Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Sale Falters as Preferred Buyer Exits

Bell Bay

Bell Bay manganese smelter faces renewed uncertainty after Adroit Capital ended exclusive negotiations to acquire the 290,000 t/yr Tasmanian manganese alloy operation. The investment firm had led the preferred bidding consortium selected by administrator Ernst & Young.

Bell Bay manganese smelter has been offline since May 2025, when former owner GFG Alliance halted production because of feedstock shortages. The failed sale process now raises fresh questions over whether Australia's only manganese alloy smelter can return to operation.

Bell Bay manganese smelter remains strategically important because it produces ferro-manganese and silico-manganese used in steelmaking. A prolonged closure would increase Australia's dependence on imported manganese alloys.

The federal and Tasmanian governments have already provided A$9.6mn this year to maintain employee wages while the administration process continues.

Buyer Exit Deepens Restart Uncertainty

Adroit Capital was named preferred bidder last month, and Tasmania had expected the transaction to close by August.

The end of exclusive negotiations removes the clearest near-term path toward restarting the plant. Ernst & Young will now need to identify another buyer, restructure the sale process or consider alternative options for the asset.

The smelter's history already highlights the difficulty of maintaining manganese alloy production in Australia. GFG Alliance shut the operation after feedstock shortages disrupted production.

The Tasmanian government subsequently provided financing to support a restart, but GFG defaulted on that loan in January 2026. The asset then entered administration.

This sequence shows that ownership change alone may not solve Bell Bay's underlying problems. Any new operator will need reliable manganese ore supply, competitive electricity costs and sustainable alloy margins.

Those factors are especially important because manganese alloy smelting is highly energy intensive and exposed to volatility in both ore and power costs.

Australia Faces Greater Manganese Alloy Import Dependence

Bell Bay is Australia's only domestic producer of manganese alloys, giving the facility significance beyond its individual commercial performance.

Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are essential deoxidising and alloying materials used in construction steel, rail products, automotive steel and other industrial applications.

If Bell Bay remains shut, Australian users will depend more heavily on imported alloys from overseas producers. That increases exposure to freight costs, trade disruption and international supply conditions.

The situation also creates a wider industrial policy problem. Australia has substantial mineral resources, but losing domestic alloy-processing capacity would weaken its ability to capture value further downstream.

Government support so far suggests policymakers recognise the strategic importance of preserving the asset. However, continued public funding cannot substitute indefinitely for a commercially viable operating model.

The next buyer will therefore need to solve the smelter's structural problems rather than simply acquire the facility at a lower price.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adroit's exit shows that Bell Bay's challenge is deeper than finding a buyer. Australia must decide whether strategic manganese alloy capacity justifies the cost of solving feedstock, power and operating economics.

India Manganese Ore Duty Removal Cuts Ferro-Alloy Costs

India Manganese Ore

India manganese ore duty removal will lower raw material costs for domestic ferro-alloy producers after the government scrapped the 2.5% basic customs duty on imported manganese ore and concentrates.

India manganese ore duty removal is expected to reduce producer costs by around 1.25-2.5%, improving margins for silico-manganese and ferro-manganese smelters. The change also makes imported ore more competitive against domestic material.

India manganese ore duty removal comes as alloy producers face pressure from high ore and power costs. Lower import costs could strengthen export competitiveness and encourage producers to increase utilisation where market demand allows.

India imports around 5.5mn-6.5mn t/yr of manganese ore, making overseas supply structurally important to the country's steel and ferro-alloy industry.

Lower Ore Costs Strengthen Ferro-Alloy Producers

South Africa dominates India's manganese ore imports because its high-grade and chemically consistent material performs well in submerged-arc furnaces.

India also imports significant volumes from Gabon, Australia and Ghana. Around 2.03mn t entered the country during the first quarter of 2026.

Removing the customs duty directly improves the economics of imported feedstock. Producers can lower blended ore costs or increase the proportion of higher-grade imported material.

Silico-manganese and ferro-manganese producers should benefit most. These alloys are essential deoxidising and alloying inputs for structural steel, automotive steel, rail products and special steels.

Steel production typically consumes around 6-9kg of manganese per tonne of crude steel, linking ferro-alloy demand closely to Indian steel output.

High input costs had already encouraged some producers to shift from 60-14 silico-manganese toward higher-value 65% grades and 70-75% ferro-manganese.

Lower ore costs could improve the competitiveness of standard grades again while giving producers greater flexibility across their product mix.

The measure could also narrow India's export cost disadvantage against Malaysia. Malaysian ferro-alloy producers benefit from lower electricity costs, but cheaper manganese ore and Indian labour costs could reduce the gap.

Domestic Ore Producers Face Greater Import Competition

The policy creates pressure for domestic manganese miners because cheaper imports will increase buyers' negotiating power.

Moil could face greater competition, particularly from high-grade imported ore used by coastal smelters with easy access to ports.

Domestic prices may increasingly move toward import parity as smelters compare local supply directly with landed overseas material.

This could create inventory pressure for domestic miners if buyers increase the proportion of imported ore in their furnace blends.

However, the impact will vary by location and ore quality. Moil remains competitive for inland customers because domestic freight from ports can offset part of the import advantage.

Its material also remains suitable for applications where very high-grade ore is not required.

The broader policy direction is clear. India is prioritising lower industrial input costs to strengthen steel and manufacturing competitiveness.

Manganese has also been identified alongside lithium, cobalt and nickel under India's National Critical Minerals Mission, increasing its importance in the country's wider supply-chain strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India is choosing downstream competitiveness over protection for domestic ore miners. The biggest beneficiaries will be ferro-alloy producers that can combine cheaper imported manganese with efficient power and higher furnace utilisation.

SMEL Ferro-Alloy Sales Fall as Export Costs and Ore Prices Rise

Shyam Metalics

SMEL ferro-alloy sales declined sharply in May as higher ore prices, Middle East-related logistics costs and weak overseas demand weighed on shipments. Shyam Metalics and Energy sold 16,201t of ferro-alloys during the month, down 18% from a year earlier.

SMEL ferro-alloy sales were also lower than April’s 18,391t, showing that export pressure is affecting near-term momentum. The company said higher raw material costs and more expensive manganese alloy exports contributed to the decline.

SMEL ferro-alloy sales weakness contrasts with more resilient stainless steel demand. This divergence highlights the growing importance of downstream and value-added products in protecting margins when bulk alloy markets weaken.

The company is responding by investing heavily in special bar quality steel, specialty wire rod and downstream stainless steel capacity through projects scheduled for completion by 2029.

Ferro-Alloy Exports Face Cost and Demand Pressure

SMEL’s May ferro-alloy sales fell from 19,869t a year earlier to 16,201t. The decline reflects pressure from both input costs and weaker export economics.

Ore prices have risen sharply, increasing production costs for manganese-based alloys. At the same time, the Middle East conflict has raised freight and export costs, making Indian material less competitive in some overseas markets.

Weak international demand has compounded the problem. Ferro-alloy producers depend heavily on steelmaking activity, so softer orders quickly translate into lower shipments and weaker utilisation.

This is particularly important for manganese alloys, where energy, ore and freight costs all account for a significant share of delivered pricing.

The market environment therefore favours producers with captive raw materials, lower-cost power and stronger domestic customer bases.

Value-Added Steel Becomes More Important to SMEL’s Strategy

SMEL’s stainless steel sales performed better than ferro-alloys, rising by 5.3% year on year to 7,367t in May. However, sales were around 7% lower than April.

Aluminium showed greater weakness, with sales falling by 25% year on year to 1,570t. Volumes were also 17% lower than the previous month.

The mixed performance reinforces SMEL’s decision to increase exposure to higher-margin products. The company is investing another Rs27bn to expand special bar quality and specialty wire rod capacity.

It is also expanding its downstream stainless steel complex, aiming to increase the share of higher-value products in its portfolio.

These projects should reduce dependence on lower-margin commodity sales and give SMEL greater exposure to automotive, engineering and industrial customers.

The strategy is important because bulk ferro-alloy markets can be highly cyclical. Producers with more downstream processing capacity can capture additional value and better manage weak export conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s May results show why Indian metals producers are moving downstream. Higher ore, freight and energy costs are compressing bulk alloy margins, making value-added steel products increasingly important for earnings stability.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2024 as Russian Supply Dries Up

Ferro Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports rose to their highest level in more than a year in the first quarter, supported by robust demand from steel mills and cored-wire producers. The increase also reflected a market shift as Russian receipts effectively disappeared and European suppliers captured more share.

EU ferro-titanium imports reached 8,431t in January-March, up 19% from a year earlier and 13% from the previous quarter. The total was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2024, when Russian material was still moving into the bloc in significant volumes.

EU ferro-titanium imports were concentrated in Estonia, Poland, Latvia and the UK. These destinations took a combined 5,119t, equal to 61% of the first-quarter total, up from 51% a year earlier.

The figures show how sanctions, scrap availability and steel-sector buying are reshaping the European ferro-titanium market. Demand has improved, but the supply base has changed sharply.

Sanctions Redirect Russian Ferro-Titanium Toward Asia

Russian ferro-titanium flows into Europe have effectively stopped since sanctions were imposed on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. That removed a major historical source of supply from the European market.

Before sanctions, the EU was still receiving 2,000-3,000 t/quarter of Russian ferro-titanium. Those flows helped lift imports to 11,661t in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Now, Russian material has shifted toward Asia. China has become the dominant buyer of Russian ferro-titanium, with imports from Russia rising to a record 3,855t in the first quarter, up from 816t a year earlier.

This shift matters because Europe still needs titanium units for steel and cored-wire production. Ferro-titanium is used to add titanium to steel, where it supports deoxidation, grain refinement and stabilisation in selected grades.

Market participants have said some Russian material may still be reaching Europe through third countries in circumvention of sanctions. That claim highlights the continuing importance of origin control, documentation and compliance in ferro-alloy trade.

Non-EU imports, excluding the UK, reached 1,388t in the first quarter, up from 1,179t a year earlier. India was the leading non-EU supplier, shipping 426t, double the year-earlier level but down 38% from the previous quarter.

Scrap Tightness Supports Ferro-Titanium Price Recovery

Titanium scrap availability became another pressure point. EU imports of unsanctioned titanium scrap from Russia fell sharply to just 37t in the first quarter, all into Germany.

This is a major change for the Baltic route. Estonia imported no Russian titanium scrap in the quarter, compared with an average of 601 t/quarter last year.

Lower scrap availability matters because titanium scrap is a key feedstock for ferro-titanium production. Tighter scrap supply can raise production costs and reduce prompt availability for alloy producers.

European standard-grade ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.70-4.97/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in the first quarter, down from $5.68-6.02/kg Ti a year earlier. However, the market strengthened through the quarter.

Prices opened at $4.30-4.60/kg Ti and closed at $4.85-5.30/kg Ti. The rally was initially triggered by the insolvency of Austrian trader LL-Resources, although its ferro-titanium subsidiary LLR-Ecotech said operations were unaffected.

The price rise then gained support from stronger mill demand under long-term contracts, prompt buying and quarterly spot enquiries. Tighter titanium scrap availability also added cost pressure.

The rally continued into the second quarter, suggesting that buyers remain sensitive to reduced Russian availability and constrained scrap flows.

For Europe, the key issue is not only volume. The region must secure compliant titanium units for steelmaking while avoiding sanctioned material and managing higher feedstock costs.

The first-quarter data therefore point to a more regionalised ferro-titanium market. Europe is relying more on domestic and approved suppliers, while Russian material is increasingly absorbed in Asia.

EU, Fe-Ti Import

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s ferro-titanium market is becoming a compliance-driven supply chain. The real advantage will go to producers that can secure clean titanium scrap, prove origin and deliver reliable alloy supply into steel and cored-wire demand.

IMFA Ferro-Chrome Capacity Expansion to Make It India’s Largest Producer

Ferro-Chrome

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity is set to nearly double by the end of 2026 as Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys combines a Tata Steel asset acquisition with new furnace capacity at Kalinganagar in Odisha. The expansion will lift installed capacity beyond 500,000 t/yr, positioning IMFA as India’s largest ferro-chrome producer.

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity growth comes at a strategic moment for stainless steel raw materials. Ferro-chrome is a critical alloying input for stainless steel, and India’s rising stainless output requires more secure domestic alloy supply.

IMFA ferro-chrome capacity expansion also strengthens the company’s global position. Once complete, IMFA expects to rank among the foremost ferro-chrome producers worldwide.

The company is expanding while also restructuring its power mix. This matters because electricity is the dominant cost in ferro-chrome smelting and can decide competitiveness during weak pricing cycles.

Kalinganagar Expansion Strengthens India’s Ferro-Chrome Base

IMFA’s greenfield Kalinganagar project, known as KNR 1, will increase installed capacity to 384,000 t/yr by September from 284,000 t/yr at present. Pre-commissioning of the first furnace is scheduled for June.

The company also brought all four furnaces at its 100,000 t/yr Kalinganagar facility, known as KNR 2, on stream in March 2026. Together with the Tata Steel acquisition, these additions will significantly expand India’s domestic ferro-chrome platform.

This is industrially important because ferro-chrome supply links directly to stainless steel competitiveness. Domestic alloy availability can reduce exposure to imported material, freight costs and external supply shocks.

IMFA produced 267,300t of ferro-chrome in the April 2025-March 2026 financial year, up 2.7% from a year earlier. Sales rose by 3.9% to around 270,125t.

Quarterly output reached 68,506t in January-March, the strongest level in the period. That operating momentum gives IMFA a stronger base before the larger capacity increase takes full effect.

Captive Ore and Renewable Power Improve Cost Position

IMFA’s captive chrome ore position is central to its expansion strategy. Chrome ore output from its mines exceeded 800,000t for the first time, reaching 810,612t in 2025-26, up 15.5% from a year earlier.

Underground mining accounted for 536,000t of output. This captive supply gives IMFA better raw material control as it scales ferro-chrome production.

Energy strategy is the other major factor. IMFA plans to start 70MWp of hybrid renewable energy supply in July-September and has a binding deal for another 65MWp by June 2027.

Renewable power is expected to account for about 40% of the company’s power mix by March 2027. That shift could improve cost stability and reduce exposure to volatile power markets.

The move also supports lower-carbon ferro-alloy production. Stainless steel customers are increasingly watching the emissions profile of upstream alloy inputs, especially as export markets apply stricter carbon and sustainability rules.

IMFA also said it is exploring opportunities in critical minerals. That signals a broader growth strategy beyond ferro-chrome, although the core business remains the main focus.

For India, the expansion strengthens domestic alloy security. For IMFA, the challenge will be to ramp capacity while protecting margins, securing power and maintaining chrome ore supply discipline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IMFA’s expansion shows that ferro-alloys are becoming part of India’s industrial security agenda, not just a stainless steel input. The real advantage will come from combining scale, captive chrome ore and lower-cost renewable power before global ferro-chrome competition tightens again.

Liberty Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Sale Aims to Preserve Australia’s Alloy Capacity

Liberty

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter assets in Tasmania are set to be sold to a consortium led by investment firm Adroit Capital, giving Australia’s only manganese alloy producer a potential path out of administration. The 290,000 t/yr smelter is a strategic asset for steelmaking, defence and construction supply chains.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter operations have been under pressure since the site was shut in May 2025 by its former owner, GFG Alliance, because of feedstock shortages and maintenance requirements. The smelter produces ferro-manganese and silico-manganese, both essential alloying materials for steel production.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter continuity is important because Australia has limited domestic ferro-alloy capacity. Losing the site permanently would increase dependence on imported manganese alloys for steelmakers and industrial users.

The Australian federal and Tasmanian state governments have now committed A$5mn to cover staff salaries until early August while administrator Ernst & Young finalises the sale with Adroit. That follows A$4.6mn in earlier support during April-May, bringing total recent government support to A$9.6mn.

Government Support Buys Time for a Strategic Smelter

The government funding gives the administrator more time to complete the transaction while preserving workforce continuity. This is critical because skilled labour, furnace knowledge and site readiness can be difficult to rebuild after a prolonged shutdown.

Tasmania’s government had already tried to support a restart under GFG. It provided a A$20mn bridging loan after the smelter was suspended in May 2025, helping operations resume in August.

However, GFG defaulted on that loan in January 2026, leading to the smelter entering administration. The sale process now shifts responsibility to a new investor group that must address the site’s core operating problems.

The key challenge remains feedstock security. Manganese alloy smelting depends on reliable ore supply, power costs, furnace availability and customer demand from steelmakers.

If Adroit can secure ore and stabilise operations, the smelter could again support domestic steel supply chains. If not, the asset risks remaining a strategic facility without a sustainable operating model.

Manganese Alloy Security Matters for Steelmaking

Manganese alloys are essential in steelmaking because they improve strength, toughness and deoxidation performance. Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are widely used across construction steel, infrastructure, machinery and defence-related steel applications.

Australia’s reliance on a single domestic manganese alloy producer makes Liberty Bell Bay more important than its nameplate capacity alone suggests. The smelter represents industrial optionality in a market where supply security is becoming more politically relevant.

The sale also comes as global ferro-alloy markets face volatility from weak steel demand, feedstock constraints and trade measures. Domestic production can reduce exposure to import disruptions, but only if operating costs remain competitive.

For Tasmania, the site also carries regional employment and industrial policy importance. Keeping the workforce funded through the sale process reduces the risk of losing technical capability before a new owner takes control.

The Adroit-led consortium will need more than financial interest. It must prove that the smelter can operate with stable raw material supply, disciplined maintenance and a credible sales strategy.

The broader lesson is clear. Strategic metals capacity cannot survive on government support alone. It needs a bankable operating model that links feedstock, power, customers and long-term demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Liberty Bell Bay sale is a test of whether Australia can preserve critical ferro-alloy capacity before it disappears. Manganese alloy supply may not attract the same attention as lithium or rare earths, but steelmaking security depends on assets like this.

EU Silico-Manganese Prices Unlikely to Rally Despite Filled Quotas

Silico-Manganese

EU silico-manganese prices are unlikely to rise sharply despite the rapid exhaustion of tariff-free import quotas for Indian material and supply from other developing countries. Weak end-user demand, existing stock coverage and summer maintenance at steel mills are limiting the price impact.

EU silico-manganese prices did move higher after the third safeguard quota period opened on 18 May. Importers tried to pass duty costs through to consumers, lifting prices by €30/t on 21 May.

EU silico-manganese prices still face resistance from buyers. Many large steel consumers already secured annual contracts or imported material before the safeguards took effect, leaving limited spot demand in the market.

The result is a tighter import structure without a strong demand shock. Quota exhaustion is raising costs for importers, but it has not yet created the kind of physical shortage needed to force a major price rally.

Filled TRQs Raise Import Costs but Demand Remains Covered

Importers submitted 41,993t of Indian silico-manganese for clearance on the first day of the new quota period. That exceeded the available Indian quota of 31,959t by 10,034t.

Only 76% of the submitted Indian material was allocated inside the quota. The rest had to clear as out-of-quota material, exposing importers to higher costs under the EU safeguard mechanism.

The safeguard system combines country-specific tariff-rate quotas with a variable duty on excess imports. The duty is calculated against a price threshold, effectively creating a minimum import price.

For silico-manganese, that minimum import price is €1,392/t. This is well above the recent European delivered market assessment of €1,080-1,130/t.

That gap creates immediate pressure on traders holding out-of-quota material. One trader said the duty impact on part of his cargo would raise his average import cost by about €120/t across the full shipment.

Some suppliers have increased offers by around €50/t and are holding material while they assess market direction. But buyers are not accepting higher prices quickly because cheaper unsold units remain available in smaller volumes.

The timing also weakens the price case. European mills typically reduce activity during the summer maintenance period, lowering near-term consumption of manganese alloys.

Safeguards Shift Trade Flows While CBAM Alters Alloy Choices

The EU introduced safeguards on silico-manganese, ferro-manganese, ferro-silicon and silico-magnesium in November to protect European alloy producers from lower-cost third-country imports.

Silico-manganese has attracted more import activity than some other alloys. The quota for “other countries” was exhausted in both the second and third periods, while the current 18,956t quota was filled by 21 May.

Norway’s quota has also been closely watched. Its second-period quota was exhausted in April, but the third-period quota still had a large remaining balance as of 22 May.

Zambian material also remains available within quota. This gives importers some alternative supply routes, even as India and other-country quotas fill quickly.

Ferro-silicon and ferro-manganese quotas have not been filled. This shows that the safeguard impact is uneven across the ferro-alloy market.

CBAM is also changing trading behaviour. Silico-manganese is not subject to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, while high-carbon ferro-manganese carries additional administrative and compliance burdens.

That has made some traders more comfortable importing silico-manganese than ferro-manganese. Even when prices are close, lower bureaucracy can make silico-manganese more attractive from a trading perspective.

Ferro-manganese prices are receiving some support from CBAM-related caution, but liquidity and demand appear stronger in silico-manganese. This could keep trade flows focused on silico-manganese until buyers’ inventories fall.

The main market impact may therefore arrive in autumn. By then, end-user stocks could be lower, summer maintenance will have passed and importers may face tighter replacement costs under the safeguard regime.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU safeguard system is already raising import costs, but weak steel demand is preventing a sharp silico-manganese rally. The real test will come after summer, when mills return and buyers need to replace stocks under a more expensive import structure.

Indonesia NPI Export Exemption Eases Nickel Trade Fears but Leaves Policy Risk

Nickel pig iron

Indonesia NPI export exemption has eased immediate concerns in the nickel market after sources said nickel pig iron will not need to be exported through Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia. The clarification reduces near-term disruption risk for Indonesia’s dominant nickel alloy product.

Indonesia NPI export exemption matters because more than 90% of Indonesia’s nickel-alloy output is nickel pig iron. NPI is mainly used in stainless steel production and forms the backbone of Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming model.

Indonesia NPI export exemption does not remove all uncertainty. Ferro-nickel exports are still expected to be traded through DSI, while the industry lacks an official definition that clearly separates ferro-nickel from NPI.

That ambiguity is important because ferro-nickel and NPI share the same HS code under global and Indonesian trade frameworks. Market participants usually distinguish them by nickel content, with ferro-nickel typically above 20% nickel and NPI usually around 10-14%.

NPI Exclusion Protects Indonesia’s Core Nickel Flow

The exclusion of NPI from the DSI export requirement is commercially significant. NPI is Indonesia’s largest nickel product by volume and a critical feedstock for stainless steelmakers.

If NPI had been included, the rule could have disrupted contracts, pricing, payment flows and export execution across a major share of Indonesia’s nickel industry. That risk has now been reduced, at least for the near term.

The clarification also helps Chinese and regional stainless steel buyers. These customers rely heavily on Indonesian NPI because it offers a cost-effective alternative to pure nickel metal in stainless production.

However, the inclusion of ferro-nickel still matters. A small number of Indonesian smelters produce higher-nickel ferro-nickel, and those exports may now face a more centralised transaction structure through DSI.

The policy could therefore split Indonesia’s nickel alloy market into two regulatory paths. NPI would remain outside the new state export channel, while ferro-nickel would fall under tighter government control.

The risk is classification. Without a formal technical definition, exporters may face uncertainty over which products qualify as NPI and which are treated as ferro-nickel.

Policy Clarity Still Matters for Investment

Indonesia announced on 20 May that exports of key commodities, initially including palm oil, coal and ferro-alloys, must be routed through DSI. The aim is to centralise control over strategic commodity exports.

The nickel industry welcomed the NPI clarification, but investors remain cautious. Indonesia’s mining and metals policy has changed frequently, creating uncertainty around timing, scope and implementation.

This matters because downstream nickel projects require large capital commitments. Smelters, matte converters, HPAL plants and battery-material facilities all need stable rules before investors can justify long payback periods.

The DSI rule follows other policy shifts, including changes to ore pricing, royalty plans, export levies and RKAB approval processes. Even when policies support state revenue and downstreaming, sudden changes can raise financing risk.

Indonesia still holds enormous leverage in global nickel. Its dominance in NPI and stainless-linked supply gives Jakarta significant influence over trade flows and pricing.

But policy predictability is now becoming just as important as resource control. If rules change too quickly or remain unclear, investors may delay decisions even when Indonesia remains the strongest nickel platform.

The NPI exemption is therefore a useful correction. But the market still needs formal definitions, clear transaction rules and stable implementation before confidence fully returns.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia has reduced immediate nickel disruption by excluding NPI from the DSI export channel. But the ferro-nickel ambiguity shows that policy risk remains embedded in the country’s downstreaming model.

Indonesia Metals Investment Risk Rises as Policy Shifts Cloud Downstreaming

Indonesia Nickel mining

Indonesia metals investment faces growing uncertainty as frequent policy changes test foreign investor confidence in the country’s mining and processing sector. Jakarta’s latest move to route key commodity exports through a new state-owned enterprise adds another layer of complexity to an already policy-heavy operating environment.

Indonesia metals investment has been supported for years by the country’s downstreaming strategy, especially in nickel. However, investors are now watching whether sudden changes in royalties, export levies, price floors, export proceeds rules and RKAB approvals could weaken the economics of new projects.

Indonesia metals investment remains strategically important because the country dominates global nickel supply and is attracting major aluminium, battery, ferro-alloy and electric vehicle-related projects. But policy direction and policy predictability are not the same thing.

The government’s natural resource strategy is clear. It wants tighter export control, higher state revenue, more domestic value addition and greater retention of foreign exchange. The main concern is how quickly and broadly those rules are implemented.

DSI Export Rule Adds New Uncertainty to Nickel Downstreaming

The planned use of Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia as a state export channel is the clearest sign of Jakarta’s tightening control over commodity flows. The policy initially targets palm oil, coal and ferro-alloys, but nickel market participants expect broader implications.

Nickel pig iron is likely to be affected because it is a ferro-alloy. That matters because Indonesia’s nickel growth has been built around NPI, stainless steel, nickel matte and battery-material processing.

A centralised export model could reshape how contracts, pricing and payments are handled. If DSI becomes the sole counterparty for overseas buyers, private producers and traders may lose commercial flexibility.

The policy follows several other changes. Indonesia has revised government-mandated price floors, required export proceeds to remain in domestic banks for at least 12 months, adjusted royalty rates, introduced export levy plans and modified the RKAB application process.

These measures all fit Jakarta’s broader resource nationalism agenda. But rapid revisions make it harder for companies to model long-term returns.

Nickel producers have already faced uncertainty over royalty and export duty proposals. The government announced planned changes in April, then postponed them in May before the intended June start date.

This pattern may show that officials are willing to listen to industry feedback. But it also suggests that policy design and communication remain incomplete before major measures are announced.

The risk is that investors begin pricing Indonesia as a less predictable jurisdiction. That could slow downstreaming projects, especially those requiring large capital commitments, long payback periods and imported technology.

Several battery and nickel projects have already faced delays from feedstock constraints, regulatory approvals or weaker market conditions. These include projects linked to Chengtun, Hanrui and LG Energy Solution.

Some operations have also cut or halted production because of delayed or insufficient RKAB approvals. This shows how permitting and quota decisions can directly affect physical output.

Aluminium and Manganese Projects Face Spillover Risk

The market’s immediate focus is nickel, but the risk is wider. If the DSI model expands across more strategic commodities, aluminium and manganese investors could also face new pricing and export constraints.

Chinese aluminium producers have been increasing overseas investment in Indonesia since China imposed a 45mn t/yr cap on domestic primary aluminium capacity. Indonesia offers power access, industrial park infrastructure and proximity to Asian growth markets.

Tsingshan is building an 800,000 t/yr aluminium smelter in Indonesia. Nanshan Aluminium plans to expand its Bintan Industrial Park facility to 500,000 t/yr, while Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia commissioned a 500,000 t/yr smelter in 2025.

Some Chinese companies are also considering downstream aluminium processing projects in Indonesia. These investments would move the country beyond smelting and into fabricated products.

But discounted sales from Chinese-invested Indonesian smelters could become harder if aluminium exports are eventually routed through DSI. A state-controlled export platform may not allow the same commercial discounting that buyers currently use.

That would raise costs for Chinese buyers and could change the economics of Indonesia-based aluminium supply chains. It could also affect trade flows if producers lose flexibility in pricing and contract structures.

Manganese may also be exposed. Tsingshan has invested in Indonesian manganese production, with six lines and combined capacity of 100,000 t/yr.

The broader lesson is that Indonesia’s downstreaming success depends on credibility as well as control. Investors can adapt to higher royalties, stricter export rules or local processing requirements if implementation is clear and stable.

Uncertainty is more damaging than regulation itself. If companies cannot predict which products will be covered, how prices will be set or when rules will take effect, they may delay capital spending.

Indonesia still has enormous strategic leverage in nickel and growing relevance in aluminium, manganese and battery materials. But maintaining that position will require policy discipline, transparent consultation and practical implementation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia is not retreating from downstreaming; it is tightening state control over the value chain. The danger is that too many rapid policy shifts could weaken the investment confidence needed to build the very processing base Jakarta wants to protect.

SMEL Wagon Production Plan Marks Downstream Shift for Indian Long Steel

SMEL

SMEL wagon production will begin in September as Shyam Metalics and Energy prepares to commission a greenfield railway wagon manufacturing plant at Kharagpur, West Bengal. The move marks the Indian integrated steelmaker’s first entry into rolling stock and a rare downstream step by an Indian long steel producer.

SMEL wagon production is strategically important because it connects steelmaking more directly with railway infrastructure, logistics equipment and government-backed transport demand. The project gives the company a route to capture more value beyond commodity steel products.

SMEL wagon production will be developed through Ramsarup Industries, a step-down subsidiary in which Shyam Metalics holds 60% and Super Smelters owns 40%. The plant will initially produce 2,400 wagons per year under phase one, with a second phase planned to add the same capacity.

The facility will manufacture flat, open, box, hopper-covered, tank and specialised wagons. Capital expenditure is budgeted at 2bn rupees, with Rs220mn spent by March 2026.

Railway Wagons Deepen SMEL’s Steel Value Chain

The wagon project gives SMEL a higher-value outlet for steel products at a time when Indian infrastructure and freight transport demand remain important growth channels. Railway wagons require steel, fabrication capability, engineering control and customer qualification, making the business more complex than ordinary long steel sales.

The move also gives SMEL exposure to transport equipment manufacturing. This can improve margins if the company integrates steel supply, fabrication and finished wagon production effectively.

Ramsarup’s industrial platform is also expanding upstream and downstream. Phase one of its blast furnace, sinter and oxygen units has already been commissioned.

Planned phase two additions include an 85,000 t/yr steel wire-drawing line, a 100,000 t/yr blast furnace, 40MW of captive power and an 800,000 t/yr special bar quality mill.

The special bar quality mill is particularly relevant. SBQ products serve automotive, engineering, machinery, fasteners, rail and industrial components, giving SMEL another path toward higher-specification steel markets.

This strategy suggests that SMEL is not only adding capacity. It is trying to move into more engineered and application-specific products where customer relationships, product quality and downstream integration carry greater value.

Stainless and Aluminium Foil Strengthen Higher-Margin Portfolio

SMEL is also expanding in stainless steel and aluminium foil, giving the group a broader non-carbon steel platform. These segments provide exposure to higher-value materials used in consumer goods, industrial equipment, packaging and precision applications.

At Sambalpur in Odisha, SMEL plans to increase stainless steel capacity from 0.5mn t/yr to 0.6mn t/yr. The expansion will include a cold-rolling mill, precision cold-rolling mill, hot-rolling annealing and pickling line, and bright annealing line.

All units are targeted for commissioning by March 2029 at a cost of Rs18bn. The investment will help SMEL move further into value-added stainless products rather than relying only on melting or basic output.

Stainless steel delivered the strongest performance among SMEL’s non-carbon segments in the 2026 financial year. Realisations rose by 6.7% to Rs140,443/t, while volumes increased by 11.5% to 94,102t.

Aluminium foil achieved the highest per-tonne realisation in SMEL’s portfolio. Realisations rose by 10.4% to Rs379,805/t, while volumes were broadly flat at 21,620t because of capacity constraints ahead of expansion.

Speciality alloys were weaker. Full-year realisations slipped by 2.2% to Rs93,837/t despite volumes rising by 11.9% to 223,494t, reflecting softer ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese and silico-manganese markets through much of the year.

The overall direction is clear. SMEL is building a more diversified materials platform across railway wagons, stainless steel, aluminium foil, specialty alloys, wire drawing and SBQ products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s wagon project shows how Indian steelmakers are moving downstream to protect margins and capture infrastructure-linked demand. The real opportunity lies in combining steel production with engineered products, stainless processing and high-realisation aluminium foil.

SMEL Wagon Production Plan Marks Downstream Shift for Indian Long Steel

SMEL

SMEL wagon production will begin in September as Shyam Metalics and Energy prepares to commission a greenfield railway wagon manufacturing plant at Kharagpur, West Bengal. The move marks the Indian integrated steelmaker’s first entry into rolling stock and a rare downstream step by an Indian long steel producer.

SMEL wagon production is strategically important because it connects steelmaking more directly with railway infrastructure, logistics equipment and government-backed transport demand. The project gives the company a route to capture more value beyond commodity steel products.

SMEL wagon production will be developed through Ramsarup Industries, a step-down subsidiary in which Shyam Metalics holds 60% and Super Smelters owns 40%. The plant will initially produce 2,400 wagons per year under phase one, with a second phase planned to add the same capacity.

The facility will manufacture flat, open, box, hopper-covered, tank and specialised wagons. Capital expenditure is budgeted at 2bn rupees, with Rs220mn spent by March 2026.

Railway Wagons Deepen SMEL’s Steel Value Chain

The wagon project gives SMEL a higher-value outlet for steel products at a time when Indian infrastructure and freight transport demand remain important growth channels. Railway wagons require steel, fabrication capability, engineering control and customer qualification, making the business more complex than ordinary long steel sales.

The move also gives SMEL exposure to transport equipment manufacturing. This can improve margins if the company integrates steel supply, fabrication and finished wagon production effectively.

Ramsarup’s industrial platform is also expanding upstream and downstream. Phase one of its blast furnace, sinter and oxygen units has already been commissioned.

Planned phase two additions include an 85,000 t/yr steel wire-drawing line, a 100,000 t/yr blast furnace, 40MW of captive power and an 800,000 t/yr special bar quality mill.

The special bar quality mill is particularly relevant. SBQ products serve automotive, engineering, machinery, fasteners, rail and industrial components, giving SMEL another path toward higher-specification steel markets.

This strategy suggests that SMEL is not only adding capacity. It is trying to move into more engineered and application-specific products where customer relationships, product quality and downstream integration carry greater value.

Stainless and Aluminium Foil Strengthen Higher-Margin Portfolio

SMEL is also expanding in stainless steel and aluminium foil, giving the group a broader non-carbon steel platform. These segments provide exposure to higher-value materials used in consumer goods, industrial equipment, packaging and precision applications.

At Sambalpur in Odisha, SMEL plans to increase stainless steel capacity from 0.5mn t/yr to 0.6mn t/yr. The expansion will include a cold-rolling mill, precision cold-rolling mill, hot-rolling annealing and pickling line, and bright annealing line.

All units are targeted for commissioning by March 2029 at a cost of Rs18bn. The investment will help SMEL move further into value-added stainless products rather than relying only on melting or basic output.

Stainless steel delivered the strongest performance among SMEL’s non-carbon segments in the 2026 financial year. Realisations rose by 6.7% to Rs140,443/t, while volumes increased by 11.5% to 94,102t.

Aluminium foil achieved the highest per-tonne realisation in SMEL’s portfolio. Realisations rose by 10.4% to Rs379,805/t, while volumes were broadly flat at 21,620t because of capacity constraints ahead of expansion.

Speciality alloys were weaker. Full-year realisations slipped by 2.2% to Rs93,837/t despite volumes rising by 11.9% to 223,494t, reflecting softer ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese and silico-manganese markets through much of the year.

The overall direction is clear. SMEL is building a more diversified materials platform across railway wagons, stainless steel, aluminium foil, specialty alloys, wire drawing and SBQ products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s wagon project shows how Indian steelmakers are moving downstream to protect margins and capture infrastructure-linked demand. The real opportunity lies in combining steel production with engineered products, stainless processing and high-realisation aluminium foil.

China Vanadium Prices Weaken as Supply Rises and Steel Demand Slows

China Vanadium

China vanadium prices are under renewed pressure as higher spot availability, weak alloy demand and softer steel mill tenders weigh on the market. Domestic 98% grade vanadium pentoxide flake prices fell to 82,000-87,000 yuan/t on 8 May, their lowest level since 20 April.

China vanadium prices began to soften in late April after alloy producers slowed purchases and cut procurement bids. Most ferro-vanadium producers lowered feedstock buying levels after steel mill tender prices came in below market expectations.

China vanadium prices are also being pressured by rising output. Domestic vanadium production reached 56,040t of vanadium pentoxide in January-April, up 7.6% from a year earlier.

The market is now facing a classic supply-demand imbalance. Higher vanadium flake and slag production has increased spot availability, while steel-sector demand remains weak and export outlets are slowing.

Higher Flake and Slag Output Increases Spot Availability

China’s vanadium supply increased because stronger earlier prices encouraged producers to lift output from vanadium-bearing steel slag. Vanadium-containing steel slag production rose to 49,320t in January-April, up 8% from a year earlier.

Higher flake prices in the first four months improved margins for slag-based production. Domestic 98% grade vanadium pentoxide flake averaged 80,812 yuan/t ex-works during January-April, up 9.5% from a year earlier.

New capacity has also added pressure. Qinhuangdao Baigong Steel started a 10,000 t/yr vanadium pentoxide flake production line in Hebei province in February.

This additional output arrived just as downstream buying slowed. Major flake suppliers had not finalised some contracts by 8 May, while some alloy producers were buying only limited volumes at lower cash prices.

The increase in spot availability has changed buyer behaviour. Alloy producers are no longer rushing to secure feedstock because they expect further price weakness.

That expectation can reinforce the decline. When buyers delay purchases, sellers face more pressure to reduce offers, especially when inventories rise and steel demand remains poor.

Weak Steel Tenders and Export Slowdown Limit Demand

Ferro-vanadium demand remains the main drag on the vanadium market. Domestic 50% grade ferro-vanadium prices fell to 93,000-94,000 yuan/t ex-works on 8 May, their lowest level since 1 April.

Steel mill tender prices also declined. Prices paid by steelmakers fell to 94,000-95,000 yuan/t delivered, including VAT and payable by acceptance bill, down from late-April levels.

Steelmakers are lowering bids because steel margins remain weak. This is especially important for vanadium because much of its demand comes from alloying in rebar and other steel products.

China’s rebar production fell to 29.54mn t in January-April, down 8.6% from a year earlier, as the real estate slowdown continued to reduce construction-related steel demand.

Steelmakers purchased an estimated 6,865t of vanadium alloys in April, down 17% from a year earlier. This confirms that weaker steel consumption is now feeding directly into lower vanadium alloy demand.

Export conditions are also turning less supportive. China’s vanadium flake exports are expected to decline in the coming months as international production increases.

Canadian producer Largo more than doubled vanadium pentoxide output in the first quarter to 2,616t, supported by higher-grade ore and steadier processing at its Brazilian mine. Russian producer Evraz also started a new 15,000 t/yr vanadium pentoxide flake plant in March and is expected to ramp up by June.

These additions reduce the need for some overseas buyers to rely on Chinese flake. That weakens a potential outlet for excess Chinese supply.

The near-term outlook remains soft. Unless steel mill tenders recover or vanadium exports improve, rising spot availability will likely keep pressure on vanadium pentoxide flake and ferro-vanadium prices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s vanadium market is being hit by the wrong combination: rising supply, weak rebar output and cautious alloy buying. The longer-term battery storage story remains attractive, but near-term pricing still depends heavily on steel demand and feedstock discipline.

Pax Silica Initiative Gains Norway as Western Supply Chains Tighten Around AI and Semiconductors

Pax silica

Pax Silica initiative membership has expanded with Norway joining the US-led framework for artificial intelligence, semiconductors and critical raw materials security. The move adds a European partner with low-carbon power, industrial metals capacity and growing critical minerals relevance.

The Pax Silica initiative has become part of Washington’s effort to reduce dependence on China in critical minerals, semiconductor supply chains and AI infrastructure. Norway’s accession strengthens the coalition’s European minerals, energy and capital base.

The Pax Silica initiative now includes countries with complementary strengths in mining, processing, technology, energy, finance and advanced manufacturing. That mix is important because strategic supply chains increasingly require more than mineral deposits alone.

Norway’s ambassador to the US, Anniken Huitfeldt, is expected to sign the initiative, giving Norway a formal role in a US-backed economic security framework.

Norway Adds Low-Carbon Metals, Capital and Rare Earth Potential

Norway brings several advantages to the coalition. The country has a long-established aluminium and ferro-alloys industry, access to low-carbon power and a growing policy focus on critical raw materials.

Its role has also become more relevant because of work on the Fen rare earth deposit in southern Norway. Rare earths are central to permanent magnets, defence systems, electric motors, wind turbines and advanced electronics.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund also gives the country strategic capital relevance. In critical minerals, financing capacity can be as important as geology because new projects require long development timelines, technical qualification and patient capital.

Norway said Pax Silica could give domestic companies stronger access to advanced technology value chains. This matters for suppliers that want to connect local raw materials, clean power and industrial capabilities with AI, semiconductor and defence-linked markets.

The country is also aligning its wider policy with key partners through the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and European Chips Act. That creates a bridge between European industrial policy and the US-led supply-chain framework.

Supply-Chain Blocs Reshape Mineral Investment Logic

The industrial significance of Pax Silica lies less in immediate metal flows and more in policy direction. Western governments are building supply-chain blocs that link raw materials, processing, capital and end-use manufacturing across allied jurisdictions.

This could affect future investment decisions in rare earths, aluminium, silicon-related materials, battery metals and other inputs tied to semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

The framework also reflects a shift in how critical minerals projects are evaluated. Access to technology partners, downstream customers, public financing and geopolitical alignment may increasingly determine which projects advance.

For Norway, membership strengthens its position in the emerging western critical minerals architecture. For the wider market, it reinforces the idea that supply security is becoming a structured policy goal rather than a simple procurement choice.

This trend will matter for metals producers, refiners, traders and manufacturers. Companies that can operate inside trusted supply-chain blocs may gain better access to capital, offtake support and advanced technology customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Norway’s entry into Pax Silica shows that critical minerals strategy is now merging with AI, semiconductor and economic security policy. The next phase of mineral competition will be defined by blocs that combine geology, capital, clean energy and downstream demand.

Ferroglobe Silicon Shipments Fall as European Plants Face Import Pressure

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon shipments fell in the first quarter after the company suspended production across its European silicon metal plants in October. The decline shows how weak demand and low-priced imports are reshaping Europe’s silicon metal market.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments dropped by 15.9% year on year to 30,533t in January-March. The company later restarted one of two furnaces at its Anglefort plant in France to maintain an EU operating presence.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments remain under pressure because European production costs are still struggling to compete against lower-cost third-country imports. The company warned that the current market structure is no longer viable during a prolonged period of depressed demand.

The issue is strategically important because silicon metal supports aluminium alloys, silicones, solar materials, semiconductors and industrial chemicals. If European smelting capacity continues to close, the region’s downstream industries will become more dependent on imported feedstock.

European Silicon Metal Faces Low-Cost Import Pressure

Ferroglobe said the European silicon metal market remains under pressure from China and Angola. Angola has emerged as a faster-growing supplier into the EU, increasing its market share during the first two months of 2026.

Angola supplied 993t of silicon metal to the EU in February, up by around two-thirds from a year earlier. Its EU market share more than doubled to 3.3% in January-February from 1.5% a year earlier.

This matters because even modest import share gains can influence pricing when demand is weak. European producers with higher energy and operating costs have limited room to absorb lower selling prices.

Ferroglobe has called for the EU to introduce anti-dumping duties on certain third-country suppliers selling at low prices into the bloc. The company made the request after the European Commission excluded silicon metal from last year’s safeguard investigation.

The policy question is now becoming more urgent. Europe wants strategic materials security, but it also needs trade tools that keep domestic production viable when imports undercut regional cost structures.

Without stronger protection or demand recovery, European silicon metal output could remain constrained. That would weaken the region’s ability to support aluminium, chemicals, solar and advanced manufacturing supply chains from local feedstock.

Ferro-Alloy Sales Offset Silicon Weakness

Ferroglobe’s broader first-quarter performance was supported by stronger silicon-based and manganese-based alloy shipments. This helped offset weaker silicon metal volumes.

Shipments of silicon-based alloys rose by 41.6% year on year to 60,674t. The increase was driven by stronger US demand for ferro-silicon.

However, average selling prices for silicon-based alloys fell by 4.9% to $2,016/t. Competitive conditions in the US and South Africa limited pricing power despite stronger volumes.

Manganese-based alloy sales also improved sharply. Shipments rose by 27.5% to 85,743t, supported by recently implemented safeguard measures.

The average selling price for manganese-based alloys increased by 12.8% to $1,250/t because of higher European prices. This shows how trade measures can directly support pricing when regional supply protection is in place.

Ferroglobe’s total sales rose by 13.2% year on year to $347.7mn. The increase came from higher silicon-based and manganese-based alloy volumes, along with stronger manganese alloy pricing.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 112.5% to $3.3mn. The improvement was meaningful, but margins remain thin for a company operating in volatile alloy and silicon markets.

The company is also considering reopening operations in Venezuela. Those assets are close to the US market and could benefit from low-cost energy, raw materials and favourable logistics.

That strategy reflects the changing economics of ferro-alloy and silicon production. Energy cost, trade access, import protection and proximity to customers are becoming more important than legacy European capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s results show that Europe’s silicon metal problem is not only weak demand; it is structural cost exposure against lower-priced imports. If the EU wants domestic critical industrial material capacity, silicon metal may need the same policy seriousness now being applied to batteries, magnets and semiconductors.

Moil Manganese Ore Prices Fall as Indian Steel Demand Weakens

Moil, Manganese Ore

Moil manganese ore prices have been cut by 4% for May as weak downstream steel demand and sluggish export bookings pressure India’s manganese market. The state-owned producer reduced prices across ferro-grade ore, silico-grade ore and fines.

Moil manganese ore prices for ferro-grade material with manganese content of 44% and above, as well as below-44% material, were lowered by 4% from April levels. The cut follows a sharp 17.5% increase in April for ore below 44% manganese content.

Moil manganese ore prices for 25% and 30% silico-grade ore and fines were also reduced by 4% for May. The move reflects a softer market environment in which domestic buyers are cautious and export opportunities remain limited.

The price cut highlights a wider imbalance in India’s manganese ore chain. Lower export demand has pushed more material into the domestic market, creating surplus supply across major trading hubs.

Weak Steel Demand Pressures Ferro-Grade Ore

Ferro-grade manganese ore demand remains tied closely to steel and ferro-alloy production. When steel demand weakens, alloy producers reduce feedstock buying and ore prices come under pressure.

India’s downstream steel market has been sluggish, limiting demand for manganese alloys and the ore used to produce them. This has made buyers more cautious about restocking, especially after the April price increase.

The 4% reduction is therefore a market-clearing move. Moil is adjusting prices to reflect weaker consumer appetite and rising domestic availability.

Export weakness has added further pressure. Reduced overseas bookings mean more ore is staying inside India, increasing competition among suppliers and traders.

This domestic oversupply is especially important for ferro-grade ore. Alloy producers can delay purchases when they expect further weakness, which slows market activity and reinforces downward pressure.

Higher Output Adds to Domestic Supply Overhang

Moil’s production has continued to rise despite weaker demand. The company produced around 164,000t of manganese ore in March 2026, up from 159,000t a year earlier.

Full-year output for April 2025-March 2026 reached 1.9mn t, compared with 1.8mn t in the previous fiscal year. This higher supply has entered a market already facing softer domestic and export demand.

The result is a supply overhang across key trading hubs. Even if production growth is modest, weaker buying can quickly create surplus conditions in the manganese ore market.

For alloy producers, lower ore prices may ease cost pressure. But the benefit depends on whether ferro-manganese and silico-manganese demand recovers enough to support production margins.

For Moil, the challenge is balancing output growth with market absorption. Higher production supports volume targets, but weak demand forces price adjustments when inventories rise.

The May price cut therefore sends a clear signal. India’s manganese ore market needs stronger steel and alloy demand before pricing power can return.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moil’s price cut shows that India’s manganese market is being driven by demand weakness, not raw material scarcity. Until steel and export bookings improve, higher mine output will continue to weigh on ore pricing.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

South32 Manganese Ore Export Prices Fall as China Demand Weakens

South32 Manganese Ore

South32 manganese ore export prices to China have fallen for June shipments as weak alloy demand, ample port inventories and cautious buying pressure the import market. The Australian diversified metals producer lowered offers for both Australian and South African manganese ore, according to Chinese importers.

South32 manganese ore export prices for Australian 42% lumpy ore fell to $5.40/mtu cif China for June delivery. This was down by $0.50/mtu from May.

South32 also reduced its offer for South African 37% manganese ore to $5/mtu cif China. This was down by $0.40/mtu from the previous month.

South32 manganese ore export prices are an important signal for the wider manganese chain because China remains the largest global buyer of seaborne ore. When Chinese alloy plants slow purchases, overseas miners often need to adjust export offers to maintain sales momentum.

Chinese Alloy Weakness Cuts Restocking Appetite

Chinese importers have shown limited interest in restocking manganese ore because inventories remain sufficient and alloy prices are weakening. This has reduced spot buying urgency before the Labour Day holiday on 1-5 May.

Many alloy plants postponed ore feedstock purchases while waiting for clearer market direction after the holiday. This cautious behaviour has weakened the negotiating position of overseas ore suppliers.

The pressure is also visible in Chinese port prices. Australian 44-46% lumpy manganese ore fell to 43-47 yuan/mtu delivery ex quay on 28 April, down from 47-50 yuan/mtu on 31 March.

The decline shows that domestic buyers are not only resisting new import offers. They are also repricing available port material lower as downstream demand fails to improve.

Manganese ore demand is closely linked to ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are used in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, deoxidation and performance.

When steel consumption slows, alloy plants reduce purchasing activity. This immediately affects ore demand because manganese alloy producers are the main consumers of imported ore.

Steel Demand Remains the Main Constraint

The deeper issue is weak steel demand in China. Slower economic growth and subdued construction activity have limited recovery in steel consumption, leaving alloy producers cautious about raw material buying.

Without a stronger steel recovery, manganese alloy prices are likely to remain under pressure. This limits the ability of alloy plants to pay higher ore prices, even when miners try to defend margins.

South32’s price cut also reflects wider seaborne competition. Mining firms outside China need to respond when Chinese buyers have enough stock and are unwilling to chase cargoes.

Australian high-grade lumpy ore usually commands stronger interest because of its quality and processing value. However, even higher-grade material can weaken when alloy margins are poor and port inventories are sufficient.

South African ore also remains exposed to Chinese demand swings. Lower-grade material can face sharper price pressure when buyers reduce procurement and focus only on immediate needs.

For the manganese market, the June price cut suggests that miners are prioritising volume discipline and customer access over holding elevated offers. The next price direction will depend on whether Chinese alloy plants return after the holiday with real restocking demand.

If steel demand remains weak, manganese ore prices could face further downside pressure. If alloy prices stabilise and inventories fall, importers may resume buying, but recovery is likely to be gradual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s price cut shows that the manganese market is being driven by demand absorption, not supply shortage. Until Chinese steel and alloy demand improves, seaborne manganese ore suppliers will remain exposed to cautious restocking and lower port prices.