls and tax compliance to ensure that more mineral value stays inside the country. This could support domestic revenue and downstream investment, but it may also increase uncertainty for processors and foreign investors.

The new framework also creates a precedent. If Indonesia successfully captures more value from cobalt, iron and chromium in nickel ore, other resource-rich countries may consider similar contained-metal pricing models.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula shows that nickel policy is moving from volume control to value capture. The biggest impact will fall on HPAL producers, where cobalt-bearing ore valuation could raise MHP costs and change battery nickel economics.

Safran Forging Press Expansion Strengthens France’s Jet Engine Supply Chain

Safran, Forging

Safran forging press investment in Gennevilliers will expand the French engine manufacturer’s capacity to produce large, high-performance aerospace components. The company plans to install a 30,000t hydraulic press that is expected to become operational in 2029.

The €150mn press will be able to produce 14,000 parts a year at full capacity. It will support higher output of the CFM International LEAP engine, which Safran jointly manufactures with GE Aerospace.

Safran forging press expansion also supports military engine supply chains. The new equipment will help produce parts for engines used in the Rafale, Mirage and A400M aircraft, as well as high-thrust GE engines where Safran supplies high-pressure and low-pressure compressors.

The investment shows how aerospace manufacturers are preparing for sustained engine demand. Airbus and Boeing are both trying to raise production rates for the A320neo Family and 737 MAX, increasing pressure on qualified forging, casting, machining and superalloy supply chains.

High-Tonnage Forging Capacity Targets Future Engine Programmes

The new Safran forging press will give the company more capability to manufacture large engine parts. This is important because next-generation civil aircraft engines are expected to require larger, more complex and more demanding forged components.

Large hydraulic presses are strategic assets in aerospace manufacturing. They allow producers to shape high-strength alloys under controlled conditions, improving structural integrity, fatigue performance and reliability in critical rotating and static engine parts.

The press will also reduce dependence on constrained external forging capacity. Aerospace supply chains have faced recurring bottlenecks in qualified forgings, castings, titanium products, nickel alloy parts and precision-machined components.

For Safran, adding high-tonnage forging capacity supports both current programmes and future engine platforms. The investment strengthens control over key manufacturing steps at a time when engine makers are trying to improve delivery reliability.

Nickel Superalloys and Titanium Remain Critical Engine Materials

Safran’s investment has direct implications for high-performance metals. Nickel-based superalloys are essential for turbine forgings because they retain strength, creep resistance and oxidation resistance at extreme temperatures.

These materials are used in the hottest sections of jet engines, where ordinary alloys cannot survive. As engine efficiency targets rise, demand for advanced nickel superalloy processing remains strategically important.

Titanium is also critical in lower-temperature engine sections, including low-pressure compressors. Its high strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance make it essential for aerospace systems where weight reduction and mechanical performance matter together.

The Gennevilliers project follows Safran’s broader capacity buildout. The company is investing in a new turbine casting facility in La Janais, Rennes, scheduled for commissioning in 2027, and has committed €70mn to expand complex rotating part capacity at Le Creusot by 2029.

Together, these investments point to a coordinated engine materials strategy. Safran is strengthening forging, casting and rotating component capacity to support civil and military aerospace demand through the next production cycle.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s 30,000t press shows that aerospace competitiveness increasingly depends on control of qualified materials processing capacity. Nickel superalloy and titanium supply will remain critical as engine makers race to meet higher build rates without sacrificing reliability.

Element 25 Butcherbird Manganese Expansion Gains Funding for Battery Supply Chain

Element 25

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion has moved forward after the Australian metals producer raised $18mn in equity to support the next phase of mine growth. The funding will help expand manganese concentrate output from the Butcherbird mine in Western Australia.

The project is expected to triple Butcherbird’s manganese concentrate production to 1.1mn t/yr from 365,000 t/yr. Full mechanical completion and commissioning are expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion is strategically important because the mine will supply feedstock for the company’s planned battery-grade manganese sulphate refinery in Louisiana. That project links Australian ore supply with US battery materials processing.

The expansion also strengthens Element 25’s role in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company already has offtake agreements with General Motors and Stellantis, giving the project direct exposure to automaker demand for non-China battery materials.

Butcherbird Expansion Builds Manganese Feedstock Scale

Western Australia’s state government approved the Butcherbird expansion in March 2025. The mine is expected to operate for at least 18 years, giving Element 25 a long-term feedstock platform.

The planned increase to 1.1mn t/yr of manganese concentrate would materially change the scale of the operation. Higher concentrate output should support downstream conversion into battery-grade manganese sulphate while also leaving room for sales into traditional steel markets.

Manganese remains a key steelmaking input because it improves strength and toughness. Element 25 plans to sell excess concentrate to steelmakers, creating a secondary demand channel outside batteries.

However, the main strategic value is in batteries. Manganese is increasingly important for lithium-ion battery chemistries as automakers seek lower-cost, more secure and less cobalt-dependent cathode materials.

Louisiana Refinery Links Australia to US Battery Materials Policy

Element 25’s manganese concentrate will mainly feed its battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate facility in Louisiana. The refinery is planned for 135,000 t/yr of production capacity.

The US government backed the Louisiana refinery with a $166mn grant in January last year. This support reflects Washington’s effort to build domestic processing capacity for battery materials and reduce reliance on China-controlled supply chains.

The Australian government also opened a A$50mn loan package in June to support the Butcherbird expansion. Together, the US and Australian support show how allied governments are trying to connect mining, refining and EV manufacturing supply chains.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion therefore fits a broader industrial strategy. Australia provides the resource base, while the US builds refining capacity closer to automakers and battery manufacturers.

The project’s success will depend on execution at both ends of the chain. Butcherbird must deliver concentrate at scale, while Louisiana must convert that material into battery-grade sulphate that meets customer specifications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Element 25’s project shows how manganese is moving from a steelmaking material into a strategic battery supply input. The key challenge will be proving that mine expansion and US chemical refining can scale together on the timeline automakers require.

Ningbo Yunsheng NdFeB Magnet Output Rises on NEV and AI Terminal Demand

Ningbo Yunsheng

Ningbo Yunsheng NdFeB magnet output increased in 2025 as demand from new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, industrial motors and robots supported China’s rare earth permanent magnet sector. The company produced 14,856t of finished neodymium-iron-boron magnets during the year, up 11% from 2024.

Ningbo Yunsheng NdFeB magnet output growth was matched by stronger sales. The company sold 14,197t of finished NdFeB magnets in 2025, up 10% from a year earlier, while inventories rose by 47% to 2,055t.

The inventory increase shows that supply growth remains strong even as downstream demand improves. For China’s magnet industry, the key question is whether expanding production capacity can stay aligned with demand from EVs, AI devices, robots and high-efficiency motors.

NEVs and Consumer Electronics Strengthen Magnet Revenue

Yunsheng’s revenue rose by 6% on the year to 5.46bn yuan, while profit increased sharply to 330.82mn yuan from 95mn yuan in 2024. The improvement reflected stronger demand in its core downstream sectors and higher-value magnetic component sales.

Revenue from NdFeB permanent magnetic materials sold as magnetic components rose by 60% to 705mn yuan. This suggests that Yunsheng is gaining value not only from magnet volume, but also from more advanced component-level products.

The NEV sector remained the company’s largest growth driver. Yunsheng’s sales revenue from new energy vehicle applications rose by 9.6% to 2.55bn yuan in 2025.

China sold 12.8mn NEV passenger cars in 2025, up 18% from a year earlier. NEVs accounted for 54% of total domestic passenger car sales, reinforcing the role of electric drivetrains in magnet demand.

NdFeB magnets are critical for high-efficiency motors used in electric vehicles, power steering systems, industrial automation and robotics. As vehicle electrification deepens, magnet suppliers remain closely tied to demand for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

Consumer electronics also supported Yunsheng’s performance. Revenue from the sector rose by 0.8% to 1.3bn yuan, helped by rapid growth in AI terminal product shipments and continued development of generative AI technologies.

Baotou Expansion Adds High-Performance Magnet Capacity

Ningbo Yunsheng NdFeB magnet output is set to receive further support from capacity expansion. The company had 26,000 t/yr of rough NdFeB magnet capacity and 10,000 t/yr of grain boundary diffusion capacity by the end of 2025.

Grain boundary diffusion is strategically important because it improves magnet performance while helping manage the use of heavy rare earths. This matters for high-performance applications where heat resistance, magnetic stability and material efficiency are critical.

Yunsheng is expanding its Baotou site to 15,000 t/yr of high-performance permanent magnetic materials by June 2026. The first 5,000 t/yr phase has been operating since June 2025, and the second 10,000 t/yr phase is expected to come on line in 2026.

Baotou is a strategically important location because it sits close to China’s rare earth resource and processing base. This gives magnet producers logistical and supply-chain advantages in sourcing rare earth materials and scaling downstream manufacturing.

The expansion also highlights China’s continued dominance in the rare earth magnet value chain. As global demand rises from EVs, AI hardware, robotics, industrial motors and clean-energy systems, Chinese producers are still adding capacity faster than most overseas competitors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Yunsheng’s results show that rare earth magnet demand is broadening from EVs into AI terminals, robotics and high-efficiency motors. The next strategic risk is not only demand growth, but whether rising Chinese magnet capacity creates inventory pressure while tightening demand for high-quality rare earth feedstock.

Hunan Gold Antimony Output Falls as Ore Supply Tightens in China

Hunan Gold

Hunan Gold antimony output fell sharply in 2025 as China’s domestic ore availability weakened and overseas feedstock flows shifted toward non-Chinese smelters. The major Chinese antimony producer reported 22,998t of antimony products during the year, down 21% from 29,209t in 2024.

The decline continues a multi-year downward trend. Hunan Gold antimony output was also below 31,005t in 2023, 30,715t in 2022 and 39,310t in 2021, showing how resource depletion and feedstock competition are weighing on Chinese production.

Hunan Gold antimony output matters because China remains central to global antimony supply, while antimony is increasingly important for flame retardants, military applications, lead alloys, batteries, cables and strategic industrial uses. Lower output from a major Chinese producer reinforces concerns over tightening availability.

Resource Depletion and Import Competition Reduce Feedstock Access

China’s domestic antimony resources have continued to decline after years of over-exploitation. This has limited ore availability for smelters and placed more pressure on producers that depend on both domestic mines and imported feedstock.

Import supply has also become more difficult. Key overseas ore suppliers have diverted more material to smelters outside China, where buyers are willing to pay higher prices to secure supply.

This shift reflects firmer global antimony prices after China imposed stricter dual-use item export controls. The policy tightened ex-China availability and encouraged foreign buyers to compete more aggressively for ore and intermediate supply.

The result is a structural squeeze for Chinese antimony producers. They face declining domestic resources, stronger competition for imported ore and a more fragmented international feedstock market.

Product Mix Shows Pressure Across Antimony Chain

Hunan Gold’s 2025 antimony production included 5,823t of antimony metal, 9,524t of antimony trioxide, 4,842t of sodium antimonate, 2,506t of ethylene glycol antimony and 303t of antimony oxide masterbatch.

Antimony trioxide remained the company’s largest antimony product by volume. It is widely used in flame retardant systems, making it important for plastics, electronics, textiles and industrial safety applications.

Antimony metal remains strategically important for alloying and defense-linked uses. Sodium antimonate and ethylene glycol antimony also support downstream chemical and industrial applications, linking ore supply constraints to multiple end markets.

Hunan Gold also produced 61t of gold in 2025, up 32% from a year earlier, while tungsten concentrate output fell by 10% to 908t. This shows that the company’s broader metals portfolio performed unevenly, with antimony facing the clearest supply-side pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hunan Gold’s lower output shows that China’s antimony position is being squeezed from both sides: depleted domestic resources and stronger overseas competition for ore. For global buyers, the key risk is that export controls and falling Chinese output reinforce each other, keeping antimony supply tight.

Glencore Aluminum Recycling Stake Expands South Carolina Remelting Footprint

Aluminum Scrap

Glencore aluminum recycling exposure has expanded after the global commodities trading group acquired a 45% stake in a planned South Carolina aluminum facility. Alumicore will operate the plant and retain the remaining 55% interest.

The investment builds on Glencore’s earlier financial support for the recycling and remelting project. Those earlier investments were aimed at securing marketing rights for the plant’s future production.

Glencore aluminum recycling growth reflects rising interest in secondary aluminum supply in the US. Recycled aluminum can reduce energy intensity, support lower-carbon material demand, and improve feedstock optionality for manufacturers exposed to volatile primary aluminum markets.

Alumicore Platform Adds Recycling and Remelting Scale

The South Carolina site will become part of Alumicore’s wider recycling network. Glencore said the new plant, together with Alumicore’s operations in Monessen and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, will lift the company’s total recycling capacity to more than 120,000 t/yr.

Few details were disclosed about the planned facility near Charleston. However, the project appears focused on recycling and remelting, which are increasingly important parts of the North American aluminum value chain.

Aluminum remelting capacity gives processors a route to convert scrap into reusable material for downstream manufacturing. This is strategically relevant as automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial customers look for lower-carbon aluminum inputs.

The marketing-rights element is also important. Glencore is not only taking an equity position; it is strengthening access to future metal flows from the facility. That fits the trading house’s broader strategy of combining physical assets, offtake control and scrap supply channels.

Charleston Area Becomes a Secondary Aluminum Growth Point

The deal also deepens Glencore’s footprint in South Carolina. The company previously entered a joint venture with nonferrous scrap recycler Zeb Metals in 2023 to develop an aluminum scrap and dross recycling operation around Charleston.

That earlier project and the Alumicore investment point to a regional strategy. Charleston offers logistics advantages, industrial demand access and a potential platform for collecting, processing and marketing secondary aluminum products.

Aluminum dross and scrap recycling are becoming more valuable as producers and traders try to capture more metal units from waste streams. Better recovery can reduce reliance on primary aluminum and support circular supply for domestic manufacturers.

For Glencore, the South Carolina investment strengthens its position in a market where recycled metal is becoming more strategic. For Alumicore, Glencore’s stake adds a global marketing partner with deep metals trading and supply-chain reach.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s investment shows that aluminum recycling is becoming a strategic materials business, not only a scrap trade. Control over remelting capacity, dross recovery and marketing rights will matter more as customers seek lower-carbon aluminum supply.

Energy Fuels Uranium Guidance Could Be Met by Midyear as White Mesa Output Accelerates

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels uranium guidance could be reached by the end of June as the US producer completes its current ore-processing campaign at the White Mesa Mill in Utah. The company expects uranium oxide production to reach 1.6mn lb by midyear, within its full-year guidance range of 1.5mn-2.5mn lb.

Energy Fuels uranium guidance is significant because White Mesa is currently the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium mill in the US. That gives the company a strategic position in domestic uranium supply at a time when western governments are trying to rebuild nuclear fuel and critical mineral capacity.

Energy Fuels uranium guidance also reflects stronger mine-to-mill performance from its conventional assets. The company is processing ore from the Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona and the La Sal Complex in Utah, with output expected to average more than 265,000 lb/month of finished uranium during the current campaign.

The company’s shares rose after the operational update, lifting its New York market capitalisation to about $3.6bn. But the stock remains lower year to date, showing that investors still want proof that production strength can translate into durable cash flow and diversified critical materials growth.

White Mesa Mill Strengthens US Uranium Supply Position

White Mesa’s performance is central to Energy Fuels’ role in the US uranium market. The company expects the current processing campaign to finish by the end of June, after which it plans to rebuild ore stockpiles before resuming processing in the fourth quarter.

The timing matters because uranium supply security has become more important for nuclear power, energy security and US strategic fuel planning. Conventional uranium mills are scarce in the US, so steady White Mesa operation gives Energy Fuels a domestic processing advantage that many developers do not have.

Energy Fuels also expects mining performance to improve in the second half of the year. Ore grades and contained uranium are projected to rise, while first-half contained U3O8 production in ore is expected at 750,000-850,000 lb.

The company expects White Mesa ore processing costs of $9-12/lb, near historic lows. Lower processing costs could strengthen margins if uranium prices remain supportive and mine output continues to improve.

This cost performance is especially important because the US uranium sector is still rebuilding after years of underinvestment. Higher grades, reliable ore feed and low processing costs can separate operating producers from companies that only hold development-stage resources.

Energy Fuels said its cost of sales should continue to decline in 2026. If that trend holds, the company could strengthen its position as the leading conventional US uranium producer while maintaining operational flexibility for later processing campaigns.

The midyear guidance achievement would not necessarily mean full-year production stops there. Instead, it would give the company more optionality for the second half, depending on ore availability, mine performance, market conditions and inventory strategy.

Rare Earth Upgrades Add Heavy Rare Earth Growth Path

Energy Fuels is also using White Mesa to build a rare earth separation platform alongside uranium. The mill processes natural monazite sand sourced globally and began commercial separation of rare earth elements two years ago, starting with neodymium-praseodymium.

The company has since added capability for heavy rare earths, including samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium and dysprosium. These materials are important for permanent magnets, defence systems, electronics, high-performance motors and clean-energy technologies.

Energy Fuels plans to begin further modifications to its existing Phase 1 rare earth circuits in July. The upgrades are designed to allow commercial production of heavy rare earths in addition to existing commercial quantities of NdPr.

This is strategically important because heavy rare earth supply remains highly concentrated. Dysprosium and terbium are especially critical for high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics and defence applications.

The planned modifications will also add a circuit to process uranium-bearing mixed rare earth carbonates from global mines, including material from ionic adsorption clay sources. Because these mixed rare earth carbonates can feed directly into solvent extraction separation, the new circuit could allow White Mesa to process uranium and separated rare earths simultaneously.

That dual-processing model is important. It could turn White Mesa from a uranium mill with rare earth exposure into a more integrated critical minerals facility. The ability to process multiple feedstocks could improve utilisation, diversify revenue and strengthen domestic supply-chain resilience.

Energy Fuels expects the modifications to become operational in late 2027 to early 2028. The company is also planning a Phase 2 expansion that could raise total rare earth capacity at White Mesa to nearly 6,300 t/yr.

Permitting for both the circuit modifications and Phase 2 expansion is proceeding on schedule, according to the company. If delivered, White Mesa could become one of the most important US platforms linking uranium recovery, monazite processing, NdPr separation and heavy rare earth production.

The broader implication is that Energy Fuels is positioning itself across two strategic supply chains at once. Uranium supports nuclear energy security, while rare earth separation supports magnets, defence, electrification and advanced manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels’ update shows why existing processing infrastructure is becoming strategically valuable in the US. White Mesa is not only a uranium asset; it could become a rare domestic bridge between nuclear fuel security and heavy rare earth separation.

Indium Phosphide Exports Become China’s New Chokepoint in AI Data Centre Supply Chain

AI data centre

Indium phosphide exports have become a strategic pressure point in the global AI data centre supply chain as China’s licensing controls delay shipments of a material essential for high-speed optical chips. The restrictions are exposing a new vulnerability in AI infrastructure: the physical materials behind silicon photonics and optical interconnects.

The issue has moved quickly from a specialist semiconductor concern to a high-level trade and industrial policy problem. Coherent, a key optical components supplier backed by Nvidia, warned in early May that indium phosphide shortages were already affecting the market. Its chief executive then joined a US business delegation to China as companies sought relief from export licence delays.

Indium phosphide exports matter because AI data centres are moving beyond copper-based interconnects. As AI workloads grow, hyperscalers need faster, lower-latency and more energy-efficient data transmission between processors, accelerators, switches and optical modules. Indium phosphide is one of the core materials enabling that shift.

The material is used in high-speed optical chips, lasers, detectors and photonic components. These devices support the optical links that move huge volumes of data across AI clusters. Without reliable indium phosphide substrates and wafers, the expansion of advanced AI data centre networks could slow.

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that critical materials policy is becoming more granular. Beijing no longer needs to restrict only rare earths or finished technology products. It can also influence upstream compounds, substrates and wafers that determine whether advanced semiconductor supply chains can scale.

Export Controls Expose a Hidden Bottleneck in Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics has become a critical technology for AI infrastructure because it allows data to move through light rather than electrical signals. This reduces energy use per bit and supports the bandwidth required by large AI systems.

But silicon photonics is not only a silicon story. The most advanced optical systems often require compound semiconductor materials such as indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride and germanium-based compounds. Indium phosphide is especially important for lasers and high-speed optical devices.

This creates a difficult supply chain problem. AI companies, hyperscalers and chipmakers are racing to scale optical modules, but one of the key substrate materials remains highly concentrated. China is the world’s largest indium producer, accounting for about 70% of global output in 2024.

That concentration became more serious after China introduced export restrictions on indium phosphide in February 2025. Since then, licence delays have created backlogs for companies that manufacture or source InP substrates from China.

AXT, one of the world’s largest indium phosphide substrate producers and a major supplier to Coherent, said export permits were its most significant challenge. The company manufactures most of its InP substrates in China and only received its first permits last June. It still faces a large order backlog.

The effect has spread beyond individual suppliers. Coherent, Lumentum, VPEC and LandMark Optoelectronics all sit inside the optical components ecosystem that depends on reliable substrate supply. When permit delays hit upstream InP material, the impact moves through wafers, chips, optical modules and AI data centre equipment.

Prices show the severity of the shortage. Since China introduced export restrictions, the average price of a 6-inch indium phosphide wafer has surged by 250% to about $5,000. That price increase reflects both physical scarcity and the strategic premium attached to non-disrupted supply.

The supply squeeze also comes at a time of aggressive photonics investment. Nvidia announced $2bn investments each in Coherent and Lumentum in March. Marvell Technology also moved into photonics through its acquisition of Celestial AI, reflecting stronger demand for optical technology in AI computing.

These investments show where the industry is heading. AI infrastructure needs optical interconnects to manage power, latency and bandwidth. But China’s indium phosphide controls mean that materials availability could become a gating factor for deployment.

Companies are trying to respond. Coherent plans to double its InP wafer capacity at its Texas plant this year and more than double it again by the end of 2027. US photonics firms are also seeking supply from non-Chinese producers such as Sumitomo Electric Industries.

However, capacity additions are slow. New substrate plants can take two to three years to bring online. Qualification cycles are also long because optical chipmakers cannot easily switch substrate suppliers without testing performance, reliability and consistency.

This makes the shortage difficult to solve quickly. Even if new capacity is announced, it may not arrive fast enough to meet near-term AI data centre demand. Meanwhile, many non-China producers already consume part of their own output internally, reducing the amount available to the broader market.

China’s Materials Chokepoint Strategy Strengthens Domestic Producers

China’s indium phosphide export controls are creating both pressure and opportunity. They restrict global supply, but they also support domestic Chinese substrate producers that are expanding capacity.

Yunnan Germanium, Guangdong Xiandao and Zhuhai Dingtai Xinyuan are among China’s leading domestic InP substrate players. Their role is becoming more important as Beijing uses materials controls to strengthen strategic leverage across semiconductor and AI supply chains.

Yunnan Germanium has already moved to expand. The company announced a 189mn yuan investment in April to raise production capacity to 450,000 single InP wafers annually. Its shipments of InP wafers rose by 74% in 2025, showing fast domestic market growth.

Guangdong Xiandao is also expanding through its subsidiary Guangdong Xianrui. The project is expected to produce 40 t/yr of indium phosphide crystals, which are used as raw material for substrates.

These investments fit a broader pattern. China is not only defending control over upstream critical materials. It is also building downstream processing capacity in higher-value compound semiconductor materials.

However, Chinese producers may not immediately solve the global shortage. Some are still seeking export approvals, and any overseas shipments may be limited. Domestic demand remains a priority, especially as China builds its own AI, optical communications and semiconductor ecosystem.

AXT

Supplier qualification creates another barrier. Companies such as Coherent and Lumentum are unlikely to switch easily from established suppliers. Coherent relies heavily on AXT, while Lumentum sources mainly from Sumitomo and JX Advanced Metals. New suppliers must pass demanding qualification cycles before they can enter critical optical chip supply chains.

This gives China’s export controls a long-lasting effect. Even if alternative suppliers exist, the market cannot instantly redirect demand. The bottleneck is not only production volume. It is qualified, high-quality, customer-approved substrate supply.

The strategic lesson is clear. AI supply chains are not only exposed to advanced chips, GPUs and packaging capacity. They also depend on a deep materials stack that includes indium, phosphorous chemistry, InP crystals, substrates, wafers, lasers, detectors and optical modules.

This is why indium phosphide exports have become so important. AI data centre buildouts need more optical links as clusters grow larger. Copper interconnects face limits in speed, distance and energy consumption. Photonics offers a solution, but only if the materials chain can scale.

For the US and its allies, the response will likely require more than emergency licence negotiations. It will require investment in indium recovery, InP crystal growth, substrate manufacturing, wafer capacity and long-term offtake agreements. It may also require strategic stockpiles for high-purity indium and compound semiconductor substrates.

The issue also strengthens the case for recycling and secondary recovery. Indium is often produced as a by-product, making primary supply difficult to expand quickly. Recovering indium from industrial scrap, displays, semiconductors and related waste streams could become more important if export controls persist.

For AI data centre developers, the risk is timing. Demand for optical modules is accelerating now, while new ex-China capacity may not fully arrive until 2027 or later. That mismatch could raise costs, delay deployments and intensify competition for qualified photonics suppliers.

The market may therefore see a split. Companies with secured InP supply will be better positioned to support hyperscaler demand. Companies exposed to licence delays, qualification bottlenecks or spot-market wafers may face higher costs and delivery risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s control over indium phosphide exports shows that the AI race is becoming a materials race. The next bottleneck may not be only GPUs or power supply, but the compound semiconductor substrates needed to move data fast enough inside AI clusters.

High-Purity Iron Plant Targets US Rare Earth Magnet Supply Gap

Hertha Metals

High-purity iron is emerging as a hidden bottleneck in the US rare earth magnet supply chain as new defense sourcing rules approach. Houston-based Hertha Metals plans to build a 10,000 t/yr plant in Texas to produce high-purity iron used in neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets.

The project targets a less visible vulnerability in magnet manufacturing. US policy has focused heavily on rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium, but NdFeB magnets also require high-purity iron. Hertha Metals says about 90% of this material is currently produced in China.

The timing is strategically important. Updated Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations are set to take effect on 1 January 2027, restricting Chinese-origin rare earth magnets and constituent materials in covered US defense systems. That rule could force defense contractors, magnet makers and upstream material suppliers to rebuild supply chains around non-China sources.

Hertha Metals plans to break ground later this summer. The company says its Texas plant will become the first domestic producer of high-purity iron for this application, positioning the project at the intersection of magnet security, steelmaking technology and US industrial policy.

DFARS Rules Put Magnet Inputs Under Supply Chain Pressure

The 2027 DFARS deadline changes the strategic value of upstream magnet materials. Compliance will not depend only on where final magnets are assembled. It will also depend on the origin of constituent materials used in defense-related systems.

This creates a direct opportunity for domestic high-purity iron. NdFeB magnets require neodymium, praseodymium and often dysprosium or terbium for performance, but iron remains the major base component. If high-purity iron remains China-dependent, US magnet supply chains could still face compliance risk even if rare earth oxides or metals are sourced elsewhere.

Hertha Metals is trying to address that gap with its FLEXHERS process, short for flexible fuel hydrogen electric reduction smelting. The process combines electric arc furnace technology with natural gas or hydrogen to produce iron and steel.

The company says the technology can use lower-grade ores and iron ore fines that are difficult to process economically through conventional blast furnace routes. This could widen the domestic feedstock base and reduce dependence on imported high-purity iron.

Hertha currently operates a one-tonne-per-day demonstration plant in Conroe, Texas. It describes the site as the largest demonstration-scale single-step steelmaking facility in the US. Ore is sourced domestically from Minnesota, and the pilot facility is already producing material that meets customer specifications.

The planned high-purity iron facility will also produce trial steel products. Hertha sees the project as a stepping stone toward broader iron and steelmaking capacity, with a target of reaching roughly 500,000 t/yr of production within four to five years.

Cost competitiveness will be critical. Hertha says it does not plan to rely on a domestic supply premium. Instead, it aims to compete economically by replacing metallurgical coal with natural gas and electricity while using lower-cost ore feedstocks.

This claim matters because strategic materials projects often struggle when policy support is stronger than market economics. If Hertha can produce competitively without relying on premium pricing, the company could build a more durable position in both defense and commercial supply chains.

Hertha Metals CEO Laureen Meroueh

Domestic Iron Production Links Magnets, Electrical Steel and Clean Manufacturing

High-purity iron has strategic importance beyond NdFeB magnets. The material can also support electrical steel used in transformers, electric vehicle motors and other electromagnetic applications. These sectors are becoming more important as grid investment, electrification and domestic manufacturing policy expand.

The project also fits a wider shift in iron and steel markets. Traditional blast furnace production depends heavily on metallurgical coal and higher-emission processing routes. Meanwhile, demand for higher-grade iron inputs suitable for lower-carbon steelmaking is expected to rise as producers shift toward cleaner technologies.

Hertha’s process aims to sit inside that transition. By using electricity, natural gas or hydrogen, the company is positioning FLEXHERS as a lower-carbon alternative to legacy ironmaking. The ability to process lower-grade ore and fines could also help revive domestic iron production without requiring only premium feedstocks.

The US steel industry has increasingly focused on scrap-fed electric arc furnaces. That model supports recycling and lower emissions, but it does not fully solve domestic iron supply for high-purity applications. Magnets, electrical steel and advanced components often need controlled chemistry that scrap alone cannot easily provide.

This is where Hertha’s strategy becomes industrially relevant. The company is not only proposing another steel plant. It is targeting a specific materials gap between critical minerals policy, rare earth magnet manufacturing and advanced steelmaking.

Competition from subsidized overseas producers remains a risk. Hertha says it can compete on cost, but Chinese industrial support and below-cost exports could still challenge domestic producers. This is why policy, procurement rules and long-term customer commitments may become important even if the production technology works.

The company has not disclosed financing details, future fundraising plans or offtake agreements. That leaves open questions about capital structure, customer readiness and the pace of commercial scale-up. However, the 2027 DFARS deadline gives the project a clear market catalyst.

The broader implication is that rare earth magnet supply security cannot be solved by rare earth mining alone. The full chain includes ore, separation, metal conversion, alloying, magnet manufacturing and supporting inputs such as high-purity iron. Any weak link can create dependence.

Hertha Metals is betting that the next phase of US critical materials policy will recognise that reality. If the company can scale production, secure customers and maintain cost discipline, high-purity iron could become a small but essential piece of the domestic magnet supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hertha Metals highlights a critical point often missed in rare earth policy: magnet security depends on more than rare earths. High-purity iron, electrical steel and alloy inputs will become strategic materials if US defense and electrification supply chains must move away from China.