South32 Gemco Manganese Operations Face Cyclone Narelle Supply Risk

South32, Gemco Manganese

South32 Gemco manganese operations are facing renewed weather-related disruption risk as Cyclone Narelle approaches Groote Eylandt in Australia’s Northern Territory. The company is moving non-essential personnel offsite while monitoring the incoming system with local emergency authorities.

The precautionary move comes as Cyclone Narelle is forecast to pass Groote Eylandt on Saturday afternoon. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to reach category three strength by that time, bringing stronger wind and rain conditions to the island.

South32 Gemco manganese operations are important to the seaborne manganese ore market because Gemco is a major source of high-grade Australian ore. Any operational disruption could affect supply flows into China, where manganese ore demand is closely tied to steel and alloy production.

Groote Eylandt Weather Risk Returns After Cyclone Megan Disruption

Groote Eylandt has already shown how severe weather can affect manganese supply. South32 paused mining operations at Gemco for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan, and manganese exports from the site only resumed in May 2025.

That history makes the latest cyclone warning more significant for the market. Even if the current action is only precautionary, buyers and traders will watch closely for any damage to mining, haulage, port infrastructure, or export schedules.

South32 plans to produce 3.2 million tonnes of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026. Maintaining that output will be important for stabilizing supply after the previous weather-related disruption.

Manganese Ore Market Watches China Demand and Australian Supply

South32 Gemco manganese operations also sit at an important point in the pricing cycle. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/mtu to $5.20/mtu in late January, citing expectations for stronger Chinese demand after the lunar new year holidays.

Cyclone-related uncertainty could add another layer of support if the market sees a risk to Australian export availability. Manganese ore is essential for steelmaking through ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production, so supply interruptions can quickly influence alloy raw material sentiment.

For now, the key issue is whether Cyclone Narelle causes only a short safety response or a broader operational setback. The market will focus on site access, port conditions, and South32’s ability to maintain shipment schedules after the weather system passes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s latest move shows that manganese supply risk is increasingly shaped by weather resilience as much as mine capacity. For steel-linked raw materials, reliable logistics from vulnerable export hubs can become a pricing factor overnight.

Anglo 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Lower Chilean Ore Grades Weigh on Output

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo 2026 copper guidance has been cut as weaker ore grades at Collahuasi reshape the company’s near-term production outlook. Anglo American lowered its 2026 copper guidance to 700,000-760,000 metric tonnes from 760,000-820,000t. The downgrade shows that Anglo 2026 copper guidance is now being driven more by grade reality than by capacity ambition.

The main pressure comes from Chile. Anglo expects copper production at its Chilean operations to fall by an average of 11pc to 390,000-420,000t because of lower-than-expected grades. Peru also faces a smaller downgrade, with guidance cut by 3pc to 310,000-340,000t. As a result, Anglo 2026 copper guidance reflects weakness across both of its main copper regions.

This matters because copper remains central to Anglo’s future value. The company produced 695,000t in 2025, near the lower end of its annual guidance range. Fourth-quarter copper output also dropped 14pc from a year earlier to 169,500t. Therefore, the weaker 2026 view confirms that the company is entering the year from a softer base.

Collahuasi Ore Grades Now Define the Near-Term Copper Story

Collahuasi ore grades are the key reason behind the guidance cut. Lower grades at the Chilean mine are reducing expected production more sharply than previously assumed. That shift matters because Chile remains the largest contributor to Anglo’s copper portfolio. Consequently, even modest grade disappointments can alter the company’s overall copper outlook.

The downgrade also shows how exposed large miners remain to geological variability. Production capacity alone does not guarantee higher output when ore quality weakens. In copper mining, grade is often the most important driver of performance. Therefore, Anglo 2026 copper guidance is a reminder that resource quality still sets the real ceiling.

Anglo Copper Outlook Improves Again After 2026, but Execution Still Matters

Anglo copper outlook beyond 2026 remains more constructive. The company expects total copper production to rise to 750,000-810,000t in 2027 and 790,000-850,000t in 2028. That suggests management still sees the 2026 weakness as temporary rather than structural. However, future recovery will depend on grade performance and operational consistency.

The broader portfolio also shows mixed signals. Manganese ore output rose strongly in 2025 as Gemco returned to normal after cyclone disruption. Nickel production also edged higher, even as Anglo continues trying to exit that business. Meanwhile, the Teck merger is still progressing and could create a top-five global copper producer. As a result, Anglo’s long-term copper strategy remains ambitious even as its 2026 outlook turns more cautious.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This downgrade matters because it cuts through the usual long-term copper optimism with a more immediate geological reality. Anglo still has a strong copper future, but 2026 now looks like a year of grade pressure rather than volume momentum. If Chile does not stabilize, the market may stay cautious even with stronger 2027 and 2028 targets.

South32 exits nickel market with Cerro Matoso sale to Corex

South32

South32 exits nickel market with the sale of Cerro Matoso to Corex. The deal is valued at up to $100 million. It ends South32’s nickel exposure after a strategic review. However, closing requires regulatory approvals and conditions.

Deal structure and recent performance

Corex will pay up to $80 million, linked to future nickel prices. It may pay up to $20 million, tied to project permits. Therefore, proceeds depend on both the market and permitting outcomes.

Cerro Matoso produced 40,600 tonnes of payable nickel in 2023–24. The mine expected 35,000 tonnes in 2024–25, per April guidance. Production results for 2024–25 remain undisclosed.

Strategy shift and market context

South32 exits nickel market to concentrate on copper and zinc growth. Meanwhile, it continues manganese mining in Australia and South Africa. It resumed Gemco exports in May after flood damage earlier in 2024. As a result, portfolio risk tilts toward copper, zinc, and manganese.

Industry peers are also reshaping portfolios under weak nickel prices. Anglo American plans to spin off nickel, coal, and diamonds. Therefore, South32 exits nickel market in line with sector consolidation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Full divestment simplifies South32’s capital allocation and cost focus. Execution risk now centers on closing conditions and handover stability. Watch Corex’s investment plan and ferronickel margins through 2025.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

Manganese Ore Export Prices to China Drop Amid Weaker Demand from Chinese Alloy Importers

Manganese Ore

In response to a slowing demand for manganese ore among Chinese alloy producers, major mining companies outside of China are reducing export prices. French mining giant Eramet Comilog has set its November shipment price for 45% Gabonese lumpy manganese ore at $3.95 per metric tonne unit (mtu) cif China—down $1.05/mtu from October levels.

South African UMK, another large-scale player in manganese production, dropped its price to $3.70/mtu for South African 36% lumpy manganese ore in October, a significant decrease from September’s $4.60/mtu.

Consolidated Minerals (CML), which operates mining ventures in Australia and Ghana, priced its Australian 45% lumpy manganese ore at $4.25/mtu cif China for November. While no comparable data is available for the previous two months, CML’s prices reached $9.30/mtu in August.

The manganese ore market had seen steady price increases since April, but started to decline in September after a halt in operations by South32’s Gemco joint venture due to Tropical Cyclone Megan. These disruptions, coupled with narrower profit margins and reduced outputs at steel mills, led to a decrease in demand and price adjustments.

As of October 10, Australian lumpy manganese ore (44-46% grade) was priced at 42-44 yuan/mtu ($5.93-6.21/mtu) in Chinese markets, significantly lower than the June high of Yn70-73/mtu. The downward trend in the alloy market, along with higher supply from Australian sources, prompted Chinese alloy producers to source ore from alternative markets.

China's Yunnan Jiangnan Halts Manganese Production Amid Environmental Inspections

Chinese manganese producer Yunnan Jiangnan has suspended its daily output of 90-100 tons of manganese flake in response to recent environmental inspections. According to a company source, the timeline for resuming production remains uncertain. The smelter, situated in Wenshan city in southwest China's Yunnan province, boasts an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of manganese flake.

The suspension could impact not only Yunnan Jiangnan but also other smelters across China. The country's manganese market is experiencing tight supply conditions, contributing to the recent surge in manganese ore prices over the past few weeks.

Compounding the situation, South32's GEMCO mine in Australia has also halted production due to cyclone damage, further destabilizing the manganese market. This disruption has led to decreased manganese ore inventories at ports and smelters, fueling expectations of continued price increases among market participants.

The production halt at Yunnan Jiangnan is closely tied to the Chinese government's intensified environmental regulations, which are expected to similarly affect other industries.